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Images, eqnz.chch.2010

The farmer swore that his fence was erected in a straingt line, but mother nature had other ideas! Aftermath of the Saturday 4 September 2010 magnitude 7.1 earthquake at the previously unknown faultline along which the quake originated.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Numerous rockfalls released during the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence affected vital road sections for local commuters. We quantified rockfall fatality risk on two main routes by adapting a risk approach for roads originally developed for snow avalanche risk. We present results of the collective and individual fatality risks for traffic flow and waiting traffic. Waiting traffic scenarios particularly address the critical spatial-temporal dynamics of risk, which should be acknowledged in operational risk management. Comparing our results with other risks commonly experienced in New Zealand indicates that local rockfall risk is close to tolerability thresholds and likely exceeds acceptable risk.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Since the early 1980s seismic hazard assessment in New Zealand has been based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The most recent version of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model, a PSHA model, was published by Stirling et al, in 2012. This model follows standard PSHA principals and combines a nation-wide model of active faults with a gridded point-source model based on the earthquake catalogue since 1840. These models are coupled with the ground-motion prediction equation of McVerry et al (2006). Additionally, we have developed a time-dependent clustering-based PSHA model for the Canterbury region (Gerstenberger et al, 2014) in response to the Canterbury earthquake sequence. We are now in the process of revising that national model. In this process we are investigating several of the fundamental assumptions in traditional PSHA and in how we modelled hazard in the past. For this project, we have three main focuses: 1) how do we design an optimal combination of multiple sources of information to produce the best forecast of earthquake rates in the next 50 years: can we improve upon a simple hybrid of fault sources and background sources, and can we better handle the uncertainties in the data and models (e.g., fault segmentation, frequency-magnitude distributions, time-dependence & clustering, low strain-rate areas, and subduction zone modelling)? 2) developing revised and new ground-motion predictions models including better capturing of epistemic uncertainty – a key focus in this work is developing a new strong ground motion catalogue for model development; and 3) how can we best quantify if changes we have made in our modelling are truly improvements? Throughout this process we are working toward incorporating numerical modelling results from physics based synthetic seismicity and ground-motion models.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This study investigates evidence for linkages and fault interactions centred on the Cust Anticline in Northwest Canterbury between Starvation Hill to the southwest and the Ashley and Loburn faults to the northeast. An integrated programme of geologic, geomorphic, paleo-seismic and geophysical analyses was undertaken owing to a lack of surface exposures and difficulty in distinguishing active tectonic features from fluvial and/or aeolian features across the low-relief Canterbury Plains. LiDAR analysis identified surface expression of several previously unrecognised active fault traces across the low-relief aggradation surfaces of the Canterbury Plains. Their presence is consistent with predictions of a fault relay exploiting the structural mesh across the region. This is characterised by interactions of northeast-striking contractional faults and a series of re-activating inherited Late Cretaceous normal faults, the latter now functioning as E–W-striking dextral transpressive faults. LiDAR also allowed for detailed analysis of the surface expression of individual faults and folds across the Cust Anticline contractional restraining bend, which is evolving as a pop-up structure within the newly established dextral shear system that is exploiting the inherited, now re-activated, basement fault zone. Paleo-seismic trenches were located on the crest of the western arm of the Cust Anticline and across a previously unrecognised E–W-striking fault trace, immediately southwest of the steeply plunging Cust Anticline termination. These studies confirmed the location and structural style of north-northeast-striking faults and an E–W-striking fault associated with the development of this structural culmination. A review of available industry seismic reflection lines emphasised the presence of a series of common structural styles having the same underlying structural drivers but with varying degrees of development and expression, both in the seismic profiles and in surface elevations across the study area. Based on LiDAR surface mapping and preliminary re-analysis of industry seismic reflection data, four fault zones are identified across the restraining bend structural culminations, which together form the proposed Oxford–Cust–Ashley Fault System. The 2010–2012 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence showed many similarities to the structural pattern established across the Oxford–Cust–Ashley Fault System, emphasising the importance of identification and characterization of presently hidden fault sources, and the understanding of fault network linkages, in order to improve constraints on earthquake source potential. Improved understanding of potentially-interactive fault sources in Northwest Canterbury, with the potential for combined initial fault rupture and spatial and temporal rupture propagation across this fault system, can be used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the region, which is essential for the suitability and sustainability of future social and economic development.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Canadian-born Mark Quigley is a senior lecturer in Active Tectonics and Geomorphology at the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of Canterbury. He's become an unwitting star as the go-to scientific voice throughout the Canterbury earthquakes, using plain language to help people understand what's behind the earthquake sequence. He's also had his own personal quake story - his Avonside home was badly damaged and is in the red zone.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Victorian Authorities are warning residents of significant aftershocks following on from the magnitude 5.8 earthquake which shook Melbourne around 9am yesterday, causing significant structural damage across the city. The University of Melbourne's Dr Mark Quigley is a professor of tectonics, who became a familiar voice and face through the Christchurch quakes. Our producer Matthew Theunissen asked him how yesterday's quake compared to those he experienced in Christchurch.

