Validating dynamic responses of engineered systems subjected to simulated ground motions is essential in scrutinising the applicability of simulated ground motions for engineering demand analyses. This paper compares the responses of two 3D building models subjected to recorded and simulated ground motions scaled to the NZS1170.5 design response spectrum, in order to evaluate the applicability of simulated ground motions for use in conventional engineering practice in New Zealand. The buildings were designed according to the NZS1170.5 and physically constructed in Christchurch prior to the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. 40 recorded ground motions from the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake, along with the simulated ground motions for this event from Razafindrakoto et al. (2018) are considered. The seismic responses of the structures are principally quantified via the peak floor acceleration and maximum inter-storey drift ratio. Overall, the results indicate a general agreement in seismic demands obtained using the recorded and simulated ensembles of ground motions and provide further evidence that simulated ground motions using state-of-the-art methods can be used in code-based structural performance assessments inplace of, or in combination with, ensembles of recorded ground motions.
Validation is an essential step to assess the applicability of simulated ground motions for utilization in engineering practice, and a comprehensive analysis should include both simple intensity measures (PGA, SA, etc), as well as the seismic response of a range of complex systems obtained by response history analysis. In order to enable a spectrum of complex structural systems to be considered in systematic validation of ground motion simulations in a routine fashion, an automated workflow was developed. Such a workflow enables validation of simulated ground motions in terms of different complex model responses by considering various ground motion sets and different ground motion simulation methods. The automated workflow converts the complex validation process into a routine one by providing a platform to perform the validation process promptly as a built-in process of simulation post-processing. As a case study, validation of simulated ground motions was investigated via the automated workflow by comparing the dynamic responses of three steel special moment frame (SMRF) subjected to the 40 observed and 40 simulated ground motions of 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. The seismic responses of the structures are principally quantified via the peak floor acceleration and maximum inter-storey drift ratio. Overall, the results indicate a general agreement in seismic demands obtained using the recorded and simulated ensembles of ground motions and provide further evidence that simulated ground motions can be used in code-based structural performance assessments in-place of, or in combination with, ensembles of recorded ground motions.
This dissertation addresses a diverse range of topics in the physics-based broadband ground motion simulation, with a focus on New Zealand applications. In particular the following topics are addressed: the methodology and computational implementation of a New Zealand Velocity Model for broadband ground motion simulation; generalised parametric functions and spatial correlations for seismic velocities in the Canterbury, New Zealand region from surface-wave-based site characterisation; and ground motion simulations of Hope Fault earthquakes. The paragraphs below outline each contribution in more detail. A necessary component in physics-based ground motion simulation is a 3D model which details the seismic velocities in the region of interest. Here a velocity model construction methodology, its computational implementation, and application in the construction of a New Zealand velocity model for use in physics-based broadband ground motion simulation are presented. The methodology utilises multiple datasets spanning different length scales, which is enabled via the use of modular sub-regions, geologic surfaces, and parametric representations of crustal velocity. A number of efficiency-related workflows to decrease the overall computational construction time are employed, while maintaining the flexibility and extensibility to incorporate additional datasets and re- fined velocity parameterizations as they become available. The model comprises explicit representations of the Canterbury, Wellington, Nelson-Tasman, Kaikoura, Marlborough, Waiau, Hanmer and Cheviot sedimentary basins embedded within a regional travel-time tomography-based velocity model for the shallow crust and provides the means to conduct ground motion simulations throughout New Zealand for the first time. Recently developed deep shear-wave velocity profiles in Canterbury enabled models that better characterise the velocity structure within geologic layers of the Canterbury sedimentary basin to be developed. Here the development of depth- and Vs30-dependent para-metric velocity and spatial correlation models to characterise shear-wave velocities within the geologic layers of the Canterbury sedimentary basin are presented. The models utilise data from 22 shear-wave velocity profiles of up to 2.5km depth (derived from surface wave analysis) juxtaposed with models which detail the three-dimensional structure of the geologic formations in the Canterbury sedimentary basin. Parametric velocity equations are presented for Fine Grained Sediments, Gravels, and Tertiary layer groupings. Spatial correlations were developed and applied to generate three-dimensional stochastic velocity perturbations. Collectively, these models enable seismic velocities to be realistically represented for applications such as 3D ground motion and site response simulations. Lastly the New Zealand velocity model is applied to simulate ground motions for a Mw7.51 rupture of the Hope Fault using a physics-based simulation methodology and a 3D crustal velocity model of New Zealand. The simulation methodology was validated for use in the region through comparison with observations for a suite of historic small magnitude earthquakes located proximal to the Hope Fault. Simulations are compared with conventionally utilised empirical ground motion models, with simulated peak ground velocities being notably higher in regions with modelled sedimentary basins. