A video of the first part of a keynote address by Andrew Fennell, South Island Manager of TelstraClear, at the 2012 Seismics and the City forum. The talk focuses on leadership in challenging times and an organisation's preparedness to handle major business interruptions. TelstraClear's role in restoring and maintaining telecommunications in Canterbury is used as an example.
A video of the first part of an address by Joseph Thomas, CEO of NZIM Southern, at the 2012 Seismics and the City forum. The talk explores how post-quake Christchurch has become a laboratory for new ways of working and accelerated change, and how it is important for organisations to identify and develop the cadre of new leaders who came to the forefront during and after the February quake.
A video of the second part of an address by Joseph Thomas, CEO of NZIM Southern, at the 2012 Seismics and the City forum. The talk explores how post-quake Christchurch has become a laboratory for new ways of working and accelerated change, and how it is important for organisations to identify and develop the cadre of new leaders who came to the forefront during and after the February quake.
A video of the first part of an address by Roger Sutton, Chief Executive of Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority, at the 2012 Seismics and the City forum. The talk focuses on Sutton's roles as the CEO of Orion during the September and February earthquakes, and the co-ordinator of the recovery and rebuild of Christchurch.
A video of the second part of a keynote address by Dr. Colin G Harrison from IBM Smarter Cities, USA, at the 2012 Seismics and the City forum. The talk is about the opportunity that post-quake Christchurch has to reinvent and rebrand itself as a smart, green, energy-efficient city through clever IT strategies, flexible infrastructure, and sustainable values.
A video of the first part of a keynote address by Dr. Colin G Harrison from IBM Smarter Cities, USA, at the 2012 Seismics and the City forum. The talk is about the opportunity that post-quake Christchurch has to reinvent and rebrand itself as a smart, green, energy-efficient city through clever IT strategies, flexible infrastructure, and sustainable values.
A video of the second part of an address by Roger Sutton, Chief Executive of Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority, at the 2012 Seismics and the City forum. The talk focuses on Sutton's roles as the CEO of Orion during the September and February earthquakes, and the co-ordinator of the recovery and rebuild of Christchurch.
A video of a panel summary at the 2015 Seismics and the City forum, featuring Hon. Nicky Wagner, Associate Minister for the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery; John Ombler, Acting CEO of CERA; Ian Townsend, CEO of CERA; Raf Manji, Finance Spokesperson at the Christchurch City Council; Peter Townsend, CEO of Canterbury Employers Chamber of Commerce; and Joanna Norris, Editor of The Press.
A video of the first part of a series of talks on the topic of Planning and People, at the 2012 Seismics and the City forum. The talks are as follows: Mary Devine, Managing Director of Ballantyne and Co, on Anchoring Re:START and holding the centre; Anthony Leighs, Chief Executive of Leighs Construction, on Deconstruction and Reconstruction; and Sam Johnson, founder of the Student Volunteer Army, on Mobilising a Quick Response.
A video of the second part of a series of talks on the topic of Planning and People, at the 2012 Seismics and the City forum. The talks are as follows: Mary Devine, Managing Director of Ballantyne and Co, on Anchoring Re:START and holding the centre; Anthony Leighs, Chief Executive of Leighs Construction, on Deconstruction and Reconstruction; and Sam Johnson, founder of the Student Volunteer Army, on Mobilising a Quick Response
A video of a panel discussion at the 2014 Seismics and the City forum. The theme of this section was Building Momentum, and it addressed panellists' views on the progress of the rebuild, the main obstacles, and how they can be resolved. The panellists are as follows: Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel; Waimakariri Mayor David Ayers; Roger Sutton, CEO of CERA; Ian Simpson, CEO of the NZ Earthquake Commission; Peter Townsend, CEO of Canterbury Employers' Chamber of Commerce; and Joanna Norris, Editor of The Press.
Abstract This study provides a simplified methodology for pre-event data collection to support a faster and more accurate seismic loss estimation. Existing pre-event data collection frameworks are reviewed. Data gathered after the Canterbury earthquake sequences are analysed to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of building damage. Conclusions drawns are used to explore new approaches to conduct pre-event building assessment.