Images, eqnz.chch.2010

The farmer swore that his fence and hedge were in a straingt line, but mother nature had other ideas! Aftermath of the Saturday 4 September 2010 magnitude 7.1 earthquake at the previously unknown faultline along which the quake originated.

Images, eqnz.chch.2010

The ground slipped laterally at this previously unknown faultline across Highfield Road in mid-Canterbury, resulting in a relative displacement of at least 2 metres and the magnitude 7.1 earthquake on Saturday 4 September 2010. Note the now misaligned fence posts, hedge and road.

Images, eqnz.chch.2010

Cracks have ripped through external columns of this 7 storey building (corner of Hereford Street / Manchester Street), and efforts are being made to shore up and strengthen it to save it from demolition after it suffered structural damage in the magnitude 7.1 earthquake that struck Christchurch on Saturday 4 September 2010.

Images, eqnz.chch.2010

Cracks have ripped through external columns of this 7 storey building (corner of Hereford Street / Manchester Street), and efforts are being made to shore up and strengthen it to save it from demolition after it suffered structural damage in the magnitude 7.1 earthquake that struck Christchurch on Saturday 4 September 2010.

Images, eqnz.chch.2010

Cracks have ripped through external columns of this 7 storey building (corner of Hereford Street / Manchester Street), and efforts are being made to shore up and strengthen it to save it from demolition after it suffered structural damage in the magnitude 7.1 earthquake that struck Christchurch on Saturday 4 September 2010.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

High-quality ground motion records are required for engineering applications including response history analysis, seismic hazard development, and validation of physics-based ground motion simulations. However, the determination of whether a ground motion record is high-quality is poorly handled by automation with mathematical functions and can become prohibitive if done manually. Machine learning applications are well-suited to this problem, and a previous feed-forward neural network was developed (Bellagamba et al. 2019) to determine high-quality records from small crustal events in the Canterbury and Wellington regions for simulation validation. This prior work was however limited by the omission of moderate-to-large magnitude events and those from other tectonic environments, as well as a lack of explicit determination of the minimum usable frequency of the ground motion. To address these shortcomings, an updated neural network was developed to predict the quality of ground motion records for all magnitudes and all tectonic sources—active shallow crustal, subduction intraslab, and subduction interface—in New Zealand. The predictive performance of the previous feed-forward neural network was matched by the neural network in the domain of small crustal records, and this level of predictive performance is now extended to all source magnitudes and types in New Zealand making the neural network applicable to global ground motion databases. Furthermore, the neural network provides quality and minimum usable frequency predictions for each of the three orthogonal components of a record which may then be mapped into a binary quality decision or otherwise applied as desired. This framework provides flexibility for the end user to predict high-quality records with various acceptability thresholds allowing for this neural network to be used in a range of applications.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Johanna McCord moved to Christchurch just before the first earthquake in September nearly four years ago. But she fell in love with the city, regardless of its tectonic troubles. Johanna has just set up a blog called 'We Built This City' which is designed to showcase some of Christchurch's businesses and events. More than an information hub, it takes a personal look at some of the people who are really making a difference in the quake struck city.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Canterbury earthquakes, which involved widespread damage in the February 2011 event and ongoing aftershocks near the Christchurch central business district (CBD), presented decision-makers with many recovery challenges. This paper identifies major government decisions, challenges, and lessons in the early recovery of Christchurch based on 23 key-informant interviews conducted 15 months after the February 2011 earthquake. It then focuses on one of the most important decisions – maintaining the cordon around the heavily damaged CBD – and investigates its impacts. The cordon displaced 50,000 central city jobs, raised questions about (and provided new opportunities for) the long-term viability of downtown, influenced the number and practice of building demolitions, and affected debris management; despite being associated with substantial losses, the cordon was commonly viewed as necessary, and provided some benefits in facilitating recovery. Management of the cordon poses important lessons for planning for catastrophic urban earthquakes around the world.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Anyone keeping a global tally of recent disasters is likely to be asking: What role will the hazards and disasters of coastal plains play in the lives and economies of 21st century humanity? In this article, we reflect on this question using examples of how different types of coastal land performed during the Christchurch and other earthquake events to examine the complex of coastal-tectonic hazards that are being constructed in the Tokyo megacity

