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Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Earthquakes are insured only with public sector involvement in high-income countries where the risk of earthquakes is perceived to be high. The proto-typical examples of this public sector involvement are the public earthquake insurance schemes in California, Japan, and New Zealand (NZ). Each of these insurance programs is structured differently, and the purpose of this paper is to examine these differences using a concrete case-study, the sequence of earthquakes that occurred in the Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2011. This event turned out to have been the most heavily insured earthquake event in history. We examine what would have been the outcome of the earthquakes had the system of insurance in NZ been different. In particular, we focus on the public earthquake insurance programs in California (the California Earthquake Authority - CEA), and in Japan (Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance - JER). Overall, the aggregate cost to the public insurer in NZ was $NZ 11.1 billion in its response to the earthquakes. If a similar-sized disaster event had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received $NZ 2.5 billion and $NZ 1.4 billion from the JER and CEA, respectively. We further describe the spatial and distributive patterns of these different scenarios.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Rick Wentz is a Chartered geotechnical engineer originally from Northern California who has lived in New Zealand since 2011 - coming here in response to the Christchurch earthquakes. Rick talks to Mark about seismic risk - what it means for the general community and the role of a geotechnical engineering in helping to manage it.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

The Canterbury earthquake sequence (2010-2011) was the most devastating catastrophe in New Zealand‘s modern history. Fortunately, in 2011 New Zealand had a high insurance penetration ratio, with more than 95% of residences being insured for these earthquakes. This dissertation sheds light on the functions of disaster insurance schemes and their role in economic recovery post-earthquakes.  The first chapter describes the demand and supply for earthquake insurance and provides insights about different public-private partnership earthquake insurance schemes around the world.  In the second chapter, we concentrate on three public earthquake insurance schemes in California, Japan, and New Zealand. The chapter examines what would have been the outcome had the system of insurance in Christchurch been different in the aftermath of the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES). We focus on the California Earthquake Authority insurance program, and the Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance scheme. Overall, the aggregate cost of the earthquake to the New Zealand public insurer (the Earthquake Commission) was USD 6.2 billion. If a similar-sized disaster event had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received only around USD 1.6 billion and USD 0.7 billion from the Japanese and Californian schemes, respectively. We further describe the spatial and distributive aspects of these scenarios and discuss some of the policy questions that emerge from this comparison.  The third chapter measures the longer-term effect of the CES on the local economy, using night-time light intensity measured from space, and focus on the role of insurance payments for damaged residential property during the local recovery process. Uniquely for this event, more than 95% of residential housing units were covered by insurance and almost all incurred some damage. However, insurance payments were staggered over 5 years, enabling us to identify their local impact. We find that night-time luminosity can capture the process of recovery; and that insurance payments contributed significantly to the process of local economic recovery after the earthquake. Yet, delayed payments were less affective in assisting recovery and cash settlement of claims were more effective than insurance-managed repairs.  After the Christchurch earthquakes, the government declared about 8000 houses as Red Zoned, prohibiting further developments in these properties, and offering the owners to buy them out. The government provided two options for owners: the first was full payment for both land and dwelling at the 2007 property evaluation, the second was payment for land, and the rest to be paid by the owner‘s insurance. Most people chose the second option. Using data from LINZ combined with data from Stats NZ, the fourth chapter empirically investigates what led people to choose this second option, and how peer effect influenced the homeowners‘ choices.  Due to climate change, public disclosure of coastal hazard information through maps and property reports have been used more frequently by local government. This is expected to raise awareness about disaster risks in local community and help potential property owners to make informed locational decision. However, media outlets and business sector argue that public hazard disclosure will cause a negative effect on property value. Despite this opposition, some district councils in New Zealand have attempted to implement improved disclosure. Kapiti Coast district in the Wellington region serves as a case study for this research. In the fifth chapter, we utilize the residential property sale data and coastal hazard maps from the local district council. This study employs a difference-in-difference hedonic property price approach to examine the effect of hazard disclosure on coastal property values. We also apply spatial hedonic regression methods, controlling for coastal amenities, as our robustness check. Our findings suggest that hazard designation has a statistically and economically insignificant impact on property values. Overall, the risk perception about coastal hazards should be more emphasized in communities.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