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken where the source characteristics of magnitude, stress parameter, hypocentre location and kinematic slip distribution were varied and an analysis of their effect on ground motion intensities is presented. It was found that the magnitude and stress parameter strongly influenced long and short period ground motion amplitudes, respectively. Ground motion intensities for the Hope Fault scenario are compared with the 2016 Kaikoura Mw7.8 earthquake, it was found that the Kaikoura earthquake produced stronger motions along the eastern South Island, while the Hope Fault scenario resulted in stronger motions immediately West of the near-fault region. The simulated ground motions for this scenario complement prior empirically-based estimates and are informative for mitigation and emergency planning purposes.
This paper investigates the effects of variability in source rupture parameters on site-specific physics-based simulated ground motions, ascertained through the systematic analysis of ground motion intensity measures. As a preliminary study, we consider simulations of the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake using the Graves and Pitarka (2015) methodology. The effects of source variability are considered via a sensitivity study in which parameters (hypocentre location, earthquake magnitude, average rupture velocity, fault geometry and the Brune stress parameter) are individually varied by one standard deviation. The sensitivity of simulated ground motion intensity measures are subsequently compared against observational data. The preliminary results from this study indicate that uncertainty in the stress parameter and the rupture velocity have the most significant effect on the high frequency amplitudes. Conversely, magnitude uncertainty was found to be most influential on the spectral acceleration amplitudes at low frequencies. Further work is required to extend this preliminary study to exhaustively consider more events and to include parameter covariance. The ultimate results of this research will assist in the validation of the overall simulation method’s accuracy in capturing various rupture parameters, which is essential for the use of simulated ground motion models in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.
The aim of this poster is to examine the seismic response of two structural systems when subjected to observed and simulated ground motions (GMs) for the 22 February 2011 (22Feb2011) Christchurch earthquake (Razafindrakoto et al. (2018)) via an automated workflow. The layout and technical details of the automated workflow are described at Motha et. al. (2019).
This study provides an initial examination of source parameter uncertainty in a New Zealand ground motion simulation model, by simulating multiple event realisations with perturbed source parameters. Small magnitude events in Canterbury have been selected for this study due to the small number of source input parameters, the wealth of recorded data, and the lack of appreciable off-fault non-linear effects. Which provides greater opportunity to identify systematic source, path and site effects, required to robustly investigate the causes of uncertainty.
This study explicitly investigates uncertainties in physics-based ground motion simulation validation for earthquakes in the Canterbury region. The simulations utilise the Graves and Pitarka (2015) hybrid methodology, with separately quantified parametric uncertainties in the comprehensive physics and simplified physics components of the model. The study is limited to the simulation of 148 small magnitude (Mw 3.5 – 5) earthquakes, with a point source approximation for the source rupture representations, which also enables a focus on a small number of relevant uncertainties. The parametric uncertainties under consideration were selected through sensitivity analysis, and specifically include: magnitude, Brune stress parameter and high frequency rupture velocity. Twenty Monte Carlo realisations were used to sample parameter uncertainties for each of the 148 events. Residuals associated with the following intensity measures: spectral acceleration, peak ground velocity, arias intensity and significant duration, were ascertained. Using these residuals, validation was performed through assessment of systematic biases in site and source terms from mixed-effects regression. Based on the results to date, initial standard deviation recommendations for parameter uncertainties, based on the Canterbury simulations have been obtained. This work ultimately provides an initial step toward explicit incorporation of modelling uncertainty in simulated ground motion predictions for future events, which will improve the use of simulation models in seismic hazard analysis. We plan to subsequently assess uncertainties for larger magnitude events with more complex ruptures, and events across a larger geographic region, as well as uncertainties due to path attenuation, site effects, and more general model epistemic uncertainties.
