School travel is a major aspect of a young person’s everyday activity. The relationship between the built environment that youth experience on their way to and from school, influences a number of factors including their development, health and wellbeing. This is especially important in low income areas where the built environment is often poorer, but the need for it to be high quality and accessible is greater. This study focusses on the community of Aranui, a relatively low income suburb in Christchurch, New Zealand. It pays particular attention to Haeata Community Campus, a state school of just under 800 pupils from year one through to year thirteen (ages 5-18). The campus opened in 2017 following the closure of four local schools (three primary and one secondary), as part of the New Zealand Government’s Education Renewal scheme following the Christchurch earthquakes of 2010/11. Dedicated effort toward understanding the local built environment, and subsequent travel patterns has been argued to be insufficiently considered. The key focus of this research was to understand the importance of the local environment in encouraging active school travel. The present study combines geospatial analysis, quantitative survey software Maptionnaire, and statistical models to explore the features of the local environment that influence school travel behaviour. Key findings suggest that distance to school and parental control are the most significant predictors of active transport in the study sample. Almost 75% of students live within two kilometres of the school, yet less than 40% utilise active transport. Parental control may be the key contributing factor to the disproportionate private vehicle use. However, active school travel is acknowledged as a complex process that is the product of many individual, household, and local environment factors. To see increased active transport uptake, the local environment needs to be of greater quality. Meaning that the built environment should be improved to be youth friendly, with greater walkability and safe, accessible cycling infrastructure.
As the future of the world’s oil reserves becomes progressively more uncertain, it is becoming increasingly important that steps are taken to ensure that there are viable, attractive alternatives to travel by private motor vehicle. As with many of New Zealand’s major urban centres, Christchurch is still exceptionally reliant on private motor vehicles; although a significant proportion of the population indicate that they would like to cycle more, cycling is still an underutilised mode of transport. Following a series of fatal earthquakes that struck the city in 2010 and 2011, there has been the need to significantly redevelop much of the city’s horizontal infrastructure – subsequently providing the perfect platform for significant changes to be made to the road network. Many of the key planning frameworks governing the rebuild process have identified the need to improve Christchurch’s cycling facilities in order to boost cycling numbers and cyclist safety. The importance of considering future growth and travel patterns when planning for transport infrastructure has been highlighted extensively throughout literature. Accordingly, this study sought to identify areas where future cycle infrastructure development would be advantageous based on a number of population and employment projections, and likely future travel patterns throughout the city. Through the use of extensive GIS analysis, future population growth, employment and travel patterns for Christchurch city were examined in order to attain an understanding of where the current proposed major cycleways network could be improved, or extended. A range of data and network analysis were used to derive likely travel patterns throughout Christchurch in 2041. Trips were derived twice, once with a focus on simply finding the shortest route between each origin and destination, and then again with a focus on cyclist safety and areas where cyclists were unlikely to travel. It was found that although the proposed major cycleways network represents a significant step towards improving the cycling environment in Christchurch, there are areas of the city that will not be well serviced by the current proposed network in 2041. These include a number of key residential growth areas such as Halswell, Belfast and Prestons, along with a number of noteworthy key travel zones, particularly in areas close to the central city and key employment areas. Using network analysis, areas where improvements or extensions to the proposed network would be most beneficial were identified, and a number of potential extensions in a variety of areas throughout the city were added to the network of cycle ways. Although it has been found that filling small gaps in the network can have considerable positive outcomes, results from the prioritisation analysis suggested that initially in Christchurch demand is likely to be for more substantial extensions to the proposed major cycleways network.
