Prognostic modelling provides an efficient means to analyse the coastal environment and provide effective knowledge for long term urban planning. This paper outlines how the use of SWAN and Xbeach numerical models within the ESRI ArcGIS interface can simulate geomorphological evolution through hydrodynamic forcing for the Greater Christchurch coastal environment. This research followed the data integration techniques of Silva and Taborda (2012) and utilises their beach morphological modelling tool (BeachMM tool). The statutory requirements outlined in the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement 2010 were examined to determine whether these requirements are currently being complied with when applying the recent sea level rise predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), and it would appear that it does not meet those requirements. This is because coastal hazard risk has not been thoroughly quantified by the installation of the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) residential red zone. However, the Christchurch City Council’s (CCC) flood management area does provide an extent to which managed coastal retreat is a real option. This research assessed the effectiveness of the prognostic models, forecasted a coastline for 100 years from now, and simulated the physical effects of extreme events such as storm surge given these future predictions. The results of this research suggest that progradation will continue to occur along the Christchurch foreshore due to the net sediment flux retaining an onshore direction and the current hydrodynamic activity not being strong enough to move sediment offshore. However, inundation during periods of storm surge poses a risk to human habitation on low lying areas around the Avon-Heathcote Estuary and the Brooklands lagoon similar to the CCC’s flood management area. There are complex interactions at the Waimakariri River mouth with very high rates of accretion and erosion within a small spatial scale due to the river discharge. There is domination of the marine environment over the river system determined by the lack of generation of a distinct river delta, and river channel has not formed within the intertidal zone clearly. The Avon-Heathcote ebb tidal delta aggrades on the innner fan and erodes on the outer fan due to wave domination. The BeachMM tool facilitates the role of spatial and temporal analysis effectively and the efficiency of that performance is determined by the computational operating system.
Tree mortality is a fundamental process governing forest dynamics, but understanding tree mortality patterns is challenging
because large, long-term datasets are required. Describing size-specific mortality patterns can be especially difficult, due to
few trees in larger size classes. We used permanent plot data from Nothofagus solandri var. cliffortioides (mountain beech)
forest on the eastern slopes of the Southern Alps, New Zealand, where the fates of trees on 250 plots of 0.04 ha were
followed, to examine: (1) patterns of size-specific mortality over three consecutive periods spanning 30 years, each
characterised by different disturbance, and (2) the strength and direction of neighbourhood crowding effects on sizespecific
mortality rates. We found that the size-specific mortality function was U-shaped over the 30-year period as well as
within two shorter periods characterised by small-scale pinhole beetle and windthrow disturbance. During a third period,
characterised by earthquake disturbance, tree mortality was less size dependent. Small trees (,20 cm in diameter) were
more likely to die, in all three periods, if surrounded by a high basal area of larger neighbours, suggesting that sizeasymmetric
competition for light was a major cause of mortality. In contrast, large trees ($20 cm in diameter) were more
likely to die in the first period if they had few neighbours, indicating that positive crowding effects were sometimes
important for survival of large trees. Overall our results suggest that temporal variability in size-specific mortality patterns,
and positive interactions between large trees, may sometimes need to be incorporated into models of forest dynamics.
Natural hazards continue to have adverse effects on communities and households worldwide, accelerating research on proactively identifying and enhancing characteristics associated with resilience. Although resilience is often characterized as a return to normal, recent studies of postdisaster recovery have highlighted the ways in which new opportunities can emerge following disruption, challenging the status quo. Conversely, recovery and reconstruction may serve to reinforce preexisting social, institutional, and development pathways. Our understanding of these dynamics is limited however by the small number of practice examples, particularly for rural communities in developed nations. This study uses a social–ecological inventory to document the drivers, pathways, and mechanisms of resilience following a large-magnitude earthquake in Kaikōura, a coastal community in Aotearoa New Zealand. As part of the planning and implementation phase of a multiyear project, we used the tool as the basis for indepth and contextually sensitive analysis of rural resilience. Moreover, the deliberate application of social–ecological inventory was the first step in the research team reengaging with the community following the event. The inventory process provided an opportunity for research partners to share their stories and experiences and develop a shared understanding of changes that had taken place in the community. Results provide empirical insight into reactions to disruptive change associated with disasters. The inventory also informed the design of targeted research collaborations, established a platform for longer-term community engagement, and provides a baseline for assessing longitudinal changes in key resilience-related characteristics and community capacities. Findings suggest the utility of social–ecological inventory goes beyond natural resource management, and that it may be appropriate in a range of contexts where institutional, social, and economic restructuring have developed out of necessity in response to felt or anticipated external stressors.
