A video of an address by Dr. Kelvin Berryman, Director of Natural Hazards and Principal Scientist at GNS, at the 2014 Seismics and the City forum. This talk was part of the Building Momentum section, and explored the question, 'What is acceptable risk and tolerable impacts of future hazard events like earthquakes and flooding?'
This paper concerns the explicit consideration of near-fault directivity in conventional ground motion prediction models, and its implication for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in New Zealand. The proposed approach utilises recently developed models by Shahi & Baker (2011), which account for both the 'narrowband' nature of the directivity pulse on spectral ordinates, and the probability of pulse occurrence at the site of interest. Furthermore, in order to correctly consider directivity, distributed seismicity sources are considered as finite-faults, as opposed to their (incorrect) conventional treatment as point-sources. The significance of directivity on hazard analysis results is illustrated for various vibration periods at generic sites located in Christchurch and Otira, two locations whose seismic hazard is comprised of notably different seismic sources. When compared to the PSHA results considering directivity and distributed seismicity as finite faults, it is shown that the NZS1170.5:2004 directivity factor is notably unconservative for all vibration periods in Otira (i.e. high seismic hazard region); and unconservative for Christchurch at short-to-moderate vibration periods ( < 3s); but conservative at long periods ( > 4s).
The Canterbury earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 have shone the spotlight on a number of tax issues. These issues, and in particular lessons learned from them, will be relevant for revenue authorities, policymakers and taxpayers alike in the broader context of natural disasters. Issues considered by this paper include the tax treatment of insurance monies. For example, building owners will receive pay-outs for destroyed assets and buildings which have been depreciated. Where the insurance payment is more than the adjusted tax value, there will be a taxable "gain on sale" (or depreciation recovery income). If the building owner uses those insurance proceeds to purchase a replacement asset, legislative amendments specifically enacted following the earthquakes provide that rollover relief of the depreciation recovery income is available. The tax treatment of expenditure to seismically strengthen a building is another significant issue faced by building owners. Case law has determined that this expenditure will usually be capital expenditure. In the past such costs could be capitalised to the building and depreciated accordingly. However, since the 2011-2012 income year owners have been prohibited from claiming depreciation on buildings and therefore currently no deduction is available for such strengthening expenditure (whether immediate or deferred). This has significant potential implications for landlords throughout New Zealand facing significant seismic retrofit costs. Incentives, or some form of financial support, whether delivered through the tax system or some other mechanism may be required. International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) require insurance proceeds, including reimbursement for expenditure of a capital nature, be reported as income while expenditure itself is not recorded as a current period expense. This has the effect of overstating current income and creating a larger variation between reported income for accounting and taxation purposes. Businesses have obligations to maintain certain business records for tax purposes. Reconstructing records destroyed by a natural disaster depends on how the information was originally stored. The earthquakes have demonstrated the benefits of ‘off-site’ (outside Canterbury) storage, in particular electronic storage. This paper considers these issues and the Inland Revenue Department (Inland Revenue) Standard Practice Statement which deals with inter alia retention of business records in electronic format and offshore record storage. Employer provided accommodation is treated as income to the benefitting employee. A recent amendment to the Income Tax Act 2007 retrospectively provides that certain employer provided accommodation is exempt from tax. The time aspect of these rules is extended where the employee is involved in the Canterbury rebuild and comes from outside the region.
Since the early 1980s seismic hazard assessment in New Zealand has been based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The most recent version of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model, a PSHA model, was published by Stirling et al, in 2012. This model follows standard PSHA principals and combines a nation-wide model of active faults with a gridded point-source model based on the earthquake catalogue since 1840. These models are coupled with the ground-motion prediction equation of McVerry et al (2006). Additionally, we have developed a time-dependent clustering-based PSHA model for the Canterbury region (Gerstenberger et al, 2014) in response to the Canterbury earthquake sequence. We are now in the process of revising that national model. In this process we are investigating several of the fundamental assumptions in traditional PSHA and in how we modelled hazard in the past. For this project, we have three main focuses: 1) how do we design an optimal combination of multiple sources of information to produce the best forecast of earthquake rates in the next 50 years: can we improve upon a simple hybrid of fault sources and background sources, and can we better handle the uncertainties in the data and models (e.g., fault segmentation, frequency-magnitude distributions, time-dependence & clustering, low strain-rate areas, and subduction zone modelling)? 2) developing revised and new ground-motion predictions models including better capturing of epistemic uncertainty – a key focus in this work is developing a new strong ground motion catalogue for model development; and 3) how can we best quantify if changes we have made in our modelling are truly improvements? Throughout this process we are working toward incorporating numerical modelling results from physics based synthetic seismicity and ground-motion models.
