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Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

There has not been substantial research conducted in the area of fraud and natural disasters. Therefore, this study sought to examine the perceptions of Canterbury residents toward the recovery process following the September 2010 and February 2011 earthquakes and whether residents felt as though contractor fraud occurs in Canterbury. A questionnaire was developed to gauge information about Canterbury residents’ self-reports involving the earthquakes, specific contractors involved, parties involved with the recovery process in general, and demographic information. Participants included a total of 213 residents from the Canterbury region who had been involved with contractors and/or insurance companies due to the recovery process. Results indicated that a high percentage of the participants were not satisfied with the recovery process and that almost half of the participants reported feeling scammed by contractors in Canterbury after the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes. Moreover, the results indicate that participants neither agreed with the assessments made about their property losses nor the plans made to recover their properties. In many cases, participants felt pressured and even reluctant to accept these assessments and/or plans. The present study does not seek to explain why contractor fraud exists or what motivates scammers. Conversely, it attempts to demonstrate the perceptions of contractor fraud and satisfaction that have taken place in the aftermath of the Canterbury earthquakes.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

As a global phenomenon, many cities are undergoing urban renewal to accommodate rapid growth in urban population. However, urban renewal can struggle to balance social, economic, and environmental outcomes, whereby economic outcomes are often primarily considered by developers. This has important implications for urban forests, which have previously been shown to be negatively affected by development activities. Urban forests serve the purpose of providing ecosystem services and thus are beneficial to human wellbeing. Better understanding the effect of urban renewal on city trees may help improve urban forest outcomes via effective management and policy strategies, thereby maximising ecosystem service provision and human wellbeing. Though the relationship between certain aspects of development and urban forests has received consideration in previous literature, little research has focused on how the complete property redevelopment cycle affects urban forest dynamics over time. This research provides an opportunity to gain a comprehensive understanding of the effect of residential property redevelopment on urban forest dynamics, at a range of spatial scales, in Christchurch, New Zealand following a series of major earthquakes which occurred in 2010 – 2011. One consequence of the earthquakes is the redevelopment of thousands of properties over a relatively short time-frame. The research quantifies changes in canopy cover city-wide, as well as, tree removal, retention, and planting on individual residential properties. Moreover, the research identifies the underlying reasons for these dynamics, by exploring the roles of socio-economic and demographic factors, the spatial relationships between trees and other infrastructure, and finally, the attitudes of residential property owners. To quantify the effect of property redevelopment on canopy cover change in Christchurch, this research delineated tree canopy cover city-wide in 2011 and again in 2015. An object-based image analysis (OBIA) technique was applied to aerial imagery and LiDAR data acquired at both time steps, in order to estimate city-wide canopy cover for 2011 and 2015. Changes in tree canopy cover between 2011 and 2015 were then spatially quantified. Tree canopy cover change was also calculated for all meshblocks (a relatively fine-scale geographic boundary) in Christchurch. The results show a relatively small magnitude of tree canopy cover loss, city-wide, from 10.8% to 10.3% between 2011 and 2015, but a statistically significant change in mean tree canopy cover across all the meshblocks. Tree canopy cover losses were more likely to occur in meshblocks containing properties that underwent a complete redevelopment cycle, but the loss was insensitive to the density of redevelopment within meshblocks. To explore property-scale individual tree dynamics, a mixed-methods approach was used, combining questionnaire data and remote sensing analysis. A mail-based questionnaire was delivered to residential properties to collect resident and household data; 450 residential properties (321 redeveloped, 129 non- redeveloped) returned valid questionnaires and were identified as analysis subjects. Subsequently, 2,422 tree removals and 4,544 tree retentions were identified within the 450 properties; this was done by manually delineating individual tree crowns, based on aerial imagery and LiDAR data, and visually comparing the presence or absence of these trees between 2011 and 2015. The tree removal rate on redeveloped properties (44.0%) was over three times greater than on non-redeveloped properties (13.5%) and the average canopy cover loss on redeveloped properties (52.2%) was significantly greater than on non-redeveloped properties (18.8%). A classification tree (CT) analysis was used to model individual tree dynamics (i.e. tree removal, tree retention) and candidate explanatory variables (i.e. resident and household, economic, land cover, and spatial variables). The results indicate that the model including land cover, spatial, and economic variables had the best predicting ability for individual tree dynamics (accuracy = 73.4%). Relatively small trees were more likely to be removed, while trees with large crowns were more likely to be retained. Trees were most likely to be removed from redeveloped properties with capital values lower than NZ$1,060,000 if they were within 1.4 m of the boundary of a redeveloped building. Conversely, trees were most likely to be retained if they were on a property that was not redeveloped. The analysis suggested that the resident and household factors included as potential explanatory variables did not influence tree removal or retention. To conduct a further exploration of the relationship between resident attitudes and actions towards trees on redeveloped versus non-redeveloped properties, this research also asked the landowners from the 450 properties that returned mail questionnaires to indicate their attitudes towards tree management (i.e. tree removal, tree retention, and tree planting) on their properties. The results show that residents from redeveloped properties were more likely to remove and/or plant trees, while residents from non- redeveloped properties were more likely to retain existing trees. A principal component analysis (PCA) was used to explore resident attitudes towards tree management. The results of the PCA show that residents identified ecosystem disservices (e.g. leaf litter, root damage to infrastructure) as common reasons for tree removal; however, they also noted ecosystem services as important reasons for both tree planting and tree retention on their properties. Moreover, the reasons for tree removal and tree planting varied based on whether residents’ property had been redeveloped. Most tree removal occurred on redeveloped properties because trees were in conflict with redevelopment, but occurred on non- redeveloped properties because of perceived poor tree health. Residents from redeveloped properties were more likely to plant trees due to being aesthetically pleasing or to replace trees removed during redevelopment. Overall, this research adds to, and complements, the existing literature on the effects of residential property redevelopment on urban forest dynamics. The findings of this research provide empirical support for developing specific legislation or policies about urban forest management during residential property redevelopment. The results also imply that urban foresters should enhance public education on the ecosystem services provided by urban forests and thus minimise the potential for tree removal when undertaking property redevelopment.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

