This paper investigates the effects of variability in source rupture parameters on site-specific physics-based simulated ground motions, ascertained through the systematic analysis of ground motion intensity measures. As a preliminary study, we consider simulations of the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake using the Graves and Pitarka (2015) methodology. The effects of source variability are considered via a sensitivity study in which parameters (hypocentre location, earthquake magnitude, average rupture velocity, fault geometry and the Brune stress parameter) are individually varied by one standard deviation. The sensitivity of simulated ground motion intensity measures are subsequently compared against observational data. The preliminary results from this study indicate that uncertainty in the stress parameter and the rupture velocity have the most significant effect on the high frequency amplitudes. Conversely, magnitude uncertainty was found to be most influential on the spectral acceleration amplitudes at low frequencies. Further work is required to extend this preliminary study to exhaustively consider more events and to include parameter covariance. The ultimate results of this research will assist in the validation of the overall simulation method’s accuracy in capturing various rupture parameters, which is essential for the use of simulated ground motion models in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.
The context of this study is the increasing need for public transport as issues over high private vehicle usage are becoming increasingly obvious. Public transport services need to compete with private transport to improve patronage, and issues with reliability need to be addressed. Bus bunching affects reliability through disruptions to the scheduled headways. The purpose of this study was to collect and analyse data to compare how travel time and dwell time vary, to explore the variation of key variables, and to better understand the sources of these variations. The Orbiter bus service in Christchurch was used as a case study, as it is particularly vulnerable to bus bunching. The dwell time was found to be more variable than travel time. It appeared the Canterbury earthquake had significantly reduced the average speeds for the Orbiter service. In 1964, Newell and Potts described a basic bus bunching theory, which was used as the basis for an Excel bus bunching model. This model allows input variables to vary stochastically. Random values were generated from four specified distributions derived from manually collected data, allowing variance across all bus platforms and buses. However the complexity resulted in stability and difficulty in achieving convergence, so the model was run in single Monte Carlo simulations. The outputs were realistic and showed a higher degree of bunching behaviour than previous models. The model demonstrated bunching phenomena that had not been observed in previous models, including spontaneously un-pairing, overtaking of buses delayed at platforms, and odd-numbered bunches of three buses. Furthermore, the study identified areas of further research for data collection and model development.
This paper presents insights from recent advanced laboratory testing of undisturbed and reconstituted specimens of Christchurch silty-sands. The purpose of the testing was to establish the cyclic strength of silty-sands from sites in the Central Business District (CBD), where liquefaction was observed in 4 September 2010, 22 February 2011, and 13 June 2011. Similar overall strengths were obtained from undisturbed and reconstituted tests prepared at similar densities, albeit with higher variability for the reconstituted specimens. Reconstituted specimens exhibited distinctly different response in terms of lower compressibility during initial loading cycles, and exhibited a more brittle response when large strains were mobilised, particularly for samples with high fines content. Given the lower variability in natural sample response and the possibility of age-related strength to be significant for sites not subjected to earthquakes, high quality undisturbed samples are recommended over the use of reconstituted specimens to establish the cyclic strength of natural sands.
Liquefaction during the 4th September 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield earthquake and large aftershocks in 2011 (Canterbury earthquake sequence, CES) caused severe damage to land and infrastructure within Christchurch, New Zealand. Approximately one third of the total CES-induced financial losses were directly attributable to liq- uefaction and thus highlights the need for local and regional authorities to assess liquefaction hazards for present and future developments. This thesis is the first to conduct paleo-liquefaction studies in eastern Christchurch for the purpose of de- termining approximate return times of liquefaction-inducing earthquakes within the region. The research uncovered evidence for pre-CES liquefaction dated by radiocarbon and cross-cutting relationships as post-1660 to pre-1905. Additional paleo-liquefaction investigations within the eastern Christchurch suburb of Avon- dale, and the northern township of Kaiapoi, revealed further evidence for pre-CES liquefaction. Pre-CES liquefaction in Avondale is dated as post-1321 and pre-1901, while the Kaiapoi features likely formed during three distinct episodes: post-1458 and possibly during the 1901 Cheviot earthquake, post-1297 to pre-1901, and pre-1458. Evaluation of the liquefaction potential of active faults within the Can- terbury region indicates that many faults have the potential to cause widespread liquefaction within Avondale and Kaiapoi. The identification of pre-CES liquefac- tion confirms that these areas have previously liquefied, and indicates that residen- tial development in eastern Christchurch between 1860 and 2005 occurred in areas containing geologic evidence for pre-CES liquefaction. Additionally, on the basis of detailed field and GIS-based mapping and geospatial-statistical analysis, the distribution and severity of liquefaction and lateral spreading within the eastern Christchurch suburb of Avonside is shown in this study to be strongly in uenced by geomorphic and topographic variability. This variability is not currently ac- counted for in site-specific liquefaction assessments nor the simplified horizontal displacement models, and accounts for some of the variability between the pre- dicted horizontal displacements and those observed during the CES. This thesis highlights the potential applications of paleo-liquefaction investigations and ge- omorphic mapping to seismic and liquefaction hazard assessments and may aid future land-use planning decisions.
During the 2011 M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, ground motions recorded near the epicentre showed a significant spatial variation. The Te Mara farm (WTMC) station, the nearest to the epicentre, recorded 1g and 2.7g of horizontal and vertical peak ground accelerations (PGA), respectively. The nearby Waiu Gorge (WIGC) station recorded a horizontal PGA of 0.8g. Interestingly, however, the Culverden Airlie Farm (CULC) station that was very closely located to WIGC recorded a horizontal PGA of only 0.25g. This poster demonstrates how the local geological condition could have contributed to the spatially variable ground motions observed in the North Canterbury, based on the results of recently conducted geophysical investigations. The surficial geology of this area is dominated by alluvial gravel deposits with traces of silt. A borehole log showed that the thickness of the sediments at WTMC is over 76 metres. Interestingly, the shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles obtained from the three strong motion sites suggest unusually high shear wave velocity of the gravelly sediments. The velocity of sediments and the lack of clear peaks in the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratio at WTMC suggest that the large ground motion observed at this station was likely caused by the proximity of the station to the causative fault itself; the site effect was likely insignificant. Comparisons of H/V spectral ratios and Vs profiles suggest that the sediment thickness is much smaller at WIGC compared with CULC; the high PGA at WIGC was likely influenced by the high-frequency amplification caused by the response of shallow sediments.
This paper describes pounding damage sustained by buildings and bridges in the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Approximately 6% of buildings in Christchurch CBD were observed to have suffered some form of serious pounding damage. Almost all of this pounding damage occurred in masonry buildings, further highlighting their vulnerability to this phenomenon. Modern buildings were found to be vulnerable to pounding damage where overly stiff and strong ‘flashing’ components were installed in existing building separations. Soil variability is identified as a key aspect that amplifies the relative movement of buildings, and hence increases the likelihood of pounding damage. Pounding damage in bridges was found to be relatively minor and infrequent in the Christchurch earthquake.