This thesis documents the development and demonstration of an assessment method for analysing earthquake-related damage to concrete waste water gravity pipes in Christchurch, New Zealand, following the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES). The method is intended to be internationally adaptable to assist territorial local authorities with improving lifelines infrastructure disaster impact assessment and improvements in resilience. This is achieved through the provision of high-resolution, localised damage data, which demonstrate earthquake impacts along the pipe length. The insights gained will assist decision making and the prioritisation of resources following earthquake events to quickly and efficiently restore network function and reduce community impacts. The method involved obtaining a selection of 55 reinforced concrete gravity waste water pipes with available Closed-Circuit Television (CCTV) inspection footage filmed before and after the CES. The pipes were assessed by reviewing the recordings, and damage was mapped to the nearest metre along the pipe length using Geographic Information Systems. An established, systematic coding process was used for reporting the nature and severity of the observed damage, and to differentiate between pre-existing and new damage resulting from the CES. The damage items were overlaid with geospatial data such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)-derived ground deformation data, Liquefaction Resistance Index data and seismic ground motion data (Peak Ground acceleration and Peak Ground Velocity) to identify potential relationships between these parameters and pipe performance. Initial assessment outcomes for the pipe selection revealed that main pipe joints and lateral connections were more vulnerable than the pipe body during a seismic event. Smaller diameter pipes may also be more vulnerable than larger pipes during a seismic event. Obvious differential ground movement resulted in increased local damage observations in many cases, however this was not obvious for all pipes. Pipes with older installation ages exhibited more overall damage prior to a seismic event, which is likely attributable to increased chemical and biological deterioration. However, no evidence was found relating pipe age to performance during a seismic event. No evidence was found linking levels of pre-CES damage in a pipe with subsequent seismic performance, and seismic performance with liquefaction resistance or magnitude of seismic ground motion. The results reported are of limited application due to the small demonstration sample size, but reveal the additional level of detail and insight possible using the method presented in this thesis over existing assessment methods, especially in relation to high resolution variations along the length of the pipe such as localised ground deformations evidenced by LiDAR. The results may be improved by studying a larger and more diverse sample pool, automating data collection and input processes in order to improve efficiency and consider additional input such as pipe dip and cumulative damage over a large distance. The method is dependent on comprehensive and accurate pre-event CCTV assessments and LIDAR data so that post-event data could be compared. It is proposed that local territorial authorities should prioritise acquiring this information as a first important step towards improving the seismic resilience of a gravity waste water pipe network.
This thesis documents the development and demonstration of an assessment method for analysing earthquake-related damage to concrete waste water gravity pipes in Christchurch, New Zealand, following the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES). The method is intended to be internationally adaptable to assist territorial local authorities with improving lifelines infrastructure disaster impact assessment and improvements in resilience. This is achieved through the provision of high-resolution, localised damage data, which demonstrate earthquake impacts along the pipe length. The insights gained will assist decision making and the prioritisation of resources following earthquake events to quickly and efficiently restore network function and reduce community impacts. The method involved obtaining a selection of 55 reinforced concrete gravity waste water pipes with available Closed-Circuit Television (CCTV) inspection footage filmed before and after the CES. The pipes were assessed by reviewing the recordings, and damage was mapped to the nearest metre along the pipe length using Geographic Information Systems. An established, systematic coding process was used for reporting the nature and severity of the observed damage, and to differentiate between pre-existing and new damage resulting from the CES. The damage items were overlaid with geospatial data such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)-derived ground deformation data, Liquefaction Resistance Index data and seismic ground motion data (Peak Ground acceleration and Peak Ground Velocity) to identify potential relationships between these parameters and pipe performance. Initial assessment outcomes for the pipe selection revealed that main pipe joints and lateral connections were more vulnerable than the pipe body during a seismic event. Smaller diameter pipes may also be more vulnerable than larger pipes during a seismic event. Obvious differential ground movement resulted in increased local damage observations in many cases, however this was not obvious for all pipes. Pipes with