This paper provides a summary of initial research results investigating systematic site effects from the prediction residuals of empirical- and physics-based ground-motion models (GMMs) for small magnitude (i.e., 3.5 ≤ MW ≤ 5) active shallow crustal earthquakes in New Zealand (NZ). Advancing ground-motion predictability through physics-based GMMs is an iterative process and requires addressing fundamental questions like: Is there salient physics which has been overlooked? Which geographic regions have predictions that significantly deviate from observations and why? Which sites exhibit systematic prediction residuals and how can the attributes influencing them be identified? This preliminary study examines these questions by classifying 171 sites from the Canterbury and Wellington regions into four geomorphic categories: basin, basin-edge, hill, and valley, following the categorisation by Nweke et al. (2022). Trends in the site-to-site residuals for each geomorphic category indicate apparent differences between the four categories, with residuals for valley sites illustrating a clear dependence with the inferred fundamental site period. Computed residuals from both empirical- and physics-based GMMs also provided insight into the role of site-specific attributes vs. the different prediction methods, assisting to understand the salient causes of these residuals.
We examined the stratigraphy of alluvial fans formed at the steep range front of the Southern Alps at Te Taho, on the north bank of the Whataroa River in central West Coast, South Island, New Zealand. The range front coincides with the Alpine Fault, an Australian-Pacific plate boundary fault, which produces regular earthquakes. Our study of range front fans revealed aggradation at 100- to 300-year intervals. Radiocarbon ages and soil residence times (SRTs) estimated by a quantitative profile development index allowed us to elucidate the characteristics of four episodes of aggradation since 1000 CE. We postulate a repeating mode of fan behaviour (fan response cycle [FRC]) linked to earthquake cycles via earthquake-triggered landslides. FRCs are characterised by short response time (aggradation followed by incision) and a long phase when channels are entrenched and fan surfaces are stable (persistence time). Currently, the Te Taho and Whataroa River fans are in the latter phase. The four episodes of fan building we determined from an OxCal sequence model correlate to Alpine Fault earthquakes (or other subsidiary events) and support prior landscape evolution studies indicating ≥M7.5 earthquakes as the main driver of episodic sedimentation. Our findings are consistent with other historic non-earthquake events on the West Coast but indicate faster responses than other earthquake sites in New Zealand and elsewhere where rainfall and stream gradients (the basis for stream power) are lower. Judging from the thickness of fan deposits and the short response times, we conclude that pastoral farming (current land-use) on the fans and probably across much of the Whataroa River fan would be impossible for several decades after a major earthquake. The sustainability of regional tourism and agriculture is at risk, more so because of the vulnerability of the single through road in the region (State Highway 6).