The overarching goal of this dissertation is to improve predictive capabilities of geotechnical seismic site response analyses by incorporating additional salient physical phenomena that influence site effects. Specifically, multidimensional wave-propagation effects that are neglected in conventional 1D site response analyses are incorporated by: (1) combining results of 3D regional-scale simulations with 1D nonlinear wave-propagation site response analysis, and (2) modelling soil heterogeneity in 2D site response analyses using spatially-correlated random fields to perturb soil properties. A method to combine results from 3D hybrid physics-based ground motion simulations with site-specific nonlinear site response analyses was developed. The 3D simulations capture 3D ground motion phenomena on a regional scale, while the 1D nonlinear site response, which is informed by detailed site-specific soil characterization data, can capture site effects more rigorously. Simulations of 11 moderate-to-large earthquakes from the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) at 20 strong motion stations (SMS) were used to validate simulations with observed ground motions. The predictions were compared to those from an empirically-based ground motion model (GMM), and from 3D simulations with simplified VS30- based site effects modelling. By comparing all predictions to observations at seismic recording stations, it was found that the 3D physics-based simulations can predict ground motions with comparable bias and uncertainty as the GMM, albeit, with significantly lower bias at long periods. Additionally, the explicit modelling of nonlinear site-response improves predictions significantly compared to the simplified VS30-based approach for soft-soil or atypical sites that exhibit exceptionally strong site effects. A method to account for the spatial variability of soils and wave scattering in 2D site response analyses was developed and validated against a database of vertical array sites in California. The inputs required to run the 2D analyses are nominally the same as those required for 1D analyses (except for spatial correlation parameters), enabling easier adoption in practice. The first step was to create the platform and workflow, and to perform a sensitivity study involving 5,400 2D model realizations to investigate the influence of random field input parameters on wave scattering and site response. Boundary conditions were carefully assessed to understand their effect on the modelled response and select appropriate assumptions for use on a 2D model with lateral heterogeneities. Multiple ground-motion intensity measures (IMs) were analyzed to quantify the influence from random field input parameters and boundary conditions. It was found that this method is capable of scattering seismic waves and creating spatially-varying ground motions at the ground surface. The redistribution of ground-motion energy across wider frequency bands, and the scattering attenuation of high-frequency waves in 2D analyses, resemble features observed in empirical transfer functions (ETFs) computed in other studies. The developed 2D method was subsequently extended to more complicated multi-layer soil profiles and applied to a database of 21 vertical array sites in California to test its appropriate- ness for future predictions. Again, different boundary condition and input motion assumptions were explored to extend the method to the in-situ conditions of a vertical array (with a sensor embedded in the soil). ETFs were compared to theoretical transfer functions (TTFs) from conventional 1D analyses and 2D analyses with heterogeneity. Residuals of transfer-function- based IMs, and IMs of surface ground motions, were also used as validation metrics. The spatial variability of transfer-function-based IMs was estimated from 2D models and compared to the event-to-event variability from ETFs. This method was found capable of significantly improving predictions of median ETF amplification factors, especially for sites that display higher event-to-event variability. For sites that are well represented by 1D methods, the 2D approach can underpredict amplification factors at higher modes, suggesting that the level of heterogeneity may be over-represented by the 2D random field models used in this study.
This paper describes the pounding damage sustained by buildings in the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Approximately 6% of buildings in Christchurch CBD were observed to have suffered some form of serious pounding damage. Typical and exceptional examples of building pounding damage are presented and discussed. Almost all building pounding damage occurred in unreinforced masonry buildings, highlighting their vulnerability to this phenomenon. Modern buildings were found to be vulnerable to pounding damage where overly stiff and strong ‘flashing’ components were installed in existing building separations. Soil variability is identified as a key aspect that amplifies the relative movement of buildings, and hence increases the likelihood of pounding damage. Building pounding damage is compared to the predicted critical pounding weaknesses that have been identified in previous analytical research.
This paper describes the pounding damage sustained by buildings in the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Approximately 6% of buildings in Christchurch CBD were observed to have suffered some form of serious pounding damage. Typical and exceptional examples of building pounding damage are presented and discussed. Almost all building pounding damage occurred in unreinforced masonry buildings, highlighting their vulnerability to this phenomenon. Modern buildings were found to be vulnerable to pounding damage where overly stiff and strong ‘flashing’ components were installed in existing building separations. Soil variability is identified as a key aspect that amplifies the relative movement of buildings, and hence increases the likelihood of pounding damage. Building pounding damage is compared to the predicted critical pounding weaknesses that have been identified in previous analytical research.
In this paper, we perform hybrid broadband (0-10 Hz) ground motion simulations for the ten most significant events (Mw 4.7-7.1) in the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. Taking advantage of having repeated recordings at same stations, we validate our simulations using both recordings and an empirically-developed ground motion prediction equation (GMPE). The simulation clearly captures the sedimentary basin amplification and the rupture directivity effects. Quantitative comparisons of the simulations with both recordings and the GMPE, as well as analyses of the total residuals (indicating model bias) show that simulations perform better than the empirical GMPE, especially for long period. To scrutinize the ground motion variability, we partitioned the total residuals into different components. The total residual appears to be unbiased, and the use of a 3D velocity structure reduces the long period systematic bias particularly for stations located close to the Banks Peninsula volcanic area.
A natural disaster will inevitably strike New Zealand in the coming years, damaging educational facilities. Delays in building quality replacement facilities will lead to short-term disruption of education, risking long-term inequalities for the affected students. The Christchurch earthquake demonstrated the issues arising from a lack of school planning and support. This research proposes a system that can effectively provide rapid, prefabricated, primary schools in post-disaster environments. The aim is to continue education for children in the short term, while using construction that is suitable until the total replacement of the given school is completed. The expandable prefabricated architecture meets the strength, time, and transport requirements to deliver a robust, rapid relief temporary construction. It is also adaptable to any area within New Zealand. This design solution supports personal well-being and mitigates the risk of educational gaps, PTSD linked with anxiety and depression, and many other mental health disorders that can impact students and teachers after a natural disaster.
Bulk rock strength is greatly dependent on fracture density, so that reductions in rock strength associated with faulting and fracturing should be reflected by reduced shear coupling and hence S-wave velocity. This study is carried out along the Canterbury rangefront and in Otago. Both lie within the broader plate boundary deformation zone in the South Island of New Zealand. Therefore built structures are often, , located in areas where there are undetected or poorly defined faults with associated rock strength reduction. Where structures are sited near to, or across, such faults or fault-zones, they may sustain both shaking and ground deformation damage during an earthquake. Within this zone, management of seismic hazards needs to be based on accurate identification of the potential fault damage zone including the likely width of off-plane deformation. Lateral S-wave velocity variability provides one method of imaging and locating damage zones and off-plane deformation. This research demonstrates the utility of Multi-Channel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) to aid land-use planning in such fault-prone settings. Fundamentally, MASW uses surface wave dispersive characteristics to model a near surface profile of S-wave velocity variability as a proxy for bulk rock strength. The technique can aid fault-zone planning not only by locating and defining the extent of fault-zones, but also by defining within-zone variability that is readily correlated with measurable rock properties applicable to both foundation design and the distribution of surface deformation. The calibration sites presented here have well defined field relationships and known fault-zone exposure close to potential MASW survey sites. They were selected to represent a range of progressively softer lithologies from intact and fractured Torlesse Group basement hard rock (Dalethorpe) through softer Tertiary cover sediments (Boby’s Creek) and Quaternary gravels. This facilitated initial calibration of fracture intensity at a high-velocity-contrast site followed by exploration of the limits of shear zone resolution at lower velocity contrasts. Site models were constructed in AutoCAD in order to demonstrate spatial correlations between S-wave velocity and fault zone features. Site geology was incorporated in the models, along with geomorphology, river profiles, scanline locations and crosshole velocity measurement locations. Spatial data were recorded using a total-station survey. The interpreted MASW survey results are presented as two dimensional snapshot cross-sections of the three dimensional calibration-site models. These show strong correlations between MASW survey velocities and site geology, geomorphology, fluvial profiles and geotechnical parameters and observations. Correlations are particularly pronounced where high velocity contrasts exist, whilst weaker correlations are demonstrated in softer lithologies. Geomorphic correlations suggest that off-plane deformation can be imaged and interpreted in the presence of suitable topographic survey data. A promising new approach to in situ and laboratory soft-rock material and mass characterisation is also presented using a Ramset nail gun. Geotechnical investigations typically involve outcrop and laboratory scale determination of rock mass and material properties such as fracture density and unconfined compressive strength (UCS). This multi-scale approach is espoused by this study, with geotechnical and S-wave velocity data presented at multiple scales, from survey scale sonic velocity measurements, through outcrop scale scanline and crosshole sonic velocity measurements to laboratory scale property determination and sonic velocity measurements. S-wave velocities invariably increased with decreasing scale. These scaling relationships and strategies for dealing with them are investigated and presented. Finally, the MASW technique is applied to a concealed fault on the Taieri Ridge in Macraes Flat, Central Otago. Here, high velocity Otago Schist is faulted against low velocity sheared Tertiary and Quaternary sediments. This site highlights the structural sensitivity of the technique by apparently constraining the location of the principal fault, which had been ambiguous after standard processing of the seismic reflection data. Processing of the Taieri Ridge dataset has further led to the proposal of a novel surface wave imaging technique termed Swept Frequency Imaging (SFI). This inchoate technique apparently images the detailed structure of the fault-zone, and is in agreement with the conventionally-determined fault location and an existing partial trench. Overall, the results are promising and are expected to be supported by further trenching in the near future.
