In this paper, we perform hybrid broadband (0-10 Hz) ground motion simulations for the ten most significant events (Mw 4.7-7.1) in the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. Taking advantage of having repeated recordings at same stations, we validate our simulations using both recordings and an empirically-developed ground motion prediction equation (GMPE). The simulation clearly captures the sedimentary basin amplification and the rupture directivity effects. Quantitative comparisons of the simulations with both recordings and the GMPE, as well as analyses of the total residuals (indicating model bias) show that simulations perform better than the empirical GMPE, especially for long period. To scrutinize the ground motion variability, we partitioned the total residuals into different components. The total residual appears to be unbiased, and the use of a 3D velocity structure reduces the long period systematic bias particularly for stations located close to the Banks Peninsula volcanic area.
Tourism is New Zealand’s fourth largest industry, providing jobs for thousands of New
Zealanders and significant foreign capital for the nation’s economy. Of concern to ministry and industry
decision makers is the “spatial yield” of these tourists which takes into account the spatial and temporal
contributions of their movements in terms of economic, cultural and environmental impacts. We have
developed an agent-based model of tourism movements to simulate these impacts and to allow for the
evaluation of different scenarios (such as increases in petrol prices or variations in currency exchange rates)
on the behaviours of those tourists. In order to develop realistic and grounded heuristics for the model,
interview protocols were developed in order to identify the key drivers in tourists’ decision making process.
This dissertation addresses a diverse range of topics in the physics-based broadband ground motion simulation, with a focus on New Zealand applications. In particular the following topics are addressed: the methodology and computational implementation of a New Zealand Velocity Model for broadband ground motion simulation; generalised parametric functions and spatial correlations for seismic velocities in the Canterbury, New Zealand region from surface-wave-based site characterisation; and ground motion simulations of Hope Fault earthquakes. The paragraphs below outline each contribution in more detail. A necessary component in physics-based ground motion simulation is a 3D model which details the seismic velocities in the region of interest. Here a velocity model construction methodology, its computational implementation, and application in the construction of a New Zealand velocity model for use in physics-based broadband ground motion simulation are presented. The methodology utilises multiple datasets spanning different length scales, which is enabled via the use of modular sub-regions, geologic surfaces, and parametric representations of crustal velocity. A number of efficiency-related workflows to decrease the overall computational construction time are employed, while maintaining the flexibility and extensibility to incorporate additional datasets and re- fined velocity parameterizations as they become available. The model comprises explicit representations of the Canterbury, Wellington, Nelson-Tasman, Kaikoura, Marlborough, Waiau, Hanmer and Cheviot sedimentary basins embedded within a regional travel-time tomography-based velocity model for the shallow crust and provides the means to conduct ground motion simulations throughout New Zealand for the first time. Recently developed deep shear-wave velocity profiles in Canterbury enabled models that better characterise the velocity structure within geologic layers of the Canterbury sedimentary basin to be developed. Here the development of depth- and Vs30-dependent para-metric velocity and spatial correlation models to characterise shear-wave velocities within the geologic layers of the Canterbury sedimentary basin are presented. The models utilise data from 22 shear-wave velocity profiles of up to 2.5km depth (derived from surface wave analysis) juxtaposed with models which detail the three-dimensional structure of the geologic formations in the Canterbury sedimentary basin. Parametric velocity equations are presented for Fine Grained Sediments, Gravels, and Tertiary layer groupings. Spatial correlations were developed and applied to generate three-dimensional stochastic velocity perturbations. Collectively, these models enable seismic velocities to be realistically represented for applications such as 3D ground motion and site response simulations. Lastly the New Zealand velocity model is applied to simulate ground motions for a Mw7.51 rupture of the Hope Fault using a physics-based simulation methodology and a 3D crustal velocity model of New Zealand. The simulation methodology was validated for use in the region through comparison with observations for a suite of historic small magnitude earthquakes located proximal to the Hope Fault. Simulations are compared with conventionally utilised empirical ground motion models, with simulated peak ground velocities being notably higher in regions with modelled sedimentary basins. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken where the source characteristics of magnitude, stress parameter, hypocentre location and kinematic slip distribution were varied and an analysis of their effect on ground motion intensities is presented. It was found that the magnitude and stress parameter strongly influenced long and short period ground motion amplitudes, respectively. Ground motion intensities for the Hope Fault scenario are compared with the 2016 Kaikoura Mw7.8 earthquake, it was found that the Kaikoura earthquake produced stronger motions along the eastern South Island, while the Hope Fault scenario resulted in stronger motions immediately West of the near-fault region. The simulated ground motions for this scenario complement prior empirically-based estimates and are informative for mitigation and emergency planning purposes.
