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Research papers, Lincoln University

After 160 years of colonial settlement, Christchurch has recently experienced a sequence of devastating earthquakes and seen the need for a widespread de- and re-construction of the central city, as well as, many of the surrounding neighbourhoods and peri-urban satellite settlements. This paper will offer a view of the opportunities and restrictions to the post-earthquake re-development of Christchurch as informed by ‘growth machine’ theory. A case study investigating an illegal dump in central Christchurch will be used to assess the applicability of growth machine theory to the current disaster response.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Christchurch has experienced a series of over 13,500 earthquakes between September 2010 and January 2012. Some children who have been exposed to earthquakes may experience post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms (PTSD) including difficulty concentrating, feeling anxious, restlessness and confusion. Other children may be resilient to the effects of disaster. Western models of resilience relate to a child’s social support and their capacity to cope. The Māori model of wellbeing relates to whanau (family), wairua (spiritual connections), tinana (the physical body) and hinengaro (the mind and emotions). Children’s concepts of helping, caring and learning may provide insight into resilience without introducing the topic of earthquakes into the conversation, which in itself may provoke an episode of stress. Many researchers have studied the effects of earthquakes on children. However, few studies have examined positive outcomes and resilience or listened to the children’s voices. The objective of this study was to listen to the voices of children who experienced the Canterbury earthquake period in order to gain a deeper understanding of the ideas associated resilience. Individual interviews were conducted with 17 five-year-old participants during their first term of primary school. After the interviews, the teacher shared demographic information and reports on the children’s stress and coping. Six children were identified as New Zealand European and eleven children identified as New Zealand Māori. Children had different views of helping, caring and learning. Themes of resilience from Western and Kaupapa Māori models were identified in transcripts of the children's voices and drawings. Māori children voiced more themes of resilience associated with the Western model, and in the Tapa Whā model, Māori children's transcripts were more likely to be inclusive of all four components of well-being. How five-year-old children, having experienced an earthquake disaster during their preschool years, talk or draw pictures about helping, caring and learning can provide insight into resilience, especially in situations where it is not advisable to re-traumatise children by discussing the disaster event. Future research should interview parents/caregivers and whānau to gain further insights. Considering information from both a Western and a Tapa Whā perspective can also provide new insights into resilience in young children. A limitation of this study is that qualitative studies are not always free from a researcher’s interpretation and are, therefore, subjective.

Research papers, Lincoln University

The impact of the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010-12 and its aftermath has been enormous. This inventory lists some of the thousands of community-led groups and initiatives across the region that have developed or evolved as a result of the quake. This inventory is the third such inventory to have been produced. The Christchurch Earthquake Activity Inventory was released by Landcare Research in May 2011, three months after the devastating 22 February 2011 earthquake. The second inventory, entitled An Inventory of Community-led Recovery Initiatives in Canterbury, was collated by Bailey Peryman and Dr Suzanne Vallance (Lincoln University) approximately one year after the February earthquake. The research for this third inventory was undertaken over a four month period from June to September 2013, and was conducted primarily through online searches.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Fatal earthquakes such as that which occurred in Christchurch on February 22nd 2011, can result in survivors having difficulties with cognitively processing the event, which may be the precursor to posttraumatic stress symptoms. Trauma related dissociation has been proposed to be a mechanism related to these cognitive processing difficulties. Most research focusing on information processing and dissociation post-trauma has conducted controlled analogue studies or has not focused solely on information processing and dissociation. There is also scant research on these constructs across therapy. In response to this gap in research, two studies were developed. An association was proposed between dissociation and information processing as demonstrated by an increase in conceptual processing and a reduction in dissociation. It was predicted that an improvement in these constructs would be related to a reduction in PTSD symptoms over therapy. Study1 applied a case-study design to 5 individuals who were attending therapy for post-traumatic stress disorder in response to the trauma they had experienced from the Christchurch earthquakes. Study 2 assessed information processing and dissociation (via self and observer report) in 20 individuals who had direct exposure to the effects of the earthquake. Earthquake information processing and dissociation were assessed as they were happening nearly two year’s post-quake using correlation analyses and hierarchical regressions. The hypotheses were partially confirmed, in that an increase in conceptual processing was not shown to be associated with a reduction in dissociation. However, an increase in conceptual processing was shown to be related to trauma symptom improvement particularly for re-experiencing symptoms. In addition, study 2 demonstrated a possible relationship between trait dissociation and arousal symptoms. These findings partially support the proposed role information processing and dissociation play in the recovery from PTSD. The findings suggest that trauma related difficulties should be assessed as early as possible to resolve issues related to a delay in symptom reporting.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

