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Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Museums around the world are often affected by major catastrophes, and yet planning for these disasters is an often neglected aspect of museum practice. New Zealand is not immune from these events, as can be seen in the recent series of serious earthquakes in Christchurch in 2010 and 2011. This dissertation considers how prepared the New Zealand museum sector is to handle unexpected events that negatively affect its buildings, staff, operations and treasured collections. The central research question was: What is the overall state of emergency planning in the New Zealand museum sector? There was a significant gap in the literature, especially in the local context, as there has been only one other comparable study conducted in Britain, and nothing locally. This dissertation makes a valuable contribution to the field of museum studies by drawing on theory from relevant areas such as crises management literature and by conducting original empirical research on a topic which has received little attention hitherto. The research employed a number of methods, including a review of background secondary sources, a survey and interviews. After contextualising the study with a number of local examples, Ian online survey was then developed an which enabled precise understanding of the nature of current museum practices and policies around emergency planning. Following this I conducted several interviews with museum professionals from a variety of institutional backgrounds which explored their thoughts and feelings behind the existing practices within the industry. The findings of the research were significant and somewhat alarming: almost 40% of the museum and galleries in New Zealand do not have any emergency plan at all, and only 11% have what they considered ‘complete’ plans. The research revealed a clear picture of the current width and depth of planning, as well as practices around updating the plans and training related to them. Within the industry there is awareness that planning for emergencies is important, but museum staff typically lack the knowledge and guidance needed to conduct effective emergency planning. As a result of the analysis, several practical suggestions are presented aimed at improving emergency planning practices in New Zealand museums. However this study has implications for museum studies and for current museum practice everywhere, as many of the recommendations for resolving the current obstacles and problems are applicable anywhere in the world, suggesting that New Zealand museums could become leaders in this important area.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

This dissertation explores the advocacy for the Christchurch Town Hall that occurred in 2012-2015 after the Canterbury Earthquakes. It frames this advocacy as an instance of collective-action community participation in a heritage decision, and explores the types of heritage values it expressed, particularly social values. The analysis contextualises the advocacy in post-quake Christchurch, and considers its relationship with other developments in local politics, heritage advocacy, and urban activism. In doing so, this dissertation considers how collective action operates as a form of public participation, and the practical implications for understanding and recognising social value.  This research draws on studies of practices that underpin social value recognition in formal heritage management. Social value is held by communities outside institutions. Engaging with communities enables institutions to explore the values of specific places, and to realise the potential of activating local connections with heritage places. Such projects can be seen as participatory practices. However, these processes require skills and resources, and may not be appropriate for all places, communities and institutions. However, literature has understudied collective action as a form of community participation in heritage management. All participation processes have nuances of communities, processes, and context, and this dissertation analyses these in one case. The research specifically asked what heritage values (especially social values) were expressed through collective action, what the relationship was with the participation processes, communities, and wider situation that produced them, and the impact on institutional rhetoric and decisions. The research analysed values expressed in representations made to council in support of the Town Hall. It also used documentary sources and interviews with key informants to analyse the advocacy and decision-making processes and their relationships with the wider context and other grassroots activities. The analysis concluded that the values expressed intertwined social and professional values. They were related to the communities and circumstance that produced them, as an advocacy campaign for a civic heritage building from a Western architectural tradition. The advocacy value arguments were one of several factors that impacted the decision. They have had a lasting impact on rhetoric around the Town Hall, as was a heritage-making practice in its own right. This dissertation makes a number of contributions to the discussion of social value and community in heritage. It suggests connections between advocacy and participation perspectives in heritage. It recommends consideration of nuances of communities, context, and place meanings when using heritage advocacy campaigns as evidence of social value. It adds to the literature on heritage advocacy, and offers a focused analysis of one of many heritage debates that occurred in post-quake Christchurch. Ultimately, it encourages practice to actively integrate social and community values and to develop self-reflexive engagement and valuation processes. Despite inherent challenges, participatory processes offer opportunities to diversify understandings of value, co-produce heritage meanings with communities, and empower citizens in democratic processes around the places they live with and love.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

