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Research Papers, Lincoln University

The coordination of actors has been a major focus for much of the research in the disaster relief humanitarian logistics discipline. While much of this literature focuses on the initial response phase, little has been written on the longer term recover phase. As the response phase transitions into the longer term recover phase the number and types of actors change from predominantly disaster relief NGOs to more commercial entities we argue that humanitarian values should still be part of the rebuild phase. It has been noted that humanitarian actors both cooperate and compete at the same time (Balcik, Beamon, Krejci, Muramatsu and Ramirez, 2010), in a form of behavior that can be described as ‘co-opetition’ (Nalebuff and Brandenburger, 1996). We use a case study approach to examine an organizational model used to coordinate civil and commercial actors for the rebuild of the civil infrastructure for Christchurch, New Zealand following a series of devastating earthquakes in 2010/11. For the rebuild phase we argue that ‘co-opetition’ is a key behaviour that allows the blending of humanitarian and commercial values to help communities rebuild to a new normal. While at this early stage our contribution is limited, we eventually hope to fully elaborate on an organisational model that has been created specifically for the tight coordination of commercial actors and its relevance to the rebuild phase of a disaster. Examining the behaviour of co-opetition and the structures that incentivise this behaviour offers insights for the humanitarian logistic field.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The Canterbury earthquakes that happened in 2010 and 2011 have attracted many migrant workers to the region to assist with the rebuilding effort. However, research on the impact of influx of migrants on the labour market outcomes of a local industry post-disaster is limited internationally and locally. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of the Canterbury earthquakes on the changes in demographic composition and occupational structure for the local and foreign workers in the Greater Christchurch construction industry. Replicating the discrete dependent variable regression methods used in the study by Sisk and Bankston III (2014), this study also aimed to compare their findings on the impact of the influx of migrants on the New Orleans construction industry with outcomes in Greater Christchurch. Customised data from New Zealand Censuses 2006 and 2013 were used to represent the pre- and post-earthquake periods. This study found that the rebuild has provided opportunities for migrant workers to enter the Greater Christchurch construction industry. The increased presence of migrant construction workers did not displace the locals. In fact, the likelihoods for both locals’ and migrants’ participation in the industry improved post-earthquakes. The earthquakes also increased overall workers’ participation at the lowest end of the occupational structure. However, the earthquakes created few significant changes to the distribution of local and migrant workers at the various occupational levels in the industry. Local workers still dominated all occupational levels post-earthquakes. The aggregated education levels of the construction workers were higher post-earthquakes, particularly among the migrant workers. Overall, migrant workers in the Greater Christchurch construction industry were more diverse, more educated and participated in higher occupational levels than migrants assisting in the New Orleans rebuild, due possibly to differences in immigration policies between New Zealand and the United States of America.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

The susceptibility of precast hollow-core floors to sustain critical damage during an earthquake is now well-recognized throughout the structural engineering community in New Zealand. The lack of shear reinforcement in these floor units is one of the primary reasons causing issues with the seismic performance of these floors. Recent research has revealed that the unreinforced webs of these floor units can crack at drift demands as low as 0.6%. Such observation indicates that potentially many of the existing building stock incorporating hollow-core flooring systems in cities of relatively high seismic activity (e.g. Wellington and Christchurch) that probably have already experienced a level of shaking higher than 0.6% drift in previous earthquakes might already have their floor units cracked. However, there is little information available to reliably quantify the residual gravity load-carrying capacity of cracked hollow-core floor units, highlighting the need to understand the post-cracking behavior of hollow-core floor units to better quantify the extent of the risk that cracked hollow-core floor units pose.