1. Background and Objectives This poster presents results from ground motion simulations of small-to-moderate magnitude (3.5≤Mw≤5.0) earthquake events in the Canterbury, New Zealand region using the Graves and Pitarka (2010,2015) methodology. Subsequent investigation of systematic ground motion effects highlights the prediction bias in the simulations which are also benchmarked against empirical ground motion models (e.g. Bradley (2013)). In this study, 144 earthquake ruptures, modelled as point sources, are considered with 1924 quality-assured ground motions recorded across 45 strong motion stations throughout the Canterbury region, as shown in Figure 1. The majority of sources are Mw≥4.0 and have centroid depth (CD) 10km or shallower. Earthquake source descriptions were obtained from the GeoNet New Zealand earthquake catalogue. The ground motion simulations were performed within a computational domain of 140km x 120km x 46km with a finite difference grid spacing of 0.1km. The low-frequency (LF) simulations utilize the 3D Canterbury Velocity Model while the high-frequency (HF) simulations utilize a generic regional 1D velocity model. In the LF simulations, a minimum shear wave velocity of 500m/s is enforced, yielding a maximum frequency of 1.0Hz.
This poster discusses several possible approaches by which the nonlinear response of surficial soils can be explicitly modelled in physics-based ground motion simulations, focusing on the relative advantages and limitations of the various methodologies. These methods include fully-coupled 3D simulation models that directly allow soil nonlinearity in surficial soils, the domain reduction method for decomposing the physical domain into multiple subdomains for separate simulation, conventional site response analysis uncoupled from the simulations, and finally, the use of simple empirically based site amplification factors We provide the methodology for an ongoing study to explicitly incorporate soil nonlinearity into hybrid broadband simulations of the 2010-2011 Canterbury, New Zealand earthquakes.
Background This study examines the performance of site response analysis via nonlinear total-stress 1D wave-propagation for modelling site effects in physics-based ground motion simulations of the 2010-2011 Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence. This approach allows for explicit modeling of 3D ground motion phenomena at the regional scale, as well as detailed nonlinear site effects at the local scale. The approach is compared to a more commonly used empirical VS30 (30 m time-averaged shear wave velocity)-based method for computing site amplification as proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2010, 2015), and to empirical ground motion prediction via a ground motion model (GMM).
© 2017 The Royal Society of New Zealand. This paper discusses simulated ground motion intensity, and its underlying modelling assumptions, for great earthquakes on the Alpine Fault. The simulations utilise the latest understanding of wave propagation physics, kinematic earthquake rupture descriptions and the three-dimensional nature of the Earth's crust in the South Island of New Zealand. The effect of hypocentre location is explicitly examined, which is found to lead to significant differences in ground motion intensities (quantified in the form of peak ground velocity, PGV) over the northern half and southwest of the South Island. Comparison with previously adopted empirical ground motion models also illustrates that the simulations, which explicitly model rupture directivity and basin-generated surface waves, lead to notably larger PGV amplitudes than the empirical predictions in the northern half of the South Island and Canterbury. The simulations performed in this paper have been adopted, as one possible ground motion prediction, in the ‘Project AF8’ Civil Defence Emergency Management exercise scenario. The similarity of the modelled ground motion features with those observed in recent worldwide earthquakes as well as similar simulations in other regions, and the notably higher simulated amplitudes than those from empirical predictions, may warrant a re-examination of regional impact assessments for major Alpine Fault earthquakes.
In this paper, we perform hybrid broadband (0-10 Hz) ground motion simulations for the ten most significant events (Mw 4.7-7.1) in the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. Taking advantage of having repeated recordings at same stations, we validate our simulations using both recordings and an empirically-developed ground motion prediction equation (GMPE). The simulation clearly captures the sedimentary basin amplification and the rupture directivity effects. Quantitative comparisons of the simulations with both recordings and the GMPE, as well as analyses of the total residuals (indicating model bias) show that simulations perform better than the empirical GMPE, especially for long period. To scrutinize the ground motion variability, we partitioned the total residuals into different components. The total residual appears to be unbiased, and the use of a 3D velocity structure reduces the long period systematic bias particularly for stations located close to the Banks Peninsula volcanic area.
