We estimate the causal effects of a large unanticipated natural disaster on high schoolers’ university enrolment decisions and subsequent medium-term labour market outcomes. Using national administrative data after a destructive earthquake in New Zealand, we estimate that the disaster raises tertiary education enrolment of recent high school graduates by 6.1 percentage points. The effects are most pronounced for males, students who are academically weak relative to their peers, and students from schools directly damaged by the disaster. As relatively low ability males are overrepresented in sectors of the labour market helped by the earthquake, greater demand for university may stem from permanent changes in deeper behavioural parameters such as risk aversion or time preference, rather than as a coping response to poor economic opportunities.
Natural hazard reviews reveal increases in disaster impacts nowhere more pronounced than in coastal settlements. Despite efforts to enhance hazard resilience, the common trend remains to keep producing disaster prone places. This paper explicitly explores hazard versus multi-hazard concepts to illustrate how different conceptualizations can enhance or reduce settlement resilience. Understandings gained were combined with onthe-ground lessons from earthquake and flooding experiences to develop of a novel ‘first cut’ approach for analyzing key multi-hazard interconnections, and to evaluate resilience enhancing opportunities. Traditional disaster resilience efforts often consider different hazard types discretely. However, recent events in Christchurch, a New Zealand city that is part of the 100 Resilient Cities network, highlight the need to analyze the interrelated nature of different hazards, especially for enhancing lifelines system resilience. Our overview of the Christchurch case study demonstrates that seismic, hydrological, shallow-earth, and coastal hazards can be fundamentally interconnected, with catastrophic results where such interconnections go unrecognized. In response, we have begun to develop a simple approach for use by different stakeholders to support resilience planning, pre and post disaster, by: drawing attention to natural and built environment multi-hazard links in general; illustrating a ‘first cut’ tool for uncovering earthquake-flooding multi-hazard links in particular; and providing a basis for reviewing resilience strategy effectiveness in multi-hazard prone environments. This framework has particular application to tectonically active areas exposed to climate-change issues.
Natural catastrophes are increasing worldwide. They are becoming more frequent but also more severe and impactful on our built environment leading to extensive damage and losses. Earthquake events account for the smallest part of natural events; nevertheless seismic damage led to the most fatalities and significant losses over the period 1981-2016 (Munich Re). Damage prediction is helpful for emergency management and the development of earthquake risk mitigation projects. Recent design efforts focused on the application of performance-based design engineering where damage estimation methodologies use fragility and vulnerability functions. However, the approach does not explicitly specify the essential criteria leading to economic losses. There is thus a need for an improved methodology that finds the critical building elements related to significant losses. The here presented methodology uses data science techniques to identify key building features that contribute to the bulk of losses. It uses empirical data collected on site during earthquake reconnaissance mission to train a machine learning model that can further be used for the estimation of building damage post-earthquake. The first model is developed for Christchurch. Empirical building damage data from the 2010-2011 earthquake events is analysed to find the building features that contributed the most to damage. Once processed, the data is used to train a machine-learning model that can be applied to estimate losses in future earthquake events.
1. INTRODUCTION. Earthquakes and geohazards, such as liquefaction, landslides and rock falls, constitute a major risk for New Zealand communities and can have devastating impacts as the Canterbury 2010/2011 experience shows. Development patterns expose communities to an array of natural hazards, including tsunamis, floods, droughts, and sea level rise amongst others. Fostering community resilience is therefore vitally important. As the rhetoric of resilience is mainstreamed into the statutory framework, a major challenge emerges: how can New Zealand operationalize this complex and sometimes contested concept and build ‘community capitals’? This research seeks to provide insights to this question by critically evaluating how community capitals are conceptualized and how they can contribute to community resilience in the context of the Waimakariri District earthquake recovery and regeneration process.
Earthquake-triggered soil liquefaction caused extensive damage and heavy economic losses in Christchurch during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. The most severe manifestations of liquefaction were associated with the presence of natural deposits of clean sands and silty sands of fluvial origin. However, liquefaction resistance of fines-containing sands is commonly inferred from empirical relationships based on clean sands (i.e. sands with less than 5% fines). Hence, existing evaluation methods have poor accuracy when applied to silty sands. Also, existing methods do not quantify appropriately the influence on liquefaction resistance of soil fabric and structure, which are unique to a specific depositional environment. This study looks at the influence of fines content, soil fabric (i.e. arrangement of soil particles) and structure (e.g. layering, segregation) on the undrained cyclic behaviour and liquefaction resistance of fines-containing sandy soils from Christchurch using Direct Simple Shear (DSS) tests on soil specimens reconstituted in the laboratory with the water sedimentation technique. The poster describes experimental procedures and presents early test results on two sands retrieved at two different sites in Christchurch.
