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Research papers, Lincoln University

Tree mortality is a fundamental process governing forest dynamics, but understanding tree mortality patterns is challenging because large, long-term datasets are required. Describing size-specific mortality patterns can be especially difficult, due to few trees in larger size classes. We used permanent plot data from Nothofagus solandri var. cliffortioides (mountain beech) forest on the eastern slopes of the Southern Alps, New Zealand, where the fates of trees on 250 plots of 0.04 ha were followed, to examine: (1) patterns of size-specific mortality over three consecutive periods spanning 30 years, each characterised by different disturbance, and (2) the strength and direction of neighbourhood crowding effects on sizespecific mortality rates. We found that the size-specific mortality function was U-shaped over the 30-year period as well as within two shorter periods characterised by small-scale pinhole beetle and windthrow disturbance. During a third period, characterised by earthquake disturbance, tree mortality was less size dependent. Small trees (,20 cm in diameter) were more likely to die, in all three periods, if surrounded by a high basal area of larger neighbours, suggesting that sizeasymmetric competition for light was a major cause of mortality. In contrast, large trees ($20 cm in diameter) were more likely to die in the first period if they had few neighbours, indicating that positive crowding effects were sometimes important for survival of large trees. Overall our results suggest that temporal variability in size-specific mortality patterns, and positive interactions between large trees, may sometimes need to be incorporated into models of forest dynamics.

Articles, UC QuakeStudies

A plan which outlines the processes and IT applications and services required to manage the SCIRT programme. The first version of this plan was produced on 9 August 2011.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Overview of SeisFinder SeisFinder is an open-source web service developed by QuakeCoRE and the University of Canterbury, focused on enabling the extraction of output data from computationally intensive earthquake resilience calculations. Currently, SeisFinder allows users to select historical or future events and retrieve ground motion simulation outputs for requested geographical locations. This data can be used as input for other resilience calculations, such as dynamic response history analysis. SeisFinder was developed using Django, a high-level python web framework, and uses a postgreSQL database. Because our large-scale computationally-intensive numerical ground motion simulations produce big data, the actual data is stored in file systems, while the metadata is stored in the database. The basic SeisFinder architecture is shown in Figure 1.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A poster in Kaiapoi showing the estimated timeframe for, and location of, likely residential land developments in Kaiapoi, the wider Waimakariri District and in the rural residential areas, based on major planning and subdivision applications with the Waimakariri Council as at February 2012.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Critical infrastructure networks are highly relied on by society such that any disruption to service can have major social and economic implications. Furthermore, these networks are becoming increasingly dependent on each other for normal operation such that an outage or asset failure in one system can easily propagate and cascade across others resulting in widespread disruptions in terms of both magnitude and spatial reach. It is the vulnerability of these networks to disruptions and the corresponding complexities in recovery processes which provide direction to this research. This thesis comprises studies contributing to two areas (i) the modelling of national scale in-terdependent infrastructure systems undergoing major disruptions, and (ii) the tracking and quantification of infrastructure network recovery trajectories following major disruptions. Firstly, methods are presented for identifying nationally significant systemic vulnerabilities and incorporating expert knowledge into the quantification of infrastructure interdependency mod-elling and simulation. With application to the interdependent infrastructures networks across New Zealand, the magnitudes and spatial extents of disruption are investigated. Results high-light the importance in considering interdependencies when assessing disruptive risks and vul-nerabilities in disaster planning applications and prioritising investment decisions for enhancing resilience of national networks. Infrastructure dependencies are further studied in the context of recovery from major disruptions through the analysis of curves measuring network functionality over time. Continued studies into the properties of recovery curves across a database of global natural disasters produce statistical models for predicting the trajectory and expected recovery times. Finally, the use of connectivity based metrics for quantifying infrastructure system functionality during recovery are considered with a case study application to the Christchurch Earthquake (February 22, 2011) wastewater network response

