A series of undrained cyclic direct simple shear (DSS) tests on specimens of sandy silty soils are used to evaluate the effects of fines content, fabric and layered structure on the liquefaction response of sandy soils containing non-plastic fines. Test soils originate from shallow deposits in Christchurch, New Zealand, where severe and damaging manifestations of liquefaction occurred during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. A procedure for reconstituting specimens by water sedimentation is employed. This specimen preparation technique involves first pluviation of soil through a water column, and then application of gentle vibrations to the mould (tapping) to prepare specimens with different initial densities. This procedure is applied to prepare uniform specimens, and layered specimens with a silt layer atop a sand layer. Cyclic DSS tests are performed on water-sedimented specimens of two sands, a silt, and sand-silt mixtures with different fines contents. Through this testing program, effects of density, time of vibration during preparation, fines content, and layered structure on cyclic behaviour and liquefaction resistance are investigated. Additional information necessary to characterise soil behaviour is provided by particle size distribution analyses, index void ratio testing, and Scanning Electronic Microscope imaging. The results of cyclic DSS tests show that, for all tested soils, specimens vibrated for longer period of time have lower void ratios, higher relative density, and greater liquefaction resistance. One of the tested sands undergoes significant increase in relative density and liquefaction resistance following prolonged vibration. The other sand exhibits lower increase in relative density and in liquefaction resistance when vibrated for the same period of time. Liquefaction resistance of sand-silt mixtures prepared using this latter sand shows a correlation with relative density irrespective of fines content. In general, however, magnitudes of changes in liquefaction resistance for given variations in vibration time, relative density, or void ratio vary depending on soils under consideration. Characterization based on maximum and minimum void ratios indicates that tested soils develop different structures as fines are added to their respective host sands. These structures influence initial specimen density, strains during consolidation, cyclic liquefaction resistance, and undrained cyclic response of each soil. The different structures are the outcome of differences in particle size distributions, average particle sizes, and particle shapes of the two host sands and of the different relationships between these properties and those of the silt. Fines content alone does not provide an effective characterization of the effects of these factors. Monotonic DSS tests are also performed on specimens prepared by water sedimentation, and on specimens prepared by moist tamping, to identify the critical state lines of tested soils. These critical state lines provide the basis for an alternative interpretation of cyclic DSS tests results within the critical state framework. It is shown that test results imply general consistency between observed cyclic and monotonic DSS soil response. The effects of specimen layering are scrutinised by comparing DSS test results for uniform and layered specimens of the same soils. In this case, only a limited number of tests is performed, and the range of densities considered for the layered specimens is also limited. Caution is therefore required in interpretation of their results. The liquefaction resistance of layered specimens appears to be influenced by the bottom sand layer, irrespective of the global fines content of the specimen. The presence of a layered structure does not result in significant differences in terms of liquefaction response with respect to uniform sand specimens. Cyclic triaxial data for Christchurch sandy silty soils available from previous studies are used to comparatively examine the behaviour observed in the tests of this study. The cyclic DSS liquefaction resistance of water-sedimented specimens is consistent with cyclic triaxial tests on undisturbed specimens performed by other investigators. The two data sets result in similar liquefaction triggering relationships for these soils. However, stress-strain response characteristics for the two types of specimens are different, and undisturbed triaxial specimen exhibit a slower rate of increase in shear strains compared to water-sedimented DSS specimens. This could be due to the greater influence of fabric of the undisturbed specimens.
This report summarizes the development of a region-wide surficial soil shear wave velocity (Vs ) model based on the unique combination of a large high-spatial-density database of cone penetration test (CPT) logs in the greater Christchurch urban area (> 15, 000 logs as of 1 February 2014) and the Christchurch-specific empirical correlation between soil Vs and CPT data developed by McGann et al. [1, 2]. This model has applications for site characterization efforts via maps of time-averaged Vs over specific depths (e.g. Vs30, Vs10), and for numerical modeling efforts via the identification of typical Vs profiles for different regions and soil behaviour types within Christchurch. In addition, the Vs model can be used to constrain the near-surface velocities for the 3D seismic velocity model of the Canterbury basin [3] currently being developed for the purpose of broadband ground motion simulation. The general development of these region-wide near-surface Vs models includes the following general phases, with each discussed in separate chapters of this report. • An evaluation of the available CPT dataset for suitability, and the definition of other datasets and assumptions necessary to characterize the surficial sediments of the region to 30 m depth. • The development of time-averaged shear wave velocity (Vsz) surfaces for the Christchurch area from the adopted CPT dataset (and supplementary data/assumptions) using spatial interpolation. The Vsz surfaces are used to explore the characteristics of the near-surface soils in the regions and are shown to correspond well with known features of the local geology, the historical ecosystems of the area, and observations made following the 2010- 2011 Canterbury earthquakes. • A detailed analysis of the Vs profiles in eight subregions of Christchurch is performed to assess the variablity in the soil profiles for regions with similar Vsz values and to assess Vsz as a predictive metric for local site response. It is shown that the distrubution of soil shear wave velocity in the Christchurch regions is highly variable both spatially (horizontally) and with depth (vertically) due to the varied geological histories for different parts of the area, and the highly stratified nature of the nearsurface deposits. This variability is not considered to be greatly significant in terms of current simplified site classification systems; based on computed Vs30 values, all considered regions can be categorized as NEHRP sites class D (180 < Vs < 360 m/s) or E (Vs < 180 m/s), however, detailed analysis of the shear wave velocity profiles in different subregions of Christchurch show that the expected surficial site response can vary quite a bit across the region despite the relative similarity in Vs30
Cats all over the world hunt wild animals and can contribute to the extinction of threatened species. In New Zealand, around half of all households have at least one cat. When cats live close to a natural area, such as a wetland, they may have impacts on native species. A previous study on the movements and hunting behaviour of domestic (house) cats around the Travis Wetland, Christchurch, New Zealand during 2000-2001 raised concerns about the effects of cats on the local skink population, as skinks were a frequent prey item. My study is a comparison to the prior study, to determine if impacts have changed alongside changes in human populations in the area post-earthquake. The domestic cat population in the area was estimated by a household survey in March-April 2018. For a 6 month period from March-September 2018, 26 households recorded prey brought home by their 41 cats. During April-July 2018, 14 cats wore Global Positioning System (GPS) devices for 7 days each to track their movements. Skink abundance was measured with pitfall trapping over 20 days in February 2018. There were more households in the area in 2018 than there were in 2000, but the numbers of cats had decreased. In the 196 ha study area around Travis Wetland, the domestic cat population was estimated at 429 cats, down from the previous 494. Most of the cats were free roaming, but the majority had been desexed and many were mostly seen at home. A total of 42 prey items were reported from 26 households and 41 cats over 6 months. Of these, 62% were rodents, 26% were exotic birds, and 12% were native birds. There were no native skinks, other mammals, or other vertebrates such as fish and amphibians (invertebrates were not included in this study). Eight male and six female cats were tracked by GPS. Home range sizes for the 100% minimum convex polygons (MCPs) ranged from 1.34 to 9.68 ha (mean 4.09 ha, median 3.54 ha). There were 9/14 (64%) cats that entered the edge of the wetland. Males had significantly larger home range areas at night and in general compared with females. However, age and distance of the cat’s household to the wetland did not have a significant effect on home range size and there was no significant correlation between home range size and prey retrieved. In 20 days of skink trapping, 11 Oligosoma polychroma were caught. The estimated catch rate was not significantly different from an earlier study on skink abundance in Travis Wetland. The apparently low abundance of skinks may have been the result of successful wetland restoration creating less suitable skink habitat, or of other predators other than cats. In the future, increased education should be provided to the public about ways to increase wildlife in their area. This includes creating lizard friendly habitat in their gardens and increasing management for cats. Generally, only a few cats bring home prey often, and these select cats should be identified in initial surveys and included in further studies. In New Zealand, until management programmes can target all predators in urban areas, domestic cats could stay out at night and inside during the day to help decrease the abundance of rodents at night and reduce the number of birds and lizards caught during the day.
This paper summarizes the development of a high-resolution surficial shear wave velocity model based on the combination of the large high-spatial-density database of cone penetration test (CPT) logs in and around Christchurch, New Zealand and a recently-developed Christchurch-specific empirical correlation between soil shear wave velocity and CPT. This near-surface shear wave velocity model has applications for site characterization efforts via the development of maps of time-averaged shear wave velocities over specific depths, as well as use in site response analysis and ground motion simulation.
This research attempts to understand whether community resilience and perceived livability are influenced by housing typologies in Christchurch, New Zealand. Using recent resident surveys undertaken by the Christchurch City Council, two indexes were created to reflect livability and community resilience. Indicators used to create both indexes included (1) enjoyment living in neighbourhood (2) satisfaction with local facilities (3) safety walking and (4) safety using public transport, (5) sense of community (6) neighbour interactions, (7) home ownership and (8) civic engagement. Scores were attributed to 72 neighbourhoods across Christchurch –and each neighbourhood was classified in one of the following housing typologies; (1) earthquake damaged, (2) relatively undamaged, (3) medium density and (4) greenfield developments. Spatial analysis of index scores and housing classifications suggest housing typologies do influence resident’s perceived livability and community bonds to an extent. It was found that deprivation also had a considerable influence on these indexes as well as residential stability. These additional influences help explain why neighbourhoods within the same housing classification differ in their index scores. Based on these results, several recommendations have been made to the CCC in relation to future research, urban development strategies and suburb specific renewal projects. Of chief importance, medium density neighbourhoods and deprived neighbourhoods require conscious efforts to foster community resilience. Results indicate that community resilience might be more important than livability in having a positive influence on the lived experience of residents. While thoughtful design and planning are important, this research suggests geospatial research tools could enable better community engagement outcomes and planning outcomes, and this could be interwoven into proactive and inclusive planning approaches like placemaking.