It is well established that urban green areas provide a wide range of social, aesthetic, environmental and economic benefits. The importance of urban green spaces has been known for decades; however the relationship between urban livability and green areas, as incorporated in overall urban green structure, has become the focus of international studies during the last 10 to 15 years. The spatial structure of green space systems has important consequences for urban form; configuring urban resources, controlling urban size, improving ecological quality of urban areas and preventing or mitigating natural disasters. However, in the field of architecture or urban design, very little work has been done to investigate the potential for built form to define and differentiate the edge to a green corridor ... This thesis therefore poses the hypothesis that architecture and urban design critically mediate between city and green corridor, through intensification and definition of the built edge, as a means of contributing to an ecological city form.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to highlight the role of not-for-profit (NFP) organisations in enhancing disaster preparedness. The authors set out to understand their perspectives and practices in regard to disaster preparedness activities to support people who live precarious lives, especially those who live as single parents who are the least prepared for disasters.Design/methodology/approachThe research draws on in-depth, semi-structured interviews with 12 staff members, either in a group setting or individually, from seven NFP organisations, who were located in Ōtautahi (Christchurch) and Kaiapoi in Aotearoa New Zealand. These participants were interviewed eight years after the 2011 Christchurch earthquake.FindingsFour key narrative tropes or elements were drawn from across the interviews and were used to structure the research results. These included: “essential” support services for people living precarious lives; assisting people to be prepared; potential to support preparedness with the right materials and relationships; resourcing to supply emergency goods.Originality/valueThis research contributes to disaster risk reduction practices by advocating for ongoing resourcing of NFP groups due to their ability to build a sense of community and trust while working with precarious communities, such as single parents.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

For some people, religion, spirituality and faith (RSF) serves an important function, helping them deal with difficult everyday life challenges. This qualitative ethnographic study examines how and in what ways a group of Cantabrians engaged with RSF in dealing with diverse forms of significant trauma – from moments of crisis through to more extended processes of recovery. The research is located within the context of post-earthquake Christchurch, and is based on fieldwork undertaken in 2012–2013. It explores the experiences of respondents representing traditional Christian and non-orthodox, non-Christian faith paths. The thesis draws on data from participant stories to emphasise the subjective experience of RSF and trauma. It argues that in times of crisis, some people draw on RSF to help them address difficult life challenges. The study demonstrates the breadth, diversity and significance of such resourcing, as well as the sometimes surprising, unanticipated forms that this engagement with RSF may take. Contrary to theories that emphasise the marginalisation of religion during times of intense distress, the thesis shows that in varying moments of crisis, people for whom RSF is important, may draw on diverse forms of RSF as a matter of priority to help them.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Following devastating earthquakes in 2010 and 2011 in Christchurch, there is an opportunity to use sustainable urban design variables to redevelop the central city in order to address climate change concerns and reduce CO₂ emissions from land transport. Literature from a variety of disciplines establishes that four sustainable urban design variables; increased density, mixed-use development, street layout and city design, and the provision of sustainable public transport, can reduce car dependency and vehicle kilometres travelled within urban populations- widely regarded as indicators of the negative environmental effects of transport.  The key question for the research is; to what extent has this opportunity been seized by NZ’s Central Government who are overseeing the central city redevelopment? In order to explore this question the redevelopment plans for the central city of Christchurch are evaluated against an adapted urban design matrix to determine whether a reduction in CO₂ emissions from land transport is likely to be achieved through their implementation. Data obtained through interviews with experts is used to further explore the extent to which sustainable urban design variables can be employed to enhance sustainability and reduce CO₂ emissions.  The analysis of this data shows that the four urban design variables will feature in the Central Government’s redevelopment plans although the extent to which they are employed and their likely success in reducing CO₂ emissions will vary. Ultimately, the opportunity to redevelop the central city of Christchurch to reduce CO₂ emissions from land transport will be undermined due to timeframe, co-ordination, and leadership barriers.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

This topic was chosen in response to the devastation caused to Cathedral Square, Christchurch, New Zealand following earthquakes in 2010 and 2011. Working amongst the demolition bought to attention questions about how to re-conceive the square within the rebuilt city. In particular, it raised questions as to how a central square could be better integrated and experienced as a contemporary addition to Christchurch city. This thesis seeks to investigate the ways in which central squares can be better integrated with the contemporary city and how New Urbanist design principles can contribute toward this union. The research principally focuses on the physical and spatial integration of the square with the contemporary city. A drawing-based analysis of select precedent case studies helped to determine early on that overall integration of the contemporary square could be attributed to several interdependent criteria. The detailed studies are supplemented further with literature-based research that narrowed the criteria to five integrative properties. These are: identity, scale and proportion, use, connectivity and natural landscape. These were synthesised, in part, from the integrative New Urbanist movement and the emerging integrative side of the more contemporary Post Urbanist movement. The literature-based research revealed that a more inclusive approach toward New Urbanist and Post Urbanist design methodologies may also produce a more integrated and contemporary square. Three design case studies, using the redesign of Cathedral Square, were undertaken to test this hypothesis. The case studies found that overall, integration was reliant on a harmonious balance between the five integrative properties, concluding that squares can be better integrated with the contemporary city. Further testing of the third concept, which embraced an allied New Urbanist / Post Urbanist approach to design, found that New Urbanism was limited in its contribution toward the integration of the square.