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Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

his poster presents the ongoing development of a 3D Canterbury seismic velocity model which will be used in physics-based hybrid broadband ground motion simulation of the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Velocity models must sufficiently represent critical aspects of the crustal structure over multiple length scales which will influence the results of the simulations. As a result, numerous sources of data are utilized in order to provide adequate resolution where necessary. Figure 2: (a) Seismic reflection line showing P-wave velocities and significant geologic horizons (Barnes et al. 2011), and (b) Shear wave profiles at 10 locations (Stokoe et al. 2013). Figure 4: Cross sections of the current version of the Canterbury velocity model to depths of 10km as shown in Figure 1: (a) at a constant latitude value of -43.6˚, and (b) at a constant longitude value of 172.64˚. 3. Ground Surface and Geologic Horizon Models Figure 3: (a) Ground surface model derived from numerous available digital elevation models, and (b) Base of the Quaternary sediments derived from structural contours and seismic reflection line elevations. The Canterbury region has a unique and complex geology which likely has a significant impact on strong ground motions, in particular the deep and loose deposits of the Canterbury basin. The Canterbury basin has several implications on seismic wave phenomena such as long period ground motion amplification and wave guide effects. Using a realistic 3D seismic velocity model in physics-based ground motion simulation will implicitly account for such effects and the resultant simulated ground motions can be studied to gain a fundamental understanding of the salient ground motion phenomena which occurred during the Canterbury earthquakes, and the potential for repeat occurrences in the Canterbury region. Figure 1 shows the current model domain as a rectangular area between Lat=[-43.2˚,-44.0˚], and Lon=[171.5˚,173.0˚]. This essentially spans the area between the foot of the Southern Alps in the North West to Banks Peninsula in the East. Currently the model extends to a depth of 50km below sea level.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The title reads 'Shipping container shopping for Merivale?.. The cartoon shows a row of shops that have been created from containers. An oil slick seeps from one of them. Someone in 'Chez Merivale' says 'Nice idea darling. But did they have to use the Rena's containers?' Context: Refers to the container ship 'Rena' which is grounded on the Astrolabe Reef off the Bay of Plenty and threatens to become a disaster of huge proportions as oil spews into the sea. Modified shipping containers have been put in place in the suburb of Merivale to replace broken shops. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of an address by Mike Greer, Director of Mike Greer Homes Ltd, at the 2014 Seismics and the City forum. This talk was part of the Building Opportunities section, and focused on the housing needs and the residential building opportunities in the inner city, Greater Christchurch, and the Canterbury region.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The letters 'CHCH' are built from broken masonry and stand amongst the chaos of broken buildings. It is the usual acronym for the city of Christchurch; here however it stands for 'catastrophe', 'havoc', 'care', 'help'. Context - on 22 February 2011 a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck in Christchurch, which has probably killed more than 200 people (at this point the number is still not known) and caused very severe damage. The courage, generosity and 'can do' attitude of the people of Christchurch has been wonderful but the whole country and is contributing to the effort to get Christchurch back on its feet as well as aid from overseas. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

In the top panel a kiwi reads the newspaper which has headlines reading 'Milk prices', 'BMW limos', 'Dodgy politicians', and 'Foreign despot news' and says 'Let's get this all in perspective'. In the lower panel the kiwi walks among the ruins and the graves of Christchurch and thinks 'Christchurch and Canterbury need our attention and care!!' Context - The very severe Christchurch earthquake of 22 February 2011 in which probably more than 200 people died and an enormous amount of structural damage has been done. The headlines refer to Fonterra putting a freeze on the price of milk, the government buying expensive limos (both of these making headlines because of the state of the economy) and lastly the 'foreign despot' is Gaddafi in Libya. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Someone holds a bucket with 'Christchurch' printed on it for collecting donations. Context - People need assistance after the devastating earthquake of the 22nd February. On 22 February 2011 at 12:51 pm (NZDT), Christchurch experienced a major magnitude 6.3 earthquake, which resulted in severe damage and many casualties. A National State of Emergency has been declared. This followed on from an original magnitude 7.1 earthquake on 4 September 2010 which did far less damage and in which no-one died. Both colour and black and white versions of this cartoon are available Quantity: 2 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Shows the face of a man with a large tear rolling down his cheek ; in the tear is the word 'Christchurch'. Context - On 22 February 2011 at 12:51 pm (NZDT), Christchurch experienced a major magnitude 6.3 earthquake, which resulted in severe damage and many casualties. A National State of Emergency has been declared. This followed on from an original magnitude 7.1 earthquake on 4 September 2010 which did far less damage and in which no-one died. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text reads 'The earth takes... the world gives'. The cartoon shows an image of the globe with New Zealand in the centre - the continents seem to have formed themselves into a grieving face and arms which reach out to New Zealand. Context - on 22 February 2011 a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck in Christchurch which has probably killed more than 200 people (at this point the number is still not known) and caused very severe damage. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Ruamoko, the Earthquake God, stirs in his bed, and with a sudden yawn, wonders if it is time to awake again. Above him Christchurch City trembles. On 15 May 2012, after several months of comparatively small quakes, a 4.5 Richter Scale earthquake was registered only 10 km East of Christchurch. Quake-weary Christchurch citizens feared that another large earthquake was on its way. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Scene set at Santa Claus' 'Online Christmas Orders Dept' at the North Pole. One elf remarks 'ANOTHER Marmite order from New Zealand'. The sole Marmite factory in New Zealand was damaged in the Christchurch Earthquake of 2011. Further aftershocks led to the shutting down of the factory until late 2012. The remaining stocks ran out, leading to panic buying at inflated prices by Marmite aficionados. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The cartoon shows the mayor of Christchurch, Bob Parker being targeted by someone with a gun. He is told that this lesson one of relationship counselling. Context: The Christchurch City Council has been having severe relationship problems which has resulted in a demonstration of 4000 people demanding that the council step aside and that new elections be called. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text reads 'Latest Christchurch East band' The name of the band is 'The Silty Stones' and the band sings 'We can't get no... sa-tis-faction! 'Cos we got more li-qui-faction! And we cry, and we cry, and we try to get by We can't get no sa-tis-faction!' The band are cleaning up the latest liquefaction from around a house and are using their tools as musical instruments. Context: there was a 4.9 magnitude aftershock in Canterbury on December 26th (Boxing Day 2011) The song is a take-off of the 'Rolling Stones' song 'We can't get no satisfaction'. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The cartoon shows the word 'Christchurch' with 'church' crossed out and replaced with 'mess'. A second version has the word 'scary' added. A third version has the word 'church' replaced by 'mas'. A fourth version has the words 'early' and 'presence' included and 'church' is replaced by 'mess'. Context: concern about continuing trials and tribulations of Christchurch with unremitting earthquakes and aftershocks. Four versions of this cartoon are available Quantity: 4 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The title is 'Cardboard cathedral proposed...' The cartoon shows the Christchurch Cathedral completed with cardboard boxes and a spire made of used toilet rolls. A puppy is in the process of unwinding toilet paper from the last roll. On an earlier part of the roof stand cardboard cutouts of the Christchurch wizard and maybe the mayor, Bob Parker. Context: A design for a temporary cathedral has been outlined by renowned Japanese architect Shigeru Ban. The proposed $4 million temporary replacement for Christchurch's destroyed cathedral made of shipping containers and cardboard has been met with scepticism from residents of the quake-hit city who wonder whether another church is really what the city needs right now. (3 News 1 August 2011) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The cartoon shows Gerry Brownlee, the Minister for Earthquake Recovery, walking towards a spa wearing swimming togs and with a blow-up toy around his waist. Context: The cartoon illustrated an article entitled 'Sutton candid about struggles'. Cera boss Roger Sutton received politicians in the empty Centennial Park spa pool after the February earthquake when he was still head of lines company Orion. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The cartoon shows Christchurch obscured by ash. Text reads 'Christchurch recovery package' and below are the words 'Cash cloud'. Context - Beginning on the 6th of June the Puyehue-Cordon Caulle volcano has been erupting for more than a week. Drifting ash clouds have been interupting flights. On Thursday 23 June Prime Minister John Key, Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee and representatives from engineering consultants Tonkin & Taylor announced the first part of the Government's long-awaited land report that revealed the fate of up to 5000 quake-damaged homes. These homes were in the 'red zone'. But 10,500 owners in the orange zone were left in limbo, with their properties requiring further assessment. One of the options presented to residents in the red zone, ideal for people with replacement policies, was the government bought your land, and you dealt directly with your insurers about your house. However they got a shock when insurers told them they won't replace their homes, they'll only repair them, even though they're earmarked for certain demolition. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

