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Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

A major hazard accompanying earthquake shaking in areas of steep topography is the detachment of rocks from bedrock outcrops that subsequently slide, roll, or bounce downslope (i.e. rockfalls). The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence caused recurrent and severe rockfall in parts of southern Christchurch. Coseismic rockfall caused five fatalities and significant infrastructural damage during the 2011 Mw 6.2 Christchurch earthquake. Here we examine a rockfall site in southern Christchurch in detail using geomorphic mapping, lidar analysis, geochronology (cosmogenic 3He dating, radiocarbon dating, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) from quartz, infrared stimulated luminescence from K-feldspar), numerical modeling of rockfall boulder trajectories, and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Rocks fell from the source cliff only in earthquakes with interpolated peak ground velocities exceeding ~10 cm/s; hundreds of smaller earthquakes did not produce rockfall. On the basis of empirical observations, GMPEs and age chronologies we attribute paleo-rockfalls to strong shaking in prehistoric earthquakes. We conclude that earthquake shaking of comparable intensity to the strongest contemporary earthquakes in Christchurch last occurred at this site approximately 5000 to 7000 years ago, and that in some settings, rockfall deposits provide useful proxies for past strong ground motions.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This paper summarizes the development of a high-resolution surficial shear wave velocity model based on the combination of the large high-spatial-density database of cone penetration test (CPT) logs in and around Christchurch, New Zealand and a recently-developed Christchurch-specific empirical correlation between soil shear wave velocity and CPT. This near-surface shear wave velocity model has applications for site characterization efforts via the development of maps of time-averaged shear wave velocities over specific depths, as well as use in site response analysis and ground motion simulation.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

he strong motion station at Heathcote Valley School (HVSC) recorded unusually high peak ground accelerations (2.21g vertical and 1.41g horizontal) during the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Ground motions recorded at HVSC in numerous other events also exhibited consistently higher intensities compared with nearby strong motion stations. We investigated the underlying causes of such high intensity ground motions at HVSC by means of 2D dynamic finite element analyses, using recorded ground motions during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. The model takes advantage of a LiDAR-based digital elevation model (DEM) to account for the surface topography, while the geometry and dynamic properties of the surficial soils are characterized by seismic cone penetration tests (sCPT) and Multi-Channel Analyses of Surface Waves (MASW). Comparisons of simulated and recorded ground motions suggests that our model performs well for distant events, while for near-field events, ground motions recorded at the adopted reference station at Lyttelton Port are not reasonable input motions for the simulation. The simulations suggest that Rayleigh waves generated at the inclined interface of the surficial colluvium and underlying volcanic rock strongly affect the ground motions recorded at HVSC, in particular, being the dominant contributor to the recorded vertical motions.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Recent field investigations were carried out to define the shear wave velocity (VS) profile and site periods across the Canterbury region, supplementing earlier efforts in urban Christchurch. Active source surface wave testing, ambient wave field (passive) and H/V spectral ratio methods were used to characterise the soil profile in the region. H/V spectral ratio peaks indicate site periods in the range of 5-7 seconds across much of the Canterbury Plains, broadly consistent with those based on a 1D velocity model for the region. Site periods decrease rapidly in the vicinity of the Canterbury foothills and the Banks Peninsula outcrops. In Christchurch, the Riccarton Gravels result in a significant mode of vibration that has a much shorter period than the site period of the entire soil column down to basement rock.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

During the 2010 - 2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence, extensive liquefaction was observed in many areas of Christchurch city and its surroundings, causing widespread damage to buildings and infrastructure. While existing simplified methods were found to work well in some areas of the city, there were also large areas where these methods did not perform satisfactorily. In some of these cases, researchers have proposed that layers of fine grained material within the soil profile may be responsible for preventing the manifestation of liquefaction. This paper presents preliminary findings on the mechanisms at play when pressure differentials exist across a clay layer. It is found that if the clay layer is unable to distort, then pore fluid is unable to break-through the layer even with relatively high pressures, resulting in dissipation of excess pore pressures by seepage. If the layers are however able to distort, then it is possible for the pore fluid to break through the clay layer, potentially resulting in adverse effects in terms of the severity of liquefaction.