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Research Papers, Lincoln University

Tourism is New Zealand’s fourth largest industry, providing jobs for thousands of New Zealanders and significant foreign capital for the nation’s economy. Of concern to ministry and industry decision makers is the “spatial yield” of these tourists which takes into account the spatial and temporal contributions of their movements in terms of economic, cultural and environmental impacts. We have developed an agent-based model of tourism movements to simulate these impacts and to allow for the evaluation of different scenarios (such as increases in petrol prices or variations in currency exchange rates) on the behaviours of those tourists. In order to develop realistic and grounded heuristics for the model, interview protocols were developed in order to identify the key drivers in tourists’ decision making process.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Natural hazards continue to have adverse effects on communities and households worldwide, accelerating research on proactively identifying and enhancing characteristics associated with resilience. Although resilience is often characterized as a return to normal, recent studies of postdisaster recovery have highlighted the ways in which new opportunities can emerge following disruption, challenging the status quo. Conversely, recovery and reconstruction may serve to reinforce preexisting social, institutional, and development pathways. Our understanding of these dynamics is limited however by the small number of practice examples, particularly for rural communities in developed nations. This study uses a social–ecological inventory to document the drivers, pathways, and mechanisms of resilience following a large-magnitude earthquake in Kaikōura, a coastal community in Aotearoa New Zealand. As part of the planning and implementation phase of a multiyear project, we used the tool as the basis for indepth and contextually sensitive analysis of rural resilience. Moreover, the deliberate application of social–ecological inventory was the first step in the research team reengaging with the community following the event. The inventory process provided an opportunity for research partners to share their stories and experiences and develop a shared understanding of changes that had taken place in the community. Results provide empirical insight into reactions to disruptive change associated with disasters. The inventory also informed the design of targeted research collaborations, established a platform for longer-term community engagement, and provides a baseline for assessing longitudinal changes in key resilience-related characteristics and community capacities. Findings suggest the utility of social–ecological inventory goes beyond natural resource management, and that it may be appropriate in a range of contexts where institutional, social, and economic restructuring have developed out of necessity in response to felt or anticipated external stressors.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The cartoon shows the word 'Christchurch' fractured by earthquake. Text above reads 'The new tear(s)'. A second version has the text in the singular 'The new tear'. Context: In spite of Christchurch's great hopes for a new year without earthquakes, there have been numerous quakes and aftershocks. A wordplay on 'new year' and 'new tear' - that is weeping with fear and dismay. Two versions of this cartoon are available Quantity: 2 digital cartoon(s).

Research Papers, Lincoln University

As far as suburbs with bad reputations go, Aranui in Christchurch often seems to dominate local public perceptions. High crime, high unemployment, low incomes, run-down state houses and uncared-for neighbourhoods have been the key words and phrases used over many decades. This reputation achieved national standing over the same period and in 2001 Aranui gained the dubious distinction of becoming the pilot project for the Labour Government’s state housing Community Renewal Programme initiated in 2001. It is common to read “Don’t buy or rent here” comments on websites and blogs advising prospective immigrants on where to live. One of the dispiriting moments in Aranui’s history came in September 2009 with the discovery of two bodies under the floorboards of a Hampshire Street property and the subsequent charge of double-homicide and conviction of local resident Jason Somerville for the murder of his wife Rebecca Chamberlain and neighbour Tisha Lowry.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

This article reports on a study of community attitudes to cruise tourism in Akaroa, New Zealand. An important dimension of this study is the significant rate of growth in cruise arrivals over a short period of time as the result of the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes. Data were collected via a postal survey of the Akaroa community, and yielded a response rate of 56.6% (n = 316). The results indicate that despite the recent growth in arrivals, the Akaroa community holds a largely favorable opinion of cruise tourism. Importantly, the impacts identified by respondents were more closely aligned to threats to their identity as a destination, rather than problems with tourism, per se.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