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Earthquakes have been inferred to induce hydrological changes in aquifers on the basis of either changes to well water-levels or tidal behavior, but the relationship between these changes remains unclear. Here, changes in tidal behavior and water-levels are quantified using a hydrological network monitoring gravel aquifers in Canterbury, New Zealand, in response to nine earthquakes (of magnitudes M w 5.4 to 7.8) that occurred between 2008 and 2015. Of the 161 wells analyzed, only 35 contain water-level fluctuations associated with “Earth + Ocean” (7) or “Ocean” (28) tides. Permeability reduction manifest as changes in tidal behavior and increased water-levels in the near field of the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010–2011 support the hypothesis of shear-induced consolidation. However, tidal behavior and water-level changes rarely occurred simultaneously (~2%). Water-level changes that occurred with no change in tidal behavior reequilibrated at a new postseismic level more quickly (on timescales of ~50 min) than when a change in tidal behavior occurred (~240 min to 10 days). Water-level changes were more than likely to occur above a peak dynamic stress of ~50 kPa and were more than likely to not occur below ~10 kPa. The minimum peak dynamic stress required for a tidal behavior change to occur was ~0.2 to 100 kPa.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

When the devastating 6.3 magnitude earthquake hit Christchurch, Aotearoa New Zealand, at 12.51pm on 22nd February 2011, the psychological and physical landscape was irrevocably changed. In the days and weeks following the disaster communities were isolated due to failed infrastructure, continuing aftershocks and the extensive search and rescue effort which focussed resources on the central business district. In such moments the resilience of a community is truly tested. This research discusses the role of grassroots community groups in facilitating community resilience during the Christchurch 2010/11 earthquakes and the role of place in doing so. I argue that place specific strategies for urban resilience need to be enacted from a grassroots level while being supported by broader policies and agencies.  Using a case study of Project Lyttelton – a group aspiring towards a resilient sustainable future who were caught at the epicentre of the February earthquake – I demonstrate the role of a community group in creating resilience through self-organised place specific action during a disaster. The group provided emotional care, basic facilities and rebuilding assistance to the residents of Lyttelton, proving to be an invaluable asset. These actions are closely linked to the characteristics of social support and social learning that have been identified as important to socio-ecological resilience. In addition this research will seek to understand and explore the nuances of place and identity and its role in shaping resilience to such dis-placing events. Drawing on community narratives of the displacement of place identity, the potential for a progressive sense of place as instigated by local groups will be investigated as an avenue for adaptation by communities at risk of disaster and place destabilisation.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

This project looks at how destroyed architecture, although physically lost, fundamentally continues to exist within human memories as a non-physical entity. The site chosen is Avonside Girls’ High School in Christchurch, New Zealand, a school heavily damaged during the February 22nd earthquake in 2011. The project focuses on the Main Block, a 1930s masonry building which had always been a symbol for the school and its alumni.  The key theories relevant to this are studies on non-material architecture and memory as these subjects investigate the relationship between conceptual idea and the triggering of it. This research aims to study how to fortify a thought-based architecture against neglect, similar to the retrofitting of physical structures.  In doing so, the importance of the emotive realm of architecture and the idea behind a building (as opposed to the built component itself) is further validated, promoting more broadminded stances regarding the significance of the idea over the object. A new method for disaster recovery and addressing trauma from lost architecture is also acquired. Factors regarding advanced structural systems and programmes are not covered within the scope of this research because the project instead explores issues regarding the boundaries between the immaterial and material.  The project methodology involves communicating a narrative derived from the memories alumni and staff members have of the old school block. The approach for portraying the narrative is based on a list of strategies obtained from case studies.  The final product of the research is a new design for the high school, conveyed through a set of atmospheric drawings that cross-examines the boundaries between the physical and non-physical realms by representing the version of the school that exists solely within memories.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

As cities evolve, change and grow, the need and desire for adaptable architecture becomes evident across the nation. Architecture needs to undertake techniques that are flexible in order to adapt and align with the development of future generations in New Zealand.  The Education industry is a primary example of a sector which requires flexibility within both classroom architectural form and interior configuration. This is a resultant of the recently updated Ministry of Education requirements; which state that every new classroom built or renovated nationwide, must implement the MoE classroom design standards for Innovative Learning Environments.  ILE teaching spaces are configured as an open plan interior, supporting flexibility in classroom arrangement and teaching techniques. ILE classrooms are capable of evolving and adapting as educational practices evolve and change, allowing schools to remain modern and future focused.  As part of this movement to ILE, the Ministry of Education has also recently made an attempt to improve the quality of temporary classrooms. This has been done by looking into the initiation of a programme that utilizes relocatable classroom buildings. Relocatable classrooms have been selected for multiple reasons, primarily flexibility. Flexibility is key for a school environment as it allows the school to actively respond to fluctuating school rolls. It is anticipated that the programme will provide a faster delivery process with a standardised design that allows the classrooms to be relocated from one school to another with relative ease.  