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Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We examine the role of business interruption insurance in business recovery following the Christchurch earthquake in 2011 in the short- and medium-term. In the short-term analysis, we ask whether insurance increases the likelihood of business survival in the aftermath of a disaster. We find only weak evidence that those firms that had incurred damage, but were covered by business interruption insurance, had higher likelihood of survival post-quake compared with those firms that did not have insurance. This absence of evidence may reflect the high degree of uncertainty in the months following the 2011 earthquake and the multiplicity of severe aftershocks. For the medium-term, our results show a more explicit role for insurance in the aftermath of a disaster. Firms with business interruption insurance have a higher probability of increasing productivity and improved performance following a catastrophe. Furthermore, our results show that those organisations that receive prompt and full payments of their claims have a better recovery, in terms of profitability and a subjective ‘”better off” measure’ than those that had protracted or inadequate claim payments (less than 80% of the claim paid within 2.5 years). Interestingly, the latter group does worse than those organisations that had damage but no insurance coverage. This analysis strongly indicates the importance not only of good insurance coverage, but of an insurance system that also delivers prompt claim payments. As a first paper attempting to empirically identify a causal effect of insurance on business recovery, we also emphasize some caveats to our analysis.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Earthquakes are insured only with public sector involvement in high-income countries where the risk of earthquakes is perceived to be high. The proto-typical examples of this public sector involvement are the public earthquake insurance schemes in California, Japan, and New Zealand (NZ). Each of these insurance programs is structured differently, and the purpose of this paper is to examine these differences using a concrete case-study, the sequence of earthquakes that occurred in the Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2011. This event turned out to have been the most heavily insured earthquake event in history. We examine what would have been the outcome of the earthquakes had the system of insurance in NZ been different. In particular, we focus on the public earthquake insurance programs in California (the California Earthquake Authority - CEA), and in Japan (Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance - JER). Overall, the aggregate cost to the public insurer in NZ was $NZ 11.1 billion in its response to the earthquakes. If a similar-sized disaster event had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received $NZ 2.5 billion and $NZ 1.4 billion from the JER and CEA, respectively. We further describe the spatial and distributive patterns of these different scenarios.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We measure the longer-term effect of a major earthquake on the local economy, using night-time light intensity measured from space, and investigate whether insurance claim payments for damaged residential property affected the local recovery process. We focus on the destructive Christchurch earthquake of 2011 as our case study. In this event more than 95% of residential housing units were covered by insurance, but insurance payments were staggered over 5 years, enabling us to identify their local impact. We find that night-time luminosity can capture the process of recovery and describe the recovery’s determinants. We also find that insurance payments contributed significantly to the process of economic recovery after the earthquake, but delayed payments were less affective and cash settlement of claims were more affective in contributing to local recovery than insurance-managed rebuilding.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We estimate the causal effects of a large unanticipated natural disaster on high schoolers’ university enrolment decisions and subsequent medium-term labour market outcomes. Using national administrative data after a destructive earthquake in New Zealand, we estimate that the disaster raises tertiary education enrolment of recent high school graduates by 6.1 percentage points. The effects are most pronounced for males, students who are academically weak relative to their peers, and students from schools directly damaged by the disaster. As relatively low ability males are overrepresented in sectors of the labour market helped by the earthquake, greater demand for university may stem from permanent changes in deeper behavioural parameters such as risk aversion or time preference, rather than as a coping response to poor economic opportunities.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

A huge arm tattooed with words depicting various kinds of violence and anti-social behaviour like 'brawls', 'assault', 'drugs', rape', 'theft' etc and with the letters of the word 'HATE' on each of the four fingers, squeezes New Zealand. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The cartoon shows a family standing proudly in front of their tent which has 'No leaks!', is 'Earthquake-proof!', and 'Affordable!' An 'Optional extra' is an 'inflatable base for tsunami-prone areas'. Text below reads 'Not suitable for volcanic areas. Refers to the problems that have been experienced in the last couple of decades with leaky homes because of slack building codes (which have now been tightened), refers also to the Canterbury earthquake of 4th September with its aftermath of rebuilding for greater earthquake proofing and lastly refers to the problem of people being unable to afford houses. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