For 150,000 Christchurch school students, the 12.51 pm earthquake of 22 February 2011 shattered their normal lunch time activities and thrust their teachers into the role of emergency first responders. Whether helping students (children) escape immediate danger, or identifying and managing the best strategies for keeping children safe, including provision of extended caregiving when parents were unable to return to school to retrieve their children, teachers had to manage their own fears and trauma reactions in order to appear calm and prevent further distress for the children in their care. Only then did teachers return to their families. Eighteen months later, twenty teachers from across Christchurch, were interviewed. At 12.51pm, the teachers were essentially first responders. Using their usual methods for presenting a calm and professional image, the teachers’ emotion regulation (ER) strategies for managing their immediate fears were similar to those of professional first responders, with similar potential for subsequent burnout and negative emotional effects. Teachers’ higher emotional exhaustion and burnout 18 months later, were associated with school relocation. Lower burnout was associated with more emotional awareness, ER and perceived support. Consistent with international research, teachers’ use of cognitive reappraisal (re-thinking a situation) was an effective ER strategy, but this may not prevent teachers’ emotional resources from eventually becoming depleted. Teachers fulfill an important role in supporting children’s psychosocial adjustment following a natural disaster. However, as also acknowledged in international research, we need to also focus on supporting the teachers themselves.
Following a natural disaster, children are prone to various reactions and maladaptive responses as a result of exposure to a highly stressful and potentially traumatic event. Children’s responses can range from an acute stress response to post-traumatic-stress disorder or may fall somewhere in between. While responses to highly stressful events vary, a common finding is that children will develop sleep problems. This was found following the Christchurch September 2010 and February 2011 earthquakes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the context and phenomenology of the sleep problems of a small number of children experiencing these and the 2016 Kaikoura earthquakes, including possible mechanisms of effect. Participants were four families, including four mothers, one father and four children. The design of this study was unique. Interview data was subjected to a content analysis, extracted themes were organised according to an ecological-transactional framework and then the factors were subject to an analysis, based on the principles of clinical reasoning, in order to identify possible mechanisms of effect. Parents reported 16 different sleep problems across children, as well as other behaviours possibly indicative of post-traumatic stress response. In total, 34 themes and 26 interactions were extracted in relation to factors identified across participants about the children’s sleep and the families’ earthquake experiences. This demonstrated how complex it is to explore the development of sleep problems in the context of disaster. Key factors identified by parents that likely played a key role in the development and perpetuation of sleep problems included earthquake related anxiety, parental mental health and conflict, the child’s emotional and behavioural problems and other negative life events following the earthquakes. The clinical implications of the analysis included being aware that such families, may not have had access to specialized support around their children’s sleep. This was much needed due to the strain such problems place on the family, especially in a post-disaster community such as Christchurch.
On November 14 2016 a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck the south island of New Zealand. The earthquake lasted for just two minutes with severe seismic shaking and damage in the Hurunui and Kaikōura districts. Although these are predominantly rural areas, with scattered small towns and mountainous topography, they also contain road and rail routes that are essential parts of the national transport infrastructure. This earthquake and the subsequent recovery are of particular significance as they represent a disaster following in close proximity to another similar disaster, with the Canterbury earthquakes occurring in a neighboring district five years earlier. The research used an inductive qualitative case study to explore the nature of the Kaikōura recovery. That recovery process involved a complex interplay between the three parties; (a) the existing local government in the district, (b) central government agencies funding the recovery of the local residents and the national transport infrastructure, and (c) recovery leaders arriving with recent expertise from the earlier Canterbury disaster. It was evident that three groups: locals, government, and experts represented a multi-party governance debate in which the control of the Kaikōura earthquake recovery was shared amongst them. Each party had their own expertise, adgenda and networks that they brought to the Kaikōura recovery, but this created tensions between external expertise and local, community leadership. Recent earthquake research suggests that New Zealand is currently in the midst of an earthquake cluster, with further seismic disasters likely to occur in relatively close succession. This is likely to be compounded by the increasing frequency of other natural disasters with the effects of climate change. The present study investigates a phenomenon that may become increasingly common, with the transfer of disaster expertise from one event to another, and the interface between those experts with local and national government in directing recoveries. The findings of this study have implications for practitioners and policy makers in NZ and other countries where disasters are experienced in close spatial and temporal proximity.
