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Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The south Leader Fault (SLF) is a newly documented active structure that ruptured the surface during the Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake. The Leader Fault is a NNE trending oblique left lateral thrust that links the predominantly right lateral ‘The Humps’ and Conway-Charwell faults. The present research uses LiDAR at 0.5 m resolution and field mapping to determine the factors controlling the surface geometries and kinematics of the south Leader Fault ruptures at the ground surface. The SLF zone is up to 2km wide and comprises a series of echelon NE-striking thrusts linked by near-vertical N-S striking faults. The thrusts are upthrown to the west by up to 1 m and dip 35-45°. Thrust slip surfaces are parallel with Cretaceous-Cenozoic bedding and may reflect flexural slip folding. By contrast, the northerly striking faults dip steeply (65° west- 85° east), and accommodate up to 3m of oblique left lateral displacement at the ground surface and displace Cenozoic bedding. Some of the SLF has been mapped in bedrock, although none were known to be active prior to the earthquake or have a strong topographic expression. The complexity of fault rupture and the width of the fault zone appears to reflect the occurrence of faulting and folding at the ground surface during the earthquake.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Surface rupture of the previously unrecognised Greendale Fault extended west-east for ~30 km across alluvial plains west of Christchurch, New Zealand, during the Mw 7.1 Darfield (Canterbury) earthquake of September 2010. Surface rupture displacement was predominantly dextral strike-slip, averaging ~2.5 m, with maxima of ~5 m. Vertical displacement was generally less than 0.75 m. The surface rupture deformation zone ranged in width from ~30 to 300 m, and comprised discrete shears, localised bulges and, primarily, horizontal dextral flexure. About a dozen buildings, mainly single-storey houses and farm sheds, were affected by surface rupture, but none collapsed, largely because most of the buildings were relatively flexible and resilient timber-framed structures and also because deformation was distributed over a relatively wide zone. There were, however, notable differences in the respective performances of the buildings. Houses with only lightly-reinforced concrete slab foundations suffered moderate to severe structural and non-structural damage. Three other buildings performed more favourably: one had a robust concrete slab foundation, another had a shallow-seated pile foundation that isolated ground deformation from the superstructure, and the third had a structural system that enabled the house to tilt and rotate as a rigid body. Roads, power lines, underground pipes, and fences were also deformed by surface fault rupture and suffered damage commensurate with the type of feature, its orientation to the fault, and the amount, sense and width of surface rupture deformation.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

A man representing 'Chch' (Christchurch) walks a tightrope between two cliffs. Suddenly below there are piles of dollar notes from the 'AMI' and he says 'A safety net at last!' Context - Christchurch earthquake problems with insurance. Insurers are saying that they will only pay for repairs for houses in the Red zone that are destined for demolition but that are relatively undamaged. Maybe the cartoon is expressing an ironic response to AMI's 'total replacement' policy. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