The context of this study is the increasing need for public transport as issues over high private vehicle usage are becoming increasingly obvious. Public transport services need to compete with private transport to improve patronage, and issues with reliability need to be addressed. Bus bunching affects reliability through disruptions to the scheduled headways. The purpose of this study was to collect and analyse data to compare how travel time and dwell time vary, to explore the variation of key variables, and to better understand the sources of these variations. The Orbiter bus service in Christchurch was used as a case study, as it is particularly vulnerable to bus bunching. The dwell time was found to be more variable than travel time. It appeared the Canterbury earthquake had significantly reduced the average speeds for the Orbiter service. In 1964, Newell and Potts described a basic bus bunching theory, which was used as the basis for an Excel bus bunching model. This model allows input variables to vary stochastically. Random values were generated from four specified distributions derived from manually collected data, allowing variance across all bus platforms and buses. However the complexity resulted in stability and difficulty in achieving convergence, so the model was run in single Monte Carlo simulations. The outputs were realistic and showed a higher degree of bunching behaviour than previous models. The model demonstrated bunching phenomena that had not been observed in previous models, including spontaneously un-pairing, overtaking of buses delayed at platforms, and odd-numbered bunches of three buses. Furthermore, the study identified areas of further research for data collection and model development.
Using greater Christchurch as a case study, this research seeks to understand the key drivers of residential choice of families with children who live in recently developed, low-density greenfield subdivisions. In particular, the research examines the role that transport-related implications play in families’ choice of residence and location. It also explores the lived experience of the quotidian travel of these households, and the intrinsic value of their time in the car. While the research is situated in one particular location, it is designed to gain an understanding of urban processes and residents’ experiences of these as applicable to broader settings. Concerns about the pernicious environmental, fiscal, and wellbeing effects of sprawling urban form have been growing over the past few decades, inciting many cities including Christchurch to start shifting planning policies to try and achieve greater intensification and a denser development pattern. The 2010/2011 Christchurch earthquake sequence and its destruction of thousands of homes however created huge pressure for housing development, the bulk of which is now occurring on greenfield sites on the peripheries of Christchurch City and its neighbouring towns. Drawing on the insights provided by a wide body of both qualitative and quantitative literature on residential choice, transport and urban form, and mobilities literature as a basis, this research is interested in the attraction of these growing neighbourhoods to families, and puts the focus firmly on the attitudes, values, motivations, decisions, and lived experience of those who live in the growing suburbs of Christchurch.
Climate change and population growth will increase vulnerability to natural and human-made disasters or pandemics. Longitudinal research studies may be adversely impacted by a lack of access to study resources, inability to travel around the urban environment, reluctance of sample members to attend appointments, sample members moving residence and potentially also the destruction of research facilities. One of the key advantages of longitudinal research is the ability to assess associations between exposures and outcomes by limiting the influence of sample selection bias. However, ensuring the validity and reliability of findings in longitudinal research requires the recruitment and retention of respondents who are willing and able to be repeatedly assessed over an extended period of time. This study examined recruitment and retention strategies of 11 longitudinal cohort studies operating during the Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake sequence which began in September 2010, including staff perceptions of the major impediments to study operations during/after the earthquakes and respondents’ barriers to participation. Successful strategies to assist recruitment and retention after a natural disaster are discussed. With the current COVID-19 pandemic, longitudinal studies are potentially encountering some of the issues highlighted in this paper including: closure of facilities, restricted movement of research staff and sample members, and reluctance of sample members to attend appointments. It is possible that suggestions in this paper may be implemented so that longitudinal studies can protect the operation of their research programmes.<br /><br />Key messages<br /><ul><li>Recruitment and retention of longitudinal study participants is challenging following a natural disaster.</li><br /><li>The long-lasting, global effects of the Covid 19 pandemic will increase this problem.</li><br /><li>Longitudinal study researchers should develop protocols to support retention before a disaster occurs.</li><br /><li>Researchers need to be pragmatic and flexible in the design and implementation of their studies.</li></ul>
The magnitude 6.2 Christchurch earthquake struck the city of Christchurch at 12:51pm on February 22, 2011. The earthquake caused 186 fatalities, a large number of injuries, and resulted in widespread damage to the built environment, including significant disruption to lifeline networks and health care facilities. Critical facilities, such as public and private hospitals, government, non-government and private emergency services, physicians’ offices, clinics and others were severely impacted by this seismic event. Despite these challenges many systems were able to adapt and cope. This thesis presents the physical and functional impact of the Christchurch earthquake on the regional public healthcare system by analysing how it adapted to respond to the emergency and continued to provide health services. Firstly, it assesses the seismic performance of the facilities, mechanical and medical equipment, building contents, internal services and back-up resources. Secondly, it investigates the reduction of functionality for clinical and non-clinical services, induced by the structural and non-structural damage. Thirdly it assesses the impact on single facilities and the redundancy of the health system as a whole following damage to the road, power, water, and wastewater networks. Finally, it assesses the healthcare network's ability to operate under reduced and surged conditions. The effectiveness of a variety of seismic vulnerability preparedness and reduction methods are critically reviewed by comparing the observed performances with the predicted outcomes of the seismic vulnerability and disaster preparedness models. Original methodology is proposed in the thesis which was generated by adapting and building on existing methods. The methodology can be used to predict the geographical distribution of functional loss, the residual capacity and the patient transfer travel time for hospital networks following earthquakes. The methodology is used to define the factors which contributed to the overall resilence of the Canterbury hospital network and the areas which decreased the resilence. The results show that the factors which contributed to the resilence, as well as the factors which caused damage and functionality loss were difficult to foresee and plan for. The non-structural damage to utilities and suspended ceilings was far more disruptive to the provision of healthcare than the minor structural damage to buildings. The physical damage to the healthcare network reduced the capacity, which has further strained a health care system already under pressure. Providing the already high rate of occupancy prior to the Christchurch earthquake the Canterbury healthcare network has still provided adequate healthcare to the community.