In the last two decades, New Zealand (NZ) has experienced significant earthquakes, including the 2010 M 7.2 Darfield, 2011 M 6.2 Christchurch, and 2016 M 7.8 Kaikōura events. Amongst these large events, tens of thousands of smaller earthquakes have occurred. While previous event and ground-motion databases have analyzed these events, many events below M 4 have gone undetected. The goal of this study is to expand on previous databases, particularly for small magnitude (M<4) and low-amplitude ground motions. This new database enables a greater understanding of regional variations within NZ and contributes to the validity of internationally developed ground-motion models. The database includes event locations and magnitude estimates with uncertainty considerations, and tectonic type assessed in a hierarchical manner. Ground motions are extracted from the GeoNet FDSN server and assessed for quality using a neural network classification approach. A deep neural network approach is also utilized for picking P and S phases for determination of event hypocentres. Relative hypocentres are further improved by double-difference relocation and will contribute toward developing shallow (< 50 km) seismic tomography models. Analysis of the resulting database is compared with previous studies for discussion of implications toward national hazard prediction models.
"There are major faults in low-seismicity areas that could produce a major event."
A map of earthquake events in Canterbury.
New Zealand has a long tradition of using light timber frame for construction of its domestic dwellings. After the most recent earthquakes (e.g. Canterbury earthquakes sequence), wooden residential houses showed satisfactory life safety performance. However, poor performance was reported in terms of their seismic resilience. Although numerous innovative methods to mitigate damage have been introduced to the New Zealand community in order to improve wooden house performance, these retrofit options have not been readily taken up. The low number of retrofitted wooden-framed houses leads to questions about whether homeowners are aware of the necessity of seismic retrofitting their houses to achieve a satisfactory seismic performance. This study aims to explore different retrofit technologies that can be applied to wooden-framed houses in Wellington, taking into account the need of homeowners to understand the risk, likelihood and extent of damage expected after an event. A survey will be conducted in Wellington about perceptions of homeowners towards the expected performance of their wooden-framed houses. The survey questions were designed to gain an understanding of homeowners' levels of safety and awareness of possible damage after a seismic event. Afterwards, a structural review of a sample of the houses will be undertaken to identify common features and detail potential seismic concerns. The findings will break down barriers to making improvements in the performance of wooden-framed houses and lead to enhancements in the confidence of homeowners in the event of future seismic activity. This will result in increased understanding and contribute towards an accessible knowledge base, which will possibly increase significantly the use of these technologies and avoid unnecessary economic and social costs after a seismic event.
This study investigates the uncertainty of simulated earthquake ground motions for smallmagnitude events (Mw 3.5 – 5) in Canterbury, New Zealand. 148 events were simulated with specified uncertainties in: event magnitude, hypocentre location, focal mechanism, high frequency rupture velocity, Brune stress parameter, the site 30-m time-averaged shear wave velocity (Vs30), anelastic attenuation (Q) and high frequency path duration. In order to capture these uncertainties, 25 realisations for each event were generated using the Graves and Pitarka (2015) hybrid broadband simulation approach. Monte-Carlo realisations were drawn from distributions for each uncertainty, to generate a suite of simulation realisations for each event and site. The fit of the multiple simulation realisations to observations were assessed using linear mixed effects regression to generate the systematic source, path and site effects components across all ground motion intensity measure residuals. Findings show that additional uncertainties are required in each of the three source, path, and site components, however the level of output uncertainty is promising considering the input uncertainties included.
For This Way Up's last shows, presenter Simon Morton and longtime producer Richard Scott have trawled through the archives of 600 shows recorded over the past (nearly) 13 years. This week, they mark the major seismic events that occurred during their time on the airwaves; the Christchurch and Kaikoura earthquakes.