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Rock mass defect controlled deep-seated landslides are widespread within the deeply incised landscapes formed in Tertiary soft rock terrain in New Zealand. The basal failure surfaces of deep-seated slope failures are defined by thin, comparatively weak and laterally continuous bedding parallel layers termed critical stratigraphic horizons. These horizons have a sedimentary origin and have typically experienced some prior tectonically induced shear displacement at the time of slope failure. The key controls on the occurrence and form of deep-seated landslides are considered in terms of rock mass defect properties and tectonic and climatic forcing. The selection of two representative catchments (in southern Hawke's Bay and North Canterbury) affected by tectonic and climatic forcing has shown that the spatial and temporal initiation of deep-seated bedrock landslides in New Zealand Tertiary soft rock terrain is a predictable rather than a stochastic process; and that deep-seated landslides as a mass wasting process have a controlling role in landscape evolution in many catchments formed in Tertiary soft rock terrain. The Ella Landslide in North Canterbury is a deep-seated (~85 m) translational block slide that has failed on a 5 - 10 mm thick, kaolinite-rich, pre-sheared critical stratigraphic horizon. The residual strength of this sedimentary horizon, (C'R 2.6 - 2.7 kPa, and Ѳ'R = 16 - 21°), compared to the peak strength of the dominant lithology (C' = 176 kPa, and Ѳ' = 37°) defines a high strength contrast in the succession, and therefore a critical location for the basal failure surface of deep-seated slope failures. The (early to mid Holocene) Ella Landslide debris formed a large landslide dam in the Kate Stream catchment and this has significantly retarded rates of mass wasting in the middle catchment. Numerical stability analysis shows that this slope failure would have most likely required the influence of earthquake induced strong ground motion and the event is tentatively correlated to a Holocene event on the Omihi Fault. The influence of this slope failure is likely to affect the geomorphic development of the catchment on a scale of 10⁴ - 10⁵ years. In deeply incised catchments at the southeastern margin of the Maraetotara Plateau, southern Hawke's Bay, numerous widespread deep-seated landslides have basal failure surfaces defined by critical stratigraphic horizons in the form of thin « 20 mm) tuffaceous beds in the Makara Formation flysch (alternating sandstone and mudstone units). The geometry of deep-seated slope failures is controlled by these regularly spaced (~70 m), very weak critical stratigraphic horizons (C'R 3.8 - 14.2 kPa, and Ѳ'R = 2 - 5°), and regularly spaced (~45 m) and steeply dipping (-50°) critical conjugate joint/fault sets, which act as slide block release surfaces. Numerical stability analysis and historical precedent show that the temporal initiation of deep-seated landslides is directly controlled by short term tectonic forcing in the form of periodic large magnitude earthquakes. Published seismic hazard data shows the recurrence interval of earthquakes producing strong ground motions of 0.35g at the study site is every 150 yrs, however, if subduction thrust events are considered the level of strong ground motion may be much higher. Multiple occurrences of deep-seated slope failure are correlated to failure on the same critical stratigraphic horizon, in some cases in three adjacent catchments. Failure on multiple critical stratigraphic horizons leads to the development of a "stepped" landscape morphology. This slope form will be maintained during successive accelerated stream incision events (controlled by long term tectonic and climatic forcing) for as long as catchments are developing in this specific succession. Rock mass defect controlled deep seated landslides are controlling catchment head progression, landscape evolution and hillslope morphology in the Hawke's Bay study area and this has significant implications for the development of numerical landscape evolution models of landscapes formed in similar strata. Whereas the only known numerical model to consider deep seated landslides as an erosion process (ZSCAPE) considers them as stochastic in time and space, this study shows that this could not be applied to a landscape where the widespread spatial occurrence of deep-seated landslides is controlled by rock mass defects. In both of the study areas for this project, and by implication in many catchments in Tertiary soft rock terrain, deep-seated landslides controlled by rock mass defect strength, spacing and orientation, and tectonic and climatic forcing have an underlying control on landscape evolution. This study quantifies parameters for the development of numerical landscape evolution models that would assess the role of specific parameters, such as uplift rates, incision rates and earthquake recurrence in catchment evolution in Tertiary soft rock terrain.