The research is funded by Callaghan Innovation (grant number MAIN1901/PROP-69059-FELLOW-MAIN) and the Ministry of Transport New Zealand in partnership with Mainfreight Limited. Need – The freight industry is facing challenges related to climate change, including natural hazards and carbon emissions. These challenges impact the efficiency of freight networks, increase costs, and negatively affect delivery times. To address these challenges, freight logistics modelling should consider multiple variables, such as natural hazards, sustainability, and emission reduction strategies. Freight operations are complex, involving various factors that contribute to randomness, such as the volume of freight being transported, the location of customers, and truck routes. Conventional methods have limitations in simulating a large number of variables. Hence, there is a need to develop a method that can incorporate multiple variables and support freight sustainable development. Method - A minimal viable model (MVM) method was proposed to elicit tacit information from industrial clients for building a minimally sufficient simulation model at the early modelling stages. The discrete-event simulation (DES) method was applied using Arena® software to create simulation models for the Auckland and Christchurch corridor, including regional pick-up and delivery (PUD) models, Christchurch city delivery models, and linehaul models. Stochastic variables in freight operations such as consignment attributes, customer locations, and truck routes were incorporated in the simulation. The geographic information system (GIS) software ArcGIS Pro® was used to identify and analyse industrial data. The results obtained from the GIS software were applied to create DES models. Life cycle assessment (LCA) models were developed for both diesel and battery electric (BE) trucks to compare their life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and total cost of ownership (TCO) and support GHG emissions reduction. The line-haul model also included natural hazards in several scenarios, and the simulation was used to forecast the stock level of Auckland and Christchurch depots in response to each corresponding scenario. Results – DES is a powerful technique that can be employed to simulate and evaluate freight operations that exhibit high levels of variability, such as regional pickup and delivery (PUD) and linehaul. Through DES, it becomes possible to analyse multiple factors within freight operations, including transportation modes, routes, scheduling, and processing times, thereby offering valuable insights into the performance, efficiency, and reliability of the system. In addition, GIS is a useful tool for analysing and visualizing spatial data in freight operations. This is exemplified by their ability to simulate the travelling salesman problem (TSP) and conduct cluster analysis. Consequently, the integration of GIS into DES modelling is essential for improving the accuracy and reliability of freight operations analysis. The outcomes of the simulation were utilised to evaluate the ecological impact of freight transport by performing emission calculations and generating low-carbon scenarios to identify approaches for reducing the carbon footprint. LCA models were developed based on simulation results. Results showed that battery-electric trucks (BE) produced more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the cradle phase due to battery manufacturing but substantially less GHG emissions in the use phase because of New Zealand's mostly renewable energy sources. While the transition to BE could significantly reduce emissions, the financial aspect is not compelling, as the total cost of ownership (TCO) for the BE truck was about the same for ten years, despite a higher capital investment for the BE. Moreover, external incentives are necessary to justify a shift to BE trucks. By using simulation methods, the effectiveness of response plans for natural hazards can be evaluated, and the system's vulnerabilities can be identified and mitigated to minimize the risk of disruption. Simulation models can also be utilized to simulate adaptation plans to enhance the system's resilience to natural disasters. Novel contributions – The study employed a combination of DES and GIS methods to incorporate a large number of stochastic variables and driver’s decisions into freight logistics modelling. Various realistic operational scenarios were simulated, including customer clustering and PUD truck allocation. This showed that complex pickup and delivery routes with high daily variability can be represented using a model of roads and intersections. Geographic regions of high customer density, along with high daily variability could be represented by a two-tier architecture. The method could also identify delivery runs for a whole city, which has potential usefulness in market expansion to new territories. In addition, a model was developed to address carbon emissions and total cost of ownership of battery electric trucks. This showed that the transition was not straightforward because the economics were not compelling, and that policy interventions – a variety were