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This paper presents insights from recent advanced laboratory testing of undisturbed and reconstituted specimens of Christchurch silty-sands. The purpose of the testing was to establish the cyclic strength of silty-sands from sites in the Central Business District (CBD), where liquefaction was observed in 4 September 2010, 22 February 2011, and 13 June 2011. Similar overall strengths were obtained from undisturbed and reconstituted tests prepared at similar densities, albeit with higher variability for the reconstituted specimens. Reconstituted specimens exhibited distinctly different response in terms of lower compressibility during initial loading cycles, and exhibited a more brittle response when large strains were mobilised, particularly for samples with high fines content. Given the lower variability in natural sample response and the possibility of age-related strength to be significant for sites not subjected to earthquakes, high quality undisturbed samples are recommended over the use of reconstituted specimens to establish the cyclic strength of natural sands.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Current research in geotechnical engineering at the University of Canterbury includes a number of laboratory testing programmes focussed on understanding the behaviour of natural soil deposits in Christchurch during the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence. Many soils found in Christchurch are sands or silty sands with little to no plasticity, making them very difficult to sample using established methods. The gel-push sampling methodology, developed by Kiso-Jiban Consultants in Japan, was developed to address some of the deficiencies of existing sampling techniques and has been deployed on two projects in Christchurch. Gel push sampling is carried out with a range of samplers which are modified versions of existing technology, and the University of Canterbury has acquired three versions of the tools (GP-S, GP-Tr, GP-D). Soil samples are extracted from the bottom of a freshly drilled borehole and are captured within a liner barrel, close to 1m in length. A lubricating polymer gel coats the outside of the soil sample as it enters the liner barrel. The frictional rubbing which normally occurs on the sides of the soil samples using existing techniques is eliminated by the presence of the polymer gel. The operation of the gel-push samplers is significantly more complicated than conventional push-tube samplers, and in the initial trials a number of operational difficulties were encountered, requiring changes to the sampling procedures. Despite these issues, a number of high quality soil samples were obtained on both projects using the GP-S sampler to capture silty soil. Attempts were made to obtain clean sands using a different gel-push sampler (GP-TR) in the Red Zone. The laboratory testing of these sands indicated that they were being significantly disturbed during the sampling and/or transportation procedures. While it remains too early to draw definitive conclusions regarding the performance of the gel-push samplers, the methodology has provided some promising results. Further trialling of the tools are required to refine operating procedures understand the full range of soil conditions which can be successfully sampled using the tools. In parallel with the gel-push trials, a Dames and Moore fixed-piston sampler has been used by our research partners from Berkeley to obtain soil samples at a number of sites within Christchurch. This sampler features relatively short (50cm), thin-walled liner barrels which is advanced into the ground under the action of hydraulic pressure. By reducing the overall length of the soil being captured, the disturbance to the soil as it enters the liner barrel is significantly reduced. The Dames and Moore sampler is significantly easier to operate than the gel-push sampler, and past experience has shown it to be successful in soft, plastic materials (i.e. clays and silty clays). The cyclic resistance of one silty clay obtained using both the gel-push and Dames & Moore samplers has been found to be very similar, and ongoing research aims to establish whether similar results are obtained for different soil types, including silty materials and clean sands.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This dissertation addresses a diverse range of topics in the physics-based broadband ground motion simulation, with a focus on New Zealand applications. In particular the following topics are addressed: the methodology and computational implementation of a New Zealand Velocity Model for broadband ground motion simulation; generalised parametric functions and spatial correlations for seismic velocities in the Canterbury, New Zealand region from surface-wave-based site characterisation; and ground motion simulations of Hope Fault earthquakes. The paragraphs below outline each contribution in more detail. A necessary component in physics-based ground motion simulation is a 3D model which details the seismic velocities in the region of interest. Here a velocity model construction methodology, its computational implementation, and application in the construction of a New Zealand velocity model for use in physics-based broadband ground motion simulation are presented. The methodology