Following the devastating February 2011 earthquake the Greater Christchurch Region, the Education sector is in the midst of the Canterbury Schools Rebuild Programme. As a repercussion of this natural disaster, the majority of Christchurch schools have redevelopment or rebuild projects in progress, with preliminary design phases already in action for a small group of select schools regarded as high priority.  The primary funding for these projects are sourced from insurance money, implementing tight budget restrictions, affecting the architectural design, quality and speed of the construction and repair works. The available funding limits the affordable classroom options to basic teaching spaces that have been stripped back to simple architectural forms, dictating not only the re-design, but also how our future generations will learn. Thus causing the development of the new student-led learning ILE concept to become controlled by existing construction techniques and the Rebuild Programmes budget restrictions.  This thesis focuses on the future proofing of New Zealand schools by providing an affordable and time efficient alternative option to the current static, traditional construction, an option that has the ability to cater to the unpredictable fluctuating school rolls across the nation.  This has been done by developing a prefabricated system for standalone classroom blocks. These blocks have the ability to be relocated between different school sites, dynamically catering to the unpredictable school roll numbers experienced across New Zealand. This site flexibility is reflected with the interior flexibility in the classrooms, enhancing the internal teaching space composition and challenges the existing design standards set by the Ministry of Education for Innovative Learning Environments. This system is called “Flexi-Ed”.  Flexibility has been a key driver for this thesis, as the prefabricated structure is have to be flexible in three ways; first in the sense of being easy to assemble and disassemble. Second by offering flexible interior learning environments and thirdly the joints of the structure are designed with the ability to be flexible in order to cope with seismic activity. These three principles will provide schools with long term flexibility, minimal on-site interruption and heighten the standard of ILE across the nation.  I strive to provide schools with long term flexibility and minimal site interruption, whilst heightening the standard of Innovative Learning Environments across New Zealand.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

<strong>Natural disasters are often unpredictable and are happening frequently. Some natural disasters cause damage to communities, resulting in displaced individuals. Due to this there is a need for shelter, however, there are many unknown factors. These include unknown demographics, a strain on time, cost, and resources, and the unknown location. This study begins by identifying a lack of identity and personality in existing post-disaster shelter designs, including the example of Linwood Park from the Christchurch 2011 earthquake. Further research shows the lack of personalisation within shelters, along with addressing key requirements needed for shelters. While providing the basic needs is essential, this thesis also addresses how personalisation can impact a space. Taking bach architecture as a driver for a basic, yet unique approach to temporary accommodation, Lake Clearwater Settlement was used as a case study. Through surveys, interviews, and a reflective design process, the importance of embracing identity emerges as a key element in fostering dignity, livelihood, and a sense of self in displaced individuals.</strong>This thesis explores innovative approaches to post-disaster shelter design with a focus on accommodating the unique needs and individuality of displaced individuals. From challenging conventional shelter concepts to embracing self-design and community involvement, the research addresses the question of how interior and exterior features can cater to the diverse requirements of those affected by natural disasters.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We aim to investigate the role of insurance in business recovery following the devastating Christchurch earthquake in February, 22nd, 2011. We analyze data from two business surveys conducted after the earthquake to examine how insurance affected business operation in the aftermath of the earthquake both in the short-term and longer-term. For the short-term analysis, we use a combination of propensity score matching (PSM) and linear probability model (LPM) to analyze the data. We first estimate the propensity scores for insurance take-up of each firm conditional on the firm’s individual characteristics. Stratification based on the estimated propensity scores is used to match the treated (insured) and the control (uninsured) firms. We then estimate the probability of firms’ continuing operations with a set of control variables to account for the level of damage and disruption caused by the quake in each stratum. We find little evidence of any beneficial effect of insurance coverage on business continuity in the short-run. For the longer-term analysis, we analyze the available survey data using logistic regression. The result suggests that business interruption insurance significantly promotes increased level of long-term productivity for surviving firms following the earthquake.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