suggested - could be necessary to encourage the transition to decarbonised freight transport. A model was developed to represent the effect of natural disasters – such as earthquake and climate change – on road travel and detour times in the line haul freight context for New Zealand. From this it was possible to predict the effects on stock levels for a variety of disruption scenarios (ferry interruption, road detours). Results indicated that some centres rather than others may face higher pressure and longer-term disturbance after the disaster subsided. Remedies including coastal shipping were modelled and shown to have the potential to limit the adverse effects. A philosophical contribution was the development of a methodology to adapt the agile method into the modelling process. This has the potential to improve the clarification of client objectives and the validity of the resulting model.
This dissertation addresses a diverse range of topics in the physics-based broadband ground motion simulation, with a focus on New Zealand applications. In particular the following topics are addressed: the methodology and computational implementation of a New Zealand Velocity Model for broadband ground motion simulation; generalised parametric functions and spatial correlations for seismic velocities in the Canterbury, New Zealand region from surface-wave-based site characterisation; and ground motion simulations of Hope Fault earthquakes. The paragraphs below outline each contribution in more detail. A necessary component in physics-based ground motion simulation is a 3D model which details the seismic velocities in the region of interest. Here a velocity model construction methodology, its computational implementation, and application in the construction of a New Zealand velocity model for use in physics-based broadband ground motion simulation are presented. The methodology utilises multiple datasets spanning different length scales, which is enabled via the use of modular sub-regions, geologic surfaces, and parametric representations of crustal velocity. A number of efficiency-related workflows to decrease the overall computational construction time are employed, while maintaining the flexibility and extensibility to incorporate additional datasets and re- fined velocity parameterizations as they become available. The model comprises explicit representations of the Canterbury, Wellington, Nelson-Tasman, Kaikoura, Marlborough, Waiau, Hanmer and Cheviot sedimentary basins embedded within a regional travel-time tomography-based velocity model for the shallow crust and provides the means to conduct ground motion simulations throughout New Zealand for the first time. Recently developed deep shear-wave velocity profiles in Canterbury enabled models that better characterise the velocity structure within geologic layers of the Canterbury sedimentary basin to be developed. Here the development of depth- and Vs30-dependent para-metric velocity and spatial correlation models to characterise shear-wave velocities within the geologic layers of the Canterbury sedimentary basin are presented. The models utilise data from 22 shear-wave velocity profiles of up to 2.5km depth (derived from surface wave analysis) juxtaposed with models which detail the three-dimensional structure of the geologic formations in the Canterbury sedimentary basin. Parametric velocity equations are presented for Fine Grained Sediments, Gravels, and Tertiary layer groupings. Spatial correlations were developed and applied to generate three-dimensional stochastic velocity perturbations. Collectively, these models enable seismic velocities to be realistically represented for applications such as 3D ground motion and site response simulations. Lastly the New Zealand velocity model is applied to simulate ground motions for a Mw7.51 rupture of the Hope Fault using a physics-based simulation methodology and a 3D crustal velocity model of New Zealand. The simulation methodology was validated for use in the region through comparison with observations for a suite of historic small magnitude earthquakes located proximal to the Hope Fault. Simulations are compared with conventionally utilised empirical ground motion models, with simulated peak ground velocities being notably higher in regions with modelled sedimentary basins. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken where the source characteristics of magnitude, stress parameter, hypocentre location and kinematic slip distribution were varied and an analysis of their effect on ground motion intensities is presented. It was found that the magnitude and stress parameter strongly influenced long and short period ground motion amplitudes, respectively. Ground motion intensities for the Hope Fault scenario are compared with the 2016 Kaikoura Mw7.8 earthquake, it was found that the Kaikoura earthquake produced stronger motions along the eastern South Island, while the Hope Fault scenario resulted in stronger motions immediately West of the near-fault region. The simulated ground motions for this scenario complement prior empirically-based estimates and are informative for mitigation and emergency planning purposes.
