We present initial results from a set of three-dimensional (3D) deterministic earthquake ground motion simulations for the northern Canterbury plains, Christchurch and the Banks Peninsula region, which explicitly incorporate the effects of the surface topography. The simu-lations are done using Hercules, an octree-based finite-element parallel software for solving 3D seismic wave propagation problems in heterogeneous media under kinematic faulting. We describe the efforts undertaken to couple Hercules with the South Island Velocity Model (SIVM), which included changes to the SIVM code in order to allow for single repetitive que-ries and thus achieve a seamless finite-element meshing process within the end-to-end ap-proach adopted in Hercules. We present our selection of the region of interest, which corre-sponds to an area of about 120 km × 120 km, with the 3D model reaching a depth of 60 km. Initial simulation parameters are set for relatively high minimum shear wave velocity and a low maximum frequency, which we are progressively scaling up as computing resources permit. While the effects of topography are typically more important at higher frequencies and low seismic velocities, even at this initial stage of our efforts (with a maximum of 2 Hz and a mini-mum of 500 m/s), it is possible to observe the importance of the topography in the response of some key locations within our model. To highlight these effects we compare the results of the 3D topographic model with respect to those of a flat (squashed) 3D model. We draw rele-vant conclusions from the study of topographic effects during earthquakes for this region and describe our plans for future work.
The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the effects of a major disaster on the management of human resources in the construction sector. It sets out to identify the construction skills challenges and the factors that affected skills availability following the 2010/2011 earthquakes in Christchurch. It is hoped that this study will provide insights for on-going reconstruction and future disaster response with respect to the problem of skills shortages. Design/methodology/approach A triangulation method was adopted. The quantitative method, namely, a questionnaire survey, was employed to provide a baseline description. Field observations and interviews were used as a follow-up to ascertain issues and potential shortages over time. Three focus groups in the form of research workshops were convened to gain further insight into the feedback and to investigate the validity and applicability of the research findings. Findings The earthquakes in Christchurch had compounded the pre-existing skills shortages in the country due to heightened demand from reconstruction. Skills shortages primarily existed in seismic assessment and design for land and structures, certain trades, project management and site supervision. The limited technical capability available nationally, shortage of temporary accommodation to house additional workers, time needed for trainees to become skilled workers, lack of information about reconstruction workloads and lack of operational capacity within construction organisations, were critical constraints to the resourcing of disaster recovery projects. Research limitations/implications The research findings contribute to the debate on skills issues in construction. The study provides evidence that contributes to an improved understanding of the industry’s skills vulnerability and emerging issues that would likely exist after a major disaster in a resource-limited country such as New Zealand. Practical implications From this research, decision makers and construction organisations can gain a clear direction for improving the construction capacity and capability for on-going reconstruction. Factors that affected the post-earthquake skills availability can be considered by decision makers and construction organisations in their workforce planning for future disaster events. The recommendations will assist them in addressing skills shortages for on-going reconstruction. Originality/value Although the study is country-specific, the findings show the nature and scale of skills challenges the construction industry is likely to face following a major disaster, and the potential issues that may compound skills shortages. It provides lessons for other disaster-prone countries where the resource pool is small and a large number of additional workers are needed to undertake reconstruction.
