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Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

The Christchurch region of New Zealand experienced a series of major earthquakes and aftershocks between September 2010 and June 2011 which caused severe damage to the city’s infrastructure. The performance of tilt-up precast concrete buildings was investigated and initial observations are presented here. In general, tilt-up buildings performed well during all three major earthquakes, with mostly only minor, repairable damage occurring. For the in-plane loading direction, both loadbearing and cladding panels behaved exceptionally well, with no significant damage or failure observed in panels and their connections. A limited number of connection failures occurred due to large out-of-plane panel inertia forces. In several buildings, the connections between the panel and the internal structural frame appeared to be the weakest link, lacking in both strength and ductility. This weakness in the out-of-plane load path should be prevented in future designs.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

During the Christchurch earthquake of February 2011, several midrise reinforced concrete masonry (RCM) buildings showed performance levels that fall in the range of life safety to near collapse. A case study of one of these buildings, a six-story RCM building deemed to have reached the near collapse performance level, is presented in this paper. The RCM walls on the second floor failed due to toe crushing, reducing the building's lateral resistance in the east–west direction. A three-dimensional (3-D) nonlinear dynamic analysis was conducted to simulate the development of the governing failure mechanism. Analysis results showed that the walls that were damaged were subjected to large compression loads during the earthquake, which caused an increase in their in-plane lateral strength but reduced their ductility capacity. After toe crushing failure, axial instability of the model was prevented by a redistribution of gravity loads. VoR - Version of Record

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings have repeatedly been shown to perform poorly in large magnitude earthquakes, with both New Zealand and Australia having a history of past earthquakes that have resulted in fatalities due to collapsed URM buildings. A comparison is presented here of the URM building stock and the seismic vulnerability of Christchurch and Adelaide in order to demonstrate the relevance to Australian cities of observations in Christchurch resulting from the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquake swarm. It is shown that the materials, architecture and hence earthquake strength of URM buildings in both countries is comparable and that Adelaide and other cities of Australia have seismic vulnerability sufficient to cause major damage to their URM buildings should a design level earthquake occur. Such an earthquake is expected to cause major building damage, and fatalities should be expected.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

A man struggles to hold upright a rigid and obstinate man who is shaking like an earthquake. The man pushing says 'That's NOT what we meant by quake strengthening Aaron!' Context: Aaron Gilmore is a councillor, a new councillor, and has been bucking the trend when it comes to voting for the CEO Tony Marryatt who is tied up with CERA, the canterbury earthquake authority, by publicly making his personal views known to the public on radio etc before the voting has been cast. Councillors are meant to present an unbiased facade when it comes to voting. Gilmore was talking to the media and in obvious support of Marryatt....the result being that there was pressure on Gilmore to abstain from voting and stand down from the process. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text at top reads 'Some Christchurch suburbs to move?... The cartoon shows three complete suburbs that have been dug up and are now being flown by helicopters attached to tall towers to their new spots on the Australian Gold Coast. Someone in one of the houses on the move yells 'Woohoo! Yeehaa! Well... As NZ and Ozzie are such great mates... Gold Coast here we come!' Context - In some cases where whole communities have to move because the earthquakes have made it impossible for them to remain in their present locations, many in the community have elected to try to move and relocate together in order to retain their old neighbours and community spirit. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research Papers, Lincoln University