This thesis revisits the topic of earthquake recovery in Christchurch City more than a decade after the Canterbury earthquakes. Despite promising visions of a community reconnected and a sustainable and liveable city, significant portions of the city’s core – the Red Zone – remain dilapidated and “eerily empty”. At the same time, new developments in other areas have proven to be alienated or underutilised. Currently, the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority’s plans for the rebuilding highlight the delivery of more residential housing to re-populate the city centre. However, prevalent approaches to housing development in Christchurch are ineffective for building an inclusive and active community. Hence, the central inquiry of the thesis is how the development of housing complexes can revitalise the Red Zone within the Christchurch city centre. The inquiry has been carried out through a research-through-design methodology, recognising the importance of an in-depth investigation that is contextualised and combined with the intuition and embodied knowledge of the designer. The investigation focuses on a neglected site in the Red Zone in the heart of Christchurch city, with significant Victorian and Edwardian Baroque heritage buildings, including Odeon Theatre, Lawrie & Wilson Auctioneers, and Sol Square, owned by The Regional Council Environment Canterbury. The design inquiry argues, develops, and is carried through a place-assemblage lens to housing development for city recovery, which recognizes the significance of socially responsive architecture that explores urban renewal by forging connections within the social network. Therefore, place-assemblage criteria and methods for developing socially active and meaningful housing developments are identified. Firstly, this thesis argues that co-living housing models are more focused on people relations and collective identity than the dominant developer-driven housing rebuilds, as they prioritise conduits for interaction and shared social meaning and practices. Secondly, the adaptive reuse of derelict heritage structures is proposed to reinvigorate the urban fabric, as heritage is seen to be conceived as and from a social assemblage of people. The design is realised by the principles outlined in the ICOMOS charter, which involves incorporating the material histories of existing structures and preserving the intangible heritage of the site by ensuring the continuity of cultural practices. Lastly, design processes and methods are also vital for place-sensitive results, which pay attention to the site’s unique characteristics to engage with local stakeholders and communities. The research explores place-assemblage methods of photographic extraction, the drawing of story maps, precedent studies, assemblage maps, bricolages, and paper models, which show an assembly of layers that piece together the existing heritage, social conduits, urban commons and housing to conceptualise the social network within its place.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A photograph of graffiti on one of the walls of the kitchen in Donna Allfrey's house at 406 Oxford Terrace. Parts of the graffiti read, "Quakes, a national disaster", "Recovery, a national disgrace", "'It's been a lot of fun' - John Key, yeah right!", "Brownlee sucks, "Ring fn EQC, ring fn insurance", "Useless fn council", "Sideshow Bob is an idiot", "Don't let the bastards get you down", "Avon Loop - park or developers fodder?", and "Never trust a Carter". There are also shopping and to-do lists scrawled amongst these messages.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A photograph of graffiti on one of the walls of the kitchen in Donna Allfrey's house at 406 Oxford Terrace. Parts of the graffiti read, "Quakes, a national disaster", "Recovery, a national disgrace", "'It's been a lot of fun' - John Key, yeah right!", "Brownlee sucks, "Ring fn EQC, ring fn insurance", "Useless fn council", "Sideshow Bob is an idiot", "Don't let the bastards get you down", "Avon Loop - park or developers fodder?", and "Never trust a Carter". There are also shopping and to-do lists scrawled amongst these messages.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A photograph of signs on a wall in the Christchurch Art Gallery. The signs read, "Final media trip to the CTV building, 15:00 hours, media opportunity with National Controller and rescue services. This is the last scheduled media hour into the red zone", "Media Briefings, Tuesday 8 March: 10:30 hours, Wednesday 9 March: 15:00 hours, in auditorium" and "Please switch off your cell phones before entering media briefings. Thank you". There is also a diagram of the first and ground floor of the art gallery. The Christchurch Art Gallery served as the temporary Civil Defence headquarters after the 22 February 2011 earthquake.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A photograph of graffiti on one of the walls of the kitchen in Donna Allfrey's house at 406 Oxford Terrace. Parts of the graffiti read, "Quakes, a national disaster", "Recovery, a national disgrace", "'It's been a lot of fun' - John Key, yeah right!", "Brownlee sucks, "Ring fn EQC, ring fn insurance", "Useless fn council", "Sideshow Bob is an idiot", "Don't let the bastards get you down", "Avon Loop - park or developers fodder?", and "Never trust a Carter". There are also shopping and to-do lists scrawled amongst these messages.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