This dissertation addresses a diverse range of applied aspects in ground motion simulation validation via the response of complex structures. In particular, the following topics are addressed: (i) the investigation of similarity between recorded and simulated ground motions using code-based 3D irregular structural response analysis, (ii) the development of a framework for ground motion simulations validation to identify the cause of differences between paired observed and simulated dataset, and (iii) the illustration of the process of using simulations for seismic performance-based assessment. The application of simulated ground motions is evaluated for utilisation in engineering practice by considering responses of 3D irregular structures. Validation is performed in a code-based context when the NZS1170.5 (NZS1170.5:2004, 2004) provisions are followed for response history analysis. Two real buildings designed by engineers and physically constructed in Christchurch before the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence are considered. The responses are compared when the buildings are subjected to 40 scaled recorded and their subsequent simulated ground motions selected from 22 February 2011 Christchurch. The similarity of recorded and simulated responses is examined using statistical methods such as bootstrapping and hypothesis testing to determine whether the differences are statistically significant. The findings demonstrate the applicability of simulated ground motion when the code-based approach is followed in response history analysis. A conceptual framework is developed to link the differences between the structural response subjected to simulated and recorded ground motions to the differences in their corresponding intensity measures. This framework allows the variability to be partitioned into the proportion that can be “explained” by the differences in ground motion intensity measures and the remaining “unexplained” variability that can be attributed to different complexities such as dynamic phasing of multi-mode response, nonlinearity, and torsion. The application of this framework is examined through a hierarchy of structures reflecting a range of complexity from single-degree-of-freedom to 3D multi-degree-of-freedom systems with different materials, dynamic properties, and structural systems. The study results suggest the areas that ground motion simulation should focus on to improve simulations by prioritising the ground motion intensity measures that most clearly account for the discrepancies in simple to complex structural responses. Three approaches are presented to consider recorded or simulated ground motions within the seismic performance-based assessment framework. Considering the applications of ground motions in hazard and response history analyses, different pathways in utilising ground motions in both areas are explored. Recorded ground motions are drawn from a global database (i.e., NGA-West2 Ancheta et al., 2014). The NZ CyberShake dataset is used to obtain simulations. Advanced ground motion selection techniques (i.e., generalized conditional intensity measure, GCIM) are used for ground motion selection at a few intensity levels. The comparison is performed by investigating the response of an example structure (i.e., 12-storey reinforced concrete special moment frame) located in South Island, NZ. Results are compared and contrasted in terms of hazard, groundmotion selection, structural responses, demand hazard, and collapse risk, then, the probable reasons for differences are discussed. The findings from this study highlight the present opportunities and shortcomings in using simulations in risk assessment. i
We present ground motion simulations of the Porters Pass (PP) fault in the Canterbury region of New Zealand; a major active source near Christchurch city. The active segment of the PP fault has an inferred length of 82 km and a mostly strike-slip sense of movement. The PP fault slip makes up approximately 10% of the total 37 mm/yr margin-parallel plate motion and also comprises a significant proportion of the total strain budget in regional tectonics. Given that the closest segment of the fault is less than 45 km from Christchurch city, the PP fault is crucial for accurate earthquake hazard assessment for this major population centre. We have employed the hybrid simulation methodology of Graves and Pitarka (2010, 2015), which combines low (f<1 Hz) and high (f>1 Hz) frequencies into a broadband spectrum. We have used validations from three moderate magnitude events (𝑀𝑤4.6 Sept 04, 2010; 𝑀𝑤4.6 Nov 06, 2010; 𝑀𝑤4.9 Apr 29, 2011) to build confidence for the 𝑀𝑤 > 7 PP simulations. Thus far, our simulations include multiple rupture scenarios which test the impacts of hypocentre location and the finite-fault stochastic rupture representation of the source itself. In particular, we have identified the need to use location-specific 1D 𝑉𝑠/𝑉𝑝 models for the high frequency part of the simulations to better match observations.
Our poster will present on-going QuakeCoRE-founded work on strong motion seismology for Dunedin-Mosgiel area, focusing on ground motion simulations for Dunedin Central Business District (CBD). Source modelling and ground motion simulations are being carried out using the SCEC (Southern California Earthquakes Center) Broad Band simulation Platform (BBP). The platform computes broadband (0-10 Hz) seismograms for earthquakes and was first implemented at the University of Otago in 2016. As large earthquakes has not been experienced in Dunedin in the time of period of instrumental recording, user-specified scenario simulations are of great value. The Akatore Fault, the most active fault in Otago and closest major fault to Dunedin, is the source focused on in the present study. Simulations for various Akatore Fault source scenarios are run and presented. Path and site effects are key components considered in the simulation process. A 1D shear wave velocity profile is required by SCEC BBP, and this is being generated to represent the Akatore-to-CBD path and site within the BBP. A 3D shear velocity model, with high resolution within Dunedin CBD, is being developed in parallel with this study (see Sangster et al. poster). This model will be the basis for developing a 3D shear wave velocity model for greater Dunedin-Mosgiel area for future ground motion simulations, using Canterbury software (currently under development).