The Leader Fault was one of at least 17 faults that ruptured the ground surface across the northeastern South Island of New Zealand during the Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake. The southern ~6 km of the Leader Fault, here referred to as the South Leader Fault (SLF), ruptured the North Canterbury (tectonic) Domain and is the primary focus of this study. The main objective of the thesis is to understand the key factors that contributed to the geometry and kinematics of the 2016 SLF rupture and its intersection with The Humps Fault (HF). This thesis employs a combination of techniques to achieve the primary objective, including detailed mapping of the bedrock geology, geomorphology and 2016 rupture, measurement of 2016 ground surface displacements, kinematic analysis of slip vectors from the earthquake, and logging of a single natural exposure across a 2016 rupture that was treated as a paleoseismic trench. The resulting datasets were collected in the field, from terrestrial LiDAR and InSAR imagery, and from historical (pre-earthquake) aerial photographs for a ~11 km2 study area. Surface ruptures in the study area are a miniature version of the entire rupture from the earthquake; they are geometrically and kinematically complex, with many individual and discontinuous segments of varying orientations and slip senses which are distributed across a zone up to ~3.5 km wide. Despite this variability, three main groups of ruptures have been identified. These are: 1) NE-SW striking, shallow to moderate dipping (25-45°W) faults that are approximately parallel to Cenozoic bedding with mainly reverse dip-slip and, and for the purposes of this thesis, are considered to be part of the SLF. 2) N-S striking, steeply dipping (~85°E) oblique sinistral faults that are up to the west and part of the SLF. 3) E-NE striking, moderate to steeply dipping (45-68°N) dextral reverse faults which are part of the HF. Bedding-parallel faults are interpreted to be flexural slip structures formed during folding of the near-surface Cenozoic strata, while the steeply dipping SLF ruptured a pre-existing bedrock fault which has little topographic expression. Groups 1 and 2 faults were both locally used for gravitational failure during the earthquake. Despite this non-tectonic fault movement, the slip vectors for faults that ruptured during the earthquake are broadly consistent with NCD tectonics and the regional ~100-120° trend of the principal horizontal stress/strain axes. Previous earthquake activity on the SLF is required by its displacement of Cenozoic formations but Late Quaternary slip on the fault prior to 2016 is neither supported by pre-existing fault scarps nor by changes in topography across the fault. By contrast, at least two earthquakes (including 2016) appear to have ruptured the HF from the mid Holocene, consistent with recurrence intervals of no more than ~7 kyr, and with preliminary observations from trenches on the fault farther to the west. The disparity in paleoearthquake records of the two faults suggests that they typically do not rupture together, thus it is concluded that the HF-SLF rupture pattern observed in the Kaikōura Earthquake rarely occurs in a single earthquake.
Cats all over the world hunt wild animals and can contribute to the extinction of threatened species. In New Zealand, around half of all households have at least one cat. When cats live close to a natural area, such as a wetland, they may have impacts on native species. A previous study on the movements and hunting behaviour of domestic (house) cats around the Travis Wetland, Christchurch, New Zealand during 2000-2001 raised concerns about the effects of cats on the local skink population, as skinks were a frequent prey item. My study is a comparison to the prior study, to determine if impacts have changed alongside changes in human populations in the area post-earthquake. The domestic cat population in the area was estimated by a household survey in March-April 2018. For a 6 month period from March-September 2018, 26 households recorded prey brought home by their 41 cats. During April-July 2018, 14 cats wore Global Positioning System (GPS) devices for 7 days each to track their movements. Skink abundance was measured with pitfall trapping over 20 days in February 2018. There were more households in the area in 2018 than there were in 2000, but the numbers of cats had decreased. In the 196 ha study area around Travis Wetland, the domestic cat population was estimated at 429 cats, down from the previous 494. Most of the cats were free roaming, but the majority had been desexed and many were mostly seen at home. A total of 42 prey items were reported from 26 households and 41 cats over 6 months. Of these, 62% were rodents, 26% were exotic birds, and 12% were native birds. There were no native skinks, other mammals, or other vertebrates such as fish and amphibians (invertebrates were not included in this study). Eight male and six female cats were tracked by GPS. Home range sizes for the 100% minimum convex polygons (MCPs) ranged from 1.34 to 9.68 ha (mean 4.09 ha, median 3.54 ha). There were 9/14 (64%) cats that entered the edge of the wetland. Males had significantly larger home range areas at night and in general compared with females. However, age and distance of the cat’s household to the wetland did not have a significant effect on home range size and there was no significant correlation between home range size and prey retrieved. In 20 days of skink trapping, 11 Oligosoma polychroma were caught. The estimated catch rate was not significantly different from an earlier study on skink abundance in Travis Wetland. The apparently low abundance of skinks may have been the result of successful wetland restoration creating less suitable skink habitat, or of other predators other than cats. In the future, increased education should be provided to the public about ways to increase wildlife in their area. This includes creating lizard friendly habitat in their gardens and increasing management for cats. Generally, only a few cats bring home prey often, and these select cats should be identified in initial surveys and included in further studies. In New Zealand, until management programmes can target all predators in urban areas, domestic cats could stay out at night and inside during the day to help decrease the abundance of rodents at night and reduce the number of birds and lizards caught during the day.