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The south Leader Fault (SLF) is a newly documented active structure that ruptured the surface during the Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake. The Leader Fault is a NNE trending oblique left lateral thrust that links the predominantly right lateral ‘The Humps’ and Conway-Charwell faults. The present research uses LiDAR at 0.5 m resolution and field mapping to determine the factors controlling the surface geometries and kinematics of the south Leader Fault ruptures at the ground surface. The SLF zone is up to 2km wide and comprises a series of echelon NE-striking thrusts linked by near-vertical N-S striking faults. The thrusts are upthrown to the west by up to 1 m and dip 35-45°. Thrust slip surfaces are parallel with Cretaceous-Cenozoic bedding and may reflect flexural slip folding. By contrast, the northerly striking faults dip steeply (65° west- 85° east), and accommodate up to 3m of oblique left lateral displacement at the ground surface and displace Cenozoic bedding. Some of the SLF has been mapped in bedrock, although none were known to be active prior to the earthquake or have a strong topographic expression. The complexity of fault rupture and the width of the fault zone appears to reflect the occurrence of faulting and folding at the ground surface during the earthquake.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck North Canterbury, on the east coast of New Zealand’s South Island on 14 November 2016 had significant impacts and implications for the community of Kaikōura and surrounding settlements. The magnitude and scope of this event has resulted in extensive and ongoing geological and geophysical research into the event. The current paper complements this research by providing a review of existing social science research and offering new analysis of the impact of the earthquake and its aftermath on community resilience in Kaikōura over the past five years. Results demonstrate the significant economic implications for tourism, and primary industries. Recovery has been slow, and largely dependent on restoring transportation networks, which helped catalyse cooperation among local hospitality providers. Challenges remain, however, and not all sectors or households have benefited equally from post-quake opportunities, and long-term recovery trajectories continue to be hampered by COVID-19 pandemic. The multiple ongoing and future stressors faced by Kaikōura require integrated and equitable approaches in order to build capability and capacity for locally based development pathways to ensure long-term community resilience.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Geological research in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake, New Zealand, was necessary due to the importance and perishability of field data. It also reflects a real desire on the part of researchers to contribute not only to immediate scientific understanding but also to the societal recovery effort by enhancing knowledge of the event for the benefit of affected communities, civil defence organizations and regional and national decision makers. This commitment to outreach and engagement is consistent with the recent IAPG statement of Geoethics. More immediately, it was informed by experience of the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake sequence. After that earlier disaster, intense interactions between researchers and various response agencies as well as local communities informed the development and dissemination of a set of ethical guidelines for researchers immediately following the Mw7.8 14 November 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake. In this presentation, I argue that ethical engagement of this kind is the key to gathering high quality research data immediately after the event. Creating trusting and mutually respectful, mutually beneficial relationships is also vital to ongoing engagement to facilitate further “in depth” research in collaboration with communities.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