This dissertation addresses a diverse range of topics in the area of physics-based ground motion simulation with particular focus on the Canterbury, New Zealand region. The objectives achieved provide the means to perform hybrid broadband ground motion simulation and subsequently validates the simulation methodology employed. In particu- lar, the following topics are addressed: the development of a 3D seismic velocity model of the Canterbury region for broadband ground motion simulation; the development of a 3D geologic model of the interbedded Quaternary formations to provide insight on observed ground motions; and the investigation of systematic effects through ground motion sim- ulation of small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes. The paragraphs below outline each contribution in more detail. As a means to perform hybrid broadband ground motion simulation, a 3D model of the geologic structure and associated seismic velocities in the Canterbury region is devel- oped utilising data from depth-converted seismic reflection lines, petroleum and water well logs, cone penetration tests, and implicitly guided by existing contour maps and geologic cross sections in data sparse subregions. The model explicitly characterises five significant and regionally recognisable geologic surfaces that mark the boundaries between geologic units with distinct lithology and age, including the Banks Peninsula volcanics, which are noted to strongly influence seismic wave propagation. The Basement surface represents the base of the Canterbury sedimentary basin, where a large impedance contrast exists re- sulting in basin-generated waves. Seismic velocities for the lithological units between the geologic surfaces are derived from well logs, seismic reflection surveys, root mean square stacking velocities, empirical correlations, and benchmarked against a regional crustal model, thus providing the necessary information for a Canterbury velocity model for use in broadband seismic wave propagation. A 3D high-resolution model of the Quaternary geologic stratigraphic sequence in the Canterbury region is also developed utilising datasets of 527 high-quality water well logs, and 377 near-surface cone penetration test records. The model, developed using geostatistical Kriging, represents the complex interbedded regional Quaternary geology by characterising the boundaries between significant interbedded geologic formations as 3D surfaces including explicit modelling of the formation unconformities resulting from the Banks Peninsula volcanics. The stratigraphic layering present can result in complex wave propagation. The most prevalent trend observed in the surfaces was the downward dip from inland to the eastern coastline as a result of the dominant fluvial depositional environment of the terrestrial gravel formations. The developed model provides a benefi- cial contribution towards developing a comprehensive understanding of recorded ground motions in the region and also providing the necessary information for future site char- acterisation and site response analyses. To highlight the practicality of the model, an example illustrating the role of the model in constraining surface wave analysis-based shear wave velocity profiling is illustrated along with the calculation of transfer functions to quantify the effect of the interbedded geology on wave propagation. Lastly, an investigation of systematic biases in the (Graves and Pitarka, 2010, 2015) ground motion simulation methodology and the specific inputs used for the Canterbury region is presented considering 144 small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes. In the simulation of these earthquakes, the 3D Canterbury Velocity Model, developed as a part of this dissertation, is used for the low-frequency simulation, and a regional 1D velocity model for the high-frequency simulation. Representative results for individual earthquake sources are first presented to highlight the characteristics of the small-to-moderate mag- nitude earthquake simulations through waveforms, intensity measure scaling with source- to-site distance, and spectral bias of the individual events. Subsequently, a residual de- composition is performed to examine the between- and within-event residuals between observed data, and simulated and empirical predictions. By decomposing the residuals into between- and within-event residuals, the biases in source, path and site effects, and their causes, can be inferred. The residuals are comprehensively examined considering their aggregated characteristics, dependence on predictor variables, spatial distribution, and site-specific effects. The results of the simulation are also benchmarked against empir- ical ground motion models, where their similarities manifest from common components in their prediction. Ultimately, suggestions to improve the predictive capability of the simulations are presented as a result of the analysis.
This study examines the performance of nonlinear total-stress wave-propagation site response analysis for modelling site effects in physics-based ground motion simulations of the 2010-2011 Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence. This approach allows for explicit modeling of 3-dimensional ground motion phenomena at the regional scale, as well as detailed site effects and soil nonlinearity at the local scale. The approach is compared to a more commonly used empirical VS30 (30 m time-averaged shear wave velocity)-based method for computing site amplification as proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2010, 2015).
his poster presents the ongoing development of a 3D Canterbury seismic velocity model which will be used in physics-based hybrid broadband ground motion simulation of the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Velocity models must sufficiently represent critical aspects of the crustal structure over multiple length scales which will influence the results of the simulations. As a result, numerous sources of data are utilized in order to provide adequate resolution where necessary. Figure 2: (a) Seismic reflection line showing P-wave velocities and significant geologic horizons (Barnes et al. 2011), and (b) Shear wave profiles at 10 locations (Stokoe et al. 2013). Figure 4: Cross sections of the current version of the Canterbury velocity model to depths of 10km as shown in Figure 1: (a) at a constant latitude value of -43.6˚, and (b) at a constant longitude value of 172.64˚. 3. Ground Surface and Geologic Horizon Models Figure 3: (a) Ground surface model derived from numerous available digital elevation models, and (b) Base of the Quaternary sediments derived from structural contours and seismic reflection line elevations. The Canterbury region has a unique and complex geology which likely has a significant impact on strong ground motions, in particular the deep and loose deposits of the Canterbury basin. The Canterbury basin has several implications on seismic wave phenomena such as long period ground motion amplification and wave guide effects. Using a realistic 3D seismic velocity model in physics-based ground motion simulation will implicitly account for such effects and the resultant simulated ground motions can be studied to gain a fundamental understanding of the salient ground motion phenomena which occurred during the Canterbury earthquakes, and the potential for repeat occurrences in the Canterbury region. Figure 1 shows the current model domain as a rectangular area between Lat=[-43.2˚,-44.0˚], and Lon=[171.5˚,173.0˚]. This essentially spans the area between the foot of the Southern Alps in the North West to Banks Peninsula in the East. Currently the model extends to a depth of 50km below sea level.
