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Research Papers, Lincoln University

This thesis investigates landscape disturbance history in Westland since 1350 AD. Specifically, I test the hypothesis that large-magnitude regional episodes of natural disturbance have periodically devastated portions of the landscape and forest, and that these were caused by infrequent earthquakes along the Alpine Fault. Forest stand history reconstruction was used to determine the timing and extent of erosion and sedimentation events that initiated new forest cohorts in a 1412 ha study area in the Karangarua River catchment, south Westland. Over 85 % of the study area was disturbed sufficiently by erosion/sedimentation since 1350 AD to initiate new forest cohorts. During this time four episodes of catchment-wide disturbance impacted the study area, and these took place about 1825 AD ± 5 years (Ruera episode), 1715 AD ± 5 years (Sparkling episode), 1615 AD ± 5 years (McTaggart episode), and 1445 AD ± 15 years (Junction episode). The three most recent episodes disturbed 10 %, 35-40 % and 32-50 % respectively of the study area. The Junction episode disturbed at least 6 % of the study area, but elimination of evidence by more recent disturbances prevented an upper limit being defined. The three earliest episodes correspond to the date-ranges for three Alpine Fault earthquakes from geological data, and are the only episodes of disturbance within each date-range. An earthquake cause is also consistent with features of the disturbance record: large portions of the study area were disturbed, disturbance occurred on all types 'of landforms, and terrace surfaces were abandoned upstream of the Alpine Fault. On this basis erosion/sedimentation induced by Alpine Fault earthquakes has disturbed 14-20 % of the land surface in the study area per century. Storms and other non-seismic erosional processes have disturbed 3-4 % per century. To examine the importance of the Alpine Fault earthquakes to forest disturbance throughout Westland, I collated all available data on conifer stand age structures in the region and identified dates of disturbance events from 55 even-aged cohorts of trees. Three region-wide episodes of forest disturbance since 1350 AD were found in this sample, and these matched the three Alpine Fault earthquake-caused episodes found in the Karangarua. Forest disturbance at these times was widespread across Westland over at least 200 km from Paringa to Hokitika, and originated from both tree fall and erosion processes. This disturbance history can explain the long-observed regional conifer forest pattern in Westland, of a predominance of similar-sized stands of trees and a relative lack of small-sized (young) stands. The many similar-sized stands are a consequence of synchronous forest disturbance and re-establishment accompanying the infrequent Alpine Fault earthquakes, while the dominance of mature stands of trees and relative lack of young small-sized trees in stands is explained by the long lapsed time since the last Alpine Fault earthquake (c. 280 years). I applied the landscape disturbance history information to the existing geological data to reconstruct the paleoseismicity of the Alpine Fault since 1350 AD. Best estimates for the timing of the most recent three rupture events from these data are 1715 AD ± 5 years, 1615 AD ± 5 years and 1445 AD ± 15 years. Earthquake recurrence intervals were variable, ranging from about 100 years to at least 280 years (the lapsed time since the last event). All three events caused forest and geomorphic disturbance over at least a 200 km section of Fault between the Karangarua and Hokitika Rivers, and were probably single rupture events. Suppressions in cross dated tree-ring chronologies in the western South Island suggest that the last rupture occurred in 1717 AD, and extended as a single rupture from Haupiri to Fiordland, a distance along the Fault of 375 km.

Articles, UC QuakeStudies

This report describes the earthquake hazard in Ashburton district and gives details of historic earthquakes. It includes district-scale (1:250,000) active fault, ground shaking zone, liquefaction and landslide susceptibility maps. The report describes earthquake scenarios for a magnitude 7.0-7.3 earthquake on the Mt Hutt-Mt Peel Fault Zone and a magnitude 8 Alpine Fault earthquake. See Object Overview for background and usage information.

Articles, UC QuakeStudies

This report describes the earthquake hazard in Selwyn district and gives details of historic earthquakes. It includes district-scale (1:250,000) active fault, ground shaking zone, liquefaction and landslide susceptibility maps. The report describes earthquake scenarios for a magnitude 7.0-7.3 earthquake on the Porters Pass-Amberley Fault Zone and a magnitude 8 Alpine Fault earthquake. See Object Overview for background and usage information.