utilises multiple datasets spanning different length scales, which is enabled via the use of modular sub-regions, geologic surfaces, and parametric representations of crustal velocity. A number of efficiency-related workflows to decrease the overall computational construction time are employed, while maintaining the flexibility and extensibility to incorporate additional datasets and re- fined velocity parameterizations as they become available. The model comprises explicit representations of the Canterbury, Wellington, Nelson-Tasman, Kaikoura, Marlborough, Waiau, Hanmer and Cheviot sedimentary basins embedded within a regional travel-time tomography-based velocity model for the shallow crust and provides the means to conduct ground motion simulations throughout New Zealand for the first time. Recently developed deep shear-wave velocity profiles in Canterbury enabled models that better characterise the velocity structure within geologic layers of the Canterbury sedimentary basin to be developed. Here the development of depth- and Vs30-dependent para-metric velocity and spatial correlation models to characterise shear-wave velocities within the geologic layers of the Canterbury sedimentary basin are presented. The models utilise data from 22 shear-wave velocity profiles of up to 2.5km depth (derived from surface wave analysis) juxtaposed with models which detail the three-dimensional structure of the geologic formations in the Canterbury sedimentary basin. Parametric velocity equations are presented for Fine Grained Sediments, Gravels, and Tertiary layer groupings. Spatial correlations were developed and applied to generate three-dimensional stochastic velocity perturbations. Collectively, these models enable seismic velocities to be realistically represented for applications such as 3D ground motion and site response simulations. Lastly the New Zealand velocity model is applied to simulate ground motions for a Mw7.51 rupture of the Hope Fault using a physics-based simulation methodology and a 3D crustal velocity model of New Zealand. The simulation methodology was validated for use in the region through comparison with observations for a suite of historic small magnitude earthquakes located proximal to the Hope Fault. Simulations are compared with conventionally utilised empirical ground motion models, with simulated peak ground velocities being notably higher in regions with modelled sedimentary basins. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken where the source characteristics of magnitude, stress parameter, hypocentre location and kinematic slip distribution were varied and an analysis of their effect on ground motion intensities is presented. It was found that the magnitude and stress parameter strongly influenced long and short period ground motion amplitudes, respectively. Ground motion intensities for the Hope Fault scenario are compared with the 2016 Kaikoura Mw7.8 earthquake, it was found that the Kaikoura earthquake produced stronger motions along the eastern South Island, while the Hope Fault scenario resulted in stronger motions immediately West of the near-fault region. The simulated ground motions for this scenario complement prior empirically-based estimates and are informative for mitigation and emergency planning purposes.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This paper provides a brief discussion of observed strong ground motions from the 14 November 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikoura earthquake. Specific attention is given to examining observations in the near-source region where several ground motions exceeding 1.0g horizontal are recorded, as well as up to 2.7g in the vertical direction at one location. Ground motion response spectra in the near-source, North Canterbury, Marlborough and Wellington regions are also examined and compared with design levels. Observed spectral amplitudes are also compared with predictions from empirical and physics-based ground motion modelling.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A photograph of Graeme Kershaw, Technician at the University of Canterbury Department of Physics and Astronomy, sitting among the damaged parts of the Townsend Telescope. The telescope was damaged during the 22 February 2011 earthquake, when the Observatory tower at the Christchurch Arts Centre collapsed. Kershaw has been given the task of restoring the telescope. In this photograph he is holding the telescope's clock drive. In the foreground there is a plaque reading, "The equatorial telescope and accessories in this observatory were presented to Canterbury College by James Townsend Esq. 1891. A large contribution towards the erection of the tower was made by the Canterbury Astronomical Society".

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A photograph of Graeme Kershaw, Technician at the University of Canterbury Department of Physics and Astronomy, sitting among the damaged parts of the Townsend Telescope. The telescope was damaged during the 22 February 2011 earthquake, when the Observatory tower at the Christchurch Arts Centre collapsed. Kershaw has been given the task of restoring the telescope. In this photograph he is holding the telescope's clock drive. In the foreground there is a plaque reading, "The equatorial telescope and accessories in this observatory were presented to Canterbury College by James Townsend Esq. 1891. A large contribution towards the erection of the tower was made by the Canterbury Astronomical Society".