A team of earthquake geologists, seismologists and engineering seismologists from GNS Science, NIWA, University of Canterbury, and Victoria University of Wellington have collectively produced an update of the 2002 national probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) model for New Zealand. The new model incorporates over 200 new onshore and offshore fault sources, and utilises newly developed New Zealand-based scaling relationships and methods for the parameterisation of the fault and subduction interface sources. The background seismicity model has also been updated to include new seismicity data, a new seismicity regionalisation, and improved methodology for calculation of the seismicity parameters. Background seismicity models allow for the occurrence of earthquakes away from the known fault sources, and are typically modelled as a grid of earthquake sources with rate parameters assigned from the historical seismicity catalogue. The Greendale Fault, which ruptured during the M7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield earthquake, was unknown prior to the earthquake. However, the earthquake was to some extent accounted for in the PSH model. The maximum magnitude assumed in the background seismicity model for the area of the earthquake is 7.2 (larger than the Darfield event), but the location and geometry of the fault are not represented. Deaggregations of the PSH model for Christchurch at return periods of 500 years and above show that M7-7.5 fault and background source-derived earthquakes at distances less than 40 km are important contributors to the hazard. Therefore, earthquakes similar to the Darfield event feature prominently in the PSH model, even though the Greendale Fault was not an explicit model input.
Seismically vulnerable buildings constitute a major problem for the safety of human beings. In many parts of the world, reinforced concrete (RC) frame buildings designed and constructed with substandard detailing, no consideration of capacity design principles, and improper or no inclusion of the seismic actions, have been identified. Amongst those vulnerable building, one particular typology representative of the construction practice of the years previous to the 1970’s, that most likely represents the worst case scenario, has been widely investigated in the past. The deficiencies of that building typology are related to non-ductile detailing in beam column joints such as the use of plain round bars, the lack of stirrups inside the joint around the longitudinal reinforcement of the column, the use of 180° end hooks in the beams, the use of lap splices in potential ‘plastic hinge’ regions, and substandard quality of the materials. That type of detailing and the lack of a capacity design philosophy create a very fragile fuse in the structure where brittle inelastic behaviour is expected to occur, which is the panel zone region of exterior beam column joints. The non-ductile typology described above was extensively investigated at the University of Canterbury in the context of the project ‘Retrofit Solutions for New Zealand Multi-Storey Buildings’ (2004-2011), founded by the ‘Foundation for Research, Science and Technology’ Tūāpapa Rangahau Pūtaiao. The experimental campaign prior to the research carried out by the author consisted of quasi-static tests of beam column joint subassemblies subjected to lateral loading regime, with constant and varying axial load in the column. Most of those specimens were representative of a plane 2D frame (knee joint), while others represented a portion of a space 3D frame (corner joints), and only few of them had a floor slab, transverse beams, and lap splices. Using those experiments, several feasible, cost-effective, and non-invasive retrofit techniques were developed, improved, and refined. Nevertheless, the slow motion nature of those experiments did not take into account the dynamical component inherent to earthquake related problems. Amongst the set of techniques investigated, the use of FRP layers for strengthening beam column joints is of particular interest due to its versatility and the momentum that its use has gained in the current state of the practice. That particular retrofit technique was previously used to develop a strengthening scheme suitable for plane 2D and space 3D corner beam column joints, but lacking of floor slabs. In addition, a similar scheme was not developed for exterior joints of internal frames, referred here as ‘cruciform’. In this research a 2/5 scale RC frame model building comprising of two frames in parallel (external and internal) joined together by means of floor slabs and transverse beams, with non-ductile characteristics identical to those of the specimens investigated previously by others, and also including lap splices, was developed. In order to investigate the dynamic response of that building, a series of shake table tests with different ground motions were performed. After the first series of tests, the specimen was modified by connecting the spliced reinforcement in the columns in order to capture a different failure mode. Ground motions recorded during seismic events that occurred during the initial period of the experimental campaign (2010) were used in the subsequent experiments. The hierarchy of strengths and sequence of events in the panel zone region were