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Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This study provides an initial examination of source parameter uncertainty in a New Zealand ground motion simulation model, by simulating multiple event realisations with perturbed source parameters. Small magnitude events in Canterbury have been selected for this study due to the small number of source input parameters, the wealth of recorded data, and the lack of appreciable off-fault non-linear effects. Which provides greater opportunity to identify systematic source, path and site effects, required to robustly investigate the causes of uncertainty.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Recycling is often employed as part of a disaster waste management system. However, the feasibility, method and effectiveness of recycling varies between disaster events. This qualitative study is based on literature reviews, expert interviews and active participatory research of five international disaster events in developed countries (2009 Victorian Bushfires, Australia; 2009 L’Aquila earthquake, Italy; 2005 Hurricane Katrina, United States; 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes, New Zealand; 2011 Great East Japan earthquake) to answer three questions: What are the main factors that affect the feasibility of recycling post-disaster? When is on-site or off-site separation more effective? What management approaches improve recycling effectiveness? Seven disaster-specific factors need to be assessed to determine the feasibility of disaster waste recycling programmes: volume of waste; degree of mixing of waste; human and environmental health hazards; areal extent of the waste; community priorities; funding mechanisms; and existing and disaster-specific regulations. The appropriateness of on or off-site waste separation depends on four factors: time constraints; resource availability; degree of mixing of waste and human and public health hazards. Successful recycling programmes require good management including clear and well enforced policies (through good contracts or regulations) and pre-event planning. Further research into post-disaster recycling markets, funding mechanisms and recycling in developing countries is recommended.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Following the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes, approximately 60% of multi-story buildings with reinforced concrete walls required demolition. Both practitioners and researchers have increasingly realized that low-damage structural systems could be an alternative to improve the seismic behaviour of concrete buildings and to reduce the economic and social impact of structural damage in future earthquakes. To verify the seismic response of a low-damage concrete wall building representing state-of-art design practice, a shake table test on a two-story concrete building was recently conducted as part of an ILEE-QuakeCoRE collaborative research program. The building utilized flexible wall-to-floor connections in the long span direction and isolating wall-to-floor devices in the short span direction to provide a comparison of their respective behaviour. Additionally, the wall-to-floor interaction such as effects of wall uplift on the link slab, and force transfer mechanism from floor to the wall will be discussed in this paper.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Unreinforced masonry (URM) structures comprise a majority of the global built heritage. The masonry heritage of New Zealand is comparatively younger to its European counterparts. In a country facing frequent earthquakes, the URM buildings are prone to extensive damage and collapse. The Canterbury earthquake sequence proved the same, causing damage to over _% buildings. The ability to assess the severity of building damage is essential for emergency response and recovery. Following the Canterbury earthquakes, the damaged buildings were categorized into various damage states using the EMS-98 scale. This article investigates machine learning techniques such as k-nearest neighbors, decision trees, and random forests, to rapidly assess earthquake-induced building damage. The damage data from the Canterbury earthquake sequence is used to obtain the forecast model, and the performance of each machine learning technique is evaluated using the remaining (test) data. On getting a high accuracy the model is then run for building database collected for Dunedin to predict expected damage during the rupture of the Akatore fault.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Light timber framed (LTF) structures provide a cost-effective and structurally efficient solution for low-rise residential buildings. This paper studies seismic performance of single-storey LTF buildings sheathed by gypsum-plasterboards (GPBs) that are a typical lining product in New Zealand houses. Compared with wood-based structural panels, GPBs tend to be more susceptible to damage when they are used in bracing walls to resist earthquake loads. This study aims to provide insights on how the bracing wall irregularity allowed by the current New Zealand standard NZS 3604 and the in-plane rigidity of ceiling diaphragms affect the overall seismic performance of these GPB-braced LTF buildings. Nonlinear time-history analyses were conducted on a series of single-storey baseline buildings with different levels of bracing wall irregularities and ceiling diaphragm rigidity. The results showed significant torsional effect caused by the eccentric bracing wall layout with semi-rigid/rigid ceiling diaphragms. On average, bracing wall drift demand caused by the extreme bracing wall irregularities was three times of that in the regular bracing wall layout under the rigid diaphragm assumption. This finding agreed well with the house survey after the 2011 Canterbury Earthquake in which significantly more damage was observed in the houses with irregular bracing wall layouts and relatively rigid diaphragms. Therefore, it is recommended to limit the level of bracing wall eccentricity and ensure the sufficiently rigid diaphragms to avoid excessive damage in these LTF buildings in future events.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

There is an increasing recognition that the seismic performance of buildings will be affected by the behaviour of both structural and non-structural elements. In light of this, work has been progressing at the University of Canterbury to develop guidelines for the seismic assessment of commercial glazing systems. This paper reviews the seismic assessment guidelines prescribed in Section C10 of the MBIE building assessment guidelines. Subsequently, the C10 approach is used to assess the drift capacity of a number of glazing units recently tested at the University of Canterbury. Comparing the predicted and observed drift capacities, it would appear that the C10 guidelines may lead to nonconservative estimates of drift capacity. Furthermore, the experimental results indicate that watertightness may be lost at very low drift demands, suggesting that guidance for the assessment of serviceability performance would also be beneficial. As such, it is proposed that improved guidance be provided to assist engineers in considering the possible impact that glazing could have on the structural response of a building in a large earthquake.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Glazing systems are non-structural elements in a building that, more often than not, appear to be given little consideration in seismic design. Recent experimental work into glazing systems at the University of Canterbury, however, has shown that glazing systems can be very susceptible to serviceability damage, defined as loss of water-tightness. The focus of this paper is to highlight the difference in vulnerability of standard and seismic glazing systems and consider the implications of this for future repair costs and losses. The paper first describes the damage states chosen for glazing units according to the repair strategies required and expected repair costs. This includes three damage states: DS1: Water Leakage, DS2: Gasket Failure and DS3: Frame/Glass Failure. Implementing modern performance-based earthquake engineering, the paper proceeds to highlight a case study comparing costs and expected losses of a standard glazing unit and a seismic glazing unit installed on a case study building. It is shown that the use of seismic glazing units is generally beneficial over time, due to the early onset of serviceability damage in standard glazing units. Finally, the paper provides suggestions for designers aimed at reducing costs related to earthquake induced repairs of glazing.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This analysis employs both qualitative and quantitative approaches to identify how young adults in New Zealand aged 18-25 years old have engaged with All Right? campaign material. A survey targeting young adults returned 51 viable out of 117 responses due to participation prerequisites. From the survey, five participants elaborated on their thoughts in an in-depth interview voluntarily. Interviews were conducted with key personnel from All Right? to craft broader understanding of the initiative whilst enhancing knowledge of mental health frameworks and their application. Ciaran Fox, Lucy Daeth and Sara Epperson, who have been imperative to the success of the campaign, shared their working experience in the community and public health sector and how this intertwines to their current roles at All Right?. Discussions of key frameworks, community conversations, the development of communication strategies and how All Right? approached Canterbury publics in a post-earthquake setting provided insight to the importance of understanding community circumstance in initial crisis and the correlated secondary stressors.