Articles, UC QuakeStudies

This report describes the earthquake hazard in Timaru district and gives details of historic earthquakes. It includes district-scale (1:250,000) active fault, ground shaking zone, liquefaction and landslide susceptibility maps. The report describes earthquake scenarios for a magnitude 7.0-7.3 earthquake on the Mt Hutt-Mt Peel Fault Zone and a magnitude 8 Alpine Fault earthquake. See Object Overview for background and usage information.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Recent surface-rupturing earthquakes in New Zealand have highlighted significant exposure and vulnerability of the road network to fault displacement. Understanding fault displacement hazard and its impact on roads is crucial for mitigating risks and enhancing resilience. There is a need for regional-scale assessments of fault displacement to identify vulnerable areas within the road network for the purposes of planning and prioritising site-specific investigations. This thesis employs updated analysis of data from three historical surface-rupturing earthquakes (Edgecumbe 1987, Darfield 2010, and Kaikoūra 2016) to develop an empirical model that addresses the gap in regional fault displacement hazard analysis. The findings contribute to understanding of • How to use seismic hazard model inputs for regional fault displacement hazard analysis • How faulting type and sediment cover affects the magnitude and spatial distribution of fault displacement • How the distribution of displacement and regional fault displacement hazard is impacted by secondary faulting • The inherent uncertainties and limitations associated with employing an empirical approach at a regional scale • Which sections of New Zealand’s roading network are most susceptible to fault displacement hazard and warrant site-specific investigations • Which regions should prioritise updating emergency management plans to account for post-event disruptions to roading. I used displacement data from the aforementioned historical ruptures to generate displacement versus distance-to-fault curves for various displacement components, fault types, and geological characteristics. Using those relationships and established relationships for along-strike displacement, displacement contours were generated surrounding active faults within the NZ Community Fault Model. Next, I calculated a new measure of 1D strain along roads as well as relative hazard, which integrated 1D strain and normalised slip rate data. Summing these values at the regional level identified areas of heightened relative hazard across New Zealand, and permits an assessment of the susceptibility of road networks using geomorphon land classes as proxies for vulnerability. The results reveal that fault-parallel displacements tend to localise near the fault plane, while vertical and fault-perpendicular displacements sustain over extended distances. Notably, no significant disparities were observed in off-fault displacement between the hanging wall and footwall sides of the fault, or among different surface geology types, potentially attributed to dataset biases. The presence of secondary faulting in the dataset contributes to increased levels of tectonic displacement farther from the fault, highlighting its significance in hazard assessments. Furthermore, fault displacement contours delineate broader zones around dip-slip faults compared to strike-slip faults, with correlations identified between fault length and displacement width. Road ‘strain’ values are higher around dip-slip faults, with notable examples observed in the Westland and Buller Districts. As expected, relative hazard analysis revealed elevated values along faults with high slip rates, notably along the Alpine Fault. A regional-scale analysis of hazard and exposure reveals heightened relative hazard in specific regions, including Wellington, Southern Hawke’s Bay, Central Bay of Plenty, Central West Coast, inland Canterbury, and the Wairau Valley of Marlborough. Notably, the Central West Coast exhibits the highest summed relative hazard value, attributed to the fast-slipping Alpine Fault. The South Island generally experiences greater relative hazard due to larger and faster-slipping faults compared to the North Island, despite having fewer roads. Central regions of New Zealand face heightened risk compared to Southern or Northern regions. Critical road links intersecting high-slipping faults, such as State Highways 6, 73, 1, and 2, necessitate prioritisation for site-specific assessments, emergency management planning and targeted mitigation strategies. Roads intersecting with the Alpine Fault are prone to large parallel displacements, requiring post-quake repair efforts. Mitigation strategies include future road avoidance of nearby faults, modification of road fill and surface material, and acknowledgement of inherent risk, leading to prioritised repair efforts of critical roads post-quake. Implementing these strategies enhances emergency response efforts by improving accessibility to isolated regions following a major surface-rupturing event, facilitating faster supply delivery and evacuation assistance. This thesis contributes to the advancement of understanding fault displacement hazard by introducing a novel regional, empirical approach. The methods and findings highlight the importance of further developing such analyses and extending them to other critical infrastructure types exposed to fault displacement hazard in New Zealand. Enhancing our comprehension of the risks associated with fault displacement hazard offers valuable insights into various mitigation strategies for roading infrastructure and informs emergency response planning, thereby enhancing both national and global infrastructure resilience against geological hazards.