This paper identifies and analyses the networks of support for tangata whaiora (mental health clients) utilising a kaupapa Mäori health service following the Ötautahi/Christchurch earthquakes in Aotearoa New Zealand from 2010 to 2012. Semi- structured interviews were undertaken with 39 participants, comprising clients (Mäori and Päkehä), staff, managers and board members of a kaupapa Mäori provider in the city. Selected quotes are presented alongside a social network analysis of the support accessed by all participants. Results show the signifi cant isolation of both Mäori and Päkehä mental health clients post- disaster and the complexity of individuals and collectives dealing with temporally and spatially overlapping hazards and disasters at personal, whänau and community level.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Two projects are documented within this MEM Report: I. The first project examined what was learnt involving the critical infrastructure in the aftermath of natural disasters in the Canterbury region of New Zealand – the most prominent being the series of earthquakes between 2010 and 2011. The project identified several learning gaps, leading to recommendations for further investigations that could add significant value for the lifeline infrastructure community. II. Following the Lifeline Lesson Learnt Project, the Disaster Mitigation Guideline series was initiated with two booklets, one on Emergency Potable Water and a second on Emergency Sanitation. The key message from both projects is that we can and must learn from disasters. The projects described are part of the emergency management, and critical infrastructure learning cycles – presenting knowledge captured by others in a digestible format, enabling the lessons to be reapplied. Without these kinds of projects, there will be fewer opportunities to learn from other’s successes and failures when it comes to preparing for natural disasters.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Novel Gel-push sampling was employed to obtain high quality samples of Christchurch sands from the Central Business District, at sites where liquefaction was observed in 22 February 2011, and 13 June 2011 earthquakes. The results of cyclic triaxial testing on selected undisturbed specimens of typical Christchurch sands are presented and compared to empirical procedures used by practitioners. This comparison suggests cyclic triaxial data may be conservative, and the Magnitude Scaling Factor used in empirical procedures may be unconservative for highly compressible soils during near source moderate to low magnitude events. Comparison to empirical triggering curves suggests the empirical method generally estimates the cyclic strength of Christchurch sands within a reasonable degree of accuracy as a screening evaluation tool for liquefaction hazard, however for sands with moderate to high fines content it may be significantly unconservative, highlighting the need for high quality sampling and testing on important projects where seismic performance is critical.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This presentation discusses recent empirical ground motion modelling efforts in New Zealand. Firstly, the active shallow crustal and subduction interface and slab ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) which are employed in the 2010 update of the national seismic hazard model (NSHM) are discussed. Other NZ-specific GMPEs developed, but not incorporated in the 2010 update are then discussed, in particular, the active shallow crustal model of Bradley (2010). A brief comparison of the NZ-specific GMPEs with the near-source ground motions recorded in the Canterbury earthquakes is then presented, given that these recordings collectively provide a significant increase in observed strong motions in the NZ catalogue. The ground motion prediction expert elicitation process that was undertaken following the Canterbury earthquakes for active shallow crustal earthquakes is then discussed. Finally, ongoing GMPE-related activities are discussed including: ground motion and metadata database refinement, improved site characterization of strong motion station, and predictions for subduction zone earthquakes.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Canterbury earthquakes, which involved widespread damage in the February 2011 event and ongoing aftershocks near the Christchurch central business district (CBD), presented decision-makers with many recovery challenges. This paper identifies major government decisions, challenges, and lessons in the early recovery of Christchurch based on 23 key-informant interviews conducted 15 months after the February 2011 earthquake. It then focuses on one of the most important decisions – maintaining the cordon around the heavily damaged CBD – and investigates its impacts. The cordon displaced 50,000 central city jobs, raised questions about (and provided new opportunities for) the long-term viability of downtown, influenced the number and practice of building demolitions, and affected debris management; despite being associated with substantial losses, the cordon was commonly viewed as necessary, and provided some benefits in facilitating recovery. Management of the cordon poses important lessons for planning for catastrophic urban earthquakes around the world.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

A multi-disciplinary geo-structural-environmental engineering project funded by the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is being carried out at the University of Canterbury. The project aims at developing an eco-friendly seismic isolation foundation system which will improve the seismic performance of medium-density low-rise buildings. Such system is characterized by two main elements: 1) granulated scrap rubber mixed with gravelly soils to be placed beneath the structure, with the goal damping part of the seismic energy before it reaches the superstructure; and 2) a basement raft made of steel-fibre reinforced rubberised concrete (SFRRuC) to enhance the flexibility and toughness of the foundation, looking at better accommodating the displacement demand. In this paper, the main objectives, scope and methodology of the project will be briefly described. A literature review of the engineering properties of steel-fibre reinforced rubberised concrete (RuC) will be presented. Then, preliminary results on concrete mixes with different rubber and steel fibres content will be exhibited.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

