We examined the stratigraphy of alluvial fans formed at the steep range front of the Southern Alps at Te Taho, on the north bank of the Whataroa River in central West Coast, South Island, New Zealand. The range front coincides with the Alpine Fault, an Australian-Pacific plate boundary fault, which produces regular earthquakes. Our study of range front fans revealed aggradation at 100- to 300-year intervals. Radiocarbon ages and soil residence times (SRTs) estimated by a quantitative profile development index allowed us to elucidate the characteristics of four episodes of aggradation since 1000 CE. We postulate a repeating mode of fan behaviour (fan response cycle [FRC]) linked to earthquake cycles via earthquake-triggered landslides. FRCs are characterised by short response time (aggradation followed by incision) and a long phase when channels are entrenched and fan surfaces are stable (persistence time). Currently, the Te Taho and Whataroa River fans are in the latter phase. The four episodes of fan building we determined from an OxCal sequence model correlate to Alpine Fault earthquakes (or other subsidiary events) and support prior landscape evolution studies indicating ≥M7.5 earthquakes as the main driver of episodic sedimentation. Our findings are consistent with other historic non-earthquake events on the West Coast but indicate faster responses than other earthquake sites in New Zealand and elsewhere where rainfall and stream gradients (the basis for stream power) are lower. Judging from the thickness of fan deposits and the short response times, we conclude that pastoral farming (current land-use) on the fans and probably across much of the Whataroa River fan would be impossible for several decades after a major earthquake. The sustainability of regional tourism and agriculture is at risk, more so because of the vulnerability of the single through road in the region (State Highway 6).
This paper begins with a discussion of the history of negligent manslaughter in New Zealand and its development from the standard of ordinary negligence to the current test of a “major departure” from the expected standard of care, as set out under s 150A of the Crimes Act 1961. The paper then examines failings in s 150A’s current application, arguing that the “major departure” test has created injustices due to its strictly objective nature. Two examples of this are discussed in-depth, Bawa-Garba v R (UK) where a doctor was convicted of grossly negligent manslaughter for the death of her patient; and the decision not to prosecute the negligent engineers of the CTV building which collapsed in the Christchurch earthquake of 2011. The paper discusses three potential resolutions moving forward. It concludes that a more subjective interpretation of the wording of s 150A, which takes account of circumstances excusing or condemning a defendant’s conduct, would prevent future injustices and be a reasonably open interpretation on the wording of s 150A.
Recent seismic events, such as the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes and the 2016 Kaikōura earthquakes, have shed light on issues with the seismic performance of glazing systems. This is attributed to the limited amount of research and consideration of glazing systems in design and assessments. Previous research and evidence from post-earthquake reconnaissance have shown that glazing systems pose a hazard due to falling glass. As such, it is vital to ensure that glazing systems are designed with the necessary levels of seismic performance. Furthermore, the post-earthquake repair of glass facades can be costly and time-consuming. Some previous research has been conducted to highlight the seismic performance and fragility of glazing systems. However, most prior research only focussed on life-safety issues of glazing systems and rarely on the serviceability of glazing systems. The serviceability of glazing systems, such as water-tightness, is a vital aspect of glazing systems as a low serviceability capacity will increase the likelihood of further damage which will increase economic losses. This is the aim of this research, to provide insight towards the seismic performance of glazing systems considering both the serviceability and ultimate limit state by generating insight into the behaviour of glazing systems and developing tools for the consideration of glazing systems in design and assessment. This will allow a value proposition for seismic detailing of glazing to be evaluated. In order to provide insight into the behaviour of glazing systems and a means for evaluating their seismic performance, this research firstly develops an applicable experimental testing procedure that allows for serviceability limit state tests on glazing units. This experimental testing procedure is used to obtain data on the vulnerability of general New Zealand glazing systems’ performance, specifically unitised glazing systems that are commonly used as commercial shopfront glazing system types. These glazing systems typically realised using aluminium framing with gaskets connecting the frame to the glass. After the experimental testing, numerical analyses calibrated to the experimental testing results are conducted to enable robust analyses of glazing systems’ fragility. Finally, a value proposition for glazing systems with seismic detailing is made by comparing the performance of glazing systems with seismic detailing and conventional glazing systems. This comparison is done using the PEER-PBEE method and the economic implications of each glazing system is shown. Suggestions for designers and stakeholders aimed at reducing costs related to the seismic performance of glazing systems is also shown. Using the novel experimental method developed in this research, three different full-scale glazing systems were tested. A total of 10 unitised glazing specimens were tested; three with standard detailing, three with seismic detailing and four that were structurally glazed. These tests evaluated three damage states (DS): loss of water-tightness (DS1), gasket damage (DS2), and glass or framing failure (DS3). The experimental method that was adopted is considered to be more desirable than the optional procedures set out in New Zealand glazing standards. The method does not require high-speed testing equipment and is easy to replicate by the industry. The test results show that water-tightness was lost at low drift levels, with the first leakage occurring at just 0.15% drift for one specimen, while a standard glazing system had a median drift capacity of 0.35%. In contrast, seismic glazing systems detailed to better accommodate in-plane movements, demonstrated a significantly higher median drift capacity of 1.88%. The numerical approach proposed in this research has shown that it is possible to numerically model the glazing-gasket interaction to conservatively predict the water-leakage drift (damage state 1). The modelling approach still needs further development if it were to be used for damage states DS2 and DS3. The last part of the research considered the value proposition for seismic glazing systems. This was achieved by applying the FEMA P-58 performance assessment framework to a number of case study buldings that are typical of New Zealand design. The results suggest that it may not be economically worthwhile to use well-detailed seismic glazing systems despite the considerably larger drift capacity they possess relative to standard systems. However, as the cost of seismic glazing systems reduces, and more information on repair costs for different damage states is obtained, the value proposition may change.