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Base isolation is an incredibly effective technology used in seismic regions throughout the world to limit structural damage and maintain building function, even after severe earthquakes. However, it has so far been underutilised in light-frame wood construction due to perceived cost issues and technical problems, such as a susceptibility to movement under strong wind loads. Light-frame wood buildings make up the majority of residential construction in New Zealand and sustained significant damage during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence, yet the design philosophy has remained largely unchanged for years due to proven life-safety performance. Recently however, with the advent of performance based earthquake engineering, there has been a renewed focus on performance factors such as monetary loss that has driven a want for higher performing residential buildings. This research develops a low-cost approach for the base isolation of light-frame wood buildings using a flat-sliding friction base isolation system, which addresses the perceived cost and technical issues, and verifies the seismic performance through physical testing on the shake table at the University of Canterbury. Results demonstrate excellent seismic performance with no structural damage reported despite a large number of high-intensity earthquake simulations. Numerical models are subsequently developed and calibrated to New Zealand light-frame wood building construction approaches using state-of-the-art wood modelling software, Timber3D. The model is used to accurately predict both superstructure drift and acceleration demand parameters of fixed-base testing undertaken after the base isolation testing programme is completed. The model development allows detailed cost analyses to be undertaken within the performance based earthquake engineering framework that highlights the monetary benefits of using base isolation. Cost assessments indicate the base isolation system is only 6.4% more compared to the traditional fixed-base system. Finally, a design procedure is recommended for base isolated light-frame wood buildings that is founded on the displacement based design (DBD) approach used in the United States and New Zealand. Nonlinear analyses are used to verify the DBD method which indicate its suitability.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Over 6.3 million waste tyres are produced annually in New Zealand (Tyrewise, 2021), leading to socioeconomic and environmental concerns. The 2010-11 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence inflicted extensive damage to ~6,000 residential buildings, highlighting the need to improve the seismic resilience of the residential housing sector. A cost-effective and sustainable eco-rubber geotechnical seismic isolation (ERGSI) foundation system for new low-rise buildings was developed by the authors. The ERGSI system integrates a horizontal geotechnical seismic isolation (GSI) layer i.e., a deformable seismic energy dissipative filter made of granulated tyre rubber (GTR) and gravel (G) – and a flexible rubberised concrete raft footing. Geotechnical experimental and numerical investigations demonstrated the effectiveness of the ERGSI system in reducing the seismic demand at the foundation level (i.e., reduced peak ground acceleration) (Hernandez et al., 2019; Tasalloti et al., 2021). However, it is essential to ensure that the ERGSI system has minimal leaching attributes and does not result in long-term negative impacts on the environment.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

A number of reverse and strike-slip faults are distributed throughout mid-Canterbury, South Island, New Zealand, due to oblique continental collision. There is limited knowledge on fault interaction in the region, despite historical multi-fault earthquakes involving both reverse and strike-slip faults. The surface expression and paleoseismicity of these faults can provide insights into fault interaction and seismic hazards in the region. In this thesis, I studied the Lake Heron and Torlesse faults to better understand the key differences between these two adjacent faults located within different ‘tectonic domains’. Recent activity and surface expression of the Lake Heron fault was mapped and analysed using drone survey, Structure-from-Motion (SfM) derived Digital Surface Model (DSM), aerial image, 5 m-Digital Elevation Model (DEM), luminescence dating technique, and fold modelling. The results show a direct relationship between deformation zone width and the thickness of the gravel deposits in the area. Fold modelling using fault dip, net slip and gravel thickness produces a deformation zone comparable to the field, indicating that the fault geometry is sound and corroborating the results. This result Is consistent with global studies that demonstrate deposit (or soil thickness) correlates to fault deformation zone width, and therefore is important to consider for fault displacement hazard. A geomorphological study on the Torlesse fault was conducted using SfM-DSM, DEM and aerial images Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) survey, trenching, and radiocarbon and luminescence dating. The results indicate that the Torlesse fault is primarily strike-slip with some dip slip component. In many places, the bedding-parallel Torlesse fault offsets post-glacial deposits, with some evidence of flexural slip faulting due to folding. Absolute dating of offset terraces using radiocarbon dating and slip on fault determined from lateral displacement calculating tool demonstrates the fault has a slip rate of around 0.5 mm/year to 1.0 mm/year. The likelihood of multi-fault rupture in the Torlesse Range has been characterised using paleoseismic trenching, a new structural model, and evaluation of existing paleoseismic data on the Porters Pass fault. Identification of overlapping of paleoseismic events in main Torlesse fault, flexural-slip faults and the Porters Pass fault in the Torlesse Range shows the possibility of distinct or multi-fault rupture on the Torlesse fault. The structural connectivity of the faults in the Torlesse zone forming a ‘flower structure’ supports the potential of multi-fault rupture. Multi-fault rupture modelling carried out in the area shows a high probability of rupture in the Porters Pass fault and Esk fault which also supports the co-rupture probability of faults in the region. This study offers a new understanding of the chronology, slip distribution, rupture characteristics and possible structural and kinematic relationship of Lake Heron fault and Torlesse fault in the South Island, New Zealand.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Researchers have begun to explore the opportunity presented by blue-green infrastructure(a subset of nature-based solutions that provide blue and green space in urban infrastructure)as a response to the pressures of climate change. The 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence created a unique landscape within which there is opportunity to experiment with and invest in new solutions to climate change adaptation in urban centres. Constructed wetlands are an example of blue-green infrastructure that can potentially support resilience in urban communities. This research explores interactions between communities and constructed wetlands to understand how this may influence perceptions of community resilience. The regeneration of the Ōtākaro Avon River Corridor (OARC) provides a space to investigate these relationships. Seven stakeholders from the community, industry, and academia, each with experience in blue-green infrastructure in the OARC, participated in a series of semi-structured interviews. Each participant was given the opportunity to reflect on their perspectives of community, community resilience, and constructed wetlands and their interconnections. Interview questions aligned with the overarching research objectives to (1) understand perceptions around the role of wetlands in urban communities, (2) develop a definition for community resilience in the context of the Ōtākaro Avon community, and (3) reflect on how wetlands can contribute to (or detract from) community resilience. This study found that constructed wetlands can facilitate learning about the challenges and solutions needed to adapt to climate change. From the perspective of the community representatives, community resilience is linked to social capital. Strong social networks and a relationship with nature were emphasised as core components of a community’s ability to adapt to disruption. Constructed wetlands are therefore recognised as potentially contributing to community resilience by providing spaces for people to engage with each other and nature. Investment in constructed wetlands can support a wider response to climate change impacts. This research was undertaken with the support of the Ōtākaro Living Laboratory Trust, who are invested in the future of the OARC. The outcomes of this study suggest that there is an opportunity to use wetland spaces to establish programmes that explore the perceptions of constructed wetlands from a broader community definition, at each stage of the wetland life cycle, and at wider scales(e.g., at a city scale or beyond).