In September 2010 and February 2011, the Canterbury region experienced devastating earthquakes with an estimated economic cost of over NZ$40 billion (Parker and Steenkamp, 2012; Timar et al., 2014; Potter et al., 2015). The insurance market played an important role in rebuilding the Canterbury region after the earthquakes. Homeowners, insurance and reinsurance markets and New Zealand government agencies faced a difficult task to manage the rebuild process. From an empirical and theoretic research viewpoint, the Christchurch disaster calls for an assessment of how the insurance market deals with such disasters in the future. Previous studies have investigated market responses to losses in global catastrophes by focusing on the insurance supply-side. This study investigates both demand-side and supply-side insurance market responses to the Christchurch earthquakes. Despite the fact that New Zealand is prone to seismic activities, there are scant previous studies in the area of earthquake insurance. This study does offer a unique opportunity to examine and document the New Zealand insurance market response to catastrophe risk, providing results critical for understanding market responses after major loss events in general. A review of previous studies shows higher premiums suppress demand, but how higher premiums and a higher probability of risk affect demand is still largely unknown. According to previous studies, the supply of disaster coverage is curtailed unless the market is subsidised, however, there is still unsettled discussion on why demand decreases with time from the previous disaster even when the supply of coverage is subsidised by the government. Natural disaster risks pose a set of challenges for insurance market players because of substantial ambiguity associated with the probability of such events occurring and high spatial correlation of catastrophe losses. Private insurance market inefficiencies due to high premiums and spatially concentrated risks calls for government intervention in the provision of natural disaster insurance to avert situations of noninsurance and underinsurance. Political economy considerations make it more likely for government support to be called for if many people are uninsured than if few people are uninsured. However, emergency assistance for property owners after catastrophe events can encourage most property owners to not buy insurance against natural disaster and develop adverse selection behaviour, generating larger future risks for homeowners and governments. On the demand-side, this study has developed an intertemporal model to examine how demand for insurance changes post-catastrophe, and how to model it theoretically. In this intertemporal model, insurance can be sought in two sequential periods of time, and at the second period, it is known whether or not a loss event happened in period one. The results show that period one demand for insurance increases relative to the standard single period model when the second period is taken into consideration, period two insurance demand is higher post-loss, higher than both the period one demand and the period two demand without a period one loss. To investigate policyholders experience from the demand-side perspective, a total of 1600 survey questionnaires were administered, and responses from 254 participants received representing a 16 percent response rate. Survey data was gathered from four institutions in Canterbury and is probably not representative of the entire population. The results of the survey show that the change from full replacement value policy to nominated replacement value policy is a key determinant of the direction of change in the level of insurance coverage after the earthquakes. The earthquakes also highlighted the plight of those who were underinsured, prompting policyholders to update their insurance coverage to reflect the estimated cost of re-building their property. The survey has added further evidence to the existing literature, such as those who have had a recent experience with disaster loss report increased risk perception if a similar event happens in future with females reporting a higher risk perception than males. Of the demographic variables, only gender has a relationship with changes in household cover. On the supply-side, this study has built a risk-based pricing model suitable to generate a competitive premium rate for natural disaster insurance cover. Using illustrative data from the Christchurch Red-zone suburbs, the model generates competitive premium rates for catastrophe risk. When the proposed model incorporates the new RMS high-definition New Zealand Earthquake Model, for example, insurers can find the model useful to identify losses at a granular level so as to calculate the competitive premium. This study observes that the key to the success of the New Zealand dual insurance system despite the high prevalence of catastrophe losses are; firstly the EQC’s flat-rate pricing structure keeps private insurance premiums affordable and very high nationwide homeowner take-up rates of natural disaster insurance. Secondly, private insurers and the EQC have an elaborate reinsurance arrangement in place. By efficiently transferring risk to the reinsurer, the cost of writing primary insurance is considerably reduced ultimately expanding primary insurance capacity and supply of insurance coverage.
Non-structural elements (NSEs) have frequently proven to contribute to significant losses sustained from earthquakes in the form of damage, downtime, injury and death. In New Zealand (NZ), the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), the 2013 Seddon and Cook Strait earthquake sequence and the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake were major milestones in this regard as significant damage to building NSEs both highlighted and further reinforced the importance of NSE seismic performance to the resilience of urban centres. Extensive damage in suspended ceilings, partition walls, façades and building services following the CES was reported to be partly due to erroneous seismic design or installation or caused by intervening elements. Moreover, the low-damage solutions developed for structural systems sometimes allow for relatively large inter-story drifts -compared to conventional designs- which may not have been considered in the seismic design of NSEs. Having observed these shortcomings, this study on suspended ceilings was carried out with five main goals: i) Understanding the seismic performance of the system commonly used in NZ; ii) Understanding the transfer of seismic design actions through different suspended ceiling components, iii) Investigating potential low-damage solutions; iii) Evaluating the compatibility of the current ceiling system with other low-damage NSEs; and iv) Investigating the application of numerical analysis to