Prognostic modelling provides an efficient means to analyse the coastal environment and provide effective knowledge for long term urban planning. This paper outlines how the use of SWAN and Xbeach numerical models within the ESRI ArcGIS interface can simulate geomorphological evolution through hydrodynamic forcing for the Greater Christchurch coastal environment. This research followed the data integration techniques of Silva and Taborda (2012) and utilises their beach morphological modelling tool (BeachMM tool). The statutory requirements outlined in the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement 2010 were examined to determine whether these requirements are currently being complied with when applying the recent sea level rise predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), and it would appear that it does not meet those requirements. This is because coastal hazard risk has not been thoroughly quantified by the installation of the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) residential red zone. However, the Christchurch City Council’s (CCC) flood management area does provide an extent to which managed coastal retreat is a real option. This research assessed the effectiveness of the prognostic models, forecasted a coastline for 100 years from now, and simulated the physical effects of extreme events such as storm surge given these future predictions. The results of this research suggest that progradation will continue to occur along the Christchurch foreshore due to the net sediment flux retaining an onshore direction and the current hydrodynamic activity not being strong enough to move sediment offshore. However, inundation during periods of storm surge poses a risk to human habitation on low lying areas around the Avon-Heathcote Estuary and the Brooklands lagoon similar to the CCC’s flood management area. There are complex interactions at the Waimakariri River mouth with very high rates of accretion and erosion within a small spatial scale due to the river discharge. There is domination of the marine environment over the river system determined by the lack of generation of a distinct river delta, and river channel has not formed within the intertidal zone clearly. The Avon-Heathcote ebb tidal delta aggrades on the innner fan and erodes on the outer fan due to wave domination. The BeachMM tool facilitates the role of spatial and temporal analysis effectively and the efficiency of that performance is determined by the computational operating system.
The majority of Christchurch’s stormwater has historically been discharged untreated directly into urban surface waterways. These receiving waterways have become adversely affected by the contaminants carried in the stormwater, particularly sediment and heavy metals. An event-based contaminant load model was developed to identify the distribution and magnitude of contaminant loads entering the waterway, as well as to assess the reduction in TSS and heavy metal loads that can be achieved by various stormwater management options. The GIS-Excel based model estimates contaminant loads from an individual storm event based on different contributing impervious surfaces and key rainfall characteristics (rainfall intensity, duration, pH and antecedent dry days). It then calculates contaminant reduction loads that could be achieved through source reduction (e.g. green roofs, repainting) as well as from treatment (e.g. raingardens, wet ponds) applied to different surfaces within the catchment. This model differs from other annual load models as it is event-based and accounts for storm characteristics in its calculation of contaminant loads. Christchurch is a valuable case setting due the unique opportunity for retrofitting improved stormwater management in the post-earthquake rebuild. It is anticipated that this modelling approach could later be adapted for use in other urban settings outside of Christchurch.
The Avon-Heathcote Estuary, located in Christchurch, New Zealand, experienced coseismic deformation as a result of the February 22nd 2011 Christchurch Earthquake. The deformation is reflected as subsidence in the northern area and uplift in the southern area of the Estuary, in addition to sand volcanoes which forced up sediment throughout the floor of the Estuary altering estuary bed height and tidal flow. The first part of the research involved quantifying the change in the modern benthic foraminifera distribution as a result of the coseismic deformation caused by the February 22nd 2011 earthquake. By analysing the taxa present immediately post deformation and then the taxa present 2 years post deformation a comparison of the benthic foraminifera distribution can be made of the pre and post deformation. Both the northern and the southern areas of the Estuary were sampled to establish whether foraminifera faunas migrated landward or seaward as a result of subsidence and uplift experienced in different areas. There was no statistical change in overall species distribution in the two year time period since the coseismic deformation occurred, however, there were some noticeable changes in foraminifera distribution at BSNS-Z3 showing a landward migration of taxa. The changes that were predicted to occur as a result of the deformation of the Estuary are taking longer than expected to show up in the foraminiferal record and a longer time period is needed to establish these changes. The second stage involved establishing the modern distribution of foraminifera at Settlers Reserve in the southern area of the Avon-Heathcote Estuary by detailed sampling along a 160 m transect. Foraminifera are sensitive to environmental parameters, tidal height, grainsize, pH and salinity were recorded to evaluate the effect these parameters have on distribution. Bray-Curtis two-way cluster analysis was primarily used to assess the distribution pattern of foraminifera. The modern foraminifera distribution is comparable to that of the modern day New Zealand brackish-water benthic foraminifera distribution and includes species not yet found in other studies of the Avon-Heathcote Estuary. Differences in sampling techniques and the restricted intertidal marshland area where the transect samples were collected account for some of the differences seen between this model and past foraminifera studies. xiii The final stage involved sampling a 2.20 m core collected from Settlers Reserve and using the modern foraminiferal distribution to establish a foraminiferal history of Settlers Reserve. As foraminifera are sensitive to tidal height they may record past coseismic deformation events and the core was used to ascertain whether record of past coseismic deformation is preserved in Settlers Reserve sediments. Sampling the core for foraminifera, grainsize, trace metals and carbon material helped to build a story of estuary development. Using the modern foraminiferal distribution and the tidal height information collected, a down core model of past tidal heights was established to determine past rates of change. Foraminifera are not well preserved throughout the core, however, a sudden relative rise in sea level is recorded between 0.25 m and 0.85 m. Using trace metal and isotope analysis to develop an age profile, this sea level rise is interpreted to record coseismic subsidence associated with a palaeoseismic event in the early 1900’s. Overall, although the Avon-Heathcote Estuary experienced clear coseismic deformation as a result of the 22nd of February 2011 earthquake, modern changes in foraminiferal distribution cannot yet be tracked, however, past seismic deformation is identified in a core. The modern transect describes the foraminifera distribution which identifies species that have not been identified in the Avon-Heathcote Estuary before. This thesis enhances the current knowledge of the Avon-Heathcote Estuary and is a baseline for future studies.
Soil Liquefaction during Recent Large-Scale Earthquakes contains selected papers presented at the New Zealand – Japan Workshop on Soil Liquefaction during Recent Large-Scale Earthquakes (Auckland, New Zealand, 2-3 December 2013). The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand and the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake in Japan have caused significant damage to many residential houses due to varying degrees of soil liquefaction over a very wide extent of urban areas unseen in past destructive earthquakes. While soil liquefaction occurred in naturally-sedimented soil formations in Christchurch, most of the areas which liquefied in Tokyo Bay area were reclaimed soil and artificial fill deposits, thus providing researchers with a wide range of soil deposits to characterize soil and site response to large-scale earthquake shaking. Although these earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan caused extensive damage to life and property, they also serve as an opportunity to understand better the response of soil and building foundations to such large-scale earthquake shaking. With the wealth of information obtained in the aftermath of both earthquakes, information-sharing and knowledge-exchange are vital in arriving at liquefaction-proof urban areas in both countries. Data regarding the observed damage to residential houses as well as the lessons learnt are essential for the rebuilding efforts in the coming years and in mitigating buildings located in regions with high liquefaction potential. As part of the MBIE-JSPS collaborative research programme, the Geomechanics Group of the University of Auckland and the Geotechnical Engineering Laboratory of the University of Tokyo co-hosted the workshop to bring together researchers to review the findings and observations from recent large-scale earthquakes related to soil liquefaction and discuss possible measures to mitigate future damage. http://librarysearch.auckland.ac.nz/UOA2_A:Combined_Local:uoa_alma21151785130002091