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Liquefaction is a phenomenon that results in a loss of strength and stability of a saturated soil mass due to dynamic excitation such as that imposed by an earthquake. The granular nature of New Zealand soils and the location of many of our cities and towns on fluvial foundations are such that the effects of liquefaction can be very important. Research was undertaken to build on the past work undertaken at the University of Canterbury studying the effects of the 1929 Murchison earthquake, the 1968 Inangahua earthquake and the 1991 Hawks Crag earthquakes on the West Coast. Additional archival information has been gathered from newspapers and reports and from discussions with people who experienced one or all of these large earthquakes that occurred on the West Coast during the 20th Century. Further, some twenty Cone Penetrometer Tests were carried out, with varying success, in Greymouth and Karamea using the Department of Civil Engineering's Drilling Rig. These, combined with the basic site investigation information, consolidate and add to the liquefaction case history data bank at the University of Canterbury. Many of the sites have liquefied in some but not all of the three earthquakes and thus provide both upper and lower bounds for the calibration of empirical models. While a lack of knowledge of the 1929 source location reduces the value of information from that event, the data form a useful set of liquefaction case histories and will become more so as further earthquakes occur. A list of critical sites for checking of the future earthquakes is provided and recommendations are made for the installation of downhole arrays of accelerometers and pore water pressure transducers at a number of sites.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Landslides are significant hazards, especially in seismically-active mountainous regions, where shaking amplified by steep topography can result in widespread landsliding. These landslides present not only an acute hazard, but a chronic hazard that can last years-to-decades after the initial earthquake, causing recurring impacts. The Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake caused more than 20,000 landslides throughout North Canterbury and resulted in significant damage to nationally significant infrastructure in the coastal transport corridor (CTC), isolating Kaikōura from the rest of New Zealand. In the years following, ongoing landsliding triggered by intense rainfall exacerbated the impacts and slowed the recovery process. However, while there is significant research on co-seismic landslides and their initial impacts in New Zealand, little research has explored the evolution of co-seismic landslides and how this hazard changes over time. This research maps landslides annually between 2013 and 2021 to evaluate the changes in pre-earthquake, co-seismic and post-earthquake rates of landsliding to determine how landslide hazard has changed over this time. In particular, the research explores how the number, area, and spatial distribution of landslides has changed since the earthquake, and whether post-earthquake mitigation works have in any way affected the long-term landslide hazard. Mapping of landslides was undertaken using open-source, medium resolution Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, with landslides identified visually and mapped as single polygons that capture both the source zone and deposit. Three study areas with differing levels of post-earthquake mitigation are compared: (i) the northern CTC, where the majority of mitigation was in the form of active debris removal; (ii) the southern CTC, where mitigation was primarily via passive protection measures; and (iii) Mount Fyffe, which has had no mitigation works since the earthquake. The results show that despite similar initial impacts during the earthquake, the rate of recovery in terms of landslide rates varies substantially across the three study areas. In Mount Fyffe, the number and area of landslides could take 45 and 22 years from 2021 respectively to return to pre-earthquake levels at the current rate. Comparatively, in the CTC, it could take just 5 years and 3-4 years from 2021 respectively. Notably, the fastest recovery in terms of landslide rates in the CTC was primarily located directly along the transport network, whereas what little recovery did occur in Mount Fyffe appeared to follow no particular pattern. Importantly, recovery rates in the northern CTC were notably higher than in the southern CTC, despite greater co-seismic impacts in the former. Combined, these results suggest the active, debris removal mitigation undertaken in the northern CTC may have had the effect of dramatically reducing the time for landslide rates to return to pre-earthquake levels. The role of slope angle and slope aspect were explored to evaluate if these observations could be driven by local differences in topography. The Mount Fyffe study area has higher slope angles than the CTC as a whole and landslides predominantly occurred on slightly steeper slopes than in the CTC. This may have contributed to the longer recovery times for landsliding in Mount Fyffe due to greater gravitational instability, however the observed variations are minor compared to the differences in recovery rates. In terms of slope aspect, landslides in Mount Fyffe preferentially occurred on north- and south-facing slopes whereas landslides in the CTC preferred the east- and south-facing slopes. The potential role of these differences in landslide recovery remains unclear but may be related to the propagation direction of the earthquake and the tracking direction of post-earthquake ex-tropical cyclones. Finally, landslides in the CTC are observed to be moving further away from the transport network and the number of landslides impacting the CTC decreased significantly since the earthquake. Nevertheless, the potential for further landslide reactivation remains. Therefore, despite the recovery in the CTC, it is clear that there is still risk of the transport network being impacted by further landsliding, at least for the next 3-5 yrs.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

People aged 65 years and older are the fastest growing age group in New Zealand. By the mid-2070s, there are predictions that this age group is likely to comprise approximately one third of the population. Older people are encouraged to stay in their own homes within their community for as long as possible with support to encourage the extension of ageing in place. Currently around 14% of those aged 75 years or older, make the move into retirement villages. This is expected to increase. Little is known by retirement villages about the wellbeing and health of those who decide to live independently in these facilities. Predicting the need for a continuum of care is challenging. This research measured the wellbeing and health of older adults. It was situated in a critical realist paradigm, overlaid with an empathetic axiology. A focused literature review considered the impact on wellbeing from the aspects of living place, age, gender, health status and the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Longitudinal studies used the Enlightenment Scale and the interRAI Community Health Assessment (CHA) to measure the wellbeing and health of one group of residents (n=120) living independently in one retirement village in Canterbury, New Zealand. The research was extended to incorporate two cross-section studies when initial results for wellbeing were found to be higher than anticipated. These additional studies included participants living independently from other retirement villages (n=115) and those living independently within the community (n=354). A total of 589 participants, aged 65 – 97 years old, completed the Enlightenment Scale across the four studies. Across the living places, wellbeing continued to significantly improve with age. The Enlightenment Scale was a useful measure of wellbeing with older adults. Participants in the longitudinal studies largely maintained a relatively good health status, showing little change over the study period of 15 months. Predictions for the need for a move to supportive care were not able to be made using the CHA. The health status of participants did not influence their level of wellbeing. The key finding of note is that the wellbeing score of older adults increases by 1.27 points per year, using the Enlightenment Scale, irrespective of where they live.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