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This report summarizes the development of a region-wide surficial soil shear wave velocity (Vs ) model based on the unique combination of a large high-spatial-density database of cone penetration test (CPT) logs in the greater Christchurch urban area (> 15, 000 logs as of 1 February 2014) and the Christchurch-specific empirical correlation between soil Vs and CPT data developed by McGann et al. [1, 2]. This model has applications for site characterization efforts via maps of time-averaged Vs over specific depths (e.g. Vs30, Vs10), and for numerical modeling efforts via the identification of typical Vs profiles for different regions and soil behaviour types within Christchurch. In addition, the Vs model can be used to constrain the near-surface velocities for the 3D seismic velocity model of the Canterbury basin [3] currently being developed for the purpose of broadband ground motion simulation. The general development of these region-wide near-surface Vs models includes the following general phases, with each discussed in separate chapters of this report. • An evaluation of the available CPT dataset for suitability, and the definition of other datasets and assumptions necessary to characterize the surficial sediments of the region to 30 m depth. • The development of time-averaged shear wave velocity (Vsz) surfaces for the Christchurch area from the adopted CPT dataset (and supplementary data/assumptions) using spatial interpolation. The Vsz surfaces are used to explore the characteristics of the near-surface soils in the regions and are shown to correspond well with known features of the local geology, the historical ecosystems of the area, and observations made following the 2010- 2011 Canterbury earthquakes. • A detailed analysis of the Vs profiles in eight subregions of Christchurch is performed to assess the variablity in the soil profiles for regions with similar Vsz values and to assess Vsz as a predictive metric for local site response. It is shown that the distrubution of soil shear wave velocity in the Christchurch regions is highly variable both spatially (horizontally) and with depth (vertically) due to the varied geological histories for different parts of the area, and the highly stratified nature of the nearsurface deposits. This variability is not considered to be greatly significant in terms of current simplified site classification systems; based on computed Vs30 values, all considered regions can be categorized as NEHRP sites class D (180 < Vs < 360 m/s) or E (Vs < 180 m/s), however, detailed analysis of the shear wave velocity profiles in different subregions of Christchurch show that the expected surficial site response can vary quite a bit across the region despite the relative similarity in Vs30

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This paper summarizes the development of a region-wide surficial shear wave velocity model based on the combination of the large high-spatial-density database of cone penetration test (CPT) logs in and around Christchurch, New Zealand and a recently-developed Christchurch-specific empirical correlation between soil shear wave velocity and CPT. The ongoing development of this near-surface shear wave velocity model has applications for site characterization efforts via the development of maps of time-averaged shear wave velocities over specific depths, and the identification of regional similarities and differences in soil shear stiffness.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

his poster presents the ongoing development of a 3D Canterbury seismic velocity model which will be used in physics-based hybrid broadband ground motion simulation of the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Velocity models must sufficiently represent critical aspects of the crustal structure over multiple length scales which will influence the results of the simulations. As a result, numerous sources of data are utilized in order to provide adequate resolution where necessary. Figure 2: (a) Seismic reflection line showing P-wave velocities and significant geologic horizons (Barnes et al. 2011), and (b) Shear wave profiles at 10 locations (Stokoe et al. 2013). Figure 4: Cross sections of the current version of the Canterbury velocity model to depths of 10km as shown in Figure 1: (a) at a constant latitude value of -43.6˚, and (b) at a constant longitude value of 172.64˚. 3. Ground Surface and Geologic Horizon Models Figure 3: (a) Ground surface model derived from numerous available digital elevation models, and (b) Base of the Quaternary sediments derived from structural contours and seismic reflection line elevations. The Canterbury region has a unique and complex geology which likely has a significant impact on strong ground motions, in particular the deep and loose deposits of the Canterbury basin. The Canterbury basin has several implications on seismic wave phenomena such as long period ground motion amplification and wave guide effects. Using a realistic 3D seismic velocity model in physics-based ground motion simulation will implicitly account for such effects and the resultant simulated ground motions can be studied to gain a fundamental understanding of the salient ground motion phenomena which occurred during the Canterbury earthquakes, and the potential for repeat occurrences in the Canterbury region. Figure 1 shows the current model domain as a rectangular area between Lat=[-43.2˚,-44.0˚], and Lon=[171.5˚,173.0˚]. This essentially spans the area between the foot of the Southern Alps in the North West to Banks Peninsula in the East. Currently the model extends to a depth of 50km below sea level.