evaluated in an extended version of the bending moment-axial load (M-N) performance domain developed by others. That extension was required due to the asymmetry in the beam cross section introduced by the floor slab. In addition, the effect of the torsion resistance provided by the spandrel (transverse beam) was included. In order to upgrade the brittle and unstable performance of the as-built/repaired specimen, a practical and suitable ad-hoc FRP retrofit intervention was developed, following a partial retrofit strategy that aimed to strengthen exterior beam column joints only (corner and cruciform). The ability of the new FRP scheme to revert the sequence of events in the panel zone region was evaluated using the extended version of the M-N performance domain as well as the guidelines for strengthening plane joints developed by others. Weakening of the floor slab in a novel configuration was also incorporated with the purpose of reducing the flexural capacity of the beam under negative bending moment (slab in tension), enabling the damage relocation from the joint into the beam. The efficacy of the developed retrofit intervention in upgrading the seismic performance of the as-built specimen was investigated using shake table tests with the input motions used in the experiments of the as-built/repaired specimen. Numerical work aimed to predict the response of the model building during the most relevant shake table tests was carried out. By using a simple numerical model with concentrated plasticity elements constructed in Ruaumoko2D, the results of blind and post-experimental predictions of the response of the specimen were addressed. Differences in the predicted response of the building using the nominal and the actual recorded motions of the shake table were investigated. The dependence of the accuracy of the numerical predictions on the assumed values of the parameters that control the hysteresis rules of key structural members was reviewed. During the execution of the experimental campaign part of this thesis, two major earthquakes affected the central part of Chile (27 of February 2010 Maule earthquake) and the Canterbury region in New Zealand (22 February 2011 Canterbury earthquake), respectively. As the author had the opportunity to experience those events and investigate their consequences in structures, the observations related to non-ductile detailing and drawbacks in the state of the practice related to reinforced concrete walls was also addressed in this research, resulting in preliminary recommendations for the refinement of current seismic code provisions and assessment guidelines. The investigations of the ground motions recorded during those and other earthquakes were used to review the procedures related to the input motions used for nonlinear dynamic analysis of buildings as required by most of the current code provisions. Inelastic displacement spectra were constructed using ground motions recorded during the earthquakes mentioned above, in order to investigate the adequacy of modification factors used to obtain reduced design spectra from elastic counterparts. Finally a simplified assessment procedure for RC walls that incorporates capacity compatible spectral demands is proposed.
In 2016, the Building (Earthquake-prone Buildings) Amendment Act 2016 was introduced to address the issue of seismic vulnerability amongst existing buildings in Aotearoa New Zealand. This Act introduced a mandatory scheme to remediate buildings deemed particularly vulnerable to seismic hazard, as recommended by the 2012 Royal Commission into the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010–2011. This Earthquake-prone Building (EPB) framework is unusual internationally for the mandatory obligations that it introduces. This article explores and critiques the operation of the scheme in practice through an examination of its implementation provisions and the experiences of more recent seismic events (confirmed by engineering research). This analysis leads to the conclusion that the operation of the current scheme and particularly the application of the concept of EPB vulnerability excludes large numbers of (primarily urban) buildings which pose a significant risk in the event of a significant (but expected) seismic event. As a result, the EPB scheme fails to achieve its goals and instead may create a false impression that it does so
A preliminary case study assessing the seismic sustainability of two reinforced concrete structures, a frame structure and a wall structure, was conducted to determine which structural system is more seismically sustainable. The two structures were designed to the same standards and were assumed to be located in Christchurch, New Zealand. A component-based probabilistic seismic loss assessment, considering direct losses only, was conducted for two ground motion records, regarded to approximately represent a 1 in 500 year earthquake event and a 1 in 2500 year earthquake event, respectively. It is shown that the wall structure results in lower direct losses than the frame structure in the less severe ground motion scenario. However, in the more severe ground motion scenario, the frame structure results in lower direct losses. Hence, this study demonstrates that which structural system has the lower direct losses depends on the ground motion intensity level.