In this paper, we consider how religious leaders and Civil Defence authorities might collaborate to establish a two-way information conduit during the aftermath of a disaster. Using surveys and in-person interviews, clergy in different Christian denominations were asked about their roles in the earthquake, the needs of their congregations and the possibilities and obstacles to deeper collaboration with Civil Defence authorities.
This paper develops representative ground motion ensembles for several major earthquake scenarios in New Zealand. Cases considered include representative ground motions for the occurrence of Alpine, Hope, and Porters Pass earthquakes in Christchurch, and the occurrence of Wellington, Wairarapa, and Ohariu, fault ruptures in Wellington. Challenges in the development of ground motion ensembles for subduction zone earthquakes are also highlighted. The ground motions are selected based on the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach, ensuring that the ground motion ensembles represent both the mean, and distribution of ground motion intensity which such scenarios could impose. These scenario-based ground motion sets can be used to complement ground motions which are often selected in conjunction with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, in order to understand the performance of structures for the question “what if this fault ruptures?”
This presentation discusses recent empirical ground motion modelling efforts in New Zealand. Firstly, the active shallow crustal and subduction interface and slab ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) which are employed in the 2010 update of the national seismic hazard model (NSHM) are discussed. Other NZ-specific GMPEs developed, but not incorporated in the 2010 update are then discussed, in particular, the active shallow crustal model of Bradley (2010). A brief comparison of the NZ-specific GMPEs with the near-source ground motions recorded in the Canterbury earthquakes is then presented, given that these recordings collectively provide a significant increase in observed strong motions in the NZ catalogue. The ground motion prediction expert elicitation process that was undertaken following the Canterbury earthquakes for active shallow crustal earthquakes is then discussed. Finally, ongoing GMPE-related activities are discussed including: ground motion and metadata database refinement, improved site characterization of strong motion station, and predictions for subduction zone earthquakes.
Using case studies from the 2010-2011 Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence, this study assesses the accuracies of paleoliquefaction back-analysis methods and explores the challenges, techniques, and uncertainties associated with their application. While liquefaction-based back-analyses have been widely used to estimate the magnitudes of paleoearthquakes, their uncertain efficacies continue to significantly affect the computed seismic hazard in regions where they are relied upon. Accordingly, their performance is evaluated herein using liquefaction data from modern earthquakes with known magnitudes. It is shown that when the earthquake source location and mechanism are known, back-analysis methods are capable of accurately deriving seismic parameters from liquefaction evidence. However, because the source location and mechanism are often unknown in paleoseismic studies, and because accurate interpretation is shown to be more difficult in such cases, new analysis techniques are proposed herein. An objective parameter is proposed to geospatially assess the likelihood of any provisional source location, enabling an analyst to more accurately estimate the magnitude of a liquefaction-inducing paleoearthquake. This study demonstrates the application of back-analysis methods, provides insight into their potential accuracies, and provides a framework for performing paleoliquefaction analyses worldwide.
Generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) method is extended to ground motion selection for scenario ruptures. Using different rupture scenarios and site conditions, various aspects of the GCIM methodology are scrutinized, including: (i) implementation of different weight vectors and the composition of the IM vector; (ii) quantifying the importance of replicate selections for different number of desired ground motions; and (iii) the effect of considering bounds on the implicit causal parameters of the prospective ground motions. Using the extended methodology, representative ground motion ensembles for several major earthquake scenarios in New Zealand are developed. Cases considered include representative ground motions for the occurrence of Alpine, Hope, and Porters Pass earthquakes in Christchurch city, and the occurrence of Wellington, Wairarapa, and Ohariu fault ruptures in Wellington city. Challenges in the development of ground motion ensembles for subduction zone earthquakes are also highlighted. The selected scenario-based ground motion sets can be used to complement ground motions which are often selected in conjunction with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, in order to understand the performance of structures for the question “what if this fault ruptures?”
Generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) method is extended to ground motion selection for scenario ruptures. Using different rupture scenarios and site conditions, various aspects of the GCIM methodology are scrutinized, including: (i) implementation of different weight vectors and the composition of the IM vector; (ii) quantifying the importance of replicate selections for different number of desired ground motions; and (iii) the effect of considering bounds on the implicit causal parameters of the prospective ground motions. Using the extended methodology, representative ground motion ensembles for several major earthquake scenarios in New Zealand are developed. Cases considered include representative ground motions for the occurrence of Alpine, Hope, and Porters Pass earthquakes in Christchurch city, and the occurrence of Wellington, Wairarapa, and Ohariu fault ruptures in Wellington city. Challenges in the development of ground motion ensembles for subduction zone earthquakes are also highlighted. The selected scenario-based ground motion sets can be used to complement ground motions which are often selected in conjunction with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, in order to understand the performance of structures for the question “what if this fault ruptures?”
Natural disasters are increasingly disruptive events that affect livelihoods, organisations, and economies worldwide. Research has identified the impacts and responses of organisations to different types of natural disasters, and have outlined factors, such as industry sector, that are important to organisational vulnerability and resilience. One of the most costly types of natural disasters in recent years has been earthquakes, and yet to date, the majority of studies have focussed on the effects of earthquakes in urban areas, while rural organisational impact studies have primarily focused on the effects of meteorological and climatic driven hazards. As a result, the likely impacts of an earthquake on rural organisations in a developed context is unconstrained in the literature. In countries like New Zealand, which have major earthquakes and agricultural sectors that are significant contributors to the economy, it is important to know what impacts an earthquake event would have on the rural industries, and how these impacts compare to that of a more commonly analysed, high-frequency event. In September of 2010, rural organisations in Canterbury experienced the 4 September 2010 Mw 7.1 `Darfield' earthquake and the associated aftershocks, which came to be known as the Canterbury earth- quake sequence. The earthquake sequence caused intense ground shaking, creating widespread critical service outages, structural and non-structural damage to built infrastructure, as well as ground surface damage from ooding, liquefaction and surface rupture. Concurrently on September 18 2010, rural organisations in Southland experienced an unseasonably late snowstorm and cold weather snap that brought prolonged sub-zero temperatures, high winds and freezing rain, damaging structures in the City of Invercargill and causing widespread livestock losses and production decreases across the region. This thesis documents the effects of the Canterbury earthquake sequence and Southland snowstorm on farming and rural non-farming organisations, utilizing comparable methodologies to analyse rural organisational impacts, responses and recovery strategies to natural disasters. From the results, a short- term impact assessment methodology is developed for multiple disasters. Additionally, a regional asset repair cost estimation model is proposed for farming organisations following a major earthquake event, and the use of social capital in rural organisational recovery strategies following natural disasters is analysed.
Structural engineering is facing an extraordinarily challenging era. These challenges are driven by the increasing expectations of modern society to provide low-cost, architecturally appealing structures which can withstand large earthquakes. However, being able to avoid collapse in a large earthquake is no longer enough. A building must now be able to withstand a major seismic event with negligible damage so that it is immediately occupiable following such an event. As recent earthquakes have shown, the economic consequences of not achieving this level of performance are not acceptable. Technological solutions for low-damage structural systems are emerging. However, the goal of developing a low-damage building requires improving the performance of both the structural skeleton and the non-structural components. These non-structural components include items such as the claddings, partitions, ceilings and contents. Previous research has shown that damage to such items contributes a disproportionate amount to the overall economic losses in an earthquake. One such non-structural element that has a history of poor performance is the external cladding system, and this forms the focus of this research. Cladding systems are invariably complicated and provide a number of architectural functions. Therefore, it is important than when seeking to improve their seismic performance that these functions are not neglected. The seismic vulnerability of cladding systems are determined in this research through a desktop background study, literature review, and postearthquake reconnaissance survey of their performance in the 2010 – 2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. This study identified that precast concrete claddings present a significant life-safety risk to pedestrians, and that the effect they have upon the primary structure is not well understood. The main objective of this research is consequently to better understand the performance of precast concrete cladding systems in earthquakes. This is achieved through an experimental campaign and numerical modelling of a range of precast concrete cladding systems. The experimental campaign consists of uni-directional, quasi static cyclic earthquake simulation on a test frame which represents a single-storey, single-bay portion of a reinforced concrete building. The test frame is clad with various