“much of what we know about leadership is today redundant because it is literally designed for a different operating model, a different context, a different time” (Pascale, Sternin, & Sternin, p. 4). This thesis describes a project that was designed with a focus on exploring ways to enhance leadership capacity in non-government organisations operating in Christchurch, New Zealand. It included 20 CEOs, directors and managers from organisations that cover a range of settings, including education, recreation, and residential and community therapeutic support; all working with adolescents. The project involved the creation of a peer-supported professional learning community that operated for 14 months; the design and facilitation of which was informed by the Appreciative Inquiry principles of positive focus and collaboration. At the completion of the research project in February 2010, the leaders decided to continue their collective processes as a self-managing and sustaining professional network that has grown and in 2014 is still flourishing under the title LYNGO (Leaders of Youth focussed NGOs). Two compelling findings emerged from this research project. The first of these relates to efficacy of a complexity thinking framework to inform the actions of these leaders. The leaders in this project described the complexity thinking framework as the most relevant, resonant and dynamic approach that they encountered throughout the research project. As such this thesis explores this complexity thinking informed leadership in detail as the leaders participating in this project believed it offers an opportune alternative to more traditional forms of positional leadership and organisational approaches. This exploration is more than simply a rationale for complexity thinking but an iterative in-depth exploration of ‘complexity leadership in action’ which in Chapter 6 elaborates on detailed leadership tools and frameworks for creating the conditions for self-organisation and emergence. The second compelling finding relates to efficacy of Appreciative Inquiry as an emergent research and development process for leadership learning. In particular the adoption of two key principles; positive focus and inclusivity were beneficial in guiding the responsive leadership learning process that resulted in a professional learning community that exhibited high engagement and sustainability. Additionally, the findings suggest that complexity thinking not only acts as a contemporary framework for adaptive leadership of organisations as stated above; but that complexity thinking has much to offer as a framework for understanding leadership development processes through the application of Appreciative Inquiry (AI)-based principles. A consideration of the components associated with complexity thinking has promise for innovation and creativity in the development of leaders and also in the creation of networks of learning. This thesis concludes by suggesting that leaders focus on creating hybrid organisations, ones which leverage the strengths (and minimise the limitations) of self-organising complexity-informed organisational processes, while at the same time retaining many of the strengths of more traditional organisational management structures. This approach is applied anecdotally to the place where this study was situated: the post-earthquake recovery of Christchurch, New Zealand.
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a tool offers opportunities for modeling the inherent complexity and uncertainty associated with socio-environmental systems. This study draws on New Zealand ski fields (multiple locations) as socio- environmental systems while considering their perceived resilience to low probability but potential high consequences catastrophic natural events (specifically earthquakes). We gathered data at several ski fields using a mixed methodology including: geomorphic assessment, qualitative interviews, and an adaptation of Ozesmi and Ozesmi’s (2003) multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) approach. The data gathered from FCM are qualitatively condensed, and aggregated to three different participant social groups. The social groups include ski fields users, ski industry workers, and ski field managers. Both quantitative and qualitative indices are used to analyze social cognitive maps to identify critical nodes for ANN simulations. The simulations experiment with auto-associative neural networks for developing adaptive preparation, response and recovery strategies. Moreover, simulations attempt to identify key priorities for preparation, response, and recovery for improving resilience to earthquakes in these complex and dynamic environments. The novel mixed methodology is presented as a means of linking physical and social sciences in high complexity, high uncertainty socio-environmental systems. Simulation results indicate that participants perceived that increases in Social Preparation Action, Social Preparation Resources, Social Response Action and Social Response Resources have a positive benefit in improving the resilience to earthquakes of ski fields’ stakeholders.
The use of post-earthquake cordons as a tool to support emergency managers after an event has been documented around the world. However, there is limited research that attempts to understand the use, effectiveness, inherent complexities, impacts and subsequent consequences of cordoning once applied. This research aims to fill that gap by providing a detailed understanding of first, the cordons and associated processes, and their implications in a post-earthquake scenario. We use a qualitative method to understand cordons through case studies of two cities where it was used in different temporal and spatial scales: Christchurch (2011) and Wellington (Kaikōura earthquake 2016), New Zealand. Data was collected through 21 expert interviews obtained through purposive and snowball sampling of key informants who were directly or indirectly involved in a decision-making role and/or had influence in relation to the cordoning process. The participants were from varying backgrounds and roles i.e. emergency managers, council members, business representatives, insurance representatives, police and communication managers. The data was transcribed, coded in Nvivo and then grouped based on underlying themes and concepts and then analyzed inductively. It is found that cordons are used primarily as a tool to control access for the purpose of life safety and security. But cordons can also be adapted to support recovery. Broadly, it can be synthesized and viewed based on two key aspects, ‘decision-making’ and ‘operations and management’, which overlap and interact as part of a complex system. The underlying complexity arises in large part due to the multitude of sectors it transcends such as housing, socio-cultural requirements, economics, law, governance, insurance, evacuation, available resources etc. The complexity further increases as the duration of cordon is extended.