This thesis is concerned with modelling rockfall parameters associated with cliff collapse debris and the resultant “ramp” that formed following the high peak ground acceleration (PGA) events of 22 February 2011 and 13 June 2011. The Christchurch suburb of Redcliffs, located at the base of the Port Hills on the northern side of Banks Peninsula, New Zealand, is comprised of Miocene-age volcanics with valley-floor infilling marine sediments. The area is dominated by basaltic lava flows of the Mt Pleasant Formation, which is a suite of rocks forming part of the Lyttelton Volcanic Group that were erupted 11.0-10.0Ma. Fresh exposure enabled the identification of a basaltic ignimbrite unit at the study site overlying an orange tuff unit that forms a marker horizon spanning the length of the field area. Prior to this thesis, basaltic ignimbrite on Banks Peninsula has not been recorded, so descriptions and interpretations of this unit are the first presented. Mapping of the cliff face by remote observation, and analysis of hand samples collected from the base of the debris slopes, has identified a very strong (>200MPa), columnar-jointed, welded unit, and a very weak (<5MPa), massive, so-called brecciated unit that together represent the end-member components of the basaltic ignimbrite. Geochemical analysis shows the welded unit is picrite basalt, and the brecciated unit is hawaiite, making both clearly distinguishable from the underlying trachyandesite tuff. RocFall™ 4.0 was used to model future rockfalls at Redcliffs. RocFall™ is a two-dimensional (2D), hybrid, probabilistic modelling programme for which topographical profile data is used to generate slope profiles. GNS Science collected the data used for slope profile input in March 2011. An initial sensitivity analysis proved the Terrestrial Laser Scan (TLS)-derived slope to be too detailed to show any results when the slope roughness parameter was tested. A simplified slope profile enabled slope roughness to be varied, however the resulting model did not correlate with field observations as well. By using slope profile data from March 2011, modelled rockfall behaviour has been calibrated with observed rockfall runout at Redcliffs in the 13 June 2011 event to create a more accurate rockfall model. The rockfall model was developed on a single slope profile (Section E), with the chosen model then applied to four other section lines (A-D) to test the accuracy of the model, and to assess future rockfall runout across a wider area. Results from Section Lines A, B, and E correlate very well with field observations, with <=5% runout exceeding the modelled slope, and maximum bounce height at the toe of the slope <=1m. This is considered to lie within observed limits given the expectation that talus slopes will act as a ramp on which modelled rocks travel further downslope. Section Lines C and D produced higher runout percentage values than the other three section lines (23% and 85% exceeding the base of the slope, respectively). Section D also has a much higher maximum bounce height at the toe of the slope (~8.0m above the slope compared to <=1.0m for the other four sections). Results from modelling of all sections shows the significance of the ratio between total cliff height (H) and horizontal slope distance (x), and of maximum drop height to the top of the talus (H*) and horizontal slope distance (x). H/x can be applied to the horizontal to vertical ratio (H:V) as used commonly to identify potential slope instability. Using the maximum value from modelling at Redcliffs, the future runout limit can be identified by applying a 1.4H:1V ratio to the remainder of the cliff face. Additionally, the H*/x parameter shows that when H*/x >=0.6, the percentage of rock runout passing the toe of the slope will exceed 5%. When H*/x >=0.75, the maximum bounce height at the toe of the slope can be far greater than when H*/x is below this threshold. Both of these parameters can be easily obtained, and can contribute valuable guideline data to inform future land-use planning decisions. This thesis project has demonstrated the applicability of a 2D probabilistic-based model (RocFall™ 4.0) to evaluate rockfall runout on the talus slope (or ramp) at the base of ~35-70m high cliff with a basaltic ignimbrite source. Limitations of the modelling programme have been identified, in particular difficulties with adjusting modelled roughness of the slope profile and the inability to consider fragmentation. The runout profile using RocFall™ has been successfully calibrated against actual profiles and some anomalous results have been identified.