We measure the longer-term effect of a major earthquake on the local economy, using night-time light intensity measured from space, and investigate whether insurance claim payments for damaged residential property affected the local recovery process. We focus on the destructive Christchurch earthquake of 2011 as our case study. In this event more than 95% of residential housing units were covered by insurance, but insurance payments were staggered over 5 years, enabling us to identify their local impact. We find that night-time luminosity can capture the process of recovery and describe the recovery’s determinants. We also find that insurance payments contributed significantly to the process of economic recovery after the earthquake, but delayed payments were less affective and cash settlement of claims were more affective in contributing to local recovery than insurance-managed rebuilding.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Earthquakes are insured only with public sector involvement in high-income countries where the risk of earthquakes is perceived to be high. The proto-typical examples of this public sector involvement are the public earthquake insurance schemes in California, Japan, and New Zealand (NZ). Each of these insurance programs is structured differently, and the purpose of this paper is to examine these differences using a concrete case-study, the sequence of earthquakes that occurred in the Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2011. This event turned out to have been the most heavily insured earthquake event in history. We examine what would have been the outcome of the earthquakes had the system of insurance in NZ been different. In particular, we focus on the public earthquake insurance programs in California (the California Earthquake Authority - CEA), and in Japan (Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance - JER). Overall, the aggregate cost to the public insurer in NZ was $NZ 11.1 billion in its response to the earthquakes. If a similar-sized disaster event had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received $NZ 2.5 billion and $NZ 1.4 billion from the JER and CEA, respectively. We further describe the spatial and distributive patterns of these different scenarios.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Diverse Density proposes an alternative housing strategy to the idealistic top-down process of housing development.  The term ‘Top – down’ refers to a situation in which decisions are made by a few people in authority rather than by the people who are affected by the decisions (Cambridge).  Problems/Position/Question: New Zealand’s urban housing is in a period of flux. Pressures of densification have permitted the intervention of medium density housing development schemes but these are not always successful. These typically top-down processes often result in internally focused design schemes that do not adhere to their specific context. The subsequent design outcomes can cause detrimental impacts to the local, urban and architectural conditions.  With vast quantities of council regulations, building restrictions and design guidelines clouding over the housing sector, commonly referred to as ‘red tape’, occupant participation in the housing development sector is dwindling. A boundless separation between top-down and traditional housing processes has occurred and our existing neighbourhoods and historic architectural character are taking on the brunt of the problem. The thought-provoking, alternative housings strategies of key research theorists Alejandro Aravena and John Habraken frame positions that challenge contemporary densification methods with an alternative strategy.  This position is addressed by endeavoring to answer; How can demands for denser housing achieve dynamic design responses that adhere to changes in occupancy, function and local site conditions?  Aim: The aim of this thesis is to challenge New Zealand’s current housing densification methods by proposing an alternative densification strategy. Explicit devotion will be attributed to opposing top-down building developments. Secondly, this thesis aims to test a speculative site-specific housing model. The implementation of a Christchurch housing scenario will situate an investigative study to test the strategy and its ability to stimulate greater diversity, site responsiveness, functional adaptability and occupancy permutation. The post-earthquake housing conditions of Christchurch provide an appropriate scenario to test and implement design-led investigations.  Objectives: The primary objectives of this design-led research investigation it to challenge the idealistic top-down method of developing density with a new method to:  - Develop contextual architectural cohesion - Encourage residential diversity - Reinvigorate architectural autonomy - Respond to, and recognise, existing site conditions - Develop a housing model that: - Adapts to occupant functionality preferences - Caters to occupancy diversity - Achieves contextual responsiveness  The proposition is addressed through a speculative design-led scenario study. A well-established Christchurch urban environment is adopted to implement and critique the envisioned alternative strategy. Development of the designs responsiveness, adaptability, and functionality produce a prototype housing model that actively adheres to its particular context.  Implication: The implications of this research would be an alternative densification strategy to perceive the advancement of punctual assessment of building compliance. With accelerated building processes, the research may have implications for addressing New Zealand’s housing crisis whilst simultaneously providing diverse, personable and responsive architectural solutions. A more dynamic, up-to-date and responsive housing development sector would be informed.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Heritage buildings are an important element of our urban environments, representing the hope and aspirations of a generation gone, reminding us of our achievements and our identity.  When heritage buildings suffer damage, or fall into disrepair they are either met by one of two extremes; a bulldozer or painstaking repair. If the decision to conserve defeats the bulldozer, current heritage practice favours restoration into a mausoleum-type monument to yesteryear. But what if, rather than becoming a museum, these heritage buildings could live on and become a palimpsest of history? What if the damage was embraced and embodied in the repair?  The Cathedral of the Blessed Sacrament on Barbadoes Street, Christchurch is the case study building for this thesis. Suffering damage in the Canterbury earthquakes of 2010 and 2011, the Cathedral sits in ruin waiting for decisions to be made around how it can be retained for future generations.  This thesis will propose a reconstruction for the Cathedral through the analysis of precedent examples of reconstructing damaged heritage buildings and guided by a heritage framework proposed in this thesis. The employed process will be documented as an alternative method for reconstructing other damaged heritage buildings.