We examined the stratigraphy of alluvial fans formed at the steep range front of the Southern Alps at Te Taho, on the north bank of the Whataroa River in central West Coast, South Island, New Zealand. The range front coincides with the Alpine Fault, an Australian-Pacific plate boundary fault, which produces regular earthquakes. Our study of range front fans revealed aggradation at 100- to 300-year intervals. Radiocarbon ages and soil residence times (SRTs) estimated by a quantitative profile development index allowed us to elucidate the characteristics of four episodes of aggradation since 1000 CE. We postulate a repeating mode of fan behaviour (fan response cycle [FRC]) linked to earthquake cycles via earthquake-triggered landslides. FRCs are characterised by short response time (aggradation followed by incision) and a long phase when channels are entrenched and fan surfaces are stable (persistence time). Currently, the Te Taho and Whataroa River fans are in the latter phase. The four episodes of fan building we determined from an OxCal sequence model correlate to Alpine Fault earthquakes (or other subsidiary events) and support prior landscape evolution studies indicating ≥M7.5 earthquakes as the main driver of episodic sedimentation. Our findings are consistent with other historic non-earthquake events on the West Coast but indicate faster responses than other earthquake sites in New Zealand and elsewhere where rainfall and stream gradients (the basis for stream power) are lower. Judging from the thickness of fan deposits and the short response times, we conclude that pastoral farming (current land-use) on the fans and probably across much of the Whataroa River fan would be impossible for several decades after a major earthquake. The sustainability of regional tourism and agriculture is at risk, more so because of the vulnerability of the single through road in the region (State Highway 6).

Research Papers, Lincoln University

This research provides an investigation into the impact on the North Island freight infrastructure, in the event of a disruption of the Ports of Auckland (POAL). This research is important to New Zealand, especially having experienced the Canterbury earthquake disaster in 2010/2011 and the current 2012 industrial action plaguing the POAL. New Zealand is a net exporter of a combination of manufactured high value goods, commodity products and raw materials. New Zealand’s main challenge lies in the fact of its geographical distances to major markets. Currently New Zealand handles approximately 2 million containers per annum, with a minimum of ~40% of those containers being shipped through POAL. It needs to be highlighted that POAL is classified as an import port in comparison to Port of Tauranga (POT) that has traditionally had an export focus. This last fact is of great importance, as in a case of a disruption of the POAL, any import consigned to the Auckland and northern region will need to be redirected through POT in a quick and efficient way to reach Auckland and the northern regions. This may mean a major impact on existing infrastructure and supply chain systems that are currently in place. This study is critical as an element of risk management, looking at how to mitigate the risk to the greater Auckland region. With the new Super City taking hold, the POAL is a fundamental link in the supply chain to the largest metropolitan area within New Zealand.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The study contributes to a better understanding of utilisation and interaction patterns in post-disaster temporary urban open spaces. A series of devastating earthquakes caused large scale damage to Christchurch’s central city and many suburbs in 2010 and 2011. Various temporary uses have emerged on vacant post-earthquake sites including community gardens, urban agriculture, art installations, event venues, eateries and cafés, and pocket parks. Drawing on empirical data obtained from a spatial qualities survey and a Public Life Study, the report analyses how people used and interacted with three exemplary transitional community-initiated open spaces (CIOS) in relation to particular physical spatial qualities in central Christchurch over a period of three weeks. The report provides evidence that users of post-disaster transitional community-initiated open spaces show similar utilisation and interaction patterns in relation to specific spatial qualities as observed in other urban environments. The temporary status of CIOS did apparently not influence ‘typical’ utilisation and interaction patterns.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We measure the longer-term effect of a major earthquake on the local economy, using night-time light intensity measured from space, and investigate whether insurance claim payments for damaged residential property affected the local recovery process. We focus on the destructive Christchurch earthquake of 2011 as our case study. In this event more than 95% of residential housing units were covered by insurance, but insurance payments were staggered over 5 years, enabling us to identify their local impact. We find that night-time luminosity can capture the process of recovery and describe the recovery’s determinants. We also find that insurance payments contributed significantly to the process of economic recovery after the earthquake, but delayed payments were less affective and cash settlement of claims were more affective in contributing to local recovery than insurance-managed rebuilding.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The Tourism Industry Association New Zealand’s (TIA) annual State of the Tourism Sector 2012 has been prepared in partnership with Lincoln University. The objective of this is to understand better how the tourism sector sees its future and what challenges and opportunities lie ahead in both the short and longer term. State of the Tourism Sector 2012 provides a current view of the tourism sector for those within the industry and for external stakeholders who have an interest in tourism in New Zealand.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