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The research is funded by Callaghan Innovation (grant number MAIN1901/PROP-69059-FELLOW-MAIN) and the Ministry of Transport New Zealand in partnership with Mainfreight Limited. Need – The freight industry is facing challenges related to climate change, including natural hazards and carbon emissions. These challenges impact the efficiency of freight networks, increase costs, and negatively affect delivery times. To address these challenges, freight logistics modelling should consider multiple variables, such as natural hazards, sustainability, and emission reduction strategies. Freight operations are complex, involving various factors that contribute to randomness, such as the volume of freight being transported, the location of customers, and truck routes. Conventional methods have limitations in simulating a large number of variables. Hence, there is a need to develop a method that can incorporate multiple variables and support freight sustainable development. Method - A minimal viable model (MVM) method was proposed to elicit tacit information from industrial clients for building a minimally sufficient simulation model at the early modelling stages. The discrete-event simulation (DES) method was applied using Arena® software to create simulation models for the Auckland and Christchurch corridor, including regional pick-up and delivery (PUD) models, Christchurch city delivery models, and linehaul models. Stochastic variables in freight operations such as consignment attributes, customer locations, and truck routes were incorporated in the simulation. The geographic information system (GIS) software ArcGIS Pro® was used to identify and analyse industrial data. The results obtained from the GIS software were applied to create DES models. Life cycle assessment (LCA) models were developed for both diesel and battery electric (BE) trucks to compare their life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and total cost of ownership (TCO) and support GHG emissions reduction. The line-haul model also included natural hazards in several scenarios, and the simulation was used to forecast the stock level of Auckland and Christchurch depots in response to each corresponding scenario. Results – DES is a powerful technique that can be employed to simulate and evaluate freight operations that exhibit high levels of variability, such as regional pickup and delivery (PUD) and linehaul. Through DES, it becomes possible to analyse multiple factors within freight operations, including transportation modes, routes, scheduling, and processing times, thereby offering valuable insights into the performance, efficiency, and reliability of the system. In addition, GIS is a useful tool for analysing and visualizing spatial data in freight operations. This is exemplified by their ability to simulate the travelling salesman problem (TSP) and conduct cluster analysis. Consequently, the integration of GIS into DES modelling is essential for improving the accuracy and reliability of freight operations analysis. The outcomes of the simulation were utilised to evaluate the ecological impact of freight transport by performing emission calculations and generating low-carbon scenarios to identify approaches for reducing the carbon footprint. LCA models were developed based on simulation results. Results showed that battery-electric trucks (BE) produced more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the cradle phase due to battery manufacturing but substantially less GHG emissions in the use phase because of New Zealand's mostly renewable energy sources. While the transition to BE could significantly reduce emissions, the financial aspect is not compelling, as the total cost of ownership (TCO) for the BE truck was about the same for ten years, despite a higher capital investment for the BE. Moreover, external incentives are necessary to justify a shift to BE trucks. By using simulation methods, the effectiveness of response plans for natural hazards can be evaluated, and the system's vulnerabilities can be identified and mitigated to minimize the risk of disruption. Simulation models can also be utilized to simulate adaptation plans to enhance the system's resilience to natural disasters. Novel contributions – The study employed a combination of DES and GIS methods to incorporate a large number of stochastic variables and driver’s decisions into freight logistics modelling. Various realistic operational scenarios were simulated, including customer clustering and PUD truck allocation. This showed that complex pickup and delivery routes with high daily variability can be represented using a model of roads and intersections. Geographic regions of high customer density, along with high daily variability could be represented by a two-tier architecture. The method could also identify delivery runs for a whole city, which has potential usefulness in market expansion to new territories. In addition, a model was developed to address carbon emissions and total cost of ownership of battery electric trucks. This showed that the transition was not straightforward because the economics were not compelling, and that policy interventions – a variety were suggested - could be necessary to encourage the transition to decarbonised freight transport. A model was developed to represent the effect of natural disasters – such as earthquake and climate change – on road travel and detour times in the line haul freight context for New Zealand. From this it was possible to predict the effects on stock levels for a variety of disruption scenarios (ferry interruption, road detours). Results indicated that some centres rather than others may face higher pressure and longer-term disturbance after the disaster subsided. Remedies including coastal shipping were modelled and shown to have the potential to limit the adverse effects. A philosophical contribution was the development of a methodology to adapt the agile method into the modelling process. This has the potential to improve the clarification of client objectives and the validity of the resulting model.
This paper presents the ongoing development of a new 3D seismic velocity model of Canterbury, New Zealand. The model explicitly represents the Canterbury sedimentary basin, and other significant geologic horizons, which are expected to have important implications on observed ground motions. The model utilizes numerous sources of data, including 3D regional tomography with a variable-depth inferred Moho, seismic reflection survey lines, geotechnical boreholes and well logs, spectral analysis of surface waves, and CPT logs which provide velocity constraints over their respective ranges of application. The model provides P- and S-wave velocity and density (i.e. Vp, Vs and p) over a grid of input points, and is presently being utilized in broadband ground motion simulations of the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Comparison of simulated ground motions with those observed in the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes will help provide a better understanding of the salient physical processes which characterized the unique set of strong ground motions recorded in this sequence of earthquake events.
This poster aims to present fragility functions for pipelines buried in liquefaction-prone soils. Existing fragility models used to quantify losses can be based on old data or use complex metrics. Addressing these issues, the proposed functions are based on the Christchurch network and soil and utilizes the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES) data, partially represented in Figure 1. Figure 1 (a) presents the pipe failure dataset, which describes the date, location and pipe on which failures occurred. Figure 1 (b) shows the simulated ground motion intensity median of the 22nd February 2011 earthquake. To develop the model, the network and soil characteristics have also been utilized
The overarching goal of this dissertation is to improve predictive capabilities of geotechnical seismic site response analyses by incorporating additional salient physical phenomena that influence site effects. Specifically, multidimensional wave-propagation effects that are neglected in conventional 1D site response analyses are incorporated by: (1) combining results of 3D regional-scale simulations with 1D nonlinear wave-propagation site response analysis, and (2) modelling soil heterogeneity in 2D site response analyses using spatially-correlated random fields to perturb soil properties. A method to combine results from 3D hybrid physics-based ground motion simulations with site-specific nonlinear site response analyses was developed. The 3D simulations capture 3D ground motion phenomena on a regional scale, while the 1D nonlinear site response, which is informed by detailed site-specific soil characterization data, can capture site effects more rigorously. Simulations of 11 moderate-to-large earthquakes from the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) at 20 strong motion stations (SMS) were used to validate simulations with observed ground motions. The predictions were compared to those from an empirically-based ground motion model (GMM), and from 3D simulations with simplified VS30- based site effects modelling. By comparing all predictions to observations at seismic recording stations, it was found that the 3D physics-based simulations can predict ground motions with comparable bias and uncertainty as the GMM, albeit, with significantly lower bias at long periods. Additionally, the explicit modelling of nonlinear site-response improves predictions significantly compared to the simplified VS30-based approach for soft-soil or atypical sites that exhibit exceptionally strong site effects. A method to account for the spatial variability of soils and wave scattering in 2D site response analyses was developed and validated against a database of vertical array sites in California. The inputs required to run the 2D analyses are nominally the same as those required for 1D analyses (except for spatial correlation parameters), enabling easier adoption in practice. The first step was to create the platform and workflow, and to perform a sensitivity study involving 5,400 2D model realizations to investigate the influence of random field input parameters on wave scattering and site response. Boundary conditions were carefully assessed to understand their effect on the modelled response and select appropriate assumptions for use on a 2D model with lateral heterogeneities. Multiple ground-motion intensity measures (IMs) were analyzed to quantify the influence from random field input parameters and boundary conditions. It was found that this method is capable of scattering seismic waves and creating spatially-varying ground motions at the ground surface. The redistribution of ground-motion energy across wider frequency bands, and the scattering attenuation of high-frequency waves in 2D analyses, resemble features observed in empirical transfer functions (ETFs) computed in other studies. The developed 2D method was subsequently extended to more complicated multi-layer soil profiles and applied to a database of 21 vertical array sites in California to test its appropriate- ness for future predictions. Again, different boundary condition and input motion assumptions were explored to extend the method to the in-situ conditions of a vertical array (with a sensor embedded in the soil). ETFs were compared to theoretical transfer functions (TTFs) from conventional 1D analyses and 2D analyses with heterogeneity. Residuals of transfer-function- based IMs, and IMs of surface ground motions, were also used as validation metrics. The spatial variability of transfer-function-based IMs was estimated from 2D models and compared to the event-to-event variability from ETFs. This method was found capable of significantly improving predictions of median ETF amplification factors, especially for sites that display higher event-to-event variability. For sites that are well represented by 1D methods, the 2D approach can underpredict amplification factors at higher modes, suggesting that the level of heterogeneity may be over-represented by the 2D random field models used in this study.