New Zealand has a long tradition of using light timber frame for construction of its domestic dwellings. After the most recent earthquakes (e.g. Canterbury earthquakes sequence), wooden residential houses showed satisfactory life safety performance which aligns with New Zealand design codes requirements. However, poor performance was reported in terms of their seismic resilience that can be generally associated with community demands. Future expectations of the seismic performance of wooden-framed houses by homeowners were assessed in this research. Homeowners in the Wellington region were asked in a survey about the levels of safety and expected possible damage in their houses after a seismic event. Findings bring questions about whether New Zealand code requirements are good enough to satisfy community demands. Also, questions whether available information of strengthening techniques to structurally prepare wooden-framed houses to face future major earthquakes can help to make homeowners feel safer at home during major seismic events.
This paper examines the consistency of seismicity and ground motion models, used for seismic hazard analysis in New Zealand, with the observations in the Canterbury earthquakes. An overview is first given of seismicity and ground motion modelling as inputs of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, whose results form the basis for elastic response spectra in NZS1170.5:2004. The magnitude of earthquakes in the Canterbury earthquake sequence are adequately allowed for in the current NZ seismicity model, however the consideration of ‘background’ earthquakes as point sources at a minimum depth of 10km results in up to a 60% underestimation of the ground motions that such events produce. The ground motion model used in conventional NZ seismic hazard analysis is shown to provide biased predictions of response spectra (over-prediction near T=0.2s , and under-predictions at moderate-to-large vibration periods). Improved ground motion prediction can be achieved using more recent NZ-specific models.
This study provides an initial examination of source parameter uncertainty in a New Zealand ground motion simulation model, by simulating multiple event realisations with perturbed source parameters. Small magnitude events in Canterbury have been selected for this study due to the small number of source input parameters, the wealth of recorded data, and the lack of appreciable off-fault non-linear effects. Which provides greater opportunity to identify systematic source, path and site effects, required to robustly investigate the causes of uncertainty.
This thesis documents the development and demonstration of an assessment method for analysing earthquake-related damage to concrete waste water gravity pipes in Christchurch, New Zealand, following the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES). The method is intended to be internationally adaptable to assist territorial local authorities with improving lifelines infrastructure disaster impact assessment and improvements in resilience. This is achieved through the provision of high-resolution, localised damage data, which demonstrate earthquake impacts along the pipe length. The insights gained will assist decision making and the prioritisation of resources following earthquake events to quickly and efficiently restore network function and reduce community impacts. The method involved obtaining a selection of 55 reinforced concrete gravity waste water pipes with available Closed-Circuit Television (CCTV) inspection footage filmed before and after the CES. The pipes were assessed by reviewing the recordings, and damage was mapped to the nearest metre along the pipe length using Geographic Information Systems. An established, systematic coding process was used for reporting the nature and severity of the observed damage, and to differentiate between pre-existing and new damage resulting from the CES. The damage items were overlaid with geospatial data such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)-derived ground deformation data, Liquefaction Resistance Index data and seismic ground motion data (Peak Ground acceleration and Peak Ground Velocity) to identify potential relationships between these parameters and pipe performance. Initial assessment outcomes for the pipe selection revealed that main pipe joints and lateral connections were more vulnerable than the pipe body during a seismic event. Smaller diameter pipes may also be more vulnerable than larger pipes during a seismic event. Obvious differential ground movement resulted in increased local damage observations in many cases, however this was not obvious for all pipes. Pipes with older installation ages exhibited more overall damage prior to a seismic event, which is likely attributable to increased chemical and biological deterioration. However, no evidence was found relating pipe age to performance during a seismic event. No evidence was found linking levels of pre-CES damage in a pipe with subsequent seismic performance, and seismic performance with liquefaction resistance or magnitude of seismic ground motion. The results reported are of limited application due to the small demonstration sample size, but reveal the additional level of detail and insight possible using the method presented in this thesis over existing assessment methods, especially in relation to high resolution variations along the length of the pipe such as localised ground deformations evidenced by LiDAR. The results may be improved by studying a larger and more diverse sample pool, automating data collection and input processes in order to improve efficiency and consider additional input such as pipe dip and cumulative damage over a large distance. The method is dependent on comprehensive and accurate pre-event CCTV assessments and LIDAR data so that post-event data could be compared. It is proposed that local territorial authorities should prioritise acquiring this information as a first important step towards improving the seismic resilience of a gravity waste water pipe network.