older installation ages exhibited more overall damage prior to a seismic event, which is likely attributable to increased chemical and biological deterioration. However, no evidence was found relating pipe age to performance during a seismic event. No evidence was found linking levels of pre-CES damage in a pipe with subsequent seismic performance, and seismic performance with liquefaction resistance or magnitude of seismic ground motion. The results reported are of limited application due to the small demonstration sample size, but reveal the additional level of detail and insight possible using the method presented in this thesis over existing assessment methods, especially in relation to high resolution variations along the length of the pipe such as localised ground deformations evidenced by LiDAR. The results may be improved by studying a larger and more diverse sample pool, automating data collection and input processes in order to improve efficiency and consider additional input such as pipe dip and cumulative damage over a large distance. The method is dependent on comprehensive and accurate pre-event CCTV assessments and LIDAR data so that post-event data could be compared. It is proposed that local territorial authorities should prioritise acquiring this information as a first important step towards improving the seismic resilience of a gravity waste water pipe network.
© 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Prediction of building collapse due to significant seismic motion is a principle objective of earthquake engineers, particularly after a major seismic event when the structure is damaged and decisions may need to be made rapidly concerning the safe occupation of a building or surrounding areas. Traditional model-based pushover analyses are effective, but only if the structural properties are well understood, which is not the case after an event when that information is most useful. This paper combines hysteresis loop analysis (HLA) structural health monitoring (SHM) and incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) methods to identify and then analyse collapse capacity and the probability of collapse for a specific structure, at any time, a range of earthquake excitations to ensure robustness. This nonlinear dynamic analysis enables constant updating of building performance predictions following a given and subsequent earthquake events, which can result in difficult to identify deterioration of structural components and their resulting capacity, all of which is far more difficult using static pushover analysis. The combined methods and analysis provide near real-time updating of the collapse fragility curves as events progress, thus quantifying the change of collapse probability or seismic induced losses very soon after an earthquake for decision-making. Thus, this combination of methods enables a novel, higher-resolution analysis of risk that was not previously available. The methods are not computationally expensive and there is no requirement for a validated numerical model, thus providing a relatively simpler means of assessing collapse probability immediately post-event when such speed can provide better information for critical decision-making. Finally, the results also show a clear need to extend the area of SHM toward creating improved predictive models for analysis of subsequent events, where the Christchurch series of 2010–2011 had significant post-event aftershocks.
Predicting building collapse due to seismic motion is critical in design and more so after a major event. Damaged structures can appear sound, but collapse under following major events. There can thus be significant risk in decision making after a major seismic event concerning the safe occupation of a building or surrounding areas, versus the unknown impact of unknown major aftershocks. Model-based pushover analyses are effective if the structural properties are well understood, which is not valid post-event when this risk information is most useful. This research combines Hysteresis Loop Analysis (HLA) structural health monitoring (SHM) and Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) methods to determine collapse capacity and probability of collapse for a specific structure, at any time, a range of earthquake excitations to ensure robustness. The nonlinear dynamic analysis method presented enables constant updating of building performance predictions using post-event SHM results. The resulting combined methods provide near real-time updating of collapse fragility curves as events progress, quantifying the change of collapse probability or seismic induced losses for decision-making - a novel, higher resolution risk analysis than previously available. The methods are not computationally expensive and there is no requirement for a validated numerical model. Results show significant potential benefits and a clear evolution of risk. They also show clear need for extending SHM toward creating improved predictive models for analysis of subsequent events, where the Christchurch series of 2010-2011 had significant post-event aftershocks after each main event. Finally, the overall method is generalisable to any typical engineering demand parameter.
A photograph contributed by Jennifer, a participant in the Understanding Place research project. The photograph has the description "The ground is covered in little mushrooms when you start looking, but it's hard to tell which are edible". Please note that Jennifer's Red Zone Story was a test-pilot for the Understanding Place project.
