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Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Tsunami have the potential to cause significant disruptions to society, including damage to infrastructure, critical to the every-day operation of society. Effective risk management is required to reduce the potential tsunami impacts to them. Christchurch city, situated on the eastern coast of New Zealand’s South Island, is exposed to a number of far-field tsunami hazards. Although the tsunami hazard has been well identified for Christchurch city infrastructure, the likely impacts have not been well constrained. To support effective risk management a credible and realistic infrastructure impact model is required to inform risk management planning. The objectives of this thesis are to assess the impacts on Christchurch city infrastructure from a credible, hypothetical far-field tsunami scenario. To achieve this an impact assessment process is adopted, using tsunami hazard and exposure measures to determine asset vulnerability and subsequent impacts. However, the thesis identified a number of knowledge gaps in infrastructure vulnerability to tsunami. The thesis addresses this by using two approaches: a tsunami damage matrix; and the development of tsunami fragility functions. The tsunami damage matrix pools together tsunami impacts on infrastructure literature, and post-event field observations. It represents the most comprehensive ‘look-up’ resource for tsunami impacts to infrastructure to date. This damage matrix can inform the assessment of tsunami impacts on Christchurch city infrastructure by providing a measure of damage likelihood at various hazard intensities. A more robust approach to tsunami vulnerability of infrastructure are fragility functions, which are also developed in this thesis. These were based on post-event tsunami surveys of the 2011 ‘Tohoku’ earthquake tsunami in Japan. The fragility functions are limited to road and bridge infrastructure, but represent the highest resolution measure of vulnerability for the given assets. As well as providing a measure of damage likelihood for a given tsunami hazard intensity, these also indicate a level of asset damage. The impact assessment process, and synthesized vulnerability measures, are used to run tsunami impact models for Christchurch infrastructure to determine the probability of asset damage occurring and to determine if impact will reach or exceed a given damage state. The models suggest that infrastructure damage is likely to occur in areas exposed to tsunami inundation in this scenario, with significant damage identified for low elevation roads and bridges. The results are presented and discussed in the context of the risk management framework, with emphasis on using risk assessment to inform risk treatment, monitoring and review. In summary, this thesis A) advances tsunami vulnerability and impact assessment methodologies for infrastructure and B) provides a tsunami impact assessment framework for Christchurch city infrastructure which will inform infrastructure tsunami risk management for planners, emergency managers and lifelines groups.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Recent tsunami events have highlighted the importance of effective tsunami risk management strategies (including land-use planning, structural and natural mitigation, warning systems, education and evacuation planning). However, the rarity of tsunami means that empirical data concerning reactions to tsunami warnings and evacuation behaviour is rare when compared to findings for evacuations from other hazards. More knowledge is required to document the full evacuation process, including responses to warnings, pre-evacuation actions, evacuation dynamics, and the return home. Tsunami evacuation modelling has the potential to inform evidence-based tsunami risk planning and response. However, to date, tsunami evacuation models have largely focused on the timings of evacuations, rather than behaviours of those evacuating. In this research, survey data was gathered from coastal communities in Banks Peninsula and Christchurch, New Zealand, relating to behaviours and actions during the November 14th 2016 Kaikōura earthquake tsunami. Survey questions asked about immediate actions following the earthquake shaking, reactions to tsunami warnings, pre-evacuation actions, evacuation dynamics and details on congestion. This data was analysed to characterise trends and identify factors that influenced evacuation actions and behaviour, and was further used to develop a realistic evacuation model prototype to evaluate the capacity of the roading network in Banks Peninsula during a tsunami evacuation. The evacuation model incorporated tsunami risk management strategies that have been implemented by local authorities, and exposure and vulnerability data, alongside the empirical data collected from the survey. This research enhances knowledge of tsunami evacuation behaviour and reactions to tsunami warnings, and can be used to refine evacuation planning to ensure that people can evacuate efficiently, thereby reducing their tsunami exposure and personal risk.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Recent global tsunami events have highlighted the importance of effective tsunami risk management strategies (including land-use planning, structural and natural defences, warning systems, education and evacuation measures). However, the rarity of tsunami means that empirical data concerning reactions to tsunami warnings and tsunami evacuation behaviour is rare when compared to findings about evacuations to avoid other sources of hazard. To date empirical research into tsunami evacuations has focused on evacuation rates, rather than other aspects of the evacuation process. More knowledge is required about responses to warnings, pre-evacuation actions, evacuation dynamics and the return home after evacuations. Tsunami evacuation modelling has the potential to inform evidence-based tsunami risk planning and response. However to date tsunami evacuation models have largely focused on timings of evacuations, rather