The Mѡ=7.1 Darfield (Canterbury) earthquake struck on 4 September 2010, approximately 45 km west of Christchurch, New Zealand. It revealed a previously unknown fault (the Greendale fault) and caused billions of dollars of damage due to high peak ground velocities and extensive liquefaction. It also triggered the Mw=6.3 Christchurch earthquake on 22 February 2011, which caused further damage and the loss of 185 lives. The objective of this research was to determine the relationship between stress and seismic properties in a seismically active region using manually-picked P and S wave arrival times from the aftershock sequence between 8 September 2010-13 January 2011 to estimate shear-wave splitting (SWS) parameters, VP =VS-ratios, anisotropy (delay-time tomography), focal mechanisms, and tectonic stress on the Canterbury plains. The maximum horizontal stress direction was highly consistent in the plains, with an average value of SHmax=116 18 . However, the estimates showed variation in SHmax near the fault, with one estimate rotating by as much as 30° counter-clockwise. This suggests heterogeneity of stress at the fault, though the cause remains unclear. Orientations of the principal stresses predominantly indicate a strike-slip regime, but there are possible thrust regimes to the west and north/east of the fault. The SWS fast directions (ø) on the plains show alignment with SHmax at the majority of stations, indicating stress controlled anisotropy. However, structural effects appear more dominant in the neighbouring regions of the Southern Alps and Banks Peninsula.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Despite over a century of study, the relationship between lunar cycles and earthquakes remains controversial and difficult to quantitatively investigate. Perhaps as a consequence, major earthquakes around the globe are frequently followed by 'prediction' claims, using lunar cycles, that generate media furore and pressure scientists to provide resolute answers. The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand were no exception; significant media attention was given to lunarderived earthquake predictions by non-scientists, even though the predictions were merely 'opinions' and were not based on any statistically robust temporal or causal relationships. This thesis provides a framework for studying lunisolar earthquake temporal relationships by developing replicable statistical methodology based on peer reviewed literature. Notable in the methodology is a high accuracy ephemeris, called ECLPSE, designed specifically by the author for use on earthquake catalogs, and a model for performing phase angle analysis. The statistical tests were carried out on two 'declustered' seismic catalogs, one containing the aftershocks from the Mw7.1 earthquake in Canterbury, and the other containing Australian seismicity from the past two decades. Australia is an intraplate setting far removed from active plate boundaries and Canterbury is proximal to a plate boundary, thus allowing for comparison based on tectonic regime and corresponding tectonic loading rate. No strong, conclusive, statistical correlations were found at any level of the earthquake catalogs, looking at large events, onshore events, offshore events, and the fault type of some events. This was concluded using Schuster's test of significance with α=5% and analysis of standard deviations. A few weak correlations, with p-5-10% of rejecting the null hypothesis, and anomalous standard deviations were found, but these are difficult to interpret. The results invalidate the statistical robustness of 'earthquake predictions' using lunisolar parameters in this instance. An ambitious researcher could improve on the quality of the results and on the range of parameters analyzed. The conclusions of the thesis raise more questions than answers, but the thesis provides an adaptable methodology that can be used to further investigation the problem.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Leader Fault was one of at least 17 faults that ruptured the ground surface across the northeastern South Island of New Zealand during the Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake. The southern ~6 km of the Leader Fault, here referred to as the South Leader Fault (SLF), ruptured the North Canterbury (tectonic) Domain and is the primary focus of this study. The main objective of the thesis is to understand the key factors that contributed to the geometry and kinematics of the 2016 SLF rupture and its intersection with The Humps Fault (HF). This thesis employs a combination of techniques to achieve the primary objective, including detailed mapping of the bedrock geology, geomorphology and 2016 rupture, measurement of 2016 ground surface displacements, kinematic analysis of slip vectors from the earthquake, and logging of a single natural exposure across a 2016 rupture that was treated as a paleoseismic trench. The resulting datasets were collected in the field, from terrestrial LiDAR and InSAR imagery, and from historical (pre-earthquake) aerial photographs for a ~11 km2 study area. Surface ruptures in the study area are a miniature version of the entire rupture from the earthquake; they are geometrically and kinematically complex, with many individual and discontinuous segments of varying orientations and slip senses which are distributed across a zone up to ~3.5 km wide. Despite this variability, three main groups of ruptures have been identified. These are: 1) NE-SW striking, shallow to moderate dipping (25-45°W) faults that are approximately parallel to Cenozoic bedding with mainly reverse dip-slip and, and for the purposes of this thesis, are considered to be part of the SLF. 2) N-S striking, steeply dipping (~85°E) oblique sinistral faults that are up to the west and part of the SLF. 3) E-NE striking, moderate to steeply dipping (45-68°N) dextral reverse faults which are part of the HF. Bedding-parallel faults are interpreted to be flexural slip structures formed during folding of the near-surface Cenozoic strata, while the steeply dipping SLF ruptured a pre-existing bedrock fault which has little topographic expression. Groups 1 and 2 faults were both locally used for gravitational failure during the earthquake. Despite this non-tectonic fault movement, the slip vectors for faults that ruptured during the earthquake are broadly consistent with NCD tectonics and the regional ~100-120° trend of the principal horizontal stress/strain axes. Previous earthquake activity on the SLF is required by its displacement of Cenozoic formations but Late Quaternary slip on the fault prior to 2016 is neither supported by pre-existing fault scarps nor by changes in topography across the fault. By contrast, at least two earthquakes (including 2016) appear to have ruptured the HF from the mid Holocene, consistent with recurrence intervals of no more than ~7 kyr, and with preliminary observations from trenches on the fault farther to the west. The disparity in paleoearthquake records of the two faults suggests that they typically do not rupture together, thus it is concluded that the HF-SLF rupture pattern observed in the Kaikōura Earthquake rarely occurs in a single earthquake.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This paper presents the preliminary findings of a study on the resilience and recovery of organisations following the Darfield earthquake in New Zealand on 4 September 2010. Sampling included organisations proximal and distal to the fault trace, organisations located within central business districts, and organisations from seven diverse industry sectors. The research captured information on the challenges to, the impacts on, and the reflections of the organisations in the first months of recovery. Organisations in central business districts and in the hospitality sector were most likely to close while organisations that had perishable stock and livestock were more heavily reliant on critical services. Staff well-being, cash flow, and customer loss were major concerns for organisations across all sectors. For all organisations, the most helpful factors in mitigating the effects of the earthquake to be their relationship with staff, the design and type of buildings, and critical service continuity or swift reinstatement of services.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