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Eastern Humps and Leader faults, situated in the Mount Stewart Range in North Canterbury, are two of the ≥17 faults which ruptured during the 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake. The earthquake produced complex, intersecting ground ruptures of these faults and the co-seismic uplift of the Mount Stewart Range. This thesis aims to determine how these two faults accommodated deformation during the 2016 earthquake and how they interact with each other and with pre-existing geological structures. In addition, it aims to establish the most likely subsurface geometry of the fault complex across the Mount Stewart Range, and to investigate the paleoseismic history of the Leader Fault. The Eastern Humps Fault strikes ~240° and dips 80° to 60° to the northwest and accommodated right- lateral – reverse-slip, with up to 4 m horizontal and 2 m vertical displacement in the 2016 earthquake. The strike of the Leader Fault varies from ~155 to ~300°, and dips ~30 to ~80° to the west/northwest, and mainly accommodated left-lateral – reverse-slip of up to 3.5 m horizontal and 3.5 m vertical slip in the 2016 earthquake. On both the Eastern Humps and Leader faults the slip is variable along strike, with areas of low total displacement and areas where horizontal and vertical displacement are negatively correlated. Fault traces with low total displacement reflect the presence of off-fault (distributed) displacement which is not being captured with field measurements. The negative correlation of horizontal and vertical displacement likely indicates a degree of slip partitioning during the 2016 earthquake on both the Eastern Humps and Leader faults. The Eastern Humps and Leader faults have a complex, interdependent relationship with the local bedrock geology. The Humps Fault appears to be a primary driver of ongoing folding and deformation of the local Mendip Syncline and folding of the Mount Stewart Range, which probably began prior to, or synchronous with, initial rupture of The Humps Fault. The Leader Fault appears to use existing lithological weaknesses in the Cretaceous-Cenozoic bedrock stratigraphy to rupture to the surface. This largely accounts for the strong variability on the strike and dip of the Leader Fault, as the geometry of the surface ruptures tend to reflect the strike and dip of the geological strata which it is rupturing through. The Leader Fault may also accommodate some degree of flexural slip in the Cenozoic cover sequence of the Mendip Syncline, contributing to the ongoing growth of the fold. The similarity between topography and uplift profiles from the 2016 earthquake suggest that growth of the Mount Stewart Range has been primarily driven by multiple (>500) discrete earthquakes that rupture The Humps and Leader faults. The spatial distribution of surface displacements across the Mount Stewart Range is more symmetrical than would be expected if uplift is driven primarily by The Humps and Leader faults alone. Elastic dislocation forward models were used to model potential sub-surface geometries and the resulting patterns of deformation compared to photogrammetry-derived surface displacements. Results show a slight preference for models with a steeply southeast-dipping blind fault, coincident with a zone of seismicity at depth, as a ‘backthrust’ to The Humps and Leader faults. This inferred Mount Stewart Fault accommodated contractional strain during the 2016 earthquake and contributes to the ongoing uplift of the Mount Stewart Range with a component of folding. Right-lateral and reverse shear stress change on the Hope Fault was also modelled using Coulomb 3.3 software to examine whether slip on The Humps and Leader faults could transfer enough stress onto the Hope Fault to trigger through-going rupture. Results indicate that during the 2016 earthquake right-lateral shear and reverse stress only increased on the Hope Fault in small areas to the west of the Leader Fault, and similar ruptures would be unlikely to trigger eastward propagating rupture unless the Hope Fault was close to failure prior to the earthquake. Paleoseismic trenches were excavated on the Leader Fault at four locations from 2018 to 2020, revealing near surface (< 4m depth) contractional deformation of Holocene stratigraphy. Three of the trench locations uncovered clear evidence for rupture of the Leader Fault prior to 2016, with fault displacement of near surface stratigraphy being greater than displacement recorded during the 2016 earthquake. Radiocarbon dating of in-situ organic material from two trenches indicate a date of the penultimate earthquake on the Leader Fault within the past 1000 years. This date is consistent with The Humps and Leader faults having ruptured simultaneously in the past, and with multi-fault ruptures involving The Humps, Leader, Hundalee and Stone Jug faults having occurred prior to the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake. Overall, the results contribute to an improved understanding of the Kaikōura earthquake and highlight the importance of detailed structural and paleoseismic investigations in determining controls on earthquake ‘complexity’.