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Utility managers are always looking for appropriate tools to estimate seismic damage in wastewater networks located in earthquake prone areas. Fragility curves, as an appropriate tool, are recommended for seismic vulnerability analysis of buried pipelines, including pressurised and unpressurised networks. Fragility curves are developed in pressurised networks mainly for water networks. Fragility curves are also recommended for seismic analysis in unpressurised networks. Applying fragility curves in unpressurised networks affects accuracy of seismic damage estimation. This study shows limitations of these curves in unpressurised networks. Multiple case study analysis was applied to demonstrate the limitations of the application of fragility curves in unpressurised networks in New Zealand. Four wastewater networks within New Zealand were selected as case studies and various fragility curves used for seismic damage estimation. Observed damage in unpressurised networks after the 2007 earthquake in Gisborne and the 2010 earthquake in Christchurch demonstrate the appropriateness of the applied fragility curves to New Zealand wastewater networks. This study shows that the application of fragility curves, which are developed from pressurised networks, cannot be accurately used for seismic damage assessment in unpressurised wastewater networks. This study demonstrated the effects of different parameters on seismic damage vulnerability of unpressurised networks

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Existing unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings are often composed of traditional construction techniques, with poor connections between walls and diaphragms that results in poor performance when subjected to seismic actions. In these cases the application of the common equivalent static procedure is not applicable because it is not possible to assure “box like” behaviour of the structure. In such conditions the ultimate strength of the structure relies on the behaviour of the macro-elements that compose the deformation mechanisms of the whole structure. These macroelements are a single or combination of structural elements of the structure which are bonded one to each other. The Canterbury earthquake sequence was taken as a reference to estimate the most commonly occurring collapse mechanisms found in New Zealand URM buildings in order to define the most appropriate macroelements.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

This thesis presents the application of data science techniques, especially machine learning, for the development of seismic damage and loss prediction models for residential buildings. Current post-earthquake building damage evaluation forms are developed for a particular country in mind. The lack of consistency hinders the comparison of building damage between different regions. A new paper form has been developed to address the need for a global universal methodology for post-earthquake building damage assessment. The form was successfully trialled in the street ‘La Morena’ in Mexico City following the 2017 Puebla earthquake. Aside from developing a framework for better input data for performance based earthquake engineering, this project also extended current techniques to derive insights from post-earthquake observations. Machine learning (ML) was applied to seismic damage data of residential buildings in Mexico City following the 2017 Puebla earthquake and in Christchurch following the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES). The experience showcased that it is readily possible to develop empirical data only driven models that can successfully identify key damage drivers and hidden underlying correlations without prior engineering knowledge. With adequate maintenance, such models have the potential to be rapidly and easily updated to allow improved damage and loss prediction accuracy and greater ability for models to be generalised. For ML models developed for the key events of the CES, the model trained using data from the 22 February 2011 event generalised the best for loss prediction. This is thought to be because of the large number of instances available for this event and the relatively limited class imbalance between the categories of the target attribute. For the CES, ML highlighted the importance of peak ground acceleration (PGA), building age, building size, liquefaction occurrence, and soil conditions as main factors which affected the losses in residential buildings in Christchurch. ML also highlighted the influence of liquefaction on the buildings losses related to the 22 February 2011 event. Further to the ML model development, the application of post-hoc methodologies was shown to be an effective way to derive insights for ML algorithms that are not intrinsically interpretable. Overall, these provide a basis for the development of ‘greybox’ ML models