A zone of active tectonism occurs in mid and north Canterbury, from the Rakaia to the Waipara Rivers, which coincides with seismicity concentrations and several Quaternary surface anomalies and is here defined as the Porters Pass Tectonic Zone. Although parallel to the Marlborough faults to the north, the lack of regional definition suggests this zone is much younger in its inception reflecting a southward movement of the plate rotation vector. The objectives of this study were to map the structures associated with this zone in the segment between the Rakaia and Waimakariri Rivers with detailed analysis concentrated in the upper Kawai Valley. Quaternary offsets on the main lineament of the Porters Pass Fault were traced through the area and evidence for the rate of movement, probable magnitudes and return periods of related seismic events was sought. The basement was found to be complicated by pre-existing deformation structures in Torlesse Group rocks which have been subsequently been re-activated or rotated by recent fault movement probably beginning in the Pleistocene. This phase is dominantly thrusting and uplift has lead to the erosion of most of the overlying sedimentary cover. Remnants of the Cret-Tertiary sediments still remain as fault-bounded packets. Evidence suggests that a change to development of a regional lateral shear associated with the Porters Pass Tectonic Zone transects the thrust system with complex interaction between the older reverse and new strike-slip faults. Offset rates along the segments of the Porters Pass Fault are not well constrained but are believed to be approximately in the range of 11-13 mm/year for at least the last 130,000 years. This rate is similar to other large faults in the Marlborough region. Two earthquake events have been identified and dated at 600 and 2000 years ago, with a magnitude of greater than 6.5. Evidence suggests characteristic earthquakes along the Porters Pass Fault are greater than Magnitude 7. This result has some major ramifications for the expected seismic hazards for nearby Christchurch.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Astrologer Ken Ring sits at his desk in his study surrounded by ancient scrolls and alchemical instruments; three people stand nearby awaiting advice. Ken Ring says 'Well, predicting a once-in-a-million year movement of tectonic plates is one thing... but predicting when officials will understand the plight of companies affected by it...' Context - Business people in Christchurch in the weeks following the earthquake are becoming increasingly frustrated at their inability to gain access to premises that have been made out of bounds because of potential danger. This has resulted in protests in which police physically intervened when several protesters went inside the cordon. Colour and black and white versions of this cartoon are available Quantity: 2 digital cartoon(s).

