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Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

This dissertation contains three essays on the impact of unexpected adverse events on student outcomes. All three attempt to identify causal inference using plausibly exogenous shocks and econometric tools, applied to rich administrative data.  In Chapter 2, I present evidence of the causal effects of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake on tertiary enrolment and completion. Using the shock of the 2011 earthquake on high school students in the Canterbury region, I estimate the effect of the earthquake on a range of outcomes including tertiary enrolment, degree completion and wages. I find the earthquake causes a substantial increase in tertiary enrolment, particularly for low ability high school leavers from damaged schools. However, I find no evidence that low ability students induced by the earthquake complete a degree on time.  In Chapter 3, I identify the impact of repeat disaster exposure on university performance, by comparing outcomes for students who experience their first earthquake while in university, to outcomes for students with prior earthquake exposure. Using a triple-differences estimation strategy with individual-by-year fixed effects, I identify a precise null effect, suggesting that previous experience of earthquakes is not predictive of response to an additional shock two years later.  The final chapter investigates the impact of injuries sustained in university on academic performance and wages, using administrative data including no-fault insurance claims, emergency department attendance and hospital admissions, linked with tertiary enrolment. I find injuries, including minor injuries, have a negative effect on re-enrolment, degree completion and grades in university.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text reads 'Rebuilding projects'. The first of the two frames shows collapsed buildings in Christchurch after the earthquake and the second frame shows leader of the Labour Party Phil Goff sorely in need of 'credibility' as he makes the 'V' for victory sign with both hands. Context - the rebuilding of Christchurch after the earthquake of 22 March 2011 and Phil Goff's disastrous personal polling as 'preferred PM' and the concomitant problems for the Labour Party with elections in November of this year. Colour and black and white versions of this cartoon are available Quantity: 2 digital cartoon(s).

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We estimate the causal effects of a large unanticipated natural disaster on high schoolers’ university enrolment decisions and subsequent medium-term labour market outcomes. Using national administrative data after a destructive earthquake in New Zealand, we estimate that the disaster raises tertiary education enrolment of recent high school graduates by 6.1 percentage points. The effects are most pronounced for males, students who are academically weak relative to their peers, and students from schools directly damaged by the disaster. As relatively low ability males are overrepresented in sectors of the labour market helped by the earthquake, greater demand for university may stem from permanent changes in deeper behavioural parameters such as risk aversion or time preference, rather than as a coping response to poor economic opportunities.

Articles, Christchurch uncovered

Many of you will already know that Christchurch has a fascinating political history, from labour movements to radical social reform to the campaign for women’s suffrage. It is to my eternal disappointment that this “great ferment of ideas”, as Jim McAloon … Continue reading →

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Opposition parties fear a new department to control the rebuilding of Christchurch will be Wellington-centric and not allow the community to have its fair say in decisions. The Labour Party's spokesperson on the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery, Clayton Cosgrove, spoke to our political editor Brent Edwards.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Labour MPs say it's important party sticks to strategy, Man shot dead by police near Napier, Thousands attend Westminister Christchurch memorial, Twickenham packed for Crusaders vs Sharks match, Doubt in Christchurch new earthquake agency worthwhile, and Canterbury aged care firms want certainty; families want beds.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of an interview with Prime Minister John Key about several topical issues. One of these issues is the housing crisis in Christchurch. Key talks about fast tracking the release of land in Christchurch, making sure there are enough resources in the city for building, and working with the Christchurch City Council around consenting. He also talks about the possibility of the National Party winning the Christchurch East by-election.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The cartoon shows the leader of the new Mana Party, Hone Harawira, in four frames that illustrate 'The aftershock', 'the shake-up', 'the waiting & anxiety!...' and in the last frame 'the liquefaction...' as he sinks up to his chest in 'Poll Street'. Context - In fact Hone Harawira won the Te Tai Tokerau by-election with a majority of 1,117 votes, followed fairly closely by Kelvin Davis (Labour). The Labour and Mana candidates seemed to be neck and neck just before the election on 26 June 2011. The cartoon uses earthquake imagery to illustrate the emotional roller-coaster for Hone Harawira. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Labour leader Phil Goff is being 'shored up' and strengthened by reinforced steel beams which represent his 'leadership. He tells ACT leader Rodney Hide who holds a newspaper with a headline reading 'ACT rattled again' that he needs to 'strengthen now before the next shake up!' As an insecure leader he is showing sympathy to Rodney Hide who is even more insecure because of the recent embarrassment of the David Garrett debacle. The title of the cartoon is 'Quake-proofing essential...' which is a reference to the Christchurch earthquake of 4th September and the continuing aftershocks. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Christchurch MPs - Labour's Lianne Dalziel and National's Amy Adams - say it's not fair for seat-of-the-pants post-quake red/yellow and green sticker assessments to be formally recorded forever. They say the assessments were hastily done and inconsistent. But the Christchurch City Council says its required to do so under the provisions of the Canterbury Earthquake Response and Recovery Act.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Topics - A big study from Harvard and UC Berkeley has looked back into family trees, over centuries, to determine how social mobility has changed. The "Moon man" has used his claimed Christchurch earthquake predictions to defeat an Advertising Standards Authority complaint over his weather forecasting website. The Prime Minister John Key says Labour's flat performance in recent polls is because it's focusing on the wrong issues.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