This paper summarizes the development of a region-wide surficial shear wave velocity model based on the combination of the large high-spatial-density database of cone penetration test (CPT) logs in and around Christchurch, New Zealand and a recently-developed Christchurch-specific empirical correlation between soil shear wave velocity and CPT. The ongoing development of this near-surface shear wave velocity model has applications for site characterization efforts via the development of maps of time-averaged shear wave velocities over specific depths, and the identification of regional similarities and differences in soil shear stiffness.
Following the Mw 6.2 Christchurch Earthquake on 22 February 2011, extensive ground cracking in loessial soils was reported in some areas of the Port Hills, southeast of central Christchurch. This study was undertaken to investigate the mechanisms of earthquake-induced ground damage on the eastern side of the Hillsborough Valley. A zone of extensional cracking up to 40m wide and 600m long was identified along the eastern foot-slope, accompanied by compression features and spring formation at the toe of the slope. An engineering geological and geomorphological model was developed for the eastern Hillsborough Valley that incorporates geotechnical investigation data sourced from the Canterbury Geotechnical Database (CGD), the findings of trenching and seismic refraction surveying carried out for this research, and interpretation of historical aerial photographs. The thickness and extent of a buried peat swamp at the base of the slope was mapped, and found to coincide with significant compression features. Ground cracking was found to have occurred entirely within loess-colluvium and to follow the apices of pre-1920s tunnel-gully fan debris at the southern end of the valley. The ground-cracking on the eastern side of the Hillsborough Valley is interpreted to have formed through tensile failure of the loess-colluvium. Testing was carried out to determine the tensile strength of Port Hills loess colluvium as a function of water content and density, in order to better understand the occurrence and distribution of the observed ground cracking. A comprehensive review of the soil tensile strength testing literature was undertaken, from which a test methodology was developed. Results show remoulded loess-colluvium to possess tensile strength of 7 - 28 kPa across the range of tested moisture contents (10-15%) and dry densities (1650-1900kg/m3). A positive linear relationship was observed between tensile strength and dry density, and a negative linear relationship between moisture content and tensile strength. The observed ground damage and available geotechnical information (inclinometer and piezometer records provided by the Earthquake Commission) were together used to interpret the mechanism(s) of slope movement that occurred in the eastern Hillsborough Valley. The observed ground damage is characteristic of translational movement, but without the development of lateral release scarps, or a basal sliding surface - which was not located during drilling. It is hypothesised that shear displacement has been accommodated by multiple slip surfaces of limited extent within the upper 10m of the slope. Movement has likely occurred within near-saturated colluvial units that have lost strength during earthquake shaking. The eastern Hillsborough Valley is considered to be an ‘incipient translational slide’, as both the patterns of damage and shearing are consistent with the early stages of such slide development. Sliding block analysis was utilised to understand how the eastern Hillsborough Valley may perform in a future large magnitude earthquake. Known cumulative displacements of ~0.3m for eastern Hillsborough Valley during the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence were compared with modelled slope displacements to back-analyse a lower-bound yield acceleration of 0.2 - 0.25g. Synthetic broadband modelling for future Alpine and Hope Fault earthquakes indicates PGAs of approximately 0.08g for soil sites in the Christchurch area, as such, slope movement is unlikely to be reactivated by an Alpine Fault or Hope Fault earthquake. This does not take into account the possible role of strength loss due to excess pore pressure that may occur during these future events.
A multi-disciplinary geo-structural-environmental engineering project funded by the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is being carried out at the University of Canterbury. The project aims at developing an eco-friendly seismic isolation foundation system which will improve the seismic performance of medium-density low-rise buildings. Such system is characterized by two main elements: 1) granulated scrap rubber mixed with gravelly soils to be placed beneath the structure, with the goal damping part of the seismic energy before it reaches the superstructure; and 2) a basement raft made of steel-fibre reinforced rubberised concrete (SFRRuC) to enhance the flexibility and toughness of the foundation, looking at better accommodating the displacement demand. In this paper, the main objectives, scope and methodology of the project will be briefly described. A literature review of the engineering properties of steel-fibre reinforced rubberised concrete (RuC) will be presented. Then, preliminary results on concrete mixes with different rubber and steel fibres content will be exhibited.
This paper presents insights from recent advanced laboratory testing of undisturbed and reconstituted specimens of Christchurch silty-sands. The purpose of the testing was to establish the cyclic strength of silty-sands from sites in the Central Business District (CBD), where liquefaction was observed in 4 September 2010, 22 February 2011, and 13 June 2011. Similar overall strengths were obtained from undisturbed and reconstituted tests prepared at similar densities, albeit with higher variability for the reconstituted specimens. Reconstituted specimens exhibited distinctly different response in terms of lower compressibility during initial loading cycles, and exhibited a more brittle response when large strains were mobilised, particularly for samples with high fines content. Given the lower variability in natural sample response and the possibility of age-related strength to be significant for sites not subjected to earthquakes, high quality undisturbed samples are recommended over the use of reconstituted specimens to establish the cyclic strength of natural sands.
This paper presents the ongoing development of a new 3D seismic velocity model of Canterbury, New Zealand. The model explicitly represents the Canterbury sedimentary basin, and other significant geologic horizons, which are expected to have important implications on observed ground motions. The model utilizes numerous sources of data, including 3D regional tomography with a variable-depth inferred Moho, seismic reflection survey lines, geotechnical boreholes and well logs, spectral analysis of surface waves, and CPT logs which provide velocity constraints over their respective ranges of application. The model provides P- and S-wave velocity and density (i.e. Vp, Vs and p) over a grid of input points, and is presently being utilized in broadband ground motion simulations of the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Comparison of simulated ground motions with those observed in the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes will help provide a better understanding of the salient physical processes which characterized the unique set of strong ground motions recorded in this sequence of earthquake events.
Earthquake-triggered soil liquefaction caused extensive damage and heavy economic losses in Christchurch during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. The most severe manifestations of liquefaction were associated with the presence of natural deposits of clean sands and silty sands of fluvial origin. However, liquefaction resistance of fines-containing sands is commonly inferred from empirical relationships based on clean sands (i.e. sands with less than 5% fines). Hence, existing evaluation methods have poor accuracy when applied to silty sands. The liquefaction behaviour of Christchurch fines-containing (silty) sands is investigated through a series of Direct Simple Shear (DSS) tests. This type of test better resembles earthquake loading conditions in soil deposits compared to cyclic triaxial tests. Soil specimens are reconstituted in the laboratory with the water sedimentation technique. This preparation method yields soil fabrics similar to those encountered in fluvial soil deposits, which are common in the Christchurch area. Test results provide preliminary indications on how void ratio, relative density, preparation method and fines content influence the cyclic liquefaction behaviour of sand-silt mixtures depending on the properties of host sand and silt.
Well-validated liquefaction constitutive models are increasingly important as non-linear time history analyses become relatively more common in industry for key projects. Previous validation efforts of PM4Sand, a plasticity model specifically for liquefaction, have generally focused on centrifuge tests; however, pore pressure transducers installed at several free-field sites during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) in Christchurch, New Zealand provide a relatively unique dataset to validate against. This study presents effective stress site response analyses performed in the finite difference software FLAC to examine the capability of PM4Sand to capture the generation of excess pore pressures during earthquakes. The characterization of the subsurface is primarily based on extensive cone penetration tests (CPT) carried out in Christchurch. Correlations based on penetration resistances are used to estimate soil parameters, such as relative density and shear wave velocity, which affect liquefaction behaviour. The resulting free-field FLAC model is used to estimate time histories of excess pore pressure, which are compared with records during several earthquakes in the CES to assess the suitability of PM4Sand.
