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Research Papers, Lincoln University

The Project Team were: Simon Wallace (TIA), David Simmons (Lincoln University), Susanne Becken (Lincoln University)The State of the Tourism Sector report is published annually.The Tourism Industry Association of New Zealand’s (TIA) annual State of the Sector 2011 has been prepared in partnership with Lincoln University. The objective of this is to understand better how the tourism sector sees its future and what challenges and opportunities lie ahead in both the short and longer term. State of Sector 2011, alongside the ongoing series of TIA Insights and other consultations that TIA is undertaking in its research work programme, is aimed at informing participants at the Tourism Summit taking place in Wellington on 13 July 2011. This information is a key driver in assisting with the development of the 2011 Tourism Industry Election Manifesto. State of the Sector 2011 also ultimately provides a current view of the tourism sector for those within the industry and for external stakeholders who have an interest in tourism in New Zealand.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Mention the words "earthquake" in the same brief as "remediation" and it's enough to strike fear in the hearts of all New Zealanders, particularly those in Christchurch and other earthquake prone areas of the country. Now we find the chances of the ground shaking more violently in a quake is much higher than previously thought for large parts of the country. In some places it has doubled or even trebled. What are the ramifications of this new found knowledge? Joining the show to discuss is Michelle Grant, President of the Structural Engineering Society New Zealand, and Matt Gerstenberger, Principal Scientist and Seismologist at GNS Science

Audio, Radio New Zealand

An earthquake engineering expert wants to change the way we predict how the ground will shake during an earthquake. Professor Brendon Bradley from the University of Canterbury is the recipient of a Marsden Fund grant to accelerate his research into seismic hazard analysis and forecasting. He says the idea is to get to a point where they can provide the same sort of information as a weather forecast. Professor Bradley says just like a severe weather warning, engineers would be able to provide information about severe ground shaking, how it varies locally in each city or suburb, and the likely consequence to buildings. Kathryn speaks to Professor Brendon Bradley, the director of Te Hirangu Ru QuakeCoRE - The New Zealand Centre for Earthquake Resilience.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

The family of a Christchurch earthquake victim wants the Royal Commission to investigate all Search and Rescue efforts during the disaster. The Government faces a higher-than-forecast Budget deficit.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Shows a graph illustrating the 'Growth forecast' for the economy. A large finger representing the 'Reserve Bank' squashes the growth arrow as though it is a fly and it starts to zig-zag crazily downwards. The statement made 16th September looked a shadow of the bright one the Reserve Bank published three months ago. With its forecasts finalised the day before the Canterbury earthquake struck, the Bank has taken secateurs to its economic growth track, and a carving knife to its interest rate path. Instead of GDP growth pushing 4% this year and next, for example, it now struggles to reach 3% in each. It's tempting to think this has been driven by the wobbling international news over recent months. In fact it's been because of a suddenly sombre view around NZ consumer spending and the housing market. (Interest.co.nz) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

A weather map of New Zealand is shown beset with dreadful weather conditions that include cyclones and lightning strikes; there is also earthquake activity round the Canterbury region. Text reads 'Mother Nature's wild child... but who's the father?' Refers to the Canterbury earthquake of 4th September 2010 and the spring storms with wind, rain and snow in recent weeks. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

A weather map of New Zealand is shown beset with dreadful weather conditions that include cyclones and lightning strikes; there is also earthquake activity around the Canterbury region. Text reads 'Now all we need is a plague of locusts...' Refers to the Canterbury earthquake of 4th September 2010 and the spring storms with wind, rain and snow in recent weeks. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

A weather map of New Zealand is shown beset with dreadful weather conditions that include cyclones and lightning strikes; there is also earthquake activity around the Canterbury region. Text reads 'Was it something we said?...' Refers to the Canterbury earthquake of 4th September 2010 and the spring storms with wind, rain and snow in recent weeks. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Topics - A big study from Harvard and UC Berkeley has looked back into family trees, over centuries, to determine how social mobility has changed. The "Moon man" has used his claimed Christchurch earthquake predictions to defeat an Advertising Standards Authority complaint over his weather forecasting website. The Prime Minister John Key says Labour's flat performance in recent polls is because it's focusing on the wrong issues.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Peter Townsend is the Chief Executive of the Canterbury Employers' Chamber of Commerce. He is part of the official reconstruction group. Geert van de Vorsten Bosch is the emergency Centre Supervisor at Linwood High School which has been turned into an evacuation centre. Dr Ramon Pink is the Canterbury medical officer of health. Metservice duty forecaster Heath Gullery speaks about the possible weather issues Canterbury may soon experience.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