This research investigates the validation of simulated ground motions on complex structural systems. In this study, the seismic responses of two buildings are compared when they are subjected to as-recorded ground motions and simulated ones. The buildings have been designed based on New Zealand codes and physically constructed in Christchurch, New Zealand. The recorded ground motions are selected from 40 stations database of the historical 22 Feb. 2011 Christchurch earthquake. The Graves and Pitarka (2015) methodology is used to generate the simulated ground motions. The geometric mean of maximum inter-story drift and peak floor acceleration are selected as the main seismic responses. Also, the variation of these parameters due to record to record variability are investigated. Moreover, statistical hypothesis testing is used to investigate the similarity of results between observed and simulated ground motions. The results indicate a general agreement between the peak floor acceleration calculated by simulated and recorded ground motions for two buildings. While according to the hypothesis tests result, the difference in drift can be significant for the building with a shorter period. The results will help engineers and researchers to use or revise the procedure by using simulated ground motions for obtaining seismic responses.
This paper presents an overview of the soil profile characteristics at strong motion station (SMS) locations in the Christchurch Central Business District (CBD) based on recently completed geotechnical site investigations. Given the variability of Christchurch soils, detailed investigations were needed in close vicinity to each SMS. In this regard, CPT, SPT and borehole data, and shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles from surface wave dispersion data in close vicinity to the SMSs have been used to develop detailed representative soil profiles at each site and to determine site classes according to the New Zealand standard NZS1170.5. A disparity between the NZS1170.5 site classes based on Vs and SPT N60 investigation techniques is highlighted, and additional studies are needed to harmonize site classification based on these techniques. The short period mode of vibration of soft deposits above gravels, which are found throughout Christchurch, are compared to the long period mode of vibration of the entire soil profile to bedrock. These two distinct modes of vibration require further investigation to determine their impact on the site response. According to current American and European approaches to seismic site classification, all SMSs were classified as problematic soil sites due to the presence of liquefiable strata, soils which are not directly accounted for by the NZS1170.5 approach.
This dissertation addresses a diverse range of applied aspects in ground motion simulation validation via the response of complex structures. In particular, the following topics are addressed: (i) the investigation of similarity between recorded and simulated ground motions using code-based 3D irregular structural response analysis, (ii) the development of a framework for ground motion simulations validation to identify the cause of differences between paired observed and simulated dataset, and (iii) the illustration of the process of using simulations for seismic performance-based assessment. The application of simulated ground motions is evaluated for utilisation in engineering practice by considering responses of 3D irregular structures. Validation is performed in a code-based context when the NZS1170.5 (NZS1170.5:2004, 2004) provisions are followed for response history analysis. Two real buildings designed by engineers and physically constructed in Christchurch before the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence are considered. The responses are compared when the buildings are subjected to 40 scaled recorded and their subsequent simulated ground motions selected from 22 February 2011 Christchurch. The similarity of recorded and simulated responses is examined using statistical methods such as bootstrapping and hypothesis testing to determine whether the differences are statistically significant. The findings demonstrate the applicability of simulated ground motion when the code-based approach is followed in response history analysis. A conceptual framework is developed to link the differences between the structural response subjected to simulated and recorded ground motions to the differences in their corresponding intensity measures. This framework allows the variability to be partitioned into the proportion that can be “explained” by the differences in ground motion intensity measures and the remaining “unexplained” variability that can be attributed to different complexities such as dynamic phasing of multi-mode response, nonlinearity, and torsion. The application of this framework is examined through a hierarchy of structures reflecting a range of complexity from single-degree-of-freedom to 3D multi-degree-of-freedom systems with different materials, dynamic properties, and structural systems. The study results suggest the areas that ground motion simulation should focus on to improve simulations by prioritising the ground motion intensity measures that most clearly account for the discrepancies in simple to complex structural responses. Three approaches are presented to consider recorded or simulated ground motions within the seismic performance-based assessment framework. Considering the applications of ground motions in hazard and response history analyses, different pathways in utilising ground motions in both areas are explored. Recorded ground motions are drawn from a global database (i.e., NGA-West2 Ancheta et al., 2014). The NZ CyberShake dataset is used to obtain simulations. Advanced ground motion selection techniques (i.e., generalized conditional intensity measure, GCIM) are used for ground motion selection at a few intensity levels. The comparison is performed by investigating the response of an example structure (i.e., 12-storey reinforced concrete special moment frame) located in South Island, NZ. Results are compared and contrasted in terms of hazard, groundmotion selection, structural responses, demand hazard, and collapse risk, then, the probable reasons for differences are discussed. The findings from this study highlight the present opportunities and shortcomings in using simulations in risk assessment. i
Rapid, accurate structural health monitoring (SHM) assesses damage to optimise decision-making. Many SHM methods are designed to track nonlinear stiffness changes as damage. However, highly nonlinear pinched hysteretic systems are problematic in SHM. Model-based SHM often fails as any mismatch between model and measured response dynamics leads to significant error. Thus, modelfree methods of hysteresis loop tracking methods have emerged. This study compares the robustness and accuracy in the presence of significant measurement noise of the proven hysteresis loop analysis (HLA) SHM method with 3 emerging model-free methods and 2 further novel adaptations of these methods using a highly nonlinear, 6-story numerical structure to provide a known ground-truth. Mean absolute errors in identifying a known nonlinear stiffness trajectory assessed at four points over two successive ground motion inputs from September 2010 and February 2011 in Christchurch range from 1.71-10.52%. However, the variability is far wider with maximum errors ranging from 3.90-49.72%, where the second largest maximum absolute error was still 19.74%. The lowest mean and maximum absolute errors were for the HLA method. The next best method had mean absolute error of 2.92% and a maximum of 10.51%. These results show the clear superiority of the HLA method over all current emerging model-free methods designed to manage the highly nonlinear pinching responses common in reinforced concrete structures. These results, combined with high robustness and accuracy in scaled and fullscale experimental studies, provide further validation for using HLA for practical implementation.