The research is funded by Callaghan Innovation (grant number MAIN1901/PROP-69059-FELLOW-MAIN) and the Ministry of Transport New Zealand in partnership with Mainfreight Limited. Need – The freight industry is facing challenges related to climate change, including natural hazards and carbon emissions. These challenges impact the efficiency of freight networks, increase costs, and negatively affect delivery times. To address these challenges, freight logistics modelling should consider multiple variables, such as natural hazards, sustainability, and emission reduction strategies. Freight operations are complex, involving various factors that contribute to randomness, such as the volume of freight being transported, the location of customers, and truck routes. Conventional methods have limitations in simulating a large number of variables. Hence, there is a need to develop a method that can incorporate multiple variables and support freight sustainable development. Method - A minimal viable model (MVM) method was proposed to elicit tacit information from industrial clients for building a minimally sufficient simulation model at the early modelling stages. The discrete-event simulation (DES) method was applied using Arena® software to create simulation models for the Auckland and Christchurch corridor, including regional pick-up and delivery (PUD) models, Christchurch city delivery models, and linehaul models. Stochastic variables in freight operations such as consignment attributes, customer locations, and truck routes were incorporated in the simulation. The geographic information system (GIS) software ArcGIS Pro® was used to identify and analyse industrial data. The results obtained from the GIS software were applied to create DES models. Life cycle assessment (LCA) models were developed for both diesel and battery electric (BE) trucks to compare their life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and total cost of ownership (TCO) and support GHG emissions reduction. The line-haul model also included natural hazards in several scenarios, and the simulation was used to forecast the stock level of Auckland and Christchurch depots in response to each corresponding scenario. Results – DES is a powerful technique that can be employed to simulate and evaluate freight operations that exhibit high levels of variability, such as regional pickup and delivery (PUD) and linehaul. Through DES, it becomes possible to analyse multiple factors within freight operations, including transportation modes, routes, scheduling, and processing times, thereby offering valuable insights into the performance, efficiency, and reliability of the system. In addition, GIS is a useful tool for analysing and visualizing spatial data in freight operations. This is exemplified by their ability to simulate the travelling salesman problem (TSP) and conduct cluster analysis. Consequently, the integration of GIS into DES modelling is essential for improving the accuracy and reliability of freight operations analysis. The outcomes of the simulation were utilised to evaluate the ecological impact of freight transport by performing emission calculations and generating low-carbon scenarios to identify approaches for reducing the carbon footprint. LCA models were developed based on simulation results. Results showed that battery-electric trucks (BE) produced more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the cradle phase due to battery manufacturing but substantially less GHG emissions in the use phase because of New Zealand's mostly renewable energy sources. While the transition to BE could significantly reduce emissions, the financial aspect is not compelling, as the total cost of ownership (TCO) for the BE truck was about the same for ten years, despite a higher capital investment for the BE. Moreover, external incentives are necessary to justify a shift to BE trucks. By using simulation methods, the effectiveness of response plans for natural hazards can be evaluated, and the system's vulnerabilities can be identified and mitigated to minimize the risk of disruption. Simulation models can also be utilized to simulate adaptation plans to enhance the system's resilience to natural disasters. Novel contributions – The study employed a combination of DES and GIS methods to incorporate a large number of stochastic variables and driver’s decisions into freight logistics modelling. Various realistic operational scenarios were simulated, including customer clustering and PUD truck allocation. This showed that complex pickup and delivery routes with high daily variability can be represented using a model of roads and intersections. Geographic regions of high customer density, along with high daily variability could be represented by a two-tier architecture. The method could also identify delivery runs for a whole city, which has potential usefulness in market expansion to new territories. In addition, a model was developed to address carbon emissions and total cost of ownership of battery electric trucks. This showed that the transition was not straightforward because the economics were not compelling, and that policy interventions – a variety were suggested - could be necessary to encourage the transition to decarbonised freight transport. A model was developed to represent the effect of natural disasters – such as earthquake and climate change – on road travel and detour times in the line haul freight context for New Zealand. From this it was possible to predict the effects on stock levels for a variety of disruption scenarios (ferry interruption, road detours). Results indicated that some centres rather than others may face higher pressure and longer-term disturbance after the disaster subsided. Remedies including coastal shipping were modelled and shown to have the potential to limit the adverse effects. A philosophical contribution was the development of a methodology to adapt the agile method into the modelling process. This has the potential to improve the clarification of client objectives and the validity of the resulting model.