Articles, UC QuakeStudies

This report describes the earthquake hazard in Waimate and Mackenzie districts and the part of Waitaki district within Canterbury, and gives details of historic earthquakes. It includes district-scale (1:500,000) active fault, ground shaking zone, liquefaction and landslide susceptibility maps. The report describes earthquake scenarios for a magnitude 7.2-7.4 Ostler Fault earthquake near Twizel, a magnitude 8 Alpine Fault earthquake, and a magnitude 6.9 Hunters Hills Fault Zone earthquake near Waimate. See Object Overview for background and usage information.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

© 2017 The Royal Society of New Zealand. This paper discusses simulated ground motion intensity, and its underlying modelling assumptions, for great earthquakes on the Alpine Fault. The simulations utilise the latest understanding of wave propagation physics, kinematic earthquake rupture descriptions and the three-dimensional nature of the Earth's crust in the South Island of New Zealand. The effect of hypocentre location is explicitly examined, which is found to lead to significant differences in ground motion intensities (quantified in the form of peak ground velocity, PGV) over the northern half and southwest of the South Island. Comparison with previously adopted empirical ground motion models also illustrates that the simulations, which explicitly model rupture directivity and basin-generated surface waves, lead to notably larger PGV amplitudes than the empirical predictions in the northern half of the South Island and Canterbury. The simulations performed in this paper have been adopted, as one possible ground motion prediction, in the ‘Project AF8’ Civil Defence Emergency Management exercise scenario. The similarity of the modelled ground motion features with those observed in recent worldwide earthquakes as well as similar simulations in other regions, and the notably higher simulated amplitudes than those from empirical predictions, may warrant a re-examination of regional impact assessments for major Alpine Fault earthquakes.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Two huge wrestlers, one representing 'Port Hills fault' and the other 'Greendale fault' struggle together over a broken Christchurch. Another wrestler, representing 'Other faults' appears in the distance yelling 'Is it my turn yet?' Context - Christchurch has now had three major earthquakes and thousands of aftershocks. It now appears likely that the Christchurch quakes resulted from activity on a fault extending directly eastward from the Alpine fault that remained unknown until last year, says Roger Musson, a seismologist at the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh. The new fault first came to light last September (4th) when a stronger but less calamitous quake shook Darfield, 40 kilometres west of Christchurch. Musson says the latest quake (Feb 22, 2011) probably resulted from an eastward continuation of activity on the same fault. "It has probably not moved for tens of thousands of years, so lots of strain built up," says Musson. The third major quake happened on 13th June 2011. (New Scientist - February 22, 2011) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research Papers, Lincoln University

