We estimate the causal effects of a large unanticipated natural disaster on high schoolers’ university enrolment decisions and subsequent medium-term labour market outcomes. Using national administrative data after a destructive earthquake in New Zealand, we estimate that the disaster raises tertiary education enrolment of recent high school graduates by 6.1 percentage points. The effects are most pronounced for males, students who are academically weak relative to their peers, and students from schools directly damaged by the disaster. As relatively low ability males are overrepresented in sectors of the labour market helped by the earthquake, greater demand for university may stem from permanent changes in deeper behavioural parameters such as risk aversion or time preference, rather than as a coping response to poor economic opportunities.
For over a decade, an irreplaceable ring laser has been trapped in a cavern 30m below Christchurch port hills. The Carl Zeiss laser was installed in an old World War Two bunker in 1997 until a rockfall after the 2011 Christchurch earthquake sealed the cavern. But now it's been rescued and is fully operational. Professor Jon-Paul Wells is the principal investigator on the ring laser project.