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Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We estimate the causal effects of a large unanticipated natural disaster on high schoolers’ university enrolment decisions and subsequent medium-term labour market outcomes. Using national administrative data after a destructive earthquake in New Zealand, we estimate that the disaster raises tertiary education enrolment of recent high school graduates by 6.1 percentage points. The effects are most pronounced for males, students who are academically weak relative to their peers, and students from schools directly damaged by the disaster. As relatively low ability males are overrepresented in sectors of the labour market helped by the earthquake, greater demand for university may stem from permanent changes in deeper behavioural parameters such as risk aversion or time preference, rather than as a coping response to poor economic opportunities.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Depicts huge elderly woman with 'CERA' on her dress scolding smaller adult dressed as schoolboy near bustop with sign 'CBD red zone tours' Text reads 'And don't talk to strangers and don't cross the road and remember to eat your lunch..' Context: After the 22 Feburary 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, the central business district (CBD) was marked as a red zone. Red zone areas were deemed unsuitable for habitation due to significant damage and at high risk of further damage from low levels of earth shaking. CERA (Christchurch Earthquake Recovery Authority) ran public bus tours of the Christchurch CBD from November to December 2011. For safety reasons the public was not allowed off the buses as it was a dangerous and active demolition site. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).