During 2010 and 2011, a series of major earthquakes caused widespread damage in the city of Christchurch, New Zealand. The magnitude 6.3 quake in February 2011 caused 185 fatalities. In the ensuing months, the government progressively zoned residential land in Christchurch on the basis of its suitability for future occupation (considering damage from these quakes and future earthquake risk). Over 6,000 homes were placed in the ‘red-zone’, meaning that property owners were forced to sell their land to the Crown. This study analysed patterns of residential mobility amongst thirty-one red-zone households from the suburb of Southshore, Christchurch. Drawing on interviews and surveys, the research traced their experience from the zoning announcement until they had moved to a new residence. The research distinguished between short (before the zoning announcement) and long term (post the red zone ‘deadline’) forms of household relocation. The majority of households in the study were highly resistant to short term movement. Amongst those which did relocate before the zoning decision, the desire to maintain a valued social connection with a person outside of the earthquake environment was often an important factor. Some households also moved out of perceived necessity (e.g. due to lack of power or water). In terms of long-term relocation, concepts of affordability and safety were much more highly valued by the sample when purchasing post-quake property. This resulted in a distinct patterning of post-quake housing location choices. Perceived control over the moving process, relationship with government organisations and insurance companies, and time spent in the red-zone before moving all heavily influenced participants’ disaster experience. Contrary to previous studies, households in this study recorded higher levels of subjective well-being after relocating. The study proposed a typology of movers in the Christchurch post-disaster environment. Four mobility behaviours, or types, are identified: the Committed Stayers (CSs), the Environment Re-Creators (ERCs), the Resigned Acceptors (RAs), and the Opportunistic Movers (OMs). The CSs were defined by their immobility rather than their relocation aspirations, whilst the ERCs attempted to recreate or retain aspects of Southshore through their mobility. The RAs expressed a form of apathy towards the post-quake environment, whereas, on the other hand, the OMs moved relative to pre-earthquake plans, or opportunities that arose from the earthquake itself. Possibilities for further research include examining household adaptability to new residential environments and tracking further mobility patterns in the years following relocation from the red- zone.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The collapse of Redcliffs’ cliff in the 22 February 2011 and 13 June 2011 earthquakes were the first times ever a major failure incident occurred at Redcliffs in approximately 6000 years. This master’s thesis is a multidisciplinary engineering geological investigation sought to study these particular failure incidents, focusing on collecting the data necessary to explain the cause and effect of the cliff collapsing in the event of two major earthquakes. This study provides quantitative and qualitative data about the geotechnical attributes and engineering geological nature of the sea-cut cliff located at Redcliffs. Results from surveying the geology of Redcliffs show that the exposed lithology of the cliff face is a variably jointed rock body of welded and (relatively intact) unwelded ignimbrite, a predominantly massive unit of brecciated tuff, and a covering of wind-blown loess and soil deposit (commonly found throughout Canterbury) on top of the cliff. Moreover, detailing the external component of the slope profile shows that Redcliffs’ cliff is a 40 – 80 m cliff with two intersecting (NE and SE facing) slope aspects. The (remotely) measured geometry of the cliff face comprises of multiple outstanding gradients, averaging a slope angle of ~67 degrees (post-13 June 2011), where the steepest components are ~80 degrees, whereas the gentle sloping sections are ~44 degrees. The physical structure of Redcliffs’ cliff drastically changed after each collapse, whereby seismically induced alterations to the slope geometry resulted in material deposited on the talus at the base of the cliff. Prior to the first collapse, the variance of the gradient down the slope was minimal, with the SE Face being the most variable with up to three major gradients on one cross section. However, after each major collapse, the variability increased with more parts of the cliff face having more than one major gradient that is steeper or gentler than the remainder of the slope. The estimated volume of material lost as a result of the gradient changes was 28,267 m³ in February and 11,360 m³ in June 2011. In addition, surveys of the cliff top after the failure incidents revealed the development of fissures along the cliff edge. Monitoring 10 fissures over three months indicated that fissured by the cliff edge respond to intense seismicity (generally ≥ Mw 4) by widening. Redcliffs’ cliff collapsed on two separate occasions as a result of an accumulated amount of damage of the rock masses in the cliff (caused by weathering and erosion over time), and two Mw 6.2 trigger earthquakes which shook the Redcliffs and the surrounding area at a Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) estimated to be around 2 g. The results of the theoretical study suggests that PGA levels felt on-site during both instances of failure are the result of three major factors: source of the quake and the site affected; topographic amplification of the ground movement; the short distance between the source and the cliff for both fault ruptures; the focus of seismic energy in the direction of thrust faulting along a path that intercepts Redcliffs (and the Port Hills). Ultimately, failure on the NE and SE Faces of Redcliffs’ cliff was concluded to be global as every part of the exposed cliff face deposited a significant volume of material on the talus at the base of the cliff, with the exception of one section on the NE Face. The cliff collapses was a concurrent process that is a single (non-monotonic) event that operated as a complex series of (primarily) toppling rock falls, some sliding of blocks, and slumping of the soil mantle on top of the cliff. The first collapse had a mixture of equivalent continua slope movement of the heavily weathered / damaged surface of the cliff face, and discontinuous slope movement of the jointed inner slope (behind the heavily weathered surface); whereas the second collapse resulted in only discontinuous slope movement on account of the freshly exposed cliff face that had damage to the rock masses, in the form of old and (relatively) new discontinuous fractures, induced by earthquakes and aftershocks leading up to the point of failure.