In order to provide information related to seismic vulnerability of non-ductile reinforced concrete (RC) frame buildings, and as a complementary investigation on innovative feasible retrofit solutions developed in the past six years at the University of Canterbury on pre-19170 reinforced concrete buildings, a frame building representative of older construction practice was tested on the shake table. The specimen, 1/2.5 scale, consists of two 3-storey 2-bay asymmetric frames in parallel, one interior and one exterior, jointed together by transverse beams and floor slabs. The as-built (benchmark) specimen was first tested under increasing ground motion amplitudes using records from Loma Prieta Earthquake (California, 1989) and suffered significant damage at the upper floor, most of it due to lap splices failure. As a consequence, in a second stage, the specimen was repaired and modified by removing the concrete in the lap splice region, welding the column longitudinal bars, replacing the removed concrete with structural mortar, and injecting cracks with epoxy resin. The modified as-built specimen was then tested using data recorded during Darfield (New Zealand, 2010) and Maule (Chile, 2010) Earthquakes, with whom the specimen showed remarkably different responses attributed to the main variation in frequency content and duration. In this contribution, the seismic performance of the three series of experiments are presented and compared.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Our poster will present on-going QuakeCoRE-founded work on strong motion seismology for Dunedin-Mosgiel area, focusing on ground motion simulations for Dunedin Central Business District (CBD). Source modelling and ground motion simulations are being carried out using the SCEC (Southern California Earthquakes Center) Broad Band simulation Platform (BBP). The platform computes broadband (0-10 Hz) seismograms for earthquakes and was first implemented at the University of Otago in 2016. As large earthquakes has not been experienced in Dunedin in the time of period of instrumental recording, user-specified scenario simulations are of great value. The Akatore Fault, the most active fault in Otago and closest major fault to Dunedin, is the source focused on in the present study. Simulations for various Akatore Fault source scenarios are run and presented. Path and site effects are key components considered in the simulation process. A 1D shear wave velocity profile is required by SCEC BBP, and this is being generated to represent the Akatore-to-CBD path and site within the BBP. A 3D shear velocity model, with high resolution within Dunedin CBD, is being developed in parallel with this study (see Sangster et al. poster). This model will be the basis for developing a 3D shear wave velocity model for greater Dunedin-Mosgiel area for future ground motion simulations, using Canterbury software (currently under development).

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This paper describes part of an extensive experimental programme in progress at the University of Canterbury to develop Laminated Veneer Lumber (LVL) structural systems and connections for multistorey timber buildings in earthquake-prone areas. The higher mechanical properties of LVL, when compared to sawn timber, in addition to its low mass, flexibility of design and rapidity of construction, create the potential for increased use of LVL in multi-storey buildings. The development of these innovative ductile connections in LVL, proposed here for frame systems, have been based on the successful implementation of jointed ductile connections for precast concrete systems, started in the early 1990s with the PRESSS Program at the University of California, San Diego, further developed in Italy and currently under further refinement at the University of Canterbury. This paper investigates the seismic behaviour of the so-called “hybrid” connection, characterised by the combination of unbonded post-tensioned tendons and either external or internal energy dissipaters passing through the critical contact surface between the structural elements. Experimental results on hybrid exterior beam-to-column and column-to-foundation subassemblies under cyclic quasi-static unidirectional loading are presented. The proposed innovative solutions exhibit a very satisfactory seismic performance characterised by an appreciable energy dissipation capacity (provided by the dissipaters) combined with self-centring properties (provided by the unbonded tendons) and negligible damage of the LVL structural elements.