precast concrete cladding panel configurations. A major focus is placed upon the influence the connection between the cladding panel and structural frame has upon seismic performance. A combination of experimental component testing, finite element modelling and analytical derivation is used to develop cladding models of the cladding systems investigated. The cyclic responses of the models are compared with the experimental data to evaluate their accuracy and validity. The comparison shows that the cladding models developed provide an excellent representation of real-world cladding behaviour. The cladding models are subsequently applied to a ten-storey case-study building. The expected seismic performance is examined with and without the cladding taken into consideration. The numerical analyses of the case-study building include modal analyses, nonlinear adaptive pushover analyses, and non-linear dynamic seismic response (time history) analyses to different levels of seismic hazard. The clad frame models are compared to the bare frame model to investigate the effect the cladding has upon the structural behaviour. Both the structural performance and cladding performance are also assessed using qualitative damage states. The results show a poor performance of precast concrete cladding systems is expected when traditional connection typologies are used. This result confirms the misalignment of structural and cladding damage observed in recent earthquake events. Consequently, this research explores the potential of an innovative cladding connection. The outcomes from this research shows that the innovative cladding connection proposed here is able to achieve low-damage performance whilst also being cost comparable to a traditional cladding connection. It is also theoretically possible that the connection can provide a positive value to the seismic performance of the structure by adding addition strength, stiffness and damping. Finally, the losses associated with both the traditional and innovative cladding systems are compared in terms of tangible outcomes, namely: repair costs, repair time and casualties. The results confirm that the use of innovative cladding technology can substantially reduce the overall losses that result from cladding damage.
Though generally considered “natural” disasters, cyclones and earthquakes are increasingly being associated with human activities, incubated through urban settlement patterns and the long-term redistribution of natural resources. As society is becoming more urbanized, the risk of human exposure to disasters is also rising. Architecture often reflects the state of society’s health: architectural damage is the first visible sign of emergency, and reconstruction is the final response in the process of recovery. An empirical assessment of architectural projects in post-disaster situations can lead to a deeper understanding of urban societies as they try to rebuild. This thesis offers an alternative perspective on urban disasters by looking at the actions and attitudes of disaster professionals through the lens of architecture, situated in recent events: the 2010 Christchurch earthquake, the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the 2005 Hurricane Katrina. An empirical, multi-hazard, cross-sectional case study methodology was used, employing grounded theory method to build theory, and a critical constructivist strategy to inform the analysis. By taking an interdisciplinary approach to understanding disasters, this thesis positions architecture as a conduit between two divergent approaches to disaster research: the hazards approach, which studies the disaster cycles from a scientific perspective; and the sociological approach, which studies the socially constructed vulnerabilities that result from disasters, and the elements of social change that accompany such events. Few studies to date have attempted to integrate the multi-disciplinary perspectives that can advance our understanding of societal problems in urban disasters. To bridge this gap, this thesis develops what will be referred to as the “Rittelian framework”—based on the work of UC Berkeley’s architecture professor Horst Rittel (1930-1990). The Rittelian framework uses the language of design to transcend the multiple fields of human endeavor to address the “design problems” in disaster research. The processes by which societal problems are addressed following an urban disaster involve input by professionals from multiple fields—including economics, sociology, medicine, and engineering—but the contribution from architecture has been minimal to date. The main impetus for my doctoral thesis has been the assertion that most of the decisions related to reconstruction are made in the early emergency recovery stages where architects are not involved, but architects’ early contribution is vital to the long-term reconstruction of cities. This precipitated in the critical question: “How does the Rittelian framework contribute to the critical design decisions in modern urban disasters?” Comparative research was undertaken in three case studies of recent disasters in New Orleans (2005), Haiti (2010) and Christchurch (2010), by interviewing 51 individuals who were selected on the basis of employing the Rittelian framework in their humanitarian practice. Contextualizing natural disaster research within the robust methodological framework of architecture and the analytical processes of sociology is the basis for evaluating the research proposition that architectural problem solving is of value in addressing the ‘Wicked Problems’ of disasters. This thesis has found that (1) the nuances of the way disaster agents interpret the notion of “building back better” can influence the extent to which architectural professionals contribute in urban disaster recovery, (2) architectural design can be used to facilitate but also impede critical design decisions, and (3) framing disaster research in terms of design decisions can lead to innovation where least expected. This empirical research demonstrates how the Rittelian framework can inform a wider discussion about post-disaster human settlements, and improve our resilience through disaster research.