A rat in a business suit representing 'insurance companies' carries a briefcase labelled 'Total replacement policies' and follows a fellow rat into a large hole 'loop holes' that leads into a collapsed building. The rat says 'Woo-hoo! Home sweet home!' Context - Problems for people whose houses were damaged in the Christchurch earthquakes. One of the options presented to residents in the red zone, ideal for people with replacement policies, was the government bought your land, and you dealt directly with your insurers about your house. However they got a shock when insurers told them they won't replace their homes, they'll only repair them, even though they're earmarked for certain demolition. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text reads 'The earth moved...... and so did the government's infrastructure spending estimate'. Centre cartoon is the text '$17 billion' set against the backdrop of a seismic graph. Context - Auckland and Christchurch have been given top priority in the Government's latest national infrastructure plan, with more than seven billion dollars of its $17 billion budget going to the two cities. NZ Council for Infrastructure chief executive Stephen Selwood says hes not surprised at the large amount of funding going to Auckland and Christchurch, saying its clear the Christchurch rebuild will require a major commitment and Aucklands continued growth also requires significant funding. (Source: www.3news.co.nz, 5 July 2011) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

A zone of active tectonism occurs in mid and north Canterbury, from the Rakaia to the Waipara Rivers, which coincides with seismicity concentrations and several Quaternary surface anomalies and is here defined as the Porters Pass Tectonic Zone. Although parallel to the Marlborough faults to the north, the lack of regional definition suggests this zone is much younger in its inception reflecting a southward movement of the plate rotation vector. The objectives of this study were to map the structures associated with this zone in the segment between the Rakaia and Waimakariri Rivers with detailed analysis concentrated in the upper Kawai Valley. Quaternary offsets on the main lineament of the Porters Pass Fault were traced through the area and evidence for the rate of movement, probable magnitudes and return periods of related seismic events was sought. The basement was found to be complicated by pre-existing deformation structures in Torlesse Group rocks which have been subsequently been re-activated or rotated by recent fault movement probably beginning in the Pleistocene. This phase is dominantly thrusting and uplift has lead to the erosion of most of the overlying sedimentary cover. Remnants of the Cret-Tertiary sediments still remain as fault-bounded packets. Evidence suggests that a change to development of a regional lateral shear associated with the Porters Pass Tectonic Zone transects the thrust system with complex interaction between the older reverse and new strike-slip faults. Offset rates along the segments of the Porters Pass Fault are not well constrained but are believed to be approximately in the range of 11-13 mm/year for at least the last 130,000 years. This rate is similar to other large faults in the Marlborough region. Two earthquake events have been identified and dated at 600 and 2000 years ago, with a magnitude of greater than 6.5. Evidence suggests characteristic earthquakes along the Porters Pass Fault are greater than Magnitude 7. This result has some major ramifications for the expected seismic hazards for nearby Christchurch.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The initial goal of this research was to explore how SME business models change in response to a crisis. Keeping this in mind, the business model canvas (Osterwalder & Pigneur, 2010) was used as a tool to analyse SME business models in the Canterbury region of New Zealand. The purpose was to evaluate the changes SMEs instituted in their business models after being hit by a series of earthquakes in 2010 and 2011. The idea was to conduct interviews with business owners and analyse them using grounded theory methods. As this method is iterative and requires simultaneous data collection and analysis, a tentative model was proposed after first phase of the data collection and analysis. However, as a result of this process, it became apparent that owner-specific characteristics, action orientation and networks were more prominent in the data than business model elements. Although the SMEs in this study experienced several operational changes in their business models, such as a change of location, modifications to their payment terms or expanded/restricted target markets, the suggested framework highlights how owner-specific attributes ensured the recovery of their businesses. After the initial framework was suggested, subsequent interviews were conducted to test, verify, and modify the tentative model. Three aspects of business recovery emerged: (a) cognitive coping – the business owner’s mind-set and motive; (b) adaptive coping – the ability of business owner to take corrective actions; and (c) social capital – the social network of a business owner, including formal and informal connections and their significance. Three distinct groups were identified; self-sufficient SMEs, socially-based SMEs and surviving SMEs. This thesis proposes a grounded theory of business recovery for SMEs following a disaster. Cognitive coping and social capital enabled the owners to take actions, which eventually led to the desired outcomes for the businesses.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text across the top of the cartoon reads 'Mayor in Nepal' Christchurch Mayor Bob Parker climbs a snowy slope towards 'Mt Junket'; he is followed by sherpas carrying candles, dining table and wine glasses. Bob Parker says 'I am focused on the summit and they don't get much bigger than this!' Context - Bob Parker gave the keynote address at a United Nations-sanctioned symposium in Nepal on disaster-risk reduction. The UN and the United States Government paid Parker's costs. The disaster risk symposium featured speakers from Pakistan and Haiti - two countries struck by large earthquakes.