The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes were recorded over a dense strong motion network in the near-source region, yielding significant observational evidence of seismic complexities, and a basis for interpretation of multi-disciplinary datasets and induced damage to the natural and built environment. This paper provides an overview of observed strong motions from these events and retrospective comparisons with both empirical and physics-based ground motion models. Both empirical and physics-based methods provide good predictions of observations at short vibration periods in an average sense. However, observed ground motion amplitudes at specific locations, such as Heathcote Valley, are seen to systematically depart from ‘average’ empirical predictions as a result of near surface stratigraphic and topographic features which are well modelled via sitespecific response analyses. Significant insight into the long period bias in empirical predictions is obtained from the use of hybrid broadband ground motion simulation. The comparison of both empirical and physics-based simulations against a set of 10 events in the sequence clearly illustrates the potential for simulations to improve ground motion and site response prediction, both at present, and further in the future.
SeisFinder is an open-source web service developed by QuakeCoRE and the University of Canterbury, focused on enabling the extraction of output data from computationally intensive earthquake resilience calculations. Currently, SeisFinder allows users to select historical or future events and retrieve ground motion simulation outputs for requested geographical locations. This data can be used as input for other resilience calculations, such as dynamic response history analysis. SeisFinder was developed using Django, a high-level python web framework, and uses a postgreSQL database. Because our large-scale computationally-intensive numerical ground motion simulations produce big data, the actual data is stored in file systems, while the metadata is stored in the database.
The Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) of 2010-2011 produced large seismic moments up to Mw 7.1. These large, near-to-surface (<15 km) ruptures triggered >6,000 rockfall boulders on the Port Hills of Christchurch, many of which impacted houses and affected the livelihoods of people within the impacted area. From these disastrous and unpredicted natural events a need arose to be able to assess the areas affected by rockfall events in the future, where it is known that a rockfall is possible from a specific source outcrop but the potential boulder runout and dynamics are not understood. The distribution of rockfall deposits is largely constrained by the physical properties and processes of the boulder and its motion such as block density, shape and size, block velocity, bounce height, impact and rebound angle, as well as the properties of the substrate. Numerical rockfall models go some way to accounting for all the complex factors in an algorithm, commonly parameterised in a user interface where site-specific effects can be calibrated. Calibration of these algorithms requires thorough field checks and often experimental practises. The purpose of this project, which began immediately following the most destructive rupture of the CES (February 22, 2011), is to collate data to characterise boulder falls, and to use this information, supplemented by a set of anthropogenic boulder fall data, to perform an in-depth calibration of the three-dimensional numerical rockfall model RAMMS::Rockfall. The thesis covers the following topics: • Use of field data to calibrate RAMMS. Boulder impact trails in the loess-colluvium soils at Rapaki Bay have been used to estimate ranges of boulder velocities and bounce heights. RAMMS results replicate field data closely; it is concluded that the model is appropriate for analysing the earthquake-triggered boulder trails at Rapaki Bay, and that it can be usefully applied to rockfall trajectory and hazard assessment at this and similar sites elsewhere. • Detailed analysis of dynamic rockfall processes, interpreted from recorded boulder rolling experiments, and compared to RAMMS simulated results at the same site. Recorded rotational and translational velocities of a particular boulder show that the boulder behaves logically and dynamically on impact with different substrate types. Simulations show that seasonal changes in soil moisture alter rockfall dynamics and runout predictions within RAMMS, and adjustments are made to the calibration to reflect this; suggesting that in hazard analysis a rockfall model should be calibrated to dry rather than wet soil conditions to anticipate the most serious outcome. • Verifying the model calibration for a separate site on the Port Hills. The results of the RAMMS simulations show the effectiveness of calibration against a real data set, as well as the effectiveness of vegetation as a rockfall barrier/retardant. The results of simulations are compared using hazard maps, where the maximum runouts match well the mapped CES fallen boulder maximum runouts. The results of the simulations in terms of frequency distribution of deposit locations on the slope are also compared with those of the CES data, using the shadow angle tool to apportion slope zones. These results also replicate real field data well. Results show that a maximum runout envelope can be mapped, as well as frequency distribution of deposited boulders for hazard (and thus risk) analysis purposes. The accuracy of the rockfall runout envelope and frequency distribution can be improved by comprehensive vegetation and substrate mapping. The topics above define the scope of the project, limiting the focus to rockfall processes on the Port Hills, and implications for model calibration for the wider scientific community. The results provide a useful rockfall analysis methodology with a defensible and replicable calibration process, that has the potential to be applied to other lithologies and substrates. Its applications include a method of analysis for the selection and positioning of rockfall countermeasure design; site safety assessment for scaling and demolition works; and risk analysis and land planning for future construction in Christchurch.