The Acheron rock avalanche is located in the Red Hill valley almost 80 km west of Christchurch and is one of 42 greywacke-derived rock avalanches identified in the central Southern Alps. It overlies the Holocene active Porters Pass Fault; a component of the Porters Pass-Amberley Fault Zone which extends from the Rakaia River to beyond the Waimakariri River. The Porters Pass Fault is a dextral strike-slip fault system viewed as a series of discontinuous fault scarps. The location of the fault trace beneath the deposit suggests it may represent a possible source of seismic shaking resulting in the formation of the Acheron rock avalanche. The rock mass composition of the rock avalanche source scar is Torlesse Supergroup greywacke consisting of massive sandstone and thinly bedded mudstone sequences dipping steeply north into the centre of the source basin. A stability analysis identified potential instability along shallow north dipping planar defects, and steep south dipping toppling failure planes. The interaction of the defects with bedding is considered to have formed conditions for potential instability most likely triggered by a seismic event. The dTositional area of the rock avalanche covers 7.2 x 105 m2 with an estimated volume of 9 x 10 m3 The mobilised rock mass volume was calculated at 7.5 x 106 m3• Run out of the debris from the top of the source scar to the distal limit reached 3500m, descending over a vertical fall of almost 700m with an estimated Fahrboschung of 0.2. The run out of the rock avalanche displayed moderate to high mobility, travelling at an estimated maximum velocity of 140-160 km/hour. The rapid emplacement of the deposit is confirmed by highly fragmented internal composition and burial of forest vegetation New radiocarbon ages from buried wood retrieved from the base of Acheron rock avalanche deposit represents an emplacement age closely post-dating (Wk 12094) 1152 ± 51 years B.P. This differs significantly from a previous radiocarbon age of (NZ547) 500 ± 69 years B.P. and modal lichenometry and weathering-rind thickness ages of approximately 460 ± 10 yrs and 490 ± 50 years B.P. The new age shows no resemblance to an earthquake event around 700- 500 years B.P. on the Porters Pass-Amberley Fault Zone. The DAN run out simulation using a friction model rheology successfully replicated the long run out and velocity of the Acheron rock avalanche using a frictron angle of 27° and high earth pressure coefficients of 5.5, 5.2, and 5.9. The elevated earth pressure coefficients represent dispersive pressures derived from dynamic fragmentation of the debris within the mobile rock avalanche, supporting the hypothesis of Davies and McSaveney (2002). The DAN model has potential applications for areas prone to large-scale instability in the elevated slopes and steep waterways of the Southern Alps. A paleoseismic investigation of a newly identified scarp of the Porters Pass Fault partially buried by the rock avalanche was conducted to identify any evidence of a coseismic relationship to the Acheron rock avalanche. This identified three-four fault traces striking at 078°, and a sag pond displaying a sequence of overbank deposits containing two buried soils representing an earthquake event horizon. A 40cm vertical offset of the ponded sediment and lower buried soil horizqn was recorded, which was dated to (Wk 13112 charcoal in palosol) 653 ± 54 years B.P. and (Wk 13034 palosol) 661 ± 34 years B.P. The evidence indicates a fault rupture occurred along the Porters Pass Fault, west of Porters Pass most likely extending to the Red Lakes terraces, post-dating 700 years B.P., resulting in 40cm of vertical displacement and an unknown component of dextral strike slip movement. This event post dates the event one (1000 ± 100 years B.P) at Porters Pass previously considered to represent the most recent rupture along the fault line. This points to a probable source for resetting of the modal weathering-rind thicknesses and lichen size populations in the Red Hill valley and possibly the Red Lakes terraces. These results suggest careful consideration must be given to the geomorphic and paleoseismic history of a specific site when applying surface dating techniques and furthermore the origin of dates used in literature and their useful range should be verified. An event at 700-500 years B.P did not trigger the Acheron rock avalanche as previously assumed supporting Howard's conclusions. The lack of similar aged rupture evidence in either of the Porters Pass and Coleridge trenches supports Howard's hypothesis of segmentation of the Porters Pass Fault; where rupture occurs along one fault segment but not along another. The new rock avalanche age closely post-dating 1200-1100 years B.P. resembles the poorly constrained event one rupture age of 1700-800 years B.P for the Porters Pass Fault and the tighter constrained Round Top event of 1010 ± 50 years B.P. on the Alpine Fault. Eight other rock avalanche deposits spread across the central Southern Alps also resemble the new ages however are unable to be assigned specific earthquake events due to the large associated error bars of± 270 years. This clustering of ages does represent compelling lines of evidence for large magnitude earthquake events occurring over the central Southern Alps. The presence of a rock avalanche deposit does not signify an earthquake based on the historical evidence in the Southern Alps however clustering of ages does suggest that large Mw >7 earthquakes occurred across the Southern Alps between 1200-900 years BP.
