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Research papers, Lincoln University

This paper identifies and analyses the networks of support for tangata whaiora (mental health clients) utilising a kaupapa Mäori health service following the Ötautahi/Christchurch earthquakes in Aotearoa New Zealand from 2010 to 2012. Semi- structured interviews were undertaken with 39 participants, comprising clients (Mäori and Päkehä), staff, managers and board members of a kaupapa Mäori provider in the city. Selected quotes are presented alongside a social network analysis of the support accessed by all participants. Results show the signifi cant isolation of both Mäori and Päkehä mental health clients post- disaster and the complexity of individuals and collectives dealing with temporally and spatially overlapping hazards and disasters at personal, whänau and community level.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

A story of hope, at least when it comes to the rebuilding challenge ahead, particularly of Christchurch's badly damaged Cathedral. The Australian city of Newcastle suffered a major earthquake in 1989, and over the next few years put huge effort into rebuilding, virtually brick by brick, its ruined Cathedral. John McNaughton, who was the Lord mayor of Newcastle who oversaw the rebuild, joins us.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

A second attempt at a symposium aimed at learning from the Canterbury earthquakes has been labelled an attempt to re-write history. The first was cancelled by the previous government two months after it was announced, and after over one hundred and fifty thousand dollars had been spent on preparations. The revamped symposium is a joint venture between the government and the Christchurch City Council.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The devastating magnitude M6.3 earthquake, that struck the city of Christchurch at 12:51pm on Tuesday 22 February 2011, caused widespread damage to the lifeline systems. Following the event, the Natural Hazard Research Platform (NHRP) of New Zealand funded a short-term project “Recovery of Lifelines” aiming to: 1) coordinate the provision of information to meet lifeline short-term needs; and to 2) facilitate the accessibility to lifelines of best practice engineering details, along with hazards and vulnerability information already available from the local and international scientific community. This paper aims to briefly summarise the management of the recovery process for the most affected lifelines systems, including the electric system, the road, gas, and the water and wastewater networks. Further than this, the paper intends to discuss successes and issues encountered by the “Recovery of Lifelines” NHRP project in supporting lifelines utilities.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Canterbury earthquakes, which involved widespread damage in the February 2011 event and ongoing aftershocks near the Christchurch central business district (CBD), presented decision-makers with many recovery challenges. This paper identifies major government decisions, challenges, and lessons in the early recovery of Christchurch based on 23 key-informant interviews conducted 15 months after the February 2011 earthquake. It then focuses on one of the most important decisions – maintaining the cordon around the heavily damaged CBD – and investigates its impacts. The cordon displaced 50,000 central city jobs, raised questions about (and provided new opportunities for) the long-term viability of downtown, influenced the number and practice of building demolitions, and affected debris management; despite being associated with substantial losses, the cordon was commonly viewed as necessary, and provided some benefits in facilitating recovery. Management of the cordon poses important lessons for planning for catastrophic urban earthquakes around the world.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text reads 'What??... Is it another quake?.. No, it's just Gerry Brownlee rushing the CERA bill through'. The cartoon shows the huge back of Minister for Christchurch Recovery Gerry Brownlee moving energetically and forcefully to get the CERA bill past its third reading. Context - The bill establishes the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (Cera) and empowers it to lead reconstruction efforts in Christchurch. It gives Cera specific powers to get information from any source, to requisition and build on land and to carry out demolitions. It can also take over local authorities if they are not working effectively on recovery work. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence was extremely damaging to structures in Christchurch and continues to have a large economic and social impact on the city and surrounding regions. In addition to strong ground shaking (Bradley and Cubrinovski 2011 SRL; Bradley 2012 SDEE), extensive liquefaction was observed, particularly in the 4 September 2010 Darfield earthquake and the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake (Cubrinovski et al. 2010 BNZSEE; 2011 SRL). Large observed vertical ground motion amplitudes were recorded in the events in this sequence, with vertical peak ground accelerations of over 2.2g being observed at the Heathcote Valley Primary School during the Christchurch earthquake, and numerous other vertical motions exceeding 1.0g (Bradley and Cubrinovski 2011 SRL; Bradley 2012 SDEE; Fry et al 2011 SRL). Vertical peak ground accelerations of over 1.2g were observed in the Darfield earthquake.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

A new exhibition is simply called " 37". The show is by the photographer Doc Ross, features 37 Christchurch people captured on film using a 37 second exposure. The aim: to reflect the length of time their city shook during February 2011's devastating earthquake. Katy Gosset hears some of the stories behind the exhibition and hits the streets to record her own take on the 37 second concept.

