This thesis presents the application of data science techniques, especially machine learning, for the development of seismic damage and loss prediction models for residential buildings. Current post-earthquake building damage evaluation forms are developed for a particular country in mind. The lack of consistency hinders the comparison of building damage between different regions. A new paper form has been developed to address the need for a global universal methodology for post-earthquake building damage assessment. The form was successfully trialled in the street ‘La Morena’ in Mexico City following the 2017 Puebla earthquake. Aside from developing a framework for better input data for performance based earthquake engineering, this project also extended current techniques to derive insights from post-earthquake observations. Machine learning (ML) was applied to seismic damage data of residential buildings in Mexico City following the 2017 Puebla earthquake and in Christchurch following the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES). The experience showcased that it is readily possible to develop empirical data only driven models that can successfully identify key damage drivers and hidden underlying correlations without prior engineering knowledge. With adequate maintenance, such models have the potential to be rapidly and easily updated to allow improved damage and loss prediction accuracy and greater ability for models to be generalised. For ML models developed for the key events of the CES, the model trained using data from the 22 February 2011 event generalised the best for loss prediction. This is thought to be because of the large number of instances available for this event and the relatively limited class imbalance between the categories of the target attribute. For the CES, ML highlighted the importance of peak ground acceleration (PGA), building age, building size, liquefaction occurrence, and soil conditions as main factors which affected the losses in residential buildings in Christchurch. ML also highlighted the influence of liquefaction on the buildings losses related to the 22 February 2011 event. Further to the ML model development, the application of post-hoc methodologies was shown to be an effective way to derive insights for ML algorithms that are not intrinsically interpretable. Overall, these provide a basis for the development of ‘greybox’ ML models.
Whole document is available to authenticated members of The University of Auckland until Feb. 2014. The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are often reluctant to adopt mitigation measures required to reduce earthquake losses. The magnitude of building collapses from the recent Christchurch earthquakes in New Zealand shows that owners of earthquake prone buildings (EPBs) are not adopting appropriate risk mitigation measures in their buildings. Owners of EPBs are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to seismic risks. This research investigates how to increase the likelihood of building owners undertaking appropriate mitigation actions that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disaster. A sequential two-phase mixed methods approach was adopted for the research investigation. Multiple case studies approach was adopted in the first qualitative phase, followed by the second quantitative research phase that includes the development and testing of a framework. The research findings reveal four categories of critical obstacles to building owners‘ decision to adopt earthquake loss prevention measures. These obstacles include perception, sociological, economic and institutional impediments. Intrinsic and extrinsic interventions are proposed as incentives for overcoming these barriers. The intrinsic motivators include using information communication networks such as mass media, policy entrepreneurs and community engagement in risk mitigation. Extrinsic motivators comprise the use of four groups of incentives namely; financial, regulatory, technological and property market incentives. These intrinsic and extrinsic interventions are essential for enhancing property owners‘ decisions to voluntarily adopt appropriate earthquake mitigation measures. The study concludes by providing specific recommendations that earthquake risk mitigation managers, city councils and stakeholders involved in risk mitigation in New Zealand and other seismic risk vulnerable countries could consider in earthquake risk management. Local authorities could adopt the framework developed in this study to demonstrate a combination of incentives and motivators that yield best-valued outcomes. Consequently, actions can be more specific and outcomes more effective. The implementation of these recommendations could offer greater reasons for the stakeholders and public to invest in building New Zealand‘s built environment resilience to earthquake disasters.