This report provides an initial overview and gap analysis of the multi-hazards interactions that might affect fluvial and pluvial flooding (FPF) hazard in the Ōpāwaho Heathcote catchment. As per the terms of reference, this report focuses on a one-way analysis of the potential effects of multi-hazards on FPF hazard, as opposed to a more complex multi-way analysis of interactions between all hazards. We examined the relationship between FPF hazard and hazards associated with the phenomena of tsunamis; coastal erosion; coastal inundation; groundwater; earthquakes; and mass movements. Tsunamis: Modelling research indicates the worst-case tsunami scenarios potentially affecting the Ōpāwaho Heathcote catchment are far field. Under low probability, high impact tsunami scenarios waves could travel into Pegasus Bay and the Avon-Heathcote Estuary Ihutai, reaching the mouth and lower reaches of the Heathcote catchment and river, potentially inundating and eroding shorelines in sub-catchments 1 to 5, and temporarily blocking fluvial drainage more extensively. Any flooding infrastructure or management actions implemented in the area of tsunami inundation would ideally be resilient to tsunami-induced inundation and erosion. Model results currently available are a first estimate of potential tsunami inundation under contemporary sea and land level conditions. In terms of future large tsunami events, these models likely underestimate effects in riverside sub-catchments, as well as effects under future sea level, shoreline and other conditions. Also of significance when considering different FPF management structures, it is important to be mindful that certain types of flood structures can ‘trap’ inundating water coming from ocean directions, leading to longer flood durations and salinization issues. Coastal erosion: Model predictions indicate that sub-catchments 1 to 3 could potentially be affected by coastal erosion by the timescale of 2065, with sub-catchments 1-6 predicted to be potentially affected by coastal erosion by the time scale of 2115. In addition, the predicted open coast effects of this hazard should not be ignored since any significant changes in the New Brighton Spit open coast would affect erosion rates and exposure of the landward estuary margins, including the shorelines of the Ōpāwaho Heathcote catchment. Any FPF flooding infrastructure or management activities planned for the potentially affected sub-catchments needs to recognise the possibility of coastal erosion, and to have a planned response to the predicted potential shoreline translation. Coastal inundation: Model predictions indicate coastal inundation hazards could potentially affect sub-catchments 1 to 8 by 2065, with a greater area and depth of inundation possible for these same sub-catchments by 2115. Low-lying areas of the Ōpāwaho Heathcote catchment and river channel that discharge into the estuary are highly vulnerable to coastal inundation since elevated ocean and estuary water levels can block the drainage of inland systems, compounding FPF hazards. Coastal inundation can overwhelm stormwater and other drainage network components, and render river dredging options ineffective at best, flood enhancing at worst. A distinction can be made between coastal inundation and coastal erosion in terms of the potential impacts on affected land and assets, including flood infrastructure, and the implications for acceptance, adaptation, mitigation, and/or modification options. That is, responding to inundation could include structural and/or building elevation solutions, since unlike erosion, inundation does not necessarily mean the loss of land. Groundwater: Groundwater levels are of significant but variable concern when examining flooding hazards and management options in the Ōpāwaho Heathcote catchment due to variability in soils, topographies, elevations and proximities to riverine and estuarine surface waterbodies. Much of the Canterbury Plains part of the Ōpāwaho Heathcote catchment has a water table that is at a median depth of <1m from the surface (with actual depth below surface varying seasonally, inter-annually and during extreme meteorological events), though the water table depth rapidly shifts to >6m below the surface in the upper Plains part of the catchment (sub-catchments 13 to 15). Parts of Waltham/Linwood (sub-catchments 5 & 6) and Spreydon (sub-catchment 