There is a growing awareness of the need for the earthquake engineering practice to incorporate in addition to empirical approaches in evaluation of liquefaction hazards advanced methods which can more realistically represent soil behaviour during earthquakes. Currently, this implementation is hindered by a number of challenges mainly associated with the amount of data and user-experience required for such advanced methods. In this study, we present key steps of an advanced seismic effective-stress analysis procedure, which on the one hand can be fully automated and, on the other hand, requires no additional input (at least for preliminary applications) compared to simplified cone penetration test (CPT)-based liquefaction procedures. In this way, effective-stress analysis can be routinely applied for quick, yet more robust estimations of liquefaction hazards, in a similar fashion to the simplified procedures. Important insights regarding the dynamic interactions in liquefying soils and the actual system response of a deposit can be gained from such analyses, as illustrated with the application to two sites from Christchurch, New Zealand.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence, and the resulting extensive data sets on damaged buildings that have been collected, provide a unique opportunity to exercise and evaluate previously published seismic performance assessment procedures. This poster provides an overview of the authors’ methodology to perform evaluations with two such assessment procedures, namely the P-58 guidelines and the REDi Rating System. P-58, produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the United States, aims to facilitate risk assessment and decision-making by quantifying earthquake ground shaking, structural demands, component damage and resulting consequences in a logical framework. The REDi framework, developed by the engineering firm ARUP, aids stakeholders in implementing resilience-based earthquake design. Preliminary results from the evaluations are presented. These have the potential to provide insights on the ability of the assessment procedures to predict impacts using “real-world” data. However, further work remains to critically analyse these results and to broaden the scope of buildings studied and of impacts predicted.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

A major lesson from the 2011 Christchurch earthquake was the apparent lack of ductility of some lightly reinforced concrete (RC) wall structures. In particular, the structural behaviour of the critical wall in the Gallery Apartments building demonstrated that the inelastic deformation capacity of a structure, as well as potentially brittle failure of the reinforcement, is dependent on the level of bond deterioration between reinforcement and surrounding concrete that occurs under seismic loading. This paper presents the findings of an experimental study on bond behaviour between deformed reinforcing bars and the surrounding concrete. Bond strength and relative bond slip was evaluated using 75 pull-out tests under monotonic and cyclic loading. Variations of the experiments include the loading rate, loading history, concrete strength (25 to 70 MPa), concrete age, cover thickness, bar diameter (16 and 20 mm), embedded length, and the position of the embedded bond region within the specimen (deep within or close to free surface). Select test results are presented with inferred implications for RC structures.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of a presentation by Dr Sarah Beaven during the Social Recovery Stream of the 2016 People in Disasters Conference. The presentation is titled, "Leading and Coordinating Social Recovery: Lessons from a central recovery agency".The abstract for this presentation reads as follows: This presentation provides an overview of the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority's Social Recovery Lessons and Legacy project. This project was commissioned in 2014 and completed in December 2015. It had three main aims: to capture Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority's role in social recovery after the Canterbury earthquakes, to identify lessons learned, and to disseminate these lessons to future recovery practitioners. The project scope spanned four Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority work programmes: The Residential Red Zone, the Social and Cultural Outcomes, the Housing Programme, and the Community Resilience Programme. Participants included both Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority employees, people from within a range of regional and national agencies, and community and public sector organisations who worked with Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority over time. The presentation will outline the origin and design of the project, and present some key findings.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of a presentation by Jane Morgan and Annabel Begg during the Social Recovery Stream of the 2016 People in Disasters Conference. The presentation is titled, "Monitoring Social Recovery in Greater Christchurch".The abstract for this presentation reads as follows: This presentation provides an overview of the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority's Social Recovery Lessons and Legacy project. This project was commissioned in 2014 and completed in December 2015. It had three main aims: to capture Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority's role in social recovery after the Canterbury earthquakes, to identify lessons learned, and to disseminate these lessons to future recovery practitioners. The project scope spanned four Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority work programmes: The Residential Red Zone, the Social and Cultural Outcomes, the Housing Programme, and the Community Resilience Programme. Participants included both Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority employees, people from within a range of regional and national agencies, and community and public sector organisations who worked with Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority over time. The presentation will outline the origin and design of the project, and present some key findings.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