We examined the stratigraphy of alluvial fans formed at the steep range front of the Southern Alps at Te Taho, on the north bank of the Whataroa River in central West Coast, South Island, New Zealand. The range front coincides with the Alpine Fault, an Australian-Pacific plate boundary fault, which produces regular earthquakes. Our study of range front fans revealed aggradation at 100- to 300-year intervals. Radiocarbon ages and soil residence times (SRTs) estimated by a quantitative profile development index allowed us to elucidate the characteristics of four episodes of aggradation since 1000 CE. We postulate a repeating mode of fan behaviour (fan response cycle [FRC]) linked to earthquake cycles via earthquake-triggered landslides. FRCs are characterised by short response time (aggradation followed by incision) and a long phase when channels are entrenched and fan surfaces are stable (persistence time). Currently, the Te Taho and Whataroa River fans are in the latter phase. The four episodes of fan building we determined from an OxCal sequence model correlate to Alpine Fault earthquakes (or other subsidiary events) and support prior landscape evolution studies indicating ≥M7.5 earthquakes as the main driver of episodic sedimentation. Our findings are consistent with other historic non-earthquake events on the West Coast but indicate faster responses than other earthquake sites in New Zealand and elsewhere where rainfall and stream gradients (the basis for stream power) are lower. Judging from the thickness of fan deposits and the short response times, we conclude that pastoral farming (current land-use) on the fans and probably across much of the Whataroa River fan would be impossible for several decades after a major earthquake. The sustainability of regional tourism and agriculture is at risk, more so because of the vulnerability of the single through road in the region (State Highway 6).

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This paper develops representative ground motion ensembles for several major earthquake scenarios in New Zealand. Cases considered include representative ground motions for the occurrence of Alpine, Hope, and Porters Pass earthquakes in Christchurch, and the occurrence of Wellington, Wairarapa, and Ohariu, fault ruptures in Wellington. Challenges in the development of ground motion ensembles for subduction zone earthquakes are also highlighted. The ground motions are selected based on the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach, ensuring that the ground motion ensembles represent both the mean, and distribution of ground motion intensity which such scenarios could impose. These scenario-based ground motion sets can be used to complement ground motions which are often selected in conjunction with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, in order to understand the performance of structures for the question “what if this fault ruptures?”