simulate the response of ceiling systems. The first phase of the study followed a joint research work between the University of Canterbury (UC) in NZ, and the Politecnico Di Milano, in Italy. The experimental ceiling component fragility curves obtained in this existing study were employed to produce analytical fragility curves for a perimeter-fixed ceiling of a given size and weight, with grid acceleration as the intensity measure. The validity of the method was proven through comparisons between this proposed analytical approach with the recommended procedures in proprietary products design guidelines, as well as experimental fragility curves from other studies. For application to engineering design practice, and using fragility curves for a range of ceiling lengths and weights, design curves were produced for estimating the allowable grid lengths for a given demand level. In the second phase of this study, three specimens of perimeter-fixed ceilings were tested on a shake table under both sinusoidal and random floor motion input. The experiments considered the relationship between the floor acceleration, acceleration of the ceiling grid, the axial force induced in the grid members, and the effect of boundary conditions on the transfer of these axial forces. A direct correlation was observed between the axial force (recorded via load cells) and the horizontal acceleration measured on the ceiling grid. Moreover, the amplification of floor acceleration, as transferred through ceiling components, was examined and found (in several tests) to be greater than the recommended factor for the design of ceilings provided in the NZ earthquake loadings standard NZS1170.5. However, this amplification was found to be influenced by the pounding interactions between the ceiling grid members and the tiles, and this amplification diminished considerably when the high frequency content was filtered out from the output time histories. The experiments ended with damage in the ceiling grid connection at an axial force similar to the capacity of these joints previously measured through static tests in phase one. The observation of common forms of damage in ceilings in earthquakes triggered the monotonic experiments carried out in the third phase of this research with the objective of investigating a simple and easily applicable mitigation strategy for existing or new suspended ceilings. The tests focused on the possibility of using proprietary cross-shaped clip elements ordinarily used to provide seismic gap as a strengthening solution for the weak components of a ceiling. The results showed that the solution was effective under both tension and compression loads through increasing load bearing capacity and ductility in grid connections. The feasibility of a novel type of suspended ceiling called fully-floating ceiling system was investigated through shaking table tests in the next phase of this study with the main goal of isolating the ceiling from the surrounding structure; thereby arresting the transfer of associated seismic forces from the structure to the ceiling. The fully-floating ceiling specimen was freely hung from the floor above lacking any lateral bracing and connections with the perimeter. Throughout different tests, a satisfactory agreement between the fully-floating ceiling response and simple pendulum theory was demonstrated. The addition of isolation material in perimeter gaps was found effective in inducing extra damping and protecting the ceiling from pounding impact; resulting in much reduced ceiling displacements and accelerations. The only form of damage observed throughout the random floor motion tests and the sinusoidal tests was a panel dislodgement observed in a test due to successive poundings between the ceiling specimen and the surrounding beams at resonant frequencies. Partition walls as the first effective NSE in direct interaction with ceilings were the topic of the final experimental phase. Low-damage drywall partitions proposed in a previous study in the UC were tested with two common forms of suspended ceiling: braced and perimeter-fixed. The experiments investigated the in-plane and out-of-plane performance of the low-damage drywall partitions, as well as displacement compatibility between these walls and the suspended ceilings. In the braced ceiling experiment, where no connection was made between ceiling grids and surrounding walls no damage in the grid system or partitions was observed. However, at high drift values panel dislodgement was observed on corners of the ceiling where the free ends of grids were not restrained against spreading. This could be prevented by framing the grid ends using a perimeter angle that is riveted only to the grid members while keeping sufficient clearance from the perimeter walls. In the next set of tests with the perimeter-fixed ceiling, no damage was observed in the ceiling system or the drywalls. Based on the results of the experiments it was concluded that the tested ceiling had enough flexibility to accommodate the relative displacement between two perpendicular walls up to the inter-storey drifts achieved. The experiments on perimeter-fixed ceilings were followed by numerical simulations of the performance of these ceilings in a finite element model developed in the structural analysis software, SAP2000. This model was relatively simple and easy to develop and was able to replicate the experimental results to a reasonable degree. Filtering was applied to the experimental output to exclude the effect of high frequency noise and tile-grid impact. The developed model generally simulated the acceleration responses well but underestimated the peak ceiling grid accelerations. This was possibly because the peak values in time histories were affected by impact occurring at very short periods. The model overestimated the axial forces in ceiling grids which was assumed to be caused by the initial assumptions made about the tributary area or constant acceleration associated with each grid line in the direction of excitation. Otherwise, the overall success of the numerical modelling in replicating the experimental results implies that numerical modelling using conventional structural analysis software could be used in engineering practice to analyse alternative ceiling geometries proposed for application to varying structural systems. This however, needs to be confirmed through similar analyses on other ceiling examples from existing instrumented buildings during real earthquakes. As the concluding part of this research the final phase addressed the issues raised following the review of existing ceiling standards and guidelines. The applicability of the research findings to current practice and their implications were discussed. Finally, an example was provided for the design of a suspended ceiling utilising the new knowledge acquired in this research.