One of the less understood geotechnical responses to the cyclic loading from the MW6.2 Christchurch Earthquake, on the 22nd of February 2011, is the fissuring in the loessial soil-mantled, footslope positions of the north-facing valleys of the Port Hills. The fissures are characterized by mostly horizontal offset (≤500mm), with minor vertical displacement (≤300mm), and they extend along both sides of valleys for several hundred metres in an approximately contour-parallel orientation. The fissure traces correspond to extensional features mapped in other studies. Previous studies have suggested that the fissures are the headscarps of incipient landslides, but the surface and subsurface features are not typical of landslide movement. Whilst there are some features that correlate with landslide movement, there are many features that contradict the landslide movement hypothesis. Of critical importance to this investigation was the fact that there are no landslide flanks, there has been no basal shear surface found, there is little deformation in the so-called ‘landslide body’, and there have been no recorded zones of low shear strength in the soil deposit that are indicative of a basal shear surface. This thesis is a detailed geotechnical study on the fissures along part of Ramahana Road in the Hillsborough Valley, Christchurch. Shallow and deep investigation methods found that the predominant soil is loess-colluvium, to depths of ~20m, and this soil has variable geotechnical characteristics depending on the layer sampled. The factor that has the most influence on shear strength was found to be the moisture content. Direct shear-box testing of disturbed, recompacted loess-colluvium found that the soil had a cohesion of 35-65kPa and a friction angle of 38-43° when the soil moisture content was at 8-10%. However when the moisture content was at 19-20% the soil’s cohesion decreased to 3-5kPa and its friction angle decreased to 33-38°, this moisture content is at or slightly above the plastic limit. An electrical resistivity geophysical survey was conducted perpendicular to multiple fissure traces and through the compressional zone at 17 Ramahana Road. The electrical resistivity line found that there was an area of high resistivity at the toe of the slope, and an area of high conductivity downslope of this and at greater depths. This area correlated to the compressional zone recorded by previous studies. Moisture content testing of the soil in these locations showed that the soil in the resistive area was relatively dry (9%) compared to the surrounding soil (13%), whilst the soil in the conductive area was relatively wet (22%)compared to the surrounding soil (19%). Density tests of the soil in the compressional zone recorded that the resistive area had a higher dry density than the surrounding soil (~1790 kg/m3 compared to ~1650 kg/m3). New springs arose downslope of the compressional zone contemporaneously with the fissures, and it is interpreted that these have arisen from increased hydraulic head in the Banks Peninsula bedrock aquifer system, and earthquake induced-bedrock fracturing. A test pit was dug across an infilled fissure trace at 17 Ramahana Road to a depth of 3m. The fissure trace had an aperture of 450-470mm at the ground surface, but it gradually lost aperture with depth until 2.0-2.1m where it became a segmented fissure trace with 1-2mm aperture. A mixed-colluvium layer was intercepted by the fissure trace at 2.4m depth, and there was no observable vertical offset of this layer. The fissure trace was at an angle of 78° at the ground surface, but it also flattened with depth, which gave it a slightly curved appearance. The fissure trace was at an assumed angle of 40-50° near the base of the test pit. Rotational slide, translational slide and lateral spread landslide movement types were compared and contrasted as possibilities for landslide movement types, whilst an alternative hypothesis was offered that the fissures are tensile failures with a quasi-toppling motion involving a cohesive block of loessial soil moving outwards from the slope, with an accommodating compressional strain in the lower less cohesive soil. The mechanisms behind this movement are suggested to be the horizontal earthquake inertia forces from the Christchurch Earthquake, the static shear stress of the slope, and bedrock uplift of the Port Hills in relation to the subsidence of the Christchurch city flatlands. Extremely high PGA is considered to be a prerequisite to the fissure trace development, and these can only be induced in the Hillsborough Valley from a Port Hills Fault rupture, which has a recurrence interval of ~10,000 years. The current understanding of how the loess-colluvium soil would behave under cyclic loading is limited, and the mechanisms behind the suggested movement type are not completely understood. Further research is needed to confirm the proposed mechanism of the fissure traces. Laboratory tests such as the cyclic triaxial and cyclic shear test would be beneficial in future research to quantitatively test how the soil behaves under cyclic loading at various moisture contents and clay contents, and centrifuge experiments would be of great use to qualitatively test the suggested mode of movement in the loessial soil.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

In four frames a man watches the news on TV. He hears that 'Severe aftershocks continue as the demolition crew move into the red zone.. amidst the badly damaged infrastructure..' His wife offers him a cup of tea and assumes the report is about Christchurch but it is not, it is about 'Phil Goff & Labour' Context - Christchurch continues to have aftershocks following the February 22 earthquake and the Labour Party is suffering one bodyblow after another - the last being the Darren Hughes affair. This is disastrous for Labour because the 2011 election is in November. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Audio, Radio New Zealand