This thesis documents the development and demonstration of an assessment method for analysing earthquake-related damage to concrete waste water gravity pipes in Christchurch, New Zealand, following the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES). The method is intended to be internationally adaptable to assist territorial local authorities with improving lifelines infrastructure disaster impact assessment and improvements in resilience. This is achieved through the provision of high-resolution, localised damage data, which demonstrate earthquake impacts along the pipe length. The insights gained will assist decision making and the prioritisation of resources following earthquake events to quickly and efficiently restore network function and reduce community impacts. The method involved obtaining a selection of 55 reinforced concrete gravity waste water pipes with available Closed-Circuit Television (CCTV) inspection footage filmed before and after the CES. The pipes were assessed by reviewing the recordings, and damage was mapped to the nearest metre along the pipe length using Geographic Information Systems. An established, systematic coding process was used for reporting the nature and severity of the observed damage, and to differentiate between pre-existing and new damage resulting from the CES. The damage items were overlaid with geospatial data such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)-derived ground deformation data, Liquefaction Resistance Index data and seismic ground motion data (Peak Ground acceleration and Peak Ground Velocity) to identify potential relationships between these parameters and pipe performance. Initial assessment outcomes for the pipe selection revealed that main pipe joints and lateral connections were more vulnerable than the pipe body during a seismic event. Smaller diameter pipes may also be more vulnerable than larger pipes during a seismic event. Obvious differential ground movement resulted in increased local damage observations in many cases, however this was not obvious for all pipes. Pipes with older installation ages exhibited more overall damage prior to a seismic event, which is likely attributable to increased chemical and biological deterioration. However, no evidence was found relating pipe age to performance during a seismic event. No evidence was found linking levels of pre-CES damage in a pipe with subsequent seismic performance, and seismic performance with liquefaction resistance or magnitude of seismic ground motion. The results reported are of limited application due to the small demonstration sample size, but reveal the additional level of detail and insight possible using the method presented in this thesis over existing assessment methods, especially in relation to high resolution variations along the length of the pipe such as localised ground deformations evidenced by LiDAR. The results may be improved by studying a larger and more diverse sample pool, automating data collection and input processes in order to improve efficiency and consider additional input such as pipe dip and cumulative damage over a large distance. The method is dependent on comprehensive and accurate pre-event CCTV assessments and LIDAR data so that post-event data could be compared. It is proposed that local territorial authorities should prioritise acquiring this information as a first important step towards improving the seismic resilience of a gravity waste water pipe network.
Predicting building collapse due to seismic motion is critical in design and more so after a major event. Damaged structures can appear sound, but collapse under following major events. There can thus be significant risk in decision making after a major seismic event concerning the safe occupation of a building or surrounding areas, versus the unknown impact of unknown major aftershocks. Model-based pushover analyses are effective if the structural properties are well understood, which is not valid post-event when this risk information is most useful. This research combines Hysteresis Loop Analysis (HLA) structural health monitoring (SHM) and Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) methods to determine collapse capacity and probability of collapse for a specific structure, at any time, a range of earthquake excitations to ensure robustness. The nonlinear dynamic analysis method presented enables constant updating of building performance predictions using post-event SHM results. The resulting combined methods provide near real-time updating of collapse fragility curves as events progress, quantifying the change of collapse probability or seismic induced losses for decision-making - a novel, higher resolution risk analysis than previously available. The methods are not computationally expensive and there is no requirement for a validated numerical model. Results show significant potential benefits and a clear evolution of risk. They also show clear need for extending SHM toward creating improved predictive models for analysis of subsequent events, where the Christchurch series of 2010-2011 had significant post-event aftershocks after each main event. Finally, the overall method is generalisable to any typical engineering demand parameter.