The 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes, which involved widespread damage during the February 2011 event and ongoing aftershocks near the Christchurch Central Business District, left this community with more than $NZD 40 billion in losses (~20 % GDP), demolition of approximately 60 % of multi-storey concrete buildings (3 storeys and up), and closure of the core business district for over 2 years. The aftermath of the earthquake sequence has revealed unique issues and complexities for the owners of commercial and multi-storey residential buildings in relation to unexpected technical, legal, and financial challenges when making decisions regarding the future of their buildings impacted by the earthquakes. The paper presents a framework to understand the factors influencing post-earthquake decisions (repair or demolish) on multi-storey concrete buildings in Christchurch. The study, conducted in 2014, includes in-depth investigations on 15 case-study buildings using 27 semi-structured interviews with various property owners, property managers, insurers, engineers, and government authorities in New Zealand. The interviews revealed insights regarding the multitude of factors influencing post-earthquake decisions and losses. As expected, the level of damage and repairability (cost to repair) generally dictated the course of action. There is strong evidence, however, that other variables have significantly influenced the decision on a number of buildings, such as insurance, business strategies, perception of risks, building regulations (and compliance costs), and government decisions. The decision-making process for each building is complex and unique, not solely driven by structural damage. Furthermore, the findings have put the spotlight on insurance policy wordings and the paradoxical effect of insurance on the recovery of Christchurch, leading to other challenges and issues going forward.
Terminus calving of icebergs is a common mass-loss mechanism from water-terminating glaciers globally, including the lake-calving glaciers in New Zealand’s central Southern Alps. Calving rates can increase dramatically in response to increases in ice velocity and/or retreat of the glacier margin. Here, we describe a large calving event (c. 4.5 × 106 m3) observed at Tasman Glacier, which initiated around 30 min after the MW 6.2 Christchurch earthquake of 22 February 2011. The volume of this calving event was equalled or exceeded only once in a subsequent 13-month-long study. While the temporal association with the earthquake remains intriguing, the effects of any preconditioning factors remain unclear.
In 2010 and 2011, Aotearoa New Zealand was hit by a number of major disasters involving loss of human life and severe disruption to social, ecological and economic wellbeing. The Pike River mine explosions were closely followed by a sequence of major earthquakes in Christchurch, seismic events that have permanently altered the lives of thousands of people in our third largest city, the closure of the central business district and the effective abandonment of whole residential areas. In early October 2011, the ship, Rena, grounded on a reef off the port of Tauranga and threatened a major oil spill throughout the Bay of Plenty, where local communities with spiritual and cultural connections to the land depend on sea food as well as thrive on tourism. The Council for Social Work Education Aotearoa New Zealand (CSWEANZ), representing all the Schools of Social Work in New Zealand, held a ‘Disaster Curriculum’ day in November 2011, at which social workers and Civil Defence leaders involved in the Christchurch earthquakes, the Rena Disaster, Fiji floods and the Boxing Day tsunami presented their narrative experience of disaster response and recovery. Workshops discussed and identified core elements that participants considered vital to a social work curriculum that would enable social work graduates in a range of community and cultural settings to respond in safe, creative and informed ways. We present our core ideas for a social work disaster curriculum and consider a wide range of educational content based on existing knowledge bases and new content within a disaster framework. http://www.swsd-stockholm-2012.org/
The seismic tremor that shook Christchurch on February 22, 2011, not only shattered buildings but also the spirit of the city’s residents. Amidst the ruins, this design-focused thesis unravels two intertwining narratives, each essential to the city’s resurrection. At its core, this thesis probes the preservation of Christchurch’s memory and character, meticulously chronicling the lost heritage architecture and the subsequent urban metamorphosis. Beyond bricks and mortar, it also confronts the silent aftershocks - the pervasive mental health challenges stemming from personal losses and the disfigured cityscape. As a native of Christchurch, intimately connected to its fabric, my lens reflects not just on the architectural reconstruction but also on the emotional reconstruction. My experience as an autistic individual, a recently discovered facet of my identity, infuses this design journey with a distinct prism through which I perceive and interact with the world. The colourful sketches that drive the design process aren’t mere illustrations but manifestations of my interpretation of spaces and concepts, evoking joy and vitality—a testament to embracing diversity in design. Drawing parallels between healing my own traumas with my colourful and joyful neurodivergent worldview, I’ve woven this concept into proposals aimed at healing the city through whimsy, joy, and vibrant colours. Personal experiences during and post-earthquakes profoundly shape my design proposals. Having navigated the labyrinth of my own mental health amid the altered cityscape, I seek avenues for reconciliation, both personal and communal. The vibrant sketches and designs presented in this thesis encapsulate this vision—a fusion of vivid, unconventional interpretations and a dedication to preserving the essence of the original cityscape while still encouraging movement into the future.