In the first seven of eight frames astrologer Ken Moon predicts a 'black day ahead', a 'day of great shaking' and 'terror' and 'children crying' and 'people fleeing' and 'a day in May'. In the last frame people realize that he has seen, not an earthquake, but the budget. Context - After the two big earthquakes in Christchurch on 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011, the so-called Moon Man, Ken Ring, backed away from his prediction that Christchurch would be whacked by a huge earthquake on the 20th of March 2011. His claims terrified Cantabrians and led to people fleeing Christchurch. The 2011 budget will be announced in May and predictions are that it will be a cost-cutting one because of New Zealand's debt, partially caused by the Christchurch earthquakes. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The Tourism Industry Association New Zealand’s (TIA) annual State of the Tourism Sector 2012 has been prepared in partnership with Lincoln University. The objective of this is to understand better how the tourism sector sees its future and what challenges and opportunities lie ahead in both the short and longer term. State of the Tourism Sector 2012 provides a current view of the tourism sector for those within the industry and for external stakeholders who have an interest in tourism in New Zealand.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

1. Dr RUSSEL NORMAN to the Minister of Trade: Does he still consider that the United States will benefit from being part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership; if so, how? 2. Hon PHIL GOFF to the Prime Minister: Does he believe that all persons who have served as Ministers in his Government have met the requirement of the Cabinet Manual to behave in a way that upholds, and is seen to uphold, the highest ethical standards in their ministerial capacity, their political capacity and their personal capacity; if so, why? 3. CRAIG FOSS to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received on the Government's financial position? 4. Hon ANNETTE KING to the Minister of Tourism: How many full-time permanent jobs has his cycleway project created? 5. JONATHAN YOUNG to the Minister for Communications and Information Technology: What progress has been made on the Ultra-fast broadband initiative? 6. Hon TREVOR MALLARD to the Minister of Education: Which ministers, if any, did she personally consult with on the question of removing the requirement for police checks for employees of limited attendance early childhood centres before she introduced the Education Amendment Bill (No 2)? 7. AARON GILMORE to the Minister of Revenue: What examples can he give of families claiming social assistance for which they are not entitled and what has this Government done to stop this abuse? 8. Hon DAVID CUNLIFFE to the Minister of Finance: How much lower will the growth forecast be for the year to March 2011 in the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update compared with the Budget 2010 forecast? 9. SHANE ARDERN to the Minister of Agriculture: What recent actions has the Government taken to improve the welfare of pigs in New Zealand? 10. Hon RUTH DYSON to the Minister of Health: Will he act to prevent closure of health services in Taihape? 11. AMY ADAMS to the Minister for Land Information: What steps has Land Information New Zealand taken to help in the rebuilding of Canterbury following the 4 September earthquake? 12. Hon DARREN HUGHES to the Minister of Transport: Which project has the higher benefit cost ratio: the Auckland CBD rail loop or the Puhoi to Wellsford Road of National Significance?

Audio, Radio New Zealand

TE URUROA FLAVELL to the Minister of Conservation: Does he agree with Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, Dr Jan Wright, that joint decision-making with the Minister for Energy and Resources on mining the conservation estate undermines the role of the Minister of Conservation as guardian of that estate, and how will he respond to her advice to Parliament that conservation should take precedence? Hon DAVID CUNLIFFE to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his statement that "for most New Zealanders an indicator of how well the economy is doing is whether or not they can keep up with the cost of living"; if so, is he satisfied that they currently can? Hon TAU HENARE to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received on inequality in New Zealand, and how do recent changes in trends compare to other countries? Hon DAVID PARKER to the Minister of Finance: Does he agree with BERL that "outside of dairy and forestry, export receipts have effectively flatlined since April 2009" and that "The risks inherent in such a narrowing of our export base should be of concern to all"; if not, why not? Dr CAM CALDER to the Minister for Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment: What announcements has he made about the Māori and Pasifika Trades Training initiative? Dr RUSSEL NORMAN to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his Government's decisions? PAUL FOSTER-BELL to the Minister of Housing: What progress has he made with local government in securing Housing Accords under the legislation passed last year, and how are they increasing the supply and affordability of housing? Hon ANNETTE KING to the Minister of Health: What was the original forecast cost for Health Benefits Limited and what is the revised forecast cost now, if any? MAGGIE BARRY to the Minister of Education: What recent announcements has she made on the Government's $359 million investment to raise student achievement? Hon RUTH DYSON to the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery: How much has the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority spent on legal fees in the last 3 years? DENIS O'ROURKE to the Minister of Transport: When will the Government provide a comprehensive and integrated land transport plan for New Zealand? PAUL GOLDSMITH to the Minister of Revenue: What is the objective of the Government's recently announced Taxpayer's Simplification Panel?