We examined changes in psychological distress experienced by residents of Christchurch following two catastrophic earthquakes in late 2010 and early 2011, using data from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (NZAVS), a national probability panel study of New Zealand adults. Analyses focused on the 267 participants (172 women, 95 men) who were living in central Christchurch in 2009 (i.e., before the Christchurch earthquakes), and who also provided complete responses to our yearly panel questionnaire conducted in late 2010 (largely between the two major earthquakes), late 2011, and late 2012. Levels of psychological distress were similar across the different regions of central Christchurch immediately following the September 2010 earthquake, and remained comparable across regions in 2011. By late 2012, however, average levels of psychological distress in the regions had diverged as a function of the amount of property damage experienced within each given region. Specifically, participants in the least damaged region (i.e., the Fendalton-Waimairi and Riccarton-Wigram wards) experienced greater drops in psychological distress than did those in the moderately damaged region (i.e., across the Spreydon-Heathcote and Hagley- Ferrymead wards). However, the level of psychological distress reported by participants in the most damaged region (i.e., across Shirley-Papanui and Burwood-Pegasus) were not significantly different to those in the least damaged region of central Christchurch. These findings suggest that different patterns of psychological recovery emerged across the different regions of Christchurch, with the moderately damaged region faring the worst, but only after the initial shock of the destruction had passed.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This research attempts to understand whether community resilience and perceived livability are influenced by housing typologies in Christchurch, New Zealand. Using recent resident surveys undertaken by the Christchurch City Council, two indexes were created to reflect livability and community resilience. Indicators used to create both indexes included (1) enjoyment living in neighbourhood (2) satisfaction with local facilities (3) safety walking and (4) safety using public transport, (5) sense of community (6) neighbour interactions, (7) home ownership and (8) civic engagement. Scores were attributed to 72 neighbourhoods across Christchurch –and each neighbourhood was classified in one of the following housing typologies; (1) earthquake damaged, (2) relatively undamaged, (3) medium density and (4) greenfield developments. Spatial analysis of index scores and housing classifications suggest housing typologies do influence resident’s perceived livability and community bonds to an extent. It was found that deprivation also had a considerable influence on these indexes as well as residential stability. These additional influences help explain why neighbourhoods within the same housing classification differ in their index scores. Based on these results, several recommendations have been made to the CCC in relation to future research, urban development strategies and suburb specific renewal projects. Of chief importance, medium density neighbourhoods and deprived neighbourhoods require conscious efforts to foster community resilience. Results indicate that community resilience might be more important than livability in having a positive influence on the lived experience of residents. While thoughtful design and planning are important, this research suggests geospatial research tools could enable better community engagement outcomes and planning outcomes, and this could be interwoven into proactive and inclusive planning approaches like placemaking.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The 2010 and 2011 earthquakes in the region of Canterbury, New Zealand caused widespread damage and the deaths of 185 people. Suburbs on the eastern side of Christchurch and in the satellite town of Kaiapoi, 20 kilometres north of Christchurch, were badly damaged by liquefaction. The Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA), a government organisation set up in the wake of the earthquakes, began to systematically zone all residential land in 2011. Based on the possibility for land remediation, 7860 houses in Christchurch and Kaiapoi were zoned red. Those who were in this zone were compensated and had to buy or build elsewhere. The other zone examined within this research – that of TC3 – lies within the green zone. Residents, in this zone, were able to stay in their houses but land was moderately damaged and required site-specific geotechnical investigations. This research sought to understand how residents’ senses of home were impacted by a disaster and the response efforts. Focusing on the TC3 and red zone of the eastern suburbs and the satellite town of Kaiapoi, this study interviewed 29 residents within these zones. The concept of home was explored with the respondents at three scales: home as a household; home as a community; and home as a city. There was a large amount of resistance to the zoning process and the handling of claims by insurance companies and the Earthquake Commission (EQC) after the earthquakes. Lack of transparency and communication, as well as extremely slow timelines were all documented as failings of these agencies. This research seeks to understand how participant’s sense of home changed on an individual level and how it was impacted by outside agencies. Homemaking techniques were also focused on showing that a changed sense of home will impact on how a person interacts with a space.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This study followed two similarly affected, but socio-economically disparate suburbs as residents responded to and attempted to recover from the devastating 6.3 magnitude earthquake that struck Christchurch, New Zealand, on February 22, 2011. More specifically, it focuses on the role of local churches, community-based organisations (CBOs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), here referred to broadly as civil society, in meeting the immediate needs of local residents and assisting with the longer-term recovery of each neighbourhood. Despite considerable socioeconomic differences between the two neighbourhoods, civil society in both suburbs has been vital in addressing the needs of locals in the short and long term following the earthquake. Institutions were able to utilise local knowledge of both residents and the extent of damage in the area to a) provide a swifter local response than government or civil defence and then help direct the relief these agencies provided locally; b) set up central points for distribution of supplies and information where locals would naturally gather; c) take action on what were perceived to be unmet needs; and d) act as a way of bridging locals to a variety of material, informational, and emotional resources. However the findings also support literature which indicates that other factors are also important in understanding neighbourhood recovery and the role of civil society, including: local leadership; a shared, place-based identity; the type and form of civil society organizations; social capital; and neighbourhood- and household-level indicators of relative vulnerability and inequality. The intertwining of these various factors seems to influence how these neighbourhoods have coped with and taken steps in recovering from this disaster. It is recommended that future research be directed at developing a better understanding of how this occurs. It is suggested that a model similar to Yasui’s (2007) Community Vulnerability and Capacity model be developed as a useful way to approach future research in this area.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This research attempts to understand how the Christchurch rebuild is promoting urban liveability in the Central City, focussing on the influence of communities and neighbourhoods in this area. To do this, gathering the perceptions of Christchurch residents through surveys, a focus group and semi-structured interviews was carried out to see what aspects they believe contribute to creating more liveable places. These methods revealed that there are pockets of neighbourhoods and communities in the inner-city, but no overall sense of community. Results from the semi-structured interviews reinforced this; the current buyers of inner-city property are in the financial position to be able to do this, and they seem to be purchasing in this area due to convenience and investment rather than to join the existing communities in the area. Analysing the survey responses from Central City residents revealed contrasting results. Those currently living in the area felt there is a sense of community in the inner-city, but these are found in pockets of neighbourhoods around the Central City rather than in the overall area. The focus group revealed that community is further prioritised later in life, and that many of the community groups in the inner-city predominantly consist of those who have lived there since before the Christchurch Earthquake Series. However, participants of all three methods believed that the Central City is slowly becoming a lively and vibrant place. To improve urban liveability in the inner-city, it seems that prioritisation of the needs of current inner-city residents is required. Improving these neighbourhoods, whether it be through the implementation of services or providing more communal spaces, is needed to create stronger communities. The feelings of place, connectedness, and belonging that arise from being part of a community or well-connected neighbourhood can improve mental health and wellbeing, ultimately enhancing the overall health of the population as well as the perceived urban liveability of the area.