Orientation: Large-scale events such as disasters, wars and pandemics disrupt the economy by diverging resource allocation, which could alter employment growth within the economy during recovery. Research purpose: The literature on the disaster–economic nexus predominantly considers the aggregate performance of the economy, including the stimulus injection. This research assesses the employment transition following a disaster by removing this stimulus injection and evaluating the economy’s performance during recovery. Motivation for the study: The underlying economy’s performance without the stimulus’ benefit remains primarily unanswered. A single disaster event is used to assess the employment transition to guide future stimulus response for disasters. Research approach/design and method: Canterbury, New Zealand, was affected by a series of earthquakes in 2010–2011 and is used as a single case study. Applying the historical construction–economic relationship, a counterfactual level of economic activity is quantified and compared with official results. Using an input–output model to remove the economy-wide impact from the elevated activity reveals the performance of the underlying economy and employment transition during recovery. Main findings: The results indicate a return to a demand-driven level of building activity 10 years after the disaster. Employment transition is characterised by two distinct periods. The first 5 years are stimulus-driven, while the 5 years that follow are demand-driven from the underlying economy. After the initial period of elevated building activity, construction repositioned to its long-term level near 5% of value add. Practical/managerial implications: The level of building activity could be used to confidently assess the performance of regional economies following a destructive disaster. The study results argue for an incentive to redevelop the affected area as quickly as possible to mitigate the negative effect of the destruction and provide a stimulus for the economy. Contribution/value-add: This study contributes to a growing stream of regional disaster economics research that assesses the economic effect using a single case study.
A dramatic consequence of the Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 was the widespread liquefaction in the city. Part of the central business district (CBD) was badly affected by liquefaction but elsewhere large volumes of ejecta were not evident for those parts of the CBD where the upper layers in the soil profile are sandy gravel and gravelly sand. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effect of the gravel permeability on the rise and dissipation of excess pore water pressure during cyclic loading of a soil profile idealised from Christchurch data. The Cyclic1D software, which performs one-dimensional non-linear effective stress site response analysis, was used. Permeability values associated with gravel were found to suppress the cyclic accumulation of excess pore water pressure in gravel layers. Given that there has not been any systematic measurement of the in situ permeability of the gravels in Christchurch, the modelling in the paper suggests that likely values for the bulk permeability of the gravel layers are within the range suggested in the geotechnical literature. However, the work reported is of wider application than Christchurch and emphasises the controlling influence of permeability on the accumulation and dissipation of cyclic pore pressures VoR - Version of Record
Abstract. Natural (e.g., earthquake, flood, wildfires) and human-made (e.g., terrorism, civil strife) disasters are inevitable, can cause extensive disruption, and produce chronic and disabling psychological injuries leading to formal diagnoses (e.g., post-traumatic stress disorder [PTSD]). Following natural disasters of earthquake (Christchurch, Aotearoa/New Zealand, 2010–11) and flood (Calgary, Canada, 2013), controlled research showed statistically and clinically significant reductions in psychological distress for survivors who consumed minerals and vitamins (micronutrients) in the following months. Following a mass shooting in Christchurch (March 15, 2019), where a gunman entered mosques during Friday prayers and killed and injured many people, micronutrients were offered to survivors as a clinical service based on translational science principles and adapted to be culturally appropriate. In this first translational science study in the area of nutrition and disasters, clinical results were reported for 24 clients who completed the Impact of Event Scale – Revised (IES-R), the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS), and the Modified-Clinical Global Impression (M-CGI-I). The findings clearly replicated prior controlled research. The IES-R Cohen’s d ESs were 1.1 (earthquake), 1.2 (flood), and 1.13 (massacre). Effect sizes (ESs) for the DASS subscales were also consistently positive across all three events. The M-CGI-I identified 58% of the survivors as “responders” (i.e., self-reported as “much” to “very much” improved), in line with those reported in the earthquake (42%) and flood (57%) randomized controlled trials, and PTSD risk reduced from 75% to 17%. Given ease of use and large ESs, this evidence supports the routine use of micronutrients by disaster survivors as part of governmental response.