(The Press 15 February 2011) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Surface rupture and slip from the Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake have been mapped in the region between the Leader and Charwell rivers using field mapping and LiDAR data. The eastern Humps, north Leader and Conway-Charwell faults ruptured the ground surface in the study area. The E-NE striking ‘The Humps’ Fault runs along the base of the Mt Stewart range front, appears to dip steeply NW and intersects the NNW-NNE Leader Fault which itself terminates northwards at the NE striking Conway-Charwell Fault. The eastern Humps Fault is up to the NW and accommodates oblique slip with reverse and right lateral displacement. Net slip on ‘The Humps’ Fault is ≤4 m and produced ≤4 m uplift of the Mt Stewart range during the earthquake. The Leader Fault strikes NNW-NNE with dips ranging from ~10° west to 80° east and accommodated ≤4 m net slip comprising left-lateral and up-to-the-west vertical displacement. Like the Humps west of the study area, surface-rupture of the Leader Fault occurred on multiple strands. The complexity of rupture on the Leader Fault is in part due to the occurrence of bedding-parallel slip within the Cretaceous-Cenozoic sequence. Although the Mt Stewart range front is bounded by ‘The Humps’ Fault, in the study area neither this fault nor the Leader Fault were known to have been active before the earthquake. Fieldwork and trenching investigations are ongoing to characterise the geometry, kinematics and paleoseismic history of the mapped active faults.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading in large seismic events often results in pervasive and costly damage to engineering structures and lifelines, making it a critical component of engineering design. However, the complex nature of this phenomenon leads to designing for such a hazard extremely challenging and there is a clear for an improved understanding and predicting liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. The 2010-2011 Canterbury (New Zealand) Earthquakes triggered severe liquefaction-induced lateral spreading along the streams and rivers of the Christchurch region, causing extensive damage to roads, bridges, lifelines, and structures in the vicinity. The unfortunate devastation induced from lateral spreading in these events also rendered the rare opportunity to gain an improved understanding of lateral spreading displacements specific to the Christchurch region. As part of this thesis, the method of ground surveying was employed following the 4 September 2010 Darfield (Mw 7.1) and 22 February 2011 Christchurch (Mw 6.2) earthquakes at 126 locations (19 repeated) throughout Christchurch and surrounding suburbs. The method involved measurements and then summation of crack widths along a specific alignment (transect) running approximately perpendicular to the waterway to indicate typically a maximum lateral displacement at the bank and reduction of the magnitude of displacements with distance from the river. Rigorous data processing and comparisons with alternative measurements of lateral spreading were performed to verify results from field observations and validate the method of ground surveying employed, as well as highlight the complex nature of lateral spreading displacements. The welldocumented field data was scrutinized to gain an understanding of typical magnitudes and distribution patterns (distribution of displacement with distance) of lateral spreading observed in the Christchurch area. Maximum displacements ranging from less than 10 cm to over 3.5 m were encountered at the sites surveyed and the area affected by spreading ranged from less than 20 m to over 200 m from the river. Despite the highly non-uniform displacements, four characteristic distribution patterns including large, distributed ground displacements, block-type movements, large and localized ground displacements, and areas of little to no displacements were identified. Available geotechnical, seismic, and topographic data were collated at the ground surveying sites for subsequent analysis of field measurements. Two widely-used empirical models (Zhang et al. (2004), Youd et al. (2002)) were scrutinized and applied to locations in the vicinity of field measurements for comparison with model predictions. The results indicated generally poor correlation (outside a factor of two) with empirical predictions at most locations and further validated the need for an improved, analysis- based method of predicting lateral displacements that considers the many factors involved on a site-specific basis. In addition, the development of appropriate model input parameters for the Youd et al. (2002) model led to a site-specific correlation of soil behavior type index, Ic, and fines content, FC, for sites along the Avon River in Christchurch that matched up well with existing Ic – FC relationships commonly used in current practice. Lastly, a rigorous analysis was performed for 25 selected locations of ground surveying measurements along the Avon River where ground slope conditions are mild (-1 to 2%) and channel heights range from about 2 – 4.5 m. The field data was divided into categories based on the observed distribution pattern of ground displacements including: large and distributed, moderate and distributed, small to negligible, and large and localized. A systematic approach was applied to determine potential critical layers contributing to the observed displacement patterns which led to the development of characteristic profiles for each category considered. The results of these analyses outline an alternative approach to the evaluation of lateral spreading in which a detailed geotechnical analysis is used to identify the potential for large spreading displacements and likely spatial distribution patterns of spreading. Key factors affecting the observed magnitude and distribution of spreading included the thickness of the critical layer, relative density, soil type and layer continuity. It was found that the large and distributed ground displacements were associated with a thick (1.5 – 2.5 m) deposit of loose, fine to silty sand (qc1 ~4-7 MPa, Ic 1.9-2.1, qc1n_cs ~50-70) that was continuous along the bank and with distance from the river. In contrast, small to negligible displacements were characterized by an absence of or relatively thin (< 1 m), discontinuous critical layer. Characteristic features of the moderate and distributed displacements were found to be somewhere between these two extremes. The localized and large displacements showed a characteristic critical layer similar to that observed in the large and distributed sites but that was not continuous and hence leading to the localized zone of displacement. The findings presented in this thesis illustrate the highly complex nature of lateral displacements that cannot be captured in simplified models but require a robust geotechnical analysis similar to that performed for this research.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