Research papers, Lincoln University

The devastating earthquakes of September 2010 and February 2011 have without question upset the Christchurch City way of life for all. Families and businesses, as well as the natural and built environments have been directly affected, and our social landscapes have since evolved to accommodate the visible changes. Though not perhaps seen as a priority, the Christchurch nightlife has been profoundly altered by the quakes and the once popular CBD clubbing scene has ceased to exist. The concern highlighted in this article is the way in which this has put pressure on suburban bars and the the implications of this for local residents.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

The 2011, 6.3 magnitude Christchurch earthquake in New Zealand caused considerable structural damage. It is believed that this event has now resulted in demolition of about 65-70% of the building stock in the Central Business District (CBD), significantly crippling economic activities in the city of Christchurch. A major concern raised from this event was adequacy of the current seismic design practice adopted for reinforced concrete walls due to their poor performance in modern buildings. The relatively short-duration earthquake motion implied that the observed wall damage occurred in a brittle manner despite adopting a ductile design philosophy. This paper presents the lessons learned from the observed wall damage in the context of current state of knowledge in the following areas: concentrating longitudinal reinforcement in wall end regions; determining wall thickness to prevent out-of-plane wall buckling; avoiding lap splices in plastic hinge zones; and quantifying minimum vertical reinforcement. http://www.2eceesistanbul.org/

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Avon and Heathcote Rivers, located in the city of Christchurch, New Zealand, are lowland spring-fed rivers linked with the Christchurch Groundwater System. At present, the flow paths and recharge sources to the Christchurch Groundwater System are not fully understood. Study of both the Avon and Heathcote Rivers can provide greater insight into this system. In addition, during the period 2010-2012, Christchurch has experienced large amounts of seismic activity, including a devastating Mw 6.2 aftershock on February 22nd, 2011, which caused widespread damage and loss of life. Associated with these earthquakes was the release of large amounts of water through liquefaction and temporary springs throughout the city. This provided a unique opportunity to study groundwater surface water interactions following a large scale seismic event. Presented herein is the first major geochemical study on the Avon and Heathcote Rivers and the hydrological impact of the February 22, 2011 Christchurch Earthquake. The Avon, Heathcote, and Waimakariri Rivers were sampled in quarterly periods starting in July 2011 and analyzed for stable Isotopes δ¹⁸O, δD, and δ¹³C and major anion composition. In addition, post -earthquake samples were collected over the days immediately following the February 22, 2011 earthquake and analyzed for stable isotopes δ¹⁸O and δD and major anion composition. A variety of analytical methods were used identify the source of the waters in the Avon-Heathcote System and evaluate the effectiveness of stable isotopes as geochemical tracers in the Christchurch Groundwater System. The results of this thesis found that the waters from the Avon and Heathcote Rivers are geochemically the same, originating from groundwater, and exhibit a strong tidal influence within 5km of the Avon-Heathcote Estuary. The surface waters released following the February 22nd, 2011 earthquake were indistinguishable from quarterly samples taken from the Avon and Heathcote Rivers when comparing stable isotopic composition. The anion data suggests the waters released following the February 22nd, 2011 Christchurch Earthquake were sourced primarily from shallow groundwater, and also suggests a presence of urban sewage at some sites. Attempts to estimate recharge sources for the Avon-Heathcote Rivers using published models for the Christchurch Groundwater System yielded results that were not consistent between models. In evaluating the use of geochemical constituents as tracers in the Christchurch Groundwater System, no one isotope could provide a clear resolution, but when used in conjunction, δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C, and DIC, seem to be the most effective tracers. Sample sizes for δ¹³C were too small for a robust evaluation. Variability on the Waimakariri River appears to be greater than previously estimated, which could have significant impacts on geochemical models for the Christchurch Groundwater System. This research demonstrates the value of using multiple geochemical constituents to enrich our understanding of the groundwater surfaces-water interactions and the Christchurch Groundwater System as a whole.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of a tour through the Christchurch central city Red Zone. The video includes footage of Armagh Street, Madras Street, Latimer Square, St John's Anglican Church, Hereford Street, the Octagon Live restaurant, the Design and Arts building, the High Street mall, and the Grand Chancellor Hotel. It also includes footage of construction workers cutting up metal beams, and clearing rubble from a building on Manchester Street.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