This dissertation addresses a diverse range of topics in the physics-based broadband ground motion simulation, with a focus on New Zealand applications. In particular the following topics are addressed: the methodology and computational implementation of a New Zealand Velocity Model for broadband ground motion simulation; generalised parametric functions and spatial correlations for seismic velocities in the Canterbury, New Zealand region from surface-wave-based site characterisation; and ground motion simulations of Hope Fault earthquakes. The paragraphs below outline each contribution in more detail. A necessary component in physics-based ground motion simulation is a 3D model which details the seismic velocities in the region of interest. Here a velocity model construction methodology, its computational implementation, and application in the construction of a New Zealand velocity model for use in physics-based broadband ground motion simulation are presented. The methodology utilises multiple datasets spanning different length scales, which is enabled via the use of modular sub-regions, geologic surfaces, and parametric representations of crustal velocity. A number of efficiency-related workflows to decrease the overall computational construction time are employed, while maintaining the flexibility and extensibility to incorporate additional datasets and re- fined velocity parameterizations as they become available. The model comprises explicit representations of the Canterbury, Wellington, Nelson-Tasman, Kaikoura, Marlborough, Waiau, Hanmer and Cheviot sedimentary basins embedded within a regional travel-time tomography-based velocity model for the shallow crust and provides the means to conduct ground motion simulations throughout New Zealand for the first time. Recently developed deep shear-wave velocity profiles in Canterbury enabled models that better characterise the velocity structure within geologic layers of the Canterbury sedimentary basin to be developed. Here the development of depth- and Vs30-dependent para-metric velocity and spatial correlation models to characterise shear-wave velocities within the geologic layers of the Canterbury sedimentary basin are presented. The models utilise data from 22 shear-wave velocity profiles of up to 2.5km depth (derived from surface wave analysis) juxtaposed with models which detail the three-dimensional structure of the geologic formations in the Canterbury sedimentary basin. Parametric velocity equations are presented for Fine Grained Sediments, Gravels, and Tertiary layer groupings. Spatial correlations were developed and applied to generate three-dimensional stochastic velocity perturbations. Collectively, these models enable seismic velocities to be realistically represented for applications such as 3D ground motion and site response simulations. Lastly the New Zealand velocity model is applied to simulate ground motions for a Mw7.51 rupture of the Hope Fault using a physics-based simulation methodology and a 3D crustal velocity model of New Zealand. The simulation methodology was validated for use in the region through comparison with observations for a suite of historic small magnitude earthquakes located proximal to the Hope Fault. Simulations are compared with conventionally utilised empirical ground motion models, with simulated peak ground velocities being notably higher in regions with modelled sedimentary basins. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken where the source characteristics of magnitude, stress parameter, hypocentre location and kinematic slip distribution were varied and an analysis of their effect on ground motion intensities is presented. It was found that the magnitude and stress parameter strongly influenced long and short period ground motion amplitudes, respectively. Ground motion intensities for the Hope Fault scenario are compared with the 2016 Kaikoura Mw7.8 earthquake, it was found that the Kaikoura earthquake produced stronger motions along the eastern South Island, while the Hope Fault scenario resulted in stronger motions immediately West of the near-fault region. The simulated ground motions for this scenario complement prior empirically-based estimates and are informative for mitigation and emergency planning purposes.
This study examines the performance of nonlinear total-stress wave-propagation site response analysis for modelling site effects in physics-based ground motion simulations of the 2010-2011 Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence. This approach allows for explicit modeling of 3-dimensional ground motion phenomena at the regional scale, as well as detailed site effects and soil nonlinearity at the local scale. The approach is compared to a more commonly used empirical VS30 (30 m time-averaged shear wave velocity)-based method for computing site amplification as proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2010, 2015).
Validation is an essential step to assess the applicability of simulated ground motions for utilization in engineering practice, and a comprehensive analysis should include both simple intensity measures (PGA, SA, etc), as well as the seismic response of a range of complex systems obtained by response history analysis. In order to enable a spectrum of complex structural systems to be considered in systematic validation of ground motion simulations in a routine fashion, an automated workflow was developed. Such a workflow enables validation of simulated ground motions in terms of different complex model responses by considering various ground motion sets and different ground motion simulation methods. The automated workflow converts the complex validation process into a routine one by providing a platform to perform the validation process promptly as a built-in process of simulation post-processing. As a case study, validation of simulated ground motions was investigated via the automated workflow by comparing the dynamic responses of three steel special moment frame (SMRF) subjected to the 40 observed and 40 simulated ground motions of 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. The seismic responses of the structures are principally quantified via the peak floor acceleration and maximum inter-storey drift ratio. Overall, the results indicate a general agreement in seismic demands obtained using the recorded and simulated ensembles of ground motions and provide further evidence that simulated ground motions can be used in code-based structural performance assessments in-place of, or in combination with, ensembles of recorded ground motions.