Research papers, Lincoln University

A series of earthquakes has forced Christchurch to re-plan and rebuild. Discussions about rebuilding strategies have emphasized the intention of making it a city for the future, sustainable and vibrant. This paper discusses the relationship between microclimate and urban culture in Christchurch based upon the concept of urban comfort. It explores the relationships between environment, people and culture to help understand the local requirements for urban landscape design. In this paper we claim that cultural requirements also should be taken into account when looking for sustainable strategies. A distinctive feature of this research is its focus on the way people are adapting to both surviving prequake and new post‐quake environments. Preliminary findings from the first year of field work using participant observation and 61 in‐depth interviews with Christchurch residents are presented. The interviews were carried out in a variety of urban settings including: established sites (places sustaining relatively little damage) and emerging sites (those requiring rebuilding) during 2011‐2012. Evidence from the interviews highlight future challenges regarding sustainability and urban comfort issues. Post‐quake Christchurch presents a remarkable opportunity to design an urban landscape which provides environmental, economic, social and cultural sustainability. However, to achieve successful outcomes it is fundamental to respond to the local culture. Field data suggest that the strong connections between urban and rural settings present in local culture, lifestyle and landscape generate a particular aesthetic and recreation preference for urban spaces, which should be considered in the urban landscape design strategies.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The potential for a gastroenteritis outbreak in a post-earthquake environment may increase because of compromised infrastructure services, contaminated liquefaction (lateral spreading and surface ejecta), and the presence of gastroenteritis agents in the drinking water network. A population in a post-earthquake environment might be seriously affected by gastroenteritis because it has a short incubation period (about 10 hours). The potential for a gastroenteritis outbreak in a post-earthquake environment may increase because of compromised infrastructure services, contaminated liquefaction (lateral spreading and surface ejecta), and the presence of gastroenteritis agents in the drinking water network. A population in a post-earthquake environment might be seriously affected by gastroenteritis because it has a short incubation period (about 10 hours). The aim of this multidisciplinary research was to retrospectively analyse the gastroenteritis prevalence following the February 22, 2011 earthquake in Christchurch. The first focus was to assess whether earthquake-induced infrastructure damage, liquefaction, and gastroenteritis agents spatially explained the recorded gastroenteritis cases over the period of 35 days following the February 22, 2011 earthquake in Christchurch. The gastroenteritis agents considered in this study were Escherichia coli found in the drinking water supply (MPN/100mL) and Non-Compliant Free Associated Chlorine (FAC-NC) (less than <0.02mg/L). The second focus was the protocols that averted a gastroenteritis outbreak at three Emergency Centres (ECs): Burnside High School Emergency Centre (BEC); Cowles Stadium Emergency Centre (CEC); and Linwood High School Emergency Centre (LEC). Using a mixed-method approach, gastroenteritis point prevalence and the considered factors were quantitatively analysed. The qualitative analysis involved interviewing 30 EC staff members. The data was evaluated by adopting the Grounded Theory (GT) approach. Spatial analysis of considered factors showed that highly damaged CAUs were statistically clustered as demonstrated by Moran’s I statistic and hot spot analysis. Further modelling showed that gastroenteritis point prevalence clustering could not be fully explained by infrastructure damage alone, and other factors influenced the recorded gastroenteritis point prevalence. However, the results of this research suggest that there was a tenuous, indirect relationship between recorded gastroenteritis point prevalence and the considered factors: earthquake-induced infrastructure damage, liquefaction and FAC-NC. Two ECs were opened as part of the post-earthquake response in areas with severe infrastructure damage and liquefaction (BEC and CEC). The third EC (CEC) provided important lessons that were learnt from the previous September 4, 2010 earthquake, and implemented after the February 22, 2011 earthquake. Two types of interwoven themes identified: direct and indirect. The direct themes were preventive protocols and indirect themes included type of EC building (school or a sports stadium), and EC staff. The main limitations of the research were Modifiable Areal Units (MAUP), data detection, and memory loss. This research provides a practical method that can be adapted to assess gastroenteritis risk in a post-earthquake environment. Thus, this mixed method approach can be used in other disaster contexts to study gastroenteritis prevalence, and can serve as an appendage to the existing framework for assessing infectious diseases. Furthermore, the lessons learnt from qualitative analysis can inform the current infectious disease management plans, designed for a post-disaster response in New Zealand and internationally Using a mixed-method approach, gastroenteritis point prevalence and the considered factors were quantitatively analysed. A damage profile was created by amalgamating different types of damage for the considered factors for each Census Area Unit (CAU) in Christchurch. The damage profile enabled the application of a variety of statistical methods which included Moran’s I , Hot Spot (HS) analysis, Spearman’s Rho, and Besag–York–Mollié Model using a range of software. The qualitative analysis involved interviewing 30 EC staff members. The data was evaluated by adopting the Grounded Theory (GT) approach. Spatial analysis of considered factors showed that highly damaged CAUs were statistically clustered as demonstrated by Moran’s I statistic and hot spot analysis. Further modelling showed that gastroenteritis point prevalence clustering could not be fully explained by infrastructure damage alone, and other factors influenced the recorded gastroenteritis point prevalence. However, the results of this research suggest that there was a tenuous, indirect relationship between recorded gastroenteritis point prevalence and the considered factors: earthquake-induced infrastructure damage, liquefaction and FAC-NC. Two ECs were opened as part of the post-earthquake response in areas with severe infrastructure damage and liquefaction (BEC and CEC). The third EC (CEC) provided important lessons that were learnt from the previous September 4, 2010 earthquake, and implemented after the February 22, 2011 earthquake. The ECs were selected to represent the Christchurch area, and were situated where potential for gastroenteritis was high. BEC represented the western side of Christchurch; whilst, CEC and LEC represented the eastern side, where the potential for gastroenteritis was high according to the outputs of the quantitative spatial modelling. Qualitative analysis from the interviews at the ECs revealed that evacuees were arriving at the ECs with gastroenteritis-like symptoms. Participants believed that those symptoms did not originate at the ECs. Two types of interwoven themes identified: direct and indirect. The direct themes were preventive protocols that included prolific use of hand sanitisers; surveillance; and the services offered. Indirect themes included the EC layout, type of EC building (school or a sports stadium), and EC staff. Indirect themes governed the quality and sustainability of the direct themes implemented, which in turn averted gastroenteritis outbreaks at the ECs. The main limitations of the research were Modifiable Areal Units (MAUP), data detection, and memory loss. It was concluded that gastroenteritis point prevalence following the February 22, 2011 earthquake could not be solely explained by earthquake-induced infrastructure damage, liquefaction, and gastroenteritis causative agents alone. However, this research provides a practical method that can be adapted to assess gastroenteritis risk in a post-earthquake environment. Creating a damage profile for each CAU and using spatial data analysis can isolate vulnerable areas, and qualitative data analysis provides localised information. Thus, this mixed method approach can be used in other disaster contexts to study gastroenteritis prevalence, and can serve as an appendage to the existing framework for assessing infectious diseases. Furthermore, the lessons learnt from qualitative analysis can inform the current infectious disease management plans, designed for a post-disaster response in New Zealand and internationally.