Aerial footage of the Christchurch central city, taken in April 2011, several months after the 22 February 2011 earthquake. The video shows damage to the Cathedral of the Blessed Sacrament, Manchester Street, the Press building, the Octagon Live restaurant, St Elmo Courts, Cashel Mall, the Regent Theatre, the Arts Centre, Woolsack Lane, and the Farmers Building car park. It also shows USAR members meeting in Cathedral Square.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video about the New Zealand Police and the New Zealand Army working in Christchurch to keep the city safe following the 4 September 2010 earthquake. The video includes an interview with Senior Sergeant Phillip Dean, Captain Mark Rutledge, Lance Corporal Aaron Tuhi, Lieutenant Dennis Petre, and Second Lieutenant David Pedrosa-Durie. It also includes footage of the New Zealand Military preparing meals at Burnham Camp.

Images, eqnz.chch.2010

This is the Summit Road below Mt Cavendish and shows a few remaining high buildings in the central city beyond (in setting sun). Just above centre is the doomed AMI Stadium (1) aka Lancaster Park, home to Canterbury cricket and rugby till the erathquakes.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

With the occurrence of natural disasters on the increase, major cities around the world face the potential of complete loss of infrastructure due to design guidelines that do not consider resilience in the design. With the February 22nd, 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, being the largest insured event, lessons learnt from the rebuild will be vital for the preparation of future disasters. Therefore the objective of this research is to understand the financial implications of the changes to the waste water design guidelines used throughout the five year rebuild programme of works. The research includes a study of the SCIRT alliance model selected for the delivery that is flexible enough to handle changes in the design with minimal impact on the direct cost of the rebuild works. The study further includes the analysis and compares the impact of the three different guidelines on maintenance and replacement cost over the waste water pipe asset life. The research concludes that with the varying ground conditions in Christchurch and also the wide variety of materials in use in the waste water network up to the start of the CES, the rebuild was not a ‘one size fits all’ approach.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Access to clean and safe drinking water is a fundamental human requirement. However, in many areas of the world natural water sources have been impacted by a variety of biological and chemical contaminants. The ingestion of these contaminants may cause acute or chronic health problems. To prevent such illnesses, many technologies have been developed to treat, disinfect and supply safe drinking water quality. However, despite these advancements, water supply distribution systems can adversely affect the drinking water quality before it is delivered to consumers. The primary aim of this research was to investigate the effect that water distribution systems may have on household drinking water quality in Christchurch, New Zealand and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Water samples were collected from the source water and household taps in both cities. The samples were then tested for various physical, chemical and biological water quality parameters. The data collected was also used to determine if water samples complied with national drinking water quality standards in both countries. Independent samples t-test statistical analyses were also performed to determine if water quality measured in the samples collected from the source and household taps was significantly different. Water quality did not vary considerably between the source and tap water samples collected in Christchurch City. No bacteria were detected in any sample. However, the pH and total iron concentrations measured in source and tap water samples were found to be significantly different. The lower pH values measured in tap water samples suggests that corrosion may be taking place in the distribution system. No water samples transgressed the Drinking Water Standards for New Zealand (DWSNZ) MAVs. Monitoring data collected by the Christchurch City Council (CCC) was also used for comparison. A number of pH, turbidity and total iron concentration measurements collected by the CCC in 2011 were found to exceed the guideline values. This is likely due to structural damage to the source wells and pump-stations that occurred during the 2011 earthquake events. Overall, it was concluded that the distribution system does not adversely affect the quality of Christchurch City’s household drinking water. The water quality measured in samples collected from the source (LTP) and household taps in Addis Ababa was found to vary considerably. The water collected from the source complied with the Ethiopian (WHO) drinking water quality standards. However, tap water samples were often found to have degraded water quality for the physical and chemical parameters tested. This was especially the case after supply interruption and reinstatement events. Bacteria were also often detected in household tap water samples. The results from this study indicate that water supply disruptions may result in degraded water quality. This may be due to a drop in pipeline pressure and the intrusion of contaminants through the leaky and cross-connected pipes in the distribution network. This adversely affects the drinking water quality in Addis Ababa.

Articles, UC QuakeStudies

This study led on from Earthquake hazard and risk assessment study Stage 1 Part A: Earthquake source identification and characterisation (Pettinga et al, 1998). It used the location and characteristics of active faults in the Canterbury region, and the historic record of earthquakes to estimate levels of ground shaking (MM intensity, peak ground acceleration and spectral accelerations) across Canterbury for different return periods. The study also provided earthquake scenarios for selected towns and cities in Canterbury, and undertook detailed investigations into the largest historic earthquakes in Christchurch and parts of the Canterbury region. See Object Overview for background and usage information.