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Research on responses to trauma has historically focused on the negative repercussions of a struggle with adversity. However, more recently, researchers have begun to examine posttraumatic growth: the positive psychological change that emerges from the struggle with a potentially traumatic event. Associations have been found between posttraumatic growth and greater peritraumatic distress, greater objective severity of trauma exposure, greater perceived stressfulness of events, social support, female gender, cognitive and behavioural responses to trauma, and personality measures. Posttraumatic growth has been measured typically in individuals with varying levels of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms and other psychological difficulties, such as depression and anxiety. Although some theory and research posits that higher resilience would prohibit posttraumatic growth, no studies have examined posttraumatic growth in a resilient sample. The Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010 and 2011 involved potentially traumatic events that saw the community struggle with a variety of challenges. However, in the midst of earthquake destruction, some positive initiatives emerged, driven by locals. The Gap Filler project (using city spaces left empty from fallen buildings for art and interactive community projects) and the Student Volunteer Army (groups of volunteers coordinated to help others in need) are examples of this. In this context, it seemed likely that posttraumatic growth was occurring and might be seen in individuals who were coping well with challenges. Culture is theorised to influence the posttraumatic growth process (Calhoun, Cann, & Tedeschi, 2010), and the nature of the trauma undergone is also likely to influence the process of growth. The current thesis measures posttraumatic growth quantitatively and qualitatively in a New Zealand sample. It measures and describes posttraumatic growth in a resilient population after the earthquake sequence of 2010 and 2011 in Canterbury, New Zealand. Findings are used to test current models of posttraumatic growth for individuals coping well after trauma and to elaborate on mechanisms proposed by models such as the comprehensive model of posttraumatic growth (Calhoun et al., 2010) and the organismic valuing theory of growth through adversity (Joseph & Linley, 2005). Correlates of posttraumatic growth are examined and likely supporting factors of posttraumatic growth are identified for this population. Study 1 used quantitative analysis to explore correlates of posttraumatic growth and found that greater posttraumatic growth related to greater peritraumatic distress, greater perceived stressfulness of earthquake events, greater objective stressfulness of earthquake events, greater difficulty with stressful life events, less satisfaction with social support, and female gender. Findings from Study 1 give important detail about the nature of distress included in the comprehensive model of posttraumatic growth (Calhoun et al., 2010) for this population. Levels of posttraumatic growth were lower than those in North American studies but similar to those in a Chinese study. The current sample, however, showed lower endorsement of Relating to Others than the Chinese study, perhaps because of cultural differences. Study 2 used qualitative analysis to examine the experience of posttraumatic growth in the sample. The theme of ‘a greater sense of community’ was found and adds to the comprehensive model of posttraumatic growth, in that an expression of posttraumatic growth (a greater connection with others) can inform ongoing social processing in the posttraumatic growth process. Having a formal or informal role in earthquake recovery appeared to influence self-concept and reflection; this elaborates on the influence of role on reflection in Calhoun et al.’s model. Findings illustrate possible mechanisms of the organismic valuing process theorised by Joseph and Linley (2005). Implications include the importance of providing opportunities for individuals to take on a role after a crisis, encouraging them to act to respond to difficulties, and encouraging them to meet personal needs for relatedness, competence, and autonomy. Finding positive aspects to a difficult situation, as well as acknowledging adversity, can be supported in future to help individuals process their traumas. As a society, we can help individuals cope with adversity by providing ways they can meet their needs for relatedness, competence, and autonomy. Community groups likely provide opportunities for members to act in ways that meet such needs. This will allow them to effectively act to meet their needs in times of crisis.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Cities need places that contribute to quality of life, places that support social interaction. Wellbeing, specifically, community wellbeing, is influenced by where people live, the quality of place is important and who they connect with socially. Social interaction and connection can come from the routine involvement with others, the behavioural acts of seeing and being with others. This research consisted of 38 interviews of residents of Christchurch, New Zealand, in the years following the 2010-12 earthquakes. Residents were asked about the place they lived and their interactions within their community. The aim was to examine the role of neighbourhood in contributing to local social connections and networks that contribute to living well. Specifically, it focused on the role and importance of social infrastructure in facilitating less formal social interactions in local neighbourhoods. It found that neighbourhood gathering places and bumping spaces can provide benefit for living well. Social infrastructure, like libraries, parks, primary schools, and pubs are some of the places of neighbourhood that contributed to how well people can encounter others for social interaction. In addition, unplanned interactions were facilitated by the existence of bumping places, such as street furniture. The wellbeing value of such spaces needs to be acknowledged and factored into planning decisions, and local rules and regulations need to allow the development of such spaces.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquakes brought devastation to the city of Christchurch and has irrevocably affected the lives of the city’s residents. Years after the conclusion of these earthquakes, Christchurch and its residents are well on the path to recovery. Crime has proven an ongoing topic of discussion throughout this period, with news reports of increased burglary and arson in areas left largely abandoned by earthquake damage, and a rise in violent crime in suburban areas of Christchurch. Following the body of research that has considered the reaction of crime to natural disasters, this research has sought to comprehensively examine and understand the effects that the Canterbury Earthquakes had on crime. Examining Christchurch-wide offending, crime rates fell over the study period (July 2008 to June 2013), with the exception of domestic violence. Aside from a momentary increase in burglary in the days immediately following the Christchurch Earthquake, crime rates (as of 2013) have remained largely below pre-earthquake levels. Using Dual Kernel Density Estimation Analysis, a distinct spatial change in pre-earthquake crime hotspots was observed. These changes included an enormous decrease in central city offences, a rise in burglary in the eastern suburbs, and an increase in assault in areas outside of the central city. Logistic regression analysis, using a time-compensated dependent variable, identified a number of statistically-significant relationships between per CAU crime rate change and factors measuring socio-demographic characteristics, community cohesion, and the severity of disaster effects. The significance of these findings was discussed using elements of Social Disorganisation Theory, Routine Activity Theory, and Strain Theory. Consistent with past findings, social order was largely maintained following the Canterbury Earthquakes, with suggestion that increased collective efficacy and therapeutic communities had a negative influence on crime in the post-earthquake period. Areas of increased burglary and assault were associated with large population decreases, suggesting a link with the dissolution of communities and the removal of their inherent informal guardianship. Though observed, the increase in domestic violence was not associated with most neighbourhood-level variables. Trends in crime after the Canterbury Earthquakes were largely consistent with past research, and the media’s portrayal.