This thesis investigates landscape disturbance history in Westland since 1350 AD. Specifically, I test the hypothesis that large-magnitude regional episodes of natural disturbance have periodically devastated portions of the landscape and forest, and that these were caused by infrequent earthquakes along the Alpine Fault. Forest stand history reconstruction was used to determine the timing and extent of erosion and sedimentation events that initiated new forest cohorts in a 1412 ha study area in the Karangarua River catchment, south Westland. Over 85 % of the study area was disturbed sufficiently by erosion/sedimentation since 1350 AD to initiate new forest cohorts. During this time four episodes of catchment-wide disturbance impacted the study area, and these took place about 1825 AD ± 5 years (Ruera episode), 1715 AD ± 5 years (Sparkling episode), 1615 AD ± 5 years (McTaggart episode), and 1445 AD ± 15 years (Junction episode). The three most recent episodes disturbed 10 %, 35-40 % and 32-50 % respectively of the study area. The Junction episode disturbed at least 6 % of the study area, but elimination of evidence by more recent disturbances prevented an upper limit being defined. The three earliest episodes correspond to the date-ranges for three Alpine Fault earthquakes from geological data, and are the only episodes of disturbance within each date-range. An earthquake cause is also consistent with features of the disturbance record: large portions of the study area were disturbed, disturbance occurred on all types 'of landforms, and terrace surfaces were abandoned upstream of the Alpine Fault. On this basis erosion/sedimentation induced by Alpine Fault earthquakes has disturbed 14-20 % of the land surface in the study area per century. Storms and other non-seismic erosional processes have disturbed 3-4 % per century. To examine the importance of the Alpine Fault earthquakes to forest disturbance throughout Westland, I collated all available data on conifer stand age structures in the region and identified dates of disturbance events from 55 even-aged cohorts of trees. Three region-wide episodes of forest disturbance since 1350 AD were found in this sample, and these matched the three Alpine Fault earthquake-caused episodes found in the Karangarua. Forest disturbance at these times was widespread across Westland over at least 200 km from Paringa to Hokitika, and originated from both tree fall and erosion processes. This disturbance history can explain the long-observed regional conifer forest pattern in Westland, of a predominance of similar-sized stands of trees and a relative lack of small-sized (young) stands. The many similar-sized stands are a consequence of synchronous forest disturbance and re-establishment accompanying the infrequent Alpine Fault earthquakes, while the dominance of mature stands of trees and relative lack of young small-sized trees in stands is explained by the long lapsed time since the last Alpine Fault earthquake (c. 280 years). I applied the landscape disturbance history information to the existing geological data to reconstruct the paleoseismicity of the Alpine Fault since 1350 AD. Best estimates for the timing of the most recent three rupture events from these data are 1715 AD ± 5 years, 1615 AD ± 5 years and 1445 AD ± 15 years. Earthquake recurrence intervals were variable, ranging from about 100 years to at least 280 years (the lapsed time since the last event). All three events caused forest and geomorphic disturbance over at least a 200 km section of Fault between the Karangarua and Hokitika Rivers, and were probably single rupture events. Suppressions in cross dated tree-ring chronologies in the western South Island suggest that the last rupture occurred in 1717 AD, and extended as a single rupture from Haupiri to Fiordland, a distance along the Fault of 375 km.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Christchurch City has to be rebuilt after the earthquakes of 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011. People are being invited to contribute ideas about how to rebuild on a city council website. A group of people look at ideas on computers; a boy comments that 'this one looks just like the old city' and his father comments 'but built fifty miles up the road!' A woman looks at what appears to be pre European Maori pa site and says 'Hone Harawira wants something pre-European!' Another woman looks at a map of the middle of the South Island and says 'Rodney Hide doesn't care as long as Christchurch combines with Timaru and Westport!' Context - Former ACT leader Rodney Hide in his role as Minister for Local Government likes 'supercities' and Hone Harawira has left the Maori Party, fed up with the compromises he believes they have to make to suit their coalition agreement with the National government. He seems to prefer a city that will reflect simpler pre-European times. Colour and black and white versions available Quantity: 2 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