Research papers, Lincoln University

Creative temporary or transitional use of vacant urban open spaces is seldom foreseen in traditional urban planning and has historically been linked to economic or political disturbances. Christchurch, like most cities, has had a relatively small stock of vacant spaces throughout much of its history. This changed dramatically after an earthquake and several damaging aftershocks hit the city in 2010 and 2011; temporary uses emerged on post-earthquake sites that ran parallel to the “official” rebuild discourse and programmes of action. The paper examines a post-earthquake transitional community-initiated open space (CIOS) in central Christchurch. CIOS have been established by local community groups as bottom-up initiatives relying on financial sponsorship, agreements with local landowners who leave their land for temporary projects until they are ready to redevelop, and volunteers who build and maintain the spaces. The paper discusses bottom-up governance approaches in depth in a single temporary post-earthquake community garden project using the concepts of community resilience and social capital. The study analyses and highlights the evolution and actions of the facilitating community organisation (Greening the Rubble) and the impact of this on the project. It discusses key actors’ motivations and values, perceived benefits and challenges, and their current involvement with the garden. The paper concludes with observations and recommendations about the initiation of such projects and the challenges for those wishing to study ephemeral social recovery phenomena.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

New Zealand has a housing crisis. High land prices and high construction costs have all contributed to unaffordable housing. Additionally, the New Zealand dream of the "quarter acre section" lifestyle that has encouraged urban sprawl throughout our major cities with increasingly unsustainable services, transport and road costs. New and exciting housing options need to be explored for urban areas. Christchurch is a city in New Zealand where urban sprawl has always been prevalent. In the wake of the 2010/2011 earthquakes sprawl increased further, relocating large suburban areas yet further away from the city centre. This has caused a greater reliance on cars, and a slower revival to the city. Historically there is an aversion to higher density living. Perceived desirability is a large factor. The medium to high density solutions produced thus far have little regard for the concept of "home", with the use of substandard materials, and monotonous and repetitive design, and essentially falling short of addressing the needs of New Zealand's increasing population. "A Home with a View" looks to address the needs of New Zealanders and Christchurch, through the individual tower-house within an overarching tower-housing neighbourhood development. The design as research thesis develops a medium density tower-housing neighbourhood as a mini city-scape, through the exploration of the tower-house as an intimate space to live and observe from. Tower-housing has the potential to create a delightful, lively neighbourhood environment that contributes to quirky, new, and exciting housing options for New Zealand. The tower-house creates desire through unconventional lifestyle and highlights engaging solutions to an individual vertical housing type.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Following the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes the seismic design of buildings with precast concrete panels has received significant attention. Although this form of construction generally performed adequately in Christchurch, there were a considerable number of precast concrete panel connection failures. This observation prompted a review of more than 4700 panel details from 108 buildings to establish representative details used in both existing and new multi-storey and low rise industrial precast concrete buildings in three major New Zealand cities of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch. Details were collected from precast manufacturers and city councils and were categorised according to type. The detailing and quantity of each reviewed connection type in the sampled data is reported, and advantages and potential deficiencies of each connection type are discussed. The results of this survey provide a better understanding of the relative prevalence of common detailing used in precast concrete panels and guidance for the design of future experimental studies. http://www.nzsee.org.nz/publications/nzsee-quarterly-bulletin/