he strong motion station at Heathcote Valley School (HVSC) recorded unusually high peak ground accelerations (2.21g vertical and 1.41g horizontal) during the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Ground motions recorded at HVSC in numerous other events also exhibited consistently higher intensities compared with nearby strong motion stations. We investigated the underlying causes of such high intensity ground motions at HVSC by means of 2D dynamic finite element analyses, using recorded ground motions during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. The model takes advantage of a LiDAR-based digital elevation model (DEM) to account for the surface topography, while the geometry and dynamic properties of the surficial soils are characterized by seismic cone penetration tests (sCPT) and Multi-Channel Analyses of Surface Waves (MASW). Comparisons of simulated and recorded ground motions suggests that our model performs well for distant events, while for near-field events, ground motions recorded at the adopted reference station at Lyttelton Port are not reasonable input motions for the simulation. The simulations suggest that Rayleigh waves generated at the inclined interface of the surficial colluvium and underlying volcanic rock strongly affect the ground motions recorded at HVSC, in particular, being the dominant contributor to the recorded vertical motions.
This study provides an initial examination of source parameter uncertainty in a New Zealand ground motion simulation model, by simulating multiple event realisations with perturbed source parameters. Small magnitude events in Canterbury have been selected for this study due to the small number of source input parameters, the wealth of recorded data, and the lack of appreciable off-fault non-linear effects. Which provides greater opportunity to identify systematic source, path and site effects, required to robustly investigate the causes of uncertainty.
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a tool offers opportunities for modeling the inherent complexity and uncertainty associated with socio-environmental systems. This study draws on New Zealand ski
fields (multiple locations) as socio- environmental systems while considering their perceived resilience to low
probability but potential high consequences catastrophic natural events (specifically earthquakes). We gathered
data at several ski fields using a mixed methodology including: geomorphic assessment, qualitative interviews,
and an adaptation of Ozesmi and Ozesmi’s (2003) multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) approach. The data
gathered from FCM are qualitatively condensed, and aggregated to three different participant social groups. The
social groups include ski fields users, ski industry workers, and ski field managers. Both quantitative and
qualitative indices are used to analyze social cognitive maps to identify critical nodes for ANN simulations. The
simulations experiment with auto-associative neural networks for developing adaptive preparation, response and
recovery strategies. Moreover, simulations attempt to identify key priorities for preparation, response, and
recovery for improving resilience to earthquakes in these complex and dynamic environments. The novel mixed
methodology is presented as a means of linking physical and social sciences in high complexity, high uncertainty
socio-environmental systems. Simulation results indicate that participants perceived that increases in Social
Preparation Action, Social Preparation Resources, Social Response Action and Social Response Resources have
a positive benefit in improving the resilience to earthquakes of ski fields’ stakeholders.
This paper summarizes the development of a high-resolution surficial shear wave velocity model based on the combination of the large high-spatial-density database of cone penetration test (CPT) logs in and around Christchurch, New Zealand and a recently-developed Christchurch-specific empirical correlation between soil shear wave velocity and CPT. This near-surface shear wave velocity model has applications for site characterization efforts via the development of maps of time-averaged shear wave velocities over specific depths, as well as use in site response analysis and ground motion simulation.
This poster provides a summary of the development of a 3D shallow (z<40m) shear wave velocity (Vs) model for the urban Christchurch, New Zealand region. The model is based on a recently developed Christchurch-specific empirical correlation between Vs and cone penetration test (CPT) data (McGann et al. 2014a,b) and the large high-density database of CPT logs in the greater Christchurch urban area (> 15,000 logs as of 01/01/2014). In particular, the 3D model provides shear wave velocities for the surficial Springston Formation, Christchurch Formation, and Riccarton gravel layers which generally comprise the upper 40m in the Christchurch urban area. Point-estimates are provided on a 200m-by- 200m grid from which interpolation to other locations can be performed. This model has applications for future site characterization and numerical modeling efforts via maps of timeaveraged Vs over specific depths (e.g. Vs30, Vs10) and via the identification of typical Vs profiles for different regions and soil behaviour types within Christchurch. In addition, the Vs model can be used to constrain the near-surface velocities for the 3D seismic velocity model of the Canterbury basin (Lee et al. 2014) currently being developed for the purpose of broadband ground motion simulation.
Earthquakes cause significant damage to buildings due to strong vibration of the ground. Levitating houses using magnets and electromagnets would provide a complete isolation of ground motion for protecting buildings from seismic damage. Two types of initial configuration for the electromagnet system were proposed with the same air gap (10mm) between the electromagnet and reluctance plate. Both active and passive controller are modelled to investigate the feasibility of using a vibration control system for stabilizing the magnetic system within the designed air gap (10mm) in the vertical direction. A nonlinear model for the magnetic system is derived to implement numerical simulation of structural response under the earthquake record in Christchurch Botanic Gardens on 21 February 2011. The performance of the uncontrolled and the controlled systems are compared and the optimal combination of control gains are determined for the PID active controller. Simulation results show both active PID controller with constant and nonlinear attracting force are able to provide an effective displacement control within the required air gap (+/-5mm). The maximum control force demand for the PID controller in the presence of nonlinear attracting force is 4.1kN, while the attracting force in equilibrium position is 10kN provided by the electromagnet. These results show the feasibility of levitating a house using the current electromagnet and PID controller. Finally, initial results of passive control using two permanent magnets or dampers show the structural responses can be effectively reduced and centralized to +/-1mm using a nonlinear centring barrier function.