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Mixed conifer, beech and hardwood forests are relatively common in Aotearoa/New Zealand, but are not well studied. This thesis investigates the coexistence, regeneration dynamics and disturbance history of a mixed species forest across an environmental gradient of drainage and soil development in north Westland. The aim was to investigate whether conifers, beech and non-beech hardwood species were able to coexist on surfaces that differed in their underlying edaphic conditions, and if so to understand the mechanisms that influenced their regeneration on both poorly drained and well drained soils. The site selected was an area of high tree species diversity on a lowland 0.8 km² post-glacial terrace at the base of Mount Harata in the Grey River Valley. My approach was to use forest stand history reconstruction at two spatial scales: an intensive within-plot study of stand dynamics (chapter 1) and a whole-landform approach (chapter 2) that examined whether the dynamics identified at the smaller within-plot scale reflected larger patterns across the terrace. In chapter 1, three large permanent plots (0.3-0.7 ha) were placed at different points along the drainage gradient, one plot situated in each of the mainly well-drained, poorly drained and very poorly drained areas along the terrace. Information was gathered on species age and size structures, spatial distributions of tree ages, species interactions, microsite establishment preferences, patterns of stand mortality, and disturbance history in each plot. There were differences in stand structure, composition and relative abundance of species found between the well drained plot and the two poorer drained plots. On the well drained site conifers were scarce, the beeches Nothofagus fusca and N. menziesii dominated the canopy, and in the subcanopy the hardwood species Weinmannia racemosa and Quintinia acutifolia were abundant. As drainage became progressively poorer, the conifers Dacrydium cupressinum and Dacrycarpus dacrydioides became more abundant and occupied the emergent tier over a beech canopy. The hardwoods W. racemosa and Q. acutifolia became gradually less abundant in the subcanopy, whereas the hardwood Elaeocarpus hookerianus became more so. In the well drained plot, gap partitioning for light between beeches and hardwoods enabled coexistence in response to a range of different sized openings resulting from disturbances of different extent. In the two more poorly drained plots, species also coexisted by partitioning microsite establishment sites according to drainage. There were several distinct periods where synchronous establishment of different species occurred in different plots, suggesting there were large disturbances: c. 100yrs, 190-200 yrs, 275-300 yrs and 375-425 yrs ago. Generally after the same disturbance, different species regenerated in different plots reflecting the underlying drainage gradient. However, at the same site after different disturbances, different sets of species regenerated, suggesting the type and extent of disturbances and the conditions left behind influenced species regeneration at some times but not others. The regeneration of some species (e.g., N. fusca in the well-drained plot, and Dacrydium in the poorer drained plots) was periodic and appeared to be closely linked to these events. In the intervals between these disturbances, less extensive disturbances resulted in the more frequent N. menziesii and especially hardwood regeneration. The type of tree death caused by different disturbances favoured different species, with dead standing tree death favouring the more shade-tolerant N. menziesii and hardwoods, whereas uprooting created a mosaic of microsite conditions and larger gap sizes that enabled Dacrycarpus, N. fusca and E. hookerianus to maintain themselves in the poorly drained areas. In chapter 2, 10 circular plots (c. 0.12 ha) were placed in well drained areas and 10 circular plots (c. 0.2 ha) in poorly drained plots to collect information on species population structures and microsite preferences. The aims were to reconstruct species' regeneration responses to a range of disturbances of different type and extent across the whole terrace, and to examine whether there were important differences in the effects of these disturbances. At this landform scale, the composition and relative abundances of species across the drainage gradient reflected those found in chapter 1. There were few scattered conifers in well drained areas, despite many potential regeneration opportunities created from a range of different stand destroying and smaller scale disturbances. Three of the four periods identified in chapter 1 reflected distinct terrace-wide periods of regeneration 75-100 yrs, 200-275 yrs and 350-450 yrs ago, providing strong evidence of periodic large, infrequent disturbances that occurred at intervals of 100-200 yrs. These large, infrequent disturbances have had a substantial influence in determining forest history, and have had long term effects on forest structure and successional processes. Different large, infrequent disturbances had different effects across the terrace, with the variability in conditions that resulted enabling different species to regenerate at different times. For example, the regeneration of distinct even-aged Dacrydium cohorts in poorly drained areas was linked to historical Alpine Fault earthquakes, but not to more recent storms. The variation in the intensity of different large, infrequent disturbances at different points along the environmental drainage gradient, was a key factor influencing the scale of impacts. In effect, the underlying edaphic conditions influenced species composition along the drainage gradient and disturbance history regulated the relative abundances of species. The results presented here further emphasise the importance of large scale disturbances as a mechanism that allows coexistence of different tree species in mixed forest, in particular for the conifers Dacrydium, Dacrycarpus and the beech N. fusca, by creating much of the environmental variation to which these species responded. This study adds to our understanding of the effects of historical earthquakes in the relatively complex forests of north Westland, and further illustrates their importance in the Westland forest landscape as the major influential disturbance on forest pattern and history. These results also further develop the 'two-component' model used to describe conifer/angiosperm dynamics, by identifying qualitative differences in the impacts of different large, infrequent disturbances across an environmental gradient that allowed for coexistence of different species. In poorer drained areas, these forests may even be thought of as 'three-component' systems with conifers, beeches and hardwoods exhibiting key differences in their regeneration patterns after disturbances of different type and extent, and in their microsite preferences.