This article argues that teachers deserve more recognition for their roles as first responders in the immediate aftermath of a disaster and for the significant role they play in supporting students and their families through post-disaster recovery. The data are drawn from a larger study, 'Christchurch Schools Tell Their Earthquake Stories' funded by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation and the University of Auckland, in which schools were invited to record their earthquake stories for themselves and for historical archives. Data were gathered from five primary schools between 2012 and 2014. Methods concerned mainly semi-structured individual or group interviews and which were analysed thematically. The approach was sensitive, flexible and participatory with each school being able to choose its focus, participants and outcome. Participants from each school generally included the principal and a selection of teachers, students and parents. In this study, the data relating to the roles of teachers were separated out for closer analysis. The findings are presented as four themes: immediate response; returning to (new) normal; care and support; and long term effects.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Churches are an important part of New Zealand's historical and architectural heritage. Various earthquakes around the world have highlighted the significant seismic vulnerability of religious buildings, with the extensive damage that occurred to stone and clay-brick unreinforced masonry churches after the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes emphasising the necessity to better understand this structural type. Consequently, a country-wide inventory of unreinforced masonry churches is here identified. After a bibliographic and archival investigation, and a 10 000 km field trip, it is estimated that currently 297 unreinforced masonry churches are present throughout New Zealand, excluding 12 churches demolished in Christchurch because of heavy damage sustained during the Canterbury earthquake sequence. The compiled database includes general information about the buildings, their architectural features and structural characteristics, and any architectural and structural transformations that have occurred in the past. Statistics about the occurrence of each feature are provided and preliminary interpretations of their role on seismic vulnerability are discussed. The list of identified churches is reported in annexes, supporting their identification and providing their address.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

The sequence of earthquakes that has greatly affected Christchurch and Canterbury since September 2010 has again demonstrated the need for seismic retrofit of heritage unreinforced masonry buildings. Commencing in April 2011, the damage to unreinforced stone masonry buildings in Christchurch was assessed and recorded with the primary objective being to document the seismic performance of these structures, recognising that they constitute an important component of New Zealand’s heritage architecture. A damage statistics database was compiled by combining the results of safety evaluation placarding and post-earthquake inspections, and it was determined that the damage observed was consistent with observations previously made on the seismic performance of stone masonry structures in large earthquakes. Details are also given on typical building characteristics and on failure modes observed. Suggestions on appropriate seismic retrofit and remediation techniques are presented, in relation also to strengthening interventions that are typical for similar unreinforced stone masonry structures in Europe.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Between September 4, 2010 and December 23, 2011, a series of earthquakes struck the South Island of New Zealand including the city of Christchurch producing heavy damage. During the strongest shaking, the unreinforced masonry (URM) building stock in Christchurch was subjected to seismic loading equal to approximately 150-200% of code values. Post-earthquake reconnaissance suggested numerous failures of adhesive anchors used for retrofit connection of roof and floor diaphragms to masonry walls. A team of researchers from the Universities of Auckland (NZ) and Minnesota (USA) conducted a field investigation on the performance of new adhesive anchors installed in existing masonry walls. Variables included adhesive type, anchor diameter, embedment length, anchor inclination, and masonry quality. Buildings were selected that had been slated for demolition but which featured exterior walls that had not been damaged. A summary of the deformation response measured during the field tests are presented. AM - Accepted Manuscript