Geosynthetic reinforced soil (GRS) walls involve the use of geosynthetic reinforcement (polymer material) within the retained backfill, forming a reinforced soil block where transmission of overturning and sliding forces on the wall to the backfill occurs. Key advantages of GRS systems include the reduced need for large foundations, cost reduction (up to 50%), lower environmental costs, faster construction and significantly improved seismic performance as observed in previous earthquakes. Design methods in New Zealand have not been well established and as a result, GRS structures do not have a uniform level of seismic and static resistance; hence involve different risks of failure. Further research is required to better understand the seismic behaviour of GRS structures to advance design practices. The experimental study of this research involved a series of twelve 1-g shake table tests on reduced-scale (1:5) GRS wall models using the University of Canterbury shake-table. The seismic excitation of the models was unidirectional sinusoidal input motion with a predominant frequency of 5Hz and 10s duration. Seismic excitation of the model commenced at an acceleration amplitude level of 0.1g and was incrementally increased by 0.1g in subsequent excitation levels up to failure (excessive displacement of the wall panel). The wall models were 900mm high with a full-height rigid facing panel and five layers of Microgird reinforcement (reinforcement spacing of 150mm). The wall panel toe was founded on a rigid foundation and was free to slide. The backfill deposit was constructed from dry Albany sand to a backfill relative density, Dr = 85% or 50% through model vibration. The influence of GRS wall parameters such as reinforcement length and layout, backfill density and application of a 3kPa surcharge on the backfill surface was investigated in the testing sequence. Through extensive instrumentation of the wall models, the wall facing displacements, backfill accelerations, earth pressures and reinforcement loads were recorded at the varying levels of model excitation. Additionally, backfill deformation was also measured through high-speed imaging and Geotechnical Particle Image Velocimetry (GeoPIV) analysis. The GeoPIV analysis enabled the identification of the evolution of shear strains and volumetric strains within the backfill at low strain levels before failure of the wall thus allowing interpretations to be made regarding the strain development and shear band progression within the retained backfill. Rotation about the wall toe was the predominant failure mechanism in all excitation level with sliding only significant in the last two excitation levels, resulting in a bi-linear displacement acceleration curve. An increase in acceleration amplification with increasing excitation was observed with amplification factors of up to 1.5 recorded. Maximum seismic and static horizontal earth pressures were recorded at failure and were recorded at the wall toe. The highest reinforcement load was recorded at the lowest (deepest in the backfill) reinforcement layer with a decrease in peak load observed at failure, possibly due to pullout failure of the reinforcement layer. Conversely, peak reinforcement load was recorded at failure for the top reinforcement layer. The staggered reinforcement models exhibited greater wall stability than the uniform reinforcement models of L/H=0.75. However, similar critical accelerations were determined for the two wall models due to the coarseness of excitation level increments of 0.1g. The extended top reinforcements were found to restrict the rotational component of displacement and prevented the development of a preliminary shear band at the middle reinforcement layer, contributing positively to wall stability. Lower acceleration amplification factors were determined for the longer uniform reinforcement length models due to reduced model deformation. A greater distribution of reinforcement load towards the top two extended reinforcement layers was also observed in the staggered wall models. An increase in model backfill density was observed to result in greater wall stability than an increase in uniform reinforcement length. Greater acceleration amplification was observed in looser backfill models due to their lower model stiffness. Due to greater confinement of the reinforcement layers, greater reinforcement loads were developed in higher density wall models with less wall movement required to engage the reinforcement layers and mobilise their resistance. The application of surcharge on the backfill was observed to initially increase the wall stability due to greater normal stresses within the backfill but at greater excitation levels, the surcharge contribution to wall destabilising inertial forces outweighs its contribution to wall stability. As a result, no clear influence of surcharge on the critical acceleration of the wall models was observed. Lower acceleration amplification factors were observed for the surcharged models as the surcharge acts as a damper during excitation. The application of the surcharge also increases the magnitude of reinforcement load developed due to greater confinement and increased wall destabilising forces. The rotation of the wall panel resulted in the progressive development of shears surface with depth that extended from the backfill surface to the ends of the reinforcement (edge of the reinforced soil block). The resultant failure plane would have extended from the backfill surface to the lowest reinforcement layer before developing at the toe of the wall, forming a two-wedge failure mechanism. This is confirmed by development of failure planes at the lowest reinforcement layer (deepest with the backfill) and at the wall toe observed at the critical acceleration level. Key observations of the effect of different wall parameters from the GeoPIV results are found to be in good agreement with conclusions developed from the other forms of instrumentation. Further research is required to achieve the goal of developing seismic guidelines for GRS walls in geotechnical structures in New Zealand. This includes developing and testing wall models with a different facing type (segmental or wrap-around facing), load cell instrumentation of all reinforcement layers, dynamic loading on the wall panel and the use of local soils as the backfill material. Lastly, the limitations of the experimental procedure and wall models should be understood.
This poster provides a summary of the development of a 3D shallow (z<40m) shear wave velocity (Vs) model for the urban Christchurch, New Zealand region. The model is based on a recently developed Christchurch-specific empirical correlation between Vs and cone penetration test (CPT) data (McGann et al. 2014a,b) and the large high-density database of CPT logs in the greater Christchurch urban area (> 15,000 logs as of 01/01/2014). In particular, the 3D model provides shear wave velocities for the surficial Springston Formation, Christchurch Formation, and Riccarton gravel layers which generally comprise the upper 40m in the Christchurch urban area. Point-estimates are provided on a 200m-by- 200m grid from which interpolation to other locations can be performed. This model has applications for future site characterization and numerical modeling efforts via maps of timeaveraged Vs over specific depths (e.g. Vs30, Vs10) and via the identification of typical Vs profiles for different regions and soil behaviour types within Christchurch. In addition, the Vs model can be used to constrain the near-surface velocities for the 3D seismic velocity model of the Canterbury basin (Lee et al. 2014) currently being developed for the purpose of broadband ground motion simulation.
Recent earthquakes in New Zealand proved that a shift is necessary in the current design practice of structures to achieve better seismic performance. Following such events, the number of new buildings using innovative technical solutions (e.g. base isolation, controlled rocking systems, damping devices, etc.), has increased, especially in Christchurch. However, the application of these innovative technologies is often restricted to medium-high rise buildings due to the maximum benefit to cost ratio. In this context, to address this issue, a multi-disciplinary geo-structural-environmental engineering project funded by the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is being carried out at the University of Canterbury. The project aims at developing a foundation system which will improve the seismic performance of medium-density low-rise buildings. Such foundation is characterized by two main elements: 1) granulated tyre rubber mixed with gravelly soils to be placed beneath the structure, with the goal of damping part of the seismic energy before it reaches the superstructure; and 2) a basement raft made of steel-fibre rubberised concrete to enhance the flexibility of the foundation under differential displacement demand. In the first part of this paper, the overarching objectives, scope and methodology of the project will be briefly described. Then, preliminary findings on the materials characterization, i.e., the gravel-rubber mixtures and steel-fibre rubberised concrete mixes, will be presented and discussed with focus on the mechanical behaviour.
Using greater Christchurch as a case study, this research seeks to understand the key drivers of residential choice of families with children who live in recently developed, low-density greenfield subdivisions. In particular, the research examines the role that transport-related implications play in families’ choice of residence and location. It also explores the lived experience of the quotidian travel of these households, and the intrinsic value of their time in the car. While the research is situated in one particular location, it is designed to gain an understanding of urban processes and residents’ experiences of these as applicable to broader settings. Concerns about the pernicious environmental, fiscal, and wellbeing effects of sprawling urban form have been growing over the past few decades, inciting many cities including Christchurch to start shifting planning policies to try and achieve greater intensification and a denser development pattern. The 2010/2011 Christchurch earthquake sequence and its destruction of thousands of homes however created huge pressure for housing development, the bulk of which is now occurring on greenfield sites on the peripheries of Christchurch City and its neighbouring towns. Drawing on the insights provided by a wide body of both qualitative and quantitative literature on residential choice, transport and urban form, and mobilities literature as a basis, this research is interested in the attraction of these growing neighbourhoods to families, and puts the focus firmly on the attitudes, values, motivations, decisions, and lived experience of those who live in the growing suburbs of Christchurch.
Despite the relatively low seismicity, a large earthquake in the Waikato region is expected to have a high impact, when the fourth-largest regional population and economy and the high density critical infrastructure systems in this region are considered. Furthermore, Waikato has a deep soft sedimentary basin, which increases the regional seismic hazard due to trapping and amplification of seismic waves and generation of localized surface waves within the basin. This phenomenon is known as the “Basin Effect”, and has been attributed to the increased damage in several historic earthquakes, including the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. In order to quantitatively model the basin response and improve the understanding of regional seismic hazard, geophysical methods will be used to develop shear wave velocity profiles across the Waikato basin. Active surface wave methods involve the deployment of linear arrays of geophones to record the surface waves generated by a sledge hammer. Passive surface wave methods involve the deployment of two-dimensional seismometer arrays to record ambient vibrations. At each site, the planned testing includes one active test and two to four passive arrays. The obtained data are processed to develop dispersion curves, which describe surface wave propagation velocity as a function of frequency (or wavelength). Dispersion curves are then inverted using the Geopsy software package to develop a suite of shear wave velocity profiles. Currently, more than ten sites in Waikato are under consideration for this project. This poster presents the preliminary results from the two sites that have been tested. The shear wave velocity profiles from all sites will be used to produce a 3D velocity model for the Waikato basin, a part of QuakeCoRE flagship programme 1.