Research papers, Lincoln University

Earthquakes rupture not only the objective realm of the physical landscape, but also the subjective landscape of emotions. Using the concepts of topophilia and topophobia developed by Yi-Fu Tuan as theories of love and fear of place, this paper investigates the impact of Christchurch’s earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 on relationships with the city’s landscape. Published accounts of the earthquakes in newspapers from around New Zealand are examined for evidence of how people responded to the situation, in particular their shifting relationship with familiar landscapes. The reports illustrate how residents and visitors reacted to the actual and perceived changes to their surroundings, grappling with how a familiar place had become alien and often startling. The extreme nature of the event and the death toll of 185 heightened perceptions of the landscape, and even the most taken-for-granted elements of the landscape became amplified in significance. Enhanced understanding of the landscape of emotions is a vital component of wellbeing. Through recognising that the impact of disasters and perceived threats to familiar places has a profound emotional effect, the significance of sense of place to wellbeing can be appreciated.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Civil Defense understanding of the role of radio in disaster tends to focus on its value in providing essential information during and after the event. However this role is compromised when a station’s premises are destroyed, or rendered inaccessible by official cordons. The Radio Quake study examines how radio stations in Christchurch managed to resume broadcasting in the aftermath of the earthquake of February 22, 2011. In New Zealand’s heavily networked and commercialised radio environment there is a significant disparity between networked and independent stations’ broadcast commitments and resourcing. All Christchurch radio broadcasters were forced to improvise new locations, complex technical workarounds, and responsive styles of broadcasting after the February 22 earthquake, but the need to restore, or maintain, a full on air presence after the earthquake, rested entirely on often financially tenuous, locally owned and staffed independent radio: student, Iwi, community access, and local commercial stations. This paper will explore the resourcefulness and resilience of broadcasters riding out the aftershocks in hotels, motels, bedrooms, and a horse truck, using digital technologies in new ways to reimagine the practice of radio in Christchurch.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Coastal and river environments are exposed to a number of natural hazards that have the potential to negatively affect both human and natural environments. The purpose of this research is to explain that significant vulnerabilities to seismic hazards exist within coastal and river environments and that coasts and rivers, past and present, have played as significant a role as seismic, engineering or socio-economic factors in determining the impacts and recovery patterns of a city following a seismic hazard event. An interdisciplinary approach was used to investigate the vulnerability of coastal and river areas in the city of Christchurch, New Zealand, following the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence, which began on the 4th of September 2010. This information was used to identify the characteristics of coasts and rivers that make them more susceptible to earthquake induced hazards including liquefaction, lateral spreading, flooding, landslides and rock falls. The findings of this research are applicable to similar coastal and river environments elsewhere in the world where seismic hazards are also of significant concern. An interdisciplinary approach was used to document and analyse the coastal and river related effects of the Canterbury earthquake sequence on Christchurch city in order to derive transferable lessons that can be used to design less vulnerable urban communities and help to predict seismic vulnerabilities in other New Zealand and international urban coastal and river environments for the future. Methods used to document past and present features and earthquake impacts on coasts and rivers in Christchurch included using maps derived from Geographical Information Systems (GIS), photographs, analysis of interviews from coastal, river and engineering experts, and analysis of secondary data on seismicity, liquefaction potential, geology, and planning statutes. The Canterbury earthquake sequence had a significant effect on Christchurch, particularly around rivers and the coast. This was due to the susceptibility of rivers to lateral spreading and the susceptibility of the eastern Christchurch and estuarine environments to liquefaction. The collapse of river banks and the extensive cracking, tilting and subsidence that accompanied liquefaction, lateral spreading and rock falls caused damage to homes, roads, bridges and lifelines. This consequently blocked transportation routes, interrupted electricity and water lines, and damaged structures built in their path. This study found that there are a number of physical features of coastal and river environments from the past and the present that have induced vulnerabilities to earthquake hazards. The types of sediments found beneath eastern Christchurch are unconsolidated fine sands, silts, peats and gravels. Together with the high water tables located beneath the city, these deposits made the area particularly susceptible to liquefaction and liquefaction-induced lateral spreading, when an earthquake of sufficient size shook the ground. It was both past and present coastal and river processes that deposited the types of sediments that are easily liquefied during an earthquake. Eastern Christchurch was once a coastal and marine environment 6000 years ago when the shoreline reached about 6 km inland of its present day location, which deposited fine sand and silts over this area. The region was also exposed to large braided rivers and smaller spring fed rivers, both of which have laid down further fine sediments over the following thousands of years. A significant finding of this study is the recognition that the Canterbury earthquake sequence has exacerbated existing coastal and river hazards and that assessments and monitoring of these changes will be an important component of Christchurch’s future resilience to natural hazards. In addition, patterns of recovery following the Canterbury earthquakes are highlighted to show that coasts and rivers are again vulnerable to earthquakes through their ability to recovery. This city’s capacity to incorporate resilience into the recovery efforts is also highlighted in this study. Coastal and river areas have underlying physical characteristics that make them increasingly vulnerable to the effects of earthquake hazards, which have not typically been perceived as a ‘coastal’ or ‘river’ hazard. These findings enhance scientific and management understanding of the effects that earthquakes can have on coastal and river environments, an area of research that has had modest consideration to date. This understanding is important from a coastal and river hazard management perspective as concerns for increased human development around coastlines and river margins, with a high seismic risk, continue to grow.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This paper presents a methodology by which both site-specific and spatially distributed ground motion intensity can be obtained immediately following an earthquake event. The methodology makes use of both prediction models for ground motion intensity and its correlation over spatial distances. A key benefit of the methodology is that the ground motion intensity at a given location is not a single value but a distribution of values. The distribution is comprised of both a mean and also standard deviation, with the standard deviation being a function of the distance to nearby strong motion stations. The methodology is illustrated for two applications. Firstly, maps of conditional peak ground acceleration (PGA) have been developed for the major events in the Canterbury earthquake sequence. It is illustrated how these conditional maps can be used for post-event evaluation of liquefaction triggering criteria which have been adopted by the Department of Building and Housing (DBH). Secondly, the conditional distribution of response spectral ordinates is obtained at a specific location for the purposes of determining appropriate ground motion records for use in seismic response analyses of important structures at locations where direct recordings are absent.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

As a result of the 4 September 2010 Darfield earthquake and the more damaging 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake, considerable damage occurred to a significant number of buildings in Christchurch. The damage that occurred to the Christchurch Roman Catholic Cathedral of the Blessed Sacrament (commonly known as the Christchurch Basilica) as a result of the Canterbury earthquakes is reported, and the observed failure modes are identified. A previous strengthening intervention is outlined and the estimated capacity of the building is discussed. This strengthening was completed in 2004, and addressed the worst aspects of the building's seismic vulnerability. Urgent work was undertaken post-earthquake to secure parts of the building in order to limit damage and prevent collapse of unstable parts of the building. The approach taken for this securing is outlined, and the performance of the building and the previously installed earthquake strengthening intervention is evaluated.A key consideration throughout the project was the interaction between the structural securing requirements that were driven by the requirement to limit damage and mitigate hazards, and the heritage considerations. Lessons learnt from the strengthening that was carried out, the securing work undertaken, and the approach taken in making the building "safe" are discussed. Some conclusions are drawn with respect to the effectiveness of strengthening similar building types, and the approach taken to secure the building under active seismic conditions. AM - Accepted Manuscript