Rapid, reliable information on earthquake-affected structures' current damage/health conditions and predicting what would happen to these structures under future seismic events play a vital role in accelerating post-event evaluations, leading to optimized on-time decisions. Such rapid and informative post-event evaluations are crucial for earthquake-prone areas, where each earthquake can potentially trigger a series of significant aftershocks, endangering the community's health and wealth by further damaging the already-affected structures. Such reliable post-earthquake evaluations can provide information to decide whether an affected structure is safe to stay in operation, thus saving many lives. Furthermore, they can lead to more optimal recovery plans, thus saving costs and time. The inherent deficiency of visual-based post-earthquake evaluations and the importance of structural health monitoring (SHM) methods and SHM instrumentation have been highlighted within this thesis, using two earthquake-affected structures in New Zealand: 1) the Canterbury Television (CTV) building, Christchurch; 2) the Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) building, Wellington. For the first time, this thesis verifies the theoretically- and experimentally validated hysteresis loop analysis (HLA) SHM method for the real-world instrumented structure of the BNZ building, which was damaged severely due to three earthquakes. Results indicate the HLA-SHM method can accurately estimate elastic stiffness degradation for this reinforced concrete (RC) pinched structure across the three earthquakes, which remained unseen until after the third seismic event. Furthermore, the HLA results help investigate the pinching effects on the BNZ building's seismic response. This thesis introduces a novel digital clone modelling method based on the robust and accurate SHM results delivered by the HLA method for physical parameters of the monitored structure and basis functions predicting the changes of these physical parameters due to future earthquake excitations. Contrary to artificial intelligence (AI) based predictive methods with black-box designs, the proposed predictive method is entirely mechanics-based with an explicitly-understandable design, making them more trusted and explicable to stakeholders engaging in post-earthquake evaluations, such as building owners and insurance firms. The proposed digital clone modelling framework is validated using the BNZ building and an experimental RC test structure damaged severely due to three successive shake-table excitations. In both structures, structural damage intensifies the pinching effects in hysteresis responses. Results show the basis functions identified from the HLA-SHM results for both structures under Event 1 can online estimate structural damage due to subsequent Events 2-3 from the measured structural responses, making them valuable tool for rapid warning systems. Moreover, the digital twins derived for these two structures under Event 1 can successfully predict structural responses and damage under Events 2-3, which can be integrated with the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method to assess structural collapse and its financial risks. Furthermore, it enables multi-step IDA to evaluate earthquake series' impacts on structures. Overall, this thesis develops an efficient method for providing reliable information on earthquake-affected structures' current and future status during or immediately after an earthquake, considerably guaranteeing safety. Significant validation is implemented against both experimental and real data of RC structures, which thus clearly indicate the accurate predictive performance of this HLA-based method.
Natural catastrophes are increasing worldwide. They are becoming more frequent but also more severe and impactful on our built environment leading to extensive damage and losses. Earthquake events account for the smallest part of natural events; nevertheless seismic damage led to the most fatalities and significant losses over the period 1981-2016 (Munich Re). Damage prediction is helpful for emergency management and the development of earthquake risk mitigation projects. Recent design efforts focused on the application of performance-based design engineering where damage estimation methodologies use fragility and vulnerability functions. However, the approach does not explicitly specify the essential criteria leading to economic losses. There is thus a need for an improved methodology that finds the critical building elements related to significant losses. The here presented methodology uses data science techniques to identify key building features that contribute to the bulk of losses. It uses empirical data collected on site during earthquake reconnaissance mission to train a machine learning model that can further be used for the estimation of building damage post-earthquake. The first model is developed for Christchurch. Empirical building damage data from the 2010-2011 earthquake events is analysed to find the building features that contributed the most to damage. Once processed, the data is used to train a machine-learning model that can be applied to estimate losses in future earthquake events.