A review of the week's news including: Labour struggling to put a dent in the National Party's lead in the polls, questions over Israelis caught up in the Christchurch earthquake, the latest from the Pike River Mine inquiry, electricity price rises fuelling inflation, an Auckland school wanting all students to take an iPad to class and Steve Williams dropped as Tiger Wood's caddy.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

A review of the week's news including: The Labour Party's capital gains tax policy announcement, Act's creative director resigns over newspaper ad, day two and three reports from the Pike River Mine tragedy Royal Commission Of Inquiry, the treatment of Crete veterans during recent 70th anniversary commemorations, Sydenham recovery following Christchurch earthquake, Lonely Planet puts Christchurch back on it's visit list and small brewers angry over Radler beer trademark ruling.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Ang Jury of Womens' Refuge talks about the announced changes to family violence law and if the government's got it right. Labour's Andrew Little "rejected" yesterday's One News Colmar Brunton Poll so the party released its own results today. Bruce Springsteen has announced dates for a New Zealand tour including a concert in Christchurch for the anniversary of the February 2011 earthquake. Your feedback about the long hours hospital doctors work.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of the Listen to Christchurch march which protested the government's proposed school closures in Christchurch. The march was organised by the New Zealand Education Institute. The video includes footage of protesters marching from the netball courts in Hagley Park to Riccarton Avenue, and a speech by Labour Party Leader David Shearer. It also includes interviews with Sandra Spekreijse, the chair of the NZEI Area Council, and local Jon Malis.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

The Canterbury earthquakes have provided the opportunity to reconsider the Christchurch CBD - and arts and culture have often led the discussion. No more so than during the bold biennial weekend celebration of urban creativity which is Festa, which first gave the public access to the red zone back in in 2012. FESTA returns this Labour weekend and joining Mark Amery this week are festival director and architectural historian Doctor Jessica Halliday and Kairaranga or weaver Benita Wakefield, who is part of FESTA project Kono for Kai.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This research examines a surprising partner in emergency management - a local community time bank. Specifically, we explain the role of the Lyttelton Time Bank in promoting community resiliency following the Canterbury earthquakes in 2010 and 2011. A time bank is a grassroots exchange system in which members trade services non-reciprocally. This exchange model assumes that everyone has tradable skills and all labour is equal in value. One hour of any labour earns a member one time bank hour, which can be used to purchase another member’s services. Before the earthquakes struck, the Lyttelton Time Bank (TB) had organised over 10% of the town’s residents and 18 local organisations. It was documenting, developing, and mobilising skills to solve individual and collective problems. This report examines the Lyttelton Time Bank and its’ role before, during, and after the earthquakes based on the analysis of over three and a half years of fieldwork, observations, interviews, focus groups, trading activity, and secondary data.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

A report into why Statistics House failed in the November earthquake has revealed a design flaw in the building, and the Government says all buildings nationwide like Statistics House will now need checking. Christchurch man Jeremy Teaguea wants to overturn the law making wearing a bike helment compulsory. Former cyclone Debbie will make her presence felt here over the next week. Weatherman Richard Green tells us what to expect. Going up for Labour and a downward turn in the polls for National. Is it really because of Jacinda Ardern and Bill English?

Audio, Radio New Zealand

A review of the week's news, including: environmental protests against oil exploration off the East cape, changes to Legal Aid, plans to sell the Pike River coal mine, a Labour MP says his party's list is drawn up by"a gaggle of gays", confidence in the economy grows, extraordinary powers given to the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority, the number of heritage buildings to be demolished after the quake grows, results from faultline mapping in Christchurch to be known within weeks, Mt Ruapehu to be monitored around the clock and Victoria Cross winners are awarded with stamps.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

A review of the week's headline news including the unfolding environmental disaster in the Bay of Plenty, the Earthquake Commission expected to face tough questioning on its handling of the Canterbury earthquakes, the finance minister says more belt tightening on the way, Labour refusing to accept the Prime Minister's explanation of his Standard and Poors comments, the Greens sceptical of claims that insurgents caught by the SAS in Afghanistan have not been tortured, the only All Black team to win the Rugby World Cup gathers for the first time in 24 years and business confidence plunges.