The research is funded by Callaghan Innovation (grant number MAIN1901/PROP-69059-FELLOW-MAIN) and the Ministry of Transport New Zealand in partnership with Mainfreight Limited. Need – The freight industry is facing challenges related to climate change, including natural hazards and carbon emissions. These challenges impact the efficiency of freight networks, increase costs, and negatively affect delivery times. To address these challenges, freight logistics modelling should consider multiple variables, such as natural hazards, sustainability, and emission reduction strategies. Freight operations are complex, involving various factors that contribute to randomness, such as the volume of freight being transported, the location of customers, and truck routes. Conventional methods have limitations in simulating a large number of variables. Hence, there is a need to develop a method that can incorporate multiple variables and support freight sustainable development. Method - A minimal viable model (MVM) method was proposed to elicit tacit information from industrial clients for building a minimally sufficient simulation model at the early modelling stages. The discrete-event simulation (DES) method was applied using Arena® software to create simulation models for the Auckland and Christchurch corridor, including regional pick-up and delivery (PUD) models, Christchurch city delivery models, and linehaul models. Stochastic variables in freight operations such as consignment attributes, customer locations, and truck routes were incorporated in the simulation. The geographic information system (GIS) software ArcGIS Pro® was used to identify and analyse industrial data. The results obtained from the GIS software were applied to create DES models. Life cycle assessment (LCA) models were developed for both diesel and battery electric (BE) trucks to compare their life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and total cost of ownership (TCO) and support GHG emissions reduction. The line-haul model also included natural hazards in several scenarios, and the simulation was used to forecast the stock level of Auckland and Christchurch depots in response to each corresponding scenario. Results – DES is a powerful technique that can be employed to simulate and evaluate freight operations that exhibit high levels of variability, such as regional pickup and delivery (PUD) and linehaul. Through DES, it becomes possible to analyse multiple factors within freight operations, including transportation modes, routes, scheduling, and processing times, thereby offering valuable insights into the performance, efficiency, and reliability of the system. In addition, GIS is a useful tool for analysing and visualizing spatial data in freight operations. This is exemplified by their ability to simulate the travelling salesman problem (TSP) and conduct cluster analysis. Consequently, the integration of GIS into DES modelling is essential for improving the accuracy and reliability of freight operations analysis. The outcomes of the simulation were utilised to evaluate the ecological impact of freight transport by performing emission calculations and generating low-carbon scenarios to identify approaches for reducing the carbon footprint. LCA models were developed based on simulation results. Results showed that battery-electric trucks (BE) produced more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the cradle phase due to battery manufacturing but substantially less GHG emissions in the use phase because of New Zealand's mostly renewable energy sources. While the transition to BE could significantly reduce emissions, the financial aspect is not compelling, as the total cost of ownership (TCO) for the BE truck was about the same for ten years, despite a higher capital investment for the BE. Moreover, external incentives are necessary to justify a shift to BE trucks. By using simulation methods, the effectiveness of response plans for natural hazards can be evaluated, and the system's vulnerabilities can be identified and mitigated to minimize the risk of disruption. Simulation models can also be utilized to simulate adaptation plans to enhance the system's resilience to natural disasters. Novel contributions – The study employed a combination of DES and GIS methods to incorporate a large number of stochastic variables and driver’s decisions into freight logistics modelling. Various realistic operational scenarios were simulated, including customer clustering and PUD truck allocation. This showed that complex pickup and delivery routes with high daily variability can be represented using a model of roads and intersections. Geographic regions of high customer density, along with high daily variability could be represented by a two-tier architecture. The method could also identify delivery runs for a whole city, which has potential usefulness in market expansion to new territories. In addition, a model was developed to address carbon emissions and total cost of ownership of battery electric trucks. This showed that the transition was not straightforward because the economics were not compelling, and that policy interventions – a variety were suggested - could be necessary to encourage the transition to decarbonised freight transport. A model was developed to represent the effect of natural disasters – such as earthquake and climate change – on road travel and detour times in the line haul freight context for New Zealand. From this it was possible to predict the effects on stock levels for a variety of disruption scenarios (ferry interruption, road detours). Results indicated that some centres rather than others may face higher pressure and longer-term disturbance after the disaster subsided. Remedies including coastal shipping were modelled and shown to have the potential to limit the adverse effects. A philosophical contribution was the development of a methodology to adapt the agile method into the modelling process. This has the potential to improve the clarification of client objectives and the validity of the resulting model.
Following a disaster, an organisation’s ability to recover is influenced by its internal capacities, but also by the people, organisations, and places to which it is connected. Current approaches to organisational resilience tend to focus predominantly on an organization's internal capacities and do not adequately consider the place-based contexts and networks in which it is embedded. This thesis explores how organisations’ connections may both hinder and enable organisational resilience. Organisations in the Canterbury region of New Zealand experienced significant and repeated disruptions as a result of two major earthquakes and thousands of aftershocks throughout 2010 and 2011. This thesis draws upon 32 case studies of organisations located in three severely damaged town centres in Canterbury to assess the influence that organisations’ place-based connections and relational networks had on their post-earthquake trajectories. The research has four objectives: 1) to examine the ways organisations connected to their local contexts both before and after the earthquakes, 2) to explore the characteristics of the formal and informal networks organisations used to aid their response and recovery, 3) to identify the ways organisations’ connections to their local contexts and support networks influenced their ability to recover following the earthquakes, and finally, 4) to develop approaches to assess resilience that consider these extra-organisational connections. The thesis contests the fiction that organisations recover and adapt independently from their contexts following disasters. Although organisations have a set of internal capacities that enable their post-disaster recovery, they are embedded within external structures that constrain and enable their adaptive options following a disaster. An approach which considers organisations’ contexts and networks as potential sources of organisational resilience has both conceptual and practical value. Refining our understanding of the influence of extra-organisational connections can improve our ability to explain variability in organisational outcomes following disasters and foster new ways to develop and manage organisational resilience.
Post-tensioned timber technology was originally developed and researched at the University of Canterbury (UC) in New Zealand in 2005. It can provide a low-damage seismic design solution for multi-storey mass timber buildings. Since mass timber products, such as cross-laminated timber (CLT), have high in-plane stiffness, a post-tensioned timber shear wall will deform mainly in a rocking mechanism. The moment capacity of the wall at the base is commonly determined using the elastic form of the Modified Monolithic Beam Analogy (MMBA). In the calculation of the moment capacity at the wall base, it is critical to accurately predict the location of the neutral axis and the timber compressive stress distribution. Three 2/3 scale 8.6m tall post-tensioned CLT walls were experimentally tested under quasi-static cyclic loading – both uni-directional and bi-directional- in this study. These specimens included a single wall, a coupled wall, and a C-shaped core-wall. The main objective was to develop post-tensioned C-shaped timber core-walls for tall timber buildings with enhanced lateral strength and stiffness. To better understand the timber compressive stress distributions at the wall base, particle tracking technology (PTT) technology was applied for the first time to investigate the behaviour of the compression toe. Previous post-tensioned timber testing primarily used the displacement measurements to determine the timber compressive behavior at the wall base or rocking interfaces. However, by using PTT technology, the timber strain measurements in the compression zone can be much more accurate as PTT is able to track the movement of many particles on the timber surface. This paper presents experimental testing results of post-tensioned CLT walls with a focus on capturing timber compressive behavior using PTT. The PTT measurements were able to better capture small base rotations which occurred at the onset of gap opening and capture unexpected phenomena in core-wall tests. The single wall test result herein presented indicates that while the MMBA could predict the moment rotation behavior with reasonable accuracy, the peak strain response was under predicted in the compression toe. Further detailed study is required to better understand the complex strain fields generated reflective of the inherent cross-thickness inhomogeneity and material variability of CLT.