Disasters, either man-made or natural, are characterised by a multiplicity of factors including loss of property, life, environmental degradation, and psychosocial malfunction of the affected community. Although much research has been undertaken on proactive disaster management to help reduce the impacts of natural and man-made disasters, many challenges still remain. In particular, the desire to re-house the affected as quickly as possible can affect long-term recovery if a considered approach is not adopted. Promoting recovery activities, coordination, and information sharing at national and international levels are crucial to avoid duplication. Mannakkara and Wilkinson’s (2014) modified “Build Back Better” (BBB) concept aims for better resilience by incorporating key resilience elements in post-disaster restoration. This research conducted an investigation into the effectiveness of BBB in the recovery process after the 2010–2011 earthquakes in greater Christchurch, New Zealand. The BBB’s impact was assessed in terms of its five key components: built environment, natural environment, social environment, economic environment, and implementation process. This research identified how the modified BBB propositions can assist in disaster risk reduction in the future, and used both qualitative and quantitative data from both the Christchurch and Waimakariri recovery processes. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key officials from the Christchurch Earthquake Recovery Authority, and city councils, and supplemented by reviewing of the relevant literature. Collecting data from both qualitative and quantitative sources enabled triangulation of the data. The interviewees had directly participated in all phases of the recovery, which helped the researcher gain a clear understanding of the recovery process. The findings led to the identification of best practices from the Christchurch and Waimakariri recovery processes and underlined the effectiveness of the BBB approach for all recovery efforts. This study contributed an assessment tool to aid the measurement of resilience achieved through BBB indicators. This tool provides systematic and structured approach to measure the performance of ongoing recovery.
As damage and loss caused by natural hazards have increased worldwide over the past several decades, it is important for governments and aid agencies to have tools that enable effective post-disaster livelihood recovery to create self-sufficiency for the affected population. This study introduces a framework of critical components that constitute livelihood recovery and the critical factors that lead to people’s livelihood recovery. A comparative case study is employed in this research, combined with questionnaire surveys and interviews with those communities affected by large earthquakes in Lushan, China and in Christchurch and Kaikōura, New Zealand. In Lushan, China, a framework with four livelihood components was established, namely, housing, employment, wellbeing and external assistance. Respondents considered recovery of their housing to be the most essential element for livelihood diversification. External assistance was also rated highly in assisting with their livelihood recovery. Family ties and social connections seemed to have played a larger role than that of government agencies and NGOs. However, the recovery of livelihood cannot be fully achieved without wellbeing aspects being taken into account, and people believed that quality of life and their physical and mental health were essential for livelihood restoration. In Christchurch, New Zealand, the identified livelihood components were validated through in-depth interviews. The results showed that the above framework presenting what constitutes successful livelihood recovery could also be applied in Christchurch. This study also identified the critical factors to affect livelihood recovery following the Lushan and Kaikōura earthquakes, and these include community safety, availability of family support, level of community cohesion, long-term livelihood support, external housing recovery support, level of housing recovery and availability of health and wellbeing support. The framework developed will provide guidance for policy makers and aid agencies to prioritise their strategies and initiatives in assisting people to reinstate their livelihood in a timely manner post-disaster. It will also assist the policy makers and practitioners in China and New Zealand by setting an agenda for preparing for livelihood recovery in non-urgent times so the economic impact and livelihood disruption of those affected can be effectively mitigated.
