In this thesis, focus is given to develop methodologies for rapidly estimating specific components of loss and downtime functions. The thesis proposes methodologies for deriving loss functions by (i) considering individual component performance; (ii) grouping them as per their performance characteristics; and (iii) applying them to similar building usage categories. The degree of variation in building stock and understanding their characteristics are important factors to be considered in the loss estimation methodology and the field surveys carried out to collect data add value to the study. To facilitate developing ‘downtime’ functions, this study investigates two key components of downtime: (i) time delay from post-event damage assessment of properties; and (ii) time delay in settling the insurance claims lodged. In these two areas, this research enables understanding of critical factors that influence certain aspects of downtime and suggests approaches to quantify those factors. By scrutinising the residential damage insurance claims data provided by the Earthquake Commission (EQC) for the 2010- 2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), this work provides insights into various processes of claims settlement, the time taken to complete them and the EQC loss contributions to building stock in Christchurch city and Canterbury region. The study has shown diligence in investigating the EQC insurance claim data obtained from the CES to get new insights and build confidence in the models developed and the results generated. The first stage of this research develops contribution functions (probabilistic relationships between the expected losses for a wide range of building components and the building’s maximum response) for common types of claddings used in New Zealand buildings combining the probabilistic density functions (developed using the quantity of claddings measured from Christchurch buildings), fragility functions (obtained from the published literature) and cost functions (developed based on inputs from builders) through Monte Carlo simulations. From the developed contribution functions, glazing, masonry veneer, monolithic and precast concrete cladding systems are found to incur 50% loss at inter-storey drift levels equal to 0.027, 0.003, 0.005 and 0.011, respectively. Further, the maximum expected cladding loss for glazing, masonry veneer, monolithic, precast concrete cladding systems are found to be 368.2, 331.9, 365.0, and 136.2 NZD per square meter of floor area, respectively. In the second stage of this research, a detailed cost breakdown of typical buildings designed and built for different purposes is conducted. The contributions of structural and non- structural components to the total building cost are compared for buildings of different usages, and based on the similar ratios of non-structural performance group costs to the structural performance group cost, four-building groups are identified; (i) Structural components dominant group: outdoor sports, stadiums, parkings and long-span warehouses, (ii) non- structural drift-sensitive components dominant group: houses, single-storey suburban buildings (all usages), theatres/halls, workshops and clubhouses, (iii) non-structural acceleration- sensitive components dominant group: hospitals, research labs, museums and retail/cold stores, and (iv) apartments, hotels, offices, industrials, indoor sports, classrooms, devotionals and aquariums. By statistically analysing the cost breakdowns, performance group weighting factors are proposed for structural, and acceleration-sensitive and drift-sensitive non-structural components for all four building groups. Thus proposed building usage groupings and corresponding weighting factors facilitate rapid seismic loss estimation of any type of building given the EDPs at storey levels are known. A model for the quantification of post-earthquake inspection duration is developed in the third stage of this research. Herein, phase durations for the three assessment phases (one rapid impact and two rapid building) are computed using the number of buildings needing inspections, the number of engineers involved in inspections and a phase duration coefficient (which considers the median building inspection time, efficiency of engineer and the number of engineers involved in each assessment teams). The proposed model can be used: (i) by national/regional authorities to decide the length of the emergency period following a major earthquake, and estimate the number of engineers required to conduct a post-earthquake inspection within the desired emergency period, and (ii) to quantify the delay due to inspection for the downtime modelling framework. The final stage of this research investigates the repair costs and insurance claim settlement time for damaged residential buildings in the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. Based on the EQC claim settlement process, claims are categorized into three groups; (i) Small Claims: claims less than NZD15,000 which were settled through cash payment, (ii) Medium Claims: claims less than NZD100,000 which were managed through Canterbury Home Repair Programme (CHRP), and (iii) Large Claims: claims above NZD100,000 which were managed by an insurance provider. The regional loss ratio (RLR) for greater Christchurch for three events inducing shakings of approximate seismic intensities 6, 7, and 8 are found to be 0.013, 0.066, and 0.171, respectively. Furthermore, the claim duration (time between an event and the claim lodgement date), assessment duration (time between the claim lodgement day and the most recent assessment day), and repair duration (time between the most recent assessment day and the repair completion day) for the insured residential buildings in the region affected by the Canterbury earthquake sequence is found to be in the range of 0.5-4 weeks, 1.5- 5 months, and 1-3 years, respectively. The results of this phase will provide useful information to earthquake engineering researchers working on seismic risk/loss and insurance modelling.