In this article we utilize grounded theory to explore women’s experiences in the unique construction industry context that followed the 2010 Canterbury (New Zealand) earthquakes. Data were obtained from 36 semi-structured interviews conducted with women working in a variety of occupations in the construction industry. We identify three inter-related categories: capitalizing on opportunity, demonstrating capability and surface tolerance, which together represent a response process that we label ‘deferential tailoring’. The deferential tailoring process explains how women intentionally shape their response to industry conditions through self-regulating behaviors that enables them to successfully seize opportunities and manage gender-related challenges in the working environment. Our findings challenge existing research which suggests that women adopt submissive coping strategies to conform to androcentric norms in the construction industry. Instead, we argue that the process of deferential tailoring can empower women to build positive workplace relationships, enhance career development, and help shift perceptions of the value of their work in the industry.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

In 2016, the Building (Earthquake-prone Buildings) Amendment Act 2016 was introduced to address the issue of seismic vulnerability amongst existing buildings in Aotearoa New Zealand. This Act introduced a mandatory scheme to remediate buildings deemed particularly vulnerable to seismic hazard, as recommended by the 2012 Royal Commission into the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010–2011. This Earthquake-prone Building (EPB) framework is unusual internationally for the mandatory obligations that it introduces. This article explores and critiques the operation of the scheme in practice through an examination of its implementation provisions and the experiences of more recent seismic events (confirmed by engineering research). This analysis leads to the conclusion that the operation of the current scheme and particularly the application of the concept of EPB vulnerability excludes large numbers of (primarily urban) buildings which pose a significant risk in the event of a significant (but expected) seismic event. As a result, the EPB scheme fails to achieve its goals and instead may create a false impression that it does so

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Recent surface-rupturing earthquakes in New Zealand have highlighted significant exposure and vulnerability of the road network to fault displacement. Understanding fault displacement hazard and its impact on roads is crucial for mitigating risks and enhancing resilience. There is a need for regional-scale assessments of fault displacement to identify vulnerable areas within the road network for the purposes of planning and prioritising site-specific investigations. This thesis employs updated analysis of data from three historical surface-rupturing earthquakes (Edgecumbe 1987, Darfield 2010, and Kaikoūra 2016) to develop an empirical model that addresses the gap in regional fault displacement hazard analysis. The findings contribute to understanding of • How to use seismic hazard model inputs for regional fault displacement hazard analysis • How faulting type and sediment cover affects the magnitude and spatial distribution of fault displacement • How the distribution of displacement and regional fault displacement hazard is impacted by secondary faulting • The inherent uncertainties and limitations associated with employing an empirical approach at a regional scale • Which sections of New Zealand’s roading network are most susceptible to fault displacement hazard and warrant site-specific investigations • Which regions should prioritise updating emergency management plans to account for post-event disruptions to roading. I used displacement data from the aforementioned historical ruptures to generate displacement versus distance-to-fault curves for various displacement components, fault types, and geological characteristics. Using those relationships and established relationships for along-strike displacement, displacement contours were generated surrounding active faults within the NZ Community Fault Model. Next, I calculated a new measure of 1D strain along roads as well as relative hazard, which integrated 1D strain and normalised slip rate data. Summing these values at the regional level identified areas of heightened relative hazard across New Zealand, and permits an assessment of the susceptibility of road networks using geomorphon land classes as proxies for vulnerability. The results reveal that fault-parallel displacements tend to localise near the fault plane, while vertical and fault-perpendicular displacements sustain over extended distances. Notably, no significant disparities were observed in off-fault displacement between the hanging wall and footwall sides of the fault, or among different surface geology types, potentially attributed to dataset biases. The presence of secondary faulting in the dataset contributes to increased levels of tectonic displacement farther from the fault, highlighting its significance in hazard assessments. Furthermore, fault displacement contours delineate broader zones around dip-slip faults compared to strike-slip faults, with correlations identified between fault length and displacement width. Road ‘strain’ values are higher around dip-slip faults, with notable examples observed in the Westland and Buller Districts. As expected, relative hazard analysis revealed elevated values along faults with high slip rates, notably along the Alpine Fault. A regional-scale analysis of hazard and exposure reveals heightened relative hazard in specific regions, including Wellington, Southern Hawke’s Bay, Central Bay of Plenty, Central West Coast, inland Canterbury, and the Wairau Valley of Marlborough. Notably, the Central West Coast exhibits the highest summed relative hazard value, attributed to the fast-slipping Alpine Fault. The South Island generally experiences greater relative hazard due to larger and faster-slipping faults compared to the North Island, despite having fewer roads. Central regions of New Zealand face heightened risk compared to Southern or Northern regions. Critical road links intersecting high-slipping faults, such as State Highways 6, 73, 1, and 2, necessitate prioritisation for site-specific assessments, emergency management planning and targeted mitigation strategies. Roads intersecting with the Alpine Fault are prone to large parallel displacements, requiring post-quake repair efforts. Mitigation strategies include future road avoidance of nearby faults, modification of road fill and surface material, and acknowledgement of inherent risk, leading to prioritised repair efforts of critical roads post-quake. Implementing these strategies enhances emergency response efforts by improving accessibility to isolated regions following a major surface-rupturing event, facilitating faster supply delivery and evacuation assistance. This thesis contributes to the advancement of understanding fault displacement hazard by introducing a novel regional, empirical approach. The methods and findings highlight the importance of further developing such analyses and extending them to other critical infrastructure types exposed to fault displacement hazard in New Zealand. Enhancing our comprehension of the risks associated with fault displacement hazard offers valuable insights into various mitigation strategies for roading infrastructure and informs emergency response planning, thereby enhancing both national and global infrastructure resilience against geological hazards.