Industrial steel storage pallet racking systems are used extensively worldwide to store goods. Forty percent of all goods are stored on storage racks at some time during their manufactureto- consumption life. In 2017, goods worth USD 16.5 billion were carried on cold-formed steel racking systems in seismically active regions worldwide. Historically, these racks are particularly vulnerable to collapse in severe earthquakes. In the 2010/2011 Christchurch earthquakes, around NZD 100 million of pallet racking stored goods were lost, with much greater associated economic losses due to disruptions to the national supply chain. A novel component, the friction slipper baseplate, has been designed and developed to very significantly improve the seismic performance of a selective pallet racking system in both the cross-aisle and the down-aisle directions. This thesis documents the whole progress of the development of the friction slipper baseplate from the design concept development to experimental verification and incorporation into the seismic design procedure for selective pallet racking systems. The test results on the component joint tests, full-scale pull-over and snap-back tests and fullscale shaking table tests of a steel storage racking system are presented. The extensive experimental observations show that the friction slipper baseplate exhibits the best seismic performance in both the cross-aisle and the down-aisle directions compared with all the other base-connections tested. It protects the rack frame and concrete floor from damage, reduces the risk of overturning in the cross-aisle direction, and minimises the damage at beam-end connectors in the down-aisle direction, without sustaining damage to the connection itself. Moreover, this high level of seismic performance can be delivered by a simple and costeffective baseplate with almost no additional cost. The significantly reduced internal force and frame acceleration response enable the more cost-effective and safer design of the pallet racking system with minimal extra cost for the baseplate. The friction slipper baseplate also provides enhanced protection to the column base from operational impact damage compared with other seismic resisting and standard baseplates.
Reinforced concrete buildings that satisfied modern seismic design criteria generally behaved as expected during the recent Canterbury and Kaikoura earthquakes in New Zealand, forming plastic hinges in intended locations. While this meant that life-safety performance objectives were met, widespread demolition and heavy economic losses took place in the aftermath of the earthquakes.The Christchurch central business district was particularly hard hit, with over 60% of the multistorey reinforced concrete buildings being demolished. A lack of knowledge on the post-earthquake residual capacity of reinforced concrete buildings was a contributing factor to the mass demolition.Many aspects related to the assessment of earthquake-damaged reinforced concrete buildings require further research. This thesis focusses on improving the state of knowledge on the post earthquakeresidual capacity and reparability of moderately damaged plastic hinges, with an emphasis on plastic hinges typical of modern moment frame structures. The repair method focussed on is epoxy injection of cracks and patching of spalled concrete. A targeted test program on seventeen nominally identical large-scale ductile reinforced concrete beams, three of which were repaired by epoxy injection following initial damaging loadings, was conducted to support these objectives. Test variables included the loading protocol, the loading rate, and the level of restraint to axial elongation.The information that can be gleaned from post-earthquake damage surveys is investigated. It is shown that residual crack widths are dependent on residual deformations, and are not necessarily indicative of the maximum rotation demands or the plastic hinge residual capacity. The implications of various other types of damage typical of beam and column plastic hinges are also discussed.Experimental data are used to demonstrate that the strength and deformation capacity of plastic hinges with modern seismic detailing are often unreduced as a result of moderate earthquake induced damage, albeit with certain exceptions. Special attention is given to the effects of prior yielding of the longitudinal reinforcement, accounting for the low-cycle fatigue and strain ageing phenomena. A material-level testing program on the low-cycle fatigue behaviour of grade 300E reinforcing steel was conducted to supplement the data available in the literature.A reduction in stiffness, relative to the initial secant stiffness to yield, occurs due to moderate plastic hinging damage. This reduction in stiffness is shown to be correlated with the ductility demand,and a proposed model gives a conservative lower-bound estimate of the residual stiffness following an arbitrary earthquake-type loading. Repair by epoxy injection is shown to be effective in restoring the majority of stiffness to plastic hinges in beams. Epoxy injection is also shown to have implications for the residual strength and elongation characteristics of repaired plastic hinges.