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Unreinforced masonry (URM) structures comprise a majority of the global built heritage. The masonry heritage of New Zealand is comparatively younger to its European counterparts. In a country facing frequent earthquakes, the URM buildings are prone to extensive damage and collapse. The Canterbury earthquake sequence proved the same, causing damage to over _% buildings. The ability to assess the severity of building damage is essential for emergency response and recovery. Following the Canterbury earthquakes, the damaged buildings were categorized into various damage states using the EMS-98 scale. This article investigates machine learning techniques such as k-nearest neighbors, decision trees, and random forests, to rapidly assess earthquake-induced building damage. The damage data from the Canterbury earthquake sequence is used to obtain the forecast model, and the performance of each machine learning technique is evaluated using the remaining (test) data. On getting a high accuracy the model is then run for building database collected for Dunedin to predict expected damage during the rupture of the Akatore fault.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

METIRIA TUREI to the Minister of Education: In relation to the proposed school closures in Christchurch, does she agree with Manning Intermediate head Richard Chambers that "The Minister promised us that we would have two years no matter what. It was a guarantee she made to our community repeatedly, it was unequivocal"? MAGGIE BARRY to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received on the New Zealand economy? DAVID SHEARER to the Prime Minister: Does he have confidence in all his Ministers? Dr CAM CALDER to the Minister of Education: In the context of the Government's Christchurch schools announcement, what is the process going forward? Hon CLAYTON COSGROVE to the Minister for Building and Construction: Does he believe that the contracting system currently used in the construction industry works appropriately and fairly in circumstances of insolvency; if so, why? NICKY WAGNER to the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery: What progress is being made on making the Christchurch city centre safe for rebuilding? IAIN LEES-GALLOWAY to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements on withdrawing troops from Afghanistan? TIM MACINDOE to the Minister of Science and Innovation: How is the Government focussing New Zealand's science funding investment, and encouraging Kiwis to get involved in science? DAVID SHEARER to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements? ALFRED NGARO to the Minister for the Community and Voluntary Sector: What recent announcements has she made regarding government support for volunteering? EUGENIE SAGE to the Minister of Local Government: Does he have any concerns about the Hawkes Bay Regional Council's forecast of 530 percent increase in its debt by 2021/22? Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS to the Prime Minister: Does he still have confidence in the Associate Minister of Health; if so, why?