Advanced seismic effective-stress analysis is used to scrutinize the liquefaction performance of 55 well-documented case-history sites from Christchurch. The performance of these sites during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence varied significantly, from no liquefaction manifestation at the ground surface (in any of the major events) to severe liquefaction manifestation in multiple events. For the majority of the 55 sites, the simplified liquefaction evaluation procedures, which are conventionally used in engineering practice, could not explain these dramatic differences in the manifestation. Detailed geotechnical characterization and subsequent examination of the soil profile characteristics of the 55 sites identified some similarities but also important differences between sites that manifested liquefaction in the two major events of the sequence (YY-sites) and sites that did not manifest liquefaction in either event (NN-sites). In particular, while the YY-sites and NN-sites are shown to have practically identical critical layer characteristics, they have significant differences with regard to their deposit characteristics including the thickness and vertical continuity of their critical zones and liquefiable materials. A CPT-based effective stress analysis procedure is developed and implemented for the analyses of the 55 case history sites. Key features of this procedure are that, on the one hand, it can be fully automated in a programming environment and, on the other hand, it is directly equivalent (in the definition of cyclic resistance and required input data) to the CPT-based simplified liquefaction evaluation procedures. These features facilitate significantly the application of effective-stress analysis for simple 1D free-field soil-column problems and also provide a basis for rigorous comparisons of the outcomes of effective-stress analyses and simplified procedures. Input motions for the analyses are derived using selected (reference) recordings from the two major events of the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. A step-by-step procedure for the selection of representative reference motions for each site and their subsequent treatment (i.e. deconvolution and scaling) is presented. The focus of the proposed procedure is to address key aspects of spatial variability of ground motion in the near-source region of an earthquake including extended-source effects, path effects, and variation in the deeper regional geology.
Coastal margins are exposed to rising sea levels that present challenging circumstances for natural resource management. This study investigates a rare example of tectonic displacement caused by earthquakes that generated rapid sea-level change in a tidal lagoon system typical of many worldwide. This thesis begins by evaluating the coastal squeeze effects caused by interactions between relative sea-level (RSL) rise and the built environment of Christchurch, New Zealand, and also examples of release from similar effects in areas of uplift where land reclamations were already present. Quantification of area gains and losses demonstrated the importance of natural lagoon expansion into areas of suitable elevation under conditions of RSL rise and showed that they may be necessary to offset coastal squeeze losses experienced elsewhere. Implications of these spatial effects include the need to provide accommodation space for natural ecosystems under RSL rise, yet other land-uses are likely to be present in the areas required. Consequently, the resilience of these environments depends on facilitating transitions between human land-uses either proactively or in response to disaster events. Principles illustrated by co-seismic sea-level change are generally applicable to climate change adaptation due to the similarity of inundation effects. Furthermore, they highlight the potential role of non-climatic factors in determining the overall trajectory of change. Chapter 2 quantifies impacts on riparian wetland ecosystems over an eight year period post- quake. Coastal wetlands were overwhelmed by RSL rise and recovery trajectories were surprisingly slow. Four risk factors were identified from the observed changes: 1) the encroachment of anthropogenic land-uses, 2) connectivity losses between areas of suitable elevation, 3) the disproportionate effect of larger wetland vulnerabilities, and 4) the need to protect new areas to address the future movement of ecosystems. Chapter 3 evaluates the unique context of shoreline management on a barrier sandspit under sea-level rise. A linked scenario approach was used to evaluate changes on the open coast and estuarine shorelines simultaneously and consider combined effects. The results show dune loss from a third of the study area using a sea-level rise scenario of 1 m over 100 years and with continuation of current land-uses. Increased exposure to natural hazards and accompanying demand for seawalls is a likely consequence unless natural alternatives can be progressed. In contrast, an example of managed retreat following earthquake-induced subsidence of the backshore presents a new opportunity to restart saltmarsh accretion processes seaward of coastal defences with the potential to reverse decades of degradation and build sea-level rise resilience. Considering both shorelines simultaneously highlights the existence of pinch-points from opposing forces that result in small land volumes above the tidal range. Societal adaptation is delicately poised between the paradigms of resisting or accommodating nature and challenged by the long perimeter and confined nature of the sandspit feature. The remaining chapters address the potential for salinity effects caused by tidal prism changes with a focus on the conservation of īnanga (Galaxias maculatus), a culturally important fish that supports New Zealand‘s whitebait fishery. Methodologies were developed to test the hypothesis that RSL changes would drive a shift in the distribution of spawning sites with implications for their management. Chapter 4 describes a new practical methodology for quantifying the total productivity and spatiotemporal variability of spawning sites at catchment scale. Chapter 5 describes the novel use of artificial habitats as a detection tools to help overcome field survey limitations in degraded environments where egg mortality can be high. The results showed that RSL changes resulted in major shifts in spawning locations and these were associated with new patterns of vulnerability due to the continuation of pre-disturbance land-uses. Unexpected findings includes an improved understanding of the spatial relationship between salinity and spawning habitat, and identification of an invasive plant species as important spawning habitat, both with practical management implications. To conclude, the design of legal protection mechanisms was evaluated in relation to the observed habitat shifts and with a focus on two new planning initiatives that identified relatively large protected areas (PAs) in the lower river corridors. Although the larger PAs were better able to accommodate the observed habitat shifts inefficiencies were also apparent due to spatial disparities between PA boundaries and the values requiring protection. To reduce unnecessary trade-offs with other land-uses, PAs of sufficient size to cover the observable spatiotemporal variability and coupled with adaptive capacity to address future change may offer a high effectiveness from a network of smaller PAs. The latter may be informed by both monitoring and modelling of future shifts and these are expected to include upstream habitat migration driven by the identified salinity relationships and eustatic sea-level rise. The thesis concludes with a summary of the knowledge gained from this research that can assist the development of a new paradigm of environmental sustainability incorporating conservation and climate change adaptation. Several promising directions for future research identified within this project are also discussed.
This report presents an overview of the soil profile characteristics at a number of strong motion station (SMS) sites in Christchurch and its surrounds. An extensive database of ground motion records has been captured by the SMS network in the Canterbury region during the Canterbury earthquake sequence. However in order to comprehensively understand the ground motions recorded at these sites and to be able to relate these motions to other locations, a detailed understanding of the shallow geotechnical profile at each SMS is required. The original NZS1170.5 (SNZ 2004) site subsoil classifications for each SMS site is based on regional geological information and well logs located at varying distances from the site. Given the variability of Christchurch soils, more detailed investigations are required in close vicinity to each SMS to better understand stratigraphy and soil properties, which are important in seismic site response. In this regard, CPT, SPT and borehole data, shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles, and horizontal to vertical spectral ratio measurements (H/V) in close vicinity to the SMS were used to develop representative soil profiles at each site. NZS1170.5 (SNZ 2004) site subsoil classifications were updated using Vs and SPT N60 criteria. Site class E boundaries were treated as a sliding scale rather than as a discrete boundary to account for locations with similar site effects potential, an approach which was shown to result in a better delineation between the site classes. SPT N60 values often indicate a stiffer site class than the Vs data for softer soil sites, highlighting the disparity between the two site investigation techniques. Both SPT N60 and Vs based site classes did not always agree with the original site classifications. This emphasises the importance of having detailed site‐specific information at SMS locations in order to properly classify them. Furthermore, additional studies are required to harmonize site classification based on SPT N60 and Vs. Liquefaction triggering assessments were carried out for the Darfield and Christchurch earthquakes, and compared against observed liquefaction surface manifestations and ground motions characteristics at each SMS. In general, the characteristics of the recorded ground motions at each site correlate well with the triggering analyses. However, at sites that likely liquefied at depth (as indicated by triggering analyses and/or inferred from the characteristics of the recorded surface acceleration time series), the presence of a non‐liquefiable crust layer at many of the SMS locations prevented the manifestation of any surface effects.