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

In this paper we introduce CityViewAR, a mobile outdoor Augmented Reality (AR) application for providing AR information visualization on a city scale. The CityViewAR application was developed to provide geographical information about the city of Christchurch, which was hit by several major earthquakes in 2010 and 2011. The application provides information about destroyed buildings and historical sites that were affected by the earthquakes. The geo-located content is provided in a number of formats including 2D map views, AR visualization of 3D models of buildings on-site, immersive panorama photographs, and list views. The paper describes the iterative design and implementation details of the application, and gives one of the first examples of a study comparing user response to AR and non-AR viewing in a mobile tourism application. Results show that making such information easily accessible to the public in a number of formats could help people to have richer experience about cities. We provide guidelines that will be useful for people developing mobile AR applications for city-scale tourism or outdoor guiding, and discuss how the underlying technology could be used for applications in other areas.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

In the last two decades, New Zealand (NZ) has experienced significant earthquakes, including the 2010 M 7.2 Darfield, 2011 M 6.2 Christchurch, and 2016 M 7.8 Kaikōura events. Amongst these large events, tens of thousands of smaller earthquakes have occurred. While previous event and ground-motion databases have analyzed these events, many events below M 4 have gone undetected. The goal of this study is to expand on previous databases, particularly for small magnitude (M<4) and low-amplitude ground motions. This new database enables a greater understanding of regional variations within NZ and contributes to the validity of internationally developed ground-motion models. The database includes event locations and magnitude estimates with uncertainty considerations, and tectonic type assessed in a hierarchical manner. Ground motions are extracted from the GeoNet FDSN server and assessed for quality using a neural network classification approach. A deep neural network approach is also utilized for picking P and S phases for determination of event hypocentres. Relative hypocentres are further improved by double-difference relocation and will contribute toward developing shallow (< 50 km) seismic tomography models. Analysis of the resulting database is compared with previous studies for discussion of implications toward national hazard prediction models.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