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Describes an extensive experimental program at the University of Canterbury, for the development of new structural systems and connections for multi-storey laminated veneer lumber (LVL) timber buildings in earthquake-prone areas. The proposed innovative ductile timber connections are conceptually similar to recent seismic solutions successfully developed for precast concrete multi- storey buildings. The paper gives an overview of the research program, and the results of quasi-static cyclic tests on frame subassemblies, including exterior beam-column joints and cantilever columns, as well as pseudo-dynamic tests on cantilever columns. The experimental results showed significant dissipation of hysteretic energy, good self-centering capacity and no appreciable damage of the structural elements, confirming the expected enhanced performance of the proposed structural systems.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This paper describes part of an extensive experimental programme in progress at the University of Canterbury to develop Laminated Veneer Lumber (LVL) structural systems and connections for multistorey timber buildings in earthquake-prone areas. The higher mechanical properties of LVL, when compared to sawn timber, in addition to its low mass, flexibility of design and rapidity of construction, create the potential for increased use of LVL in multi-storey buildings. The development of these innovative ductile connections in LVL, proposed here for frame systems, have been based on the successful implementation of jointed ductile connections for precast concrete systems, started in the early 1990s with the PRESSS Program at the University of California, San Diego, further developed in Italy and currently under further refinement at the University of Canterbury. This paper investigates the seismic behaviour of the so-called “hybrid” connection, characterised by the combination of unbonded post-tensioned tendons and either external or internal energy dissipaters passing through the critical contact surface between the structural elements. Experimental results on hybrid exterior beam-to-column and column-to-foundation subassemblies under cyclic quasi-static unidirectional loading are presented. The proposed innovative solutions exhibit a very satisfactory seismic performance characterised by an appreciable energy dissipation capacity (provided by the dissipaters) combined with self-centring properties (provided by the unbonded tendons) and negligible damage of the LVL structural elements.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Recent major earthquakes such as Northridge 1994 and Izmit Kocaeli 1999 highlighted the poor performance of existing buildings constructed prior to the early 1970’s. Low lateral seismic design coefficients and the adopted “working stress design” methodology (essentially an elastic design) lacked any inelastic design considerations, thus leading to inadequate detailing. Insufficient development lengths, lapping within potential plastic hinge regions, lack, or total absence of joint transverse reinforcement, and the use of plain round reinforcement and hooked end anchorages were common throughout the structure. The behaviour is generally dominated by brittle local failure mechanisms (e.g. joint or element shear failures) as well as possible soft-storey mechanisms at a global level. Amongst several possible retrofit interventions, a typical solution is to provide the structure with additional structural walls i.e. external buttressing or column in-fills. Extensive developments on precast, post-tensioned, dissipative systems have shown promise for the use of rocking wall systems to retrofit existing poorly detailed frame structures. In this contribution, the feasibility of such a retrofit intervention is investigated. A displacement-based retrofit procedure is developed and proposed, based on targeting pre-defined performance criteria, such as joint shear and/or column curvature deformation limits. A design example, using the proposed retrofit strategy on a prototype frame is presented. A brief overview on experimental work ongoing at the University of Canterbury investigating the dynamic response of advanced rocking walls for retrofit purposes will be provided.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Reinforced concrete structures designed in pre-1970s are vulnerable under earthquakes due to lack of seismic detailing to provide adequate ductility. Typical deficiencies of pre-1970s reinforced concrete structures are (a) use of plain bars as longitudinal reinforcement, (b) inadequate anchorage of beam longitudinal reinforcement in the column (particularly exterior column), (c) lack of joint transverse reinforcement if any, (d) lapped splices located just above joint, and (e) low concrete strength. Furthermore, the use of infill walls is a controversial issue because it can help to provide additional stiffness to the structure on the positive side and on the negative side it can increase the possibility of soft-storey mechanisms if it is distributed irregularly. Experimental research to investigate the possible seismic behaviour of pre-1970s reinforced concrete structures have been carried out in the past. However, there is still an absence of experimental tests on the 3-D response of existing beam-column joints under bi-directional cyclic loading, such as corner joints. As part of the research work herein presented, a series of experimental tests on beam-column subassemblies with typical detailing of pre-1970s buildings has been carried out to investigate the behaviour of existing reinforced concrete structures. Six two-third scale plane frame exterior beam-column joint subassemblies were constructed and tested under quasi-static cyclic loading in the Structural Laboratory of the University of Canterbury. The reinforcement detailing and beam dimension were varied to investigate their effect on the seismic behaviour. Four specimens were conventional deep beam-column joint, with two of them using deformed longitudinal bars and beam bars bent in to the joint and the two others using plain round longitudinal bars and beam bars with end hooks. The other two specimens were shallow beam-column joint, one with deformed longitudinal bars and beam bars bent in to the joint, the other with plain round longitudinal bars and beam bars with end hooks. All units had one transverse reinforcement in the joint. The results of the experimental tests indicated that conventional exterior beam-column joint with typical detailing of pre-1970s building would experience serious diagonal tension cracking in the joint panel under earthquake. The use of plain round bars with end hooks for beam longitudinal reinforcement results in more severe damage in the joint core when compared to the use of deformed bars for beam longitudinal reinforcement bent in to the joint, due to the combination of bar slips and concrete crushing. One interesting outcome is that the use of shallow beam in the exterior beam-column joint could avoid the joint cracking due to the beam size although the strength provided lower when compared with the use of deep beam with equal moment capacity. Therefore, taking into account the low strength and stiffness, shallow beam can be reintroduced as an alternative solution in design process. In addition, the presence of single transverse reinforcement in the joint core can provide additional confinement after the first crack occurred, thus delaying the strength degradation of the structure. Three two-third scale space frame corner beam-column joint subassemblies were also constructed to investigate the biaxial loading effect. Two specimens were deep-deep beam-corner column joint specimens and the other one was deep-shallow beam-corner column joint specimen. One deep-deep beam-corner column joint specimen was not using any transverse reinforcement in the joint core while the two other specimens were using one transverse reinforcement in the joint core. Plain round longitudinal bars were used for all units with hook anchorage for the beam bars. Results from the tests confirmed the evidences from earthquake damage observations with the exterior 3-D (corner) beam-column joint subjected to biaxial loading would have less strength and suffer higher damage in the joint area under earthquake. Furthermore, the joint shear relation in the two directions is calibrated from the results to provide better analysis. An analytical model was used to simulate the seismic behaviour of the joints with the help of Ruaumoko software. Alternative strength degradation curves corresponding to different reinforcement detailing of beam-column joint unit were proposed based on the test results.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Recent earthquakes have highlighted the vulnerability of existing structure to seismic loading. Current seismic retrofit strategies generally focus on increasing the strength/stiffness in order to upgrade the seismic performance of a structure or element. A typical drawback of this approach is that the demand on the structural and sub-structural elements can be increased. This is of particular importance when considering the foundation capacity, which may already be insufficient to allow the full capacity of the existing wall to develop (due to early codes being gravity load orientated). In this thesis a counter intuitive but rational seismic retrofit strategy, termed "selective weakening" is introduced and investigated. This is the first stage of an ongoing research project underway at the University of Canterbury which is focusing on developing selective weakening techniques for the seismic retrofit of reinforced concrete structures. In this initial stage the focus is on developing selective weakening for the seismic retrofit of structural walls. This is performed using a series of experimental, analytical and numerical investigations. A procedure for the assessment of existing structural walls is also compiled, based on the suggestions of currently available code provisions. A selective weakening intervention is performed within an overall performance-based retrofit approach with the aim of improving the inelastic behaviour by first reducing the strength/stiffness of specific members within the structural system. This will be performed with the intention of modifying a shear type behaviour towards a flexural type behaviour. As a result the demand on the structural member will be reduced. Once weakening has been implemented the designer can use the wide range of techniques and materials available (e.g. use of FRP, jacketing or shotcrete) to ensure that adequate characteristics are achieved. Whilst performing this it has to be assured that the structure meets specific performance criteria and the principles of capacity design. A target of the retrofit technique is the ability to introduce the characteristics of recently developed high performance seismic resisting systems, consisting of a self centring and dissipative behaviour (commonly referred to as a hybrid system). In this thesis, results of experimental investigations performed on benchmark and selectively weakened walls are discussed. The investigations consisted of quasi-static cyclic uni-directional tests on two benchmark and two retrofitted cantilever walls. The first benchmark wall is detailed as typical of pre-1970's construction practice. An equivalent wall is retrofitted using a selective weakening approach involving a horizontal cut at foundation level to allow for a rocking response. The second benchmark wall represents a more severe scenario where the inelastic behaviour is dominated by shear. A retrofit solution involving vertically segmenting the wall to improve the ductility and retain gravity carrying capacity by inducing a flexural response is implemented. Numerical investigations on a multi-storey wall system are performed using non linear time history analysis on SDOF and MDOF lumped plasticity models, representing an as built and retrofitted prototype structure. Calibration of the hysteretic response to experimental results is carried out (accounting for pinching and strength degradation). The sensitivity of maximum and residual drifts to p-delta and strength degradation is monitored, along with the sensitivity of the peak base shear to higher mode affects. The results of the experimental and analytical investigations confirmed the feasibility and viability of the proposed retrofit technique, towards improving the seismic performance of structural walls.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This thesis is concerned with the effects of lateral confining reinforcement on the ductile behaviour of reinforced concrete columns. The contents of the chapters are summarized as follows. In Chapter one, the general problems in seismic design are discussed and earthquake design methods based on the ductile design approach are described. Japanese, New Zealand and United States design codes are compared. Finally, the scope of this research project is outlined. In Chapter two, after reviewing previous research on confined concrete, the factors which affect the effectiveness of lateral confinement are discussed. Especially the effects of the yield strength of transverse reinforcement, the compressive strength of plain concrete and the strain gradient in the column section due to bending are discussed based on tests which were conducted by the author et al at Kyoto University and Akashi Technological College, Japan. In the axial compression tests on spirally reinforced concrete cylinders (150 mm in diameter by 300 mm in height), the yield strength of transverse reinforcement and the compressive strength of plain concrete were varied from 161 MPa to 1352 MPa and from 17 MPa to 60 MPa, respectively, as experimental parameters. It is found that, when high strength spirals are used as confining reinforcement, the strength and ductility of the confined core concrete are remarkably enhanced but need to be estimated assuming several failure modes which could occur. These are based on the observations that concrete cylinders with high strength spirals suddenly failed at a concrete compressive strain of 2 to 3.5 % due to explosive crushing of the core concrete between the spiral bars or due to bearing failure of the core concrete immediately beneath the spiral bars, while the concrete cylinders with ordinary strength spirals failed in a gentle manner normally observed. In addition, eccentric loading tests were conducted on concrete columns with 200 mm square section confined by square spirals. It is found that the effectiveness of confining reinforcement is reduced by the presence of the strain gradient along the transverse section of column. In Chapter three, the effectiveness of transverse reinforcement with various types of anchorage details which simplify the fabrication of reinforcing cages are investigated. Eight reinforced concrete columns, with either 400 mm or 550 mm square cross sections, were tested subjected to axial compression loading and cyclic lateral loading which simulated a severe earthquake. The transverse reinforcement consisted of arrangements of square perimeter hoops with 135° end hooks, cross ties with 90° and 135° or 180° end hooks, and 'U' and 'J' shaped cross ties and perimeter hoops with tension splices. Conclusions are reached with regard to the effectiveness of the tested anchorage details in the plastic hinge regions of columns designed for earthquake resistance. In Chapter four, the effectiveness of interlocking spirals as transverse reinforcement