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The aftermath of three earthquakes has forced Christchurch to re-plan and rebuild. New perspectives of a sustainable city have arisen granting Christchurch the chance of becoming an example to the world. This work is centred on bioclimatic landscape design as a base for greening strategies. It deals with strategic landscape design adapted to a specific climate, from a user’s perspective. The investigation will be applied to Christchurch’s urban centres, assessing cultural adaptability to the local climate and implications for landscape design. Climatic data shows that humidity is not a local problem. However, the wind is the determinant. In Christchurch the solar radiation and the prevailing winds are the most important microclimatic variables, the latter intensifying the loss of surface heat, decreasing the radiant temperature and affecting thermal sensation. The research objective is to explore design parameters at the street-scale and identify ways to maximise thermal comfort in outdoor spaces through design-based strategies. The investigation will apply methods of participant observation, depth interviews, climatic data collection and design experimentation based on thermal comfort models and computer simulation tools. Case study sites chosen for investigation are places with current levels of activity that may be anticipated in the rebuild of the central city. The research will have two main outcomes: improved understanding of local urban culture adaptation to microclimate, and a demonstration of how design can enhance adaption. These outcomes will inform designers and city managers about good design practices and strategies that can be used to ensure a long term liveable city.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Maurice and I tells the surprisingly moving story of two of the most successful architects in New Zealand - Sir Miles Warren and Maurice Mahoney - their life, their times, and their struggle to save their most famous building after the 2011 Christchurch earthquake.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

The standard way in which disaster damages are measured involves examining separately the number of fatalities, of injuries, of people otherwise affected, and the financial damage that natural disasters cause. Here, we implement a novel way to aggregate these separate measures of disaster impact and apply it to two recent catastrophic events: the Christchurch (New Zealand) earthquakes and the Greater Bangkok (Thailand) floods of 2011. This new measure, which is similar to the World Health Organization’s calculation of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost from the burden of diseases and injuries, is described in detail in Noy (2014). It allows us to conclude that New Zealand lost 180 thousand lifeyears as a result of the 2011 events, and Thailand lost 2,644 thousand years. In per capita terms, the loss is similar, with both countries losing about 15 days per person due to the 2011 catastrophic events in these two countries. We also compare these events to other potentially similar events.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We examine the role of business interruption insurance in business recovery following the Christchurch earthquake in 2011 in the short- and medium-term. In the short-term analysis, we ask whether insurance increases the likelihood of business survival in the aftermath of a disaster. We find only weak evidence that those firms that had incurred damage, but were covered by business interruption insurance, had higher likelihood of survival post-quake compared with those firms that did not have insurance. This absence of evidence may reflect the high degree of uncertainty in the months following the 2011 earthquake and the multiplicity of severe aftershocks. For the medium-term, our results show a more explicit role for insurance in the aftermath of a disaster. Firms with business interruption insurance have a higher probability of increasing productivity and improved performance following a catastrophe. Furthermore, our results show that those organisations that receive prompt and full payments of their claims have a better recovery, in terms of profitability and a subjective ‘”better off” measure’ than those that had protracted or inadequate claim payments (less than 80% of the claim paid within 2.5 years). Interestingly, the latter group does worse than those organisations that had damage but no insurance coverage. This analysis strongly indicates the importance not only of good insurance coverage, but of an insurance system that also delivers prompt claim payments. As a first paper attempting to empirically identify a causal effect of insurance on business recovery, we also emphasize some caveats to our analysis.