A ship named 'NZ Ship of State' lies high and dry on rocks; the great jagged holes in her represent 'the recession', 'Pike River', 'Chch 1' and 'Chch 2'. A man standing nearby asks 'How will we refloat her?' and a second man answers '...by cutting Working for Families & interest-free student loans' Someone outside the frame says 'Where's the No. 8 wire?' Context - The New Zealand economy was stagnating before the impact of the Christchurch earthquakes of 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011 and the Pike River Mine disaster before that. The government was already considering cutting Working for Families & interest-free student loans before the earthquakes struck and it seems that now they are trying to push through these policy changes using the earthquakes as an excuse. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The cartoon shows New Zealand's flag but it has lost one of its four stars. Down in the lower right corner a group of rescue workers using cranes, a cherry picker and a long ladder have pulled the fourth star out of the rubble and are replacing it on the flag. Context - on 22 February 2011 a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck in Christchurch which killed 185 people and caused very severe damage. Colour and black and white versions of this cartoon are available Quantity: 2 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Four cartoons in the same frame commenting on news and happenings in the week ending 15 December 2011. The cartoons refer to the expulsion of the controversial Member of Parliament, Brendan Horan, from the New Zealand First Party by its leader, Winston Peters; the stereotyping of New Zealand as being 'Middle Earth' following the filming of 'The Hobbit', punned as 'The Habbit'; the lax attitude to building design and standards, which led to the CTV Building disaster in the Christchurch earthquake; the news about the New Zealand SPCA teaching dogs to drive. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research Papers, Lincoln University

‘Housing affordability’ has been a term used to refer to a problem that arises when the costs of housing are seen as being unreasonably high in relation to incomes. In the United Kingdom and Australia the local town planning systems have been used to address housing affordability issues. This response in countries that share New Zealand’s town and country planning history raised the question for this research of the local government response to housing affordability issues in the city of Christchurch, New Zealand. This research was undertaken during the fifth year after the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquake series. Research conducted by the Centre for Housing Research Aotearoa New Zealand and the New Zealand Productivity Commission present quite different pictures of the housing affordability problem, suggest different solutions and indicate different roles for levels of government, the community housing sector and the housing market. The research undertaken for this dissertation aimed to address the question of the role of the state, through the lense of a local response to housing affordability issues, in the context of a central government response focused on land supply and reforming the Resource Management Act 1991.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The 2013 Seddon earthquake (Mw 6.5), the 2013 Lake Grassmere earthquake (Mw 6.6), and the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake (Mw 7.8) provided an opportunity to assemble the most extensive damage database to wine storage tanks ever compiled worldwide. An overview of this damage database is presented herein based on the in-field post-earthquake damage data collected for 2058 wine storage tanks (1512 legged tanks and 546 flat-based tanks) following the 2013 earthquakes and 1401 wine storage tanks (599 legged tanks and 802 flat-based tanks) following the 2016 earthquake. Critique of the earthquake damage database revealed that in 2013, 39% and 47% of the flat-based wine tanks sustained damage to their base shells and anchors respectively, while due to resilience measures implemented following the 2013 earthquakes, in the 2016 earthquake the damage to tank base shells and tank anchors of flat-based wine tanks was reduced to 32% and 23% respectively and instead damage to tank barrels (54%) and tank cones (43%) was identified as the two most frequently occurring damage modes for this type of tank. Analysis of damage data for legged wine tanks revealed that the frame-legs of legged wine tanks sustained the greatest damage percentage among different parts of legged tanks in both the 2013 earthquakes (40%) and in the 2016 earthquake (44%). Analysis of damage data and socio-economic findings highlight the need for industry-wide standards, which may have socio-economic implications for wineries.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The arms of a woman who represents New Zealand reach out to a baby to whom she has just given birth. The baby represents '2011' and is a particularly hideous specimen. The doctor who holds the baby says 'He's cute now but wait 'til he gets older!' Outside the window is seen a cracked and damaged landscape and a storm rages; the headstone of a grave reads 'RIP 2010'. Context - Christchurch or maybe the South Island have had a bad year because of the Pike River Mine disaster and the earthquake of 4 September 2010. There is perhaps prescience in this cartoon because on 22 February 2011 a much worse earthquake hit Christchurch. Published in The Press Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research Papers, Lincoln University