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Since the early 1980s seismic hazard assessment in New Zealand has been based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The most recent version of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model, a PSHA model, was published by Stirling et al, in 2012. This model follows standard PSHA principals and combines a nation-wide model of active faults with a gridded point-source model based on the earthquake catalogue since 1840. These models are coupled with the ground-motion prediction equation of McVerry et al (2006). Additionally, we have developed a time-dependent clustering-based PSHA model for the Canterbury region (Gerstenberger et al, 2014) in response to the Canterbury earthquake sequence. We are now in the process of revising that national model. In this process we are investigating several of the fundamental assumptions in traditional PSHA and in how we modelled hazard in the past. For this project, we have three main focuses: 1) how do we design an optimal combination of multiple sources of information to produce the best forecast of earthquake rates in the next 50 years: can we improve upon a simple hybrid of fault sources and background sources, and can we better handle the uncertainties in the data and models (e.g., fault segmentation, frequency-magnitude distributions, time-dependence & clustering, low strain-rate areas, and subduction zone modelling)? 2) developing revised and new ground-motion predictions models including better capturing of epistemic uncertainty – a key focus in this work is developing a new strong ground motion catalogue for model development; and 3) how can we best quantify if changes we have made in our modelling are truly improvements? Throughout this process we are working toward incorporating numerical modelling results from physics based synthetic seismicity and ground-motion models.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Oarai is a coastal town in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. The disaster severely damaged local industries, and the local tourism sector faced a sharp decline followed the event. To overcome the conundrum, the local tourism businesses have taken the opportunity to collaborate with an anime called Girls und Panzer, which has been developed by an external animation production studio. This collaboration has resulted in huge success, and the drop in the local tourism industry had been largely reversed, but has resulted in a significant change to the tourism system. This thesis explores the activities and outcomes of this tourism industry reimagining. A mixed-method approach was used to investigate the perception of local tourism businesses to the current Oarai tourism system, and examine the transformative effect of the disaster and its aftermath. Perceptions of disaster impact and anime tourism development were analysed through surveys (n=73) and interviews (n=2) which focused on tourism business operators, while participant observation was conducted to create the image of anime tourism operation in Oarai. Results show that the development of anime tourism in Oarai successfully helped the local tourism businesses to recover from the disaster. As new agencies and organisations joined the anime tourism network, anime tourism increased communication between stakeholders, and improved the resilience of the community. The new tourism development has transformed the local tourism industry, to some extent, however. the future trajectory of anime tourism in Oarai is difficult to forecast, and there is scope for longitudinal research of this tourism system.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Hon DAVID CUNLIFFE to the Prime Minister: Is he still committed to "ensuring our schools are working for all students", and is he satisfied his Government has done enough to ensure that every child has equal access to a low-cost public education? CLAUDETTE HAUITI to the Minister of Finance: What steps has the Government taken to turn around the Treasury's forecast net Government debt? METIRIA TUREI to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements? Hon DAVID PARKER to the Minister of Finance: Does he agree with Infometrics that after the Canterbury rebuild peaks, the New Zealand economy will experience a "hangover" with slow income and GDP growth? SCOTT SIMPSON to the Minister of Justice: What justice initiatives has she announced to address family violence in New Zealand? DAVID SHEARER to the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade: When did he first become aware of allegations that led to a Malaysian diplomat being charged with assault with the intent to commit rape and burglary, and what actions did he take? MARK MITCHELL to the Minister of Corrections: What recent announcements has she made on how technology can be used to better protect victims of domestic violence? JAN LOGIE to the Minister of Foreign Affairs: Was he made aware of the wishes, if any, of the woman at the centre of the assault with intent to rape charges laid against a Malaysian diplomat, regarding his return to Malaysia; if so, when? JONATHAN YOUNG to the Minister of Health: What investments has the Government made in health services for Taranaki? CHRIS HIPKINS to the Minister of Education: Is she satisfied that schools receive sufficient funding to deliver the New Zealand curriculum? KANWALJIT SINGH BAKSHI to the Minister for Food Safety: What recent announcements has she made regarding food labelling? DENIS O'ROURKE to the Minister responsible for the Earthquake Commission: Is he satisfied with the progress of the Earthquake Commission in the settlement or disposition of all claims in respect of multi-unit dwellings, arising from the Canterbury earthquake; if so, why?

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Hon PAULA BENNETT to the Prime Minister: Does she stand by all her statements? Dr DEBORAH RUSSELL to the Minister of Finance: What does the Treasury’s 2018 Investment Statement show about the state of the Government’s balance sheet? Hon AMY ADAMS to the Minister of Finance: How much capital expenditure is this Government forecast to spend in the period 2018-2022 compared to the previous Government over these same years, and how much of the difference is funded by an increase in debt? Hon PAUL GOLDSMITH to the Minister for Economic Development: Does this Government have a broad economic development strategy; if so, what is it? Dr DUNCAN WEBB to the Minister responsible for the Earthquake Commission: What announcements has the Government made about changes to how the Earthquake Commission operates? Hon DAVID BENNETT to the Minister of Corrections: Does he stand by his statement on the Marae programme that “the problem right now is that corrections doesn’t have any flexibility…we’re in a real bind”? Hon SCOTT SIMPSON to the Associate Minister for the Environment: Does she agree with the statements in the Annual Report of the Environmental Protection Authority, “we have our share of science deniers, who oppose fluoride, 1080, vaccinations, glyphosate, genetic modification, and much more” and “our Chief Scientist is prominent in emphasising the evidence, data, and science that underpins EPA decision making”; if so, why? JENNY MARCROFT to the Minister for Regional Economic Development: What recent announcements has he made pertaining to the Provincial Growth Fund? SIMEON BROWN to the Minister of Justice: Should maximum legislated sentences reflect the seriousness of the crime committed? Hon NICKY WAGNER to the Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration: Does she stand by all her answers to written questions? ANGIE WARREN-CLARK to the Minister for the Environment: What does he think New Zealanders have to celebrate on World Water Day? MELISSA LEE to the Minister of Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media: Does she stand by all her Government’s policies and actions in the Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media portfolio?