This paper presents on-going challenges in the present paradigm shift of earthquakeinduced ground motion prediction from empirical to physics-based simulation methods. The 2010-2011 Canterbury and 2016 Kaikoura earthquakes are used to illustrate the predictive potential of the different methods. On-going efforts on simulation validation and theoretical developments are then presented, as well as the demands associated with the need for explicit consideration of modelling uncertainties. Finally, discussion is also given to the tools and databases needed for the efficient utilization of simulated ground motions both in specific engineering projects as well as for near-real-time impact assessment.
The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes were recorded over a dense strong motion network in the near-source region, yielding significant observational evidence of seismic complexities, and a basis for interpretation of multi-disciplinary datasets and induced damage to the natural and built environment. This paper provides an overview of observed strong motions from these events and retrospective comparisons with both empirical and physics-based ground motion models. Both empirical and physics-based methods provide good predictions of observations at short vibration periods in an average sense. However, observed ground motion amplitudes at specific locations, such as Heathcote Valley, are seen to systematically depart from ‘average’ empirical predictions as a result of near surface stratigraphic and topographic features which are well modelled via sitespecific response analyses. Significant insight into the long period bias in empirical predictions is obtained from the use of hybrid broadband ground motion simulation. The comparison of both empirical and physics-based simulations against a set of 10 events in the sequence clearly illustrates the potential for simulations to improve ground motion and site response prediction, both at present, and further in the future.
Hybrid broadband simulation methods typically compute high-frequency portion of ground-motions using a simplified-physics approach (commonly known as “stochastic method”) using the same 1D velocity profile, anelastic attenuation profile and site-attenuation (κ0) value for all sites. However, these parameters relating to Earth structure are known to vary spatially. In this study we modify this conventional approach for high-frequency ground-shaking by using site-specific input parameters (referred to as “site-specific”) and analyze improvements over using same parameters for all sites (referred to as “generic”). First, we theoretically understand how different 1D velocity profiles, anelastic attenuation profiles and site-attenuation (κ0) values affects the Fourier Acceleration Spectrum (FAS). Then, we apply site-specific method to simulate 10 events from the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence to assess performance against the generic approach in predicting recorded ground-motions. Our initial results suggest that the site-specific method yields a lower simulation standard deviation than generic case.
This study investigates the uncertainty of simulated earthquake ground motions for smallmagnitude events (Mw 3.5 – 5) in Canterbury, New Zealand. 148 events were simulated with specified uncertainties in: event magnitude, hypocentre location, focal mechanism, high frequency rupture velocity, Brune stress parameter, the site 30-m time-averaged shear wave velocity (Vs30), anelastic attenuation (Q) and high frequency path duration. In order to capture these uncertainties, 25 realisations for each event were generated using the Graves and Pitarka (2015) hybrid broadband simulation approach. Monte-Carlo realisations were drawn from distributions for each uncertainty, to generate a suite of simulation realisations for each event and site. The fit of the multiple simulation realisations to observations were assessed using linear mixed effects regression to generate the systematic source, path and site effects components across all ground motion intensity measure residuals. Findings show that additional uncertainties are required in each of the three source, path, and site components, however the level of output uncertainty is promising considering the input uncertainties included.
Heathcote Valley school strong motion station (HVSC) consistently recorded ground motions with higher intensities than nearby stations during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. For example, as shown in Figure 1, for the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake, peak ground acceleration at HVSC reached 1.4 g (horizontal) and 2 g (vertical), the largest ever recorded in New Zealand. Strong amplification of ground motions is expected at Heathcote Valley due to: 1) the high impedance contrast at the soil-rock interface, and 2) the interference of incident and surface waves within the valley. However, both conventional empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) and the physics-based large scale ground motions simulations (with empirical site response) are ineffective in predicting such amplification due to their respective inherent limitations.