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Earthquakes are insured only with public sector involvement in high-income countries where the risk of earthquakes is perceived to be high. The proto-typical examples of this public sector involvement are the public earthquake insurance schemes in California, Japan, and New Zealand (NZ). Each of these insurance programs is structured differently, and the purpose of this paper is to examine these differences using a concrete case-study, the sequence of earthquakes that occurred in the Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2011. This event turned out to have been the most heavily insured earthquake event in history. We examine what would have been the outcome of the earthquakes had the system of insurance in NZ been different. In particular, we focus on the public earthquake insurance programs in California (the California Earthquake Authority - CEA), and in Japan (Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance - JER). Overall, the aggregate cost to the public insurer in NZ was $NZ 11.1 billion in its response to the earthquakes. If a similar-sized disaster event had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received $NZ 2.5 billion and $NZ 1.4 billion from the JER and CEA, respectively. We further describe the spatial and distributive patterns of these different scenarios.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We measure the longer-term effect of a major earthquake on the local economy, using night-time light intensity measured from space, and investigate whether insurance claim payments for damaged residential property affected the local recovery process. We focus on the destructive Christchurch earthquake of 2011 as our case study. In this event more than 95% of residential housing units were covered by insurance, but insurance payments were staggered over 5 years, enabling us to identify their local impact. We find that night-time luminosity can capture the process of recovery and describe the recovery’s determinants. We also find that insurance payments contributed significantly to the process of economic recovery after the earthquake, but delayed payments were less affective and cash settlement of claims were more affective in contributing to local recovery than insurance-managed rebuilding.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We estimate the causal effects of a large unanticipated natural disaster on high schoolers’ university enrolment decisions and subsequent medium-term labour market outcomes. Using national administrative data after a destructive earthquake in New Zealand, we estimate that the disaster raises tertiary education enrolment of recent high school graduates by 6.1 percentage points. The effects are most pronounced for males, students who are academically weak relative to their peers, and students from schools directly damaged by the disaster. As relatively low ability males are overrepresented in sectors of the labour market helped by the earthquake, greater demand for university may stem from permanent changes in deeper behavioural parameters such as risk aversion or time preference, rather than as a coping response to poor economic opportunities.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

This paper begins with a discussion of the history of negligent manslaughter in New Zealand and its development from the standard of ordinary negligence to the current test of a “major departure” from the expected standard of care, as set out under s 150A of the Crimes Act 1961. The paper then examines failings in s 150A’s current application, arguing that the “major departure” test has created injustices due to its strictly objective nature. Two examples of this are discussed in-depth, Bawa-Garba v R (UK) where a doctor was convicted of grossly negligent manslaughter for the death of her patient; and the decision not to prosecute the negligent engineers of the CTV building which collapsed in the Christchurch earthquake of 2011. The paper discusses three potential resolutions moving forward. It concludes that a more subjective interpretation of the wording of s 150A, which takes account of circumstances excusing or condemning a defendant’s conduct, would prevent future injustices and be a reasonably open interpretation on the wording of s 150A.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

<strong>Sea level rise is one consequence of Earth’s changing climate. Century-long tide gauge records show that global-mean sea-level rise reached 11-16 cm during the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.2 mm/y. Today, the average rate of global-mean sea-level rise is higher at 3-4 mm/y and is expected to increase in the future. This represents a hazard to low elevation coastal zones worldwide. Yet, before global sea level projections can be used to characterise future coastal flood hazard at a local scale, the effects of tectonics (and other processes) that drive vertical land motion (VLM) must be considered. VLM is defined as the vertical velocity (uplift or subsidence) of the solid surface with respect to the centre of Earth. In this study, new VLM maps are generated over coastal strips in New Zealand, using Sentinel-1 InSAR and GNSS data.