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The 2010 Darfield and 2011 Christchurch Earthquakes triggered extensive liquefaction-induced lateral spreading proximate to streams and rivers in the Christchurch area, causing significant damage to structures and lifelines. A case study in central Christchurch is presented and compares field observations with predicted displacements from the widely adopted empirical model of Youd et al. (2002). Cone penetration testing (CPT), with measured soil gradation indices (fines content and median grain size) on typical fluvial deposits along the Avon River were used to determine the required geotechnical parameters for the model input. The method presented attempts to enable the adoption of the extensive post-quake CPT test records in place of the lower quality and less available Standard Penetration Test (SPT) data required by the original Youd model. The results indicate some agreement between the Youd model predictions and the field observations, while the majority of computed displacements error on the side of over-prediction by more than a factor of two. A sensitivity analysis was performed with respect to the uncertainties used as model input, illustrating the model’s high sensitivity to the input parameters, with median grain size and fines content among the most influential, and suggesting that the use of CPT data to quantify these parameters may lead to variable results.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This thesis set out to explore the experiences of clients and counsellors in immediate crisis intervention shortly after a major earthquake. It explored the experiences and perceptions of change during counselling for both clients and counsellor, all of which were exposed to the disaster. This study supported the idea of counsellors needing to adapt to the context of post-disaster counselling and addressing client’s immediate needs. Having both been through the same disaster meant counsellors were often going through similar experiences and emotions as their clients during this time. This led counsellors to develop a greater sense of connection and understanding of their client, as well as showing more emotional responsivity and self-disclosure. This was experienced as different to their normal therapy engagement. The implications of these counsellor responses were seen to be helpful, but at times had the potential to be hindering for counselling. Clients valued their counsellor’s techniques and personal qualities but often failed to identify what contribution they, themselves, made to change processes. The differing nature of counselling in post-disaster areas, as gauged by this study may help inform expectations and experiences regarding provision of post-disaster acute interventions.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

During 2010 and 2011, major earthquakes caused widespread damage and the deaths of 185 people in the city of Christchurch. Damaged school buildings resulted in state intervention which required amendment of the Education Act of 1989, and the development of ‘site sharing agreements’ in undamaged schools to cater for the needs of students whose schools had closed. An effective plan was also developed for student assessment through establishing an earthquake impaired derived grade process. Previous research into traditional explanations of educational inequalities in the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and New Zealand were reviewed through various processes within three educational inputs: the student, the school and the state. Research into the impacts of urban natural disasters on education and education inequalities found literature on post disaster education systems but nothing could be found that included performance data. The impacts of the Canterbury earthquakes on educational inequalities and achievement were analysed over 2009-2012. The baseline year was 2009, the year before the first earthquake, while 2012 is seen as the recovery year as no schools closed due to seismic events and there was no state intervention into the education of the region. National Certificate of Educational Achievement (NCEA) results levels 1-3 from thirty-four secondary schools in the greater Christchurch region were graphed and analysed. Regression analysis indicates; in 2009, educational inequalities existed with a strong positive relationship between a school’s decile rating and NCEA achievement. When schools were grouped into decile rankings (1-10) and their 2010 NCEA levels 1-3 results were compared with the previous year, the percentage of change indicates an overall lower NCEA achievement in 2010 across all deciles, but particularly in lower decile schools. By contrast, when 2011 NCEA results were compared with those of 2009, as a percentage of change, lower decile schools fared better. Non site sharing schools also achieved higher results than site sharing schools. State interventions, had however contributed towards student’s achieving national examinations and entry to university in 2011. When NCEA results for 2012 were compared to 2009 educational inequalities still exist, however in 2012 the positive relationship between decile rating and achievement is marginally weaker than in 2009. Human ethics approval was required to survey one Christchurch secondary school community of students (aged between 12 and 18), teachers and staff, parents and caregivers during October 2011. Participation was voluntary and without incentives, 154 completed questionnaires were received. The Canterbury earthquakes and aftershocks changed the lives of the research participants. This school community was displaced to another school due to the Christchurch earthquake on 22 February 2011. Research results are grouped under four geographical perspectives; spatial impacts, socio-economic impacts, displacement, and health and wellbeing. Further research possibilities include researching the lag effects from the Canterbury earthquakes on school age children.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This study sought to investigate employee burnout within a post-disaster context by exploring teachers’ burnout perceptions and workplace attitudes in the aftermath of the 2010-2011 Christchurch earthquakes. The study hypothesised that burnout dimensions (emotional exhaustion and cynicism) would be related with the extent to which individuals and schools were impacted by the earthquakes, and with the quality of school support for staff and students (i.e., personal disaster impact, school disaster impact and school responsiveness to the disaster), with perceptions of role conflict and role overload, and with turnover intentions. Additionally, a Teacher Burnout Model was proposed whereby emotional exhaustion and cynicism were hypothesised to mediate the relationships between the independent variables (i.e., the disaster-related and role-related variables) and turnover intentions. 125 primary, intermediate and secondary school teachers from the city of Christchurch completed an online survey. Results revealed that high role overload, high role conflict, high school disaster impact, and schools’ ineffective disaster coping responses, were associated with increased levels of emotional exhaustion and cynicism. Although greater impact of earthquakes on teachers’ personal lives was related to higher levels of emotional exhaustion, results revealed a non-significant relationship between personal disaster impact and cynicism. In the Teacher Burnout Model, the relationships between both role stress variables and turnover intentions were mediated by perceptions of emotional exhaustion. This study contributes novel findings to the burnout literature, and provides implications for schools and organisations operating within a disaster context.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Canterbury region of New Zealand experienced four earthquakes greater than MW 6.0 between September 2010 and December 2011. This study employs system dynamics as well as hazard, recovery and organisational literature and brings together data collected via surveys, case studies and interviews with organisations affected by the earthquakes. This is to show how systemic interactions and interdependencies within and between industry and geographic sectors affect their recovery post-disaster. The industry sectors in the study are: construction for its role in the rebuild, information and communication technology which is a regional high-growth industry, trucking for logistics, critical infrastructure, fast moving consumer goods (e.g. supermarkets) and hospitality to track recovery through non-discretionary and discretionary spend respectively. Also in the study are three urban centres including the region’s largest Central Business District, which has been inaccessible since the earthquake of 22 February 2011 to the time of writing in February 2013. This work also highlights how earthquake effects propagated between sectors and how sectors collaborated to mitigate difficulties such as product demand instability. Other interacting factors are identified that influence the recovery trajectories of the different industry sectors. These are resource availability, insurance payments, aid from central government, and timely and quality recovery information. This work demonstrates that in recovering from disaster it is crucial for organisations to identify what interacting factors could affect their operations. Also of importance are efforts to reduce the organisation’s vulnerability and increase their resilience to future crises and in day-to-day operations. Lastly, the multi-disciplinary approach to understanding the recovery and resilience of organisations and industry sectors after disaster, leads to a better understanding of effects as well as more effective recovery policy.