This study explicitly investigates uncertainties in physics-based ground motion simulation validation for earthquakes in the Canterbury region. The simulations utilise the Graves and Pitarka (2015) hybrid methodology, with separately quantified parametric uncertainties in the comprehensive physics and simplified physics components of the model. The study is limited to the simulation of 148 small magnitude (Mw 3.5 – 5) earthquakes, with a point source approximation for the source rupture representations, which also enables a focus on a small number of relevant uncertainties. The parametric uncertainties under consideration were selected through sensitivity analysis, and specifically include: magnitude, Brune stress parameter and high frequency rupture velocity. Twenty Monte Carlo realisations were used to sample parameter uncertainties for each of the 148 events. Residuals associated with the following intensity measures: spectral acceleration, peak ground velocity, arias intensity and significant duration, were ascertained. Using these residuals, validation was performed through assessment of systematic biases in site and source terms from mixed-effects regression. Based on the results to date, initial standard deviation recommendations for parameter uncertainties, based on the Canterbury simulations have been obtained. This work ultimately provides an initial step toward explicit incorporation of modelling uncertainty in simulated ground motion predictions for future events, which will improve the use of simulation models in seismic hazard analysis. We plan to subsequently assess uncertainties for larger magnitude events with more complex ruptures, and events across a larger geographic region, as well as uncertainties due to path attenuation, site effects, and more general model epistemic uncertainties.
This poster presents work to date on ground motion simulation validation and inversion for the Canterbury, New Zealand region. Recent developments have focused on the collection of different earthquake sources and the verification of the SPECFEM3D software package in forward and inverse simulations. SPECFEM3D is an open source software package which simulates seismic wave propagation and performs adjoint tomography based upon the spectral-element method. Figure 2: Fence diagrams of shear wave velocities highlighting the salient features of the (a) 1D Canterbury velocity model, and (b) 3D Canterbury velocity model. Figure 5: Seismic sources and strong motion stations in the South Island of New Zealand, and corresponding ray paths of observed ground motions. Figure 3: Domain used for the 19th October 2010 Mw 4.8 case study event including the location of the seismic source and strong motion stations. By understanding the predictive and inversion capabilities of SPECFEM3D, the current 3D Canterbury Velocity Model can be iteratively improved to better predict the observed ground motions. This is achieved by minimizing the misfit between observed and simulated ground motions using the built-in optimization algorithm. Figure 1 shows the Canterbury Velocity Model domain considered including the locations of small-to-moderate Mw events [3-4.5], strong motion stations, and ray paths of observed ground motions. The area covered by the ray paths essentially indicates the area of the model which will be most affected by the waveform inversion. The seismic sources used in the ground motion simulations are centroid moment tensor solutions obtained from GeoNet. All earthquake ruptures are modelled as point sources with a Gaussian source time function. The minimum Mw limit is enforced to ensure good signal-to-noise ratio and well constrained source parameters. The maximum Mw limit is enforced to ensure the point source approximation is valid and to minimize off-fault nonlinear effects.
his poster presents the ongoing development of a 3D Canterbury seismic velocity model which will be used in physics-based hybrid broadband ground motion simulation of the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Velocity models must sufficiently represent critical aspects of the crustal structure over multiple length scales which will influence the results of the simulations. As a result, numerous sources of data are utilized in order to provide adequate resolution where necessary. Figure 2: (a) Seismic reflection line showing P-wave velocities and significant geologic horizons (Barnes et al. 2011), and (b) Shear wave profiles at 10 locations (Stokoe et al. 2013). Figure 4: Cross sections of the current version of the Canterbury velocity model to depths of 10km as shown in Figure 1: (a) at a constant latitude value of -43.6˚, and (b) at a constant longitude value of 172.64˚. 3. Ground Surface and Geologic Horizon Models Figure 3: (a) Ground surface model derived from numerous available digital elevation models, and (b) Base of the Quaternary sediments derived from structural contours and seismic reflection line elevations. The Canterbury region has a unique and complex geology which likely has a significant impact on strong ground motions, in particular the deep and loose deposits of the Canterbury basin. The Canterbury basin has several implications on seismic wave phenomena such as long period ground motion amplification and wave guide effects. Using a realistic 3D seismic velocity model in physics-based ground motion simulation will implicitly account for such effects and the resultant simulated ground motions can be studied to gain a fundamental understanding of the salient ground motion phenomena which occurred during the Canterbury earthquakes, and the potential for repeat occurrences in the Canterbury region. Figure 1 shows the current model domain as a rectangular area between Lat=[-43.2˚,-44.0˚], and Lon=[171.5˚,173.0˚]. This essentially spans the area between the foot of the Southern Alps in the North West to Banks Peninsula in the East. Currently the model extends to a depth of 50km below sea level.