Supplemental energy dissipation devices are increasingly used to protect structures, limit loads transferred to structural elements and absorbing significant response energy without sacrificial structural damage. Lead extrusion dampers are supplemental energy dissipation devices, where recent development of smaller volumetric size with high force capacities, called high force to volume (HF2V) devices, has seen deployment in a large series of scaled and full-scaled experiments, as well as in three new structures in Christchurch, NZ and San Francisco, USA. HF2V devices have previously been designed using limited precision models, so there is variation in force prediction capability. Further, while the overall resistive force is predicted, the knowledge of the relative contributions of the different internal reaction mechanisms to these overall resistive forces is lacking, limiting insight and predictive accuracy in device design. There is thus a major need for detailed design models to better understand force generation, and to aid precision device design. These outcomes would speed the overall design and implementation process for uptake and use, reducing the need for iterative experimental testing. Design parameters from 17 experimental HF2V device tests are used to create finite element models using ABAQUS. The analysis is run using ABAQUS Explicit, in multiple step times of 1 second with automatic increments, to balance higher accuracy and computational time. The output is obtained from the time- history output of the contact pressure forces including the normal and friction forces on the lead along the shaft. These values are used to calculate the resistive force on the shaft as it moves through the lead, and thus the device force. Results of these highly nonlinear, high strain analyses are compared to experimental device force results. Model errors compared to experimental results for all 17 devices ranged from 0% to 20% with a mean absolute error of 6.4%, indicating most errors were small. In particular, the standard error in manufacturing is SE = ±14%. In this case, 15 of 17 devices (88%) are within ±1SE (±14%) and 2 of 17 devices (12%) are within ±2SE (±28). These results show low errors and a distribution of errors compared to experimental results that are within experimental device construction variability. The overall modelling methodology is objective and repeatable, and thus generalizable. The exact same modelling approach is applied to all devices with only the device geometry changing. The results validate the overall approach with relatively low error, providing a general modelling methodology for accurate design of HF2V devices.
This report summarizes the development of a region-wide surficial soil shear wave velocity (Vs ) model based on the unique combination of a large high-spatial-density database of cone penetration test (CPT) logs in the greater Christchurch urban area (> 15, 000 logs as of 1 February 2014) and the Christchurch-specific empirical correlation between soil Vs and CPT data developed by McGann et al. [1, 2]. This model has applications for site characterization efforts via maps of time-averaged Vs over specific depths (e.g. Vs30, Vs10), and for numerical modeling efforts via the identification of typical Vs profiles for different regions and soil behaviour types within Christchurch. In addition, the Vs model can be used to constrain the near-surface velocities for the 3D seismic velocity model of the Canterbury basin [3] currently being developed for the purpose of broadband ground motion simulation. The general development of these region-wide near-surface Vs models includes the following general phases, with each discussed in separate chapters of this report. • An evaluation of the available CPT dataset for suitability, and the definition of other datasets and assumptions necessary to characterize the surficial sediments of the region to 30 m depth. • The development of time-averaged shear wave velocity (Vsz) surfaces for the Christchurch area from the adopted CPT dataset (and supplementary data/assumptions) using spatial interpolation. The Vsz surfaces are used to explore the characteristics of the near-surface soils in the regions and are shown to correspond well with known features of the local geology, the historical ecosystems of the area, and observations made following the 2010- 2011 Canterbury earthquakes. • A detailed analysis of the Vs profiles in eight subregions of Christchurch is performed to assess the variablity in the soil profiles for regions with similar Vsz values and to assess Vsz as a predictive metric for local site response. It is shown that the distrubution of soil shear wave velocity in the Christchurch regions is highly variable both spatially (horizontally) and with depth (vertically) due to the varied geological histories for different parts of the area, and the highly stratified nature of the nearsurface deposits. This variability is not considered to be greatly significant in terms of current simplified site classification systems; based on computed Vs30 values, all considered regions can be categorized as NEHRP sites class D (180 < Vs < 360 m/s) or E (Vs < 180 m/s), however, detailed analysis of the shear wave velocity profiles in different subregions of Christchurch show that the expected surficial site response can vary quite a bit across the region despite the relative similarity in Vs30
Documenting earthquake-induced ground deformation is significant to assess the characteristics of past and contemporary earthquakes and provide insight into seismic hazard. This study uses airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and conducts multi-disciplinary field techniques to document the surface rupture morphology and evaluate the paleoseismicity and seismic hazard parameters of the Hurunui segment of the Hope Fault in the northern South Island of New Zealand. It also documents and evaluates seismically induced features and ground motion characteristics of the 2010 Darfield and 2011 Christchurch earthquakes in the Port Hills, south of Christchurch. These two studies are linked in that they investigate the near-field coseismic features of large (Mw ~7.1) earthquakes in New Zealand and produce data for evaluating seismic hazards of future earthquakes. In the northern South Island of New Zealand, the Australian-Pacific plate boundary is characterised by strike-slip deformation across the Marlborough Fault System (MFS). The ENE-striking Hope Fault (length: ~230 km) is the youngest and southernmost fault in the MFS, and the second fastest slipping fault in New Zealand. The Hope Fault is a major source of seismic hazard in New Zealand and has ruptured (in-part) historically in the Mw 7.1 1888 Amuri earthquake. In the west, the Hurunui segment of the Hope Fault is covered by beech forest. Hence, its seismic hazard parameters and paleoearthquake chronology were poorly constrained and it was unknown whether the 1888 earthquake ruptured this segment or not and if so, to what extent. Utilising LiDAR and field data, a 29 km-long section of the Hurunui segment of the Hope Fault is mapped. LiDAR-mapping clearly reveals the principal slip zone (PSZ) of the fault and a suite of previously unrecognised structures that form the fault deformation zone (FDZ). FDZ width measurements from 415 locations reveal a spatially-variable, active FDZ up to ~500 m wide with an average width of 200 m. Kinematic analysis of the fault structures shows that the Hurunui segment strikes between 070° and 075° and is optimally oriented for dextral strike-slip within the regional stress field. This implies that the wide FDZ observed is unlikely to result from large-scale fault mis-orientation with respect to regional stresses. The analysis of FDZ width indicates that it increases with increased hanging wall topography and increased topographic relief suggesting that along-strike topographic perturbations to fault geometry and stress states increase fault zone complexity and width. FDZ width also increases where the tips of adjacent PSZ strands locally vary in strike, and where the thickness of alluvial deposits overlying bedrock increases. LiDAR- and photogrammetrically-derived topographic mapping indicates that the boundary between the Hurunui and Hope River segments is characterised by a ~850-m-wide right stepover and a 9º-14° fault bend. Paleoseismic trenching at Hope Shelter site reveals that 6 earthquakes occurred at A.D. 1888, 1740-1840, 1479-1623, 819-1092, 439-551, and 373- 419. These rupture events have a mean recurrence interval of ~298 ± 88 yr and inter-event times ranging from 98 to 595 yrs. The variation in the inter-event times is explained by (1) coalescing rupture overlap from the adjacent Hope River segment on to the Hurunui segment at the study site, (2) temporal clustering of large earthquakes on the Hurunui segment, and/or (3) ‘missing’ rupture events. It appears that the first two options are more plausible to explain the earthquake chronologies and rupture behaviour on the Hurunui segment, given the detailed nature of the geologic and chronologic investigations. This study provides first evidence for coseismic multi-segment ruptures on the Hope Fault by identifying a rupture length of 44-70 km for the 1888 earthquake, which was not confined to the Hope River segment (primary source for the 1888 earthquake). LiDAR data is also used to identify and measure dextral displacements and scarp heights from the PSZ and structures within the FDZ along the Hurunui segment. Reconstruction of large dextrally-offset geomorphic features shows that the vertical component of slip accounts for only ~1% of the horizontal displacements and confirms that the fault is predominantly strike-slip. A strong correlation exists between the dextral displacements and elevations of geomorphic features suggesting the possibility of age correlation between the geomorphic features. A mean single event displacement (SED) of 3.6 ± 0.7 m is determined from interpretation of sets of dextral displacements of ≤ 25 m. Using the available surface age data and the cumulative dextral displacements from Matagouri Flat, McKenzie Fan, Macs Knob and Hope River sites, and the mean SED, a mean slip rate of 12.2 ± 2.4 mm/yr, and a mean recurrence interval of ~320 ± 120 yr, and a potential earthquake magnitude of Mw 7.2 are determined for the Hurunui segment. This study suggests that the fault slip rate has been constant over the last ~15000 yr. Strong ground motions from the 2010 Darfield (Canterbury) earthquake displaced boulders and caused ground damage on some ridge crests in the Port Hills. However, the 2011 Christchurch earthquake neither displaced boulders nor caused ground damage at the same ridge crests. Documentation of locations (~400 m a.s.l.), lateral displacements (8-970 cm), displacement direction (250° ± 20°) of displaced boulders, in addition to their hosting socket geometries (< 1 cm to 50 cm depth), the orientation of the ridges (000°-015°) indicate that boulders have been displaced in the direction of instrumentally recorded transient peak ground horizontal displacements nearby and that the seismic waves have been amplified at the study sites. The co-existence of displaced and non-displaced boulders at proximal sites suggests small-scale ground motion variability and/or varying boulder-ground dynamic interactions relating to shallow phenomena such as variability in soil depth, bedrock fracture density and/or microtopography on the bedrock-soil interface. Shorter shaking duration of the 2011 Christchurch event, differing frequency contents and different source characteristics were all factors that may have contributed to generating circumstances less favourable to boulder displacement in this earthquake. Investigating seismically induced features, fault behaviour, site effects on the rupture behaviour, and site response to the seismic waves provides insights into fault rupture hazards.