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Acheron rock avalanche is located in the Red Hill valley almost 80 km west of Christchurch and is one of 42 greywacke-derived rock avalanches identified in the central Southern Alps. It overlies the Holocene active Porters Pass Fault; a component of the Porters Pass-Amberley Fault Zone which extends from the Rakaia River to beyond the Waimakariri River. The Porters Pass Fault is a dextral strike-slip fault system viewed as a series of discontinuous fault scarps. The location of the fault trace beneath the deposit suggests it may represent a possible source of seismic shaking resulting in the formation of the Acheron rock avalanche. The rock mass composition of the rock avalanche source scar is Torlesse Supergroup greywacke consisting of massive sandstone and thinly bedded mudstone sequences dipping steeply north into the centre of the source basin. A stability analysis identified potential instability along shallow north dipping planar defects, and steep south dipping toppling failure planes. The interaction of the defects with bedding is considered to have formed conditions for potential instability most likely triggered by a seismic event. The dTositional area of the rock avalanche covers 7.2 x 105 m2 with an estimated volume of 9 x 10 m3 The mobilised rock mass volume was calculated at 7.5 x 106 m3• Run out of the debris from the top of the source scar to the distal limit reached 3500m, descending over a vertical fall of almost 700m with an estimated Fahrboschung of 0.2. The run out of the rock avalanche displayed moderate to high mobility, travelling at an estimated maximum velocity of 140-160 km/hour. The rapid emplacement of the deposit is confirmed by highly fragmented internal composition and burial of forest vegetation New radiocarbon ages from buried wood retrieved from the base of Acheron rock avalanche deposit represents an emplacement age closely post-dating (Wk 12094) 1152 ± 51 years B.P. This differs significantly from a previous radiocarbon age of (NZ547) 500 ± 69 years B.P. and modal lichenometry and weathering-rind thickness ages of approximately 460 ± 10 yrs and 490 ± 50 years B.P. The new age shows no resemblance to an earthquake event around 700- 500 years B.P. on the Porters Pass-Amberley Fault Zone. The DAN run out simulation using a friction model rheology successfully replicated the long run out and velocity of the Acheron rock avalanche using a frictron angle of 27° and high earth pressure coefficients of 5.5, 5.2, and 5.9. The elevated earth pressure coefficients represent dispersive pressures derived from dynamic fragmentation of the debris within the mobile rock avalanche, supporting the hypothesis of Davies and McSaveney (2002). The DAN model has potential applications for areas prone to large-scale instability in the elevated slopes and steep waterways of the Southern Alps. A paleoseismic investigation of a newly identified scarp of the Porters Pass Fault partially buried by the rock avalanche was conducted to identify any evidence of a coseismic relationship to the Acheron rock avalanche. This identified three-four fault traces striking at 078°, and a sag pond displaying a sequence of overbank deposits containing two buried soils representing an earthquake event horizon. A 40cm vertical offset of the ponded sediment and lower buried soil horizqn was recorded, which was dated to (Wk 13112 charcoal in palosol) 653 ± 54 years B.P. and (Wk 13034 palosol) 661 ± 34 years B.P. The evidence indicates a fault rupture occurred along the Porters Pass Fault, west of Porters Pass most likely extending to the Red Lakes terraces, post-dating 700 years B.P., resulting in 40cm of vertical displacement and an unknown component of dextral strike slip movement. This event post­ dates the event one (1000 ± 100 years B.P) at Porters Pass previously considered to represent the most recent rupture along the fault line. This points to a probable source for resetting of the modal weathering-rind thicknesses and lichen size populations in the Red Hill valley and possibly the Red Lakes terraces. These results suggest careful consideration must be given to the geomorphic and paleoseismic history of a specific site when applying surface dating techniques and furthermore the origin of dates used in literature and their useful range should be verified. An event at 700-500 years B.P did not trigger the Acheron rock avalanche as previously assumed supporting Howard's conclusions. The lack of similar aged rupture evidence in either of the Porters Pass and Coleridge trenches supports Howard's hypothesis of segmentation of the Porters Pass Fault; where rupture occurs along one fault segment but not along another. The new rock avalanche age closely post-dating 1200-1100 years B.P. resembles the poorly constrained event one rupture age of 1700-800 years B.P for the Porters Pass Fault and the tighter constrained Round Top event of 1010 ± 50 years B.P. on the Alpine Fault. Eight other rock avalanche deposits spread across the central Southern Alps also resemble the new ages however are unable to be assigned specific earthquake events due to the large associated error bars of± 270 years. This clustering of ages does represent compelling lines of evidence for large magnitude earthquake events occurring over the central Southern Alps. The presence of a rock avalanche deposit does not signify an earthquake based on the historical evidence in the Southern Alps however clustering of ages does suggest that large Mw >7 earthquakes occurred across the Southern Alps between 1200-900 years BP.