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This dissertation addresses a diverse range of topics in the area of physics-based ground motion simulation with particular focus on the Canterbury, New Zealand region. The objectives achieved provide the means to perform hybrid broadband ground motion simulation and subsequently validates the simulation methodology employed. In particu- lar, the following topics are addressed: the development of a 3D seismic velocity model of the Canterbury region for broadband ground motion simulation; the development of a 3D geologic model of the interbedded Quaternary formations to provide insight on observed ground motions; and the investigation of systematic effects through ground motion sim- ulation of small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes. The paragraphs below outline each contribution in more detail. As a means to perform hybrid broadband ground motion simulation, a 3D model of the geologic structure and associated seismic velocities in the Canterbury region is devel- oped utilising data from depth-converted seismic reflection lines, petroleum and water well logs, cone penetration tests, and implicitly guided by existing contour maps and geologic cross sections in data sparse subregions. The model explicitly characterises five significant and regionally recognisable geologic surfaces that mark the boundaries between geologic units with distinct lithology and age, including the Banks Peninsula volcanics, which are noted to strongly influence seismic wave propagation. The Basement surface represents the base of the Canterbury sedimentary basin, where a large impedance contrast exists re- sulting in basin-generated waves. Seismic velocities for the lithological units between the geologic surfaces are derived from well logs, seismic reflection surveys, root mean square stacking velocities, empirical correlations, and benchmarked against a regional crustal model, thus providing the necessary information for a Canterbury velocity model for use in broadband seismic wave propagation. A 3D high-resolution model of the Quaternary geologic stratigraphic sequence in the Canterbury region is also developed utilising datasets of 527 high-quality water well logs, and 377 near-surface cone penetration test records. The model, developed using geostatistical Kriging, represents the complex interbedded regional Quaternary geology by characterising the boundaries between significant interbedded geologic formations as 3D surfaces including explicit modelling of the formation unconformities resulting from the Banks Peninsula volcanics. The stratigraphic layering present can result in complex wave propagation. The most prevalent trend observed in the surfaces was the downward dip from inland to the eastern coastline as a result of the dominant fluvial depositional environment of the terrestrial gravel formations. The developed model provides a benefi- cial contribution towards developing a comprehensive understanding of recorded ground motions in the region and also providing the necessary information for future site char- acterisation and site response analyses. To highlight the practicality of the model, an example illustrating the role of the model in constraining surface wave analysis-based shear wave velocity profiling is illustrated along with the calculation of transfer functions to quantify the effect of the interbedded geology on wave propagation. Lastly, an investigation of systematic biases in the (Graves and Pitarka, 2010, 2015) ground motion simulation methodology and the specific inputs used for the Canterbury region is presented considering 144 small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes. In the simulation of these earthquakes, the 3D Canterbury Velocity Model, developed as a part of this dissertation, is used for the low-frequency simulation, and a regional 1D velocity model for the high-frequency simulation. Representative results for individual earthquake sources are first presented to highlight the characteristics of the small-to-moderate mag- nitude earthquake simulations through waveforms, intensity measure scaling with source- to-site distance, and spectral bias of the individual events. Subsequently, a residual de- composition is performed to examine the between- and within-event residuals between observed data, and simulated and empirical predictions. By decomposing the residuals into between- and within-event residuals, the biases in source, path and site effects, and their causes, can be inferred. The residuals are comprehensively examined considering their aggregated characteristics, dependence on predictor variables, spatial distribution, and site-specific effects. The results of the simulation are also benchmarked against empir- ical ground motion models, where their similarities manifest from common components in their prediction. Ultimately, suggestions to improve the predictive capability of the simulations are presented as a result of the analysis.
This study provides an initial examination of source parameter uncertainty in a New Zealand ground motion simulation model, by simulating multiple event realisations with perturbed source parameters. Small magnitude events in Canterbury have been selected for this study due to the small number of source input parameters, the wealth of recorded data, and the lack of appreciable off-fault non-linear effects. Which provides greater opportunity to identify systematic source, path and site effects, required to robustly investigate the causes of uncertainty.
