Disasters are often followed by a large-scale stimulus supporting the economy through the built environment, which can last years. During this time, official economic indicators tend to suggest the economy is doing well, but as activity winds down, the sentiment can quickly change. In response to the damaging 2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand, the regional economy outpaced national economic growth rates for several years during the rebuild. The repair work on the built environment created years of elevated building activity. However, after the peak of the rebuilding activity, as economic and employment growth retracts below national growth, we are left with the question of how the underlying economy performs during large scale stimulus activity in the built environment. This paper assesses the performance of the underlying economy by quantifying the usual, demand-driven level of building activity at this time. Applying an Input–Output approach and excluding the economic benefit gained from the investment stimulus reveals the performance of the underlying economy. The results reveal a strong growing underlying economy, and while convergence was expected as the stimulus slowed down, the results found that growth had already crossed over for some time. The results reveal that the investment stimulus provides an initial 1.5% to 2% growth buffer from the underlying economy before the growth rates cross over. This supports short-term economic recovery and enables the underlying economy to transition away from a significant rebuild stimulus. Once the growth crosses over, five years after the disaster, economic growth in the underlying economy remains buoyant even if official regional economic data suggest otherwise.
Orientation: Large-scale events such as disasters, wars and pandemics disrupt the economy by diverging resource allocation, which could alter employment growth within the economy during recovery.
Research purpose: The literature on the disaster–economic nexus predominantly considers the aggregate performance of the economy, including the stimulus injection. This research assesses the employment transition following a disaster by removing this stimulus injection and evaluating the economy’s performance during recovery.
Motivation for the study: The underlying economy’s performance without the stimulus’ benefit remains primarily unanswered. A single disaster event is used to assess the employment transition to guide future stimulus response for disasters.
Research approach/design and method: Canterbury, New Zealand, was affected by a series of earthquakes in 2010–2011 and is used as a single case study. Applying the historical construction–economic relationship, a counterfactual level of economic activity is quantified and compared with official results. Using an input–output model to remove the economy-wide impact from the elevated activity reveals the performance of the underlying economy and employment transition during recovery.
Main findings: The results indicate a return to a demand-driven level of building activity 10 years after the disaster. Employment transition is characterised by two distinct periods. The first 5 years are stimulus-driven, while the 5 years that follow are demand-driven from the underlying economy. After the initial period of elevated building activity, construction repositioned to its long-term level near 5% of value add. Practical/managerial implications: The level of building activity could be used to confidently assess the performance of regional economies following a destructive disaster. The study results argue for an incentive to redevelop the affected area as quickly as possible to mitigate the negative effect of the destruction and provide a stimulus for the economy. Contribution/value-add: This study contributes to a growing stream of regional disaster economics research that assesses the economic effect using a single case study.
This research investigates creativity in a post-disaster setting. The data explore creativity at the intersection of the affected community of Christchurch, New Zealand and the social processes that followed the earthquakes of 2010 - 2012. Personal and contextual influences on creative ideas implemented for community or commercial benefit are also examined.
Viewed as creative, unique approaches to post-disaster problem solving were celebrated locally, nationally and internationally (Bergman, 2014; Wesener, 2015; Cloke & Conradson, 2018). Much has been written about creativity, particularly creativity in organisations and in business. However, little is known with regards to who creates after a disaster, why individuals choose to do so and what impact the post-disaster context has on their creative activity. This exploratory study draws on the literature from the fields of creativity, disasters, psychology, sociology and entrepreneurship to interpret first-hand accounts of people who acted on creative ideas in a physically and socially altered environment.
A mixed method - albeit predominantly qualitative - approach to data gathering was adopted that included interviews (n=45) with participants who had been the primary drivers of creative ideas implemented in Christchurch after September 2010 – the first major (7.1 magnitude) earthquake in a prolonged sequence of thousands of aftershocks.
Key findings include that a specific type of creativity results from the ‘collision’ between individuals and social processes activated by a disaster situation. This type of creativity could be best categorised as ‘little c’ or socially adaptive and emerges through a prosocial filter. There is wide consensus amongst creativity researchers - principally social psychologists - that for output to be considered creative it must be both novel and useful (Runco & Jaegar, 2012). There is greater tolerance for the novelty component after a disaster as novelty itself has greater utility, either as a distraction or because alternatives are few. Existing creativity models show context as input – an additional component of the creative process – but after a disaster the event itself becomes the catalyst for social processes that result in the creativity seen. Most participants demonstrated characteristics commonly associated with creativity and could be categorised as either a ‘free thinker’ and/or an ‘opportunist’. Some appear preadapted to create and thrive in unstable circumstances.
Findings from participants’ completion of a Ten Item Personality Inventory (TIPI) showed an apparent reduced need for extraversion in relation to implementing creative ventures in society. This factor, along with higher levels of agreeableness may indicate a potentially detrimental effect on the success of creative ideas established after a disaster, despite earnest intentions.
Three new models are presented to illustrate the key findings of this study. The models imply that disasters enhance both the perceived value of creativity and the desire to act creatively for prosocial ends. The models also indicate that these disaster influenced changes are likely to be temporary.