The research is funded by Callaghan Innovation (grant number MAIN1901/PROP-69059-FELLOW-MAIN) and the Ministry of Transport New Zealand in partnership with Mainfreight Limited. Need – The freight industry is facing challenges related to climate change, including natural hazards and carbon emissions. These challenges impact the efficiency of freight networks, increase costs, and negatively affect delivery times. To address these challenges, freight logistics modelling should consider multiple variables, such as natural hazards, sustainability, and emission reduction strategies. Freight operations are complex, involving various factors that contribute to randomness, such as the volume of freight being transported, the location of customers, and truck routes. Conventional methods have limitations in simulating a large number of variables. Hence, there is a need to develop a method that can incorporate multiple variables and support freight sustainable development. Method - A minimal viable model (MVM) method was proposed to elicit tacit information from industrial clients for building a minimally sufficient simulation model at the early modelling stages. The discrete-event simulation (DES) method was applied using Arena® software to create simulation models for the Auckland and Christchurch corridor, including regional pick-up and delivery (PUD) models, Christchurch city delivery models, and linehaul models. Stochastic variables in freight operations such as consignment attributes, customer locations, and truck routes were incorporated in the simulation. The geographic information system (GIS) software ArcGIS Pro® was used to identify and analyse industrial data. The results obtained from the GIS software were applied to create DES models. Life cycle assessment (LCA) models were developed for both diesel and battery electric (BE) trucks to compare their life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and total cost of ownership (TCO) and support GHG emissions reduction. The line-haul model also included natural hazards in several scenarios, and the simulation was used to forecast the stock level of Auckland and Christchurch depots in response to each corresponding scenario. Results – DES is a powerful technique that can be employed to simulate and evaluate freight operations that exhibit high levels of variability, such as regional pickup and delivery (PUD) and linehaul. Through DES, it becomes possible to analyse multiple factors within freight operations, including transportation modes, routes, scheduling, and processing times, thereby offering valuable insights into the performance, efficiency, and reliability of the system. In addition, GIS is a useful tool for analysing and visualizing spatial data in freight operations. This is exemplified by their ability to simulate the travelling salesman problem (TSP) and conduct cluster analysis. Consequently, the integration of GIS into DES modelling is essential for improving the accuracy and reliability of freight operations analysis. The outcomes of the simulation were utilised to evaluate the ecological impact of freight transport by performing emission calculations and generating low-carbon scenarios to identify approaches for reducing the carbon footprint. LCA models were developed based on simulation results. Results showed that battery-electric trucks (BE) produced more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the cradle phase due to battery manufacturing but substantially less GHG emissions in the use phase because of New Zealand's mostly renewable energy sources. While the transition to BE could significantly reduce emissions, the financial aspect is not compelling, as the total cost of ownership (TCO) for the BE truck was about the same for ten years, despite a higher capital investment for the BE. Moreover, external incentives are necessary to justify a shift to BE trucks. By using simulation methods, the effectiveness of response plans for natural hazards can be evaluated, and the system's vulnerabilities can be identified and mitigated to minimize the risk of disruption. Simulation models can also be utilized to simulate adaptation plans to enhance the system's resilience to natural disasters. Novel contributions – The study employed a combination of DES and GIS methods to incorporate a large number of stochastic variables and driver’s decisions into freight logistics modelling. Various realistic operational scenarios were simulated, including customer clustering and PUD truck allocation. This showed that complex pickup and delivery routes with high daily variability can be represented using a model of roads and intersections. Geographic regions of high customer density, along with high daily variability could be represented by a two-tier architecture. The method could also identify delivery runs for a whole city, which has potential usefulness in market expansion to new territories. In addition, a model was developed to address carbon emissions and total cost of ownership of battery electric trucks. This showed that the transition was not straightforward because the economics were not compelling, and that policy interventions – a variety were suggested - could be necessary to encourage the transition to decarbonised freight transport. A model was developed to represent the effect of natural disasters – such as earthquake and climate change – on road travel and detour times in the line haul freight context for New Zealand. From this it was possible to predict the effects on stock levels for a variety of disruption scenarios (ferry interruption, road detours). Results indicated that some centres rather than others may face higher pressure and longer-term disturbance after the disaster subsided. Remedies including coastal shipping were modelled and shown to have the potential to limit the adverse effects. A philosophical contribution was the development of a methodology to adapt the agile method into the modelling process. This has the potential to improve the clarification of client objectives and the validity of the resulting model.