Reconnaissance reports have highlighted the poor performance of non-ductile reinforced concrete buildings during the 2010-11 Canterbury earthquakes. These buildings are widely expected to result in significant losses under future earthquakes due to their seismic vulnerability and prevalence in densely populated urban areas. Wellington, for example, contains more than 70 pre-1970s multi-storey reinforced concrete buildings, ranging in height from 5 to 18 storeys. This study seeks to characterise the seismic performance and evaluate the likely failure modes of a typical pre-1970s reinforced concrete building in Wellington, by conducting advanced numerical simulations to evaluate its 3D nonlinear dynamic response. A representative 9-storey office building constructed in 1951 is chosen for this study and modelled in the finite element analysis programme DIANA, using a previously developed and validated approach to predict the failure modes of doubly reinforced walls with confined boundary regions. The structure consists of long walls and robust framing elements resulting in a stiff lateral load resisting system. Barbell-shaped walls are flanked by stiff columns with sufficient transverse reinforcement to serve as boundary regions. Curved shell elements are used to model the walls and their boundary columns, for which the steel reinforcement is explicitly modelled. Line elements are used to model the frame elements. The steel reinforcement in each member is explicitly modelled. The floor slabs are modelled using elastic shell elements. The model is analysed under short and long duration ground motions selected to match site specific targets in Wellington at the DBE and MCE intensity levels. The observed response of the building including drift profiles at each intesity level, strain localization effects around wall openings, and the influence of bidirectional loading are discussed.
The context of this study is the increasing need for public transport as issues over high private vehicle usage are becoming increasingly obvious. Public transport services need to compete with private transport to improve patronage, and issues with reliability need to be addressed. Bus bunching affects reliability through disruptions to the scheduled headways. The purpose of this study was to collect and analyse data to compare how travel time and dwell time vary, to explore the variation of key variables, and to better understand the sources of these variations. The Orbiter bus service in Christchurch was used as a case study, as it is particularly vulnerable to bus bunching. The dwell time was found to be more variable than travel time. It appeared the Canterbury earthquake had significantly reduced the average speeds for the Orbiter service. In 1964, Newell and Potts described a basic bus bunching theory, which was used as the basis for an Excel bus bunching model. This model allows input variables to vary stochastically. Random values were generated from four specified distributions derived from manually collected data, allowing variance across all bus platforms and buses. However the complexity resulted in stability and difficulty in achieving convergence, so the model was run in single Monte Carlo simulations. The outputs were realistic and showed a higher degree of bunching behaviour than previous models. The model demonstrated bunching phenomena that had not been observed in previous models, including spontaneously un-pairing, overtaking of buses delayed at platforms, and odd-numbered bunches of three buses. Furthermore, the study identified areas of further research for data collection and model development.
The Catholic Cathedral is classified as a category 1 listed heritage building constructed largely of unreinforced stone masonry, and was significantly damaged in the recent Canterbury earthquakes of 2010 and 2011. In the 2010 event the building presented slight to moderta damage, meanwhile in the 2011 one experienced ground shaking in excess of its capacity leading to block failures and partial collapse of parts of the building, which left the building standing but still posing a significant hazard. In this paper we discuss the approach to develop the earthquake analysis of the building by 3D numerical simulations, and the results are compared/calibrated with the observed damage of the 2010 earthquake. Very accurate records were obtained during both earthquakes due to a record station located least than 80 m of distance from the building and used in the simulations. Moreover it is included in the model the soil structure interaction because it was observed that the ground and foundation played an important role on the seismic behavior of the structure. A very good agreement was found between the real observed damage and the nonlinear dynamic simulations described trough inelastic deformation (cracking) and building´s performance.
Currently there is a worldwide renaissance in timber building design. At the University of Canterbury, new structural systems for commercial multistorey timber buildings have been under development since 2005. These systems incorporate large timber sections connected by high strength post-tensioning tendons, and timber-concrete composite floor systems, and aim to compete with existing structural systems in terms of cost, constructability, operational and seismic performance. The development of post-tensioned timber systems has created a need for improved lateral force design approaches for timber buildings. Current code provisions for seismic design are based on the strength of the structure, and do not adequately account for its deformation. Because timber buildings are often governed by deflection, rather than strength, this can lead to the exceedence of design displacement limitations imposed by New Zealand codes. Therefore, accurate modeling approaches which define both the strength and deformation of post-tensioned timber buildings are required. Furthermore, experimental testing is required to verify the accuracy of these models. This thesis focuses on the development and experimental verification of modeling approaches for the lateral force design of post-tensioned timber frame and wall buildings. The experimentation consisted of uni-direcitonal and bi-directional quasi-static earthquake simulation on a two-thirds scale, two-storey post-tensioned timber frame and wall building with timber-concrete composite floors. The building was subjected to lateral drifts of up to 3% and demonstrated excellent seismic performance, exhibiting little damage. The building was instrumented and analyzed, providing data for the calibration of analytical and numerical models. Analytical and numerical models were developed for frame, wall and floor systems that account for significant deformation components. The models predicted the strength of the structural systems for a given design performance level. The static responses predicted by the models were compared with both experimental data and finite element models to evaluate their accuracy. The frame, wall and floor models were then incorporated into an existing lateral force design procedure known as displacement-based design and used to design several frame and wall structural systems. Predictions of key engineering demand parameters, such as displacement, drift, interstorey shear, interstorey moment and floor accelerations, were compared with the results of dynamic time-history analysis. It was concluded that the numerical and analytical models, presented in this thesis, are a sound basis for determining the lateral response of post-tensioned timber buildings. However, future research is required to further verify and improve these prediction models.
This presentation summarizes the development of high-resolution surficial soil velocity models in the Canterbury, New Zealand basin. Shallow (<30m) shear wave velocities were primarily computed based on a combination of a large database of over 15,000 cone penetration test (CPT) logs in and around Christchurch, and a recently-developed Christchurch-specific empirical correlation between soil shear wave velocity and CPT. Large active-source testing at 22 locations and ambient-wavefield surface wave and H/V testing at over 80 locations were utilized in combination with 1700 water well logs to constrain the inter-bedded stratigraphy and velocity of Quaternary sediments up to depths of several hundred meters. Finally, seismic reflection profiles and the ambient-wavefield surface wave data provide constraint on velocities from several hundred meters to several kilometres. At all depths, the high resolution data illustrates the complexity of the soil conditions in the region, and the developed 3D models are presently being used in broadband ground motion simulations to further interpret the observed strong ground motions in the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence.