Articles, UC QuakeStudies

This study analysed liquefaction susceptibility and estimated ground settlements for two earthquake scenarios (foothills and Alpine Fault) for eastern Waimakariri District. The report was later partially superseded by Earthquake hazard assessment for Waimakariri District (Yetton and McCahon, 2009), which while not using such detailed analytical methods as the 2000 Beca report, reviewed new information available since 2000 (including that collected as part of the Pegasus Town development). This showed that the liquefaction susceptibility in eastern Waimakariri district was in fact much more variable than suggested in the 2000 Beca maps, and that liquefaction susceptibility was extremely difficult to predict without a site-specific investigation. See Object Overview for background and usage information.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Liquefaction features and the geologic environment in which they formed were carefully studied at two sites near Lincoln in southwest Christchurch. We undertook geomorphic mapping, excavated trenches, and obtained hand cores in areas with surficial evidence for liquefaction and areas where no surficial evidence for liquefaction was present at two sites (Hardwick and Marchand). The liquefaction features identified include (1) sand blows (singular and aligned along linear fissures), (2) blisters or injections of subhorizontal dikes into the topsoil, (3) dikes related to the blows and blisters, and (4) a collapse structure. The spatial distribution of these surface liquefaction features correlates strongly with the ridges of scroll bars in meander settings. In addition, we discovered paleoliquefaction features, including several dikes and a sand blow, in excavations at the sites of modern liquefaction. The paleoliquefaction event at the Hardwick site is dated at A.D. 908-1336, and the one at the Marchand site is dated at A.D. 1017-1840 (95% confidence intervals of probability density functions obtained by Bayesian analysis). If both events are the same, given proximity of the sites, the time of the event is A.D. 1019-1337. If they are not, the one at the Marchand site could have been much younger. Taking into account a preliminary liquefaction-triggering threshold of equivalent peak ground acceleration for an Mw 7.5 event (PGA7:5) of 0:07g, existing magnitude-bounded relations for paleoliquefaction, and the timing of the paleoearthquakes and the potential PGA7:5 estimated for regional faults, we propose that the Porters Pass fault, Alpine fault, or the subduction zone faults are the most likely sources that could have triggered liquefaction at the study sites. There are other nearby regional faults that may have been the source, but there is no paleoseismic data with which to make the temporal link.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This paper provides a summary of the ground motions observed in the recent Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence. The sequence occurred in a region of relatively moderate seismicity, 130km to the east of the Alpine Fault, the major plate-boundary in the region. From an engineering perspective, the sequence has been primarily comprised of the initial 04/09/2010 Darfield earthquake (Mw7.1) followed by the 22/02/2011 Christchurch earthquake (Mw6.3), and two aftershocks on 13/06/ 2011 (Mw5.3 and 6.0, respectively). The dense spacing of strong motions in the region, and their close proximity to the respective causative faults, has resulted in strong ground motions far exceeding the previous catalogue of strong motion observed in New Zealand. The observed ground motions have exhibited clear evidence of: (i) near-source directivity; (ii) sedimentary basin focusing, amplification and basin effect refraction; (iii) non-linear site response; (iv) cyclic mobility postliquefaction; and (v) extreme vertical ground motions exceeding 2g, among others.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) method is extended to ground motion selection for scenario ruptures. Using different rupture scenarios and site conditions, various aspects of the GCIM methodology are scrutinized, including: (i) implementation of different weight vectors and the composition of the IM vector; (ii) quantifying the importance of replicate selections for different number of desired ground motions; and (iii) the effect of considering bounds on the implicit causal parameters of the prospective ground motions. Using the extended methodology, representative ground motion ensembles for several major earthquake scenarios in New Zealand are developed. Cases considered include representative ground motions for the occurrence of Alpine, Hope, and Porters Pass earthquakes in Christchurch city, and the occurrence of Wellington, Wairarapa, and Ohariu fault ruptures in Wellington city. Challenges in the development of ground motion ensembles for subduction zone earthquakes are also highlighted. The selected scenario-based ground motion sets can be used to complement ground motions which are often selected in conjunction with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, in order to understand the performance of structures for the question “what if this fault ruptures?”