Research papers, Lincoln University

This report focuses on the Waimakariri District Council's approach to earthquake recovery which was developed as an Integrated, Community-based Recovery Framework. This approach has been held up as exemplary in a number of fora and has received a great deal of interest and support both nationally and internationally. It has evolved as a result of the September earthquake and the thousands of aftershocks that have followed, along with the regulatory changes that have impacted on building safety and land availability since, but it builds on a set of pre-existing competencies and a well-established organisational culture that focusses on: * Working with communities and each other; * Keeping people informed; * Doing better everyday; * Taking responsibility; * Acting with integrity, honesty and trust. The report identifies, and speaks to, three themes or tensions drawn from either the disaster/emergency management literature or actual cases of recovery practice observed here in Canterbury over the last 2 years. These themes are the: 1. unique position of local government to undertake integrated or ‘holistic’ recovery work with community at the centre, versus the lack of clarity around both community and local government’s role in disaster recovery; 2. general consensus that good local government-community relationships are crucial to recovery processes, versus the lack of practical advice on how best to engage, and engage with, communities post-disaster; and 3. balancing Business as Usual (BaU) with recovery issues.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Fine grained sediment deposition in urban environments during natural hazard events can impact critical infrastructure and properties (urban terrain) leading to reduced social and economic function and potentially adverse public health effects. Therefore, clean-up of the sediments is required to minimise impacts and restore social and economic functionality as soon as possible. The strategies employed to manage and coordinate the clean-up significantly influence the speed, cost and quality of the clean-up operation. Additionally, the physical properties of the fine grained sediment affects the clean-up, transport, storage and future usage of the sediment. The goals of the research are to assess the resources, time and cost required for fine grained sediment clean-up in an urban environment following a disaster and to determine how the geotechnical properties of sediment will affect urban clean-up strategies. The thesis focuses on the impact of fine grained sediment (<1 mm) deposition from three liquefaction events during the Canterbury earthquake sequence (2010-2011) on residential suburbs and transport networks in Christchurch. It also presents how geotechnical properties of the material may affect clean-up strategies and methods by presenting geotechnical analysis of tephra material from the North Island of New Zealand. Finally, lessons for disaster response planning and decision making for clean-up of sediment in urban environments are presented. A series of semi-structured interviews of key stakeholders supported by relevant academic literature and media reports were used to record the clean-up operation coordination and management and to make a preliminary qualification of the Christchurch liquefaction ejecta clean-up (costs breakdown, time, volume, resources, coordination, planning and priorities). Further analysis of the costs and resources involved for better accuracy was required and so the analysis of Christchurch City Council road management database (RAMM) was done. In order to make a transition from general fine sediment clean-up to specific types of fine disaster sediment clean-up, adequate information about the material properties is required as they will define how the material will be handled, transported and stored. Laboratory analysis of young volcanic tephra from the New Zealand’s North Island was performed to identify their geotechnical properties (density, granulometry, plasticity, composition and angle of repose). The major findings of this research were that emergency planning and the use of the coordinated incident management system (CIMS) system during the emergency were important to facilitate rapid clean-up tasking, management of resources and ultimately recovery from widespread and voluminous liquefaction ejecta deposition in eastern Christchurch. A total estimated cost of approximately $NZ 40 million was calculated for the Christchurch City clean-up following the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence with a partial cost of $NZ 12 million for the Southern part of the city, where up to 33% (418 km) of the road network was impacted by liquefaction ejecta and required clearing of the material following the 22 February 2011 earthquake. Over 500,000 tonnes of ejecta has been stockpiled at Burwood landfill for all three liquefaction inducing earthquake events. The average cost per kilometre for the event clean-up was $NZ 5,500/km (4 September 2010), $NZ 11,650/km (22 February 2011) and $NZ 11,185/km (13 June 2011). The duration of clean-up time of residential properties and the road network was approximately two to three months for each of the three liquefaction ejecta events; despite events volumes and spatial distribution of ejecta. Interviews and quantitative analysis of RAMM data revealed that the experience and knowledge gained from the Darfield earthquake (4 September 2010) clean-up increased the efficiency of the following Christchurch earthquake induced liquefaction ejecta clean-up events. Density, particle size, particle shape, clay content and moisture content, are the important geotechnical properties that need to be considered when planning for a clean-up method that incorporates collection, transport and disposal or storage. The geotechnical properties for the tephra samples were analysed to increase preparedness and reaction response of potentially affected North Island cities from possible product from the active volcanoes in their region. The geotechnical results from this study show that volcanic tephra could be used in road or construction material but the properties would have to be further investigated for a New Zealand context. Using fresh volcanic material in road, building or flood control construction requires good understanding of the material properties and precaution during design and construction to extra care, but if well planned, it can be economically beneficial.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Canterbury earthquakes have generated economic demand and supply volatility, highlighting geographical and structural interdependencies. Post-earthquake reconstruction and new developments have seen skills training, relocation, recruitment and importation of skills becoming crucial for construction companies to meet demand and compete effectively. This report presents 15 case studies from a range of organisations involved in the Canterbury rebuild, exploring the business dynamics and outcomes of their resourcing initiatives. A key finding of this research is that, for many construction organisations, resourcing initiatives have become part of their organisational longer-term development strategies, rather than simply a response to ‘supply and demand’ pressures. Organisations are not relying on any single resourcing solution to drive their growth but use a combination of initiatives to create lasting business benefits, such as cost savings, improved brand and reputation, a stable and productive workforce, enhanced efficiency and staff morale, as well as improved skill levels.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

In 2010 Neil Challenger, Head of the School of Landscape Architecture at Lincoln University, stated that the malls surrounding Christchurch drove the life out of the inner city of Christchurch. His economic and sociological concerns were expressed even before the earthquake occurred, and this forms the current hesitation on the rebuilding of Christchurch’s inner city.  The position of this research proposal is to establish whether an urban architectural intervention can address these economic and sociological concerns and the potentially devastating effects the suburban mall has had on urban life within Christchurch.  The thesis specifically asks whether establishing a mall typology as a landmark building within the inner city can strategically engage the damaged historic buildings of post-earthquake Christchurch in ways that actively preserve these historic remnants.  The main intention of this research is to engage the damaged historic buildings of post-earthquake Christchurch in ways that actively preserve these remnants and are also economically viable. By preserving the remnants as active, working elements of the urban fabric, they act as historic reminders or memorials of the event and associated loss, while also actively participating in the regrowth of the city. The thesis argues that contemporary architecture can play a strategic role in these imperatives.  Overall this research argues that there exists a distinct requirement for large-scale retail in the inner city urban environment that recognises and responds to the damaged cultural and historic architecture of inner city Christchurch. The objective of the thesis is to propose means to rejuvenate not only the economic vitality of central Christchurch,but also its historic character.