The standard way in which disaster damages are measured involves examining separately the number of fatalities, of injuries, of people otherwise affected, and the financial damage that natural disasters cause. Here, we implement a novel way to aggregate these separate measures of disaster impact and apply it to two recent catastrophic events: the Christchurch (New Zealand) earthquakes and the Greater Bangkok (Thailand) floods of 2011. This new measure, which is similar to the World Health Organization’s calculation of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost from the burden of diseases and injuries, is described in detail in Noy (2014). It allows us to conclude that New Zealand lost 180 thousand lifeyears as a result of the 2011 events, and Thailand lost 2,644 thousand years. In per capita terms, the loss is similar, with both countries losing about 15 days per person due to the 2011 catastrophic events in these two countries. We also compare these events to other potentially similar events.
We examine the role of business interruption insurance in business recovery following the Christchurch earthquake in 2011 in the short- and medium-term. In the short-term analysis, we ask whether insurance increases the likelihood of business survival in the aftermath of a disaster. We find only weak evidence that those firms that had incurred damage, but were covered by business interruption insurance, had higher likelihood of survival post-quake compared with those firms that did not have insurance. This absence of evidence may reflect the high degree of uncertainty in the months following the 2011 earthquake and the multiplicity of severe aftershocks. For the medium-term, our results show a more explicit role for insurance in the aftermath of a disaster. Firms with business interruption insurance have a higher probability of increasing productivity and improved performance following a catastrophe. Furthermore, our results show that those organisations that receive prompt and full payments of their claims have a better recovery, in terms of profitability and a subjective ‘”better off” measure’ than those that had protracted or inadequate claim payments (less than 80% of the claim paid within 2.5 years). Interestingly, the latter group does worse than those organisations that had damage but no insurance coverage. This analysis strongly indicates the importance not only of good insurance coverage, but of an insurance system that also delivers prompt claim payments. As a first paper attempting to empirically identify a causal effect of insurance on business recovery, we also emphasize some caveats to our analysis.
Earthquakes are insured only with public sector involvement in high-income countries where the risk of earthquakes is perceived to be high. The proto-typical examples of this public sector involvement are the public earthquake insurance schemes in California, Japan, and New Zealand (NZ). Each of these insurance programs is structured differently, and the purpose of this paper is to examine these differences using a concrete case-study, the sequence of earthquakes that occurred in the Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2011. This event turned out to have been the most heavily insured earthquake event in history. We examine what would have been the outcome of the earthquakes had the system of insurance in NZ been different. In particular, we focus on the public earthquake insurance programs in California (the California Earthquake Authority - CEA), and in Japan (Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance - JER). Overall, the aggregate cost to the public insurer in NZ was $NZ 11.1 billion in its response to the earthquakes. If a similar-sized disaster event had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received $NZ 2.5 billion and $NZ 1.4 billion from the JER and CEA, respectively. We further describe the spatial and distributive patterns of these different scenarios.
We measure the longer-term effect of a major earthquake on the local economy, using night-time light intensity measured from space, and investigate whether insurance claim payments for damaged residential property affected the local recovery process. We focus on the destructive Christchurch earthquake of 2011 as our case study. In this event more than 95% of residential housing units were covered by insurance, but insurance payments were staggered over 5 years, enabling us to identify their local impact. We find that night-time luminosity can capture the process of recovery and describe the recovery’s determinants. We also find that insurance payments contributed significantly to the process of economic recovery after the earthquake, but delayed payments were less affective and cash settlement of claims were more affective in contributing to local recovery than insurance-managed rebuilding.
We estimate the causal effects of a large unanticipated natural disaster on high schoolers’ university enrolment decisions and subsequent medium-term labour market outcomes. Using national administrative data after a destructive earthquake in New Zealand, we estimate that the disaster raises tertiary education enrolment of recent high school graduates by 6.1 percentage points. The effects are most pronounced for males, students who are academically weak relative to their peers, and students from schools directly damaged by the disaster. As relatively low ability males are overrepresented in sectors of the labour market helped by the earthquake, greater demand for university may stem from permanent changes in deeper behavioural parameters such as risk aversion or time preference, rather than as a coping response to poor economic opportunities.
