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Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

This dissertation contains three essays on the impact of unexpected adverse events on student outcomes. All three attempt to identify causal inference using plausibly exogenous shocks and econometric tools, applied to rich administrative data.  In Chapter 2, I present evidence of the causal effects of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake on tertiary enrolment and completion. Using the shock of the 2011 earthquake on high school students in the Canterbury region, I estimate the effect of the earthquake on a range of outcomes including tertiary enrolment, degree completion and wages. I find the earthquake causes a substantial increase in tertiary enrolment, particularly for low ability high school leavers from damaged schools. However, I find no evidence that low ability students induced by the earthquake complete a degree on time.  In Chapter 3, I identify the impact of repeat disaster exposure on university performance, by comparing outcomes for students who experience their first earthquake while in university, to outcomes for students with prior earthquake exposure. Using a triple-differences estimation strategy with individual-by-year fixed effects, I identify a precise null effect, suggesting that previous experience of earthquakes is not predictive of response to an additional shock two years later.  The final chapter investigates the impact of injuries sustained in university on academic performance and wages, using administrative data including no-fault insurance claims, emergency department attendance and hospital admissions, linked with tertiary enrolment. I find injuries, including minor injuries, have a negative effect on re-enrolment, degree completion and grades in university.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

New Zealand has experienced several strong earthquakes in its history. While an earthquake cannot be prevented from occurring, planning can reduce its consequences when it does occur. This dissertation research examines various aspects of disaster risk management policy in Aotearoa New Zealand. Chapter 2 develops a method to rank and prioritise high-rise buildings for seismic retrofitting in Wellington, the earthquake-prone capital city of New Zealand. These buildings pose risks to Wellington’s long-term seismic resilience that are of clear concern to current and future policymakers. The prioritization strategy we propose, based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, considers a variety of data on each building, including not only its structural characteristics, but also its location, its economic value to the city, and its social importance to the community around it. The study demonstrates how different measures, within four general criteria – life safety, geo-spatial location of the building, its economic role, and its socio-cultural role – can be operationalized into a viable framework for determining retrofitting/demolition policy priorities. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 analyse the Residential Red Zone (RRR) program that was implemented in Christchurch after the 2011 earthquake. In the program, approximately 8,000 homeowners were told that their homes were no longer permittable, and they were bought by the government (through the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority). Chapter 3 examines the subjective wellbeing of the RRR residents (around 16000 people) after they were forced to move. We consider three indicators of subjective wellbeing: quality of life, stress, and emotional wellbeing. We found that demographic factors, health conditions, and the type of government compensation the residents accepted, were all significant determinants of the wellbeing of the Red Zone residents. More social relations, better financial circumstances, and the perception of better government communication were also all associated positively with a higher quality of life, less stress, and higher emotional wellbeing. Chapter 4 concentrates on the impact of this managed retreat program on RRR residents’ income. We use individual-level comprehensive, administrative, panel data from Canterbury, and difference in difference evaluation method to explore the effects of displacement on Red Zone residential residents. We found that compared to non-relocated neighbours, the displaced people experience a significant initial decrease in their wages and salaries, and their total income. The impacts vary with time spent in the Red Zone and when they moved away. Wages and salaries of those who were red-zoned and moved in 2011 were reduced by 8%, and 5.4% for those who moved in 2012. Females faced greater decreases in wages and salaries, and total income, than males. There were no discernible impacts of the relocation on people’s self-employment income.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Questions to Ministers 1. RAHUI KATENE to the Associate Minister of Health: When was the Core Clinical Committee established in Kawerau and how are iwi involved in the membership and functions of this joint taskforce to tackle youth suicide? 2. DAVID BENNETT to the Minister for Infrastructure: What progress is the Government making on its infrastructure investment programme? 3. Hon ANNETTE KING to the Prime Minister: What advice did he rely on when commenting in Australia on the safety of the Pike River coal mine? 4. NICKY WAGNER to the Minister of Corrections: What support has the Corrections Department provided in Canterbury since the first earthquake struck in September last year? 5. Hon DAVID PARKER to the Minister of Finance: Does he believe that in the current economic environment kiwi companies should be considered favourably with regards to big government contracts? 6. TIM MACINDOE to the Minister for Social Development and Employment: What parenting support is being made available for first-time parents? 7. Hon TREVOR MALLARD to the Prime Minister: In light of the answer given on his behalf to Oral Question No 2 on 15 June, is it his opinion that real average after-tax wages do not go up when high-income earners get tax cuts and low-income workers lose their jobs? 8. PAUL QUINN to the Minister of Customs: What recent reports has he received on developments to technology at the border? 9. GRANT ROBERTSON to the Minister of Health: Has sufficient funding been allocated in Vote Health to meet the increasing costs facing organisations working in the health sector? 10. KEVIN HAGUE to the Minister of Labour: Was she satisfied before the first explosion in the Pike River coal mine, that her Government had done all it could to ensure the workplace safety of people working in underground coal mines; if so, why? 11. COLIN KING to the Minister of Fisheries: What recent announcement has he made about the recovery of the western hoki stock? 12. DARIEN FENTON to the Minister of Labour: Does she stand by all her answers to Oral Question No 10 yesterday?