Bulk rock strength is greatly dependent on fracture density, so that reductions in rock strength associated with faulting and fracturing should be reflected by reduced shear coupling and hence S-wave velocity. This study is carried out along the Canterbury rangefront and in Otago. Both lie within the broader plate boundary deformation zone in the South Island of New Zealand. Therefore built structures are often, , located in areas where there are undetected or poorly defined faults with associated rock strength reduction. Where structures are sited near to, or across, such faults or fault-zones, they may sustain both shaking and ground deformation damage during an earthquake. Within this zone, management of seismic hazards needs to be based on accurate identification of the potential fault damage zone including the likely width of off-plane deformation. Lateral S-wave velocity variability provides one method of imaging and locating damage zones and off-plane deformation. This research demonstrates the utility of Multi-Channel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) to aid land-use planning in such fault-prone settings. Fundamentally, MASW uses surface wave dispersive characteristics to model a near surface profile of S-wave velocity variability as a proxy for bulk rock strength. The technique can aid fault-zone planning not only by locating and defining the extent of fault-zones, but also by defining within-zone variability that is readily correlated with measurable rock properties applicable to both foundation design and the distribution of surface deformation. The calibration sites presented here have well defined field relationships and known fault-zone exposure close to potential MASW survey sites. They were selected to represent a range of progressively softer lithologies from intact and fractured Torlesse Group basement hard rock (Dalethorpe) through softer Tertiary cover sediments (Boby’s Creek) and Quaternary gravels. This facilitated initial calibration of fracture intensity at a high-velocity-contrast site followed by exploration of the limits of shear zone resolution at lower velocity contrasts. Site models were constructed in AutoCAD in order to demonstrate spatial correlations between S-wave velocity and fault zone features. Site geology was incorporated in the models, along with geomorphology, river profiles, scanline locations and crosshole velocity measurement locations. Spatial data were recorded using a total-station survey. The interpreted MASW survey results are presented as two dimensional snapshot cross-sections of the three dimensional calibration-site models. These show strong correlations between MASW survey velocities and site geology, geomorphology, fluvial profiles and geotechnical parameters and observations. Correlations are particularly pronounced where high velocity contrasts exist, whilst weaker correlations are demonstrated in softer lithologies. Geomorphic correlations suggest that off-plane deformation can be imaged and interpreted in the presence of suitable topographic survey data. A promising new approach to in situ and laboratory soft-rock material and mass characterisation is also presented using a Ramset nail gun. Geotechnical investigations typically involve outcrop and laboratory scale determination of rock mass and material properties such as fracture density and unconfined compressive strength (UCS). This multi-scale approach is espoused by this study, with geotechnical and S-wave velocity data presented at multiple scales, from survey scale sonic velocity measurements, through outcrop scale scanline and crosshole sonic velocity measurements to laboratory scale property determination and sonic velocity measurements. S-wave velocities invariably increased with decreasing scale. These scaling relationships and strategies for dealing with them are investigated and presented. Finally, the MASW technique is applied to a concealed fault on the Taieri Ridge in Macraes Flat, Central Otago. Here, high velocity Otago Schist is faulted against low velocity sheared Tertiary and Quaternary sediments. This site highlights the structural sensitivity of the technique by apparently constraining the location of the principal fault, which had been ambiguous after standard processing of the seismic reflection data. Processing of the Taieri Ridge dataset has further led to the proposal of a novel surface wave imaging technique termed Swept Frequency Imaging (SFI). This inchoate technique apparently images the detailed structure of the fault-zone, and is in agreement with the conventionally-determined fault location and an existing partial trench. Overall, the results are promising and are expected to be supported by further trenching in the near future.
The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquakes brought devastation to the city of Christchurch and has irrevocably affected the lives of the city’s residents. Years after the conclusion of these earthquakes, Christchurch and its residents are well on the path to recovery. Crime has proven an ongoing topic of discussion throughout this period, with news reports of increased burglary and arson in areas left largely abandoned by earthquake damage, and a rise in violent crime in suburban areas of Christchurch. Following the body of research that has considered the reaction of crime to natural disasters, this research has sought to comprehensively examine and understand the effects that the Canterbury Earthquakes had on crime. Examining Christchurch-wide offending, crime rates fell over the study period (July 2008 to June 2013), with the exception of domestic violence. Aside from a momentary increase in burglary in the days immediately following the Christchurch Earthquake, crime rates (as of 2013) have remained largely below pre-earthquake levels. Using Dual Kernel Density Estimation Analysis, a distinct spatial change in pre-earthquake crime hotspots was observed. These changes included an enormous decrease in central city offences, a rise in burglary in the eastern suburbs, and an increase in assault in areas outside of the central city. Logistic regression analysis, using a time-compensated dependent variable, identified a number of statistically-significant relationships between per CAU crime rate change and factors measuring socio-demographic characteristics, community cohesion, and the severity of disaster effects. The significance of these findings was discussed using elements of Social Disorganisation Theory, Routine Activity Theory, and Strain Theory. Consistent with past findings, social order was largely maintained following the Canterbury Earthquakes, with suggestion that increased collective efficacy and therapeutic communities had a negative influence on crime in the post-earthquake period. Areas of increased burglary and assault were associated with large population decreases, suggesting a link with the dissolution of communities and the removal of their inherent informal guardianship. Though observed, the increase in domestic violence was not associated with most neighbourhood-level variables. Trends in crime after the Canterbury Earthquakes were largely consistent with past research, and the media’s portrayal.
Fine grained sediment deposition in urban environments during natural hazard events can impact critical infrastructure and properties (urban terrain) leading to reduced social and economic function and potentially adverse public health effects. Therefore, clean-up of the sediments is required to minimise impacts and restore social and economic functionality as soon as possible. The strategies employed to manage and coordinate the clean-up significantly influence the speed, cost and quality of the clean-up operation. Additionally, the physical properties of the fine grained sediment affects the clean-up, transport, storage and future usage of the sediment. The goals of the research are to assess the resources, time and cost required for fine grained sediment clean-up in an urban environment following a disaster and to determine how the geotechnical properties of sediment will affect urban clean-up strategies. The thesis focuses on the impact of fine grained sediment (<1 mm) deposition from three liquefaction events during the Canterbury earthquake sequence (2010-2011) on residential suburbs and transport networks in Christchurch. It also presents how geotechnical properties of the material may affect clean-up strategies and methods by presenting geotechnical analysis of tephra material from the North Island of New Zealand. Finally, lessons for disaster response planning and decision making for clean-up of sediment in urban environments are presented. A series of semi-structured interviews of key stakeholders supported by relevant academic literature and media reports were used to record the clean-up operation coordination and management and to make a preliminary qualification of the Christchurch liquefaction ejecta clean-up (costs breakdown, time, volume, resources, coordination, planning and priorities). Further analysis of the costs and resources involved for better accuracy was required and so the analysis of Christchurch City Council road management database (RAMM) was done. In order to make a transition from general fine sediment clean-up to specific types of fine disaster sediment clean-up, adequate information about the material properties is required as they will define how the material will be handled, transported and stored. Laboratory analysis of young volcanic tephra from the New Zealand’s North Island was performed to identify their geotechnical properties (density, granulometry, plasticity, composition and angle of repose). The major findings of this research were that emergency planning and the use of the coordinated incident management system (CIMS) system during the emergency were important to facilitate rapid clean-up tasking, management of resources and ultimately recovery from widespread and voluminous liquefaction ejecta deposition in eastern Christchurch. A total estimated cost of approximately $NZ 40 million was calculated for the Christchurch City clean-up following the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence with a partial cost of $NZ 12 million for the Southern part of the city, where up to 33% (418 km) of the road network was impacted by liquefaction ejecta and required clearing of the material following the 22 February 2011 earthquake. Over 500,000 tonnes of ejecta has been stockpiled at Burwood landfill for all three liquefaction inducing earthquake events. The average cost per kilometre for the event clean-up was $NZ 5,500/km (4 September 2010), $NZ 11,650/km (22 February 2011) and $NZ 11,185/km (13 June 2011). The duration of clean-up time of residential properties and the road network was approximately two to three months for each of the three liquefaction ejecta events; despite events volumes and spatial distribution of ejecta. Interviews and quantitative analysis of RAMM data revealed that the experience and knowledge gained from the Darfield earthquake (4 September 2010) clean-up increased the efficiency of the following Christchurch earthquake induced liquefaction ejecta clean-up events. Density, particle size, particle shape, clay content and moisture content, are the important geotechnical properties that need to be considered when planning for a clean-up method that incorporates collection, transport and disposal or storage. The geotechnical properties for the tephra samples were analysed to increase preparedness and reaction response of potentially affected North Island cities from possible product from the active volcanoes in their region. The geotechnical results from this study show that volcanic tephra could be used in road or construction material but the properties would have to be further investigated for a New Zealand context. Using fresh volcanic material in road, building or flood control construction requires good understanding of the material properties and precaution during design and construction to extra care, but if well planned, it can be economically beneficial.