This article presents a quantitative case study on the site amplification effect observed at Heathcote Valley, New Zealand, during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence for 10 events that produced notable ground acceleration amplitudes up to 1.4g and 2.2g in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. We performed finite element analyses of the dynamic response of the valley, accounting for the realistic basin geometry and the soil non-linear response. The site-specific simulations performed significantly better than both empirical ground motion models and physics based regional-scale ground motion simulations (which empirically accounts for the site effects), reducing the spectral acceleration prediction bias by a factor of two in short vibration periods. However, our validation exercise demonstrated that it was necessary to quantify the level of uncertainty in the estimated bedrock motion using multiple recorded events, to understand how much the simplistic model can over- or under-estimate the ground motion intensities. Inferences from the analyses suggest that the Rayleigh waves generated near the basin edge contributed significantly to the observed high frequency (f>3Hz) amplification, in addition to the amplification caused by the strong soil-rock impedance contrast at the site fundamental frequency. Models with and without considering soil non-linear response illustrate, as expected, that the linear elastic assumption severely overestimates ground motions in high frequencies for strong earthquakes, especially when the contribution of basin edge-generated Rayleigh waves becomes significant. Our analyses also demonstrate that the effect of pressure-dependent soil velocities on the high frequency ground motions is as significant as the amplification caused by the basin edge-generated Rayleigh waves.
This paper presents a seismic velocity model of Canterbury, New Zealand based on 3D geologic surfaces and velocities from a range of data sources. The model provides the 3D crustal structure in the region at multiple length scales for seismic wave propagation simulations, such as broadband ground motion and shallow site response analyses related to understanding the ground motions and site responses during the 2010- 2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Pre-Quaternary geologic horizons are calculated based on the reinterpretation of a comprehensive network of seismic reflection surveys from seven different campaigns over the past 50 years, as well as point constraints across an array of petroleum industry drill holes. Particular attention is given to a detailed representation of Quaternary stratigraphy, representing shallow (z<250m) near-surface layers in the model. Seismic velocities are obtained from seismic reflection processing (for Vp) and also recently performed active and passive surface wave analyses (for Vs). Over 1,700 water wells in the region are used to constrain the complex inter-bedded Quaternary stratigraphy (gravels, sands, silts, organics etc.) near the coastline, including beneath urban Christchurch, which has resulted from fluvial deposition and marine regression and transgression. For the near-surface Springston and Christchurch Formations in the Christchurch urban area (z<50m), high-spatial resolution seismic velocities (including Vs30 ) were obtained from over 13,000 cone penetration tests combined with a recently developed CPT-Vs correlation.
Deformational properties of soil, in terms of modulus and damping, exert a great influence on seismic response of soil sites. However, these properties for sands containing some portion of fines particles have not been systematically addressed. In addition, simultaneous modelling of the modulus and damping behaviour of soils during cyclic loading is desirable. This study presents an experimental and computational investigation into the deformational properties of sands containing fines content in the context of site response analysis. The experimental investigation is carried on sandy soils sourced from Christchurch, New Zealand using a dynamic triaxial apparatus while the computational aspect is based on the framework of total-stress one-dimensional (1D) cyclic behaviour of soil. The experimental investigation focused on a systematic study on the deformational behaviour of sand with different amounts of fines content (particle diameter ≤ 75µm) under drained conditions. The silty sands were prepared by mixing clean sand with three different percentages of fines content. A series of bender element tests at small-strain range and stress-controlled dynamic triaxial tests at medium to high-strain ranges were conducted on samples of clean sand and silty sand. This allowed measurements of linear and nonlinear deformational properties of the same specimen for a wide strain range. The testing program was designed to quantify the effects of void ratio and fines content on the low-strain stiffness of the silty sand as well as on the nonlinear stress-strain relationship and corresponding shear modulus and damping properties as a function of cyclic shear strains. Shear wave velocity, Vs, and maximum shear modulus, Gmax, of silty sand was shown to be significantly smaller than the respective values for clean sands measured at the same void ratio, e, or same relative density, Dr. However, the test results showed that the difference in the level of nonlinearity between clean sand and silty sands was small. For loose samples prepared at an identical relative density, the behaviour of clean sand was slightly less nonlinear as compared to sandy soils with higher fines content. This difference in the nonlinear behaviour of clean sand and sandy soils was negligible for dense soils. Furthermore, no systematic influence of fines content on the material damping curve was observed for sands with fines content FC = 0 to 30%. In order to normalize the effects of fines on moduli of sands, equivalent granular void ratio, e*, was employed. This was done through quantifying the participation of fines content in the force transfer chain of the sand matrix. As such, a unified framework for modelling of the variability of shear wave velocity, Vs, (or shear modulus, Gmax) with void ratio was achieved for clean sands and sands with fines, irrespective of their fines content. Furthermore, modelling of the cyclic stress-strain behaviour based on this experimental program was investigated. The modelling effort focused on developing a simple constitutive model which simultaneously models the soil modulus and damping relationships with shear strains observed in laboratory tests. The backbone curve of the cyclic model was adopted based on a modified version of Kondner and Zelasko (MKZ) hyperbolic function, with a curvature coefficient, a. In order to simulate the hysteretic cycles, the conventional Masing rules (Pyke 1979) were revised. The parameter n, in the Masing’s criteria was assumed to be a function of material damping, h, measured in the laboratory. As such the modulus and damping produced by the numerical model could match the stress-strain behaviour observed in the laboratory over the course of this study. It was shown that the Masing parameter n, is strain-dependent and generally takes values of n ≤ 2. The model was then verified through element test simulations under different cyclic loadings. It was shown that the model could accurately simulate the modulus and the damping simultaneously. The model was then incorporated within the OpenSees computational platform and was used to scrutinize the effects of damping on one-dimensional seismic site response analysis. For this purpose, several strong motion stations which recorded the Canterbury earthquake sequence were selected. The soil profiles were modelled as semi-infinite horizontally layered deposits overlying a uniform half-space subjected to vertically propagating shear waves. The advantages and limitations of the nonlinear model in terms of simulating soil nonlinearity and associated material damping were further scrutinized. It was shown that generally, the conventional Masing criteria unconservatively may underestimate some response parameters such as spectral accelerations. This was shown to be due to larger hysteretic damping modelled by using conventional Masing criteria. In addition, maximum shear strains within the soil profiles were also computed smaller in comparison to the values calculated by the proposed model. Further analyses were performed to study the simulation of backbone curve beyond the strain ranges addressed in the experimental phase of this study. A key issue that was identified was that relying only on the modulus reduction curves to simulate the stress-strain behaviour of soil may not capture the actual soil strength at larger strains. Hence, strength properties of the soil layer should also be incorporated to accurately simulate the backbone curve.