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This paper investigates the effects of variability in source rupture parameters on site-specific physics-based simulated ground motions, ascertained through the systematic analysis of ground motion intensity measures. As a preliminary study, we consider simulations of the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake using the Graves and Pitarka (2015) methodology. The effects of source variability are considered via a sensitivity study in which parameters (hypocentre location, earthquake magnitude, average rupture velocity, fault geometry and the Brune stress parameter) are individually varied by one standard deviation. The sensitivity of simulated ground motion intensity measures are subsequently compared against observational data. The preliminary results from this study indicate that uncertainty in the stress parameter and the rupture velocity have the most significant effect on the high frequency amplitudes. Conversely, magnitude uncertainty was found to be most influential on the spectral acceleration amplitudes at low frequencies. Further work is required to extend this preliminary study to exhaustively consider more events and to include parameter covariance. The ultimate results of this research will assist in the validation of the overall simulation method’s accuracy in capturing various rupture parameters, which is essential for the use of simulated ground motion models in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Saltwater Forest is a Dacrydium cupressinum-dominated lowland forest covering 9000 ha in south Westland, South Island, New Zealand. Four thousand hectares is managed for sustainable production of indigenous timber. The aim of this study was to provide an integrated analysis of soils, soil-landform relationships, and soil-vegetation relationships at broad and detailed scales. The broad scale understandings provide a framework in which existing or future studies can be placed and the detailed studies elucidate sources of soil and forest variability. Glacial landforms dominate. They include late Pleistocene lateral, terminal and ablation moraines, and outwash aggradation and degradation terraces. Deposits and landforms from six glacial advances have been recognised ranging from latest Last (Otira) Glaciation to Penultimate (Waimea) Glaciation. The absolute ages of landforms were established by analysis of the thickness and soil stratigraphy of loess coverbeds, augmented with radiocarbon dating and phytolith and pollen analysis. In the prevailing high rainfall of Westland soil formation is rapid. The rate of loess accretion in Saltwater Forest (ca. 30 mm ka⁻¹) has been low enough that soil formation and loess accretion took place contemporaneously. Soils formed in this manner are known as upbuilding soils. The significant difference between upbuilding pedogenesis and pedogenesis in a topdown sense into an existing sediment body is that each subsoil increment of an upbuilding soil has experienced processes of all horizons above. In Saltwater Forest subsoils of upbuilding soils are strongly altered because they have experienced the extremely acid environment of the soil surface at some earlier time. Some soil chronosequence studies in Westland have included upbuilding soils formed in loess as the older members of the sequence. Rates and types of processes inferred from these soils should be reviewed because upbuilding is a different pedogenic pathway to topdown pedogenesis. Landform age and morphology were used as a primary stratification for a study of the soil pattern and nature of soil variability in the 4000 ha production area of Saltwater Forest. The age of landforms (> 14 ka) and rapid soil formation mean that soils are uniformly strongly weathered and leached. Soils include Humic Organic Soils, Perch-gley Podzols, Acid Gley Soils, Allophanic Brown Soils, and Orthic or Pan Podzols. The major influence on the nature of soils is site hydrology which is determined by macroscale features of landforms (slope, relief, drainage density), mesoscale effects related to position on landforms, and microscale influences determined by microtopography and individual tree effects. Much of the soil variability arises at microscales so that it is not possible to map areas of uniform soils at practical map scales. The distribution of soil variability across spatial scales, in relation to the intensity of forest management, dictates that it is most appropriate to map soil complexes with boundaries coinciding with landforms. Disturbance of canopy trees is an important agent in forest dynamics. The frequency of forest disturbance in the production area of Saltwater Forest varies in a systematic way among landforms in accord with changes in abundance of different soils. The frequency of forest turnover is highest on landforms with the greatest abundance of extremely poorly-drained Organic Soils. As the abundance of better-drained soils increases the frequency of forest turnover declines. Changes in turnover frequency are reflected in the mean size and density of canopy trees (Dacrydium cupressinum) among landforms. Terrace and ablation moraine landforms with the greatest abundance of extremely poorly-drained soils have on average the smallest trees growing most densely. The steep lateral moraines, characterised by well drained soils, have fewer, larger trees. The changes manifested at the landform scale are an integration of processes operating over much shorter range as a result of short-range soil variability. The systematic changes in forest structure and turnover frequency among landforms and soils have important implications for sustainable forest management.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