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The overarching goal of this dissertation is to improve predictive capabilities of geotechnical seismic site response analyses by incorporating additional salient physical phenomena that influence site effects. Specifically, multidimensional wave-propagation effects that are neglected in conventional 1D site response analyses are incorporated by: (1) combining results of 3D regional-scale simulations with 1D nonlinear wave-propagation site response analysis, and (2) modelling soil heterogeneity in 2D site response analyses using spatially-correlated random fields to perturb soil properties. A method to combine results from 3D hybrid physics-based ground motion simulations with site-specific nonlinear site response analyses was developed. The 3D simulations capture 3D ground motion phenomena on a regional scale, while the 1D nonlinear site response, which is informed by detailed site-specific soil characterization data, can capture site effects more rigorously. Simulations of 11 moderate-to-large earthquakes from the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) at 20 strong motion stations (SMS) were used to validate simulations with observed ground motions. The predictions were compared to those from an empirically-based ground motion model (GMM), and from 3D simulations with simplified VS30- based site effects modelling. By comparing all predictions to observations at seismic recording stations, it was found that the 3D physics-based simulations can predict ground motions with comparable bias and uncertainty as the GMM, albeit, with significantly lower bias at long periods. Additionally, the explicit modelling of nonlinear site-response improves predictions significantly compared to the simplified VS30-based approach for soft-soil or atypical sites that exhibit exceptionally strong site effects. A method to account for the spatial variability of soils and wave scattering in 2D site response analyses was developed and validated against a database of vertical array sites in California. The inputs required to run the 2D analyses are nominally the same as those required for 1D analyses (except for spatial correlation parameters), enabling easier adoption in practice. The first step was to create the platform and workflow, and to perform a sensitivity study involving 5,400 2D model realizations to investigate the influence of random field input parameters on wave scattering and site response. Boundary conditions were carefully assessed to understand their effect on the modelled response and select appropriate assumptions for use on a 2D model with lateral heterogeneities. Multiple ground-motion intensity measures (IMs) were analyzed to quantify the influence from random field input parameters and boundary conditions. It was found that this method is capable of scattering seismic waves and creating spatially-varying ground motions at the ground surface. The redistribution of ground-motion energy across wider frequency bands, and the scattering attenuation of high-frequency waves in 2D analyses, resemble features observed in empirical transfer functions (ETFs) computed in other studies. The developed 2D method was subsequently extended to more complicated multi-layer soil profiles and applied to a database of 21 vertical array sites in California to test its appropriate- ness for future predictions. Again, different boundary condition and input motion assumptions were explored to extend the method to the in-situ conditions of a vertical array (with a sensor embedded in the soil). ETFs were compared to theoretical transfer functions (TTFs) from conventional 1D analyses and 2D analyses with heterogeneity. Residuals of transfer-function- based IMs, and IMs of surface ground motions, were also used as validation metrics. The spatial variability of transfer-function-based IMs was estimated from 2D models and compared to the event-to-event variability from ETFs. This method was found capable of significantly improving predictions of median ETF amplification factors, especially for sites that display higher event-to-event variability. For sites that are well represented by 1D methods, the 2D approach can underpredict amplification factors at higher modes, suggesting that the level of heterogeneity may be over-represented by the 2D random field models used in this study.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Quick and reliable assessment of the condition of bridges in a transportation network after an earthquake can greatly assist immediate post-disaster response and long-term recovery. However, experience shows that available resources, such as qualified inspectors and engineers, will typically be stretched for such tasks. Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems can therefore make a real difference in this context. SHM, however, needs to be deployed in a strategic manner and integrated into the overall disaster response plans and actions to maximize its benefits. This study presents, in its first part, a framework of how this can be achieved. Since it will not be feasible, or indeed necessary, to use SHM on every bridge, it is necessary to prioritize bridges within individual networks for SHM deployment. A methodology for such prioritization based on structural and geotechnical seismic risks affecting bridges and their importance within a network is proposed in the second part. An example using the methodology application to selected bridges in the medium-sized transportation network of Wellington, New Zealand is provided. The third part of the paper is concerned with using monitoring data for quick assessment of bridge condition and damage after an earthquake. Depending on the bridge risk profile, it is envisaged that data will be obtained from either local or national seismic monitoring arrays or SHM systems installed on bridges. A method using artificial neural networks is proposed for using data from a seismic array to infer key ground motion parameters at an arbitrary bridges site. The methodology is applied to seismic data collected in Christchurch, New Zealand. Finally, how such ground motion parameters can be used in bridge damage and condition assessment is outlined. AM - Accepted manuscript