A very large woman stands wedged between two rows of concrete pillars eating a huge cream bun. She says 'Christmas fare protection... it helps prevent lateral spread!' Context - overeating at Christmas and lateral spreading, which is associated with liquefaction and tends to occur near streams and waterways as the soil mass moves towards them. Reference to the Christchurch earthquake of 4th September 2010. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The arms of a woman who represents New Zealand reach out to a baby to whom she has just given birth. The baby represents '2011' and is a particularly hideous specimen. The doctor who holds the baby says 'He's cute now but wait 'til he gets older!' Outside the window is seen a cracked and damaged landscape and a storm rages; the headstone of a grave reads 'RIP 2010'. Context - Christchurch or maybe the South Island have had a bad year because of the Pike River Mine disaster and the earthquake of 4 September 2010. There is perhaps prescience in this cartoon because on 22 February 2011 a much worse earthquake hit Christchurch. Published in The Press Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The cartoon's title is 'Life in the South Island'. A man wonders aloud to his wife when the 'plague of locusts' will arrive as they have had 'collapsing finance companies, earthquakes' and 'heavy snow damage'. Refers to the collapse of South Canterbury Finance, the earthquake of 4th September, and more recently, heavy snow in Southland that has caused roofs to collapse. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text reads 'Solution to Christchurch sewage problems?...' A woman, with a roll of toilet paper in her hand, climbs a ladder to a toilet that is positioned on a sewage pipe high above the ground. There are further toilets at intervals on the pipe. Her husband stands in the garden and observes that it is 'Easy to access and easy to repair'. Context - the Christchurch earthquakes and continuing aftershocks have done huge damage to sewage infrastructures which suggests having the pipes above ground as a solution. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text across the top of the cartoon reads 'When the luck ran out' and shows a disintegrating building that includes two dice with a skull and crossbone on one facet. Context - On 22 February 2011 at 12:51 pm (NZDT), Christchurch experienced a major magnitude 6.3 earthquake, which resulted in severe damage and many casualties. A National State of Emergency has been declared. This followed on from an original magnitude 7.1 earthquake on 4 September 2010 which did far less damage and in which no-one died. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text reads 'Water - One minute too much - The next, not enough' In the first frame a man is fed up with another downpour and in the second frame there is shown a plastic bottle of drinking water. Refers to the amount of rain in recent times but also the need for bottled or boiled water In Canterbury after the earthquake of 4th September 2010 which caused major damage to sewage and water systems. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

A man sits at a table reading a C.C.C. (Christchurch City Council) report with the title 'Where your rates go!' He says 'Rubbish collection sewer roads squanderings bail outs' Context - After the Christchurch earthquake of 4 September 2010 rates have been of particular concern to residents which means people are sensitive to any possibility of squandering. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Relates to the three new categories for residential foundation design that have been developed and will be required for repairing and rebuilding homes in Canterbury following the earthquakes of 2010 and 2011. The 'zones' referred to in the cartoon are the colours designated to different degrees of damage to particular areas or buildings in Christchurch after the earthquakes. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text top left reads 'A tale of two quakes' In the first frame a man runs from 'radiation leaks' yelling 'The end of the world!' and in the second frame a man runs from the notion 'No World Cup?' yelling 'The end of the world!' Context - the terrible earthquake and tsunami in Japan 11 March 2011 that have led to the overheating of several nuclear power plants that are leaking radiation and threaten a nuclear catastrophe and the Christchurch earthquakes of 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011 that have led to the decision that because of the amount of damage to the venue plus infrastructures and accommodation for visitors the Rugby World Cup will not be played in Christchurch. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The title is 'Main faultline to be probed'. The cartoon shows an image of Maori Party MP Hone Harawira with two small firemen on his shoulder squirting water into one ear so that it explodes out of the other. One of the firemen says 'I tell ya now the next quake will be an eight point four!' Context - The problem of criticism of his own party by maverick Maori Party MP Hone Harawira. Harawira says that many Maori believe the party has not been able to be an independent voice because of its government partnership and so Mr Harawira is calling for his party to consider its options at the next election. Mr Harawira said that the problem was exacerbated because when the Maori Party was going into coalition with National, the whole world was going into recession and when this happens their choice (National) is to help the rich guy, help the big business, on the basis that they will stay here and keep their business here and everybody will get a job He said the Maori Party needed to get back to supporting basic social policies to help the poor. There is a reference to the Christchurch earthquake of 4 September 2010 and the many strange ways of trying to predict the earthquakes and aftershocks that Christchurch has been experiencing.. (Stuff 18 January 2011) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The South Island is depicted as a punch bag which is reeling with the punishment inflicted after having been practised on by 'blizzards', 'earthquakes', 'disasters' and now 'drought'. Context; the Christchurch earthquake of 4 October and the Pike River Mine disaster of 19 November as well as some fairly extreme weather. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).