This research aims to explore how business models of SMEs revolve in the face of a crisis to be resilient. The business model canvas was used as a tool to analyse business models of SMEs in Greater Christchurch. The purpose was to evaluate the changes SMEs brought in their business models after hit by a series of earthquake in 2010 and 2011. The idea was to conduct interviews of business owners and analyse using grounded theory methods. Because this method is iterative, a tentative theoretical framework was proposed, half way through the data collection. It was realised that owner specific characteristics were more prominent in the data than the elements business model. Although, SMEs in this study experienced several operational changes in their business models such as change of location and modification of payment terms. However, the suggested framework highlights how owner specific attributes influence the survival of a small business. Small businesses and their owners are extremely interrelated that the business models personify the owner specific characteristics. In other words, the adaptation of the business model reflects the extent to which the owner possess these attributes. These attributes are (a) Mindsets – the attitude and optimism of business owner; (b) Adaptive coping – the ability of business owner to take corrective actions; and (c) Social capital – the network of a business owner, including family, friends, neighbours and business partners.
Geospatial liquefaction models aim to predict liquefaction using data that is free and readily-available. This data includes (i) common ground-motion intensity measures; and (ii) geospatial parameters (e.g., among many, distance to rivers, distance to coast, and Vs30 estimated from topography) which are used to infer characteristics of the subsurface without in-situ testing. Since their recent inception, such models have been used to predict geohazard impacts throughout New Zealand (e.g., in conjunction with regional ground-motion simulations). While past studies have demonstrated that geospatial liquefaction-models show great promise, the resolution and accuracy of the geospatial data underlying these models is notably poor. As an example, mapped rivers and coastlines often plot hundreds of meters from their actual locations. This stems from the fact that geospatial models aim to rapidly predict liquefaction anywhere in the world and thus utilize the lowest common denominator of available geospatial data, even though higher quality data is often available (e.g., in New Zealand). Accordingly, this study investigates whether the performance of geospatial models can be improved using higher-quality input data. This analysis is performed using (i) 15,101 liquefaction case studies compiled from the 2010-2016 Canterbury Earthquakes; and (ii) geospatial data readily available in New Zealand. In particular, we utilize alternative, higher-quality data to estimate: locations of rivers and streams; location of coastline; depth to ground water; Vs30; and PGV. Most notably, a region-specific Vs30 model improves performance (Figs. 3-4), while other data variants generally have little-to-no effect, even when the “standard” and “high-quality” values differ significantly (Fig. 2). This finding is consistent with the greater sensitivity of geospatial models to Vs30, relative to any other input (Fig. 5), and has implications for modeling in locales worldwide where high quality geospatial data is available.
Background This study examines the performance of site response analysis via nonlinear total-stress 1D wave-propagation for modelling site effects in physics-based ground motion simulations of the 2010-2011 Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence. This approach allows for explicit modeling of 3D ground motion phenomena at the regional scale, as well as detailed nonlinear site effects at the local scale. The approach is compared to a more commonly used empirical VS30 (30 m time-averaged shear wave velocity)-based method for computing site amplification as proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2010, 2015), and to empirical ground motion prediction via a ground motion model (GMM).
Natural catastrophes are increasing worldwide. They are becoming more frequent but also more severe and impactful on our built environment leading to extensive damage and losses. Earthquake events account for the smallest part of natural events; nevertheless seismic damage led to the most fatalities and significant losses over the period 1981-2016 (Munich Re). Damage prediction is helpful for emergency management and the development of earthquake risk mitigation projects. Recent design efforts focused on the application of performance-based design engineering where damage estimation methodologies use fragility and vulnerability functions. However, the approach does not explicitly specify the essential criteria leading to economic losses. There is thus a need for an improved methodology that finds the critical building elements related to significant losses. The here presented methodology uses data science techniques to identify key building features that contribute to the bulk of losses. It uses empirical data collected on site during earthquake reconnaissance mission to train a machine learning model that can further be used for the estimation of building damage post-earthquake. The first model is developed for Christchurch. Empirical building damage data from the 2010-2011 earthquake events is analysed to find the building features that contributed the most to damage. Once processed, the data is used to train a machine-learning model that can be applied to estimate losses in future earthquake events.
