We estimate the causal effects of a large unanticipated natural disaster on high schoolers’ university enrolment decisions and subsequent medium-term labour market outcomes. Using national administrative data after a destructive earthquake in New Zealand, we estimate that the disaster raises tertiary education enrolment of recent high school graduates by 6.1 percentage points. The effects are most pronounced for males, students who are academically weak relative to their peers, and students from schools directly damaged by the disaster. As relatively low ability males are overrepresented in sectors of the labour market helped by the earthquake, greater demand for university may stem from permanent changes in deeper behavioural parameters such as risk aversion or time preference, rather than as a coping response to poor economic opportunities.
Home address-based school zoning regulations are widely used in many countries as one means of selecting pupils and estimating future enrolment. However, there is little research regarding an alternative system of zoning for parents’ place of employment. Previous research has failed to analyse potential impacts from workplace-based zoning, including negating the effects of chain migration theory and settlement patterns to facilitate cultural integration, promoting the physical and mental wellbeing of families by enabling their close proximity during the day, as well as positive results concerning a volatile real estate market. As the modern family more often consists of one or both parents working full-time, the requirement of children to attend school near their home may not be as reasonably convenient as near their parents’ workplace. A case study was performed on one primary school in Christchurch, consisting of surveys and interviews of school stakeholders, including parents and staff, along with GIS mapping of school locations. This found deeper motivations for choosing a primary school, including a preference for cultural integration and the desire to school children under 14 years near their parents’ place of employment in case of illness or earthquake. These data suggest that the advantages of workplace-based zoning may be worth considering, and this thesis creates a framework for the Ministry of Education to implement this initiative in a pilot programme for primary schools in Christchurch.