The full scale, in-situ investigations of instrumented buildings present an excellent opportunity to observe their dynamic response in as-built environment, which includes all the real physical properties of a structure under study and its surroundings. The recorded responses can be used for better understanding of behavior of structures by extracting their dynamic characteristics. It is significantly valuable to examine the behavior of buildings under different excitation scenarios. The trends in dynamic characteristics, such as modal frequencies and damping ratios, thus developed can provide quantitative data for the variations in the behavior of buildings. Moreover, such studies provide invaluable information for the development and calibration of realistic models for the prediction of seismic response of structures in model updating and structural health monitoring studies. This thesis comprises two parts. The first part presents an evaluation of seismic responses of two instrumented three storey RC buildings under a selection of 50 earthquakes and behavioral changes after Ms=7.1 Darfield (2010) and Ms=6.3 Christchurch (2011) earthquakes for an instrumented eight story RC building. The dynamic characteristics of the instrumented buildings were identified using state-of-the-art N4SID system identification technique. Seismic response trends were developed for the three storey instrumented buildings in light of the identified frequencies and the peak response accelerations (PRA). Frequencies were observed to decrease with excitation level while no trends are discernible for the damping ratios. Soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects were also determined to ascertain their contribution in the seismic response. For the eight storey building, it was found through system identification that strong nonlinearities in the structural response occurred and manifested themselves in all identified natural frequencies of the building that exhibited a marked decrease during the strong motion duration compared to the pre-Darfield earthquakes. Evidence of foundation rocking was also found that led to a slight decrease in the identified modal frequencies. Permanent stiffness loss was also observed after the strong motion events. The second part constitutes developing and calibrating finite element model (FEM) of the instrumented three storey RC building with a shear core. A three dimensional FEM of the building is developed in stages to analyze the effect of structural, non-structural components (NSCs) and SSI on the building dynamics. Further to accurately replicate the response of the building following the response trends developed in the first part of the thesis, sensitivity based model updating technique was applied. The FEMs were calibrated by tuning the updating parameters which are stiffnesses of concrete, NSCs and soil. The updating parameters were found to generally follow decreasing trends with the excitation level. Finally, the updated FEM was used in time history analyses to assess the building seismic performance at the serviceability limit state shaking. Overall, this research will contribute towards better understanding and prediction of the behavior of structures subjected to ground motion.
In September 2010 and February 2011 the Canterbury region of New Zealand was struck by two powerful earthquakes, registering magnitude 7.1 and 6.3 respectively on the Richter scale. The second earthquake was centred 10 kilometres south-east of the centre of Christchurch (the region’s capital and New Zealand’s third most populous urban area, with approximately 360,000 residents) at a depth of five kilometres. 185 people were killed, making it the second deadliest natural disaster in New Zealand’s history. (66 people were killed in the collapse of one building alone, the six-storey Canterbury Television building.) The earthquake occurred during the lunch hour, increasing the number of people killed on footpaths and in buses and cars by falling debris. In addition to the loss of life, the earthquake caused catastrophic damage to both land and buildings in Christchurch, particularly in the central business district. Many commercial and residential buildings collapsed in the tremors; others were damaged through soil liquefaction and surface flooding. Over 1,000 buildings in the central business district were eventually demolished because of safety concerns, and an estimated 70,000 people had to leave the city after the earthquakes because their homes were uninhabitable. The New Zealand Government declared a state of national emergency, which stayed in force for ten weeks. In 2014 the Government estimated that the rebuild process would cost NZ$40 billion (approximately US$27.3 billion, a cost equivalent to 17% of New Zealand’s annual GDP). Economists now estimate it could take the New Zealand economy between 50 and 100 years to recover. The earthquakes generated tens of thousands of insurance claims, both against private home insurance companies and against the New Zealand Earthquake Commission, a government-owned statutory body which provides primary natural disaster insurance to residential property owners in New