Deformational properties of soil, in terms of modulus and damping, exert a great influence on seismic response of soil sites. However, these properties for sands containing some portion of fines particles have not been systematically addressed. In addition, simultaneous modelling of the modulus and damping behaviour of soils during cyclic loading is desirable. This study presents an experimental and computational investigation into the deformational properties of sands containing fines content in the context of site response analysis. The experimental investigation is carried on sandy soils sourced from Christchurch, New Zealand using a dynamic triaxial apparatus while the computational aspect is based on the framework of total-stress one-dimensional (1D) cyclic behaviour of soil. The experimental investigation focused on a systematic study on the deformational behaviour of sand with different amounts of fines content (particle diameter ≤ 75µm) under drained conditions. The silty sands were prepared by mixing clean sand with three different percentages of fines content. A series of bender element tests at small-strain range and stress-controlled dynamic triaxial tests at medium to high-strain ranges were conducted on samples of clean sand and silty sand. This allowed measurements of linear and nonlinear deformational properties of the same specimen for a wide strain range. The testing program was designed to quantify the effects of void ratio and fines content on the low-strain stiffness of the silty sand as well as on the nonlinear stress-strain relationship and corresponding shear modulus and damping properties as a function of cyclic shear strains. Shear wave velocity, Vs, and maximum shear modulus, Gmax, of silty sand was shown to be significantly smaller than the respective values for clean sands measured at the same void ratio, e, or same relative density, Dr. However, the test results showed that the difference in the level of nonlinearity between clean sand and silty sands was small. For loose samples prepared at an identical relative density, the behaviour of clean sand was slightly less nonlinear as compared to sandy soils with higher fines content. This difference in the nonlinear behaviour of clean sand and sandy soils was negligible for dense soils. Furthermore, no systematic influence of fines content on the material damping curve was observed for sands with fines content FC = 0 to 30%. In order to normalize the effects of fines on moduli of sands, equivalent granular void ratio, e*, was employed. This was done through quantifying the participation of fines content in the force transfer chain of the sand matrix. As such, a unified framework for modelling of the variability of shear wave velocity, Vs, (or shear modulus, Gmax) with void ratio was achieved for clean sands and sands with fines, irrespective of their fines content. Furthermore, modelling of the cyclic stress-strain behaviour based on this experimental program was investigated. The modelling effort focused on developing a simple constitutive model which simultaneously models the soil modulus and damping relationships with shear strains observed in laboratory tests. The backbone curve of the cyclic model was adopted based on a modified version of Kondner and Zelasko (MKZ) hyperbolic function, with a curvature coefficient, a. In order to simulate the hysteretic cycles, the conventional Masing rules (Pyke 1979) were revised. The parameter n, in the Masing’s criteria was assumed to be a function of material damping, h, measured in the laboratory. As such the modulus and damping produced by the numerical model could match the stress-strain behaviour observed in the laboratory over the course of this study. It was shown that the Masing parameter n, is strain-dependent and generally takes values of n ≤ 2. The model was then verified through element test simulations under different cyclic loadings. It was shown that the model could accurately simulate the modulus and the damping simultaneously. The model was then incorporated within the OpenSees computational platform and was used to scrutinize the effects of damping on one-dimensional seismic site response analysis. For this purpose, several strong motion stations which recorded the Canterbury earthquake sequence were selected. The soil profiles were modelled as semi-infinite horizontally layered deposits overlying a uniform half-space subjected to vertically propagating shear waves. The advantages and limitations of the nonlinear model in terms of simulating soil nonlinearity and associated material damping were further scrutinized. It was shown that generally, the conventional Masing criteria unconservatively may underestimate some response parameters such as spectral accelerations. This was shown to be due to larger hysteretic damping modelled by using conventional Masing criteria. In addition, maximum shear strains within the soil profiles were also computed smaller in comparison to the values calculated by the proposed model. Further analyses were performed to study the simulation of backbone curve beyond the strain ranges addressed in the experimental phase of this study. A key issue that was identified was that relying only on the modulus reduction curves to simulate the stress-strain behaviour of soil may not capture the actual soil strength at larger strains. Hence, strength properties of the soil layer should also be incorporated to accurately simulate the backbone curve.
In 2010 and 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand experienced a series of earthquakes that caused extensive damage across the city, but primarily to the Central Business District (CBD) and eastern suburbs. A major feature of the observed damage was extensive and severe soil liquefaction and associated ground damage, affecting buildings and infrastructure. The behaviour of soil during earthquake loading is a complex phenomena that can be most comprehensively analysed through advanced numerical simulations to aid engineers in the design of important buildings and critical facilities. These numerical simulations are highly dependent on the capabilities of the constitutive soil model to replicate the salient features of sand behaviour during cyclic loading, including liquefaction and cyclic mobility, such as the Stress-Density model. For robust analyses advanced soil models require extensive testing to derive engineering parameters under varying loading conditions for calibration. Prior to this research project little testing on Christchurch sands had been completed, and none from natural samples containing important features such as fabric and structure of the sand that may be influenced by the unique stress-history of the deposit. This research programme is focussed on the characterisation of Christchurch sands, as typically found in the CBD, to facilitate advanced soil modelling in both res earch and engineering practice - to simulate earthquake loading on proposed foundation design solutions including expensive ground improvement treatments. This has involved the use of a new Gel Push (GP) sampler to obtain undisturbed samples from below the ground-water table. Due to the variable nature of fluvial deposition, samples with a wide range of soil gradations, and accordingly soil index properties, were obtained from the sampling sites. The quality of the samples is comprehensively examined using available data from the ground investigation and laboratory testing. A meta-quality assessment was considered whereby a each method of evaluation contributed to the final quality index assigned to the specimen. The sampling sites were characterised with available geotechnical field-based test data, primarily the Cone Penetrometer Test (CPT), supported by borehole sampling and shear-wave velocity testing. This characterisation provides a geo- logical context to the sampling sites and samples obtained for element testing. It also facilitated the evaluation of sample quality. The sampling sites were evaluated for liquefaction hazard using the industry standard empirical procedures, and showed good correlation to observations made following the 22 February 2011 earthquake. However, the empirical method over-predicted liquefaction occurrence during the preceding 4 September 2010 event, and under-predicted for the subsequent 13 June 2011 event. The reasons for these discrepancies are discussed. The response of the GP samples to monotonic and cyclic loading was measured in the laboratory through triaxial testing at the University of Canterbury geomechanics laboratory. The undisturbed samples were compared to reconstituted specimens formed in the lab in an attempt to quantify the effect of fabric and structure in the Christchurch sands. Further testing of moist tamped re- constituted specimens (MT) was conducted to define important state parameters and state-dependent properties including the Critical State Line (CSL), and the stress-strain curve for varying state index. To account for the wide-ranging soil gradations, selected representative specimens were used to define four distinct CSL. The input parameters for the Stress-Density Model (S-D) were derived from a suite of tests performed on each representative soil, and with reference to available GP sample data. The results of testing were scrutinised by comparing the data against expected trends. The influence of fabric and structure of the GP samples was observed to result in similar cyclic strength curves at 5 % Double Amplitude (DA) strain criteria, however on close inspection of the test data, clear differences emerged. The natural samples exhibited higher compressibility during initial loading cycles, but thereafter typically exhibited steady growth of plastic strain and excess pore water pressure towards and beyond the strain criteria and initial liquefaction, and no flow was observed. By contrast the reconstituted specimens exhibited a stiffer response during initial loading cycles, but exponential growth in strains and associated excess pore water pressure beyond phase-transformation, and particularly after initial liquefaction where large strains were mobilised in subsequent cycles. These behavioural differences were not well characterised by the cyclic strength curve at 5 % DA strain level, which showed a similar strength for both GP samples and MT specimens. A preliminary calibration of the S-D model for a range of soil gradations is derived from the suite of laboratory test data. Issues encountered include the influence of natural structure on the peak-strength–state index relationship, resulting in much higher peak strengths than typically observed for sands in the literature. For the S-D model this resulted in excessive stiffness to be modelled during cyclic mobility, when the state index becomes large momentarily, causing strain development to halt. This behaviour prevented modelling the observed re- sponse of silty sands to large strains, synonymous with “liquefaction”. Efforts to reduce this effect within the current formulation are proposed as well as future research to address this issue.
One of the less understood geotechnical responses to the cyclic loading from the MW6.2 Christchurch Earthquake, on the 22nd of February 2011, is the fissuring in the loessial soil-mantled, footslope positions of the north-facing valleys of the Port Hills. The fissures are characterized by mostly horizontal offset (≤500mm), with minor vertical displacement (≤300mm), and they extend along both sides of valleys for several hundred metres in an approximately contour-parallel orientation. The fissure traces correspond to extensional features mapped in other studies. Previous studies have suggested that the fissures are the headscarps of incipient landslides, but the surface and subsurface features are not typical of landslide movement. Whilst there are some features that correlate with landslide movement, there are many features that contradict the landslide movement hypothesis. Of critical importance to this investigation was the fact that there are no landslide flanks, there has been no basal shear surface found, there is little deformation in the so-called ‘landslide body’, and there have been no recorded zones of low shear strength in the soil deposit that are indicative of a basal shear surface. This thesis is a detailed geotechnical study on the fissures along part of Ramahana Road in the Hillsborough Valley, Christchurch. Shallow and deep investigation methods found that the predominant soil is loess-colluvium, to depths of ~20m, and this soil has variable geotechnical characteristics depending on the layer sampled. The factor that has the most influence on shear strength was found to be the moisture content. Direct shear-box testing of disturbed, recompacted loess-colluvium found that the soil had a cohesion of 35-65kPa and a friction angle of 38-43° when the soil moisture content was at 8-10%. However when the moisture content was at 19-20% the soil’s cohesion decreased to 3-5kPa and its friction angle decreased to 33-38°, this moisture content is at or slightly above the plastic limit. An electrical resistivity geophysical survey was conducted perpendicular to multiple fissure traces and through the compressional zone at 17 Ramahana Road. The electrical resistivity line found that there was an area of high resistivity at the toe of the slope, and an area of high conductivity downslope of this and at greater depths. This area correlated to the compressional zone recorded by previous studies. Moisture content testing of the soil in these locations showed that the soil in the resistive area was relatively dry (9%) compared to the surrounding soil (13%), whilst the soil in the conductive area was relatively wet (22%)compared to the surrounding soil (19%). Density tests of the soil in the compressional zone recorded that the resistive area had a higher dry density than the surrounding soil (~1790 kg/m3 compared to ~1650 kg/m3). New springs arose downslope of the compressional zone contemporaneously with the fissures, and it is interpreted that these have arisen from increased hydraulic head in the Banks Peninsula bedrock aquifer system, and earthquake induced-bedrock fracturing. A test pit was dug across an infilled fissure trace at 17 Ramahana Road to a depth of 3m. The fissure trace had an aperture of 450-470mm at the ground surface, but it gradually lost aperture with depth until 2.0-2.1m where it became a segmented fissure trace with 1-2mm aperture. A mixed-colluvium layer was intercepted by the fissure trace at 2.4m depth, and there was no observable vertical offset of this layer. The fissure trace was at an angle of 78° at the ground surface, but it also flattened with depth, which gave it a slightly curved appearance. The fissure trace was at an assumed angle of 40-50° near the base of the test pit. Rotational slide, translational slide and lateral spread landslide movement types were compared and contrasted as possibilities for landslide movement types, whilst an alternative hypothesis was offered that the fissures are tensile failures with a quasi-toppling motion involving a cohesive block of loessial soil moving outwards from the slope, with an accommodating compressional strain in the lower less cohesive soil. The mechanisms behind this movement are suggested to be the horizontal earthquake inertia forces from the Christchurch Earthquake, the static shear stress of the slope, and bedrock uplift of the Port Hills in relation to the subsidence of the Christchurch city flatlands. Extremely high PGA is considered to be a prerequisite to the fissure trace development, and these can only be induced in the Hillsborough Valley from a Port Hills Fault rupture, which has a recurrence interval of ~10,000 years. The current understanding of how the loess-colluvium soil would behave under cyclic loading is limited, and the mechanisms behind the suggested movement type are not completely understood. Further research is needed to confirm the proposed mechanism of the fissure traces. Laboratory tests such as the cyclic triaxial and cyclic shear test would be beneficial in future research to quantitatively test how the soil behaves under cyclic loading at various moisture contents and clay contents, and centrifuge experiments would be of great use to qualitatively test the suggested mode of movement in the loessial soil.