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The 14 November 2016 Kaikōura earthquake had major impacts on New Zealand's transport system. Road, rail and port infrastructure was damaged, creating substantial disruption for transport operators, residents, tourists, and business owners in the Canterbury, Marlborough and Wellington regions, with knock-on consequences elsewhere. During both the response and recovery phases, a large amount of information and data relating to the transport system was generated, managed, analysed, and exchanged within and between organisations to assist decision making. To improve information and data exchanges and related decision making in the transport sector during future events and guide new resilience strategies, we present key findings from a recent post-earthquake assessment. The research involved 35 different stakeholder groups and was conducted for the Ministry of Transport. We consider what transport information was available, its usefulness, where it was sourced from, mechanisms for data transfer between organisations, and suggested approaches for continued monitoring.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Context of the project: On 4 September 2010, 22 February 2011, 13 June 2011 and 23 December 2011 Christchurch suffered major earthquakes and aftershocks (well over 10,000) that have left the central city in ruins and many of the eastern suburbs barely habitable even now. The earthquakes on 22 February caused catastrophic loss of life with 185 people killed. The toll this has taken on the residents of Christchurch has been considerable, not least of all for the significant psychological impact and disruption it has had on the children. As the process of rebuilding the city commenced, it became clear that the arts would play a key role in maintaining our quality of life during difficult times. For me, this started with the children and the most expressive of all the art forms – music.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Smart cities utilise new and innovative technology to improve the function of the city for governments, citizens and businesses. This thesis offers an in-depth discussion on the concept of the smart city and sets the context of smart cities internationally. It also examines how to improve a smart city through public engagement, as well as, how to implement participatory research in a smart city project to improve the level of engagement of citizens in the planning and implementation of smart projects. This thesis shows how to incentivise behaviour change with smart city technology and projects, through increasing participation in the planning and implementation of smart technology in a city. Meaningful data is created through this process of participation for citizens in the city, by engaging the citizens in the creation of the data, therefore the information created through a smart city project is created by and for the citizens themselves. To improve engagement, a city must understand its specific context and its residents. Using Christchurch, New Zealand, and the Christchurch City Council (CCC) Smart City Project as a case study, this research engages CCC stakeholders in the Smart City Project through a series of interviews, and citizens in Christchurch through a survey and focus groups. A thorough literature review has been conducted, to illuminate the different definitions of the smart city in academia, business and governments respectively, and how these definitions vary from one another. It provides details of a carefully selected set of relevant smart cities internationally and will discuss how the Christchurch Earthquake Sequence of 2010 and 2011 has affected the CCC Smart City Project. The research process, alongside the literature review, shows diverse groups of citizens in the city should be acknowledged in this process. The concept of the smart city is redefined to incorporate the context of Christchurch, its citizens and communities. Community perceptions of smart cities in Christchurch consider the post-disaster environment and this event and subsequent rebuild process should be a focus of the smart city project. The research identified that the CCC needs to focus on participatory approaches in the planning and implementation of smart projects, and community organisations in Christchurch offer an opportunity to understand community perspectives on new smart technology and that projects internationally should consider how the context of the city will affect the participation of its residents. This project offers ideas to influence the behaviour change of citizens through a smart city project. Further research should consider other stakeholders, for instance, innovation and technology-focused business in the city, and to fully engage citizens, future research must continue the process of participatory engagement, and target diverse groups in the city, including but not limited to minority groups, older and younger generations, and those with physical and mental disabilities.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Disaster recovery is significantly affected by funding availability. The timeliness and quality of recovery activities are not only impacted by the extent of the funding but also the mechanisms with which funding is prioritised, allocated and delivered. This research addresses the impact of funding mechanisms on the effectiveness and efficiency of post-disaster demolition and debris management programmes. A qualitative assessment of the impacts on recovery of different funding sources and mechanisms was carried out, using the 2010 Canterbury Earthquake as well as other recent international events as case studies. The impacts assessed include: timeliness, completeness, environmental, economic and social impacts. Of the case studies investigated, the Canterbury Earthquake was the only disaster response to rely solely on a privatised approach to insurance for debris management. Due to the low level of resident displacement and low level of hazard in the waste, this was a satisfactory approach, though not ideal. This approach has led to greater organisational complexity and delays. For many other events, the potential community wide impacts caused by the prolonged presence of disaster debris means that publicly funded and centrally facilitated programmes appear to be the most common and effective method of managing disaster waste.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This research examines a surprising partner in emergency management - a local community time bank. Specifically, we explain the role of the Lyttelton Time Bank in promoting community resiliency following the Canterbury earthquakes in 2010 and 2011. A time bank is a grassroots exchange system in which members trade services non-reciprocally. This exchange model assumes that everyone has tradable skills and all labour is equal in value. One hour of any labour earns a member one time bank hour, which can be used to purchase another member’s services. Before the earthquakes struck, the Lyttelton Time Bank (TB) had organised over 10% of the town’s residents and 18 local organisations. It was documenting, developing, and mobilising skills to solve individual and collective problems. This report examines the Lyttelton Time Bank and its’ role before, during, and after the earthquakes based on the analysis of over three and a half years of fieldwork, observations, interviews, focus groups, trading activity, and secondary data.