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This thesis is concerned with the effects of lateral confining reinforcement on the ductile behaviour of reinforced concrete columns. The contents of the chapters are summarized as follows. In Chapter one, the general problems in seismic design are discussed and earthquake design methods based on the ductile design approach are described. Japanese, New Zealand and United States design codes are compared. Finally, the scope of this research project is outlined. In Chapter two, after reviewing previous research on confined concrete, the factors which affect the effectiveness of lateral confinement are discussed. Especially the effects of the yield strength of transverse reinforcement, the compressive strength of plain concrete and the strain gradient in the column section due to bending are discussed based on tests which were conducted by the author et al at Kyoto University and Akashi Technological College, Japan. In the axial compression tests on spirally reinforced concrete cylinders (150 mm in diameter by 300 mm in height), the yield strength of transverse reinforcement and the compressive strength of plain concrete were varied from 161 MPa to 1352 MPa and from 17 MPa to 60 MPa, respectively, as experimental parameters. It is found that, when high strength spirals are used as confining reinforcement, the strength and ductility of the confined core concrete are remarkably enhanced but need to be estimated assuming several failure modes which could occur. These are based on the observations that concrete cylinders with high strength spirals suddenly failed at a concrete compressive strain of 2 to 3.5 % due to explosive crushing of the core concrete between the spiral bars or due to bearing failure of the core concrete immediately beneath the spiral bars, while the concrete cylinders with ordinary strength spirals failed in a gentle manner normally observed. In addition, eccentric loading tests were conducted on concrete columns with 200 mm square section confined by square spirals. It is found that the effectiveness of confining reinforcement is reduced by the presence of the strain gradient along the transverse section of column. In Chapter three, the effectiveness of transverse reinforcement with various types of anchorage details which simplify the fabrication of reinforcing cages are investigated. Eight reinforced concrete columns, with either 400 mm or 550 mm square cross sections, were tested subjected to axial compression loading and cyclic lateral loading which simulated a severe earthquake. The transverse reinforcement consisted of arrangements of square perimeter hoops with 135° end hooks, cross ties with 90° and 135° or 180° end hooks, and 'U' and 'J' shaped cross ties and perimeter hoops with tension splices. Conclusions are reached with regard to the effectiveness of the tested anchorage details in the plastic hinge regions of columns designed for earthquake resistance. In Chapter four, the effectiveness of interlocking spirals as transverse reinforcement is studied. Firstly, the general aspects and the related problems of interlocking spirals to provide adequate ductility in the potential plastic hinge region of columns are discussed, referring to the provisions in the New Zealand code,the CALTRANS (California Transportation Authority) code and other related codes. Secondly, based on those discussions, a design method to securely interlock the spirals is proposed. Thirdly, the effectiveness of interlocking spirals is assessed based on column tests conducted as part of this study. Three columns with interlocking spirals and, for comparison, one rectangular column with rectangular hoopsandcross ties, were tested under cyclic horizontal loading which simulated a severe earthquake. The sections of those columns were 400 mm by 600 mm. In Chapter five, analytical models to investigate the buckling behaviour of longitudinal reinforcement restrained by cross ties with 90° and 135° end hooks and by peripheral hoops are proposed. The analyzed results using the proposed models compare well with the experimental observations described in Chapter three. Using those proposed models, a method to check the effectiveness of cross ties with 90° and 135° end hooks is proposed for practical design purposes. In Chapter six, a theory for the prediction of the ultimate longitudinal compressive concrete strain at the stage of first hoop fracture referred to as the "Energy Balance Theory", which has been developed by Mander, Priestley and Park at University of Canterbury, is introduced. After discussing the problems in the "Energy Balance Theory", a modified theory for the prediction of the ultimate longitudinal compressive concrete strain at the stage of first hoop fracture is proposed. The predictions from the modified theory are found to compare well with previous experimental results.