The Canterbury earthquake sequence (2010-2011) was the most devastating catastrophe in New Zealand‘s modern history. Fortunately, in 2011 New Zealand had a high insurance penetration ratio, with more than 95% of residences being insured for these earthquakes. This dissertation sheds light on the functions of disaster insurance schemes and their role in economic recovery post-earthquakes. The first chapter describes the demand and supply for earthquake insurance and provides insights about different public-private partnership earthquake insurance schemes around the world. In the second chapter, we concentrate on three public earthquake insurance schemes in California, Japan, and New Zealand. The chapter examines what would have been the outcome had the system of insurance in Christchurch been different in the aftermath of the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES). We focus on the California Earthquake Authority insurance program, and the Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance scheme. Overall, the aggregate cost of the earthquake to the New Zealand public insurer (the Earthquake Commission) was USD 6.2 billion. If a similar-sized disaster event had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received only around USD 1.6 billion and USD 0.7 billion from the Japanese and Californian schemes, respectively. We further describe the spatial and distributive aspects of these scenarios and discuss some of the policy questions that emerge from this comparison. The third chapter measures the longer-term effect of the CES on the local economy, using night-time light intensity measured from space, and focus on the role of insurance payments for damaged residential property during the local recovery process. Uniquely for this event, more than 95% of residential housing units were covered by insurance and almost all incurred some damage. However, insurance payments were staggered over 5 years, enabling us to identify their local impact. We find that night-time luminosity can capture the process of recovery; and that insurance payments contributed significantly to the process of local economic recovery after the earthquake. Yet, delayed payments were less affective in assisting recovery and cash settlement of claims were more effective than insurance-managed repairs. After the Christchurch earthquakes, the government declared about 8000 houses as Red Zoned, prohibiting further developments in these properties, and offering the owners to buy them out. The government provided two options for owners: the first was full payment for both land and dwelling at the 2007 property evaluation, the second was payment for land, and the rest to be paid by the owner‘s insurance. Most people chose the second option. Using data from LINZ combined with data from Stats NZ, the fourth chapter empirically investigates what led people to choose this second option, and how peer effect influenced the homeowners‘ choices. Due to climate change, public disclosure of coastal hazard information through maps and property reports have been used more frequently by local government. This is expected to raise awareness about disaster risks in local community and help potential property owners to make informed locational decision. However, media outlets and business sector argue that public hazard disclosure will cause a negative effect on property value. Despite this opposition, some district councils in New Zealand have attempted to implement improved disclosure. Kapiti Coast district in the Wellington region serves as a case study for this research. In the fifth chapter, we utilize the residential property sale data and coastal hazard maps from the local district council. This study employs a difference-in-difference hedonic property price approach to examine the effect of hazard disclosure on coastal property values. We also apply spatial hedonic regression methods, controlling for coastal amenities, as our robustness check. Our findings suggest that hazard designation has a statistically and economically insignificant impact on property values. Overall, the risk perception about coastal hazards should be more emphasized in communities.
The Leader Fault was one of at least 17 faults that ruptured the ground surface across the northeastern South Island of New Zealand during the Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake. The southern ~6 km of the Leader Fault, here referred to as the South Leader Fault (SLF), ruptured the North Canterbury (tectonic) Domain and is the primary focus of this study. The main objective of the thesis is to understand the key factors that contributed to the geometry and kinematics of the 2016 SLF rupture and its intersection with The Humps Fault (HF). This thesis employs a combination of techniques to achieve the primary objective, including detailed mapping of the bedrock geology, geomorphology and 2016 rupture, measurement of 2016 ground surface displacements, kinematic analysis of slip vectors from the earthquake, and logging of a single natural exposure across a 2016 rupture that was treated as a paleoseismic trench. The resulting datasets were collected in the field, from terrestrial LiDAR and InSAR imagery, and from historical (pre-earthquake) aerial photographs for a ~11 km2 study area. Surface ruptures in the study area are a miniature version of the entire rupture from the earthquake; they are geometrically and kinematically complex, with many individual and discontinuous segments of varying orientations and slip senses which are distributed across a zone up to ~3.5 km wide. Despite this variability, three main groups of ruptures have been identified. These are: 1) NE-SW striking, shallow to moderate dipping (25-45°W) faults that are approximately parallel to Cenozoic bedding with mainly reverse dip-slip and, and for the purposes of this thesis, are considered to be part of the SLF. 2) N-S striking, steeply dipping (~85°E) oblique sinistral faults that are up to the west and part of the SLF. 3) E-NE striking, moderate to steeply dipping (45-68°N) dextral reverse faults which are part of the HF. Bedding-parallel faults are interpreted to be flexural slip structures formed during folding of the near-surface Cenozoic strata, while the steeply dipping SLF ruptured a pre-existing bedrock fault which has little topographic expression. Groups 1 and 2 faults were both locally used for gravitational failure during the earthquake. Despite this non-tectonic fault movement, the slip vectors for faults that ruptured during the earthquake are broadly consistent with NCD tectonics and the regional ~100-120° trend of the principal horizontal stress/strain axes. Previous earthquake activity on the SLF is required by its displacement of Cenozoic formations but Late Quaternary slip on the fault prior to 2016 is neither supported by pre-existing fault scarps nor by changes in topography across the fault. By contrast, at least two earthquakes (including 2016) appear to have ruptured the HF from the mid Holocene, consistent with recurrence intervals of no more than ~7 kyr, and with preliminary observations from trenches on the fault farther to the west. The disparity in paleoearthquake records of the two faults suggests that they typically do not rupture together, thus it is concluded that the HF-SLF rupture pattern observed in the Kaikōura Earthquake rarely occurs in a single earthquake.