Aotearoa's biggest demolition job has entered its final stage. This morning media were given a final chance to walk through Christchurch's Lancaster Park before it is completely brought to the ground. The park's grandstands were badly damaged in the 2011 earthquake, and in 2017, $12 million was set aside for it be pulled down. Nicholas Pointon was there.
Courage has remained an elusive concept to define despite having been in the English lexicon for hundreds of years. The Canterbury earthquake sequence that began in 2010 provided a unique context in which to undertake research that would contribute to further conceptualisation of courage. This qualitative study was undertaken in Christchurch, New Zealand, with adults over the age of 70 who experienced the Canterbury earthquakes and continued to live in the Canterbury region. The population group was chosen because it is an under researched group in post-disaster environments, and one that offers valuable insights because of members' length and breadth of life experiences, and likely reminiscent and reflective life stage. A constructivist grounded theory approach was utilised, with data collected through semi-structured focus groups and individual key informant interviews. The common adverse experience of the participants initially discussed was the earthquakes, which was followed by exploration of courage in their other lived experiences. Through an inductive process of data analysis, conceptual categories were identified, which when further analysed and integrated, contributed to a definition of courage. The definition was subsequently discussed with social work professionals who had remained working in the Canterbury region after experiencing the earthquakes. From the examples and the actions described within these, a process model was developed to support the application of courage. The model includes five steps: recognising an adverse situation, making a conscious decision to act, accessing sources of motivation, mastering emotion and taking action. Defining and utilising courage can help people to face adversity associated with everyday life and ultimately supports self-actualisation and self-development. Recommendations from the study include teaching about courage within social work education, utilising the process model within supervision, intentionally involving older adults in emergency management planning and developing specific social work tasks in hospital settings following a disaster.
Beach ridge stratigraphy can provide an important record of both sustained coastal progradation and responses to events such as extreme storms, as well as evidence of earthquake induced sediment pulses. This study is a stratigraphic investigation of the late Holocene mixed sand gravel (MSG) beach ridge plain on the Canterbury coast, New Zealand. The subsurface was imaged along a 370 m shore-normal transect using 100 and 200 MHz ground penetrating radar (GPR) antennae, and cored to sample sediment textures. Results show that, seaward of a back-barrier lagoon, the Pegasus Bay beach ridge plain prograded almost uniformly, under conditions of relatively stable sea level. Nearshore sediment supply appears to have created a sustained sediment surplus, perhaps as a result of post-seismic sediment pulses, resulting in a flat, morphologically featureless beach ridge plain. Evidence of a high magnitude storm provides an exception, with an estimated event return period in excess of 100 years. Evidence from the GPR sequence combined with modern process observations from MSG beaches indicates that a paleo storm initially created a washover fan into the back-barrier lagoon, with a large amount of sediment simultaneously moved off the beach face into the nearshore. This erosion event resulted in a topographic depression still evident today. In the subsequent recovery period, sediment was reworked by swash onto the beach as a sequence of berm deposit laminations, creating an elevated beach ridge that also has a modern-day topographic signature. As sediment supply returned to normal, and under conditions of falling sea level, a beach ridge progradation sequence accumulated seaward of the storm feature out to the modern-day beach as a large flat, uniform progradation plain. This study highlights the importance of extreme storm events and earthquake pulses on MSG coastlines in triggering high volume beach ridge formation during the subsequent recovery period.
Results from a series of 1D seismic effective stress analyses of natural soil deposits from Christchurch are summarized. The analysed soil columns include sites whose performance during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes varied significantly, from no liquefaction manifestation at the ground surface to very severe liquefaction, in which case a large area of the site was covered by thick soil ejecta. Key soil profile characteristics and response mechanisms affecting the severity of surface liquefaction manifestation and subsequent damage are explored. The influence of shaking intensity on the triggering and contribution of these mechanisms is also discussed. Careful examination of the results highlights the importance of considering the deposit as a whole, i.e. a system of layers, including interactions between layers in the dynamic response and through pore water pressure redistribution and water flow.
