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Research Papers, Lincoln University

The Project Team were: Simon Wallace (TIA), David Simmons (Lincoln University), Susanne Becken (Lincoln University)The State of the Tourism Sector report is published annually.The Tourism Industry Association of New Zealand’s (TIA) annual State of the Sector 2011 has been prepared in partnership with Lincoln University. The objective of this is to understand better how the tourism sector sees its future and what challenges and opportunities lie ahead in both the short and longer term. State of Sector 2011, alongside the ongoing series of TIA Insights and other consultations that TIA is undertaking in its research work programme, is aimed at informing participants at the Tourism Summit taking place in Wellington on 13 July 2011. This information is a key driver in assisting with the development of the 2011 Tourism Industry Election Manifesto. State of the Sector 2011 also ultimately provides a current view of the tourism sector for those within the industry and for external stakeholders who have an interest in tourism in New Zealand.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

The Tourism Industry Association New Zealand’s (TIA) annual State of the Tourism Sector 2012 has been prepared in partnership with Lincoln University. The objective of this is to understand better how the tourism sector sees its future and what challenges and opportunities lie ahead in both the short and longer term. State of the Tourism Sector 2012 provides a current view of the tourism sector for those within the industry and for external stakeholders who have an interest in tourism in New Zealand.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Oarai is a coastal town in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. The disaster severely damaged local industries, and the local tourism sector faced a sharp decline followed the event. To overcome the conundrum, the local tourism businesses have taken the opportunity to collaborate with an anime called Girls und Panzer, which has been developed by an external animation production studio. This collaboration has resulted in huge success, and the drop in the local tourism industry had been largely reversed, but has resulted in a significant change to the tourism system. This thesis explores the activities and outcomes of this tourism industry reimagining. A mixed-method approach was used to investigate the perception of local tourism businesses to the current Oarai tourism system, and examine the transformative effect of the disaster and its aftermath. Perceptions of disaster impact and anime tourism development were analysed through surveys (n=73) and interviews (n=2) which focused on tourism business operators, while participant observation was conducted to create the image of anime tourism operation in Oarai. Results show that the development of anime tourism in Oarai successfully helped the local tourism businesses to recover from the disaster. As new agencies and organisations joined the anime tourism network, anime tourism increased communication between stakeholders, and improved the resilience of the community. The new tourism development has transformed the local tourism industry, to some extent, however. the future trajectory of anime tourism in Oarai is difficult to forecast, and there is scope for longitudinal research of this tourism system.

Research Papers, Lincoln University

Prognostic modelling provides an efficient means to analyse the coastal environment and provide effective knowledge for long term urban planning. This paper outlines how the use of SWAN and Xbeach numerical models within the ESRI ArcGIS interface can simulate geomorphological evolution through hydrodynamic forcing for the Greater Christchurch coastal environment. This research followed the data integration techniques of Silva and Taborda (2012) and utilises their beach morphological modelling tool (BeachMM tool). The statutory requirements outlined in the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement 2010 were examined to determine whether these requirements are currently being complied with when applying the recent sea level rise predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), and it would appear that it does not meet those requirements. This is because coastal hazard risk has not been thoroughly quantified by the installation of the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) residential red zone. However, the Christchurch City Council’s (CCC) flood management area does provide an extent to which managed coastal retreat is a real option. This research assessed the effectiveness of the prognostic models, forecasted a coastline for 100 years from now, and simulated the physical effects of extreme events such as storm surge given these future predictions. The results of this research suggest that progradation will continue to occur along the Christchurch foreshore due to the net sediment flux retaining an onshore direction and the current hydrodynamic activity not being strong enough to move sediment offshore. However, inundation during periods of storm surge poses a risk to human habitation on low lying areas around the Avon-Heathcote Estuary and the Brooklands lagoon similar to the CCC’s flood management area. There are complex interactions at the Waimakariri River mouth with very high rates of accretion and erosion within a small spatial scale due to the river discharge. There is domination of the marine environment over the river system determined by the lack of generation of a distinct river delta, and river channel has not formed within the intertidal zone clearly. The Avon-Heathcote ebb tidal delta aggrades on the innner fan and erodes on the outer fan due to wave domination. The BeachMM tool facilitates the role of spatial and temporal analysis effectively and the efficiency of that performance is determined by the computational operating system.