We present ground motion simulations of the Porters Pass (PP) fault in the Canterbury region of New Zealand; a major active source near Christchurch city. The active segment of the PP fault has an inferred length of 82 km and a mostly strike-slip sense of movement. The PP fault slip makes up approximately 10% of the total 37 mm/yr margin-parallel plate motion and also comprises a significant proportion of the total strain budget in regional tectonics. Given that the closest segment of the fault is less than 45 km from Christchurch city, the PP fault is crucial for accurate earthquake hazard assessment for this major population centre. We have employed the hybrid simulation methodology of Graves and Pitarka (2010, 2015), which combines low (f<1 Hz) and high (f>1 Hz) frequencies into a broadband spectrum. We have used validations from three moderate magnitude events (𝑀𝑤4.6 Sept 04, 2010; 𝑀𝑤4.6 Nov 06, 2010; 𝑀𝑤4.9 Apr 29, 2011) to build confidence for the 𝑀𝑤 > 7 PP simulations. Thus far, our simulations include multiple rupture scenarios which test the impacts of hypocentre location and the finite-fault stochastic rupture representation of the source itself. In particular, we have identified the need to use location-specific 1D 𝑉𝑠/𝑉𝑝 models for the high frequency part of the simulations to better match observations.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Natural hazard reviews reveal increases in disaster impacts nowhere more pronounced than in coastal settlements. Despite efforts to enhance hazard resilience, the common trend remains to keep producing disaster prone places. This paper explicitly explores hazard versus multi-hazard concepts to illustrate how different conceptualizations can enhance or reduce settlement resilience. Understandings gained were combined with onthe-ground lessons from earthquake and flooding experiences to develop of a novel ‘first cut’ approach for analyzing key multi-hazard interconnections, and to evaluate resilience enhancing opportunities. Traditional disaster resilience efforts often consider different hazard types discretely. However, recent events in Christchurch, a New Zealand city that is part of the 100 Resilient Cities network, highlight the need to analyze the interrelated nature of different hazards, especially for enhancing lifelines system resilience. Our overview of the Christchurch case study demonstrates that seismic, hydrological, shallow-earth, and coastal hazards can be fundamentally interconnected, with catastrophic results where such interconnections go unrecognized. In response, we have begun to develop a simple approach for use by different stakeholders to support resilience planning, pre and post disaster, by: drawing attention to natural and built environment multi-hazard links in general; illustrating a ‘first cut’ tool for uncovering earthquake-flooding multi-hazard links in particular; and providing a basis for reviewing resilience strategy effectiveness in multi-hazard prone environments. This framework has particular application to tectonically active areas exposed to climate-change issues.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The structure and geomorphology of active orogens evolves on time scales ranging from a single earthquake to millions of years of tectonic deformation. Analysis of crustal deformation using new and established remote sensing techniques, and integration of these data with field mapping, geochronology and the sedimentary record, create new opportunities to understand orogenic evolution over these timescales. Timor Leste (East Timor) lies on the northern collisional boundary between continental crust from the Australian Plate and the Banda volcanic arc. GPS studies have indicated that the island of Timor is actively shortening. Field mapping and fault kinematic analysis of an emergent Pliocene marine sequence identifies gentle folding, overprinted by a predominance of NW-SE oriented dextral-normal faults and NE-SW oriented sinistral-normal faults that collectively bound large (5-20km2) bedrock massifs throughout the island. These fault systems intersect at non-Andersonian conjugate angles of approximately 120° and accommodate an estimated 20 km of orogen-parallel extension. Folding of Pliocene rocks in Timor may represent an early episode of contraction but the overall pattern of deformation is one of lateral crustal extrusion sub-parallel to the Banda Arc. Stratigraphic relationships suggest that extrusion began prior to 5.5 Ma, during and after initial uplift of the orogen. Sedimentological, geochemical and Nd isotope data indicate that the island of Timor was emergent and shedding terrigenous sediment into carbonate basins prior to 4.5 Ma. Synorogenic tectonic and sedimentary phases initiated almost synchronously across much of Timor Leste and <2 Myr before similar events in West Timor. An increase in plate coupling along this obliquely converging boundary, due to subduction of an outlying continental plateau at the Banda Trench, is proposed as a mechanism for uplift that accounts for orogen-parallel extension and early uplift of Timor Leste. Rapid bathymetric changes around Timor are likely to have played an important role in evolution of the Indonesian Seaway. The 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield (Canterbury) earthquake in New Zealand was complex, involving multiple faults with strike-slip, reverse and normal displacements. Multi-temporal cadastral surveying and airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) surveys allowed surface deformation at the junction of three faults to be analyzed in this study in unprecedented detail. A nested, localized restraining stepover with contractional bulging was identified in an area with the overall fault structure of a releasing bend, highlighting the surface complexities that may develop in fault interaction zones during a single earthquake sequence. The earthquake also caused river avulsion and flooding in this area. Geomorphic investigations of these rivers prior to the earthquake identify plausible precursory patterns, including channel migration and narrowing. Comparison of the pre and post-earthquake geomorphology of the fault rupture also suggests that a subtle scarp or groove was present along much of the trace prior to the Darfield earthquake. Hydrogeology and well logs support a hypothesis of extended slip history and suggests that that the Selwyn River fan may be infilling a graben that has accumulated late Quaternary vertical slip of <30 m. Investigating fault behavior, geomorphic and sedimentary responses over a multitude of time-scales and at different study sites provides insights into fault interactions and orogenesis during single earthquakes and over millions of years of plate boundary deformation.