Between 2010 and 2011, Canterbury experienced a series of four large earthquake events with associated aftershocks which caused widespread damage to residential and commercial infrastructure. Fine grained and uncompacted alluvial soils, typical to the Canterbury outwash plains, were exposed to high peak ground acceleration (PGA) during these events. This rapid increase in PGA induced cyclic strain softening and liquefaction in the saturated, near surface alluvial soils. Extensive research into understanding the response of soils in Canterbury to dynamic loading has since occurred. The Earthquake Commission (EQC), the Ministry of Business and Employment (MBIE), and the Christchurch City Council (CCC) have quantified the potential hazards associated with future seismic events. Theses bodies have tested numerous ground improvement design methods, and subsequently are at the forefront of the Canterbury recovery and rebuild process. Deep Soil Mixing (DSM) has been proven as a viable ground improvement foundation method used to enhance in situ soils by increasing stiffness and positively altering in situ soil characteristics. However, current industry practice for confirming the effectiveness of the DSM method involves specific laboratory and absolute soil test methods associated with the mixed column element itself. Currently, the response of the soil around the columns to DSM installation is poorly understood. This research aims to understand and quantify the effects of DSM columns on near surface alluvial soils between the DSM columns though the implementation of standardised empirical soil test methods. These soil strength properties and ground improvement changes have been investigated using shear wave velocity (Vs), soil behaviour and density response methods. The results of the three different empirical tests indicated a consistent improvement within the ground around the DSM columns in sandier soils. By contrast, cohesive silty soils portrayed less of a consistent response to DSM, although still recorded increases. Generally, within the tests completed 50 mm from the column edge, the soil response indicated a deterioration to DSM. This is likely to be a result of the destruction of the soil fabric as the stress and strain of DSM is applied to the un‐mixed in situ soils. The results suggest that during the installation of DSM columns, a positive ground effect occurs in a similar way to other methods of ground improvement. However, further research, including additional testing following this empirical method, laboratory testing and finite 2D and 3D modelling, would be useful to quantify, in detail, how in situ soils respond and how practitioners should consider these test results in their designs. This thesis begins to evaluate how alluvial soils tend to respond to DSM. Conducting more testing on the research site, on other sites in Christchurch, and around the world, would provide a more complete data set to confirm the results of this research and enable further evaluation. Completing this additional research could help geotechnical DSM practitioners to use standardised empirical test methods to measure and confirm ground improvement rather than using existing test methods in future DSM projects. Further, demonstrating the effectiveness of empirical test methods in a DSM context is likely to enable more cost effective and efficient testing of DSM columns in future geotechnical projects.
The Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) of 2010-2011 produced large seismic moments up to Mw 7.1. These large, near-to-surface (<15 km) ruptures triggered >6,000 rockfall boulders on the Port Hills of Christchurch, many of which impacted houses and affected the livelihoods of people within the impacted area. From these disastrous and unpredicted natural events a need arose to be able to assess the areas affected by rockfall events in the future, where it is known that a rockfall is possible from a specific source outcrop but the potential boulder runout and dynamics are not understood. The distribution of rockfall deposits is largely constrained by the physical properties and processes of the boulder and its motion such as block density, shape and size, block velocity, bounce height, impact and rebound angle, as well as the properties of the substrate. Numerical rockfall models go some way to accounting for all the complex factors in an algorithm, commonly parameterised in a user interface where site-specific effects can be calibrated. Calibration of these algorithms requires thorough field checks and often experimental practises. The purpose of this project, which began immediately following the most destructive rupture of the CES (February 22, 2011), is to collate data to characterise boulder falls, and to use this information, supplemented by a set of anthropogenic boulder fall data, to perform an in-depth calibration of the three-dimensional numerical rockfall model RAMMS::Rockfall. The thesis covers the following topics: • Use of field data to calibrate RAMMS. Boulder impact trails in the loess-colluvium soils at Rapaki Bay have been used to estimate ranges of boulder velocities and bounce heights. RAMMS results replicate field data closely; it is concluded that the model is appropriate for analysing the earthquake-triggered boulder trails at Rapaki Bay, and that it can be usefully applied to rockfall trajectory and hazard assessment at this and similar sites elsewhere. • Detailed analysis of dynamic rockfall processes, interpreted from recorded boulder rolling experiments, and compared to RAMMS simulated results at the same site. Recorded rotational and translational velocities of a particular boulder show that the boulder behaves logically and dynamically on impact with different substrate types. Simulations show that seasonal changes in soil moisture alter rockfall dynamics and runout predictions within RAMMS, and adjustments are made to the calibration to reflect this; suggesting that in hazard analysis a rockfall model should be calibrated to dry rather than wet soil conditions to anticipate the most serious outcome. • Verifying the model calibration for a separate site on the Port Hills. The results of the RAMMS simulations show the effectiveness of calibration against a real data set, as well as the effectiveness of vegetation as a rockfall barrier/retardant. The results of simulations are compared using hazard maps, where the maximum runouts match well the mapped CES fallen boulder maximum runouts. The results of the simulations in terms of frequency distribution of deposit locations on the slope are also compared with those of the CES data, using the shadow angle tool to apportion slope zones. These results also replicate real field data well. Results show that a maximum runout envelope can be mapped, as well as frequency distribution of deposited boulders for hazard (and thus risk) analysis purposes. The accuracy of the rockfall runout envelope and frequency distribution can be improved by comprehensive vegetation and substrate mapping. The topics above define the scope of the project, limiting the focus to rockfall processes on the Port Hills, and implications for model calibration for the wider scientific community. The results provide a useful rockfall analysis methodology with a defensible and replicable calibration process, that has the potential to be applied to other lithologies and substrates. Its applications include a method of analysis for the selection and positioning of rockfall countermeasure design; site safety assessment for scaling and demolition works; and risk analysis and land planning for future construction in Christchurch.
Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading in large seismic events often results in pervasive and costly damage to engineering structures and lifelines, making it a critical component of engineering design. However, the complex nature of this phenomenon leads to designing for such a hazard extremely challenging and there is a clear for an improved understanding and predicting liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. The 2010-2011 Canterbury (New Zealand) Earthquakes triggered severe liquefaction-induced lateral spreading along the streams and rivers of the Christchurch region, causing extensive damage to roads, bridges, lifelines, and structures in the vicinity. The unfortunate devastation induced from lateral spreading in these events also rendered the rare opportunity to gain an improved understanding of lateral spreading displacements specific to the Christchurch region. As part of this thesis, the method of ground surveying was employed following the 4 September 2010 Darfield (Mw 7.1) and 22 February 2011 Christchurch (Mw 6.2) earthquakes at 126 locations (19 repeated) throughout Christchurch and surrounding suburbs. The method involved measurements and then summation of crack widths along a specific alignment (transect) running approximately perpendicular to the waterway to indicate typically a maximum lateral displacement at the bank and reduction of the magnitude of displacements with distance from the river. Rigorous data processing and comparisons with alternative measurements of lateral spreading were performed to verify results from field observations and validate the method of ground surveying employed, as well as highlight the complex nature of lateral spreading displacements. The welldocumented field data was scrutinized to gain an understanding of typical magnitudes and distribution patterns (distribution of displacement with distance) of lateral spreading observed in the Christchurch area. Maximum displacements ranging from less than 10 cm to over 3.5 m were encountered at the sites surveyed and the area affected by spreading ranged from less than 20 m to over 200 m from the river. Despite the highly non-uniform displacements, four characteristic distribution patterns including large, distributed ground displacements, block-type movements, large and localized ground displacements, and areas of little to no displacements were identified. Available geotechnical, seismic, and topographic data were collated at the ground surveying sites for subsequent analysis of field measurements. Two widely-used empirical models (Zhang et al. (2004), Youd et al. (2002)) were scrutinized and applied to locations in the vicinity of field measurements for comparison with model predictions. The results indicated generally poor correlation (outside a factor of two) with empirical predictions at most locations and further validated the need for an improved, analysis- based method of predicting lateral displacements that considers the many factors involved on a site-specific basis. In addition, the development of appropriate model input parameters for the Youd et al. (2002) model led to a site-specific correlation of soil behavior type index, Ic, and fines content, FC, for sites along the Avon River in Christchurch that matched up well with existing Ic – FC relationships commonly used in current practice. Lastly, a rigorous analysis was performed for 25 selected locations of ground surveying measurements along the Avon River where ground slope conditions are mild (-1 to 2%) and channel heights range from about 2 – 4.5 m. The field data was divided into categories based on the observed distribution pattern of ground displacements including: large and distributed, moderate and distributed, small to negligible, and large and localized. A systematic approach was applied to determine potential critical layers contributing to the observed displacement patterns which led to the development of characteristic profiles for each category considered. The results of these analyses outline an alternative approach to the evaluation of lateral spreading in which a detailed geotechnical analysis is used to identify the potential for large spreading displacements and likely spatial distribution patterns of spreading. Key factors affecting the observed magnitude and distribution of spreading included the thickness of the critical layer, relative density, soil type and layer continuity. It was found that the large and distributed ground displacements were associated with a thick (1.5 – 2.5 m) deposit of loose, fine to silty sand (qc1 ~4-7 MPa, Ic 1.9-2.1, qc1n_cs ~50-70) that was continuous along the bank and with distance from the river. In contrast, small to negligible displacements were characterized by an absence of or relatively thin (< 1 m), discontinuous critical layer. Characteristic features of the moderate and distributed displacements were found to be somewhere between these two extremes. The localized and large displacements showed a characteristic critical layer similar to that observed in the large and distributed sites but that was not continuous and hence leading to the localized zone of displacement. The findings presented in this thesis illustrate the highly complex nature of lateral displacements that cannot be captured in simplified models but require a robust geotechnical analysis similar to that performed for this research.