Audio, Radio New Zealand

DAVID SHEARER to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements? PAUL GOLDSMITH to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received on the performance of the public service? Dr RUSSEL NORMAN to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his statement about asset sales that it was the Governments intention that “every New Zealander who wants shares gets them”? SIMON O'CONNOR to the Minister for Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment: What progress has been made in expanding the Youth Guarantee Scheme to provide more 16 and 17 year-olds with fees-free tertiary training this year? Hon DAVID CUNLIFFE to the Minister for Economic Development: Does he stand by his statement that “the global financial crisis and the Canterbury earthquakes were not projected in any of those forecasts”? Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS to the Minister of Local Government: Has he been in communication with the Auckland Council over financial management issues, and if so, on what occasions this year? MIKE SABIN to the Minister for Social Development: How will the Government’s recently announced changes target young people not in education, employment or training? DENISE ROCHE to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his comment that the Government has a “sinking lid policy” for pokie machines? Hon CLAYTON COSGROVE to the Minister of Finance: Does he stand by the statement made on his behalf in answer to Oral Question No 1 on 1 March 2012, that “I do know what is in the coalition agreement” and, if so, does he agree that the United Future-National confidence and supply agreement does not require United Future to vote for the Government’s asset sales legislation? TODD McCLAY to the Associate Minister of Conservation: What benefits will the Game Animal Council Bill bring for recreational hunters? Hon ANNETTE KING to the Minister of Housing: What response has he received to the “Smarter. Faster. Fairer” tenancy service which provides an 0800 phone customer service centre response to people with housing needs? JAMI-LEE ROSS to the Minister for ACC: What initiatives are underway to help raise awareness about falls in the home?  

Audio, Radio New Zealand

DAVID SHEARER to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his statement "I am deeply concerned about every child in New Zealand who is in poverty"; if so, why has the number of children living in material hardship grown under his watch? TODD McCLAY to the Minister of Finance: What measures has the Government taken to support vulnerable New Zealanders through the aftermath of the domestic recession and global financial crisis? METIRIA TUREI to the Prime Minister: When he said "we don't want to see any New Zealand child suffer … children don't get to make choices, they're often the victim of circumstance" does that mean he will take tangible steps to ensure children don't suffer because of circumstances beyond their control? Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS to the Prime Minister: Does he have confidence in the Minister of Immigration? Hon DAVID PARKER to the Minister of Finance: Compared to 2012, does the Reserve Bank forecast the New Zealand dollar (as measured by the Trade Weighted Index) to strengthen or weaken in the next two years, and does he believe this will make New Zealand exporters more competitive or less competitive? DAVID BENNETT to the Minister for Economic Development: How is the Government encouraging the sustainable use of natural resources to support jobs and grow the economy? Hon MARYAN STREET to the Minister of Health: Is he satisfied with the state of children's health in New Zealand; if not, why not? COLIN KING to the Minister of Energy and Resources: What recent announcement has he made about Block Offer 2012? EUGENIE SAGE to the Minister for the Environment: Does she agree with the New Zealand Freshwater Sciences Society in relation to freshwater that "failure to act with decisiveness and urgency risks further environmental degradation and erosion of our international environmental reputation"; if not, why not? Hon LIANNE DALZIEL to the Minister for Building and Construction: How quickly will he respond to the building performance, assessment and construction recommendations of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Building Failure caused by the Canterbury Earthquakes? NICKY WAGNER to the Minister for Building and Construction: What is the Government doing in response to the Canterbury Earthquakes Royal Commission's full report? CLARE CURRAN to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements?