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Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to highlight the role of not-for-profit (NFP) organisations in enhancing disaster preparedness. The authors set out to understand their perspectives and practices in regard to disaster preparedness activities to support people who live precarious lives, especially those who live as single parents who are the least prepared for disasters.Design/methodology/approachThe research draws on in-depth, semi-structured interviews with 12 staff members, either in a group setting or individually, from seven NFP organisations, who were located in Ōtautahi (Christchurch) and Kaiapoi in Aotearoa New Zealand. These participants were interviewed eight years after the 2011 Christchurch earthquake.FindingsFour key narrative tropes or elements were drawn from across the interviews and were used to structure the research results. These included: “essential” support services for people living precarious lives; assisting people to be prepared; potential to support preparedness with the right materials and relationships; resourcing to supply emergency goods.Originality/valueThis research contributes to disaster risk reduction practices by advocating for ongoing resourcing of NFP groups due to their ability to build a sense of community and trust while working with precarious communities, such as single parents.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We examine the role of business interruption (BI) insurance in business recovery following the Christchurch earthquake in 2011. First, we ask whether BI insurance increases the likelihood of business survival in the immediate (3-6 months) aftermath of a disaster. We find positive but statistically insignificant evidence that those firms that had incurred damage, but were covered by BI insurance, had higher likelihood of survival post-quake compared with those firms that did not have any insurance. For the medium-term (2-3 years) survival of firms, our results show a more explicit role for insurance. Firms with BI insurance experience increased productivity and improved performance following a catastrophe. Furthermore, we find that those organisations that receive prompt and full payments of their claims have a better recovery than those that had protracted or inadequate claims payments, but this difference between the two groups is not statistically significant. We find no statistically significant evidence that the latter group (inadequate payment) did any better than those organisations that had damage but no insurance coverage. In general, our analysis indicates the importance not only of adequate insurance coverage, but also of an insurance system that delivers prompt claim payments. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in 'The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice'. The final authenticated version is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41288-017-0067-y. The following terms of use apply: https://www.springer.com/gp/open-access/publication-policies/aam-terms-of-use.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

The standard way in which disaster damages are measured involves examining separately the number of fatalities, of injuries, of people otherwise affected, and the financial damage that natural disasters cause. Here, we implement a novel way to aggregate these separate measures of disaster impact and apply it to two catastrophic events from 2011: the Christchurch (New Zealand) earthquakes and the Greater Bangkok (Thailand) flood. This new measure, which is similar to the World Health Organization's calculation of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost due to the burden of diseases and injuries, is described in detail in Noy [7]. It allows us to conclude that New Zealand lost 180 thousand lifeyears as a result of the 2011 events, and Thailand lost 2644 thousand lifeyears. In per capita terms, the loss is similar, with both countries losing about 15 days per person due to the 2011 catastrophic events in these two countries. © This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

<b>Construction and Demolition (C&D) waste contributes to over 50% of New Zealand’s overall waste. Materials such as timber, plasterboard, and concrete make up 81% of the C&D waste that goes into landfills each year. Alongside this, more than 235 heritage-listed buildings have been demolished in Christchurch since the 2011 earthquakes. This research portfolio aims to find a solution to decrease C&D waste produced by demolishing heritage buildings.</b> With the recent announcement of The Cathedral of the Blessed Sacrament’s demolition, this will be another building added to the list of lost heritage in Christchurch. This research portfolio aims to bridge the relationship between heritage and waste through the recycling and reuse of the demolished materials, exploring the idea that history and heritage are preserved through building material reuse. This research portfolio mainly focuses on reducing construction and demolition waste in New Zealand, using the design of a new Catholic Cathedral as a vessel. This thesis will challenge how the construction and design industry deals with the demolition of heritage buildings and their contribution to New Zealand’s waste. It aims to explore the idea of building material reuse not only to reduce waste but also to retain the history and heritage of the demolished building within the materials.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

<b>Ōtautahi-Christchurch faces the future in an enviable position. Compared to other New Zealand cities Christchurch has lower housing costs, less congestion, and a brand-new central city emerging from the rubble of the 2011 earthquakes. ‘Room to Breathe: designing a framework for medium density housing (MDH) in Ōtautahi-Christchurch’ seeks to answer the timely question how can medium density housing assist Ōtautahi-Christchurch to respond to growth in a way that supports a well-functioning urban environment? Using research by design, the argument is made that MDH can be used to support a safe, accessible, and connected urban environment that fosters community, while retaining a level of privacy. This is achieved through designing a neighbourhood concept addressing 3 morphological scales- macro- the city; meso- the neighbourhood; and micro- the home and street. The scales are used to inform a design framework for MDH specific to Ōtautahi-Christchurch, presenting a typological concept that takes full advantage of the benefits higher density living has to offer.</b> Room to Breathe proposes repurposing underutilised areas surrounding existing mass transit infrastructure to provide a concentrated populous who do not solely rely on private vehicles for transport. By considering all morphological scales Room to Breathe provides one suggestion on how MDH could become accepted as part of a well-functioning urban environment.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

This topic was chosen in response to the devastation caused to Cathedral Square, Christchurch, New Zealand following earthquakes in 2010 and 2011. Working amongst the demolition bought to attention questions about how to re-conceive the square within the rebuilt city. In particular, it raised questions as to how a central square could be better integrated and experienced as a contemporary addition to Christchurch city. This thesis seeks to investigate the ways in which central squares can be better integrated with the contemporary city and how New Urbanist design principles can contribute toward this union. The research principally focuses on the physical and spatial integration of the square with the contemporary city. A drawing-based analysis of select precedent case studies helped to determine early on that overall integration of the contemporary square could be attributed to several interdependent criteria. The detailed studies are supplemented further with literature-based research that narrowed the criteria to five integrative properties. These are: identity, scale and proportion, use, connectivity and natural landscape. These were synthesised, in part, from the integrative New Urbanist movement and the emerging integrative side of the more contemporary Post Urbanist movement. The literature-based research revealed that a more inclusive approach toward New Urbanist and Post Urbanist design methodologies may also produce a more integrated and contemporary square. Three design case studies, using the redesign of Cathedral Square, were undertaken to test this hypothesis. The case studies found that overall, integration was reliant on a harmonious balance between the five integrative properties, concluding that squares can be better integrated with the contemporary city. Further testing of the third concept, which embraced an allied New Urbanist / Post Urbanist approach to design, found that New Urbanism was limited in its contribution toward the integration of the square.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Christchurch was struck by a 6.3 magnitude earthquake on the 22 February 2011. The quake devastated the city, taking lives and causing widespread damage to the inner city and suburban homes. The central city lost over half its buildings and over 7000 homes were condemned throughout Christchurch. The loss of such a great number of homes has created the requirement for new housing to replace those that were lost. Many of which were located in the eastern, less affluent, suburbs.  The response to the housing shortage is the planned creation of large scale subdivisions on the outskirts of the city. Whilst this provides the required housing it creates additional sprawl to a city that does not need it. The extension of Christchurch’s existing suburban sprawl puts pressure on roading and pushes residents further out of the city, creating a disconnection between them.  Christchurch’s central city had a very small residential population prior to the earthquakes with very few options for dense inner city living. The proposed rebuild of the inner city calls for a new ‘dense, vibrant and diverse central hub’. Proposing the introduction of new residential units within the central city. However the placement of the low-rise housing in a key attribute of the rebuild, the eastern green ‘Frame’, diminishes its value as open green space. The proposed housing will also be restrictive in its target market and therefore the idea of a ‘vibrant’ inner city is difficult to achieve.  This thesis acts as response to the planned rebuild of inner Christchurch. Proposing the creation of a model for inner city housing which provides an alternative option to the proposed housing and existing and ongoing suburban sprawl. The design options were explored through a design-led process were the options were critiqued and developed.  The ‘final’ proposal is comprises of three tall towers, aptly named the Triple Towers, which condense the proposed low-rise housing from an 11000 square metre footprint to combined footprint of 1500 square metres. The result is an expansion of the publicly available green space along the proposed eastern frame of the city. The height of the project challenges the height restrictions and is provocative in its proposal and placement. The design explores the relationships between the occupants, the building, the ‘Frame’ and the central city.  The project is discussed through an exploration of the architecture of Rem Koolhaas, Renzo Piano and Oscar Niemeyer. Rather than their architecture being taken as a direct influence on which the design is based the discussion revolves around how and why each piece of comparative architecture is relevant to the designs desired outcome.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

A Line of Best Fit explores weakness and disconnection in the city. Weakness: There are over 600 earthquake prone buildings in Wellington. The urgency to strengthen buildings risks compromising the aesthetic integrity of the city through abrasive strengthening techniques, or losing a large portion of our built environment to demolition. The need for extensive earthquake strengthening in Wellington, Christchurch and other New Zealand cities provides an exciting opportunity for architecture. Disconnection: In Wellington pedestrian activity is focused around three main routes: Cuba Street, Lambton Quay and Courtney Place. The adjacent areas are often disconnected and lack vibrancy due to large building footprints, no-exit laneways and lack of public spaces. The Design proposes a strategy for earthquake strengthening, preserving and upgrading the built environment, and expanding and connecting the pedestrian realm. The site is two earthquake prone buildings on the block between Marion Street and Taranaki Street in central Wellington. A cut through the centre of the Aspro and Cathie Buildings ties the buildings together to strengthen and create a new arcade as public space. The cut aligns with existing pedestrian routes connecting the block with the city. The Design is divided into three components: Void, Curve, and Pattern and Structure. Void investigates the implications of cutting a portion out the existing buildings and the opportunities this provides for connection, urban interaction, and light. Curve discusses the unusual form of The Design in terms of scale, the human response and the surrounding spaces. Pattern and Structure considers the structural requirements of the project and how a void enveloped in perforated screens can strengthen the earthquake prone buildings. The importance of connection, providing strength in the city, a dialogue between old and new, and engagement with the unexpected are evaluated. Opportunities for further development and research are discussed, with particular reference to how the principles of The Design could be implemented on a larger scale throughout our cities. A Line of Best Fit is an architectural proposal that creates strength and connection.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Urban Ensembles explores the way in which landscape and architecture can be employed together within the design of a steep, urban site. Lyttelton is a small port town on the border of Christchurch, settled in the foothills of a harbour formed by a major volcanic eruption. This rugged setting, with steeply sloping urban terrain, presents an interesting challenge when designing an urban development. The site was badly damaged in a series of earthquakes in 2010-2011, and many of the town’s oldest buildings, heritage structures dating back to the colonial settlement era, were destroyed. This has left a void in the heart of Lyttelton, and caused the loss of much of the tourism business that the town relies upon for its income. This thesis takes a methodological approach to the design of landscape architecture on such a challenging site. A range of techniques are explored, drawing from both landscape and architecture to explore the roles that each discipline plays in the design of urban spaces. The frequent imbalance between disciplines is addressed both through the literature review and design method, as this landscape architecture thesis draws on architectural design as a tool for generating spaces which fall somewhere in between the two ideals of interior and exterior. The final design proposal is an alternative rebuild plan for the central business area to the south of London St, and also addresses the relationships between that site and the surrounding context, both urban and environmental. The aim of this design is to create a series of interconnected spaces which have a strong relationship to the surrounding harbour setting, and also to facilitate development of the pedestrian spaces throughout the block and encouraging the development of activity at the street level, through the interface between buildings and landscape.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

The Mѡ=7.1 Darfield (Canterbury) earthquake struck on 4 September 2010, approximately 45 km west of Christchurch, New Zealand. It revealed a previously unknown fault (the Greendale fault) and caused billions of dollars of damage due to high peak ground velocities and extensive liquefaction. It also triggered the Mw=6.3 Christchurch earthquake on 22 February 2011, which caused further damage and the loss of 185 lives. The objective of this research was to determine the relationship between stress and seismic properties in a seismically active region using manually-picked P and S wave arrival times from the aftershock sequence between 8 September 2010-13 January 2011 to estimate shear-wave splitting (SWS) parameters, VP =VS-ratios, anisotropy (delay-time tomography), focal mechanisms, and tectonic stress on the Canterbury plains. The maximum horizontal stress direction was highly consistent in the plains, with an average value of SHmax=116 18 . However, the estimates showed variation in SHmax near the fault, with one estimate rotating by as much as 30° counter-clockwise. This suggests heterogeneity of stress at the fault, though the cause remains unclear. Orientations of the principal stresses predominantly indicate a strike-slip regime, but there are possible thrust regimes to the west and north/east of the fault. The SWS fast directions (ø) on the plains show alignment with SHmax at the majority of stations, indicating stress controlled anisotropy. However, structural effects appear more dominant in the neighbouring regions of the Southern Alps and Banks Peninsula.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

In the aftermath of the 2011 earthquake, a state of polycentric urbanity was thrust upon New Zealand’s second largest city. As the city-centre lay in disrepair, smaller centres started to materialise elsewhere, out of necessity. Transforming former urban peripheries and within existing suburbs into a collective, dispersed alternative to the city centre, these sub-centres prompted a range of morphological, socio-cultural and political transformations, and begged multiple questions: how to imbue these new sub-centres with gravity? How to render them a genuine alternative to the CBD? How do they operate within the wider city? How to cope with the physical and cultural transformations of this shifting urbanscape and prevent them occurring ad lib? Indeed, the success and functioning of the larger urban structure hinges upon a critical, informed response to these sub-centre urban contexts. Yet, with an unrelenting focus on the CBD rebuild - effectively a polycentric denial - little such attention has been granted.  Taking this urban condition as its premise and its provocation, this thesis investigates architecture’s role in the emergent sub-centre. It asks: what can architecture do in these urban contexts; how can architecture act upon the emergent sub-centre in a critical, catalytic fashion? Identifying this volatile condition as both an opportunity for architectural experimentation and a need for critical architectural engagement, this thesis seeks to explore the sub-centre (as an idea and actual urban context) as architecture’s project: its raison d’etre, impetus and aspiration.  These inquiries are tested through design-led research: an initial design question provoking further, broader discursive research (and indeed, seeking broader implications). The first section is a site-specific, design for Sumner, Christchurch. Titled ‘An Agora Anew’; this project - both in conception and outcome - is a speculative response to a specific sub-centre condition. The second section ‘The Sub-centre as Architecture’s Project’ explores the ideas provoked by the design project within a discursive framework. Firstly it identifies the sub-centre as a context in desperate need of architectural attention (why architecture?); secondly, it negotiates a possible agenda for architecture in this context through terms of engagement that are formal, critical and opportunistic (how architecture?): enabling it to take a position on and in the sub-centre. Lastly, a critical exegesis positions the design in regards to the broader discursive debate: critiquing it an architectural project predicated upon the idea of the sub-centre.  The implications of this design-led thesis are twofold: firstly, for architecture’s role in the sub-centre (especially to Christchurch); secondly for the possibilities of architecture’s productive engagement with the city (largely through architectural form), more generally. In a century where radical, new urban contexts (of which the sub-centre is just one) are commonplace, this type of thinking – what can architecture do in the city? - is imperative.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Following devastating earthquakes in 2010 and 2011 in Christchurch, there is an opportunity to use sustainable urban design variables to redevelop the central city in order to address climate change concerns and reduce CO₂ emissions from land transport. Literature from a variety of disciplines establishes that four sustainable urban design variables; increased density, mixed-use development, street layout and city design, and the provision of sustainable public transport, can reduce car dependency and vehicle kilometres travelled within urban populations- widely regarded as indicators of the negative environmental effects of transport.  The key question for the research is; to what extent has this opportunity been seized by NZ’s Central Government who are overseeing the central city redevelopment? In order to explore this question the redevelopment plans for the central city of Christchurch are evaluated against an adapted urban design matrix to determine whether a reduction in CO₂ emissions from land transport is likely to be achieved through their implementation. Data obtained through interviews with experts is used to further explore the extent to which sustainable urban design variables can be employed to enhance sustainability and reduce CO₂ emissions.  The analysis of this data shows that the four urban design variables will feature in the Central Government’s redevelopment plans although the extent to which they are employed and their likely success in reducing CO₂ emissions will vary. Ultimately, the opportunity to redevelop the central city of Christchurch to reduce CO₂ emissions from land transport will be undermined due to timeframe, co-ordination, and leadership barriers.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

The whare whakairo or traditional Māori meeting house plays an important part in Māori society and identity. These whare tell the tale of their origin, and in so doing, the origins of their people. The analysis of the meeting house, the histories expressed in its decorative carvings and structural elements are inextricably linked with and dependent upon the structure of the world created by myth and the Māori worldview. However, due to the deleterious effects of colonisation, the art of wood carving and associated architectural practices - central to Māori identity, suffered decline in many parts of the country, leading to the decline of Māori culture and identity. Sir Apirana Ngata instigated the National Institute of Māori Arts and Crafts to resurrect the dying art of Māori carving and carved houses would be a catalyst for the restoration of Māori culture throughout the country. Ngata saw these whare whakairo as being the heart of Māori communities by establishing a renewed sense of belonging and identification with space for Māori, through the telling of tribal histories and emphasising key geographical features. New threats in the form of global hegemony and urbanisation have further impacted on Māori notions of identity, creating a generation of displaced urban Māori youth. This research proposes to establish an architectural response to capture displaced Māori youth through the resurrection of the Māori carving school and return to them the lost stories of their cultural history and identity. This program will be developed within the complex challenges that exist within post-earthquake Ōtautahi/Christchurch, where many have lost homes and livelihoods, especially Māori youth in the Eastern Suburbs. The building elements of the proposed Māori carving school give reference to the historio-cultural features of the original Ōtautahi/Christchurch landscape that are situated in tribal song and myth. It is envisioned that the development of a Māori carving school will help restore Māori identity and a renewed sense of belonging, and allow for the telling of this generations stories through traditional narratives.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Located on the edge of two tectonic plates, New Zealand has numerous fault lines and seismic risk across the whole country. The way this risk is communicated affects whether people prepare effectively or at all. Research has shown that perceptions of risk are affected by slight changes in wording, and that probabilities commonly reported by experts and media are often interpreted subjectively based on context. In the context of volcanoes, research has found that given a certain probability of a volcano in a specific time window, people perceive risk as higher in later time intervals within that window. The present study examines this pattern with regard to earthquakes and aftershocks in the New Zealand context. Participants in both Wellington (N = 102) and Christchurch (N = 98) were presented an expert statement of earthquake risk within a given time window in Wellington and aftershock risk in Christchurch, and asked to rate their perception of risk in specific intervals across the time window. For a Wellington earthquake, participants perceived risk as incrementally higher toward the end of the 50 year time window whereas for a Christchurch aftershock, risk perception increased slightly for the first three intervals of the 12 month time window. Likelihood of preparing was constant over the time windows, with Wellington citizens rating themselves more likely than Christchurch citizens to prepare for either an earthquake or aftershock, irrespective of current level of preparedness. These findings suggest that people view earthquakes as more likely later toward the end of a given time window and that they view aftershocks very differently to scientific predictions.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

When the devastating 6.3 magnitude earthquake hit Christchurch, Aotearoa New Zealand, at 12.51pm on 22nd February 2011, the psychological and physical landscape was irrevocably changed. In the days and weeks following the disaster communities were isolated due to failed infrastructure, continuing aftershocks and the extensive search and rescue effort which focussed resources on the central business district. In such moments the resilience of a community is truly tested. This research discusses the role of grassroots community groups in facilitating community resilience during the Christchurch 2010/11 earthquakes and the role of place in doing so. I argue that place specific strategies for urban resilience need to be enacted from a grassroots level while being supported by broader policies and agencies.  Using a case study of Project Lyttelton – a group aspiring towards a resilient sustainable future who were caught at the epicentre of the February earthquake – I demonstrate the role of a community group in creating resilience through self-organised place specific action during a disaster. The group provided emotional care, basic facilities and rebuilding assistance to the residents of Lyttelton, proving to be an invaluable asset. These actions are closely linked to the characteristics of social support and social learning that have been identified as important to socio-ecological resilience. In addition this research will seek to understand and explore the nuances of place and identity and its role in shaping resilience to such dis-placing events. Drawing on community narratives of the displacement of place identity, the potential for a progressive sense of place as instigated by local groups will be investigated as an avenue for adaptation by communities at risk of disaster and place destabilisation.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

The standard way in which disaster damages are measured involves examining separately the number of fatalities, of injuries, of people otherwise affected, and the financial damage that natural disasters cause. Here, we implement a novel way to aggregate these separate measures of disaster impact and apply it to two recent catastrophic events: the Christchurch (New Zealand) earthquakes and the Greater Bangkok (Thailand) floods of 2011. This new measure, which is similar to the World Health Organization’s calculation of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost from the burden of diseases and injuries, is described in detail in Noy (2014). It allows us to conclude that New Zealand lost 180 thousand lifeyears as a result of the 2011 events, and Thailand lost 2,644 thousand years. In per capita terms, the loss is similar, with both countries losing about 15 days per person due to the 2011 catastrophic events in these two countries. We also compare these events to other potentially similar events.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We examine the role of business interruption insurance in business recovery following the Christchurch earthquake in 2011 in the short- and medium-term. In the short-term analysis, we ask whether insurance increases the likelihood of business survival in the aftermath of a disaster. We find only weak evidence that those firms that had incurred damage, but were covered by business interruption insurance, had higher likelihood of survival post-quake compared with those firms that did not have insurance. This absence of evidence may reflect the high degree of uncertainty in the months following the 2011 earthquake and the multiplicity of severe aftershocks. For the medium-term, our results show a more explicit role for insurance in the aftermath of a disaster. Firms with business interruption insurance have a higher probability of increasing productivity and improved performance following a catastrophe. Furthermore, our results show that those organisations that receive prompt and full payments of their claims have a better recovery, in terms of profitability and a subjective ‘”better off” measure’ than those that had protracted or inadequate claim payments (less than 80% of the claim paid within 2.5 years). Interestingly, the latter group does worse than those organisations that had damage but no insurance coverage. This analysis strongly indicates the importance not only of good insurance coverage, but of an insurance system that also delivers prompt claim payments. As a first paper attempting to empirically identify a causal effect of insurance on business recovery, we also emphasize some caveats to our analysis.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Earthquakes are insured only with public sector involvement in high-income countries where the risk of earthquakes is perceived to be high. The proto-typical examples of this public sector involvement are the public earthquake insurance schemes in California, Japan, and New Zealand (NZ). Each of these insurance programs is structured differently, and the purpose of this paper is to examine these differences using a concrete case-study, the sequence of earthquakes that occurred in the Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2011. This event turned out to have been the most heavily insured earthquake event in history. We examine what would have been the outcome of the earthquakes had the system of insurance in NZ been different. In particular, we focus on the public earthquake insurance programs in California (the California Earthquake Authority - CEA), and in Japan (Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance - JER). Overall, the aggregate cost to the public insurer in NZ was $NZ 11.1 billion in its response to the earthquakes. If a similar-sized disaster event had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received $NZ 2.5 billion and $NZ 1.4 billion from the JER and CEA, respectively. We further describe the spatial and distributive patterns of these different scenarios.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We measure the longer-term effect of a major earthquake on the local economy, using night-time light intensity measured from space, and investigate whether insurance claim payments for damaged residential property affected the local recovery process. We focus on the destructive Christchurch earthquake of 2011 as our case study. In this event more than 95% of residential housing units were covered by insurance, but insurance payments were staggered over 5 years, enabling us to identify their local impact. We find that night-time luminosity can capture the process of recovery and describe the recovery’s determinants. We also find that insurance payments contributed significantly to the process of economic recovery after the earthquake, but delayed payments were less affective and cash settlement of claims were more affective in contributing to local recovery than insurance-managed rebuilding.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We estimate the causal effects of a large unanticipated natural disaster on high schoolers’ university enrolment decisions and subsequent medium-term labour market outcomes. Using national administrative data after a destructive earthquake in New Zealand, we estimate that the disaster raises tertiary education enrolment of recent high school graduates by 6.1 percentage points. The effects are most pronounced for males, students who are academically weak relative to their peers, and students from schools directly damaged by the disaster. As relatively low ability males are overrepresented in sectors of the labour market helped by the earthquake, greater demand for university may stem from permanent changes in deeper behavioural parameters such as risk aversion or time preference, rather than as a coping response to poor economic opportunities.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

This paper begins with a discussion of the history of negligent manslaughter in New Zealand and its development from the standard of ordinary negligence to the current test of a “major departure” from the expected standard of care, as set out under s 150A of the Crimes Act 1961. The paper then examines failings in s 150A’s current application, arguing that the “major departure” test has created injustices due to its strictly objective nature. Two examples of this are discussed in-depth, Bawa-Garba v R (UK) where a doctor was convicted of grossly negligent manslaughter for the death of her patient; and the decision not to prosecute the negligent engineers of the CTV building which collapsed in the Christchurch earthquake of 2011. The paper discusses three potential resolutions moving forward. It concludes that a more subjective interpretation of the wording of s 150A, which takes account of circumstances excusing or condemning a defendant’s conduct, would prevent future injustices and be a reasonably open interpretation on the wording of s 150A.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The timing of large Holocene prehistoric earthquakes is determined by dated surface ruptures and landslides at the edge of the Australia-Pacific plate boundary zone in North Canterbury, New Zealand. Collectively, these data indicate two large (M > 7) earthquakes during the last circa 2500 years, within a newly formed zone of hybrid strike-slip and thrust faulting herein described as the Porter's Pass-to-Amberley Fault Zone (PPAFZ). Two earlier events during the Holocene are also recognized, but the data prior to 2500 years are presumed to be incomplete. A return period of 1300–2000 years between large earthquakes in the PPAFZ is consistent with a late Holocene slip rate of 3–4 mm/yr if each displacement is in the range 4–8 m. Historical seismicity in the PPAFZ is characterized by frequent small and moderate magnitude earthquakes and a seismicity rate that is identical to a region surrounding the structurally mature Hope fault of the Marlborough Fault System farther north. This is despite an order-of-magnitude difference in slip rate between the respective fault zones and considerable differences in the recurrence rate of large earthquakes. The magnitude-frequency distribution in the Hope fault region is in accord with the characteristic earthquake model, whereas the rate of large earthquakes in the PPAFZ is approximated (but over predicted) by the Gutenberg-Richter model. The comparison of these two fault zones demonstrates the importance of the structural maturity of the fault zone in relation to seismicity rates inferred from recent, historical, and paleoseismic data.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

This article reports on a study of community attitudes to cruise tourism in Akaroa, New Zealand. An important dimension of this study is the significant rate of growth in cruise arrivals over a short period of time as the result of the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes. Data were collected via a postal survey of the Akaroa community, and yielded a response rate of 56.6% (n = 316). The results indicate that despite the recent growth in arrivals, the Akaroa community holds a largely favorable opinion of cruise tourism. Importantly, the impacts identified by respondents were more closely aligned to threats to their identity as a destination, rather than problems with tourism, per se.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Tree mortality is a fundamental process governing forest dynamics, but understanding tree mortality patterns is challenging because large, long-term datasets are required. Describing size-specific mortality patterns can be especially difficult, due to few trees in larger size classes. We used permanent plot data from Nothofagus solandri var. cliffortioides (mountain beech) forest on the eastern slopes of the Southern Alps, New Zealand, where the fates of trees on 250 plots of 0.04 ha were followed, to examine: (1) patterns of size-specific mortality over three consecutive periods spanning 30 years, each characterised by different disturbance, and (2) the strength and direction of neighbourhood crowding effects on sizespecific mortality rates. We found that the size-specific mortality function was U-shaped over the 30-year period as well as within two shorter periods characterised by small-scale pinhole beetle and windthrow disturbance. During a third period, characterised by earthquake disturbance, tree mortality was less size dependent. Small trees (,20 cm in diameter) were more likely to die, in all three periods, if surrounded by a high basal area of larger neighbours, suggesting that sizeasymmetric competition for light was a major cause of mortality. In contrast, large trees ($20 cm in diameter) were more likely to die in the first period if they had few neighbours, indicating that positive crowding effects were sometimes important for survival of large trees. Overall our results suggest that temporal variability in size-specific mortality patterns, and positive interactions between large trees, may sometimes need to be incorporated into models of forest dynamics.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Numerous studies have shown that urban soils can contain elevated concentrations of heavy metals (HMs). Christchurch, New Zealand, is a relatively young city (150 years old) with a population of 390,000. Most soils in Christchurch are sub-urban, with food production in residential gardens a popular activity. Earthquakes in 2010 and 2011 have resulted in the re-zoning of 630 ha of Christchurch, with suggestions that some of this land could be used for community gardens. We aimed to determine the HM concentrations in a selection of suburban gardens in Christchurch as well as in soils identified as being at risk of HM contamination due to hazardous former land uses or nearby activities. Heavy metal concentrations in suburban Christchurch garden soils were higher than normal background soil concentrations. Some 46% of the urban garden samples had Pb concentrations higher than the residential land use national standard of 210 mg kg⁻¹, with the most contaminated soil containing 2615 mg kg⁻¹ Pb. Concentrations of As and Zn exceeded the residential land use national standards (20 mg kg⁻¹ As and 400 mg kg⁻¹ Zn) in 20% of the soils. Older neighbourhoods had significantly higher soil HM concentrations than younger neighbourhoods. Neighbourhoods developed pre-1950s had a mean Pb concentration of 282 mg kg⁻¹ in their garden soils. Soil HM concentrations should be key criteria when determining the future land use of former residential areas that have been demolished because of the earthquakes in 2010 and 2011. Redeveloping these areas as parklands or forests would result in less human HM exposure than agriculture or community gardens where food is produced and bare soil is exposed.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Natural hazards continue to have adverse effects on communities and households worldwide, accelerating research on proactively identifying and enhancing characteristics associated with resilience. Although resilience is often characterized as a return to normal, recent studies of postdisaster recovery have highlighted the ways in which new opportunities can emerge following disruption, challenging the status quo. Conversely, recovery and reconstruction may serve to reinforce preexisting social, institutional, and development pathways. Our understanding of these dynamics is limited however by the small number of practice examples, particularly for rural communities in developed nations. This study uses a social–ecological inventory to document the drivers, pathways, and mechanisms of resilience following a large-magnitude earthquake in Kaikōura, a coastal community in Aotearoa New Zealand. As part of the planning and implementation phase of a multiyear project, we used the tool as the basis for indepth and contextually sensitive analysis of rural resilience. Moreover, the deliberate application of social–ecological inventory was the first step in the research team reengaging with the community following the event. The inventory process provided an opportunity for research partners to share their stories and experiences and develop a shared understanding of changes that had taken place in the community. Results provide empirical insight into reactions to disruptive change associated with disasters. The inventory also informed the design of targeted research collaborations, established a platform for longer-term community engagement, and provides a baseline for assessing longitudinal changes in key resilience-related characteristics and community capacities. Findings suggest the utility of social–ecological inventory goes beyond natural resource management, and that it may be appropriate in a range of contexts where institutional, social, and economic restructuring have developed out of necessity in response to felt or anticipated external stressors.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

