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Images, UC QuakeStudies

A residential property in Bexley with an overgrown garden. A spray-painted message on the wall of the house reads, "Thanks 4 the memories, 1997-2012, kia kaha". The photographer comments, "Today I took a drive around the residential area between Bexley and New Brighton. It was a stark reminder to be thankful for the situation we're in and perhaps not complain too much that our garden wall hasn't yet been rebuilt ... Saddest of all are the messages that have been scrawled on walls and garage doors by departing locals. At one end of the scale, thanking the family home for the memories, and at the other end of the scale cursing the looters which have made a bad situation that much more unbearable".

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Disasters are often followed by a large-scale stimulus supporting the economy through the built environment, which can last years. During this time, official economic indicators tend to suggest the economy is doing well, but as activity winds down, the sentiment can quickly change. In response to the damaging 2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand, the regional economy outpaced national economic growth rates for several years during the rebuild. The repair work on the built environment created years of elevated building activity. However, after the peak of the rebuilding activity, as economic and employment growth retracts below national growth, we are left with the question of how the underlying economy performs during large scale stimulus activity in the built environment. This paper assesses the performance of the underlying economy by quantifying the usual, demand-driven level of building activity at this time. Applying an Input–Output approach and excluding the economic benefit gained from the investment stimulus reveals the performance of the underlying economy. The results reveal a strong growing underlying economy, and while convergence was expected as the stimulus slowed down, the results found that growth had already crossed over for some time. The results reveal that the investment stimulus provides an initial 1.5% to 2% growth buffer from the underlying economy before the growth rates cross over. This supports short-term economic recovery and enables the underlying economy to transition away from a significant rebuild stimulus. Once the growth crosses over, five years after the disaster, economic growth in the underlying economy remains buoyant even if official regional economic data suggest otherwise.