In September 2010 and February 2011, the Canterbury region experienced devastating earthquakes with an estimated economic cost of over NZ$40 billion (Parker and Steenkamp, 2012; Timar et al., 2014; Potter et al., 2015). The insurance market played an important role in rebuilding the Canterbury region after the earthquakes. Homeowners, insurance and reinsurance markets and New Zealand government agencies faced a difficult task to manage the rebuild process. From an empirical and theoretic research viewpoint, the Christchurch disaster calls for an assessment of how the insurance market deals with such disasters in the future. Previous studies have investigated market responses to losses in global catastrophes by focusing on the insurance supply-side. This study investigates both demand-side and supply-side insurance market responses to the Christchurch earthquakes. Despite the fact that New Zealand is prone to seismic activities, there are scant previous studies in the area of earthquake insurance. This study does offer a unique opportunity to examine and document the New Zealand insurance market response to catastrophe risk, providing results critical for understanding market responses after major loss events in general. A review of previous studies shows higher premiums suppress demand, but how higher premiums and a higher probability of risk affect demand is still largely unknown. According to previous studies, the supply of disaster coverage is curtailed unless the market is subsidised, however, there is still unsettled discussion on why demand decreases with time from the previous disaster even when the supply of coverage is subsidised by the government. Natural disaster risks pose a set of challenges for insurance market players because of substantial ambiguity associated with the probability of such events occurring and high spatial correlation of catastrophe losses. Private insurance market inefficiencies due to high premiums and spatially concentrated risks calls for government intervention in the provision of natural disaster insurance to avert situations of noninsurance and underinsurance. Political economy considerations make it more likely for government support to be called for if many people are uninsured than if few people are uninsured. However, emergency assistance for property owners after catastrophe events can encourage most property owners to not buy insurance against natural disaster and develop adverse selection behaviour, generating larger future risks for homeowners and governments. On the demand-side, this study has developed an intertemporal model to examine how demand for insurance changes post-catastrophe, and how to model it theoretically. In this intertemporal model, insurance can be sought in two sequential periods of time, and at the second period, it is known whether or not a loss event happened in period one. The results show that period one demand for insurance increases relative to the standard single period model when the second period is taken into consideration, period two insurance demand is higher post-loss, higher than both the period one demand and the period two demand without a period one loss. To investigate policyholders experience from the demand-side perspective, a total of 1600 survey questionnaires were administered, and responses from 254 participants received representing a 16 percent response rate. Survey data was gathered from four institutions in Canterbury and is probably not representative of the entire population. The results of the survey show that the change from full replacement value policy to nominated replacement value policy is a key determinant of the direction of change in the level of insurance coverage after the earthquakes. The earthquakes also highlighted the plight of those who were underinsured, prompting policyholders to update their insurance coverage to reflect the estimated cost of re-building their property. The survey has added further evidence to the existing literature, such as those who have had a recent experience with disaster loss report increased risk perception if a similar event happens in future with females reporting a higher risk perception than males. Of the demographic variables, only gender has a relationship with changes in household cover. On the supply-side, this study has built a risk-based pricing model suitable to generate a competitive premium rate for natural disaster insurance cover. Using illustrative data from the Christchurch Red-zone suburbs, the model generates competitive premium rates for catastrophe risk. When the proposed model incorporates the new RMS high-definition New Zealand Earthquake Model, for example, insurers can find the model useful to identify losses at a granular level so as to calculate the competitive premium. This study observes that the key to the success of the New Zealand dual insurance system despite the high prevalence of catastrophe losses are; firstly the EQC’s flat-rate pricing structure keeps private insurance premiums affordable and very high nationwide homeowner take-up rates of natural disaster insurance. Secondly, private insurers and the EQC have an elaborate reinsurance arrangement in place. By efficiently transferring risk to the reinsurer, the cost of writing primary insurance is considerably reduced ultimately expanding primary insurance capacity and supply of insurance coverage.