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Measurement of basement seismic resonance frequencies can elucidate shallow velocity structure, an important factor in earthquake hazard estimation. Ambient noise cross correlation, which is well-suited to studying shallow earth structure, is commonly used to analyze fundamental-mode Rayleigh waves and, increasingly, Love waves. Here we show via multicomponent ambient noise cross correlation that the basement resonance frequency in the Canterbury region of New Zealand can be straightforwardly determined based on the horizontal to vertical amplitude ratio (H/V ratio) of the first higher-mode Rayleigh waves. At periods of 1-3 s, the first higher-mode is evident on the radial-radial cross-correlation functions but almost absent in the vertical-vertical cross-correlation functions, implying longitudinal motion and a high H/V ratio. A one-dimensional regional velocity model incorporating a ~ 1.5 km-thick sedimentary layer fits both the observed H/V ratio and Rayleigh wave group velocity. Similar analysis may enable resonance characteristics of other sedimentary basins to be determined. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Located on the edge of two tectonic plates, New Zealand has numerous fault lines and seismic risk across the whole country. The way this risk is communicated affects whether people prepare effectively or at all. Research has shown that perceptions of risk are affected by slight changes in wording, and that probabilities commonly reported by experts and media are often interpreted subjectively based on context. In the context of volcanoes, research has found that given a certain probability of a volcano in a specific time window, people perceive risk as higher in later time intervals within that window. The present study examines this pattern with regard to earthquakes and aftershocks in the New Zealand context. Participants in both Wellington (N = 102) and Christchurch (N = 98) were presented an expert statement of earthquake risk within a given time window in Wellington and aftershock risk in Christchurch, and asked to rate their perception of risk in specific intervals across the time window. For a Wellington earthquake, participants perceived risk as incrementally higher toward the end of the 50 year time window whereas for a Christchurch aftershock, risk perception increased slightly for the first three intervals of the 12 month time window. Likelihood of preparing was constant over the time windows, with Wellington citizens rating themselves more likely than Christchurch citizens to prepare for either an earthquake or aftershock, irrespective of current level of preparedness. These findings suggest that people view earthquakes as more likely later toward the end of a given time window and that they view aftershocks very differently to scientific predictions.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

The Canterbury earthquake sequence (2010-2011) was the most devastating catastrophe in New Zealand‘s modern history. Fortunately, in 2011 New Zealand had a high insurance penetration ratio, with more than 95% of residences being insured for these earthquakes. This dissertation sheds light on the functions of disaster insurance schemes and their role in economic recovery post-earthquakes.  The first chapter describes the demand and supply for earthquake insurance and provides insights about different public-private partnership earthquake insurance schemes around the world.  In the second chapter, we concentrate on three public earthquake insurance schemes in California, Japan, and New Zealand. The chapter examines what would have been the outcome had the system of insurance in Christchurch been different in the aftermath of the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES). We focus on the California Earthquake Authority insurance program, and the Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance scheme. Overall, the aggregate cost of the earthquake to the New Zealand public insurer (the Earthquake Commission) was USD 6.2 billion. If a similar-sized disaster event had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received only around USD 1.6 billion and USD 0.7 billion from the Japanese and Californian schemes, respectively. We further describe the spatial and distributive aspects of these scenarios and discuss some of the policy questions that emerge from this comparison.  The third chapter measures the longer-term effect of the CES on the local economy, using night-time light intensity measured from space, and focus on the role of insurance payments for damaged residential property during the local recovery process. Uniquely for this event, more than 95% of residential housing units were covered by insurance and almost all incurred some damage. However, insurance payments were staggered over 5 years, enabling us to identify their local impact. We find that night-time luminosity can capture the process of recovery; and that insurance payments contributed significantly to the process of local economic recovery after the earthquake. Yet, delayed payments were less affective in assisting recovery and cash settlement of claims were more effective than insurance-managed repairs.  After the Christchurch earthquakes, the government declared about 8000 houses as Red Zoned, prohibiting further developments in these properties, and offering the owners to buy them out. The government provided two options for owners: the first was full payment for both land and dwelling at the 2007 property evaluation, the second was payment for land, and the rest to be paid by the owner‘s insurance. Most people chose the second option. Using data from LINZ combined with data from Stats NZ, the fourth chapter empirically investigates what led people to choose this second option, and how peer effect influenced the homeowners‘ choices.  Due to climate change, public disclosure of coastal hazard information through maps and property reports have been used more frequently by local government. This is expected to raise awareness about disaster risks in local community and help potential property owners to make informed locational decision. However, media outlets and business sector argue that public hazard disclosure will cause a negative effect on property value. Despite this opposition, some district councils in New Zealand have attempted to implement improved disclosure. Kapiti Coast district in the Wellington region serves as a case study for this research. In the fifth chapter, we utilize the residential property sale data and coastal hazard maps from the local district council. This study employs a difference-in-difference hedonic property price approach to examine the effect of hazard disclosure on coastal property values. We also apply spatial hedonic regression methods, controlling for coastal amenities, as our robustness check. Our findings suggest that hazard designation has a statistically and economically insignificant impact on property values. Overall, the risk perception about coastal hazards should be more emphasized in communities.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