This thesis studies the behaviour of diaphragms in multi-storey timber buildings by providing methods for the estimation of the diaphragm force demand, developing an Equivalent Truss Method for the analysis of timber diaphragms, and experimentally investigating the effects of displacement incompatibilities between the diaphragm and the lateral load resisting system and developing methods for their mitigation. The need to better understand the behaviour of diaphragms in timber buildings was highlighted by the recent 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake series, where a number of diaphragms in traditional concrete buildings performed poorly, compromising the lateral load resistance of the structure. Although shortcomings in the estimation of force demand, and in the analysis and design of concrete floor diaphragms have already been partially addressed by other researchers, the behaviour of diaphragms in modern multi-storey timber buildings in general, and in low damage Pres-Lam buildings (consisting of post-tensioned timber members) in particular is still unknown. The recent demand of mid-rise commercial timber buildings of ten storeys and beyond has further highlighted the lack of appropriate methods to analyse timber diaphragms with irregular floor geometries and large spans made of both light timber framing and massive timber panels. Due to the lower stiffness of timber lateral load resisting systems, compared with traditional construction materials, and the addition of in-plane flexible diaphragms, the effect of higher modes on the global dynamic behaviour of a structure becomes more critical. The results from a parametric non-linear time-history analysis on a series of timber frame and wall structures showed increased storey shear and moment demands even for four storey structures when compared to simplistic equivalent static analysis. This effect could successfully be predicted with methods available in literature. The presence of diaphragm flexibility increased diaphragm inter-storey drifts and the peak diaphragm demand in stiff wall structures, but had less influence on the storey shears and moments. Diaphragm force demands proved to be significantly higher than the forces derived from equivalent static analysis, leading to potentially unsafe designs. It is suggested to design all diaphragms for the same peak demand; a simplified approach to estimate these diaphragm forces is proposed for both frame and wall structures. Modern architecture often requires complex floor geometries with long spans leading to stress concentrations, high force demands and potentially large deformations in the diaphragms. There is a lack of guidance and regulation regarding the analysis and design of timber diaphragms and a practical alternative to the simplistic equivalent deep beam analysis or costly finite element modelling is required. An Equivalent Truss Method for the analysis of both light timber framed and massive timber diaphragms is proposed, based on analytical formulations and verified against finite element models. With this method the panel unit shear forces (shear flow) and therefore the fastener demand, chord forces and reaction forces can be evaluated. Because the panel stiffness and fastener stiffness are accounted for, diaphragm deflection, torsional effects and transfer forces can also be assessed. The proposed analysis method is intuitive and can be used with basic analysis software. If required, it can easily be adapted for the use with diaphragms working in the non-linear range. Damage to floor diaphragms resulting from displacement incompatibilities due to frame elongation or out-of plane deformation of walls can compromise the transfer of inertial forces to the lateral load resisting system as well as the stability of other structural elements. Two post-tensioned timber frame structures under quasi-static cyclic and dynamic load, respectively, were tested with different diaphragm panel layouts and connections investigating their ability to accommodate frame elongations. Additionally, a post-tensioned timber wall was loaded under horizontal cyclic loads through two pairs of collector beams. Several different connection details between the wall and the beams were tested, and no damage to the collector beams or connections was observed in any of the tests. To evaluate the increased strength and stiffness due to the wall-beam interaction an analytical procedure is presented. Finally, a timber staircase core was tested under bi-directional loading. Different connection details were used to study the effect of displacement incompatibilities between the orthogonal collector beams. These experiments showed that floor damage due to displacement incompatibilities can be prevented, even with high levels of lateral drift, by the flexibility of well-designed connections and the flexibility of the timber elements. It can be concluded that the flexibility of timber members and the flexibility of their connections play a major role in the behaviour of timber buildings in general and of diaphragms specifically under seismic loads. The increased flexibility enhances higher mode effects and alters the diaphragm force demand. Simple methods are provided to account for this effect on the storey shear, moment and drift demands as well as the diaphragm force demands. The analysis of light timber framing and massive timber diaphragms can be successfully analysed with an Equivalent Truss Method, which is calibrated by accounting for the panel shear and fastener stiffnesses. Finally, displacement incompatibilities in frame and wall structures can be accommodated by the flexibilities of the diaphragm panels and relative connections. A design recommendations chapter summarizes all findings and allows a designer to estimate diaphragm forces, to analyse the force path in timber diaphragms and to detail the connections to allow for displacement incompatibilities in multi-storey timber buildings.