A 3D high-resolution model of the geologic structure and associated seismic velocities in the Canterbury, New Zealand region is developed utilising data from depthconverted seismic reflection lines, petroleum and water well logs, cone penetration tests, and implicitly guided by existing contour maps and geologic cross sections in data sparse subregions. The model, developed using geostatistical Kriging, explicitly represents the significant and regionally recognisable geologic surfaces that mark the boundaries between geologic units with distinct lithology and age. The model is examined in the form of both geologic surface elevation contour maps as well as vertical cross sections of shear wave velocity, with the most prominent features being the Banks Peninsula Miocene-Pliocene volcanic edifice, and the Pegasus and Rakaia late Mesozoic-Neogene sedimentary basins. The adequacy of the modelled geologic surfaces is assessed through a residual analysis of point constraints used in the Kriging and qualitative comparisons with previous geologic models of subsets of the region. Seismic velocities for the lithological units between the geologic surfaces have also been derived, thus providing the necessary information for a Canterbury velocity model (CantVM) for use in physics-based seismic wave propagation. The developed model also has application for the determination of depths to specified shear wave velocities for use in empirical ground motion modelling, which is explicitly discussed via an example.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

© 2017 The Royal Society of New Zealand. This paper discusses simulated ground motion intensity, and its underlying modelling assumptions, for great earthquakes on the Alpine Fault. The simulations utilise the latest understanding of wave propagation physics, kinematic earthquake rupture descriptions and the three-dimensional nature of the Earth's crust in the South Island of New Zealand. The effect of hypocentre location is explicitly examined, which is found to lead to significant differences in ground motion intensities (quantified in the form of peak ground velocity, PGV) over the northern half and southwest of the South Island. Comparison with previously adopted empirical ground motion models also illustrates that the simulations, which explicitly model rupture directivity and basin-generated surface waves, lead to notably larger PGV amplitudes than the empirical predictions in the northern half of the South Island and Canterbury. The simulations performed in this paper have been adopted, as one possible ground motion prediction, in the ‘Project AF8’ Civil Defence Emergency Management exercise scenario. The similarity of the modelled ground motion features with those observed in recent worldwide earthquakes as well as similar simulations in other regions, and the notably higher simulated amplitudes than those from empirical predictions, may warrant a re-examination of regional impact assessments for major Alpine Fault earthquakes.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Since the early 1980s seismic hazard assessment in New Zealand has been based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The most recent version of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model, a PSHA model, was published by Stirling et al, in 2012. This model follows standard PSHA principals and combines a nation-wide model of active faults with a gridded point-source model based on the earthquake catalogue since 1840. These models are coupled with the ground-motion prediction equation of McVerry et al (2006). Additionally, we have developed a time-dependent clustering-based PSHA model for the Canterbury region (Gerstenberger et al, 2014) in response to the Canterbury earthquake sequence. We are now in the process of revising that national model. In this process we are investigating several of the fundamental assumptions in traditional PSHA and in how we modelled hazard in the past. For this project, we have three main focuses: 1) how do we design an optimal combination of multiple sources of information to produce the best forecast of earthquake rates in the next 50 years: can we improve upon a simple hybrid of fault sources and background sources, and can we better handle the uncertainties in the data and models (e.g., fault segmentation, frequency-magnitude distributions, time-dependence & clustering, low strain-rate areas, and subduction zone modelling)? 2) developing revised and new ground-motion predictions models including better capturing of epistemic uncertainty – a key focus in this work is developing a new strong ground motion catalogue for model development; and 3) how can we best quantify if changes we have made in our modelling are truly improvements? Throughout this process we are working toward incorporating numerical modelling results from physics based synthetic seismicity and ground-motion models.