Our poster will present on-going QuakeCoRE-founded work on strong motion seismology for Dunedin-Mosgiel area, focusing on ground motion simulations for Dunedin Central Business District (CBD). Source modelling and ground motion simulations are being carried out using the SCEC (Southern California Earthquakes Center) Broad Band simulation Platform (BBP). The platform computes broadband (0-10 Hz) seismograms for earthquakes and was first implemented at the University of Otago in 2016. As large earthquakes has not been experienced in Dunedin in the time of period of instrumental recording, user-specified scenario simulations are of great value. The Akatore Fault, the most active fault in Otago and closest major fault to Dunedin, is the source focused on in the present study. Simulations for various Akatore Fault source scenarios are run and presented. Path and site effects are key components considered in the simulation process. A 1D shear wave velocity profile is required by SCEC BBP, and this is being generated to represent the Akatore-to-CBD path and site within the BBP. A 3D shear velocity model, with high resolution within Dunedin CBD, is being developed in parallel with this study (see Sangster et al. poster). This model will be the basis for developing a 3D shear wave velocity model for greater Dunedin-Mosgiel area for future ground motion simulations, using Canterbury software (currently under development).
A review of the literature showed the lack of a truly effective damage avoidance solution for timber or hybrid timber moment resisting frames (MRFs). Full system damage avoidance selfcentring behaviour is difficult to achieve with existing systems due to damage to the floor slab caused by beam-elongation. A novel gravity rocking, self-centring beam-column joint with inherent and supplemental friction energy dissipation is proposed for low-medium rise buildings in all seismic zones where earthquake actions are greater than wind. Steel columns and timber beams are used in the hybrid MRF such that both the beam and column are continuous thus avoiding beam-elongation altogether. Corbels on the columns support the beams and generate resistance and self-centring through rocking under the influence of gravity. Supplemental friction sliders at the top of the beams resist sliding of the floor whilst dissipating energy as the floor lifts on the corbels and returns. 1:20 scale tests of 3-storey one-by-two bay building based on an earlier iteration of the proposed concept served as proof-of-concept and highlighted areas for improvement. A 1:5 scale 3-storey one-by-one bay building was subsequently designed. Sub-assembly tests of the beam-top asymmetric friction sliders demonstrated repeatable hysteresis. Quasi-static tests of the full building demonstrated a ‘flat bottomed’ flag-shaped hysteresis. Shake table tests to a suite of seven earthquakes scaled for Wellington with site soil type D to the serviceability limit state (SLS), ultimate limit state (ULS) and maximum credible event (MCE) intensity corresponding to an average return period of 25, 500 and 2500 years respectively were conducted. Additional earthquake records from the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquakes we included. A peak drift of 0.6%, 2.5% and 3.8% was reached for the worst SLS, ULS and MCE earthquake respectively whereas a peak drift of 4.5% was reached for the worst Christchurch record for tests in the plane of the MRF. Bi-directional tests were also conducted with the building oriented at 45 degrees on the shake table and the excitation factored by 1.41 to maintain the component in the direction of the MRF. Shear walls with friction slider hold-downs which reached similar drifts to the MRF were provided in the orthogonal direction. Similar peak drifts were reached by the MRF in the bi-directional tests, when the excitation was amplified as intended. The building self-centred with a maximum residual drift of 0.06% in the dynamic tests and demonstrated no significant damage. The member actions were magnified by up to 100% due to impact upon return of the floor after uplift when the peak drift reached 4.5%. Nonetheless, all of the members and connections remained essentially linearelastic. The shake table was able to produce a limited peak velocity of 0.275 m/s and this limited the severity of several of the ULS, MCE and Christchurch earthquakes, especially the near-field records with a large velocity pulse. The full earthquakes with uncapped velocity were simulated in a numerical model developed in SAP2000. The corbel supports were modelled with the friction isolator link element and the top sliders were modelled with a multi-linear plastic link element in parallel with a friction spring damper. The friction spring damper simulated the increase in resistance with increasing joint rotation and a near zero return stiffness, as exhibited by the 1:5 scale test building. A good match was achieved between the test quasi-static global force-displacement response and the numerical model, except a less flat unloading curve in the numerical model. The peak drift from the shake table tests also matched well. Simulations were also run for the full velocity earthquakes, including vertical ground acceleration and different floor imposed load scenarios. Excessive drift was predicted by the numerical model for the full velocity near-field earthquakes at the MCE intensity and a rubber stiffener for increasing the post joint-opening stiffness was found to limit the drift to 4.8%. Vertical ground acceleration had little effect on the global response. The system generates most of its lateral resistance from the floor weight, therefore increasing the floor imposed load increased the peak drift, but less than it would if the resistance of the system did not increase due to the additional floor load. A seismic design procedure was discussed under the framework of the existing direct displacement-based design method. An expression for calculating the area-based equivalent viscous damping (EVD) was derived and a conservative correction factor of 0.8 was suggested. A high EVD of up to about 15% can be achieved with the proposed system at high displacement ductility levels if the resistance of the top friction sliders is maximised without compromising reliable return of the floor after uplift. Uniform strength joints with an equal corbel length up the height of the building and similar inter-storey drifts result in minimal relative inter-floor uplift, except between the first floor and ground. Guidelines for detailing the joint for damage avoidance including bi-directional movement were also developed.
