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Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Located on the edge of two tectonic plates, New Zealand has numerous fault lines and seismic risk across the whole country. The way this risk is communicated affects whether people prepare effectively or at all. Research has shown that perceptions of risk are affected by slight changes in wording, and that probabilities commonly reported by experts and media are often interpreted subjectively based on context. In the context of volcanoes, research has found that given a certain probability of a volcano in a specific time window, people perceive risk as higher in later time intervals within that window. The present study examines this pattern with regard to earthquakes and aftershocks in the New Zealand context. Participants in both Wellington (N = 102) and Christchurch (N = 98) were presented an expert statement of earthquake risk within a given time window in Wellington and aftershock risk in Christchurch, and asked to rate their perception of risk in specific intervals across the time window. For a Wellington earthquake, participants perceived risk as incrementally higher toward the end of the 50 year time window whereas for a Christchurch aftershock, risk perception increased slightly for the first three intervals of the 12 month time window. Likelihood of preparing was constant over the time windows, with Wellington citizens rating themselves more likely than Christchurch citizens to prepare for either an earthquake or aftershock, irrespective of current level of preparedness. These findings suggest that people view earthquakes as more likely later toward the end of a given time window and that they view aftershocks very differently to scientific predictions.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

Detail of the TimeZone window on Colombo Street. On it are posters from pre-quake, and damage is evident by the faded pink batts seen through the window. Damage to buildings across the street are also reflected in the window.

Images, eqnz.chch.2010

A crane topples over on Victoria Street while taking glass up to some windows. No one was hurt and the glass never broke. Victoria Street was closed from 7:30am to later in the evening. This all happen on the Knox Plaza building site. Christchurch October 13, 2014 New Zealand.

Images, eqnz.chch.2010

Detail of the Christchurch Anglicain Cathedral viewed from a path between the new Cashel Mall shopping area and Cathedral Square which was opened two weekends ago. This is the first time this section of the city has been open to the public since the 22 February 2011 earthquake. It will be closed off again after 11 December 2011 for the demolitio...

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to the Odeon Theatre can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to the Odeon Theatre can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

For the first time in November 2011, Christchurch residents finally had the opportunity to see the earthquake-damaged city centre on the Red Zone bus tours organised by CERA. Damage to buildings on Cashel Street can be seen out the window.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

The damaged TimeZone games arcade on Colombo Street. The roof has collapsed, batts from the ceiling are piled in the window, and the door is boarded up. Taken on a day when a walkway was opened up between Re:Start Mall and Cathedral Square to allow temporary public access.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

The damaged TimeZone games arcade on Colombo Street. The roof has collapsed, batts from the ceiling are piled in the window, and the door is boarded up. Taken on a day when a walkway was opened up between Re:Start Mall and Cathedral Square to allow temporary public access.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A photograph of a sign in the window of a café in Merivale. The sign reads, "To all my very loyal customers, thank you so much for your custom over the past three years. As much as I have enjoyed the previous three years it is time for me to move on especially to spend more time with my two young daughters. On a brighter note, Paul from Chicotis (198 Papanui Road) - I'm sure most of you will already know him - will be taking over very soon and will continue to trade as Chicotis. I wish Paul all the very best and thank you again for your support of Makibo Cafe.