High-quality ground motion records are required for engineering applications including response history analysis, seismic hazard development, and validation of physics-based ground motion simulations. However, the determination of whether a ground motion record is high-quality is poorly handled by automation with mathematical functions and can become prohibitive if done manually. Machine learning applications are well-suited to this problem, and a previous feed-forward neural network was developed (Bellagamba et al. 2019) to determine high-quality records from small crustal events in the Canterbury and Wellington regions for simulation validation. This prior work was however limited by the omission of moderate-to-large magnitude events and those from other tectonic environments, as well as a lack of explicit determination of the minimum usable frequency of the ground motion. To address these shortcomings, an updated neural network was developed to predict the quality of ground motion records for all magnitudes and all tectonic sources—active shallow crustal, subduction intraslab, and subduction interface—in New Zealand. The predictive performance of the previous feed-forward neural network was matched by the neural network in the domain of small crustal records, and this level of predictive performance is now extended to all source magnitudes and types in New Zealand making the neural network applicable to global ground motion databases. Furthermore, the neural network provides quality and minimum usable frequency predictions for each of the three orthogonal components of a record which may then be mapped into a binary quality decision or otherwise applied as desired. This framework provides flexibility for the end user to predict high-quality records with various acceptability thresholds allowing for this neural network to be used in a range of applications.
SeisFinder is an open-source web service developed by QuakeCoRE and the University of Canterbury, focused on enabling the extraction of output data from computationally intensive earthquake resilience calculations. Currently, SeisFinder allows users to select historical or future events and retrieve ground motion simulation outputs for requested geographical locations. This data can be used as input for other resilience calculations, such as dynamic response history analysis. SeisFinder was developed using Django, a high-level python web framework, and uses a postgreSQL database. Because our large-scale computationally-intensive numerical ground motion simulations produce big data, the actual data is stored in file systems, while the metadata is stored in the database.
The overarching goal of this dissertation is to improve predictive capabilities of geotechnical seismic site response analyses by incorporating additional salient physical phenomena that influence site effects. Specifically, multidimensional wave-propagation effects that are neglected in conventional 1D site response analyses are incorporated by: (1) combining results of 3D regional-scale simulations with 1D nonlinear wave-propagation site response analysis, and (2) modelling soil heterogeneity in 2D site response analyses using spatially-correlated random fields to perturb soil properties. A method to combine results from 3D hybrid physics-based ground motion simulations with site-specific nonlinear site response analyses was developed. The 3D simulations capture 3D ground motion phenomena on a regional scale, while the 1D nonlinear site response, which is informed by detailed site-specific soil characterization data, can capture site effects more rigorously. Simulations of 11 moderate-to-large earthquakes from the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) at 20 strong motion stations (SMS) were used to validate simulations with observed ground motions. The predictions were compared to those from an empirically-based ground motion model (GMM), and from 3D simulations with simplified VS30- based site effects modelling. By comparing all predictions to observations at seismic recording stations, it was found that the 3D physics-based simulations can predict ground motions with comparable bias and uncertainty as the GMM, albeit, with significantly lower bias at long periods. Additionally, the explicit modelling of nonlinear site-response improves predictions significantly compared to the simplified VS30-based approach for soft-soil or atypical sites that exhibit exceptionally strong site effects. A method to account for the spatial variability of soils and wave scattering in 2D site response analyses was developed and validated against a database of vertical array sites in California. The inputs required to run the 2D analyses are nominally the same as those required for 1D analyses (except for spatial correlation parameters), enabling easier adoption in practice. The first step was to create the platform and workflow, and to perform a sensitivity study involving 5,400 2D model realizations to investigate the influence of random field input parameters on wave scattering and site response. Boundary conditions were carefully assessed to understand their effect on the modelled response and select appropriate assumptions for use on a 2D model with lateral heterogeneities. Multiple ground-motion intensity measures (IMs) were analyzed to quantify the influence from random field input parameters and boundary conditions. It was found that this method is capable of scattering seismic waves and creating spatially-varying ground motions at the ground surface. The redistribution of ground-motion energy across wider frequency bands, and the scattering attenuation of high-frequency waves in 2D analyses, resemble features observed in empirical transfer functions (ETFs) computed in other studies. The developed 2D method was subsequently extended to more complicated multi-layer soil profiles and applied to a database of 21 vertical array sites in California to test its appropriate- ness for future predictions. Again, different boundary condition and input motion assumptions were explored to extend the method to the in-situ conditions of a vertical array (with a sensor embedded in the soil). ETFs were compared to theoretical transfer functions (TTFs) from conventional 1D analyses and 2D analyses with heterogeneity. Residuals of transfer-function- based IMs, and IMs of surface ground motions, were also used as validation metrics. The spatial variability of transfer-function-based IMs was estimated from 2D models and compared to the event-to-event variability from ETFs. This method was found capable of significantly improving predictions of median ETF amplification factors, especially for sites that display higher event-to-event variability. For sites that are well represented by 1D methods, the 2D approach can underpredict amplification factors at higher modes, suggesting that the level of heterogeneity may be over-represented by the 2D random field models used in this study.
