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Research Papers, Lincoln University

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a tool offers opportunities for modeling the inherent complexity and uncertainty associated with socio-environmental systems. This study draws on New Zealand ski fields (multiple locations) as socio- environmental systems while considering their perceived resilience to low probability but potential high consequences catastrophic natural events (specifically earthquakes). We gathered data at several ski fields using a mixed methodology including: geomorphic assessment, qualitative interviews, and an adaptation of Ozesmi and Ozesmi’s (2003) multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) approach. The data gathered from FCM are qualitatively condensed, and aggregated to three different participant social groups. The social groups include ski fields users, ski industry workers, and ski field managers. Both quantitative and qualitative indices are used to analyze social cognitive maps to identify critical nodes for ANN simulations. The simulations experiment with auto-associative neural networks for developing adaptive preparation, response and recovery strategies. Moreover, simulations attempt to identify key priorities for preparation, response, and recovery for improving resilience to earthquakes in these complex and dynamic environments. The novel mixed methodology is presented as a means of linking physical and social sciences in high complexity, high uncertainty socio-environmental systems. Simulation results indicate that participants perceived that increases in Social Preparation Action, Social Preparation Resources, Social Response Action and Social Response Resources have a positive benefit in improving the resilience to earthquakes of ski fields’ stakeholders.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of the opening night of the Heathcote Valley Inn. The inn has been rebuilt, after the 133-year-old original inn was damaged in the 4 September 2010 earthquake. Mayor Bob Parker officially opens the new building.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of a press conference with Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, in the Christchurch Town Hall. Clinton talks about Canterbury's recovery after the 4 September 2010 earthquake. She also answers questions from members of the public.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

The damaged Ozone Hotel has had its window frames removed, and the interior has been gutted. The photographer comments, "The Ozone was badly damaged in Christchurch's February earthquake, but at considerable risk someone has removed the windows and door".

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A digitally manipulated image of a fallen headstone. The photographer comments, "Since the September 2010 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand a lot of the headstones have fallen, but sadly a lot have not been resurrected to their former places".