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of a tour of the Christchurch central city Red Zone. The video includes footage of the Design and Arts College Building, the Heritage Hotel, Cathedral Junction, the Octagon Live restaurant, Manchester Street, Hereford Street, Bedford Row, High Street, Lichfield Street, the Majestic Theatre, Colombo Street, Cashel Street, Just Jeans and Starbucks on Cashel Street, and Kilmore Street. It also includes footage of residents on a Red Zone bus tour.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The cartoon shows Prime Minister John Key as a surgeon in a blood-spattered white coat; he has just created a Frankenstein monster which has resulted in the Minister for Earthquake Recovery Gerry Brownlee and Mayor of Christchurch Bob Parker joined together in a single body named 'CERA". Gerry Brownlee clutches a huge spiked mallet and Bob Parker a paintbrush. Context - a new bill is being rushed through parliament to establish the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (Cera); it empowers it to lead reconstruction efforts in Christchurch. It gives Cera specific powers to get information from any source, to requisition and build on land and to carry out demolitions. It can also take over local authorities if they are not working effectively on recovery work. The monster suggests distinctly differing philosophies on how the work of rebuilding Christchurch should proceed. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand’s South Island induced widespread liquefaction phenomena across the Christchurch urban area on four occasions (4 Sept 2010; 22 Feb; 13 June; 23 Dec 2011), that resulted in widespread ejection of silt and fine sand. This impacted transport networks as well as infiltrated and contaminated the damaged storm water system, making rapid clean-up an immediate post-earthquake priority. In some places the ejecta was contaminated by raw sewage and was readily remobilised in dry windy conditions, creating a long-term health risk to the population. Thousands of residential properties were inundated with liquefaction ejecta, however residents typically lacked the capacity (time or resources) to clean-up without external assistance. The liquefaction silt clean-up response was co-ordinated by the Christchurch City Council and executed by a network of contractors and volunteer groups, including the ‘Farmy-Army’ and the ‘Student-Army’. The duration of clean-up time of residential properties and the road network was approximately 2 months for each of the 3 main liquefaction inducing earthquakes; despite each event producing different volumes of ejecta. Preliminary cost estimates indicate total clean-up costs will be over NZ$25 million. Over 500,000 tonnes of ejecta has been stockpiled at Burwood landfill since the beginning of the Canterbury earthquakes sequence. The liquefaction clean-up experience in Christchurch following the 2010-2011 earthquake sequence has emerged as a valuable case study to support further analysis and research on the coordination, management and costs of large volume deposition of fine grained sediment in urban areas.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Topics - Hundreds of people have lost their lives in Egypt overnight, and it's expected the death toll will continue to rise. This comes after the military over threw the democratically elected leader last month, and has now forcibly closed down protester camps. Power company Orion - owned by Christchurch City Council and Selwyn District Council - is looking to hike its prices until 2019, to help recover revenue lost because of the Canterbury earthquakes.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A digitally manipulated image of a high-reach excavator demolishing a building. The photographer comments, "After the earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand the demolition of most of the City Centre began. After two years the government thought that the progress was far too slow, so began the start of the automatic demolition. Luckily when the solar powered demolition machines started to cause indiscriminate death and destruction they were isolated to the South Island and unable to cross the seas".

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Gaylene Preston has been making feature films and documentaries with a distinctive NZ flavour for over 30 years. Her latest venture is an epic six part drama series called Hope and Wire, which she produced and directed. Set in Christchurch in the aftermath of the devastating earthquakes, Hope and Wire is a fictionalised mix of characters - families that fly apart, others that come together - and what happens to a city that loses it's centre in an instant.