Liquefaction of sandy soil has been observed to cause significant damage to infrastructure during major earthquakes. Historical cases of liquefaction have typically occurred in sands containing some portion of fines particles, which are defined as 75μm or smaller in diameter. The effects of fines on the undrained behaviour of sand are not however fully understood, and this study therefore attempts to quantify these effects through the undrained testing of sand mixed with non-plastic fines sourced from Christchurch, New Zealand. The experimental program carried out during this study consisted of undrained monotonic and cyclic triaxial tests performed on three different mixtures of sand and fines: the Fitzgerald Bridge mixture (FBM), and two Pinnacles Sand mixtures (PSM1 and PSM2). The fines content of each host sand was systematically varied up to a maximum of 30%, with all test specimens being reconstituted using moist tamping deposition. The undrained test results from the FBM soils were interpreted using a range of different measures of initial state. When using void ratio and relative density, the addition of fines to the FBM sand caused more contractive behaviour for both monotonic and cyclic loadings. This resulted in lower strengths at the steady state of deformation, and lower liquefaction resistances. When the intergranular void ratio was used for the interpretation, the effect of additional fines was to cause less contractive response in the sand. The state parameter and state index were also used to interpret the undrained cyclic test results – these measures suggested that additional fines caused less contractive sand behaviour, the opposite to that observed when using the void ratio. This highlighted the dependency on the parameter chosen as a basis for the response comparison when determining the effects of fines, and pointed out a need to identify a measure that normalizes such effects. Based on the FBM undrained test results and interpretations, the equivalent granular void ratio, e*, was identified from the literature as a measure of initial state that normalizes the effects of fines on the undrained behaviour of sand up to a fines content of 30%. This is done through a parameter within the e* definition termed the fines influence factor, b, which quantifies the effects of fines from a value of zero (no effect) to one (same effect as sand particles). The value of b was also determined to be different when interpreting the steady state lines (bSSL) and cyclic resistance curves (bCR) respectively for a given mixture of sand and fines. The steady state lines and cyclic resistance curves of the FBM soils and a number of other sand-fines mixtures sourced from the literature were subsequently interpreted using the equivalent granular void ratio concept, with bSSL and bCR values being back-calculated from the respective test data sets. Based on these interpretations, it was concluded that e* was conceptually a useful parameter for characterizing and quantifying the effects of fines on the undrained behaviour of sand, assuming the fines influence factor value could be derived. To allow prediction of the fines influence factor values, bSSL and bCR were correlated with material and depositional properties of the presented sand-fines mixtures. It was found that as the size of the fines particles relative to the sand particles became smaller, the values of bSSL and bCR reduced, indicating lower effect of fines. The same trend was also observed as the angularity of the sand particles increased. The depositional method was found to influence the value of bCR, due to the sensitivity of cyclic loading to initial soil fabric. This led to bSSL being used as a reference for the effect of fines, with specimens prepared by moist tamping having bCR > bSSL, and specimens prepared by slurry deposition having bCR < bSSL. Finally the correlations of the fines influence factor values with material and depositional properties were used to define the simplified estimation method – a procedure capable of predicting the approximate steady state lines and cyclic resistance curves of a sand as the non-plastic fines content is increased up to 30%. The method was critically reviewed based on the undrained test results of the PSM1 and PSM2 soils. This review suggested the method could accurately predict undrained response curves as the fines content was raised, based on the PSM1 test results. It also however identified some key issues with the method, such as the inability to accurately predict the responses of highly non-uniform soils, a lack of consideration for the entire particle size distribution of a soil, and the fact the errors in the prediction of bSSL carry through into the prediction of bCR. Lastly some areas of further investigation relating to the method were highlighted, including the need to verify the method through testing of sandy soils sourced from outside the Christchurch area, and the need to correlate the value of bCR with additional soil fabrics / depositional methods.
In this thesis, focus is given to develop methodologies for rapidly estimating specific components of loss and downtime functions. The thesis proposes methodologies for deriving loss functions by (i) considering individual component performance; (ii) grouping them as per their performance characteristics; and (iii) applying them to similar building usage categories. The degree of variation in building stock and understanding their characteristics are important factors to be considered in the loss estimation methodology and the field surveys carried out to collect data add value to the study. To facilitate developing ‘downtime’ functions, this study investigates two key components of downtime: (i) time delay from post-event damage assessment of properties; and (ii) time delay in settling the insurance claims lodged. In these two areas, this research enables understanding of critical factors that influence certain aspects of downtime and suggests approaches to quantify those factors. By scrutinising the residential damage insurance claims data provided by the Earthquake Commission (EQC) for the 2010- 2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), this work provides insights into various processes of claims settlement, the time taken to complete them and the EQC loss contributions to building stock in Christchurch city and Canterbury region. The study has shown diligence in investigating the EQC insurance claim data obtained from the CES to get new insights and build confidence in the models developed and the results generated. The first stage of this research develops contribution functions (probabilistic relationships between the expected losses for a wide range of building components and the building’s maximum response) for common types of claddings used in New Zealand buildings combining the probabilistic density functions (developed using the quantity of claddings measured from Christchurch buildings), fragility functions (obtained from the published literature) and cost functions (developed based on inputs from builders) through Monte Carlo simulations. From the developed contribution functions, glazing, masonry veneer, monolithic and precast concrete cladding systems are found to incur 50% loss at inter-storey drift levels equal to 0.027, 0.003, 0.005 and 0.011, respectively. Further, the maximum expected cladding loss for glazing, masonry veneer, monolithic, precast concrete cladding systems are found to be 368.2, 331.9, 365.0, and 136.2 NZD per square meter of floor area, respectively. In the second stage of this research, a detailed cost breakdown of typical buildings designed and built for different purposes is conducted. The contributions of structural and non- structural components to the total building cost are compared for buildings of different usages, and based on the similar ratios of non-structural performance group costs to the structural performance group cost, four-building groups are identified; (i) Structural components dominant group: outdoor sports, stadiums, parkings and long-span warehouses, (ii) non- structural drift-sensitive components dominant group: houses, single-storey suburban buildings (all usages), theatres/halls, workshops and clubhouses, (iii) non-structural acceleration- sensitive components dominant group: hospitals, research labs, museums and retail/cold stores, and (iv) apartments, hotels, offices, industrials, indoor sports, classrooms, devotionals and aquariums. By statistically analysing the cost breakdowns, performance group weighting factors are proposed for structural, and acceleration-sensitive and drift-sensitive non-structural components for all four building groups. Thus proposed building usage groupings and corresponding weighting factors facilitate rapid seismic loss estimation of any type of building given the EDPs at storey levels are known. A model for the quantification of post-earthquake inspection duration is developed in the third stage of this research. Herein, phase durations for the three assessment phases (one rapid impact and two rapid building) are computed using the number of buildings needing inspections, the number of engineers involved in inspections and a phase duration coefficient (which considers the median building inspection time, efficiency of engineer and the number of engineers involved in each assessment teams). The proposed model can be used: (i) by national/regional authorities to decide the length of the emergency period following a major earthquake, and estimate the number of engineers required to conduct a post-earthquake inspection within the desired emergency period, and (ii) to quantify the delay due to inspection for the downtime modelling framework. The final stage of this research investigates the repair costs and insurance claim settlement time for damaged residential buildings in the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. Based on the EQC claim settlement process, claims are categorized into three groups; (i) Small Claims: claims less than NZD15,000 which were settled through cash payment, (ii) Medium Claims: claims less than NZD100,000 which were managed through Canterbury Home Repair Programme (CHRP), and (iii) Large Claims: claims above NZD100,000 which were managed by an insurance provider. The regional loss ratio (RLR) for greater Christchurch for three events inducing shakings of approximate seismic intensities 6, 7, and 8 are found to be 0.013, 0.066, and 0.171, respectively. Furthermore, the claim duration (time between an event and the claim lodgement date), assessment duration (time between the claim lodgement day and the most recent assessment day), and repair duration (time between the most recent assessment day and the repair completion day) for the insured residential buildings in the region affected by the Canterbury earthquake sequence is found to be in the range of 0.5-4 weeks, 1.5- 5 months, and 1-3 years, respectively. The results of this phase will provide useful information to earthquake engineering researchers working on seismic risk/loss and insurance modelling.