10) have extensive areas with a particularly high water table, as do sub-catchments 18, 19 and 20 south of the river. In all of the sub-catchments where groundwater depth below surface is shallow, it is necessary to be mindful of cascading effects on liquefaction hazard during earthquake events, including earthquake-induced drainage network and stormwater infrastructure damage. In turn, subsidence induced by liquefaction and other earthquake processes during the CES directly affected groundwater depth below surface across large parts of the central Ōpāwaho Heathcote catchment. The estuary margin of the catchment also faces increasing future challenges with sea level rise, which has the potential to elevate groundwater levels in these areas, compounding existing liquefaction and other earthquake associated multi-hazards. Any increases in subsurface runoff due to drainage system, development or climate changes are also of concern for the loess covered hill slopes due to the potential to enhance mass movement hazards. Earthquakes: Earthquake associated vertical ground displacement and liquefaction have historically affected, or are in future predicted to affect, all Ōpāwaho Heathcote sub-catchments. During the CES, these phenomena induced a significant cascades of changes in the city’s drainage systems, including: extensive vertical displacement and liquefaction induced damage to stormwater ‘greyware’, reducing functionality of the stormwater system; damage to the wastewater system which temporarily lowered groundwater levels and increased stormwater drainage via the wastewater network on the one hand, creating a pollution multi-hazard for FPF on the other hand; liquefaction and vertical displacement induced river channel changes affected drainage capacities; subsidence induced losses in soakage and infiltration capacities; changes occurred in topographic drainage conductivity; estuary subsidence (mainly around the Ōtākaro Avon rivermouth) increased both FPF and coastal inundation hazards; estuary bed uplift (severe around the Ōpāwaho Heathcote margins), reduced tidal prisms and increased bed friction, producing an overall reduction the waterbody’s capacity to efficiently flush catchment floodwaters to sea; and changes in estuarine and riverine ecosystems. All such possible effects need to be considered when evaluating present and future capacities of the Ōpāwaho Heathcote catchment FPF management systems. These phenomena are particularly of concern in the Ōpāwaho Heathcote catchment since stormwater networks must deal with constraints imposed by stream and river channels (past and present), estuarine shorelines and complex hill topography. Mass movements: Mass movements are primarily a risk in the Port Hills areas of the Ōpāwaho Heathcote catchment (sub-catchments 1, 2, 7, 9, 11, 16, 21), though there are one or two small but susceptible areas on the banks of the Ōpāwaho Heathcote River. Mass movements in the form of rockfalls and debris flows occurred on the Port Hills during the CES, resulting in building damage, fatalities and evacuations. Evidence has also been found of earthquake-triggered tunnel gully collapsesin all Port Hill Valleys. Follow-on effects of these mass movements are likely to occur in major future FPF and other hazard events. Of note, elevated groundwater levels, coastal inundation, earthquakes (including liquefaction and other effects), and mass movement exhibit the most extensive levels of multi-hazard interaction with FPF hazard. Further, all of the analysed multi-hazard interactions except earthquakes were found to consistently produce increases in the FPF hazard. The implications of these analyses are that multihazard interactions generally enhance the FPF hazard in the Ōpāwaho Heathcote catchment. Hence, management plans which exclude adjustments for multi-hazard interactions are likely to underestimate the FPF hazard in numerous different ways. In conclusion, although only a one-way analysis of the potential effects of selected multi-hazards on FPF hazard, this review highlights that the Ōpāwaho Heathcote catchment is an inherently multi- hazard prone environment. The implications of the interactions and process linkages revealed in this report are that several significant multi-hazard influences and process interactions must be taken into account in order to design a resilient FPF hazard management strategy.