is studied. Firstly, the general aspects and the related problems of interlocking spirals to provide adequate ductility in the potential plastic hinge region of columns are discussed, referring to the provisions in the New Zealand code,the CALTRANS (California Transportation Authority) code and other related codes. Secondly, based on those discussions, a design method to securely interlock the spirals is proposed. Thirdly, the effectiveness of interlocking spirals is assessed based on column tests conducted as part of this study. Three columns with interlocking spirals and, for comparison, one rectangular column with rectangular hoopsandcross ties, were tested under cyclic horizontal loading which simulated a severe earthquake. The sections of those columns were 400 mm by 600 mm. In Chapter five, analytical models to investigate the buckling behaviour of longitudinal reinforcement restrained by cross ties with 90° and 135° end hooks and by peripheral hoops are proposed. The analyzed results using the proposed models compare well with the experimental observations described in Chapter three. Using those proposed models, a method to check the effectiveness of cross ties with 90° and 135° end hooks is proposed for practical design purposes. In Chapter six, a theory for the prediction of the ultimate longitudinal compressive concrete strain at the stage of first hoop fracture referred to as the "Energy Balance Theory", which has been developed by Mander, Priestley and Park at University of Canterbury, is introduced. After discussing the problems in the "Energy Balance Theory", a modified theory for the prediction of the ultimate longitudinal compressive concrete strain at the stage of first hoop fracture is proposed. The predictions from the modified theory are found to compare well with previous experimental results.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Based on the recent developments on alternative jointed ductile dry connections for concrete multistorey buildings, the paper aims to extend and propose similar innovative seismic connections for laminated veneer lumber (LVL) timber buildings. The dry connections herein proposed are characterised by a sort of rocking occurring at the section interface of the structural elements when an earthquake occurs; unbonded post-tensioned techniques and dissipative devices respectively provide self-centring and dissipation capacities. The paper illustrates some experimental investigations of an extensive campaign, still undergoing at the University of Canterbury Christchurch, NZ) are herein presented and critically discussed. In particular, results of cyclic quasi-static testing on exterior beam-column subassemblies and wall-to-foundation systems are herein presented; preliminary results of pseudo-dynamic testing on wall-to-foundation specimens are also illustrated. The research investigations confirmed the enhanced seismic performance of these systems/connections; three key aspects , as the no-damageability in the structural elements, typical “flag-shape” cyclic behaviour (with self-centring and dissipation capacity), negligible residual deformations, i.e. limited costs of repair, joined with low mass, flexibility of design and rapidity of construction LVL timber, all create the potential for an increased use in low-rise multistorey buildings.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This research employs a deterministic seismic risk assessment methodology to assess the potential damage and loss at meshblock level in the Christchurch CBD and Mount Pleasant primarily due to building damage caused by earthquake ground shaking. Expected losses in terms of dollar value and casualties are calculated for two earthquake scenarios. Findings are based on: (1) data describing the earthquake ground shaking and microzonation effects; (2) an inventory of buildings by value, floor area, replacement value, occupancy and age; (3) damage ratios defining the performance of buildings as a function of earthquake intensity; (4) daytime and night-time population distribution data and (5) casualty functions defining casualty risk as a function of building damage. A GIS serves as a platform for collecting, storing and analyzing the original and the derived data. It also allows for easy display of input and output data, providing a critical functionality for communication of outcomes. The results of this study suggest that economic losses due to building damage in the Christchurch CBD and Mount Pleasant will possibly be in the order of $5.6 and $35.3 million in a magnitude 8.0 Alpine fault earthquake and a magnitude 7.0 Ashley fault earthquake respectively. Damage to non-residential buildings constitutes the vast majority of the economic loss. Casualty numbers are expected to be between 0 and 10.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This paper presents the probabilistic seismic performance and loss assessment of an actual bridge– foundation–soil system, the Fitzgerald Avenue twin bridges in Christchurch, New Zealand. A two-dimensional finite element model of the longitudinal direction of the system is modelled using advanced soil and structural constitutive models. Ground motions at multiple levels of intensity are selected based on the seismic hazard deaggregation at the site. Based on rigorous examination of several deterministic analyses, engineering demand parameters (EDP’s), which capture the global and local demand, and consequent damage to the bridge and foundation are determined. A probabilistic seismic loss assessment of the structure considering both direct repair and loss of functionality consequences was performed to holistically assess the seismi risk of the system. It was found that the non-horizontal stratification of the soils, liquefaction, and soil–structure interaction had pronounced effects on the seismic demand distribution of the bridge components, of which the north abutment piles and central pier were critical in the systems seismic performance. The consequences due to loss of functionality of the bridge during repair were significantly larger than the direct repair costs, with over a 2% in 50 year probability of the total loss exceeding twice the book-value of the structure.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Liquefaction of sandy soil has been observed to cause significant damage to infrastructure during major earthquakes. Historical cases of liquefaction have typically occurred in sands containing some portion of fines particles, which are defined as 75μm or smaller in diameter. The effects of fines on the undrained behaviour of sand are not however fully understood, and this study therefore attempts to quantify these effects through the undrained testing of sand mixed with non-plastic fines sourced from Christchurch, New Zealand. The experimental program carried out during this study consisted of undrained monotonic and cyclic triaxial tests performed on three different mixtures of sand and fines: the Fitzgerald Bridge mixture (FBM), and two Pinnacles Sand mixtures (PSM1 and PSM2). The fines content of each host sand was systematically varied up to a maximum of 30%, with all test specimens being reconstituted using moist tamping deposition. The undrained test results from the FBM soils were interpreted using a range of different measures of initial state. When using void ratio and relative density, the addition of fines to the FBM sand caused more contractive behaviour for both monotonic and cyclic loadings. This resulted in lower strengths at the steady state of deformation, and lower liquefaction resistances. When the intergranular void ratio was used for the interpretation, the effect of additional fines was to cause less contractive response in the sand. The state parameter and state index were also used to interpret the undrained cyclic test results – these measures suggested that additional fines caused less contractive sand behaviour, the opposite to that observed when using