Research papers, Lincoln University

The city of Ōtautahi/Christchurch experienced a series of earthquakes that began on September 4th, 2010. The most damaging event occurred on February 22nd, 2011 but significant earthquakes also occurred on June 13th and December 23rd with aftershocks still occurring well into 2012. The resulting disaster is the second deadliest natural disaster in New Zealand’s history with 185 deaths. During 2011 the Canterbury earthquakes were one of the costliest disasters worldwide with an expected cost of up to $NZ30 billion. Hundreds of commercial buildings and thousands of houses have been destroyed or are to be demolished and extensive repairs are needed for infrastructure to over 100,000 homes. As many as 8,900 people simply abandoned their homes and left the city in the first few months after the February event (Newell, 2012), and as many as 50,000 may leave during 2012. In particular, young whānau and single young women comprised a disproportionate number of these migrants, with evidence of a general movement to the North Island. Te Puni Kōkiri sought a mix of quantitative and qualitative research to examine the social and economic impacts of the Christchurch earthquakes on Māori and their whānau. The result of this work will be a collection of evidence to inform policy to support and assist Māori and their whānau during the recovery/rebuild phases. To that end, this report triangulates available statistical and geographical information with qualitative data gathered over 2010 and 2011 by a series of interviews conducted with Māori who experienced the dramatic events associated with the earthquakes. A Māori research team at Lincoln University was commissioned to undertake the research as they were already engaged in transdisciplinary research (began in the May 2010), that focused on quickly gathering data from a range of Māori who experienced the disaster, including relevant economic, environmental, social and cultural factors in the response and recovery of Māori to these events. Participants for the qualitative research were drawn from Māori whānau who both stayed and left the city. Further data was available from ongoing projects and networks that the Lincoln research team was already involved in, including interviews with Māori first responders and managers operating in the CBD on the day of the February event. Some limited data is also available from younger members of affected whānau. Māori in Ōtautahi/Christchurch City have exhibited their own culturally-attuned collective responses to the disaster. However, it is difficult to ascertain Māori demographic changes due to a lack of robust statistical frameworks but Māori outward migration from the city is estimated to range between 560 and 1,100 people. The mobility displayed by Māori demonstrates an important but unquantified response by whānau to this disaster, with emigration to Australia presenting an attractive option for young Māori, an entrenched phenomenon that correlates to cyclical downturns and the long-term decline of the New Zealand economy. It is estimated that at least 315 Māori have emigrated from the Canterbury region to Australia post-quake, although the disaster itself may be only one of a series of events that has prompted such a decision. Māori children made up more than one in four of the net loss of children aged 6 to 15 years enrolled in schools in Greater Christchurch over the year to June 2011. Research literature identifies depression affecting a small but significant number of children one to two years post-disaster and points to increasing clinical and organisational demands for Māori and other residents of the city. For those residents in the eastern or coastal suburbs – home to many of the city’s Māori population - severe damage to housing, schools, shops, infrastructure, and streets has meant disruption to their lives, children’s schooling, employment, and community functioning. Ongoing abandonment of homes by many has meant a growing sense of unease and loss of security, exacerbated by arson, burglaries, increased drinking, a stalled local and national economy, and general confusion about the city’s future. Māori cultural resilience has enabled a considerable network of people, institutions, and resources being available to Māori , most noticeably through marae and their integral roles of housing, as a coordinating hub, and their arguing for the wider affected communities of Christchurch. Relevant disaster responses need to be discussed within whānau, kōhanga, kura, businesses, communities, and wider neighbourhoods. Comprehensive disaster management plans need to be drafted for all iwi in collaboration with central government, regional, and city or town councils. Overall, Māori are remarkably philosophical about the effects of the disaster, with many proudly relishing their roles in what is clearly a historic event of great significance to the city and country. Most believe that ‘being Māori’ has helped cope with the disaster, although for some this draws on a collective history of poverty and marginalisation, features that contribute to the vulnerability of Māori to such events. While the recovery and rebuild phases offer considerable options for Māori and iwi, with Ngāi Tahu set to play an important stakeholder in infrastructural, residential, and commercial developments, some risk and considerable unknowns are evident. Considerable numbers of Māori may migrate into the Canterbury region for employment in the rebuild, and trades training strategies have already been established. With many iwi now increasingly investing in property, the risks from significant earthquakes are now more transparent, not least to insurers and the reinsurance sector. Iwi authorities need to be appraised of insurance issues and ensure sufficient coverage exists and investments and developments are undertaken with a clear understanding of the risks from natural hazards and exposure to future disasters.

Research papers, Lincoln University

Prognostic modelling provides an efficient means to analyse the coastal environment and provide effective knowledge for long term urban planning. This paper outlines how the use of SWAN and Xbeach numerical models within the ESRI ArcGIS interface can simulate geomorphological evolution through hydrodynamic forcing for the Greater Christchurch coastal environment. This research followed the data integration techniques of Silva and Taborda (2012) and utilises their beach morphological modelling tool (BeachMM tool). The statutory requirements outlined in the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement 2010 were examined to determine whether these requirements are currently being complied with when applying the recent sea level rise predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), and it would appear that it does not meet those requirements. This is because coastal hazard risk has not been thoroughly quantified by the installation of the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) residential red zone. However, the Christchurch City Council’s (CCC) flood management area does provide an extent to which managed coastal retreat is a real option. This research assessed the effectiveness of the prognostic models, forecasted a coastline for 100 years from now, and simulated the physical effects of extreme events such as storm surge given these future predictions. The results of this research suggest that progradation will continue to occur along the Christchurch foreshore due to the net sediment flux retaining an onshore direction and the current hydrodynamic activity not being strong enough to move sediment offshore. However, inundation during periods of storm surge poses a risk to human habitation on low lying areas around the Avon-Heathcote Estuary and the Brooklands lagoon similar to the CCC’s flood management area. There are complex interactions at the Waimakariri River mouth with very high rates of accretion and erosion within a small spatial scale due to the river discharge. There is domination of the marine environment over the river system determined by the lack of generation of a distinct river delta, and river channel has not formed within the intertidal zone clearly. The Avon-Heathcote ebb tidal delta aggrades on the innner fan and erodes on the outer fan due to wave domination. The BeachMM tool facilitates the role of spatial and temporal analysis effectively and the efficiency of that performance is determined by the computational operating system.