On 14 November 2016, a magnitude (Mw) 7.8 earthquake struck the small coastal settlement of Kaikōura, Aotearoa-New Zealand. With an economy based on tourism, agriculture, and fishing, Kaikōura was immediately faced with significant logistical, economic, and social challenges caused by damage to critical infrastructure and lifelines, essential to its main industries. Massive landslips cut offroad and rail access, stranding hundreds of tourists, and halting the collection, processing and distribution of agricultural products. At the coast, the seabed rose two metres, limiting harbour-access to high tide, with implications for whale watching tours and commercial fisheries. Throughout the region there was significant damage to homes, businesses, and farmland, leaving owners and residents facing an uncertain future. This paper uses qualitative case study analysis to explore post-quake transformations in a rural context. The aim is to gain insight into the distinctive dynamics of disaster response mechanisms, focusing on two initiatives that have emerged in direct response to the disaster. The first examines the ways in which agriculture, food harvesting, production and distribution are being reimagined with the potential to enhance regional food security. The second examines the rescaling of power in decision-making processes following the disaster, specifically examining the ways in which rural actors are leveraging networks to meet their needs and the consequences of that repositioning on rural (and national) governance arrangements. In these and other ways, the local economy is being revitalised, and regional resilience enhanced through diversification, capitalising not on the disaster but the region's natural, social, and cultural capital. Drawing on insights and experience of local stakeholders, policy- and decision-makers, and community representatives we highlight the diverse ways in which these endeavours are an attempt to create something new, revealing also the barriers which needed to be overcome to reshape local livelihoods. Results reveal that the process of transformation as part of rural recovery must be grounded in the lived reality of local residents and their understanding of place, incorporating and building on regional social, environmental, and economic characteristics. In this, the need to respond rapidly to realise opportunities must be balanced with the community-centric approach, with greater recognition given to the contested nature of the decisions to be made. Insights from the case examples can inform preparedness and recovery planning elsewhere, and provide a rich, real-time example of the ways in which disasters can create opportunities for reimagining resilient futures.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Creativity that is driven by a need for physical or economic survival, which disasters are likely to inspire, raises the question of whether such creativity fits with conventional theories and perspectives of creativity. In this paper we use the opportunity afforded by the 2010-2013 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes to follow and assess the creative practices and responses of a number of groups and individuals. We use in-depth interviews to tease out motivations and read these against a range of theoretical propositions about creativity. In particular, we focus on the construct of “elite panic” and the degree to which this appeared to be evident in the Christchurch earthquakes context. Bureaucratic attempts to control or limit creativity were present but they did not produce a completely blanket dampening effect. Certain individuals and groups seemed to be pre-equipped to navigate or ignore potential blocks to creativity. We argue, using Geir Kaufmann’s novelty-creativity matrix and aspects of Teresa Amabile’s and Michael G. Pratt’s revised componential theory of creativity that a special form of disaster creativity does exist.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The paper examines community benefits provided by an established community garden following a major earthquake and discusses possible implications for community garden planning and design in disaster-prone cities. Recent studies show that following extreme storm events community gardens can supply food, enhance social empowerment, provide safe gathering spots, and restorative practices, to remind people of normality. However, the beneficial role played by community gardens following earthquakes is less well known. To fill this gap, the study examines the role played by a community garden in Christchurch, New Zealand, following the 2010/2011 Canterbury Earthquakes. The garden's role is evaluated based on a questionnaire-based survey and in-depth interviews with gardeners, as well as on data regarding the garden use before and after the earthquakes. Findings indicate the garden helped gardeners cope with the post-quake situation. The garden served as an important place to de-stress, share experiences, and gain community support. Garden features that reportedly supported disaster recovery include facilities that encourage social interaction and bonding such as central meeting and lunch places and communal working areas.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The 2013 Seddon earthquake (Mw 6.5), the 2013 Lake Grassmere earthquake (Mw 6.6), and the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake (Mw 7.8) provided an opportunity to assemble the most extensive damage database to wine storage tanks ever compiled worldwide. An overview of this damage database is presented herein based on the in-field post-earthquake damage data collected for 2058 wine storage tanks (1512 legged tanks and 546 flat-based tanks) following the 2013 earthquakes and 1401 wine storage tanks (599 legged tanks and 802 flat-based tanks) following the 2016 earthquake. Critique of the earthquake damage database revealed that in 2013, 39% and 47% of the flat-based wine tanks sustained damage to their base shells and anchors respectively, while due to resilience measures implemented following the 2013 earthquakes, in the 2016 earthquake the damage to tank base shells and tank anchors of flat-based wine tanks was reduced to 32% and 23% respectively and instead damage to tank barrels (54%) and tank cones (43%) was identified as the two most frequently occurring damage modes for this type of tank. Analysis of damage data for legged wine tanks revealed that the frame-legs of legged wine tanks sustained the greatest damage percentage among different parts of legged tanks in both the 2013 earthquakes (40%) and in the 2016 earthquake (44%). Analysis of damage data and socio-economic findings highlight the need for industry-wide standards, which may have socio-economic implications for wineries.