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Detailed studies on the sediment budget may reveal valuable insights into the successive build-up of the Canterbury Plains and their modification by Holocene fluvialaction connected to major braided rivers. Additionally, they bear implications beyond these fluvial aspects. Palaeoseismological studies claim to have detected signals of major Alpine Fault earthquakes in coastal environments along the eastern seaboard of the South Island (McFadgen and Goff, 2005). This requires high connectivity between the lower reaches of major braided rivers and their mountain catchments to generate immediate significant sediment pulses. It would be contradictory to the above mentioned hypothesis though. Obtaining better control on sediment budgets of braided rivers like the Waimakariri River will finally add significant value to multiple scientific and applied topics like regional resource management. An essential first step of sediment budget studies Is to systematically map the geomorphology, conventionally in the field and/or using remote-sensing applications, to localise, genetically identify, and classify landforms or entire toposequences of the area being investigated. In formerly glaciated mountain environments it is also indispensable to obtain all available chronological information supporting subsequent investigations.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Natural catastrophes are increasing worldwide. They are becoming more frequent but also more severe and impactful on our built environment leading to extensive damage and losses. Earthquake events account for the smallest part of natural events; nevertheless seismic damage led to the most fatalities and significant losses over the period 1981-2016 (Munich Re). Damage prediction is helpful for emergency management and the development of earthquake risk mitigation projects. Recent design efforts focused on the application of performance-based design engineering where damage estimation methodologies use fragility and vulnerability functions. However, the approach does not explicitly specify the essential criteria leading to economic losses. There is thus a need for an improved methodology that finds the critical building elements related to significant losses. The here presented methodology uses data science techniques to identify key building features that contribute to the bulk of losses. It uses empirical data collected on site during earthquake reconnaissance mission to train a machine learning model that can further be used for the estimation of building damage post-earthquake. The first model is developed for Christchurch. Empirical building damage data from the 2010-2011 earthquake events is analysed to find the building features that contributed the most to damage. Once processed, the data is used to train a machine-learning model that can be applied to estimate losses in future earthquake events.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

In this paper we apply Full waveform tomography (FWT) based on the Adjoint-Wavefield (AW) method to iteratively invert a 3-D geophysical velocity model for the Canterbury region (Lee, 2017) from a simple initial model. The seismic wavefields was generated using numerical solution of the 3-D elastodynamic/ visco- elastodynamic equations (EMOD3D was adopted (Graves, 1996)), and through the AW method, gradients of model parameters (compression and shear wave velocity) were computed by implementing the cross-adjoint of forward and backward wavefields. The reversed-in-time displacement residual was utilized as the adjoint source. For inversion, we also account for the near source/ station effects, gradient precondition, smoothening (Gaussian filter in spatial domain) and optimal step length. Simulation-to-observation misfit measurements based on 191 sources at 78 seismic stations in the Canterbury region (Figure 1) were used into our inversion. The inversion process includes multiple frequency bands, starting from 0-0.05Hz, and advancing to higher frequency bands (0-0.1Hz and 0-0.2Hz). Each frequency band was used for up to 10 iterations or no optimal step length found. After 3 FWT inversion runs, the simulated seismograms computed using our final model show a good matching with the observed seismograms at frequencies from 0 - 0.2 Hz and the normalized least-squared misfit error has been significantly reduced. Over all, the synthetic study of FWT shows a good application to improve the crustal velocity models from the existed geological models and the seismic data of the different earthquake events happened in the Canterbury region.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Seismic isolation is an effective technology for significantly reducing damage to buildings and building contents. However, its application to light-frame wood buildings has so far been unable to overcome cost and technical barriers such as susceptibility to movement during high-wind loading. The precursor to research in the field of isolation of residential buildings was the 1994 Northridge Earthquake (6.7 MW) in the United States and the 1995 Kobe Earthquake (6.9 MW) in Japan. While only a small number of lives were lost in residential buildings in these events, the economic impact was significant with over half of earthquake recovery costs given to repair and reconstruction of residential building damage. A value case has been explored to highlight the benefits of seismically isolated residential buildings compared to a standard fixed-base dwellings for the Wellington region. Loss data generated by insurance claim information from the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake has been used by researchers to determine vulnerability functions for the current light-frame wood building stock. By further considering the loss attributed to drift and acceleration sensitive components, and a simplified single degree of freedom (SDOF) building model, a method for determining vulnerability functions for seismic isolated buildings was developed. Vulnerability functions were then applied directly in a loss assessment using the GNS developed software, RiskScape. Vulnerability was shown to dramatically reduce for isolated buildings compared to an equivalent fixed-base building and as a result, the monetary savings in a given earthquake scenario were significant. This work is expected to drive further interest for development of solutions for the seismic isolation of residential dwellings, of which one option is further considered and presented herein.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