Audio, Radio New Zealand

MAGGIE BARRY to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received on the economy? Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS to the Minister of Māori Affairs: Is he satisfied with the financial management of the Whānau Integration, Innovation and Engagement Fund, administered by Te Puni Kōkiri? Hon DAVID PARKER to the Minister of Finance: What is the projected growth, if any, of New Zealand’s international liabilities under this Government’s policies, and what are the components of those liabilities? EUGENIE SAGE to the Minister for the Environment: Is water quality in New Zealand being negatively affected by livestock in rivers and lakes? Dr CAM CALDER to the Minister of Corrections: What progress has been made on the proposal to build a public-private prison at Wiri? Hon PHIL GOFF to the Minister of Foreign Affairs: Will proposed changes to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade undermine its ability to carry out its role in promoting New Zealand’s trade, security and consular interests? LOUISE UPSTON to the Minister of Women's Affairs: What commitment is the Government willing to make to increase the number of women on State sector boards? DENIS O'ROURKE to the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery: Is he satisfied with the rate of progress of the Christchurch earthquake recovery? Dr KENNEDY GRAHAM to the Minister for Climate Change Issues: Did New Zealand meet the 28 February deadline for its submission to the United Nations on increasing the level of ambition in global greenhouse gas mitigation, as agreed by parties in the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action; if not, why not? DARIEN FENTON to the Minister of Labour: Does she stand by her answer to Written Question No 00916 (2012) that “the Government is focused on building a more competitive economy, which will lead to more jobs and higher wages”? JOHN HAYES to the Minister of Defence: What updates can he give on new Defence Force capability? CLARE CURRAN to the Minister of Broadcasting: Is he confident that current Government broadcasting policy upholds the standards of an independent and free press; if so, why?  

Audio, Radio New Zealand

DAVID SHEARER to the Prime Minister: Is it still a fundamental purpose of his Government to narrow the wage gap between New Zealand and Australia, and to grow local wages in New Zealand? TODD McCLAY to the Minister of Finance: What recent reports has he received on the economy? Hon DAVID PARKER to the Minister of Finance: In dollar terms, what is the shortfall in the tax-take for the nine months to March revealed in yesterday’s Financial Statements compared to October’s pre-election update? Dr RUSSEL NORMAN to the Minister of Finance: How much has been raised to date by the Earthquake Kiwi Bonds and, at this rate, how many years will it take to cover the Government’s estimated $5.5 billion liability resulting from the Canterbury earthquakes? Hon TAU HENARE to the Minister for Social Development: How will Budget 2012 provide greater support for young people most at risk of long-term welfare dependency? Hon CLAYTON COSGROVE to the Minister for State Owned Enterprises: Does he stand by the Prime Minister’s statement regarding asset sales that “We are not going to do anything tricky there”? Dr JIAN YANG to the Associate Minister of Health: How is the Government expanding its programme to reduce rheumatic fever in vulnerable communities? Hon ANNETTE KING to the Minister of Housing: Does he stand by all his comments regarding housing? JULIE ANNE GENTER to the Minister of Transport: What is the plan to pay for the Government’s transport expenditure given that the Ministry of Transport’s Briefing to the Incoming Minister warns of a funding shortfall of $4.9 billion if high oil prices and low GDP growth continue? MARK MITCHELL to the Minister for Economic Development: How is the Government improving value for money in its procurement of services for the public sector? DARIEN FENTON to the Minister of Labour: Does she stand by her statement that “I do not want to see unnecessary change for change’s sake. Rather I am looking to put in place pragmatic solutions as we implement our manifesto commitments and let employers, employees and business focus on what they do best.”? Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS to the Prime Minister: Does he still have confidence in the Minister for Social Development and the Associate Ministers for Social Development; if so, why?  