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Natural hazard disasters often have large area-wide impacts, which can cause adverse stress-related mental health outcomes in exposed populations. As a result, increased treatment-seeking may be observed, which puts a strain on the limited public health care resources particularly in the aftermath of a disaster. It is therefore important for public health care planners to know whom to target, but also where and when to initiate intervention programs that promote emotional wellbeing and prevent the development of mental disorders after catastrophic events. A large body of literature assesses factors that predict and mitigate disaster-related mental disorders at various time periods, but the spatial component has rarely been investigated in disaster mental health research. This thesis uses spatial and spatio-temporal analysis techniques to examine when and where higher and lower than expected mood and anxiety symptom treatments occurred in the severely affected Christchurch urban area (New Zealand) after the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes. High-risk groups are identified and a possible relationship between exposure to the earthquakes and their physical impacts and mood and anxiety symptom treatments is assessed. The main research aim is to test the hypothesis that more severely affected Christchurch residents were more likely to show mood and anxiety symptoms when seeking treatment than less affected ones, in essence, testing for a dose-response relationship. The data consisted of mood and anxiety symptom treatment information from the New Zealand Ministry of Health’s administrative databases and demographic information from the National Health Index (NHI) register, when combined built a unique and rich source for identifying publically funded stress-related treatments for mood and anxiety symptoms in almost the whole population of the study area. The Christchurch urban area within the Christchurch City Council (CCC) boundary was the area of interest in which spatial variations in these treatments were assessed. Spatial and spatio-temporal analyses were done by applying retrospective space-time and spatial variation in temporal trends analysis using SaTScan™ software, and Bayesian hierarchical modelling techniques for disease mapping using WinBUGS software. The thesis identified an overall earthquake-exposure effect on mood and anxiety symptom treatments among Christchurch residents in the context of the earthquakes as they experienced stronger increases in the risk of being treated especially shortly after the catastrophic 2011 Christchurch earthquake compared to the rest of New Zealand. High-risk groups included females, elderly, children and those with a pre-existing mental illness with elderly and children especially at-risk in the context of the earthquakes. Looking at the spatio-temporal distribution of mood and anxiety symptom treatments in the Christchurch urban area, a high rates cluster ranging from the severely affected central city to the southeast was found post-disaster. Analysing residential exposure to various earthquake impacts found that living in closer proximity to more affected areas was identified as a risk factor for mood and anxiety symptom treatments, which largely confirms a dose-response relationship between level of affectedness and mood and anxiety symptom treatments. However, little changes in the spatial distribution of mood and anxiety symptom treatments occurred in the Christchurch urban area over time indicating that these results may have been biased by pre-existing spatial disparities. Additionally, the post-disaster mobility activity from severely affected eastern to the generally less affected western and northern parts of the city seemed to have played an important role as the strongest increases in treatment rates occurred in less affected northern areas of the city, whereas the severely affected eastern areas tended to show the lowest increases. An investigation into the different effects of mobility confirmed that within-city movers and temporary relocatees were generally more likely to receive care or treatment for mood or anxiety symptoms, but moving within the city was identified as a protective factor over time. In contrast, moving out of the city from minor, moderately or severely damaged plain areas of the city, which are generally less affluent than Port Hills areas, was identified as a risk factor in the second year post-disaster. Moreover, residents from less damaged plain areas of the city showed a decrease in the likelihood of receiving care or treatment for mood or anxiety symptoms compared to those from undamaged plain areas over time, which also contradicts a possible dose-response relationship. Finally, the effects of the social and physical environment, as well as community resilience on mood and anxiety symptom treatments among long-term stayers from Christchurch communities indicate an exacerbation of pre-existing mood and anxiety symptom treatment disparities in the city, whereas exposure to ‘felt’ earthquake intensities did not show a statistically significant effect. The findings of this thesis highlight the complex relationship between different levels of exposure to a severe natural disaster and adverse mental health outcomes in a severely affected region. It is one of the few studies that have access to area-wide health and impact information, are able to do a pre-disaster / post-disaster comparison and track their sample population to apply spatial and spatio-temporal analysis techniques for exposure assessment. Thus, this thesis enhances knowledge about the spatio-temporal distribution of adverse mental health outcomes in the context of a severe natural disaster and informs public health care planners, not only about high-risk groups, but also where and when to target health interventions. The results indicate that such programs should broadly target residents living in more affected areas as they are likely to face daily hardship by living in a disrupted environment and may have already been the most vulnerable ones before the disaster. Special attention should be focussed on women, elderly, children and people with pre-existing mental illnesses as they are most likely to receive care or treatment for stress-related mental health symptoms. Moreover, permanent relocatees from affected areas and temporarily relocatees shortly after the disaster may need special attention as they face additional stressors due to the relocation that may lead to the development of adverse mental health outcomes needing treatment.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Using greater Christchurch as a case study, this research seeks to understand the key drivers of residential choice of families with children who live in recently developed, low-density greenfield subdivisions. In particular, the research examines the role that transport-related implications play in families’ choice of residence and location. It also explores the lived experience of the quotidian travel of these households, and the intrinsic value of their time in the car. While the research is situated in one particular location, it is designed to gain an understanding of urban processes and residents’ experiences of these as applicable to broader settings. Concerns about the pernicious environmental, fiscal, and wellbeing effects of sprawling urban form have been growing over the past few decades, inciting many cities including Christchurch to start shifting planning policies to try and achieve greater intensification and a denser development pattern. The 2010/2011 Christchurch earthquake sequence and its destruction of thousands of homes however created huge pressure for housing development, the bulk of which is now occurring on greenfield sites on the peripheries of Christchurch City and its neighbouring towns. Drawing on the insights provided by a wide body of both qualitative and quantitative literature on residential choice, transport and urban form, and mobilities literature as a basis, this research is interested in the attraction of these growing neighbourhoods to families, and puts the focus firmly on the attitudes, values, motivations, decisions, and lived experience of those who live in the growing suburbs of Christchurch.