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Finance Minister Bill English holds a large axe that represents the 'budget' and says 'I wanted to retrieve all my spending tools, but, sadly, with allotted time short, I could only grab this!..' He is standing outside the barrier that surrounds the Christchurch CBD. Context - The Christchurch central business district has been largely out of bounds to anyone but those dealing with the after-effects of the earthquake of February 22 but business owners have been allowed restricted access to retrieve gear and belongings. The 2011 budget looks as though it will be focused on paring everything down because of the sad state of New Zealand's economy at present (made worse by the need to rebuild Christchurch), hence the axe. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Following a damaging earthquake, the immediate emergency response is focused on individual collapsed buildings or other "hotspots" rather than the overall state of damage. This lack of attention to the global damage condition of the affected region can lead to the reporting of misinformation and generate confusion, causing difficulties when attempting to determine the level of postdisaster resources required. A pre-planned building damage survey based on the transect method is recommended as a simple tool to generate an estimate of the overall level of building damage in a city or region. A methodology for such a transect survey is suggested, and an example of a similar survey conducted in Christchurch, New Zealand, following the 22 February 2011 earthquake is presented. The transect was found to give suitably accurate estimates of building damage at a time when information was keenly sought by government authorities and the general public. VoR - Version of Record

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The earthquake swarm that has struck Canterbury, New Zealand from September 2010 has led to widespread destruction and loss of life in the city of Christchurch. In response to this the New Zealand government convened a Royal Commission under the Commissions of Inquiry Act 1908. The terms of reference for this enquiry were wide ranging, and included inquiry into legal and best-practice requirements for earthquake-prone buildings and associated risk management strategies. The Commission produced a final report on earthquake-prone buildings and recommendations which was made public on the 7th December 2012. Also on the 7th of December 2012 the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) released a Consultation Document that includes many of the recommendations put forward by the Royal Commission. This paper examines the evidence presented to the Royal Commission and reviews their recommendations and those of MBIE in relation to the management of earthquake-prone buildings. An analysis of the likely impacts of the recommendations and proposals on both the property market and society in general is also undertaken.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Following the September 2010 earthquake and the closure of a number of campus libraries, library staff at the University of Canterbury was forced to rethink how they connected with their users. The established virtual reference service now meant library staff could be contacted regardless of their physical location. After the February earthquake, with University library closures ranging from 3 weeks to indefinite, this service came into its own as a vital communication tool. It facilitated contact between the library and both students and academics, as well as proving invaluable as a means for library staff to locate and communicate with each other. Transcripts from our post-earthquake interactions with users were analyzed using NVivo and will be presented in poster format showing the increase in usage of the service following the earthquakes, who used the service most, and the numbers and types of questions received. Our virtual reference tool was well used in the difficult post-earthquake periods and we can see this usage continuing as university life returns to normal.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

New Zealand's devastating Canterbury earthquakes provided an opportunity to examine the efficacy of existing regulations and policies relevant to seismic strengthening of vulnerable buildings. The mixed-methods approach adopted, comprising both qualitative and quantitative approaches, revealed that some of the provisions in these regulations pose as constraints to appropriate strengthening of earthquake-prone buildings. Those provisions include the current seismic design philosophy, lack of mandatory disclosure of seismic risks and ineffective timeframes for strengthening vulnerable buildings. Recommendations arising from these research findings and implications for pre-disaster mitigation for future earthquake and Canterbury's post-disaster reconstruction suggest: (1) a reappraisal of the requirements for earthquake engineering design and construction, (2) a review and realignment of all regulatory frameworks relevant to earthquake risk mitigation, and (3) the need to develop a national programme necessary to achieve consistent mitigation efforts across the country. These recommendations are important in order to present a robust framework where New Zealand communities such as Christchurch can gradually recover after a major earthquake disaster, while planning for pre-disaster mitigation against future earthquakes. AM - Accepted Manuscript