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This article presents a quantitative case study on the site amplification effect observed at Heathcote Valley, New Zealand, during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence for 10 events that produced notable ground acceleration amplitudes up to 1.4g and 2.2g in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. We performed finite element analyses of the dynamic response of the valley, accounting for the realistic basin geometry and the soil non-linear response. The site-specific simulations performed significantly better than both empirical ground motion models and physics based regional-scale ground motion simulations (which empirically accounts for the site effects), reducing the spectral acceleration prediction bias by a factor of two in short vibration periods. However, our validation exercise demonstrated that it was necessary to quantify the level of uncertainty in the estimated bedrock motion using multiple recorded events, to understand how much the simplistic model can over- or under-estimate the ground motion intensities. Inferences from the analyses suggest that the Rayleigh waves generated near the basin edge contributed significantly to the observed high frequency (f>3Hz) amplification, in addition to the amplification caused by the strong soil-rock impedance contrast at the site fundamental frequency. Models with and without considering soil non-linear response illustrate, as expected, that the linear elastic assumption severely overestimates ground motions in high frequencies for strong earthquakes, especially when the contribution of basin edge-generated Rayleigh waves becomes significant. Our analyses also demonstrate that the effect of pressure-dependent soil velocities on the high frequency ground motions is as significant as the amplification caused by the basin edge-generated Rayleigh waves.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

High-quality ground motion records are required for engineering applications including response history analysis, seismic hazard development, and validation of physics-based ground motion simulations. However, the determination of whether a ground motion record is high-quality is poorly handled by automation with mathematical functions and can become prohibitive if done manually. Machine learning applications are well-suited to this problem, and a previous feed-forward neural network was developed (Bellagamba et al. 2019) to determine high-quality records from small crustal events in the Canterbury and Wellington regions for simulation validation. This prior work was however limited by the omission of moderate-to-large magnitude events and those from other tectonic environments, as well as a lack of explicit determination of the minimum usable frequency of the ground motion. To address these shortcomings, an updated neural network was developed to predict the quality of ground motion records for all magnitudes and all tectonic sources—active shallow crustal, subduction intraslab, and subduction interface—in New Zealand. The predictive performance of the previous feed-forward neural network was matched by the neural network in the domain of small crustal records, and this level of predictive performance is now extended to all source magnitudes and types in New Zealand making the neural network applicable to global ground motion databases. Furthermore, the neural network provides quality and minimum usable frequency predictions for each of the three orthogonal components of a record which may then be mapped into a binary quality decision or otherwise applied as desired. This framework provides flexibility for the end user to predict high-quality records with various acceptability thresholds allowing for this neural network to be used in a range of applications.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Nature has endowed New Zealand with unique geologic, climatic, and biotic conditions. Her volcanic cones and majestic Southern Alps and her verdant plains and rolling hills provide a landscape as rugged and beautiful as will be found anywhere. Her indigenous fauna and flora are often quite different from that of the rest of the world and consequently have been of widespread interest to biologists everywhere. Her geologic youth and structure and her island climate, in combination with the biological resources, have made a land which is ecologically on edge. These natural endowments along with the manner in which she has utilized her land, have given New Zealand some of the most spectacular and rapid erosion to be found. It is quite evident that geologic and climatic conditions combine to give unusually high rates of natural erosion. Present topographic features indicate the past occurrence of large-scale flooding as well. Prior to the arrival of the Maori, it is very likely that most of the land mass of New Zealand below present bush lines was covered with indigenous bush or forest. Forest fires of a catastrophic nature undoubtedly occurred as a result of lightning, and volcanic eruptions. The exposed soils left by these catastrophes contributed to natural deterioration. While vast areas of forest cover were destroyed, they probably were healed by nature with forest or with grass or herbaceous cover. Further, it is probable that large areas in the mountains were, as they are now, subject to landslides and slipping due to earthquakes and excessive local rainfall. Again, the healing process was probably rapid in most of such exposed areas.