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand’s South Island induced widespread liquefaction phenomena across the Christchurch urban area on four occasions (4 Sept 2010; 22 Feb; 13 June; 23 Dec 2011), that resulted in widespread ejection of silt and fine sand. This impacted transport networks as well as infiltrated and contaminated the damaged storm water system, making rapid clean-up an immediate post-earthquake priority. In some places the ejecta was contaminated by raw sewage and was readily remobilised in dry windy conditions, creating a long-term health risk to the population. Thousands of residential properties were inundated with liquefaction ejecta, however residents typically lacked the capacity (time or resources) to clean-up without external assistance. The liquefaction silt clean-up response was co-ordinated by the Christchurch City Council and executed by a network of contractors and volunteer groups, including the ‘Farmy-Army’ and the ‘Student-Army’. The duration of clean-up time of residential properties and the road network was approximately 2 months for each of the 3 main liquefaction inducing earthquakes; despite each event producing different volumes of ejecta. Preliminary cost estimates indicate total clean-up costs will be over NZ$25 million. Over 500,000 tonnes of ejecta has been stockpiled at Burwood landfill since the beginning of the Canterbury earthquakes sequence. The liquefaction clean-up experience in Christchurch following the 2010-2011 earthquake sequence has emerged as a valuable case study to support further analysis and research on the coordination, management and costs of large volume deposition of fine grained sediment in urban areas.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The affect that the Christchurch Earthquake Sequence(CES) had on Christchurch residents was severe, and the consequences are still being felt today. The Ōtākaro Avon River Corridor (OARC) was particularly impacted, a geographic zone that had over 7,000 homes which needed to be vacated and demolished. The CES demonstrated how disastrous a natural hazard can be on unprepared communities. With the increasing volatility of climate change being felt around the world, considering ways in which communities can reduce their vulnerabilities to natural hazards is vital. This research explores how communities can reduce their vulnerabilities to natural hazards by becoming more adaptable, and in particular the extent to which tiny homes could facilitate the development of adaptive communities. In doing so, three main themes were explored throughout this research: (1) tiny homes, (2) environmental adaptation and (3) community adaptability. To ensure that it is relevant and provides real value to the local community, the research draws upon the local case study of the Riverlution Tiny House Village(RTHV), an innovative community approach to adaptable, affordable, low-impact, sustainable living on margins of land which are no longer suitable for permanent housing. The main findings of the research are that Christchurch is at risk of climate change and natural hazards and it is therefore important to consider ways in which communities can stay intact and connected while adapting to the risks they face. Tiny homes provide an effective way of doing so, as they represent a tangible way that people can take adaptation into their own hands while maintaining a high-quality lifestyle.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The current study examined the psychological effects of recurring earthquake aftershocks in the city of Christchurch, New Zealand, which began in September 2010. Although it has been identified that exposure to ongoing adverse events such as continuing terrorist attacks generally leads to the development of increasing symptomology over time, differences in perceived controllability and blame between man-made and natural adverse events may contribute to differences in symptom trajectories. Residents of two Christchurch suburbs differentially affected by the earthquakes (N = 128) were assessed on measures of acute stress disorder, generalised anxiety, and depression, at two time points approximately 4-5 months apart, in order to determine whether symptoms intensified or declined over time in the face of ongoing aftershocks. At time 1, clinically significant levels of acute stress were identified in both suburbs, whereas clinical elevations in depression and anxiety were only evident in the most affected suburb. By time 2, both suburbs had fallen below the clinical range on all three symptom types, identifying a pattern of habituation to the aftershocks. Acute stress symptoms at time 2 were the most highly associated with the aftershocks, compared to symptoms of generalised anxiety and depression which were identified by participant reports to be more likely associated with other earthquake-related factors, such as insurance troubles and less frequent socialisation. The finding that exposure to ongoing earthquake aftershocks leads to a decline in symptoms over time may have important implications for the assessment of traumatic stress-related disorders, and provision of services following natural, as compared to man-made, adverse events.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Tsunami events including the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami confirmed the need for Pacific-wide comprehensive risk mitigation and effective tsunami evacuation planning. New Zealand is highly exposed to tsunamis and continues to invest in tsunami risk awareness, readiness and response across the emergency management and science sectors. Evacuation is a vital risk reduction strategy for preventing tsunami casualties. Understanding how people respond to warnings and natural cues is an important element to improving evacuation modelling techniques. The relative rarity of tsunami events locally in Canterbury and also globally, means there is limited knowledge on tsunami evacuation behaviour, and tsunami evacuation planning has been largely informed by hurricane evacuations. This research aims to address this gap by analysing evacuation behaviour and movements of Kaikōura and Southshore/New Brighton (coastal suburb of Christchurch) residents following the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake. Stage 1 of the research is engaging with both these communities and relevant hazard management agencies, using a survey and community workshops to understand real-event evacuation behaviour during the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake and subsequent tsunami evacuations. The second stage is using the findings from stage 1 to inform an agent-based tsunami evacuation model, which is an approach that simulates of the movement of people during an evacuation response. This method improves on other evacuation modelling approaches to estimate evacuation times due to better representation of local population characteristics. The information provided by the communities will inform rules and interactions such as traffic congestion, evacuation delay times and routes taken to develop realistic tsunami evacuation models. This will allow emergency managers to more effectively prepare communities for future tsunami events, and will highlight recommended actions to increase the safety and efficiency of future tsunami evacuations.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This study explores the impact post-earthquake images from Christchurch, New Zealand inserted into a task requiring sustained attention or vigilance have on performance, selfreports of task-focus, and cerebra activity using functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). The images represent the current state of Christchurch; a city struggling to recover from devastating earthquakes that peaked in February, 2011, killing 185 people, injuring hundreds more and causing widespread and massive damage to infrastructure, land and building in the region. Crowdsourcing was used to gather a series of positive and negative photos from greater Christchurch to be employed in the subsequent experiment. Seventy-one Christchurch resident participants (51 women, 20 men) then took part in a vigilance task with the sourced images embedded to assess possible cognitive disruptions. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: embedded positive pictures, embedded negative pictures, or embedded scrambled image controls. Task performance was assessed with signal detection theory metrics of sensitivity A’ and β’’. Individuals viewing the positive images, relating to progress, rebuild, or aesthetic aspects within the city, were overall more conservative or less willing to respond than those in the other conditions. In addition, positive condition individuals reported lower task focus, when compared to those in the control condition. However, indicators of cerebral activity (fNIRS) did not differ significantly between the experimental groups. These results combined, suggest that mind wandering events may be being generated when exposed to positive post-earthquake images. This finding fits with recent research which indicates that mind-wandering or day dreaming tends to be positive and future oriented. While positive recovery images may initiate internal thoughts, this could actually prove problematic in contexts in which external attention is required. While the actual environment, of course, needs to recover, support agencies may want to be careful with employing positive recovery imagery in contexts where people actually should be paying attention to something else, like operating a vehicle or machinery.