We present initial results from a set of three-dimensional (3D) deterministic earthquake ground motion simulations for the northern Canterbury plains, Christchurch and the Banks Peninsula region, which explicitly incorporate the effects of the surface topography. The simu-lations are done using Hercules, an octree-based finite-element parallel software for solving 3D seismic wave propagation problems in heterogeneous media under kinematic faulting. We describe the efforts undertaken to couple Hercules with the South Island Velocity Model (SIVM), which included changes to the SIVM code in order to allow for single repetitive que-ries and thus achieve a seamless finite-element meshing process within the end-to-end ap-proach adopted in Hercules. We present our selection of the region of interest, which corre-sponds to an area of about 120 km × 120 km, with the 3D model reaching a depth of 60 km. Initial simulation parameters are set for relatively high minimum shear wave velocity and a low maximum frequency, which we are progressively scaling up as computing resources permit. While the effects of topography are typically more important at higher frequencies and low seismic velocities, even at this initial stage of our efforts (with a maximum of 2 Hz and a mini-mum of 500 m/s), it is possible to observe the importance of the topography in the response of some key locations within our model. To highlight these effects we compare the results of the 3D topographic model with respect to those of a flat (squashed) 3D model. We draw rele-vant conclusions from the study of topographic effects during earthquakes for this region and describe our plans for future work.
This paper presents the ongoing development of a new 3D seismic velocity model of Canterbury, New Zealand. The model explicitly represents the Canterbury sedimentary basin, and other significant geologic horizons, which are expected to have important implications on observed ground motions. The model utilizes numerous sources of data, including 3D regional tomography with a variable-depth inferred Moho, seismic reflection survey lines, geotechnical boreholes and well logs, spectral analysis of surface waves, and CPT logs which provide velocity constraints over their respective ranges of application. The model provides P- and S-wave velocity and density (i.e. Vp, Vs and p) over a grid of input points, and is presently being utilized in broadband ground motion simulations of the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Comparison of simulated ground motions with those observed in the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes will help provide a better understanding of the salient physical processes which characterized the unique set of strong ground motions recorded in this sequence of earthquake events.
he strong motion station at Heathcote Valley School (HVSC) recorded unusually high peak ground accelerations (2.21g vertical and 1.41g horizontal) during the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Ground motions recorded at HVSC in numerous other events also exhibited consistently higher intensities compared with nearby strong motion stations. We investigated the underlying causes of such high intensity ground motions at HVSC by means of 2D dynamic finite element analyses, using recorded ground motions during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. The model takes advantage of a LiDAR-based digital elevation model (DEM) to account for the surface topography, while the geometry and dynamic properties of the surficial soils are characterized by seismic cone penetration tests (sCPT) and Multi-Channel Analyses of Surface Waves (MASW). Comparisons of simulated and recorded ground motions suggests that our model performs well for distant events, while for near-field events, ground motions recorded at the adopted reference station at Lyttelton Port are not reasonable input motions for the simulation. The simulations suggest that Rayleigh waves generated at the inclined interface of the surficial colluvium and underlying volcanic rock strongly affect the ground motions recorded at HVSC, in particular, being the dominant contributor to the recorded vertical motions.
This paper investigates the effects of variability in source rupture parameters on site-specific physics-based simulated ground motions, ascertained through the systematic analysis of ground motion intensity measures. As a preliminary study, we consider simulations of the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake using the Graves and Pitarka (2015) methodology. The effects of source variability are considered via a sensitivity study in which parameters (hypocentre location, earthquake magnitude, average rupture velocity, fault geometry and the Brune stress parameter) are individually varied by one standard deviation. The sensitivity of simulated ground motion intensity measures are subsequently compared against observational data. The preliminary results from this study indicate that uncertainty in the stress parameter and the rupture velocity have the most significant effect on the high frequency amplitudes. Conversely, magnitude uncertainty was found to be most influential on the spectral acceleration amplitudes at low frequencies. Further work is required to extend this preliminary study to exhaustively consider more events and to include parameter covariance. The ultimate results of this research will assist in the validation of the overall simulation method’s accuracy in capturing various rupture parameters, which is essential for the use of simulated ground motion models in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.
The aim of this poster is to examine the seismic response of two structural systems when subjected to observed and simulated ground motions (GMs) for the 22 February 2011 (22Feb2011) Christchurch earthquake (Razafindrakoto et al. (2018)) via an automated workflow. The layout and technical details of the automated workflow are described at Motha et. al. (2019).