the void ratio. This highlighted the dependency on the parameter chosen as a basis for the response comparison when determining the effects of fines, and pointed out a need to identify a measure that normalizes such effects. Based on the FBM undrained test results and interpretations, the equivalent granular void ratio, e*, was identified from the literature as a measure of initial state that normalizes the effects of fines on the undrained behaviour of sand up to a fines content of 30%. This is done through a parameter within the e* definition termed the fines influence factor, b, which quantifies the effects of fines from a value of zero (no effect) to one (same effect as sand particles). The value of b was also determined to be different when interpreting the steady state lines (bSSL) and cyclic resistance curves (bCR) respectively for a given mixture of sand and fines. The steady state lines and cyclic resistance curves of the FBM soils and a number of other sand-fines mixtures sourced from the literature were subsequently interpreted using the equivalent granular void ratio concept, with bSSL and bCR values being back-calculated from the respective test data sets. Based on these interpretations, it was concluded that e* was conceptually a useful parameter for characterizing and quantifying the effects of fines on the undrained behaviour of sand, assuming the fines influence factor value could be derived. To allow prediction of the fines influence factor values, bSSL and bCR were correlated with material and depositional properties of the presented sand-fines mixtures. It was found that as the size of the fines particles relative to the sand particles became smaller, the values of bSSL and bCR reduced, indicating lower effect of fines. The same trend was also observed as the angularity of the sand particles increased. The depositional method was found to influence the value of bCR, due to the sensitivity of cyclic loading to initial soil fabric. This led to bSSL being used as a reference for the effect of fines, with specimens prepared by moist tamping having bCR > bSSL, and specimens prepared by slurry deposition having bCR < bSSL. Finally the correlations of the fines influence factor values with material and depositional properties were used to define the simplified estimation method – a procedure capable of predicting the approximate steady state lines and cyclic resistance curves of a sand as the non-plastic fines content is increased up to 30%. The method was critically reviewed based on the undrained test results of the PSM1 and PSM2 soils. This review suggested the method could accurately predict undrained response curves as the fines content was raised, based on the PSM1 test results. It also however identified some key issues with the method, such as the inability to accurately predict the responses of highly non-uniform soils, a lack of consideration for the entire particle size distribution of a soil, and the fact the errors in the prediction of bSSL carry through into the prediction of bCR. Lastly some areas of further investigation relating to the method were highlighted, including the need to verify the method through testing of sandy soils sourced from outside the Christchurch area, and the need to correlate the value of bCR with additional soil fabrics / depositional methods.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Porter's Pass-Amberley Fault Zone (PPAFZ) is a complex zone of anastomosing faults and folds bounding the south-eastern edge of the transition from subducting Pacific Plate to continental collision on the Australia Plate boundary. This study combines mapping of a 2000 km2 zone from the Southern Alps northeast to the coast near Amberley, 40 km north of metropolitan Christchurch, with an analysis of seismicity and a revision of regional seismic hazard. Three structural styles: 1) a western strike-slip, and 2) a more easterly thrust and reverse domain, pass into 3) a northwest verging fold belt on the northern Canterbury Plains, reflecting the structural levels exposed and the evolving west to east propagation. Basal remnants of a Late Cretaceous-Cenozoic, largely marine sedimentary cover sequence are preserved as outliers that unconformably overlie Mesozoic basement (greywacke and argillite of the Torlesse terrain) in the mountains of the PPAFZ and are underlain by a deeply leached zone which is widely preserved. Structure contouring of the unconformity surface indicates maximum, differential uplift of c.2600 m in the southwest, decreasing to c.1200 m in the coastal fold belt to the northeast. Much lower rates (or reversal) of uplift are evident a few kilometres southeast of the PPAFZ range-front escarpment. The youngest elements of the cover sequence are basement-derived conglomerates of Plio-Pleistocene age preserved on the SE margin. The source is more distant than the intervening mountains of the PPAFZ, probably from the Southern Alps, to the west and northwest. The absence of another regional unconformity on Mesozoic basement, older than Pleistocene, indicates that this uplift is post-Pliocene. Late Pleistocene(<100 kyr) differential uplift rates of c.0.5-2.7 m/kyr from uplifted marine terraces at the east coast, and rates of 2.5-3.3 m/kyr for tectonically-induced river-down cutting further west, suggest that uplift commenced locally during the last 1 Ma, and possibly within the last 0.5 Ma, if average rates are assumed to be uniform over time. Analysis of seismicity, recorded during a 10 week regional survey of micro earthquakes in 1990, identified two seismic zones beneath North Canterbury: 1) a sub-horizontal zone of activity restricted to the upper crust (≤12 km); and 2) a seismic zone in the lower crust (below a ceiling of ≤17 km), that broadens vertically to the north and northwest to a depth of c.40 km, with a bottom edge which dips 10°N and 15°NW, respectively. No events were recorded at depths between 12 km and 17 km, which is interpreted as a relatively aseismic, mid-crustal ductile layer. Marked differences (up to 60°) in the trend of strain axes for events above and below the inferred ductile layer are observed only north of the PPAFZ. A fundamental, north-to-south increase in the Wave-length of major geological structures occurs across the PPAFZ, and is interpreted as evidence that the upper crust beneath the Canterbury Plains is coupled to the lower crust, whereas the upper crust further north is not. Most of the recorded micro earthquakes <12 km deep beneath the PPAFZ have strike-slip mechanisms. It is probable that faults splay upward into the thrusts and folds at the surface as an evolving transpression zone in response to deep shear in basement. There have been no historic surface ruptures of the PPAFZ, but the zone has been characterised historically by frequent small earthquakes. Paleoseismic data (dated landslides and surface ruptures) compiled in this study, indicate a return period of 1500-1900 years between the last two M>7-7.5 earthquakes, and 500-700 years have elapsed since the last. The magnitudes of these events are estimated at c.M7.5, which represents a probable maximum magnitude for the PPAFZ. There are insufficient data to determine whether or not the frequency of large earthquakes conforms to a recognised model of behaviour, but comparison of the paleoseismic data with the historic record of smaller earthquakes, suggests that the magnitudes of the largest earthquakes in this zone are not exponentially distributed. A seismicity model for the PPAFZ (Elder et al., 1991) is reviewed, and a b-value of 1.0 is found to be consistent with the newly acquired paleoseismic data. This b-value reduces the predicted frequency of large earthquakes (M≥7.0) in this zone by a factor of 3.5, while retaining a conservative margin that allows for temporal variations in the frequency of large events and the possibility that the geological database is incomplete, suggesting grounds for revising the hazard model for Christchurch.