</strong>In New Zealand, measuring VLM using InSAR on naturally vegetated or agricultural land is difficult due to signal decorrelation. Along the rural Bay of Plenty coastal strip, I use a persistent-scatterer approach to generate a VLM map from both east-looking ascending and west-looking descending Sentinel-1 data between 2015-2021. Using time-series data over the same time period from a dense network of 20 GNSS sensors, I tie InSAR-derived line-of-sight velocity to the 2014 ITRF reference frame. I test two different methods for measuring VLM and compare the results against GNSS vertical velocity along the Bay of Plenty coast. Best results are achieved by first removing the interpolated horizontal GNSS velocity field from each of the InSAR datasets, before averaging the two VLM estimates. Measured VLM is between -3 and 3 mm/y, with negative values (subsidence) occurring within the low-lying Rangitāiki Plain and Ōpōtiki valley, and uplift across the elevated region west of Matatā.This thesis integrates geomorphological, geological, and historical levelling VLM records with modern satellite datasets to assess VLM across timescales ranging from 10 to 100,000 years at Matatā. Uplift rate has been variable through time, with average uplift over the last 300,000 years of 1 mm/y, 4.5 mm/y since 1720 years, 2 mm/y between 1950-1978, and 10 mm/y between 2004-2011. Previous modelling has shown that the best fit to the 2004-2011 rapid uplift rates is an inflating magmatic source at ~10 km depth beneath Matatā. To reconcile all data, I present a VLM model that consists of short-lived periods (7 years) of rapid uplift (10 mm/y), separated by longer periods (30 years) of lower background uplift (3 mm/y). The episodic nature of VLM at Matatā likely reflects short-lived periods of magmatic intrusion. Episodic VLM characterised by large rates of uplift (10 mm/y) has been seen at Taupō volcano, and other volcanic centers globally. It has been 12 years since the end of the last intrusion episode; this modelling suggest one may expect to observe increased uplift rates at Matatā in the coming decades. Densely populated urban coastal strips are most at risk from the effects of relative sea-level rise. At the same time, anthropogenic activities associated with urbanization, such as groundwater withdrawal, and land reclamation can lead to local land subsidence (LLS), further exacerbating the risk to urban infrastructure. LLS refers to subsidence relative to nearby land area assumed to be stable. In this thesis, I create the first high-resolution (10 m) maps of LLS at six urban coastal strips in New Zealand, with a combined length of 285 km, using Sentinel-1 InSAR data between 2018-2021. This analysis reveals 89% of urban coastal strips are subsiding at rates of -0.5 mm/y or greater, and 11% is subsiding at higher rates of -3.0 mm/y or greater. On average, subsidence is -0.6 to -2.9 mm/y higher at the coastal strip, compared to inland areas occupied by GNSS stations. This analysis also documents highly-localised hotspots of LLS, with subsidence rates of up to -15 mm/y. In Christchurch, rapid and localised subsidence (-8 mm/y) is observed within coastal suburbs New Brighton and Southshore. In most cities, the highest subsidence rates occur on land reclaimed in the early-late twentieth century, and in areas built on Holocene sediment. Time-series analysis of LLS at sites of reclaimed land shows both linear and non-linear rates of deformation over time periods of up to 6-8 years. This thesis highlights the variable exposure to relative sea-level rise of New Zealand coastal strips, and demonstrates that in many cases current rates of VLM should be expected to continue for the next few decades.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

<strong>Natural disasters are often unpredictable and are happening frequently. Some natural disasters cause damage to communities, resulting in displaced individuals. Due to this there is a need for shelter, however, there are many unknown factors. These include unknown demographics, a strain on time, cost, and resources, and the unknown location. This study begins by identifying a lack of identity and personality in existing post-disaster shelter designs, including the example of Linwood Park from the Christchurch 2011 earthquake. Further research shows the lack of personalisation within shelters, along with addressing key requirements needed for shelters. While providing the basic needs is essential, this thesis also addresses how personalisation can impact a space. Taking bach architecture as a driver for a basic, yet unique approach to temporary accommodation, Lake Clearwater Settlement was used as a case study. Through surveys, interviews, and a reflective design process, the importance of embracing identity emerges as a key element in fostering dignity, livelihood, and a sense of self in displaced individuals.</strong>This thesis explores innovative approaches to post-disaster shelter design with a focus on accommodating the unique needs and individuality of displaced individuals. From challenging conventional shelter concepts to embracing self-design and community involvement, the research addresses the question of how interior and exterior features can cater to the diverse requirements of those affected by natural disasters.