<b>New Zealand has experienced several strong earthquakes in its history. While an earthquake cannot be prevented from occurring, planning can reduce its consequences when it does occur. This dissertation research examines various aspects of disaster risk management policy in Aotearoa New Zealand.</b> Chapter 2 develops a method to rank and prioritise high-rise buildings for seismic retrofitting in Wellington, the earthquake-prone capital city of New Zealand. These buildings pose risks to Wellington’s long-term seismic resilience that are of clear concern to current and future policymakers. The prioritization strategy we propose, based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, considers a variety of data on each building, including not only its structural characteristics, but also its location, its economic value to the city, and its social importance to the community around it. The study demonstrates how different measures, within four general criteria – life safety, geo-spatial location of the building, its economic role, and its socio-cultural role – can be operationalized into a viable framework for determining retrofitting/demolition policy priorities. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 analyse the Residential Red Zone (RRR) program that was implemented in Christchurch after the 2011 earthquake. In the program, approximately 8,000 homeowners were told that their homes were no longer permittable, and they were bought by the government (through the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority). Chapter 3 examines the subjective wellbeing of the RRR residents (around 16000 people) after they were forced to move. We consider three indicators of subjective wellbeing: quality of life, stress, and emotional wellbeing. We found that demographic factors, health conditions, and the type of government compensation the residents accepted, were all significant determinants of the wellbeing of the Red Zone residents. More social relations, better financial circumstances, and the perception of better government communication were also all associated positively with a higher quality of life, less stress, and higher emotional wellbeing. Chapter 4 concentrates on the impact of this managed retreat program on RRR residents’ income. We use individual-level comprehensive, administrative, panel data from Canterbury, and difference in difference evaluation method to explore the effects of displacement on Red Zone residential residents. We found that compared to non-relocated neighbours, the displaced people experience a significant initial decrease in their wages and salaries, and their total income. The impacts vary with time spent in the Red Zone and when they moved away. Wages and salaries of those who were red-zoned and moved in 2011 were reduced by 8%, and 5.4% for those who moved in 2012. Females faced greater decreases in wages and salaries, and total income, than males. There were no discernible impacts of the relocation on people’s self-employment income.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

<b>Aotearoa has undoubtedly some of the most beautiful landscapes in the world, a privilege for its inhabitants. However, as our cities have developed post-colonisation, the connection between the natural environment and its occupants has diminished. Designers play a vital role within an ever evolving world to progress the built environment in a way that reflects and restores vital values that have been deprioritised. Future practice should prioritise diversity, care for the land, enhancement of community space, and sustainable practices.</b> This research sets out to demonstrate that new design methodologies can encourage kaitiakitanga, whilst meeting the needs of urban public space. Initially through critical analysis and literature based research, a study of Ōtautahi Christchurch, the South Island’s largest city, was undertaken. The principles of a ‘15 minute city’ were also explored and applied to the city, establishing issues within the built environment that drove the overall research direction. Through the tools of critical reflection and a research through design methodology, a design toolkit was constructed. This toolkit sets out to provide designers with a simple streamlined method of developing urban interventions that are sustainable and beneficial for human well-being. The toolkit incorporates an abstraction of the ‘15 minute city’ ideology and introduces the concepts of evolving green transportation routes within cities. Ōtautahi Christchurch, a city with a significant history of earthquake-caused damage, was chosen as the primary site for the application of this research’s proposed toolkit. The city becomes a canvas for an urban rebuild that explores and aims to set a precedent for a progressive 21st-century city. A key finding as the toolkit research developed was the idea of a ‘temporary’ phase or intervention, being added to traditional design methodologies prior to permanent building. The research explains how this temporary phase could more actively engage diverse user groups and create active conversations between communities and designers. The refined toolkit sets outs proposed timeline phases, methods of site analysis and development of design drivers. Alongside this, a modular architectural system establishes a design proposal for the temporary phase of an individual site within an evolving green route. This outcome provides further opportunity for realistic testing, which would actively involve communities and aims to shift our priorities within urban development. The introduction of the ‘temporary’ phase is beneficial in mitigating psychological implications on people and limiting physical impacts on the landscape. The final design stage of the thesis applied the toolkit process to three sites in Ōtautahi Christchurch. Through a holistic lens, the toolkit framework set out methods to collate information that provides guidance for development on the sites. While some layers are initiated simply by recognising site characteristics, others are informed through software such as GIS. Connected by a proposed green transport route, the three initial sites are developed with temporary interventions that utilise the modular design set out previously in the research. Contextualising the interventions on real world sites tested the flexibility of the system and allowed for critical reflection on the applicability of the toolkit to Aotearoa. The research concludes by identifying future research opportunities and speculates on possible applications of its findings within the real world. Temporary Permanence highlights the significant role that we, as designers, have in shifting urban priorities to create more holistic, sustainable, and inclusive cities for people and the planet.