A non-destructive hardness testing method has been developed to investigate the amount of plastic strain demand in steel elements subjected to cyclic loading. The focus of this research is on application to the active links of eccentrically braced frames (EBFs), which are a commonly used seismic-resisting system in modern steel framed buildings. The 2010/2011 Christchurch earthquake series, especially the very intense February 22 shaking, which was the first earthquake worldwide to push complete EBF systems fully into their inelastic state, generating a moderate to high level of plastic strain in EBF active links, for a range of buildings from 3 to 23 storeys in height. This raised two important questions: 1) what was the extent of plastic deformation in active links; and 2) what effect does that have to post-earthquake steel properties? This project comprised determining a robust relationship between hardness and plastic strain in order to be able to answer the first question and provide the necessary input into answering the second question. A non-destructive Leeb (portable) hardness tester (model TH170) has been used to measure the hardness, in order to determine the plastic strain, in hot rolled steel universal sections and steel plates. A bench top Rockwell B was used to compare and validated the hardness measured by the portable hardness tester. Hardness was measured from monotonically strained tensile test specimens to identify the relationship between hardness and plastic strain demand. Test results confirmed a good relationship between hardness and the amount of monotonically induced plastic strain. Surface roughness was identified as an important parameter in obtaining reliable hardness readings from a portable hardness reader. A proper surface preparation method was established by using three different cleaning methods, finished with hand sanding to achieve surface roughness coefficients sufficiently low not to distort the results. This work showed that a test surface roughness (Ra) is not more than 1.6 micron meter (μm) is required for accurate readings from the TH170 tester. A case study on an earthquake affected building was carried out to identify the relationship between hardness and amount of plastic strain demand in cyclically deformed active links. Hardness was carried out from active links shown visually to have been the most affected during one of the major earthquake events. Onsite hardness test results were then compared with laboratory hardness test results. A good relationship between hardness from onsite and laboratory was observed between the test methods; Rockwell B bench top and portable Leeb tester TH170. Manufacturing induced plastic strain in the top and bottom of the webs of hot rolled sections were discovered from this research, an important result which explains why visual effects of earthquake induced active link yielding (eg cracked or flaking paint) was typically more prevalent over the middle half depth of the active link. The extent of this was quantified. It was also evident that the hardness readings from the portable hardness tester are influenced by geometry, mass effects and rigidity of the links. The final experimental stage was application of the method to full scale cyclic inelastic tested nominally identical active links subjected to loading regimes comprising constant and variable plastic strain demands. The links were cyclically loaded to achieve different plastic strain level. A novel Digital Image Correlation (DIC) technique was incorporated during the tests of this scale, to confirm the level of plastic strain achieved. Tensile test specimens were water jet cut from cyclically deformed webs to analyse the level of plastic strain. Test results show clear evidence that cyclically deformed structural steel elements show good correlation between hardness and the amount of plastic strain demand. DIC method was found to be reliable and accurate to check the level of plastic strain within cyclically deformed structural steel elements

Research papers, Lincoln University

Natural hazards continue to have adverse effects on communities and households worldwide, accelerating research on proactively identifying and enhancing characteristics associated with resilience. Although resilience is often characterized as a return to normal, recent studies of postdisaster recovery have highlighted the ways in which new opportunities can emerge following disruption, challenging the status quo. Conversely, recovery and reconstruction may serve to reinforce preexisting social, institutional, and development pathways. Our understanding of these dynamics is limited however by the small number of practice examples, particularly for rural communities in developed nations. This study uses a social–ecological inventory to document the drivers, pathways, and mechanisms of resilience following a large-magnitude earthquake in Kaikōura, a coastal community in Aotearoa New Zealand. As part of the planning and implementation phase of a multiyear project, we used the tool as the basis for indepth and contextually sensitive analysis of rural resilience. Moreover, the deliberate application of social–ecological inventory was the first step in the research team reengaging with the community following the event. The inventory process provided an opportunity for research partners to share their stories and experiences and develop a shared understanding of changes that had taken place in the community. Results provide empirical insight into reactions to disruptive change associated with disasters. The inventory also informed the design of targeted research collaborations, established a platform for longer-term community engagement, and provides a baseline for assessing longitudinal changes in key resilience-related characteristics and community capacities. Findings suggest the utility of social–ecological inventory goes beyond natural resource management, and that it may be appropriate in a range of contexts where institutional, social, and economic restructuring have developed out of necessity in response to felt or anticipated external stressors.