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

As part of the 'Project Masonry' Recovery Project funded by the New Zealand Natural Hazards Research Platform, commencing in March 2011, an international team of researchers was deployed to document and interpret the observed earthquake damage to masonry buildings and to churches as a result of the 22nd February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. The study focused on investigating commonly encountered failure patterns and collapse mechanisms. A brief summary of activities undertaken is presented, detailing the observations that were made on the performance of and the deficiencies that contributed to the damage to approximately 650 inspected unreinforced clay brick masonry (URM) buildings, to 90 unreinforced stone masonry buildings, to 342 reinforced concrete masonry (RCM) buildings, to 112 churches in the Canterbury region, and to just under 1100 residential dwellings having external masonry veneer cladding. In addition, details are provided of retrofit techniques that were implemented within relevant Christchurch URM buildings prior to the 22nd February earthquake and brief suggestions are provided regarding appropriate seismic retrofit and remediation techniques for stone masonry buildings. http://www.nzsee.org.nz/publications/nzsee-quarterly-bulletin/

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

On 14 November 2016 a magnitude Mw 7.8 earthquake struck the upper South Island of New Zealand with effects also being observed in the capital city, Wellington. The affected area has low population density but is the largest wine production region in New Zealand and also hosts the main national highway and railway routes connecting the country’s three largest cities of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch, with Marlborough Port in Picton providing connection between the South and North Islands. These transport facilities sustained substantial earthquake related damage, causing major disruptions. Thousands of landslides and multiple new faults were counted in the area. The winery facilities and a large number of commercial buildings and building components (including brick masonry veneers, historic masonry construction, and chimneys), sustained damage due to the strong vertical and horizontal acceleration. Presented herein are field observations undertaken the day immediately after the earthquake, with the aim to document earthquake damage and assess access to the affected area.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The disastrous earthquakes that struck Christchurch in 2010 and 2011 seriously impacted on the individual and collective lives of Māori residents. This paper continues earlier, predominantly qualitative research on the immediate effects on Māori by presenting an analysis of a survey carried out 18 months after the most destructive event, on 22 February 2011. Using a set-theoretic approach, pathways to Māori resilience are identified, emphasising the combination of whānau connectivity and high incomes in those who have maintained or increased their wellbeing post-disaster. However, the results show that if resilience is used to describe a “bounce back” in wellbeing, Māori are primarily enduring the post-disaster environment. This endurance phase is a precursor to any resilience and will be of much longer duration than first thought. With continued uncertainty in the city and wider New Zealand economy, this endurance may not necessarily lead to a more secure environment for Māori in the city.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Disasters are a critical topic for practitioners of landscape architecture. A fundamental role of the profession is disaster prevention or mitigation through practitioners having a thorough understanding of known threats. Once we reach the ‘other side’ of a disaster – the aftermath – landscape architecture plays a central response in dealing with its consequences, rebuilding of settlements and infrastructure and gaining an enhanced understanding of the causes of any failures. Landscape architecture must respond not only to the physical dimensions of disaster landscapes but also to the social, psychological and spiritual aspects. Landscape’s experiential potency is heightened in disasters in ways that may challenge and extend the spectrum of emotions. Identity is rooted in landscape, and massive transformation through the impact of a disaster can lead to ongoing psychological devastation. Memory and landscape are tightly intertwined as part of individual and collective identities, as connections to place and time. The ruptures caused by disasters present a challenge to remembering the lives lost and the prior condition of the landscape, the intimate attachments to places now gone and even the event itself.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes were recorded over a dense strong motion network in the near-source region, yielding significant observational evidence of seismic complexities, and a basis for interpretation of multi-disciplinary datasets and induced damage to the natural and built environment. This paper provides an overview of observed strong motions from these events and retrospective comparisons with both empirical and physics-based ground motion models. Both empirical and physics-based methods provide good predictions of observations at short vibration periods in an average sense. However, observed ground motion amplitudes at specific locations, such as Heathcote Valley, are seen to systematically depart from ‘average’ empirical predictions as a result of near surface stratigraphic and topographic features which are well modelled via sitespecific response analyses. Significant insight into the long period bias in empirical predictions is obtained from the use of hybrid broadband ground motion simulation. The comparison of both empirical and physics-based simulations against a set of 10 events in the sequence clearly illustrates the potential for simulations to improve ground motion and site response prediction, both at present, and further in the future.