In 2010 and 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand experienced a series of earthquakes that caused extensive damage across the city, but primarily to the Central Business District (CBD) and eastern suburbs. A major feature of the observed damage was extensive and severe soil liquefaction and associated ground damage, affecting buildings and infrastructure. The behaviour of soil during earthquake loading is a complex phenomena that can be most comprehensively analysed through advanced numerical simulations to aid engineers in the design of important buildings and critical facilities. These numerical simulations are highly dependent on the capabilities of the constitutive soil model to replicate the salient features of sand behaviour during cyclic loading, including liquefaction and cyclic mobility, such as the Stress-Density model. For robust analyses advanced soil models require extensive testing to derive engineering parameters under varying loading conditions for calibration. Prior to this research project little testing on Christchurch sands had been completed, and none from natural samples containing important features such as fabric and structure of the sand that may be influenced by the unique stress-history of the deposit. This research programme is focussed on the characterisation of Christchurch sands, as typically found in the CBD, to facilitate advanced soil modelling in both res earch and engineering practice - to simulate earthquake loading on proposed foundation design solutions including expensive ground improvement treatments. This has involved the use of a new Gel Push (GP) sampler to obtain undisturbed samples from below the ground-water table. Due to the variable nature of fluvial deposition, samples with a wide range of soil gradations, and accordingly soil index properties, were obtained from the sampling sites. The quality of the samples is comprehensively examined using available data from the ground investigation and laboratory testing. A meta-quality assessment was considered whereby a each method of evaluation contributed to the final quality index assigned to the specimen. The sampling sites were characterised with available geotechnical field-based test data, primarily the Cone Penetrometer Test (CPT), supported by borehole sampling and shear-wave velocity testing. This characterisation provides a geo- logical context to the sampling sites and samples obtained for element testing. It also facilitated the evaluation of sample quality. The sampling sites were evaluated for liquefaction hazard using the industry standard empirical procedures, and showed good correlation to observations made following the 22 February 2011 earthquake. However, the empirical method over-predicted liquefaction occurrence during the preceding 4 September 2010 event, and under-predicted for the subsequent 13 June 2011 event. The reasons for these discrepancies are discussed. The response of the GP samples to monotonic and cyclic loading was measured in the laboratory through triaxial testing at the University of Canterbury geomechanics laboratory. The undisturbed samples were compared to reconstituted specimens formed in the lab in an attempt to quantify the effect of fabric and structure in the Christchurch sands. Further testing of moist tamped re- constituted specimens (MT) was conducted to define important state parameters and state-dependent properties including the Critical State Line (CSL), and the stress-strain curve for varying state index. To account for the wide-ranging soil gradations, selected representative specimens were used to define four distinct CSL. The input parameters for the Stress-Density Model (S-D) were derived from a suite of tests performed on each representative soil, and with reference to available GP sample data. The results of testing were scrutinised by comparing the data against expected trends. The influence of fabric and structure of the GP samples was observed to result in similar cyclic strength curves at 5 % Double Amplitude (DA) strain criteria, however on close inspection of the test data, clear differences emerged. The natural samples exhibited higher compressibility during initial loading cycles, but thereafter typically exhibited steady growth of plastic strain and excess pore water pressure towards and beyond the strain criteria and initial liquefaction, and no flow was observed. By contrast the reconstituted specimens exhibited a stiffer response during initial loading cycles, but exponential growth in strains and associated excess pore water pressure beyond phase-transformation, and particularly after initial liquefaction where large strains were mobilised in subsequent cycles. These behavioural differences were not well characterised by the cyclic strength curve at 5 % DA strain level, which showed a similar strength for both GP samples and MT specimens. A preliminary calibration of the S-D model for a range of soil gradations is derived from the suite of laboratory test data. Issues encountered include the influence of natural structure on the peak-strength–state index relationship, resulting in much higher peak strengths than typically observed for sands in the literature. For the S-D model this resulted in excessive stiffness to be modelled during cyclic mobility, when the state index becomes large momentarily, causing strain development to halt. This behaviour prevented modelling the observed re- sponse of silty sands to large strains, synonymous with “liquefaction”. Efforts to reduce this effect within the current formulation are proposed as well as future research to address this issue.
This paper investigates the effects of variability in source rupture parameters on site-specific physics-based simulated ground motions, ascertained through the systematic analysis of ground motion intensity measures. As a preliminary study, we consider simulations of the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake using the Graves and Pitarka (2015) methodology. The effects of source variability are considered via a sensitivity study in which parameters (hypocentre location, earthquake magnitude, average rupture velocity, fault geometry and the Brune stress parameter) are individually varied by one standard deviation. The sensitivity of simulated ground motion intensity measures are subsequently compared against observational data. The preliminary results from this study indicate that uncertainty in the stress parameter and the rupture velocity have the most significant effect on the high frequency amplitudes. Conversely, magnitude uncertainty was found to be most influential on the spectral acceleration amplitudes at low frequencies. Further work is required to extend this preliminary study to exhaustively consider more events and to include parameter covariance. The ultimate results of this research will assist in the validation of the overall simulation method’s accuracy in capturing various rupture parameters, which is essential for the use of simulated ground motion models in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.