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

<strong>Sea level rise is one consequence of Earth’s changing climate. Century-long tide gauge records show that global-mean sea-level rise reached 11-16 cm during the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.2 mm/y. Today, the average rate of global-mean sea-level rise is higher at 3-4 mm/y and is expected to increase in the future. This represents a hazard to low elevation coastal zones worldwide. Yet, before global sea level projections can be used to characterise future coastal flood hazard at a local scale, the effects of tectonics (and other processes) that drive vertical land motion (VLM) must be considered. VLM is defined as the vertical velocity (uplift or subsidence) of the solid surface with respect to the centre of Earth. In this study, new VLM maps are generated over coastal strips in New Zealand, using Sentinel-1 InSAR and GNSS data.</strong>In New Zealand, measuring VLM using InSAR on naturally vegetated or agricultural land is difficult due to signal decorrelation. Along the rural Bay of Plenty coastal strip, I use a persistent-scatterer approach to generate a VLM map from both east-looking ascending and west-looking descending Sentinel-1 data between 2015-2021. Using time-series data over the same time period from a dense network of 20 GNSS sensors, I tie InSAR-derived line-of-sight velocity to the 2014 ITRF reference frame. I test two different methods for measuring VLM and compare the results against GNSS vertical velocity along the Bay of Plenty coast. Best results are achieved by first removing the interpolated horizontal GNSS velocity field from each of the InSAR datasets, before averaging the two VLM estimates. Measured VLM is between -3 and 3 mm/y, with negative values (subsidence) occurring within the low-lying Rangitāiki Plain and Ōpōtiki valley, and uplift across the elevated region west of Matatā.This thesis integrates geomorphological, geological, and historical levelling VLM records with modern satellite datasets to assess VLM across timescales ranging from 10 to 100,000 years at Matatā. Uplift rate has been variable through time, with average uplift over the last 300,000 years of 1 mm/y, 4.5 mm/y since 1720 years, 2 mm/y between 1950-1978, and 10 mm/y between 2004-2011. Previous modelling has shown that the best fit to the 2004-2011 rapid uplift rates is an inflating magmatic source at ~10 km depth beneath Matatā. To reconcile all data, I present a VLM model that consists of short-lived periods (7 years) of rapid uplift (10 mm/y), separated by longer periods (30 years) of lower background uplift (3 mm/y). The episodic nature of VLM at Matatā likely reflects short-lived periods of magmatic intrusion. Episodic VLM characterised by large rates of uplift (10 mm/y) has been seen at Taupō volcano, and other volcanic centers globally. It has been 12 years since the end of the last intrusion episode; this modelling suggest one may expect to observe increased uplift rates at Matatā in the coming decades. Densely populated urban coastal strips are most at risk from the effects of relative sea-level rise. At the same time, anthropogenic activities associated with urbanization, such as groundwater withdrawal, and land reclamation can lead to local land subsidence (LLS), further exacerbating the risk to urban infrastructure. LLS refers to subsidence relative to nearby land area assumed to be stable. In this thesis, I create the first high-resolution (10 m) maps of LLS at six urban coastal strips in New Zealand, with a combined length of 285 km, using Sentinel-1 InSAR data between 2018-2021. This analysis reveals 89% of urban coastal strips are subsiding at rates of -0.5 mm/y or greater, and 11% is subsiding at higher rates of -3.0 mm/y or greater. On average, subsidence is -0.6 to -2.9 mm/y higher at the coastal strip, compared to inland areas occupied by GNSS stations. This analysis also documents highly-localised hotspots of LLS, with subsidence rates of up to -15 mm/y. In Christchurch, rapid and localised subsidence (-8 mm/y) is observed within coastal suburbs New Brighton and Southshore. In most cities, the highest subsidence rates occur on land reclaimed in the early-late twentieth century, and in areas built on Holocene sediment. Time-series analysis of LLS at sites of reclaimed land shows both linear and non-linear rates of deformation over time periods of up to 6-8 years. This thesis highlights the variable exposure to relative sea-level rise of New Zealand coastal strips, and demonstrates that in many cases current rates of VLM should be expected to continue for the next few decades.