Background: We are in a period of history where natural disasters are increasing in both frequency and severity. They are having widespread impacts on communities, especially on vulnerable communities, those most affected who have the least ability to prepare or respond to a disaster. The ability to assemble and effectively manage Interagency Emergency Response Teams (IERTs) is critical to navigating the complexity and chaos found immediately following disasters. These teams play a crucial role in the multi-sectoral, multi-agency, multi-disciplinary, and inter-organisational response and are vital to ensuring the safety and well-being of vulnerable populations such as the young, aged, and socially and medically disadvantaged in disasters. Communication is key to the smooth operation of these teams. Most studies of the communication in IERTs during a disaster have been focussed at a macro-level of examining larger scale patterns and trends within organisations. Rarely found are micro-level analyses of interpersonal communication at the critical interfaces between collaborating agencies. This study set out to understand the experiences of those working at the interagency interfaces in an IERT set up by the Canterbury District Health Board to respond to the needs of the vulnerable people in the aftermath of the destructive earthquakes that hit Canterbury, New Zealand, in 2010-11. The aim of the study was to gain insights about the complexities of interpersonal communication (micro-level) involved in interagency response coordination and to generate an improved understanding into what stabilises the interagency communication interfaces between those agencies responding to a major disaster. Methods: A qualitative case study research design was employed to investigate how interagency communication interfaces were stabilised at the micro-level (“the case”) in the aftermath of the destructive earthquakes that hit Canterbury in 2010-11 (“the context”). Participant recruitment was undertaken by mapping which agencies were involved within the IERT and approaching representatives from each of these agencies. Data was collected via individual interviews using a semi-structured interview guide and was based on the “Critical Incident Technique”. Subsequently, data was transcribed verbatim and subjected to inductive analysis. This was underpinned theoretically by Weick’s “Interpretive Approach” and supported by Nvivo qualitative data analysis software. Results: 19 participants were interviewed in this study. Out of the inductive analysis emerged two primary themes, each with several sub-factors. The first major theme was destabilising/disruptive factors of interagency communication with five sub-factors, a) conflicting role mandates, b) rigid command structures, c) disruption of established communication structures, d) lack of shared language and understanding, and e) situational awareness disruption. The second major theme stabilising/steadying factors in interagency communication had four sub-factors, a) the establishment of the IERT, b) emergent novel communication strategies, c) establishment of a liaison role and d) pre-existing networks and relationships. Finally, there was a third sub-level identified during inductive analysis, where sub-factors from both primary themes were noted to be uniquely interconnected by emergent “consequences” arising out of the disaster context. Finally, findings were synthesised into a conceptual “Model of Interagency Communication at the Micro-level” based on this case study of the Canterbury earthquake disaster response. Discussion: The three key dimensions of The People, The Connections and The Improvisations served as a framework for the discussion of what stabilises interagency communication interfaces in a major disaster. The People were key to stabilising the interagency interfaces through functioning as a flexible conduit, guiding and navigating communication at the interagency interfaces and improving situational awareness. The Connections provided the collective competence, shared decision-making and prior established relationships that stabilised the micro-level communication at interagency interfaces. And finally, The Improvisations i.e., novel ideas and inventiveness that emerge out of rapidly changing post-disaster environments, also contributed to stabilisation of micro-level communication flows across interagency interfaces in the disaster response. “Command and control” hierarchical structures do provide clear processes and structures for teams working in disasters to follow. However, improvisations and novel solutions are also needed and often emerge from first responders (who are best placed to assess the evolving needs in a disaster where there is a high degree of uncertainty). Conclusion: This study highlights the value of incorporating an interface perspective into any study that seeks to understand the processes of IERTs during disaster responses. It also strengthens the requirement for disaster management frameworks to formally plan for and to allow for the adaptive responsiveness of local teams on the ground, and legitimise and recognise the improvisations of those in the role of emergent boundary spanners in a disaster response. This needs to be in addition to existing formal disaster response mechanisms. This study provides a new conceptual model that can be used to guide future case studies exploring stability at the interfaces of other IERTs and highlights the centrality of communication in the experiences of members of teams in the aftermath of a disaster. Utilising these new perspectives on stabilising communication at the interagency interfaces in disaster responses will have practical implications in the future to better serve the needs of vulnerable people who are at greatest risk of adverse outcomes in a disaster.