than evacuation behaviours. This Masters research uses a New Zealand case study to reduce both of these knowledge gaps. Qualitative survey data was gathered from populations across coastal communities in Banks Peninsula and Christchurch, New Zealand, required to evacuate due to the tsunami generated by the November 14th 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake. Survey questions asked about reactions to tsunami warnings, actions taken prior to evacuating and movements during the 2016 tsunami evacuation. This data was analysed to characterise trends and identify factors that influenced evacuation actions and behaviour. Finally, it was used to develop an evacuation model for Banks Peninsula. Where appropriate, the modelling inputs were informed by the survey data. Three key findings were identified from the results of the evacuation behaviour survey. Although 38% of the total survey respondents identified the earthquake shaking as a natural cue for the tsunami, most relied on receiving official warnings, including sirens, to prompt evacuations. Respondents sought further official information to inform their evacuation decisions, with 39% of respondents delaying their evacuation in order to do so. Finally, 96% of total respondents evacuated by car. This led to congestion, particularly in more densely populated Christchurch city suburbs. Prior to this research, evacuation modelling had not been completed for Banks Peninsula. The results of the modelling showed that if evacuees know how to respond to tsunami warnings and where and how to evacuate, there are no issues. However, if there are poor conditions, including if people do not evacuate immediately, if there are issues with the roading network, or if people do not know where or how to evacuate, evacuation times increase with there being more bottlenecks leading out of the evacuation zones. The results of this thesis highlight the importance of effective tsunami education and evacuation planning. Reducing exposure to tsunami risk through prompt evacuation relies on knowledge of how to interpret tsunami warnings, and when, where and how to evacuate. Recommendations from this research outline the need for public education and engagement, and the incorporation of evacuation signage, information boards and evacuation drills. Overall these findings provide more comprehensive picture of tsunami evacuation behaviour and decision making based on empirical data from a recent evacuation, which can be used to improve tsunami risk management strategies. This empirical data can also be used to inform evacuation modelling to improve the accuracy and realism of the evacuation models.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Cartoons about political and social issues in New Zealand and overseas. The cartoon has the words 'Tsunami Warning cancelled' in the centre. Above are the words 'The end is nigh... insurance running out! No more cover!' Below the word 'cancelled' are the words 'We have reinsurance!' Context - Civil Defence has cancelled a tsunami warning after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck off the Kermadec Islands this morning (7 July 2011) The tsunami image is used to illustrate the problems that could arise from lack of insurance in Christchurch. When their policies run out on 30 June Earthquake-hit Christchurch and Waimakariri councils are in danger of having no property insurance because as the CEO of Civic Assurance, which insures most councils, says, 'the company cannot buy reinsurance'. There was also a potential problem for home-owners when AMI Insurance, the largest insurer of homes in Christchurch, was threatening insolvency. However, AMI has announced that it has re-insurance cover for earthquakes and other natural disasters from tomorrow (1 July 2011) for the next year. The Government feared AMI Insurance's directors would wind up the company affecting a huge section of New Zealand's insurance market and derail the reconstruction of Christchurch, official documents confirm. AMI said it had doubled its cover for the year to June 2012 after three large quakes in the year to June 2011. (Stuff 30 June 2011) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Red Cross aid worker Rosemarie North is in the Banten province of Java where authorities have lifted the alert level for the Anak Krakatau volcano to its second-highest level. She has worked on and off for the Red Cross since 2003 in all kinds of situations, including post-conflict in Sierra Leone, landslides in the Philippines and Papua New Guinea, refugee camps in Chad, earthquakes in Nepal and Christchurch, and tsunamis in Southeast Asia and Samoa. [image_crop:72149:full]

Audio, Radio New Zealand

After the devastating effects on Christchurch, we are all aware of the damage earthquakes can cause. But in New Zealand, a tsunami could be just as damaging. University of Auckland engineers Asaad Shamseldin and PhD student Reza Shafiei are creating waves in the lab to work out how safe our buildings are, if a tsunami hits. Ruth Beran goes to visit them.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The cartoon shows a man, a woman and a dog all yelling with fright. Refers to the series of severe aftershocks that again rocked Christchurch on January 2nd. The largest was a magnitude-5.5 shake shortly before 6am. All were centred at sea off New Brighton. Mayor Bob Parker said that fear that larger quakes could be triggered had been raised by residents, but the tsunami threat was "highly unlikely". Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Canterbury novelist Joanna Orwin has a new, futurist story of a New Zealand changed by cataclysmic volcanoes and tsunami, Sacrifice. And we hear about some of the stories in a post-earthquake Christchurch anthology, Tales for Canterbury.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

National Manager Special Operations, New Zealand Fire Service, who lead the Urban Search and Rescue Teams in the aftermath of the Christchurch earthquake. He then lead the New Zealand USAR team which travelled to Northern Japan to assist after the earthquake and tsunami there.