Zealand. These ranged from claims for hundreds of millions of dollars concerning the local port and university to much smaller claims in respect of the thousands of residential homes damaged. Many of these insurance claims resulted in civil proceedings, caused by disputes about policy cover, the extent of the damage and the cost and/or methodology of repairs, as well as failures in communication and delays caused by the overwhelming number of claims. Disputes were complicated by the fact that the Earthquake Commission provides primary insurance cover up to a monetary cap, with any additional costs to be met by the property owner’s private insurer. Litigation funders and non-lawyer claims advocates who took a percentage of any insurance proceeds also soon became involved. These two factors increased the number of parties involved in any given claim and introduced further obstacles to resolution. Resolving these disputes both efficiently and fairly was (and remains) central to the rebuild process. This created an unprecedented challenge for the justice system in Christchurch (and New Zealand), exacerbated by the fact that the Christchurch High Court building was itself damaged in the earthquakes, with the Court having to relocate to temporary premises. (The High Court hears civil claims exceeding NZ$200,000 in value (approximately US$140,000) or those involving particularly complex issues. Most of the claims fell into this category.) This paper will examine the response of the Christchurch High Court to this extraordinary situation as a case study in innovative judging practices and from a jurisprudential perspective. In 2011, following the earthquakes, the High Court made a commitment that earthquake-related civil claims would be dealt with as swiftly as the Court's resources permitted. In May 2012, it commenced a special “Earthquake List” to manage these cases. The list (which is ongoing) seeks to streamline the trial process, resolve quickly claims with precedent value or involving acute personal hardship or large numbers of people, facilitate settlement and generally work proactively and innovatively with local lawyers, technical experts and other stakeholders. For example, the Court maintains a public list (in spreadsheet format, available online) with details of all active cases before the Court, listing the parties and their lawyers, summarising the facts and identifying the legal issues raised. It identifies cases in which issues of general importance have been or will be decided, with the expressed purpose being to assist earthquake litigants and those contemplating litigation and to facilitate communication among parties and lawyers. This paper will posit the Earthquake List as an attempt to implement innovative judging techniques to provide efficient yet just legal processes, and which can be examined from a variety of jurisprudential perspectives. One of these is as a case study in the well-established debate about the dialogic relationship between public decisions and private settlement in the rule of law. Drawing on the work of scholars such as Hazel Genn, Owen Fiss, David Luban, Carrie Menkel-Meadow and Judith Resnik, it will explore the tension between the need to develop the law through the doctrine of precedent and the need to resolve civil disputes fairly, affordably and expeditiously. It will also be informed by the presenter’s personal experience of the interplay between reported decisions and private settlement in post-earthquake Christchurch through her work mediating insurance disputes. From a methodological perspective, this research project itself gives rise to issues suitable for discussion at the Law and Society Annual Meeting. These include the challenges in empirical study of judges, working with data collected by the courts and statistical analysis of the legal process in reference to settlement. September 2015 marked the five-year anniversary of the first Christchurch earthquake. There remains widespread dissatisfaction amongst Christchurch residents with the ongoing delays in resolving claims, particularly insurers, and the rebuild process. There will continue to be challenges in Christchurch for years to come, both from as-yet unresolved claims but also because of the possibility of a new wave of claims arising from poor quality repairs. Thus, a final purpose of presenting this paper at the 2016 Meeting is to gain the benefit of other scholarly perspectives and experiences of innovative judging best practice, with a view to strengthening and improving the judicial processes in Christchurch. This Annual Meeting of the Law and Society Association in New Orleans is a particularly appropriate forum for this paper, given the recent ten year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina and the plenary session theme of “Natural and Unnatural Disasters – human crises and law’s response.” The presenter has a personal connection with this theme, as she was a Fulbright scholar from New Zealand at New York University in 2005/2006 and participated in the student volunteer cleanup effort in New Orleans following Katrina. http://www.lawandsociety.org/NewOrleans2016/docs/2016_Program.pdf