On November 14, 2016 an earthquake struck the rural districts of Kaikōura and Hurunui on New Zealand’s South Island. The region—characterized by small dispersed communities, a local economy based on tourism and agriculture, and limited transportation connections—was severely impacted. Following the quake, road and rail networks essential to maintaining steady flows of goods, visitors, and services were extensively damaged, leaving agrifood producers with significant logistical challenges, resulting in reduced productivity and problematic market access. Regional tourism destinations also suffered with changes to the number, characteristics, and travel patterns of visitors. As the region recovers, there is renewed interest in the development and promotion of agrifood tourism and trails as a pathway for enhancing rural resilience, and a growing awareness of the importance of local networks. Drawing on empirical evidence and insights from a range of affected stakeholders, including food producers, tourism operators, and local government, we explore the significance of emerging agrifood tourism initiatives for fostering diversity, enhancing connectivity, and building resilience in the context of rural recovery. We highlight the motivation to diversify distribution channels for agrifood producers, and strengthen the region’s tourism place identity. Enhancing product offerings and establishing better links between different destinations within the region are seen as essential. While such trends are common in rural regions globally, we suggest that stakeholders’ shared experience with the earthquake and its aftermath has opened up new opportunities for regeneration and reimagination, and has influenced current agrifood tourism trajectories. In particular, additional funding for tourism recovery marketing and product development after the earthquake, and an emphasis on greater connectivity between the residents and communities through strengthening rural networks and building social capital within and between regions, is enabling more resilient and sustainable futures.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Creative temporary or transitional use of vacant urban open spaces is seldom foreseen in traditional urban planning and has historically been linked to economic or political disturbances. Christchurch, like most cities, has had a relatively small stock of vacant spaces throughout much of its history. This changed dramatically after an earthquake and several damaging aftershocks hit the city in 2010 and 2011; temporary uses emerged on post-earthquake sites that ran parallel to the “official” rebuild discourse and programmes of action. The paper examines a post-earthquake transitional community-initiated open space (CIOS) in central Christchurch. CIOS have been established by local community groups as bottom-up initiatives relying on financial sponsorship, agreements with local landowners who leave their land for temporary projects until they are ready to redevelop, and volunteers who build and maintain the spaces. The paper discusses bottom-up governance approaches in depth in a single temporary post-earthquake community garden project using the concepts of community resilience and social capital. The study analyses and highlights the evolution and actions of the facilitating community organisation (Greening the Rubble) and the impact of this on the project. It discusses key actors’ motivations and values, perceived benefits and challenges, and their current involvement with the garden. The paper concludes with observations and recommendations about the initiation of such projects and the challenges for those wishing to study ephemeral social recovery phenomena.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

In the last two decades, the retail sector has experienced unprecedented upheaval, having severe implications for economic development and sustenance of traditional inner-city retail districts. In the city of Christchurch, New Zealand, this effect has been exacerbated by a series of earthquakes in 2010/2011 which destroyed much of the traditional retail precinct of the city. After extensive rebuild activity of the city’s infrastructure, the momentum of retailers returning to the inner city was initially sluggish but eventually gathered speed supported by increased international visitation. In early 2020, the return to retail normality came to an abrupt halt after the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study uses spending and transaction data to analyze the compounding impact of the earthquake’s aftermath, shift to online shopping, and the retail disruption in the Christchurch central retail precinct because of COVID-19. The findings illustrate how consumers through their spending respond to different types of external shocks, altering their consumption patterns and retail mode (offline and online) to cope with an ever-changing retail landscape. Each event triggers different spending patterns that have some similarities but also stark differences, having implications for a sustainable and resilient retail industry in Christchurch. Implications for urban retail precinct development are also discussed.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text reads 'New Chch subdivision?...' The cartoon shows a very snowy scene with several igloos; The subdivision is called 'Igloo Park' and the sign says 'Polar packages available'. Context: Christchurch, after being battered by the February 22 earthquake, the June 13 aftershock and last month's snowstorm have had another week of snow. The cartoon suggests that new subdivisions, necessary because of the earthquakes, could be filled with igloos. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text reads 'Bad news for Christchurch playing fields'. On the left is a man wearing the Canterbury colours and carrying a flag; he looks most upset about the 'AMI Stadium' being red stickered. On the right is a woman of the night in fishnet stockings and a very short skirt who looks very upset as she hears that 'Manchester Street' has been red stickered. The little Evans man in the corner says 'Red light, red carded, from the red zone'. Context - The AMI Stadium was supposed to be the venue for the Rugby World Cup in Christchurch - a decision made on 16 March was made that Christchurch was not in a position to host the RWC. With Manchester St on the city side of Bealey Ave cordoned off, street workers have been working from the residential area between Bealey and Purchas St. and residents are furious. Colour and black and white versions of this cartoon are available Quantity: 2 digital cartoon(s).