TODD McCLAY to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received on the Government's financial position? DAVID SHEARER to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements? METIRIA TUREI to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his reported statement that "anyone expecting details of a 'cosy sort of little deal' would be disappointed" by the Deputy Auditor-General's report into the SkyCity Convention Centre negotiations. DENIS O'ROURKE to the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery: What criteria did he use in deciding that owners of vacant sections in the red zone of Christchurch should only be compensated at half of the sections' most recent rateable value? KANWALJIT SINGH BAKSHI to the Minister for Economic Development: What economic opportunities will a new convention centre bring for Auckland? Hon DAVID PARKER to the Prime Minister: Did he or his office receive the 12 November 2009 report from Ministry officials to the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, summarising the process with SkyCity for the building of a convention centre; if so, did he read it? MIKE SABIN to the Associate Minister for Social Development: What steps is the Government taking to reduce welfare fraud? Hon CLAYTON COSGROVE to the Minister for State Owned Enterprises: What contingency plans, if any, does the Government have in place regarding its asset sale programme should the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter reduce production? KEVIN HAGUE to the Minister of Trade: Will New Zealand support Australia's objection to signing up to investor-state dispute provisions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement; if not, why not? Hon LIANNE DALZIEL to the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery: Why is he offering only 50 percent of rating valuation for commercial or bare land in the residential red zone where the land could not be insured? MARK MITCHELL to the Minister of Corrections: What announcements has she made on improving prisoner employment training in New Zealand prisons? CHRIS HIPKINS to the Minister of Education: Does she stand by all her decisions in relation to schools in Christchurch?

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Topics - If you like a quiet time, head for the Spanish city of Seville. Seville's silent summer, they're calling this. They've banned outdoor noise. Seville's been noisy; flamenco singers, old men playing dominoes, bar patrons chatting. The city councillors have now banned most of this, and they seem to have support. Gerry Brownlee the Earthquake Recovery Minister will have the final say over what happens to a piece of land near Christchurch airport, on the corner of Memorial Ave and Russley Road. It's currently zoned as rural, but industrial development could be on the cards. The NYT wonders why with so much violence in movies and games, the big Comic-con pop entertainment convention in San Diego is so peaceful. John Banks snapped phone-driving, we saw at the weekend. John Banks accused of breaking the law again, this time for using a cellphone while driving.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This paper develops representative ground motion ensembles for several major earthquake scenarios in New Zealand. Cases considered include representative ground motions for the occurrence of Alpine, Hope, and Porters Pass earthquakes in Christchurch, and the occurrence of Wellington, Wairarapa, and Ohariu, fault ruptures in Wellington. Challenges in the development of ground motion ensembles for subduction zone earthquakes are also highlighted. The ground motions are selected based on the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach, ensuring that the ground motion ensembles represent both the mean, and distribution of ground motion intensity which such scenarios could impose. These scenario-based ground motion sets can be used to complement ground motions which are often selected in conjunction with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, in order to understand the performance of structures for the question “what if this fault ruptures?”

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The Canterbury region of New Zealand was shaken by major earthquakes on the 4th September 2010 and 22nd February 2011. The quakes caused 185 fatalities and extensive land, infrastructure and building damage, particularly in the Eastern suburbs of Christchurch city. Almost 450 ha of residential and public land was designated as a ‘Red Zone’ unsuitable for residential redevelopment because land damage was so significant, engineering solutions were uncertain, and repairs would be protracted. Subsequent demolition of all housing and infrastructure in the area has left a blank canvas of land stretching along the Avon River corridor from the CBD to the sea. Initially the Government’s official – but enormously controversial – position was that this land would be cleared and lie fallow until engineering solutions could be found that enabled residential redevelopment. This paper presents an application of a choice experiment (CE) that identified and assessed Christchurch residents’ preferences for different land use options of this Red Zone. Results demonstrated strong public support for the development of a recreational reserve comprising a unique natural environment with native fauna and flora, healthy wetlands and rivers, and recreational opportunities that align with this vision. By highlighting the value of a range of alternatives, the CE provided a platform for public participation and expanded the conversational terrain upon which redevelopment policy took place. We conclude the method has value for land use decision-making beyond the disaster recovery context.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Questions to Ministers 1. TODD McCLAY to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received on the Government's financial position? 2. DAVID SHEARER to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements? 3. METIRIA TUREI to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his reported statement that "anyone expecting details of a 'cosy sort of little deal' would be disappointed" by the Deputy Auditor-General's report into the SkyCity Convention Centre negotiations. 4. DENIS O'ROURKE to the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery: What criteria did he use in deciding that owners of vacant sections in the red zone of Christchurch should only be compensated at half of the sections' most recent rateable value? 5. KANWALJIT SINGH BAKSHI to the Minister for Economic Development: What economic opportunities will a new convention centre bring for Auckland? 6. Hon DAVID PARKER to the Prime Minister: Did he or his office receive the 12 November 2009 report from Ministry officials to the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, summarising the process with SkyCity for the building of a convention centre; if so, did he read it? 7. MIKE SABIN to the Associate Minister for Social Development: What steps is the Government taking to reduce welfare fraud? 8. Hon CLAYTON COSGROVE to the Minister for State Owned Enterprises: What contingency plans, if any, does the Government have in place regarding its asset sale programme should the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter reduce production? 9. KEVIN HAGUE to the Minister of Trade: Will New Zealand support Australia's objection to signing up to investor-state dispute provisions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement; if not, why not? 10. Hon LIANNE DALZIEL to the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery: Why is he offering only 50 percent of rating valuation for commercial or bare land in the residential red zone where the land could not be insured? 11. MARK MITCHELL to the Minister of Corrections: What announcements has she made on improving prisoner employment training in New Zealand prisons? 12. CHRIS HIPKINS to the Minister of Education: Does she stand by all her decisions in relation to schools in Christchurch?