Buildings subject to earthquake shaking will tend to move not only horizontally but also rotate in plan. In-plan rotation is known as “building torsion” and it may occur for a variety of reasons, including stiffness and strength eccentricity and/or torsional effects from ground motions. Methods to consider torsion in structural design standards generally involve analysis of the structure in its elastic state. This is despite the fact that the structural elements can yield, thereby significantly altering the building response and the structural element demands. If demands become too large, the structure may collapse. While a number of studies have been conducted into the behavior of structures considering inelastic building torsion, there appears to be no consensus that one method is better than another and as a result, provisions within current design standards have not adopted recent proposals in the literature. However, the Canterbury Earthquakes Royal Commission recently made the recommendation that provisions to account for inelastic torsional response of buildings be introduced within New Zealand building standards. Consequently, this study examines how and to what extent the torsional response due to system eccentricity may affect the seismic performance of a building and considers what a simple design method should account for. It is concluded that new methods should be simple, be applicable to both the elastic and inelastic range of response, consider bidirectional excitation and include guidance for multi-story systems.
Developing a holistic understanding of social, cultural, and economic impacts of disasters can help in building disaster risk knowledge for policy making and planning. Many methods can help in developing an understanding of the impacts of a disaster, including interviews and surveys with people who have experienced disaster, which may be invasive at times and create stress for the participants to relive their experiences. In the past decade, social media, blog posts, video blogs (i.e. “vlogs”), and crowdsourcing mechanisms such as Humanitarian OpenStreetMap and Ushahidi, have become prominent platforms for people to share their experiences and impacts of an event from the ground. These platforms allow for the discovery of a range of impact information, from physical impacts, to social, cultural, and psychological impacts. It can also reveal interesting behavioural information such as their decision to heed a warning or not, as people tend to share their experiences and their reactions online. This information can help researchers and authorities understand both the impacts as well as behavioural responses to hazards, which can then shape how early warning systems are designed and delivered. It can also help to identify gaps in desired behavioural responses. This poster presents a selection of cases identified from the literature and grey literature, such as the Haiti earthquake, the Christchurch earthquake, Hurricane Sandy, and Hurricane Harvey, where online platforms were widely used during and after a disaster to document impacts, experiences, and behavioural responses. A summary of key learnings and areas for future research is provided.
The purpose of this research is to investigate men’s experiences of the 2016 7.8 magnitude Kaikōura earthquake and Tsunami. While, research into the impacts of the earthquake has been conducted, few studies have examined how gender shaped people’s experiences of this natural hazard event. Analysing disasters through a gender lens has significantly contributed to disaster scholarship in identifying the resilience and vulnerabilities of individuals and communities pre- and post-disaster (Fordham, 2012; Bradshaw, 2013). This research employs understandings of masculinities (Connell, 2005), to examine men’s strengths and challenges in responding, recovering, and coping following the earthquake. Qualitative inquiry was carried out in Northern Canterbury and Marlborough involving 18 face-to-face interviews with men who were impacted by the Kaikōura earthquake and its aftermath. Interview material is being analysed using thematic and narrative analysis. Some of the preliminary findings have shown that men took on voluntary roles in addition to their fulltime paid work resulting in long hours, poor sleep and little time spent with family. Some men assisted wives and children to high ground then drove into the tsunami zone to check on relatives or to help evacuate people. Although analysis of the findings is currently ongoing, preliminary findings have identified that the men who participated in the study have been negatively impacted by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake. A theme identified amongst participants was an avoidance to seek support with the challenges they were experiencing due to the earthquake. The research findings align with key characteristics of masculinity, including demonstrating risky behaviours and neglecting self or professional care. This study suggests that these behaviours affect men’s overall resilience, and thus the resilience of the wider community.
