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Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

In September 2010 and February 2011, the Canterbury region experienced devastating earthquakes with an estimated economic cost of over NZ$40 billion (Parker and Steenkamp, 2012; Timar et al., 2014; Potter et al., 2015). The insurance market played an important role in rebuilding the Canterbury region after the earthquakes. Homeowners, insurance and reinsurance markets and New Zealand government agencies faced a difficult task to manage the rebuild process. From an empirical and theoretic research viewpoint, the Christchurch disaster calls for an assessment of how the insurance market deals with such disasters in the future. Previous studies have investigated market responses to losses in global catastrophes by focusing on the insurance supply-side. This study investigates both demand-side and supply-side insurance market responses to the Christchurch earthquakes. Despite the fact that New Zealand is prone to seismic activities, there are scant previous studies in the area of earthquake insurance. This study does offer a unique opportunity to examine and document the New Zealand insurance market response to catastrophe risk, providing results critical for understanding market responses after major loss events in general. A review of previous studies shows higher premiums suppress demand, but how higher premiums and a higher probability of risk affect demand is still largely unknown. According to previous studies, the supply of disaster coverage is curtailed unless the market is subsidised, however, there is still unsettled discussion on why demand decreases with time from the previous disaster even when the supply of coverage is subsidised by the government. Natural disaster risks pose a set of challenges for insurance market players because of substantial ambiguity associated with the probability of such events occurring and high spatial correlation of catastrophe losses. Private insurance market inefficiencies due to high premiums and spatially concentrated risks calls for government intervention in the provision of natural disaster insurance to avert situations of noninsurance and underinsurance. Political economy considerations make it more likely for government support to be called for if many people are uninsured than if few people are uninsured. However, emergency assistance for property owners after catastrophe events can encourage most property owners to not buy insurance against natural disaster and develop adverse selection behaviour, generating larger future risks for homeowners and governments. On the demand-side, this study has developed an intertemporal model to examine how demand for insurance changes post-catastrophe, and how to model it theoretically. In this intertemporal model, insurance can be sought in two sequential periods of time, and at the second period, it is known whether or not a loss event happened in period one. The results show that period one demand for insurance increases relative to the standard single period model when the second period is taken into consideration, period two insurance demand is higher post-loss, higher than both the period one demand and the period two demand without a period one loss. To investigate policyholders experience from the demand-side perspective, a total of 1600 survey questionnaires were administered, and responses from 254 participants received representing a 16 percent response rate. Survey data was gathered from four institutions in Canterbury and is probably not representative of the entire population. The results of the survey show that the change from full replacement value policy to nominated replacement value policy is a key determinant of the direction of change in the level of insurance coverage after the earthquakes. The earthquakes also highlighted the plight of those who were underinsured, prompting policyholders to update their insurance coverage to reflect the estimated cost of re-building their property. The survey has added further evidence to the existing literature, such as those who have had a recent experience with disaster loss report increased risk perception if a similar event happens in future with females reporting a higher risk perception than males. Of the demographic variables, only gender has a relationship with changes in household cover. On the supply-side, this study has built a risk-based pricing model suitable to generate a competitive premium rate for natural disaster insurance cover. Using illustrative data from the Christchurch Red-zone suburbs, the model generates competitive premium rates for catastrophe risk. When the proposed model incorporates the new RMS high-definition New Zealand Earthquake Model, for example, insurers can find the model useful to identify losses at a granular level so as to calculate the competitive premium. This study observes that the key to the success of the New Zealand dual insurance system despite the high prevalence of catastrophe losses are; firstly the EQC’s flat-rate pricing structure keeps private insurance premiums affordable and very high nationwide homeowner take-up rates of natural disaster insurance. Secondly, private insurers and the EQC have an elaborate reinsurance arrangement in place. By efficiently transferring risk to the reinsurer, the cost of writing primary insurance is considerably reduced ultimately expanding primary insurance capacity and supply of insurance coverage.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text reads 'The new liquefaction?...' and the cartoon depicts a huge mass of 'insurance red tape' inside which is a man with a spade. Two people stare despairingly at the red tape and the man says 'How are we EVER gonna rebuild with this stuff bubbling up!' Context: The people are trying to rebuild their house after the Christchurch earthquakes and are having trouble with their insurance company. The Press has been contacted by people unable to get insurance to buy new homes, construct buildings or start businesses. Business leaders have called insurance delays a "cancer" eating away at the city's recovery, and Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee has acknowledged insurance is an "ongoing problem". (The Press - 24 August 2011) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We aim to investigate the role of insurance in business recovery following the devastating Christchurch earthquake in February, 22nd, 2011. We analyze data from two business surveys conducted after the earthquake to examine how insurance affected business operation in the aftermath of the earthquake both in the short-term and longer-term. For the short-term analysis, we use a combination of propensity score matching (PSM) and linear probability model (LPM) to analyze the data. We first estimate the propensity scores for insurance take-up of each firm conditional on the firm’s individual characteristics. Stratification based on the estimated propensity scores is used to match the treated (insured) and the control (uninsured) firms. We then estimate the probability of firms’ continuing operations with a set of control variables to account for the level of damage and disruption caused by the quake in each stratum. We find little evidence of any beneficial effect of insurance coverage on business continuity in the short-run. For the longer-term analysis, we analyze the available survey data using logistic regression. The result suggests that business interruption insurance significantly promotes increased level of long-term productivity for surviving firms following the earthquake.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

A man representing 'Chch' (Christchurch) walks a tightrope between two cliffs. Suddenly below there are piles of dollar notes from the 'AMI' and he says 'A safety net at last!' Context - Christchurch earthquake problems with insurance. Insurers are saying that they will only pay for repairs for houses in the Red zone that are destined for demolition but that are relatively undamaged. Maybe the cartoon is expressing an ironic response to AMI's 'total replacement' policy. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Cartoons about political and social issues in New Zealand and overseas. The cartoon has the words 'Tsunami Warning cancelled' in the centre. Above are the words 'The end is nigh... insurance running out! No more cover!' Below the word 'cancelled' are the words 'We have reinsurance!' Context - Civil Defence has cancelled a tsunami warning after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck off the Kermadec Islands this morning (7 July 2011) The tsunami image is used to illustrate the problems that could arise from lack of insurance in Christchurch. When their policies run out on 30 June Earthquake-hit Christchurch and Waimakariri councils are in danger of having no property insurance because as the CEO of Civic Assurance, which insures most councils, says, 'the company cannot buy reinsurance'. There was also a potential problem for home-owners when AMI Insurance, the largest insurer of homes in Christchurch, was threatening insolvency. However, AMI has announced that it has re-insurance cover for earthquakes and other natural disasters from tomorrow (1 July 2011) for the next year. The Government feared AMI Insurance's directors would wind up the company affecting a huge section of New Zealand's insurance market and derail the reconstruction of Christchurch, official documents confirm. AMI said it had doubled its cover for the year to June 2012 after three large quakes in the year to June 2011. (Stuff 30 June 2011) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).