The assessment of damage and remaining capacity after an earthquake is an immediate measure to determine whether a reinforced concrete (RC) building is usable and safe for occupants. The recent Christchurch earthquake (22 February 2011) caused a uniquely severe level of structural damage to modern buildings, resulting in extensive damage to the building stock. About 60% of damaged multistorey concrete buildings (3 storeys and up) were demolished after the earthquake, and the cost of reconstruction amounted to 40 billion NZD. The aftermath disclosed issues of great complexities regarding the future of the RC buildings damaged by the earthquakes. This highlighted the importance of post-event decision-making, as the outcome will allow the appropriate course of action—demolition, repair or acceptance of the existing building—to be considered. To adopt the proper strategy, accurate assessment of the residual capacity and the level of damage is required. This doctoral dissertation aims to assess the damage and remaining capacity at constituent material and member level (i.e., concrete material and beams) through a systematic approach in an attempt to address part of an existing gap in the available literature. Since the residual capacity of RC members is not unique and depends on previously applied loading history, post-event residual capacity in this study was assessed in terms of fraction of fatigue life (i.e., the number of cycles required to failure). This research comprises three main parts: (1) residual capacity and damage assessment at material level (i.e., concrete), (2) post-yield bond deterioration and damage assessment at the interface of steel and concrete, and, finally, (3) residual capacity and damage assessment at member level (i.e., RC beam). The first part of this research focused on damage assessment and the remaining capacity of concrete from a material point of view. It aimed to employ appropriate and reliable durability-based testing and image-detection techniques to quantify deterioration in the mechanical properties of concrete on the basis that stress-induced damage occurred in the microstructural system of the concrete material. To this end, in the first phase, a feasibility study was conducted in which a combination of oxygen permeability, electrical resistivity and porosity tests were assessed to determine if they were robust and reliable enough to reveal damage which occurred in the microstructural system of concrete. The results, in terms of change in permeability, electrical resistivity and porosity features of disk samples taken from the middle third of damaged concrete cylinders (200 mm × 100 mm) monotonically pre-loaded to 50%, 70%, 90% and 95% of the ultimate strength (f′c), showed the permeability test is a reliable tool to identify the degree of damage, due to its high sensitivity to the load-induced microcracking. In parallel, to determine the residual capacity, the companion damaged concrete cylinders already loaded to the same level of compressive strength were reloaded up to failure. Comparing the stress–strain relationship of damaged concrete with intact material, it was also found that the strain capacity of the reloaded pre-damaged concrete cylinders decreases while strength remained virtually unchanged. In the second phase of the first part, a fluorescent microscopy technique was used to assess the damage and develop a correlation between material degradation, by virtue of the geometrical features, and damage to the concrete. To account for the effect of confinement and cyclic loading, in the third phase, the residual capacity and damage assessment of unconfined and GFRP confined concrete cylinders subjected to low-cycle fatigue loading, was investigated. Similar to the first phase, permeability testing technique was used to provide an indirect evaluation of fatigue damage. Finally, in the fourth phase of the first part, the suitability of permeability testing technique to assess damage was evaluated for cored concrete taken from three types of RC members: columns, beams and a beam-column joint. In view of the fact that the composite action of an RC member is highly dependent on the bond between reinforcement and surrounding concrete, understanding the deterioration of the bond in the post-yield range of strain in steel was crucial to assess damage at member level. Therefore, in the second phase of this research, a state-of-the- art distributed fibre optic strain sensor system (DFOSSS) system was used to evaluate bond deterioration in a cantilever RC beam subjected to monotonic lateral loading. The technology allowed the continuous capture of strain, every 2.6 mm along the length, in both reinforcing bars and cover concrete. The strain profile provided a basis by which the slip, axial stress and bond stress distributions were then established. In the third part, the study focused on the damage assessment and residual capacity of seven half-scale RC beams subjected to a constant-amplitude cyclic loading protocol. In the first stage, the structural performances of three specimens under constant-amplitude fatigue at 1%, 2% and 4% chord rotation (drift) were examined. In parallel, the number of cycles to failure, degradation in strength, stiffness and energy dissipation were characterized. In the second stage, four RC beams were subjected to loading up to 70% and 90% of their fatigue life, at 2% and 4% drift, and then monotonically pulled up to failure. To determine the residual flexural capacity, the lateral force–displacement results of pre-damaged specimens were compared with an undamaged specimen subjected to only monotonic loading. The study showed significant losses in strength, deformability, stiffness and energy dissipation capacity. A nonlinear finite element analysis (FEA) using concrete damage plasticity (CDP) model was also conducted in ABAQUS to numerically investigate the behaviour of the tested specimen. The results of the FE simulations indicated a reasonable response compared with the behaviour of the test specimen in terms of force–displacement and cracking pattern. During the Christchurch earthquake it was observed that the loading history has a significant influence on structural responses. While in conventional pseudo-static loading protocol, internal forces can be redistributed along the plastic length: there is little chance for structures undergoing high initial loading amplitude to redistribute pertinent stresses. As a result, in the third phase of this part, the effect of high rate of loading on the behaviour of seismically designed RC beams was investigated. Two half-scale cantilever RC beams were subjected to similar constant-amplitude cyclic loading at 2% and 4% drifts, but at a rate of 500 mm/s. Due to the incapability of conventional measuring techniques, a motion-tracking system was employed for data acquisition with the high-speed tests. The effect of rate of loading on the fatigue life of specimens (i.e., the number of cycles required to failure), secant stiffness, failure mode, cracking pattern, beam elongations and bar fracture surface were analysed. Integrating the results of all parts of this research has resulted in a better understanding of residual capacity and the development of damage at both the material and member level by using a low-cycle fatigue approach.