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Questions to Ministers 1. TODD McCLAY to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received on the Government's financial position? 2. DAVID SHEARER to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements? 3. METIRIA TUREI to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his reported statement that "anyone expecting details of a 'cosy sort of little deal' would be disappointed" by the Deputy Auditor-General's report into the SkyCity Convention Centre negotiations. 4. DENIS O'ROURKE to the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery: What criteria did he use in deciding that owners of vacant sections in the red zone of Christchurch should only be compensated at half of the sections' most recent rateable value? 5. KANWALJIT SINGH BAKSHI to the Minister for Economic Development: What economic opportunities will a new convention centre bring for Auckland? 6. Hon DAVID PARKER to the Prime Minister: Did he or his office receive the 12 November 2009 report from Ministry officials to the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, summarising the process with SkyCity for the building of a convention centre; if so, did he read it? 7. MIKE SABIN to the Associate Minister for Social Development: What steps is the Government taking to reduce welfare fraud? 8. Hon CLAYTON COSGROVE to the Minister for State Owned Enterprises: What contingency plans, if any, does the Government have in place regarding its asset sale programme should the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter reduce production? 9. KEVIN HAGUE to the Minister of Trade: Will New Zealand support Australia's objection to signing up to investor-state dispute provisions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement; if not, why not? 10. Hon LIANNE DALZIEL to the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery: Why is he offering only 50 percent of rating valuation for commercial or bare land in the residential red zone where the land could not be insured? 11. MARK MITCHELL to the Minister of Corrections: What announcements has she made on improving prisoner employment training in New Zealand prisons? 12. CHRIS HIPKINS to the Minister of Education: Does she stand by all her decisions in relation to schools in Christchurch?

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This study contains an evaluation of the seismic hazard associated with the Springbank Fault, a blind structure discovered in 1998 close to Christchurch. The assessment of the seismic hazard is approached as a deterministic process in which it is necessary to establish: 1) fault characteristics; 2) the maximum earthquake that the fault is capable of producing and 3) ground motions estimations. Due to the blind nature of the fault, conventional techniques used to establish the basic fault characteristics for seismic hazard assessments could not be applied. Alternative methods are used including global positioning system (GPS) surveys, morphometric analyses along rivers, shallow seismic reflection surveys and computer modelling. These were supplemented by using multiple empirical equations relating fault attributes to earthquake magnitude, and attenuation relationships to estimate ground motions in the near-fault zone. The analyses indicated that the Springbank Fault is a reverse structure located approximately 30 km to the northwest of Christchurch, along a strike length of approximately 16 km between the Eyre and Ashley River. The fault does not reach the surface, buy it is associated with a broad anticline whose maximum topographic expression offers close to the mid-length of the fault. Two other reverse faults, the Eyrewell and Sefton Faults, are inferred in the study area. These faults, together with the Springbank and Hororata Faults and interpreted as part of a sys of trust/reverse faults propagating from a decollement located at mid-crustal depths of approximately 14 km beneath the Canterbury Plains Within this fault system, the Springbank Fault is considered to behave in a seismically independent way, with a fault slip rate of ~0.2 mm/yr, and the capacity of producing a reverse-slip earthquake of moment magnitude ~6.4, with an earthquake recurrence of 3,000 years. An earthquake of the above characteristics represents a significant seismic hazard for various urban centres in the near-fault zone including Christchurch, Rangiora, Oxford, Amberley, Kaiapoi, Darfield, Rollestion and Cust. Estimated peak ground accelerations for these towns range between 0.14 g to 0.5 g.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