The Avon and Heathcote Rivers, located in the city of Christchurch, New Zealand, are lowland spring-fed rivers linked with the Christchurch Groundwater System. At present, the flow paths and recharge sources to the Christchurch Groundwater System are not fully understood. Study of both the Avon and Heathcote Rivers can provide greater insight into this system. In addition, during the period 2010-2012, Christchurch has experienced large amounts of seismic activity, including a devastating Mw 6.2 aftershock on February 22nd, 2011, which caused widespread damage and loss of life. Associated with these earthquakes was the release of large amounts of water through liquefaction and temporary springs throughout the city. This provided a unique opportunity to study groundwater surface water interactions following a large scale seismic event. Presented herein is the first major geochemical study on the Avon and Heathcote Rivers and the hydrological impact of the February 22, 2011 Christchurch Earthquake. The Avon, Heathcote, and Waimakariri Rivers were sampled in quarterly periods starting in July 2011 and analyzed for stable Isotopes δ¹⁸O, δD, and δ¹³C and major anion composition. In addition, post -earthquake samples were collected over the days immediately following the February 22, 2011 earthquake and analyzed for stable isotopes δ¹⁸O and δD and major anion composition. A variety of analytical methods were used identify the source of the waters in the Avon-Heathcote System and evaluate the effectiveness of stable isotopes as geochemical tracers in the Christchurch Groundwater System. The results of this thesis found that the waters from the Avon and Heathcote Rivers are geochemically the same, originating from groundwater, and exhibit a strong tidal influence within 5km of the Avon-Heathcote Estuary. The surface waters released following the February 22nd, 2011 earthquake were indistinguishable from quarterly samples taken from the Avon and Heathcote Rivers when comparing stable isotopic composition. The anion data suggests the waters released following the February 22nd, 2011 Christchurch Earthquake were sourced primarily from shallow groundwater, and also suggests a presence of urban sewage at some sites. Attempts to estimate recharge sources for the Avon-Heathcote Rivers using published models for the Christchurch Groundwater System yielded results that were not consistent between models. In evaluating the use of geochemical constituents as tracers in the Christchurch Groundwater System, no one isotope could provide a clear resolution, but when used in conjunction, δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C, and DIC, seem to be the most effective tracers. Sample sizes for δ¹³C were too small for a robust evaluation. Variability on the Waimakariri River appears to be greater than previously estimated, which could have significant impacts on geochemical models for the Christchurch Groundwater System. This research demonstrates the value of using multiple geochemical constituents to enrich our understanding of the groundwater surfaces-water interactions and the Christchurch Groundwater System as a whole.
Land cover change information in urban areas supports decision makers in dealing with public policy planning and resource management. Remote sensing has been demonstrated as an efficient and accurate way to monitor land cover change over large extents. The Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) caused massive damage in Christchurch, New Zealand and resulted in significant land cover change over a short time period. This study combined two types of remote sensing data, aerial imagery (RGB) and LiDAR, as the basis for quantifying land cover change in Christchurch between 2011 – 2015, a period corresponding to the five years immediately following the 22 February 2011 earthquake, which was part of the CES. An object based image analysis (OBIA) approach was adopted to classify the aerial imagery and LiDAR data into seven land cover types (bare land, building, grass, shadow, tree and water). The OBIA approach consisted of two steps, image segmentation and object classification. For the first step, this study used multi-level segmentation to better segment objects. For the second step, the random forest (RF) classifier was used to assign a land cover type to each object defined by the segmentation. Overall classification accuracies for 2011 and 2015 were 94.0% and 94.32%, respectively. Based on the classification result, land cover changes between 2011 and 2015 were then analysed. Significant increases were found in road and tree cover, while the land cover types that decreased were bare land, grass, roof, water. To better understand the reasons for those changes, land cover transitions were calculated. Canopy growth, seasonal differences and forest plantation establishment were the main reasons for tree cover increase. Redevelopment after the earthquake was the main reason for road area growth. By comparing the spatial distribution of these transitions, this study also identified Halswell and Wigram as the fastest developing suburbs in Christchurch. These results provided quantitative information for the effects of CES, with respect to land cover change. They allow for a better understanding for the current land cover status of Christchurch. Among those land cover changes, the significant increase in tree cover aroused particularly interest as urban forests benefit citizens via ecosystem services, including health, social, economic, and environmental benefits. Therefore, this study firstly calculated the percentages of tree cover in Christchurch’s fifteen wards in order to provide a general idea of tree cover change in the city extent. Following this, an automatic individual tree detection and crown delineation (ITCD) was undertaken to determine the feasibility of automated tree counting. The accuracies of the proposed approach ranged between 56.47% and 92.11% in thirty different sample plots, with an overall accuracy of 75.60%. Such varied accuracies were later found to be caused by the fixed tree detection window size and misclassifications from the land cover classification that affected the boundary of the CHM. Due to the large variability in accuracy, tree counting was not undertaken city-wide for both time periods. However, directions for further study for ITCD in Christchurch could be exploring ITCD approaches with variable window size or optimizing the classification approach to focus more on producing highly accurate CHMs.
Spatial variations in river facies exerted a strong influence on the distribution of liquefaction features observed in Christchurch during the 2010-11 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES). Liquefaction and liquefaction-induced ground deformation was primarily concentrated near modern waterways and areas underlain by Holocene fluvial deposits with shallow water tables (< 1 to 2 m). In southern Christchurch, spatial variations of liquefaction and subsidence were documented in the suburbs within inner meander loops of the Heathcote River. Newly acquired geospatial data, geotechnical reports and eye-witness discussions are compiled to provide a detailed account of the surficial effects of CES liquefaction and ground deformation adjacent to the Heathcote River. LiDAR data and aerial photography are used to produce a new series of original figures which reveal the locations of recurrent liquefaction and subsidence. To investigate why variable liquefaction patterns occurred, the distribution of surface ejecta and associated ground damage is compared with near-surface sedimentologic, topographic, and geomorphic variability to seek relationships between the near-surface properties and observed ground damages. The most severe liquefaction was concentrated within a topographic low in the suburb of St Martins, an inner meander loop of the Heathcote River, with liquefaction only minor or absent in the surrounding areas. Subsurface investigations at two sites in St Martins enable documentation of fluvial stratigraphy, the expressions of liquefaction, and identification of pre-CES liquefaction features. Excavation to water table depths (~1.5 m below the surface) across sand boils reveals multiple generations of CES liquefaction dikes and sills that cross-cut Holocene fluvial and anthropogenic stratigraphy. Based on in situ geotechnical tests (CPT) indicating sediment with a factor of safety < 1, the majority of surface ejecta was sourced from well-sorted fine to medium sand at < 5 m depth, with the most damaging liquefaction corresponding with the location of a low-lying sandy paleochannel, a remnant river channel from the Holocene migration of the meander in St Martins. In the adjacent suburb of Beckenham, where migration of the Heathcote River has been laterally confined by topography associated with the volcanic lithologies of Banks Peninsula, severe liquefaction was absent with only minor sand boils occurring closest to the modern river channel. Auger sampling across the suburb revealed thick (>1 m) clay-rich overbank and back swamp sediments that produced a stratigraphy which likely confined the units susceptible to liquefaction and prevented widespread ejection of liquefied material. This analysis suggests river migration promotes the formation and preservation of fluvial deposits prone to liquefaction. Trenching revealed the strongest CES earthquakes with large vertical accelerations favoured sill formation and severe subsidence at highly susceptible locations corresponding with an abandoned channel. Less vulnerable sites containing deeper and thinner sand bodies only liquefied in the strongest and most proximal earthquakes forming minor localised liquefaction features. Liquefaction was less prominent and severe subsidence was absent where lateral confinement of a Heathcote meander has promoted the formation of fluvial stratum resistant to liquefaction. Correlating CES liquefaction with geomorphic interpretations of Christchurch’s Heathcote River highlights methods in which the performance of liquefaction susceptibility models can be improved. These include developing a reliable proxy for estimating soil conditions in meandering fluvial systems by interpreting the geology and geomorphology, derived from LiDAR data and modern river morphology, to improve the methods of accounting for the susceptibility of an area. Combining geomorphic interpretations with geotechnical data can be applied elsewhere to identify regional liquefaction susceptibilities, improve existing liquefaction susceptibility datasets, and predict future earthquake damage.