Research papers, Lincoln University

The city of Ōtautahi/Christchurch experienced a series of earthquakes that began on September 4th, 2010. The most damaging event occurred on February 22nd, 2011 but significant earthquakes also occurred on June 13th and December 23rd with aftershocks still occurring well into 2012. The resulting disaster is the second deadliest natural disaster in New Zealand’s history with 185 deaths. During 2011 the Canterbury earthquakes were one of the costliest disasters worldwide with an expected cost of up to $NZ30 billion. Hundreds of commercial buildings and thousands of houses have been destroyed or are to be demolished and extensive repairs are needed for infrastructure to over 100,000 homes. As many as 8,900 people simply abandoned their homes and left the city in the first few months after the February event (Newell, 2012), and as many as 50,000 may leave during 2012. In particular, young whānau and single young women comprised a disproportionate number of these migrants, with evidence of a general movement to the North Island. Te Puni Kōkiri sought a mix of quantitative and qualitative research to examine the social and economic impacts of the Christchurch earthquakes on Māori and their whānau. The result of this work will be a collection of evidence to inform policy to support and assist Māori and their whānau during the recovery/rebuild phases. To that end, this report triangulates available statistical and geographical information with qualitative data gathered over 2010 and 2011 by a series of interviews conducted with Māori who experienced the dramatic events associated with the earthquakes. A Māori research team at Lincoln University was commissioned to undertake the research as they were already engaged in transdisciplinary research (began in the May 2010), that focused on quickly gathering data from a range of Māori who experienced the disaster, including relevant economic, environmental, social and cultural factors in the response and recovery of Māori to these events. Participants for the qualitative research were drawn from Māori whānau who both stayed and left the city. Further data was available from ongoing projects and networks that the Lincoln research team was already involved in, including interviews with Māori first responders and managers operating in the CBD on the day of the February event. Some limited data is also available from younger members of affected whānau. Māori in Ōtautahi/Christchurch City have exhibited their own culturally-attuned collective responses to the disaster. However, it is difficult to ascertain Māori demographic changes due to a lack of robust statistical frameworks but Māori outward migration from the city is estimated to range between 560 and 1,100 people. The mobility displayed by Māori demonstrates an important but unquantified response by whānau to this disaster, with emigration to Australia presenting an attractive option for young Māori, an entrenched phenomenon that correlates to cyclical downturns and the long-term decline of the New Zealand economy. It is estimated that at least 315 Māori have emigrated from the Canterbury region to Australia post-quake, although the disaster itself may be only one of a series of events that has prompted such a decision. Māori children made up more than one in four of the net loss of children aged 6 to 15 years enrolled in schools in Greater Christchurch over the year to June 2011. Research literature identifies depression affecting a small but significant number of children one to two years post-disaster and points to increasing clinical and organisational demands for Māori and other residents of the city. For those residents in the eastern or coastal suburbs – home to many of the city’s Māori population - severe damage to housing, schools, shops, infrastructure, and streets has meant disruption to their lives, children’s schooling, employment, and community functioning. Ongoing abandonment of homes by many has meant a growing sense of unease and loss of security, exacerbated by arson, burglaries, increased drinking, a stalled local and national economy, and general confusion about the city’s future. Māori cultural resilience has enabled a considerable network of people, institutions, and resources being available to Māori , most noticeably through marae and their integral roles of housing, as a coordinating hub, and their arguing for the wider affected communities of Christchurch. Relevant disaster responses need to be discussed within whānau, kōhanga, kura, businesses, communities, and wider neighbourhoods. Comprehensive disaster management plans need to be drafted for all iwi in collaboration with central government, regional, and city or town councils. Overall, Māori are remarkably philosophical about the effects of the disaster, with many proudly relishing their roles in what is clearly a historic event of great significance to the city and country. Most believe that ‘being Māori’ has helped cope with the disaster, although for some this draws on a collective history of poverty and marginalisation, features that contribute to the vulnerability of Māori to such events. While the recovery and rebuild phases offer considerable options for Māori and iwi, with Ngāi Tahu set to play an important stakeholder in infrastructural, residential, and commercial developments, some risk and considerable unknowns are evident. Considerable numbers of Māori may migrate into the Canterbury region for employment in the rebuild, and trades training strategies have already been established. With many iwi now increasingly investing in property, the risks from significant earthquakes are now more transparent, not least to insurers and the reinsurance sector. Iwi authorities need to be appraised of insurance issues and ensure sufficient coverage exists and investments and developments are undertaken with a clear understanding of the risks from natural hazards and exposure to future disasters.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Disasters are rare events with major consequences; yet comparatively little is known about managing employee needs in disaster situations. Based on case studies of four organisations following the devastating earthquakes of 2010 - 2011 in Christchurch, New Zealand, this paper presents a framework using redefined notions of employee needs and expectations, and charting the ways in which these influence organisational recovery and performance. Analysis of in-depth interview data from 47 respondents in four organisations highlighted the evolving nature of employee needs and the crucial role of middle management leadership in mitigating the effects of disasters. The findings have counterintuitive implications for human resource functions in a disaster, suggesting that organisational justice forms a central framework for managing organisational responses to support and engage employees for promoting business recovery.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

There is a growing body of research into the effects of micronutrients on human mental health. There is evidence that multi-ingredient formulas are beneficial especially in relation to serious mental health disorders such as mood and anxiety disorders, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder and obsessive-compulsive disorders. However there is almost no scientific research which looks at the effects of these formulas in an animal population. Therefore the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a micronutrient formula, EMPowerplus, on anxiety behaviour in rats, and whether there is a relationship between dose and anxiolytic effect. In order to investigate this 40 male and 40 female rats received a diet consisting of either 0%, 1.25%, 2.5% or 5% EMP+ from when they were weaned (post natal day 30) until the end of testing 141 days later. Animals were tested in a Y maze, a light-dark emergence box and an open field at mid-adulthood (PND 136-138) and late adulthood (PND 186-188). Results found that animals receiving the 5% supplemented diet occupied the centre squares the most, occupied the corner squares the least and ambulated the most in the open field compared to the other experimental groups and control groups. No significant differences were found in the Y maze or Light-dark box. Animals were found to display more anxiety-like behaviour at time 2 than at time 1 regardless of receiving a supplemented diet or not. Overall a higher dose of EMP+ was associated with the greatest reduction in anxiety related behaviour. Due to the impact of the September 4th, 2010 Canterbury Earthquake caution should be taken when interpreting these results.