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Avon River and the Avon-Heathcote Estuary/Ihutai are features of the urban environment of Christchurch City and are popular for recreational and tourist activities. These include punting, rowing, organized yachting, water skiing, shoreline walking, bird watching, recreational fishing and aesthetic appreciation. The Canterbury earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 significantly affected the estuarine and river environments, affecting both the valued urban recreation resources and infrastructure. The aim of the research is to evaluate recreational opportunities using a questionnaire, assess levels of public participation in recreation between winter 2014 and summer 2014-2015 and evaluate the quality of recreational resources. The objective is to determine the main factors influencing recreational uses before and after the February 2011 earthquake and to identify future options for promoting recreational activities. Resource evaluation includes water quality, wildlife values, habitats, riparian strip and the availability of facilities and infrastructure. High levels of recreational participation usually occurred at locations that provided many facilities along with their suitability for family activities, scenic beauty, relaxation, amenities and their proximity to residences. Some locations included more land-based activities, while some included more water-based activities. There were greater opportunities for recreation in summer compared to winter. Activities that were negatively affected by the earthquake such as rowing, kayaking and sailing have resumed. But activities at some places may be limited due to the lack of proper tracks, jetty, public toilets and other facilities and infrastructure. Also, some locations had high levels of bacterial pollution, excessive growth of aquatic plants and a low number of amenity values. These problems need to be solved to facilitate recreational uses. In recovering from the earthquake, the enhancement of recreation in the river and the Estuary will lead to a better quality of life and the improved well-being and psychological health of Christchurch residents. It was concluded that the Avon River and the Avon-Heathcote Estuary/Ihutai continue to provide various opportunities of recreation for users.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Over the last six years, Canterbury residents have lived through two major earthquakes and thousands of aftershocks, with such events negatively impacting psychological health. Research shows rates of post-traumatic stress symptoms in children have doubled post-quake, and a classroom containing children who are experiencing chronically high physiological arousal has been shown to be a stressful environment for teachers. Such stress therefore negatively impacts teachers’ ability to sleep well, meaning many Christchurch teachers may suffer from insomnia, a debilitating condition leading to psychological distress and often comorbid with other mental health conditions. The present research sought to investigate the use of a broadspectrum micronutrient formula called EMPowerplus (EMP+) for chronic insomnia in teachers. This study examined the effect of EMP+ over an 8-10 week period using a multiple-baseline design with placebo. Seventeen teachers were randomized to one of three baseline sequences where they completed a one week baseline period, before receiving five, nine, or 14 days, of placebo as well as 8-10 weeks of the micronutrient formula. After completion of the trial, a three-month follow up was conducted. All participants completed the trial, and results showed a statistically reliable and clinically significant decrease in insomnia severity (Cohen’s dav = - 1.37), on at least one or more aspects of the sleep diary, and on emotional exhaustion (Cohen’s dav = -1.08). EMP+ also statistically significantly reduced insomnia severity compared to placebo (Cohen’s dav = -0.66). Statistically significant reduction was not seen in stress, anxiety and depression scores as compared to placebo, and these levels were not generally clinically raised to begin with. Sixteen out of 17 participants were compliant, and side effects were generally mild and transitory. The current study provides evidence for the beneficial effect of micronutrient supplementation on chronic insomnia in Christchurch teachers working in a stressful environment. Future research incorporating measurement of nutritional intake and proinflammatory biomarkers, as well as conducting comparisons to other conventional treatments, is recommended.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

On November 14 2016 a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck the south island of New Zealand. The earthquake lasted for just two minutes with severe seismic shaking and damage in the Hurunui and Kaikōura districts. Although these are predominantly rural areas, with scattered small towns and mountainous topography, they also contain road and rail routes that are essential parts of the national transport infrastructure. This earthquake and the subsequent recovery are of particular significance as they represent a disaster following in close proximity to another similar disaster, with the Canterbury earthquakes occurring in a neighboring district five years earlier. The research used an inductive qualitative case study to explore the nature of the Kaikōura recovery. That recovery process involved a complex interplay between the three parties; (a) the existing local government in the district, (b) central government agencies funding the recovery of the local residents and the national transport infrastructure, and (c) recovery leaders arriving with recent expertise from the earlier Canterbury disaster. It was evident that three groups: locals, government, and experts represented a multi-party governance debate in which the control of the Kaikōura earthquake recovery was shared amongst them. Each party had their own expertise, adgenda and networks that they brought to the Kaikōura recovery, but this created tensions between external expertise and local, community leadership. Recent earthquake research suggests that New Zealand is currently in the midst of an earthquake cluster, with further seismic disasters likely to occur in relatively close succession. This is likely to be compounded by the increasing frequency of other natural disasters with the effects of climate change. The present study investigates a phenomenon that may become increasingly common, with the transfer of disaster expertise from one event to another, and the interface between those experts with local and national government in directing recoveries. The findings of this study have implications for practitioners and policy makers in NZ and other countries where disasters are experienced in close spatial and temporal proximity.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