A rat in a business suit representing 'insurance companies' carries a briefcase labelled 'Total replacement policies' and follows a fellow rat into a large hole 'loop holes' that leads into a collapsed building. The rat says 'Woo-hoo! Home sweet home!' Context - Problems for people whose houses were damaged in the Christchurch earthquakes. One of the options presented to residents in the red zone, ideal for people with replacement policies, was the government bought your land, and you dealt directly with your insurers about your house. However they got a shock when insurers told them they won't replace their homes, they'll only repair them, even though they're earmarked for certain demolition. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, eqnz.chch.2010

The NG building on Madras Street was given the go ahead to repair earthquake damage, which the owners did at some expense, Now, the government want this land to build a central city stadium, so there is a protest on the windows set to the Christmas song the Twelve Days of Christmas. 12 million road cones 11 thousand Hi-Viz (vests) 10 Council m...

Images, eqnz.chch.2010

The NG building on Madras Street was given the go ahead to repair earthquake damage, which the owners did at some expense, Now, the government want this land to build a central city stadium, so there is a protest on the windows set to the Christmas song the Twelve Days of Christmas. 12 million road cones 11 thousand Hi-Viz (vests) 10 Council m...

Images, eqnz.chch.2010

The back of the old Odeon movie theatre, that was for about 15-20 years a New Life Christian Centre. This is earthquake damage, although the roof was lifted off in 2011. I don't know whether this is a building that they want to save or still awaiting demolition. The smaller building to the immediate left was restored a few years ago and for a...

Images, eqnz.chch.2010

The two nice trees in the front of my old property (now owned by the government) have been cut down so the main section of the house behind could be trucked down the drive. The truck must have been up against the fence to get the height above the house to the left (15 Velsheda Street). Down this drive were numbers 17, 19 and 21 (still occupied b...

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Prognostic modelling provides an efficient means to analyse the coastal environment and provide effective knowledge for long term urban planning. This paper outlines how the use of SWAN and Xbeach numerical models within the ESRI ArcGIS interface can simulate geomorphological evolution through hydrodynamic forcing for the Greater Christchurch coastal environment. This research followed the data integration techniques of Silva and Taborda (2012) and utilises their beach morphological modelling tool (BeachMM tool). The statutory requirements outlined in the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement 2010 were examined to determine whether these requirements are currently being complied with when applying the recent sea level rise predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), and it would appear that it does not meet those requirements. This is because coastal hazard risk has not been thoroughly quantified by the installation of the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) residential red zone. However, the Christchurch City Council’s (CCC) flood management area does provide an extent to which managed coastal retreat is a real option. This research assessed the effectiveness of the prognostic models, forecasted a coastline for 100 years from now, and simulated the physical effects of extreme events such as storm surge given these future predictions. The results of this research suggest that progradation will continue to occur along the Christchurch foreshore due to the net sediment flux retaining an onshore direction and the current hydrodynamic activity not being strong enough to move sediment offshore. However, inundation during periods of storm surge poses a risk to human habitation on low lying areas around the Avon-Heathcote Estuary and the Brooklands lagoon similar to the CCC’s flood management area. There are complex interactions at the Waimakariri River mouth with very high rates of accretion and erosion within a small spatial scale due to the river discharge. There is domination of the marine environment over the river system determined by the lack of generation of a distinct river delta, and river channel has not formed within the intertidal zone clearly. The Avon-Heathcote ebb tidal delta aggrades on the innner fan and erodes on the outer fan due to wave domination. The BeachMM tool facilitates the role of spatial and temporal analysis effectively and the efficiency of that performance is determined by the computational operating system.