Audio, Radio New Zealand

PHIL TWYFORD to the Minister for Building and Construction: Does he agree with Mainfreight founder and Chairman Bruce Plested that housing is a “social disgrace”, that the market cannot sort out this problem, and that real leadership and intestinal fortitude is needed now? JONATHAN YOUNG to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received on real after-tax wages rising in New Zealand? CHRIS HIPKINS to the Minister of Education: Will she apologise on behalf of the Government for the flawed handling of the Canterbury school mergers and closures after the 2011 earthquakes; if not, why not? ANDREW BAYLY to the Minister for Building and Construction: What progress has the Government made in improving the tenancy laws and guidance for dealing with the problem of methamphetamine testing and contamination? CARMEL SEPULONI to the Associate Minister for Social Housing: What motels has the Government purchased in response to the increased emergency housing demand, and how much has this cost? RON MARK to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements on the Clutha-Southland electorate office issue even if facts known to him make doing so extraordinarily difficult? MAUREEN PUGH to the Minister of Corrections: How is Budget 2017 investing in rehabilitation and reintegration outcomes for offenders? Hon DAVID PARKER to the Minister of Local Government: Does she agree with the Prime Minister’s answer yesterday that drinking-water contamination in Havelock North was “about local government performance and overseeing ratepayer-funded assets whose purpose is to deliver clean and healthy water to its local people. The extensive inquiry into that incident was warranted by widespread illness in the area ... it is about local body performance in overseeing their clean water system”? BRETT HUDSON to the Minister of Local Government: What recent announcements has she made regarding Wellington’s resilience to natural hazards? JULIE ANNE GENTER to the Minister of Transport: Will the Government start building rail to the airport sooner if Auckland hosts the next America’s Cup regatta or will Aucklanders still have to wait 30 years? STUART NASH to the Minister of Police: Does she have any concerns about any of the results of the New Zealand Police Workplace Survey 2017; if so, what in particular? ALASTAIR SCOTT to the Associate Minister of Education: What recent announcements has he made to improve school infrastructure in the Wairarapa?

Audio, Radio New Zealand

PAUL GOLDSMITH to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received on progress in lifting New Zealand’s household savings and reducing household debt? EUGENIE SAGE to the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery: Did the advice he has received on Christchurch City Council assets contemplate a sell off or sell down of shares in companies supervised by Christchurch City Holdings Ltd or of other council assets; if so, which ones? Hon DAVID PARKER to the Minister of Finance: Does he stand by his answer to yesterday’s primary question “as I understand it, there are no regional statistics that specifically isolate the number of people leaving any particular region to move overseas” and has the Treasury reported to him the existence of official statistics on permanent and long-term migration compiled by local council area and region? SCOTT SIMPSON to the Minister for Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment: What changes is the Government making to improve results from industry training? Hon LIANNE DALZIEL to the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery: Which of the assets identified by CERA in response to his request has he ruled out asking Christchurch City Council to sell? KATRINA SHANKS to the Minister of Justice: What changes is she making to improve the Family Court? Le'aufa'amulia ASENATI LOLE-TAYLOR to the Minister for Whānau Ora: Does she stand by her statement that “I don’t object to any vulnerable family receiving Whānau Ora support, because that’s what the money is for”? Hon ANNETTE KING to the Minister of Housing: Does he stand by all his comments on housing; if not, why not? Dr KENNEDY GRAHAM to the Minister of Foreign Affairs: What is the total number and cost of uncontested contracts given by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade to external consultants in the last two financial years? MARK MITCHELL to the Minister for Communications and Information Technology: Has she received any reports on the progress of the Government’s Ultra-Fast Broadband and Rural Broadband Initiatives? DARIEN FENTON to the Minister of Labour: Does she stand by her statement regarding foreign chartered fishing vessels “If breaches of labour law occur – such as underpayment of wages or illegal deductions or breaches of the Code of Practice, the Department of Labour will be able to investigate them and take action”? NICKY WAGNER to the Minister for the Environment: What recent announcements has she made in relation to the Waste Minimisation Fund?