Knowing how to rapidly rebuild disaster-damaged infrastructure, while deciding appropriate recovery strategies and catering for future investment is a matter of core interest to government decision makers, utility providers, and business sectors. The purpose of this research is to explore the effects of decisions and outcomes for physical reconstruction on the overall recovery process of horizontal infrastructure in New Zealand using the Canterbury and Kaikoura earthquakes as cases. A mixed approach including a systematic review, questionnaire survey and semi-structured interviews is used to capture perspectives of those involved in reconstruction process and gain insights into the effect of critical elements on infrastructure downtime. Findings from this research will contribute towards advancements of a systems dynamics model considering critical decision-making variables across phases of the reconstruction process to assess how these variables affect the rebuild process and the corresponding downtime. This project will improve the ability to explore alternative resilience improvement pathways and test the efficacy of alternative means for facilitating a faster and better reconstruction process.
Asset management in power systems is exercised to improve network reliability to provide confidence and security for customers and asset owners. While there are well-established reliability metrics that are used to measure and manage business-as-usual disruptions, an increasing appreciation of the consequences of low-probability high-impact events means that resilience is increasingly being factored into asset management in order to provide robustness and redundancy to components and wider networks. This is particularly important for electricity systems, given that a range of other infrastructure lifelines depend upon their operation. The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence provides valuable insights into electricity system criticality and resilience in the face of severe earthquake impacts. While above-ground assets are relatively easy to monitor and repair, underground assets such as cables emplaced across wide areas in the distribution network are difficult to monitor, identify faults on, and repair. This study has characterised in detail the impacts to buried electricity cables in Christchurch resulting from seismically-induced ground deformation caused primarily by liquefaction and lateral spread. Primary modes of failure include cable bending, stretching, insulation damage, joint braking and, being pulled off other equipment such as substation connections. Performance and repair data have been compiled into a detailed geospatial database, which in combination with spatial models of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and ground deformation, will be used to establish rigorous relationships between seismicity and performance. These metrics will be used to inform asset owners of network performance in future earthquakes, further assess component criticality, and provide resilience metrics.
Reinforced concrete buildings that satisfied modern seismic design criteria generally behaved as expected during the recent Canterbury and Kaikoura earthquakes in New Zealand, forming plastic hinges in intended locations. While this meant that life-safety performance objectives were met, widespread demolition and heavy economic losses took place in the aftermath of the earthquakes.The Christchurch central business district was particularly hard hit, with over 60% of the multistorey reinforced concrete buildings being demolished. A lack of knowledge on the post-earthquake residual capacity of reinforced concrete buildings was a contributing factor to the mass demolition.Many aspects related to the assessment of earthquake-damaged reinforced concrete buildings require further research. This thesis focusses on improving the state of knowledge on the post earthquakeresidual capacity and reparability of moderately damaged plastic hinges, with an emphasis on plastic hinges typical of modern moment frame structures. The repair method focussed on is epoxy injection of cracks and patching of spalled concrete. A targeted test program on seventeen nominally identical large-scale ductile reinforced concrete beams, three of which were repaired by epoxy injection following initial damaging loadings, was conducted to support these objectives. Test variables included the loading protocol, the loading rate, and the level of restraint to axial elongation.The information that can be gleaned from post-earthquake damage surveys is investigated. It is shown that residual crack widths are dependent on residual deformations, and are not necessarily indicative of the maximum rotation demands or the plastic hinge residual capacity. The implications of various other types of damage typical of beam and column plastic hinges are also discussed.Experimental data are used to demonstrate that the strength and deformation capacity of plastic hinges with modern seismic detailing are often unreduced as a result of moderate earthquake induced damage, albeit with certain exceptions. Special attention is given to the effects of prior yielding of the longitudinal reinforcement, accounting for the low-cycle fatigue and strain ageing phenomena. A material-level testing program on the low-cycle fatigue behaviour of grade 300E reinforcing steel was conducted to supplement the data available in the literature.A reduction in stiffness, relative to the initial secant stiffness to yield, occurs due to moderate plastic hinging damage. This reduction in stiffness is shown to be correlated with the ductility demand,and a proposed model gives a conservative lower-bound estimate of the residual stiffness following an arbitrary earthquake-type loading. Repair by epoxy injection is shown to be effective in restoring the majority of stiffness to plastic hinges in beams. Epoxy injection is also shown to have implications for the residual strength and elongation characteristics of repaired plastic hinges.