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This dissertation addresses a diverse range of topics in the area of physics-based ground motion simulation with particular focus on the Canterbury, New Zealand region. The objectives achieved provide the means to perform hybrid broadband ground motion simulation and subsequently validates the simulation methodology employed. In particu- lar, the following topics are addressed: the development of a 3D seismic velocity model of the Canterbury region for broadband ground motion simulation; the development of a 3D geologic model of the interbedded Quaternary formations to provide insight on observed ground motions; and the investigation of systematic effects through ground motion sim- ulation of small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes. The paragraphs below outline each contribution in more detail. As a means to perform hybrid broadband ground motion simulation, a 3D model of the geologic structure and associated seismic velocities in the Canterbury region is devel- oped utilising data from depth-converted seismic reflection lines, petroleum and water well logs, cone penetration tests, and implicitly guided by existing contour maps and geologic cross sections in data sparse subregions. The model explicitly characterises five significant and regionally recognisable geologic surfaces that mark the boundaries between geologic units with distinct lithology and age, including the Banks Peninsula volcanics, which are noted to strongly influence seismic wave propagation. The Basement surface represents the base of the Canterbury sedimentary basin, where a large impedance contrast exists re- sulting in basin-generated waves. Seismic velocities for the lithological units between the geologic surfaces are derived from well logs, seismic reflection surveys, root mean square stacking velocities, empirical correlations, and benchmarked against a regional crustal model, thus providing the necessary information for a Canterbury velocity model for use in broadband seismic wave propagation. A 3D high-resolution model of the Quaternary geologic stratigraphic sequence in the Canterbury region is also developed utilising datasets of 527 high-quality water well logs, and 377 near-surface cone penetration test records. The model, developed using geostatistical Kriging, represents the complex interbedded regional Quaternary geology by characterising the boundaries between significant interbedded geologic formations as 3D surfaces including explicit modelling of the formation unconformities resulting from the Banks Peninsula volcanics. The stratigraphic layering present can result in complex wave propagation. The most prevalent trend observed in the surfaces was the downward dip from inland to the eastern coastline as a result of the dominant fluvial depositional environment of the terrestrial gravel formations. The developed model provides a benefi- cial contribution towards developing a comprehensive understanding of recorded ground motions in the region and also providing the necessary information for future site char- acterisation and site response analyses. To highlight the practicality of the model, an example illustrating the role of the model in constraining surface wave analysis-based shear wave velocity profiling is illustrated along with the calculation of transfer functions to quantify the effect of the interbedded geology on wave propagation. Lastly, an investigation of systematic biases in the (Graves and Pitarka, 2010, 2015) ground motion simulation methodology and the specific inputs used for the Canterbury region is presented considering 144 small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes. In the simulation of these earthquakes, the 3D Canterbury Velocity Model, developed as a part of this dissertation, is used for the low-frequency simulation, and a regional 1D velocity model for the high-frequency simulation. Representative results for individual earthquake sources are first presented to highlight the characteristics of the small-to-moderate mag- nitude earthquake simulations through waveforms, intensity measure scaling with source- to-site distance, and spectral bias of the individual events. Subsequently, a residual de- composition is performed to examine the between- and within-event residuals between observed data, and simulated and empirical predictions. By decomposing the residuals into between- and within-event residuals, the biases in source, path and site effects, and their causes, can be inferred. The residuals are comprehensively examined considering their aggregated characteristics, dependence on predictor variables, spatial distribution, and site-specific effects. The results of the simulation are also benchmarked against empir- ical ground motion models, where their similarities manifest from common components in their prediction. Ultimately, suggestions to improve the predictive capability of the simulations are presented as a result of the analysis.