Research papers, Lincoln University

Mitigating the cascade of environmental damage caused by the movement of excess reactive nitrogen (N) from land to sea is currently limited by difficulties in precisely and accurately measuring N fluxes due to variable rates of attenuation (denitrification) during transport. This thesis develops the use of the natural abundance isotopic composition of nitrate (δ15N and δ18O of NO₃-) to integrate the spatialtemporal variability inherent to denitrification, creating an empirical framework for evaluating attenuation during land to water NO₃- transfers. This technique is based on the knowledge that denitrifiers kinetically discriminate against 'heavy' forms of both N and oxygen (O), creating a parallel enrichment in isotopes of both species as the reaction progresses. This discrimination can be quantitatively related to NO₃- attenuation by isotopic enrichment factors (εdenit). However, while these principles are understood, use of NO₃- isotopes to quantify denitrification fluxes in non-marine environments has been limited by, 1) poor understanding of εdenit variability, and, 2) difficulty in distinguishing the extent of mixing of isotopically distinct sources from the imprint of denitrification. Through a combination of critical literature analysis, mathematical modelling, mesocosm to field scale experiments, and empirical studies on two river systems over distance and time, these short comings are parametrised and a template for future NO₃- isotope based attenuation measurements outlined. Published εdenit values (n = 169) are collated in the literature analysis presented in Chapter 2. By evaluating these values in the context of known controllers on the denitrification process, it is found that the magnitude of εdenit, for both δ15N and δ18O, is controlled by, 1) biology, 2) mode of transport through the denitrifying zone (diffusion v. advection), and, 3) nitrification (spatial-temporal distance between nitrification and denitrification). Based on the outcomes of this synthesis, the impact of the three factors identified as controlling εdenit are quantified in the context of freshwater systems by combining simple mathematical modelling and lab incubation studies (comparison of natural variation in biological versus physical expression). Biologically-defined εdenit, measured in sediments collected from four sites along a temperate stream and from three tropical submerged paddy fields, varied from -3‰ to -28‰ depending on the site’s antecedent carbon content. Following diffusive transport to aerobic surface water, εdenit was found to become more homogeneous, but also lower, with the strength of the effect controlled primarily by diffusive distance and the rate of denitrification in the sediments. I conclude that, given the variability in fractionation dynamics at all levels, applying a range of εdenit from -2‰ to -10‰ provides more accurate measurements of attenuation than attempting to establish a site-specific value. Applying this understanding of denitrification's fractionation dynamics, four field studies were conducted to measure denitrification/ NO₃- attenuation across diverse terrestrial → freshwater systems. The development of NO₃- isotopic signatures (i.e., the impact of nitrification, biological N fixation, and ammonia volatilisation on the isotopic 'imprint' of denitrification) were evaluated within two key agricultural regions: New Zealand grazed pastures (Chapter 4) and Philippine lowland submerged rice production (Chapter 5). By measuring the isotopic composition of soil ammonium, NO₃- and volatilised ammonia following the bovine urine deposition, it was determined that the isotopic composition of NO₃ - leached from grazed pastures is defined by the balance between nitrification and denitrification, not ammonia volatilisation. Consequently, NO₃- created within pasture systems was predicted to range from +10‰ (δ15N)and -0.9‰ (δ18O) for non-fertilised fields (N limited) to -3‰ (δ15N) and +2‰ (δ18O) for grazed fertilised fields (N saturated). Denitrification was also the dominant determinant of NO₃- signatures in the Philippine rice paddy. Using a site-specific εdenit for the paddy, N inputs versus attenuation were able to be calculated, revealing that >50% of available N in the top 10 cm of soil was denitrified during land preparation, and >80% of available N by two weeks post-transplanting. Intriguingly, this denitrification was driven by rapid NO₃- production via nitrification of newly mineralised N during land preparation activities. Building on the relevant range of εdenit established in Chapters 2 and 3, as well as the soil-zone confirmation that denitrification was the primary determinant of NO₃- isotopic composition, two long-term longitudinal river studies were conducted to assess attenuation during transport. In Chapter 6, impact and recovery dynamics in an urban stream were assessed over six months along a longitudinal impact gradient using measurements of NO₃- dual isotopes, biological populations, and stream chemistry. Within 10 days of the catastrophic Christchurch earthquake, dissolved oxygen in the lowest reaches was <1 mg l⁻¹, in-stream denitrification accelerated (attenuating 40-80% of sewage N), microbial biofilm communities changed, and several benthic invertebrate taxa disappeared. To test the strength of this method for tackling the diffuse, chronic N loading of streams in agricultural regions, two years of longitudinal measurements of NO₃- isotopes were collected. Attenuation was negatively correlated with NO₃- concentration, and was highly dependent on rainfall: 93% of calculated attenuation (20 kg NO₃--N ha⁻¹ y⁻¹) occurred within 48 h of rainfall. The results of these studies demonstrate the power of intense measurements of NO₃- stable isotope for distinguishing temporal and spatial trends in NO₃ - loss pathways, and potentially allow for improved catchment-scale management of agricultural intensification. Overall this work now provides a more cohesive understanding for expanding the use of NO₃- isotopes measurements to generate accurate understandings of the controls on N losses. This information is becoming increasingly important to predict ecosystem response to future changes, such the increasing agricultural intensity needed to meet global food demand, which is occurring synergistically with unpredictable global climate change.