Following the 22nd February 2011, Mw 6.2 earthquake located along a previously unknown fault beneath the Port Hills of Christchurch, surface cracking was identified in contour parallel locations within fill material at Quarry Road on the lower slopes of Mount Pleasant. GNS Science, in the role of advisor to the Christchurch City Council, concluded that these cracks were a part of a potential rotational mass movement (named zone 11A) within the fill and airfall loess material present. However, a lack of field evidence for slope instability and an absence of laboratory geotechnical data on which slope stability analysis was based, suggested this conclusion is potentially incorrect. It was hypothesised that ground cracking was in fact due to earthquake shaking, and not mass movement within the slope, thus forming the basis of this study. Three soil units were identified during surface and subsurface investigations at Quarry Road: fill derived from quarry operations in the adjacent St. Andrews Quarry (between 1893 and 1913), a buried topsoil, and underlying in-situ airfall loess. The fill material was identified by the presence of organic-rich topsoil “clods” that were irregular in both size (∼10 – 200 mm) and shape, with variable thicknesses of 1 – 10 m. Maximum thickness, as indicated by drill holes and geophysical survey lines, was identified below 6 Quarry Road and 7 The Brae where it is thought to infill a pre-existing gully formed in the underlying airfall loess. Bearing strength of the fill consistently exceeded 300 kPa ultimate below ∼500 mm depth. The buried topsoil was 200 – 300 mm thick, and normally displayed a lower bearing strength when encountered, but not below 300 kPa ultimate (3 – 11 blows per 100mm or ≥100 kPa allowable). In-situ airfall loess stood vertically in outcrop due to its characteristic high dry strength and also showed Scala penetrometer values of 6 – 20+ blows per 100 mm (450 – ≥1000 kPa ultimate). All soils were described as being moist to dry during subsurface investigations, with no groundwater table identified during any investigation into volcanic bedrock. In-situ moisture contents were established using bulk disturbed samples from hand augers and test pitting. Average moisture contents were low at 9% within the fill, 11 % within the buried topsoil, and 8% within the airfall loess: all were below the associated average plastic limit of 17, 15, and 16, respectively, determined during Atterberg limit analysis. Particle size distributions, identified using the sieve and pipette method, were similar between the three soil units with 11 – 20 % clay, 62 – 78 % silt, and 11 – 20 % fine sand. Using these results and the NZGS soil classification, the loess derived fill and in-situ airfall loess are termed SILT with some clay and sand, and the buried topsoil is SILT with minor clay and sand. Dispersivity of the units was found using the Emerson crumb test, which established that the fill can be non- to completely dispersive (score 0 – 4). The buried topsoil was always non-dispersive (score 0), and airfall loess completely dispersive (score 4). Values for cohesion (c) and internal friction angle (φ) of the three soil units were established using the direct shear box at field moisture contents. Results showed all soil units had high shear strengths at the moisture contents tested (c = 18 – 24 kPa and φ = 42 – 50°), with samples behaving in a brittle fashion. Moisture content was artificially increased to 16% within the buried topsoil, which reduced the shear strength (c = 10 kPa, φ = 18°) and allowed it to behave plastically. Observational information indicating stability at Quarry Road included: shallow, discontinuous, cracks that do not display vertical offset; no scarp features or compressional zones typical of landsliding; no tilted or deformed structures; no movement in inclinometers; no basal shear zone identified in logged core to 20 m depth; low field moisture contents; no groundwater table; and high soil strength using Scala penetrometers. Limit equilibrium analysis of the slope was conducted using Rocscience software Slide 5.0 to verify the slope stability identified by observational methods. Friction, cohesion, and density values determined during laboratory were input into the two slope models investigated. Results gave minimum static factor of safety values for translational (along buried topsoil) and rotational (in the fill) slides of 2.4 – 4.2. Sensitivity of the slope to reduced shear strength parameters was analysed using c = 10 kPa and φ = 18° for the translational buried topsoil plane, and a cohesion of 0 kPa within the fill for the rotational plane. The only situation that gave a factor of safety <1.0 was in nonengineered fill at 0.5 m depth. Pseudostatic analysis based on previous peak ground acceleration (PGA) values for the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence, and predicted PGAs for future Alpine Fault and Hope Fault earthquakes established minimum factor of safety values between 1.2 and 3.3. Yield acceleration PGAs were computed to be between 0.8g and 1.6g. Based on all information gathered, the cracking at Quarry Road is considered to be shallow deformation in response to earthquake shaking, and not due to deep-seated landsliding. It is recommended that the currently bare site be managed by smoothing the land, installing contour drainage, and bioremediation of the surface soils to reduce surface water infiltration and runoff. Extensive earthworks, including removal of the fill, are considered unnecessary. Any future replacement of housing would be subject to site-specific investigations, and careful foundation design based on those results.
The research is funded by Callaghan Innovation (grant number MAIN1901/PROP-69059-FELLOW-MAIN) and the Ministry of Transport New Zealand in partnership with Mainfreight Limited. Need – The freight industry is facing challenges related to climate change, including natural hazards and carbon emissions. These challenges impact the efficiency of freight networks, increase costs, and negatively affect delivery times. To address these challenges, freight logistics modelling should consider multiple variables, such as natural hazards, sustainability, and emission reduction strategies. Freight operations are complex, involving various factors that contribute to randomness, such as the volume of freight being transported, the location of customers, and truck routes. Conventional methods have limitations in simulating a large number of variables. Hence, there is a need to develop a method that can incorporate multiple variables and support freight sustainable development. Method - A minimal viable model (MVM) method was proposed to elicit tacit information from industrial clients for building a minimally sufficient simulation model at the early modelling stages. The discrete-event simulation (DES) method was applied using Arena® software to create simulation models for the Auckland and Christchurch corridor, including regional pick-up and delivery (PUD) models, Christchurch city delivery models, and linehaul models. Stochastic variables in freight operations such as consignment attributes, customer locations, and truck routes were incorporated in the simulation. The geographic information system (GIS) software ArcGIS Pro® was used to identify and analyse industrial data. The results obtained from the GIS software were applied to create DES models. Life cycle assessment (LCA) models were developed for both diesel and battery electric (BE) trucks to compare their life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and total cost of ownership (TCO) and support GHG emissions reduction. The line-haul model also included natural hazards in several scenarios, and the simulation was used to forecast the stock level of Auckland and Christchurch depots in response to each corresponding scenario. Results – DES is a powerful technique that can be employed to simulate and evaluate freight operations that exhibit high levels of variability, such as regional pickup and delivery (PUD) and linehaul. Through DES, it becomes possible to analyse multiple factors within freight operations, including transportation modes, routes, scheduling, and processing times, thereby offering valuable insights into the performance, efficiency, and reliability of the system. In addition, GIS is a useful tool for analysing and visualizing spatial data in freight operations. This is exemplified by their ability to simulate the travelling salesman problem (TSP) and conduct cluster analysis. Consequently, the integration of GIS into DES modelling is essential for improving the accuracy and reliability of freight operations analysis. The outcomes of the simulation were utilised to evaluate the ecological impact of freight transport by performing emission calculations and generating low-carbon scenarios to identify approaches for reducing the carbon footprint. LCA models were developed based on simulation results. Results showed that battery-electric trucks (BE) produced more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the cradle phase due to battery manufacturing but substantially less GHG emissions in the use phase because of New Zealand's mostly renewable energy sources. While the transition to BE could significantly reduce emissions, the financial aspect is not compelling, as the total cost of ownership (TCO) for the BE truck was about the same for ten years, despite a higher capital investment for the BE. Moreover, external incentives are necessary to justify a shift to BE trucks. By using simulation methods, the effectiveness of response plans for natural hazards can be evaluated, and the system's vulnerabilities can be identified and mitigated to minimize the risk of disruption. Simulation models can also be utilized to simulate adaptation plans to enhance the system's resilience to natural disasters. Novel contributions – The study employed a combination of DES and GIS methods to incorporate a large number of stochastic variables and driver’s decisions into freight logistics modelling. Various realistic operational scenarios were simulated, including customer clustering and PUD truck allocation. This showed that complex pickup and delivery routes with high daily variability can be represented using a model of roads and intersections. Geographic regions of high customer density, along with high daily variability could be represented by a two-tier architecture. The method could also identify delivery runs for a whole city, which has potential usefulness in market expansion to new territories. In addition, a model was developed to address carbon emissions and total cost of ownership of battery electric trucks. This showed that the transition was not straightforward because the economics were not compelling, and that policy interventions – a variety were suggested - could be necessary to encourage the transition to decarbonised freight transport. A model was developed to represent the effect of natural disasters – such as earthquake and climate change – on road travel and detour times in the line haul freight context for New Zealand. From this it was possible to predict the effects on stock levels for a variety of disruption scenarios (ferry interruption, road detours). Results indicated that some centres rather than others may face higher pressure and longer-term disturbance after the disaster subsided. Remedies including coastal shipping were modelled and shown to have the potential to limit the adverse effects. A philosophical contribution was the development of a methodology to adapt the agile method into the modelling process. This has the potential to improve the clarification of client objectives and the validity of the resulting model.