The purpose of this research is to investigate men’s experiences of the 2016 7.8 magnitude Kaikōura earthquake and Tsunami. While, research into the impacts of the earthquake has been conducted, few studies have examined how gender shaped people’s experiences of this natural hazard event. Analysing disasters through a gender lens has significantly contributed to disaster scholarship in identifying the resilience and vulnerabilities of individuals and communities pre- and post-disaster (Fordham, 2012; Bradshaw, 2013). This research employs understandings of masculinities (Connell, 2005), to examine men’s strengths and challenges in responding, recovering, and coping following the earthquake. Qualitative inquiry was carried out in Northern Canterbury and Marlborough involving 18 face-to-face interviews with men who were impacted by the Kaikōura earthquake and its aftermath. Interview material is being analysed using thematic and narrative analysis. Some of the preliminary findings have shown that men took on voluntary roles in addition to their fulltime paid work resulting in long hours, poor sleep and little time spent with family. Some men assisted wives and children to high ground then drove into the tsunami zone to check on relatives or to help evacuate people. Although analysis of the findings is currently ongoing, preliminary findings have identified that the men who participated in the study have been negatively impacted by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake. A theme identified amongst participants was an avoidance to seek support with the challenges they were experiencing due to the earthquake. The research findings align with key characteristics of masculinity, including demonstrating risky behaviours and neglecting self or professional care. This study suggests that these behaviours affect men’s overall resilience, and thus the resilience of the wider community.
The increase of the world's population located near areas prone to natural disasters has given rise to new ‘mega risks’; the rebuild after disasters will test the governments’ capabilities to provide appropriate responses to protect the people and businesses. During the aftermath of the Christchurch earthquakes (2010-2012) that destroyed much of the inner city, the government of New Zealand set up a new partnership between the public and private sector to rebuild the city’s infrastructure. The new alliance, called SCIRT, used traditional risk management methods in the many construction projects. And, in hindsight, this was seen as one of the causes for some of the unanticipated problems. This study investigated the risk management practices in the post-disaster recovery to produce a specific risk management model that can be used effectively during future post-disaster situations. The aim was to develop a risk management guideline for more integrated risk management and fill the gap that arises when the traditional risk management framework is used in post-disaster situations. The study used the SCIRT alliance as a case study. The findings of the study are based on time and financial data from 100 rebuild projects, and from surveying and interviewing risk management professionals connected to the infrastructure recovery programme. The study focussed on post-disaster risk management in construction as a whole. It took into consideration the changes that happened to the people, the work and the environment due to the disaster. System thinking, and system dynamics techniques have been used due to the complexity of the recovery and to minimise the effect of unforeseen consequences. Based on an extensive literature review, the following methods were used to produce the model. The analytical hierarchical process and the relative importance index have been used to identify the critical risks inside the recovery project. System theory methods and quantitative graph theory have been used to investigate the dynamics of risks between the different management levels. Qualitative comparative analysis has been used to explore the critical success factors. And finally, causal loop diagrams combined with the grounded theory approach has been used to develop the model itself. The study identified that inexperienced staff, low management competency, poor communication, scope uncertainty, and non-alignment of the timing of strategic decisions with schedule demands, were the key risk factors in recovery projects. Among the critical risk groups, it was found that at a strategic management level, financial risks attracted the highest level of interest, as the client needs to secure funding. At both alliance-management and alliance-execution levels, the safety and environmental risks were given top priority due to a combination of high levels of emotional, reputational and media stresses. Risks arising from a lack of resources combined with the high volume of work and the concern that the cost could go out of control, alongside the aforementioned funding issues encouraged the client to create the recovery alliance model with large reputable construction organisations to lock in the recovery cost, at a time when the scope was still uncertain. This study found that building trust between all parties, clearer communication and a constant interactive flow of information, established a more working environment. Competent and clear allocation of risk management responsibilities, cultural shift, risk prioritisation, and staff training were crucial factors. Finally, the post-disaster risk management (PDRM) model can be described as an integrated risk management model that considers how the changes which happened to the environment, the people and their work, caused them to think differently to ease the complexity of the recovery projects. The model should be used as a guideline for recovery systems, especially after an earthquake, looking in detail at all the attributes and the concepts, which influence the risk management for more effective PDRM. The PDRM model is represented in Causal Loops Diagrams (CLD) in Figure 8.31 and based on 10 principles (Figure 8.32) and 26 concepts (Table 8.1) with its attributes.
