The Amuri Earthquake of September 1, 1888 (magnitude M = 6.5 to 6.8) occurred on the Hope River Segment of the Hope Fault west of Hanmer Plains. The earthquake was felt strongly in North Canterbury and North Westland and caused considerable property damage and landsliding in the Lower Hope Valley. However, damage reports and the spatial distribution of felt intensities emphasize extreme variations in seismic effects over short distances, probably due to topographic focusing and local ground conditions. Significant variations in lateral fault displacement occurred at secondary fault segment boundaries (side-steps and bends in the fault trace) during the 1888 earthquake. This historical spatial variation in lateral slip is matched by the Late Quaternary geomorphic distribution of slip on the Hope River Segment of the Hope Fault. Trenching studies at two sites on the Hope Fault have also identified evidence for five pre-historic earthquakes of similar magnitude to the 1888 earthquake and an average recurrence interval of 134 ± 27 years between events. Magnitude estimates for the 1888 earthquake are combined with a. strong ground motion attenuation expression to provide an estimate of potential ground accelerations in Amuri District during-future earthquakes on the Hope River Segment of the Hope Fault. The predicted acceleration response on bedrock sites within 20 km of the epicentral region is between 0.23 g and 0.34 g. The close match between the historic, inferred pre-historic and geomorphic distribution of lateral slip indicates that secondary fault segmentation exerts a strong structural control on rupture propagation and the expression of fault displacement at the surface. In basement rocks at depth the spatial variations in slip are inferred to be distributed within zones of pervasive cataclastic shear, on either side of the fault segment boundaries. The large variations in surface displacement across fault segment boundaries means that one must know the geometry of the fault in order to evaluate slip-rates calculated from individual locations. The average Late Quaternary slip-rate on the Hope Fault at Glynn Wye Station is between 15.5 mm/yr and 18.25 mm/yr and the rate on the subsidiary Kakapo Fault is between 5.0 mm/yr and 7.5 mm/yr. These rates have been determined from sites which are relatively free of structural complication.
Recent surface-rupturing earthquakes in New Zealand have highlighted significant exposure and vulnerability of the road network to fault displacement. Understanding fault displacement hazard and its impact on roads is crucial for mitigating risks and enhancing resilience. There is a need for regional-scale assessments of fault displacement to identify vulnerable areas within the road network for the purposes of planning and prioritising site-specific investigations. This thesis employs updated analysis of data from three historical surface-rupturing earthquakes (Edgecumbe 1987, Darfield 2010, and Kaikoūra 2016) to develop an empirical model that addresses the gap in regional fault displacement hazard analysis. The findings contribute to understanding of • How to use seismic hazard model inputs for regional fault displacement hazard analysis • How faulting type and sediment cover affects the magnitude and spatial distribution of fault displacement • How the distribution of displacement and regional fault displacement hazard is impacted by secondary faulting • The inherent uncertainties and limitations associated with employing an empirical approach at a regional scale • Which sections of New Zealand’s roading network are most susceptible to fault displacement hazard and warrant site-specific investigations • Which regions should prioritise updating emergency management plans to account for post-event disruptions to roading. I used displacement data from the aforementioned historical ruptures to generate displacement versus distance-to-fault curves for various displacement components, fault types, and geological characteristics. Using those relationships and established relationships for along-strike displacement, displacement contours were generated surrounding active faults within the NZ Community Fault Model. Next, I calculated a new measure of 1D strain along roads as well as relative hazard, which integrated 1D strain and normalised slip rate data. Summing these values at the regional level identified areas of heightened relative hazard across New Zealand, and permits an assessment of the susceptibility of road networks using geomorphon land classes as proxies for vulnerability. The results reveal that fault-parallel displacements tend to localise near the fault plane, while vertical and fault-perpendicular displacements sustain over extended distances. Notably, no significant disparities were observed in off-fault displacement between the hanging wall and footwall sides of the fault, or among different surface geology types, potentially attributed to dataset biases. The presence of secondary faulting in the dataset contributes to increased levels of tectonic displacement farther from the fault, highlighting its significance in hazard assessments. Furthermore, fault displacement contours delineate broader zones around dip-slip faults compared to strike-slip faults, with correlations identified between fault length and displacement width. Road ‘strain’ values are higher around dip-slip faults, with notable examples observed in the Westland and Buller Districts. As expected, relative hazard analysis revealed elevated values along faults with high slip rates, notably along the Alpine Fault. A regional-scale analysis of hazard and exposure reveals heightened relative hazard in specific regions, including Wellington, Southern Hawke’s Bay, Central Bay of Plenty, Central West Coast, inland Canterbury, and the Wairau Valley of Marlborough. Notably, the Central West Coast exhibits the highest summed relative hazard value, attributed to the fast-slipping Alpine Fault. The South Island generally experiences greater relative hazard due to larger and faster-slipping faults compared to the North Island, despite having fewer roads. Central regions of New Zealand face heightened risk compared to Southern or Northern regions. Critical road links intersecting high-slipping faults, such as State Highways 6, 73, 1, and 2, necessitate prioritisation for site-specific assessments, emergency management planning and targeted mitigation strategies. Roads intersecting with the Alpine Fault are prone to large parallel displacements, requiring post-quake repair efforts. Mitigation strategies include future road avoidance of nearby faults, modification of road fill and surface material, and acknowledgement of inherent risk, leading to prioritised repair efforts of critical roads post-quake. Implementing these strategies enhances emergency response efforts by improving accessibility to isolated regions following a major surface-rupturing event, facilitating faster supply delivery and evacuation assistance. This thesis contributes to the advancement of understanding fault displacement hazard by introducing a novel regional, empirical approach. The methods and findings highlight the importance of further developing such analyses and extending them to other critical infrastructure types exposed to fault displacement hazard in New Zealand. Enhancing our comprehension of the risks associated with fault displacement hazard offers valuable insights into various mitigation strategies for roading infrastructure and informs emergency response planning, thereby enhancing both national and global infrastructure resilience against geological hazards.