One of the great challenges facing human systems today is how to prepare for, manage, and adapt successfully to the profound and rapid changes wreaked by disasters. Wellington, New Zealand, is a capital city at significant risk of devastating earthquake and tsunami, potentially requiring mass evacuations with little or short notice. Subsequent hardship and suffering due to widespread property damage and infrastructure failure could cause large areas of the Wellington Region to become uninhabitable for weeks to months. Previous research has shown that positive health and well-being are associated with disaster-resilient outcomes. Preventing adverse outcomes before disaster strikes, through developing strengths-based skill sets in health-protective attitudes and behaviours, is increasingly advocated in disaster research, practise, and management. This study hypothesised that well-being constructs involving an affective heuristic play vital roles in pathways to resilience as proximal determinants of health-protective behaviours. Specifically, this study examined the importance of health-related quality of life and subjective well-being in motivating evacuation preparedness, measured in a community sample (n=695) drawn from the general adult population of Wellington’s isolated eastern suburbs. Using a quantitative epidemiological approach, the study measured the prevalence of key quality of life indicators (physical and mental health, emotional well-being or “Sense of Coherence”, spiritual well-being, social well-being, and life satisfaction) using validated psychometric scales; analysed the strengths of association between these indicators and the level of evacuation preparedness at categorical and continuous levels of measurement; and tested the predictive power of the model to explain the variance in evacuation preparedness activity. This is the first study known to examine multi-dimensional positive health and global well-being as resilient processes for engaging in evacuation preparedness behaviour. A cross-sectional study design and quantitative survey were used to collect self-report data on the study variables; a postal questionnaire was fielded between November 2008 and March 2009 to a sampling frame developed through multi-stage cluster randomisation. The survey response rate was 28.5%, yielding a margin of error of +/- 3.8% with 95% confidence and 80% statistical power to detect a true correlation coefficient of 0.11 or greater. In addition to the primary study variables, data were collected on demographic and ancillary variables relating to contextual factors in the physical environment (risk perception of physical and personal vulnerability to disaster) and the social environment (through the construct of self-determination), and other measures of disaster preparedness. These data are reserved for future analyses. Results of correlational and regression analyses for the primary study variables show that Wellingtonians are highly individualistic in how their well-being influences their preparedness, and a majority are taking inadequate action to build their resilience to future disaster from earthquake- or tsunami-triggered evacuation. At a population level, the conceptual multi-dimensional model of health-related quality of life and global well-being tested in this study shows a positive association with evacuation preparedness at statistically significant levels. However, it must be emphasised that the strength of this relationship is weak, accounting for only 5-7% of the variability in evacuation preparedness. No single dimension of health-related quality of life or well-being stands out as a strong predictor of preparedness. The strongest associations for preparedness are in a positive direction for spiritual well-being, emotional well-being, and life satisfaction; all involve a sense of existential meaningfulness. Spiritual well-being is the only quality of life variable making a statistically significant unique contribution to explaining the variance observed in the regression models. Physical health status is weakly associated with preparedness in a negative direction at a continuous level of measurement. No association was found at statistically significant levels for mental health status and social well-being. These findings indicate that engaging in evacuation preparedness is a very complex, holistic, yet individualised decision-making process, and likely involves highly subjective considerations for what is personally relevant. Gender is not a factor. Those 18-24 years of age are least likely to prepare and evacuation preparedness increases with age. Multidimensional health and global well-being are important constructs to consider in disaster resilience for both pre-event and post-event timeframes. This work indicates a need for promoting self-management of risk and building resilience by incorporating a sense of personal meaning and importance into preparedness actions, and for future research into further understanding preparedness motivations.