People aged 65 years and older are the fastest growing age group in New Zealand. By the mid-2070s, there are predictions that this age group is likely to comprise approximately one third of the population. Older people are encouraged to stay in their own homes within their community for as long as possible with support to encourage the extension of ageing in place. Currently around 14% of those aged 75 years or older, make the move into retirement villages. This is expected to increase. Little is known by retirement villages about the wellbeing and health of those who decide to live independently in these facilities. Predicting the need for a continuum of care is challenging. This research measured the wellbeing and health of older adults. It was situated in a critical realist paradigm, overlaid with an empathetic axiology. A focused literature review considered the impact on wellbeing from the aspects of living place, age, gender, health status and the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Longitudinal studies used the Enlightenment Scale and the interRAI Community Health Assessment (CHA) to measure the wellbeing and health of one group of residents (n=120) living independently in one retirement village in Canterbury, New Zealand. The research was extended to incorporate two cross-section studies when initial results for wellbeing were found to be higher than anticipated. These additional studies included participants living independently from other retirement villages (n=115) and those living independently within the community (n=354). A total of 589 participants, aged 65 – 97 years old, completed the Enlightenment Scale across the four studies. Across the living places, wellbeing continued to significantly improve with age. The Enlightenment Scale was a useful measure of wellbeing with older adults. Participants in the longitudinal studies largely maintained a relatively good health status, showing little change over the study period of 15 months. Predictions for the need for a move to supportive care were not able to be made using the CHA. The health status of participants did not influence their level of wellbeing. The key finding of note is that the wellbeing score of older adults increases by 1.27 points per year, using the Enlightenment Scale, irrespective of where they live.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

After a disaster, cities experience profound social and environmental upheaval. Current research on disasters describes this social disruption along with collective community action to provide support. Pre-existing social capital is recognised as fundamental to this observed support. This research examines the relationship between sense of place for neighbourhood, social connectedness and resilience. Canterbury residents experienced considerable and continued disruption following a large and protracted sequence of earthquakes starting in September 2010. A major aftershock on 22 February 2011 caused significant loss of life, destruction of buildings and infrastructure. Following this earthquake some suburbs of Christchurch showed strong collective action. This research examines the features of the built environment that helped to form this cooperative support. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 20 key informants followed by 38 participants from four case study suburbs. The objectives were to describe the community response of suburbs, to identify the key features of the built environment and the role of social infrastructure in fostering social connectedness. The last objective was to contribute to future planning for community resilience. The findings from this research indicated that social capital and community competence are significant resources to be called upon after a disaster. Features of the local environment facilitated the formation of neighbourhood connections that enabled participants to cope, manage and to collectively solve problems. These features also strengthened a sense of belonging and attachment to the home territory. Propinquity was important; the bumping and gathering places such as schools, small local shops and parks provided the common ground for meaningful pre-existing local interaction. Well-defined geography, intimate street typology, access to quality natural space and social infrastructure helped to build the local social connections and develop a sense of place. Resourceful individuals and groups were also a factor, and many are drawn to live near the inner city or more natural places. The features are the same well understood attributes that contribute to health and wellbeing. The policy and planning framework needs to consider broader social outcomes, including resilience in new and existing urban developments. The socio-political structures that provide access to secure and stable housing and local education should also be recognised and incorporated into local planning for resilience and the everyday.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

On 14 November 2016, the Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake caused widespread damage along the east coast of the South Island, New Zealand. Kaikōura town itself was isolated from the rest of the country by landslides blocking off major roads. While impacts from the Kaikōura earthquake on large, urban population centres have been generally well documented, this thesis aims to fill gaps in academic knowledge regarding small rural towns. This thesis investigates what, where and when critical infrastructure and lifeline service disruption occurred following the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in a selection of small towns, and how the communities in these areas adapted to disruption. Following a robust review of literature and news media, four small rural towns were selected from North Canterbury (Culverden & Waiau) and Marlborough (Seddon & Ward) in the South Island, New Zealand. Semi-structured interview sessions with a special focus on these towns were held with infrastructure managers, emergency response and recovery officials, and organisation leaders with experience or expertise in the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake. Findings were supplemented with emergency management situation reports to produce hazard maps and infrastructure exposure maps. A more detailed analysis was conducted for Waiau involving interdependence analyses and a level of service timeline for select lifeline services. The earthquake impacted roads by blocking them with landslides, debris and surface rupture. Bridges where shaken off their abutments, breaking infrastructure links such as fibre landlines as they went. Water supplies and other forms of infrastructure relied heavily on the level of service of roads, as rough rural terrain left few alternatives. Adapting to an artificial loss of road service, some Waiau locals created their own detour around a road cordon in order to get home to family and farms. Performance of dwellings was tied to socioeconomic factors as much as proximity to the epicentre. Farmers who lost water access pulled out fences to allow stock to drink from rivers. Socioeconomic differences between farmland and township residents also contributed to resilience variations between the towns assessed in this study. Understanding how small rural towns respond and adapt to disaster allows emergency management officials and policy to be well informed and flexible with planning for multiple size classes of towns.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The extent of liquefaction in the eastern suburbs of Christchurch (Aranui, Bexley, Avonside, Avonhead and Dallington) from the February 22 2011 Earthquake resulted in extensive damage to in-ground waste water pipe systems. This caused a huge demand for portable toilets (or port-a-loos) and companies were importing them from outside Canterbury and in some instances from Australia. However, because they were deemed “assets of importance” under legislation, their allocation had to be coordinated by Civil Defence and Emergency Management (CDEM). Consequently, companies supplying them had to ignore requests from residents, businesses and rest homes; and commitments to large events outside of the city such as the Hamilton 400 V8 Supercars and the Pasifika Festival in Auckland were impacted. Frustrations started to show as neighbourhoods questioned the equity of the port-a-loos distribution. The Prime Minister was reported as reassuring citizens in the eastern suburbs in the first week of March that1 “a report about the distribution of port-a-loos and chemical toilets shows allocation has been fair. Key said he has asked Civil Defence about the distribution process and where the toilets been sent. He said there aren’t enough for the scale of the event but that is quickly being rectified and the need for toilets is being reassessed all the time.” Nonetheless, there still remained a deep sense of frustration and exclusion over the equity of the port-a-loos distribution. This study took the simple approach of mapping where those port-a-loos were on 11-12 March for several areas in the eastern suburbs and this suggested that their distribution was not equitable and was not well done. It reviews the predictive tools available for estimating damage to waste water pipes and asks the question could this situation have been better planned so that pot-a-loo locations could have been better prioritised? And finally it reviews the integral roles of communication and monitoring as part of disaster management strategy. The impression from this study is that other New Zealand urban centres could or would also be at risk and that work is need to developed more rational management approaches for disaster planning.